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NFT: Mets Minors 5/4/2016- Big Day for the big names

DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 9:22 am
Today-
AAA- Montero
AA-Pill
A+ TBD
A Conlon


AAA-

Herrera 4-6, 2 HR and 3b, dayum. Back must be healed up.
Nimmo 2-5, 2b, BB
Rivera 2-3, HR, 2 BB
Cecchini 3-5, K (really heating up)


AA
Smith 3-6, HR
(Not being lazy but that roster stinks, he's the only one of note in the lineup)


A+
Flexen 5.1 innings 8 hits 4 runs 3 walks 5 k's (I'm not that enamored with him)
McGowan (quietly been very good out of the pen) 1.2 innings 2 hits 1 run 0 earned 0 walks 2 k's
Becerra 2-4 (hitting .474 over his last 10 games, not being nitpicky but again last 73 games he's homered once. Average is amazing but I'd like to know where the power has gone?)
Rosario 1-4
Guillorme 0-4, K (pretty ugly season with the bat so far)
Nido 0-4, 2 k's
Stuart 2-3, 3b, SB
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RE: RE: I  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:08 am : link
In comment 12944278 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 12944244 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


just can't get excited about Nimmo with literally 0 power. His career line in AAA now spans 53 games where he has hit a whopping 3 homers with 8 doubles hitting .266. He doesn't offer speed and he "might" be passable in CF aka he's not a defensive dynamo. Every year we say "wait until next year". Since opening day 2015 (125 games) he's hit 5 homers with 16 doubles



Now I have to caveat this with I'm not comparing the two, but Tony Gwynn made the HOF as a corner OFer with little power. So don't cite me Tony Gwynn did x and z, he's an example and there are probably more.

has baseball changed that much that a Gwynn-like prospect isn't a prospect you would like because he doesn't project to a power-hitting corner OFer. Plus, as noted there is still a chance Nimmo remains in CF.

If the guy is going to be on-base at a .380 clip with good speed and good defense, make him your leadoff hitter and get your power elsewhere. Or even make him your #2 hitter if he has a .380 OBP and doesn't K a ton.

I wouldn't dismiss him b/c of a lack of power...IF...the other tools are there. and just an example, but Dustin Pedroia had almost no power in the minors. His power didn't develop until he reached the majors and turned 24/25.


PJ,
Good luck finding .380 OBP players who don't have power and don't have significant speed. Tony Gwynn was an absolute PHENOM from day 1. He hit .375 with a 28/28 k/bb ratio his first professional season adding 16 homers and 22 steals in only 65 games. Brandon Nimmo has a .369 OBP at AAA, while striking out over 20% of his Ab's in the best hitters league/park around. There is absolutely nothing to suggest he'd be able to post a high OBP given his skillset/flaws. He's known as a guy who simply takes a lot of pitches and is overly passive. That doesn't work in the bigs.
Also  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:09 am : link
"good speed" is just no longer the case with Nimmo. He has 20 total steals since opening day 2014 and since opening day 2015 6 steals, 9 times caught. Speed is not part of his game. How many current players strike out a lot, don't hit for power or speed but get on base a lot? The list would be minuscule.
Well to be fair  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 10:11 am : link
Nimmo started off ice cold. He JUST started hitting the last week and his OBP is up to .369.

Either way, I agree. Nimmo is a long shot at this point. Im not throwing in the towel though until I see a full year in Vegas.
Using  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:14 am : link
2015 as an example. There were 7 players who posted .380 OBP or higher, all are superstars so I won't even bother with them. 19 players posted an OBP .370 or higher 4 of these players struck out in at least 20% of their ab's like Nimmo (in the bigs no less) they hit 42, 33, 41 and 22 homers. .360 or greater with less than 15 homers while striking out 20% of their ab's? Those 4 and Christian Yelich. That's it.
I didn't say don't have significant speed  
pjcas18 : 5/4/2016 10:14 am : link
as said do have speed.

Nimmo's career OBP in the minors is .379.

it's been pretty consistent through all levels close to that mark.

And I just said don't cite Tony Gwynn stats and it's the first thing you do LOL. I use him as an example where a player does not HAVE to have power to play corner OF - and that assumes Nimmo doesn't stick in CF.

Yes, ideally you'd want them to be a 20 - 25 minimum HR guy, but if he's your leadoff hitter or #2 I think he's got a place on my team.

Lastly, as I mentioned there are other cases of players who are perennial all-stars (like Pedroia) who developed power as they aged, but had little to none in the minors even at the same age as Nimmo.

RE: Well to be fair  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:18 am : link
In comment 12944300 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Nimmo started off ice cold. He JUST started hitting the last week and his OBP is up to .369.

Either way, I agree. Nimmo is a long shot at this point. Im not throwing in the towel though until I see a full year in Vegas.


Context. .369 OBP is good for 21st in the PCL. His 81 wRC+ would rank 9th worst in the entire PCL if he had enough ab's. That's of all players, 9th worst. His .312 slugg would rank dead last if he had enough ab's, the least power of any player in the entire league. We have this "argument" every year but if we are going to yell "PCL PCL PCL!!! and LV LV LV!!!:" for the struggling pitchers... why not for the hitters?
No  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:21 am : link
offense but Tony Gwynn was such an extreme case I'm not even sure how he's relevant. How about some examples of guys you think he can be vs. todays players? Nimmo has a career .388 slugging % (.376 in hitters heaven LV), Pedroia (your example) slugged .452 in the minors
.  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:23 am : link
@pjconlon29 is 22 years old, 1 walk over 4 starts vs. 18 k's. 2-3 more like this and I think it's time to test him #Mets
From before the season but still relevant  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:25 am : link
Quote:
The athleticism that he had as an amateur has predictably dwindled somewhat. He's still able to play center, but his speed has eroded from above average in Alex's report to average in 2015. His reads and routes in center are also average, so if he loses any more speed, he will have to move to a corner. And given his history of knee injuries, including one that sidelined him in 2015, it seems likely a corner will end up being his long-term home.

If he is to move to a corner, the bat is going to have to play up from its current level. When Nimmo was drafted, it was noted that his swing was going to take some work. Since then he's made several tweaks, most recently last offseason, and is now talking about making more changes this offseason. The results of his swing change last year were not great. He struggled in his return to Double-A, particularly in the power department, where he hit the second of his two homers on April 14 and then didn't homer again in the rest of his 276 plate appearances there. Things seemed to turn around a bit after he was promoted to Triple-A, as he hit for more power and got back to his walking ways with 18 walks in 112 plate appearances. Of course, we have to take those numbers with a grain of salt because it's Vegas and the Pacific Coast League, but it was still encouraging to see him have some success at the highest level of the minors after muddling through much of the season.

Any scouting report you read on Nimmo these days will praise him for his ability to get into hitter's counts but then scold him for being too passive in those counts. I can't say I disagree with those assessments. When you watch Nimmo's at-bats he's consistently ahead in counts but will inevitably watch a couple pitches go by until he has two strikes. He'll then frequently put a defensive swing on a pitch that leads to weak contact. Nimmo's not afraid to go to two strikes, but I think he lacks the elite bat speed he would need to do damage on those two-strike swings. What you would like to see, and I think it can be done, is for him to get more aggressive ahead in the count and stop being too selective. It could end up being the difference between becoming the next Josh Satin or a competent major leaguer.

Link - ( New Window )
RE: No  
pjcas18 : 5/4/2016 10:26 am : link
In comment 12944338 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
offense but Tony Gwynn was such an extreme case I'm not even sure how he's relevant. How about some examples of guys you think he can be vs. todays players? Nimmo has a career .388 slugging % (.376 in hitters heaven LV), Pedroia (your example) slugged .452 in the minors


Ellsbury or Gardner, whoever is not playing CF. Granted Nimmo doesn't have the steal tool Ellsbury does, and Ellsbury has the one anomaly year, but he's not living up to his contract, but that's irrelevant.

Some examples for me  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 10:27 am : link
going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.

Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.
RE: I really dont know how any of our 1st round guys are going  
Optimus-NY : 5/4/2016 10:28 am : link
In comment 12944275 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
to fit to be honest. With Rosario exploding and seemingly the best prospect in our system what becomes of Cheech? Maybe 3B? Backup utility guy? Nimmo 4th OF? Smith needs to hit a TON more HR for me before I want him ever replacing Duda. What happens to Smith if we extend Duda?


They're gonna let Duda walk, as they should since Smith is gonna be ready for the bigs in 2018. It's lined up perfectly: Duda is a FA after the 2017 season, when Smith will have completed his year at AAA.
and my sweet spot for Nimmo  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 10:28 am : link
Would actually be 10-15 HR. More than those guys.
RE: RE: No  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:31 am : link
In comment 12944347 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 12944338 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


offense but Tony Gwynn was such an extreme case I'm not even sure how he's relevant. How about some examples of guys you think he can be vs. todays players? Nimmo has a career .388 slugging % (.376 in hitters heaven LV), Pedroia (your example) slugged .452 in the minors



Ellsbury or Gardner, whoever is not playing CF. Granted Nimmo doesn't have the steal tool Ellsbury does, and Ellsbury has the one anomaly year, but he's not living up to his contract, but that's irrelevant.


Gardner was maybe the best defensive player in the entire league in his prime. He was THAT good, he also stole a million bases. You think Gardner minus elite speed and defense would have been the Yankees starting LF?
RE: Some examples for me  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:34 am : link
In comment 12944349 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.

Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.


If I told you the Mets signed Yunel Escobar, Markakis or Cervelli to be our LF how would you react? PJ is arguing pro-Nimmo's ability to be a starting corner OF. Kipnis shouldn't even be in this discussion because he hit 43 doubles with 7 triples so his lack of homers is irrelevant. Obviously if Nimmo had 59 extra base hits per season we would sign for it. His career HIGH in doubles is 21... in 2014.
RE: Some examples for me  
Jay on the Island : 5/4/2016 10:35 am : link
In comment 12944349 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.

Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.

Yeah but you have two second basemen and a catcher. Markakis was a plus 10 HR guy until his neck surgery. Trust me you do not want a player with no power in a corner OF spot unless your CF has great power to pick up the slack.
Jason  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:37 am : link
Kipnis last season .303 with a .372 OBP with 43 doubles, 7 triples, 9 homers, 12 steals. That was good for the 25th best overall season in baseball last year in offensive score. If Nimmo were cracking doubles all over the field, then yeah sure. He's hit 21 doubles over his last 125 games, and has 8 in the PCL (53 games).
RE: RE: I really dont know how any of our 1st round guys are going  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 10:37 am : link
In comment 12944350 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
In comment 12944275 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


to fit to be honest. With Rosario exploding and seemingly the best prospect in our system what becomes of Cheech? Maybe 3B? Backup utility guy? Nimmo 4th OF? Smith needs to hit a TON more HR for me before I want him ever replacing Duda. What happens to Smith if we extend Duda?



They're gonna let Duda walk, as they should since Smith is gonna be ready for the bigs in 2018. It's lined up perfectly: Duda is a FA after the 2017 season, when Smith will have completed his year at AAA.


I don't think we know that yet. Performances will dictate that. If anything, this year has taught us the Mets will NOT just hand over positions to prospects.
RE: RE: Some examples for me  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 10:38 am : link
In comment 12944368 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 12944349 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.

Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.


Yeah but you have two second basemen and a catcher. Markakis was a plus 10 HR guy until his neck surgery. Trust me you do not want a player with no power in a corner OF spot unless your CF has great power to pick up the slack.


That's virtually exactly what I just said.
No  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:39 am : link
power, no speed CO's you are looking at guys like David DeJesus on the high end (that's offensively as DeJesus was a plus defensive OF), or David Murphy (whom I think Nimmo's upside likely lies).
RE: RE: Some examples for me  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 10:39 am : link
In comment 12944366 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 12944349 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.

Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.



If I told you the Mets signed Yunel Escobar, Markakis or Cervelli to be our LF how would you react? PJ is arguing pro-Nimmo's ability to be a starting corner OF. Kipnis shouldn't even be in this discussion because he hit 43 doubles with 7 triples so his lack of homers is irrelevant. Obviously if Nimmo had 59 extra base hits per season we would sign for it. His career HIGH in doubles is 21... in 2014.


Ok then both of us are making different points. I've said repeatedly it could work in CF, not a corner.
This  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 10:41 am : link
kid has the best CB I've ever seen in my years watching the minors. He may end up a major bust the break is seriously the most impressive I've seen (keep in mind I never saw guys like Kershaw in the minors)
Link - ( New Window )
RE: This  
Jay on the Island : 5/4/2016 10:57 am : link
In comment 12944384 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
kid has the best CB I've ever seen in my years watching the minors. He may end up a major bust the break is seriously the most impressive I've seen (keep in mind I never saw guys like Kershaw in the minors) Link - ( New Window )

Dan I will try to find a video of another one of Touki's curveballs from a couple of weeks ago. It is insane.
Here Dan  
Jay on the Island : 5/4/2016 10:59 am : link
scroll down a bit.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: Some examples for me  
pjcas18 : 5/4/2016 11:01 am : link
In comment 12944366 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 12944349 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.

Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.



If I told you the Mets signed Yunel Escobar, Markakis or Cervelli to be our LF how would you react? PJ is arguing pro-Nimmo's ability to be a starting corner OF. Kipnis shouldn't even be in this discussion because he hit 43 doubles with 7 triples so his lack of homers is irrelevant. Obviously if Nimmo had 59 extra base hits per season we would sign for it. His career HIGH in doubles is 21... in 2014.


I'm only saying that merely a lack of HR power (which is what you mention next to every Nimmo box score reference) is not a reason to say he's a non-prospect.

Other corner OFers have had successful careers without a HR tool. Additionally I mentioned Nimmo may still develop satisfactory power.
RE: Here Dan  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 11:02 am : link
In comment 12944423 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
scroll down a bit. Link - ( New Window )


Thanks Jay. Yeah, I don't claim to be a scout or anything even close to the sort so my "take" on a great breaking ball is all about the break so take it with a grain of salt but his CB sure looks pretty incredible even in the context of watching other top arms throw them. On video obviously Gooden's was insane and Kershaw throws a few that almost defy gravity. Rich Hill's is pretty nasty too.
RE: RE: RE: Some examples for me  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 11:03 am : link
In comment 12944430 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 12944366 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


In comment 12944349 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.

Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.



If I told you the Mets signed Yunel Escobar, Markakis or Cervelli to be our LF how would you react? PJ is arguing pro-Nimmo's ability to be a starting corner OF. Kipnis shouldn't even be in this discussion because he hit 43 doubles with 7 triples so his lack of homers is irrelevant. Obviously if Nimmo had 59 extra base hits per season we would sign for it. His career HIGH in doubles is 21... in 2014.



I'm only saying that merely a lack of HR power (which is what you mention next to every Nimmo box score reference) is not a reason to say he's a non-prospect.

Other corner OFers have had successful careers without a HR tool. Additionally I mentioned Nimmo may still develop satisfactory power.


I will mention it in regard to Nimmo because it's relevant. His lack of power (including doubles) means his numbers in context of the league are absolutely awful regardless of the position. Should I not mention it? I mention when a guy goes 3-3 with a homer "he's on fire" but if someone is seriously deficient (again his wRC+ is 81... league average hitter is 100) shouldn't that be mentioned too?
Nimmo  
Vanzetti : 5/4/2016 11:04 am : link
You hope he can be a 4th OFer. Maybe a guy who gets 40 starts in CF in a semi-platoon with Lagares.

They should keep him in CF because he has almost no value as a corner OFer.

That said, he is still young and so you hope he can develop. But I would say the chances are about 95% that he is nothing more than a 4th OFer--and he has get better to reach that level.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Some examples for me  
pjcas18 : 5/4/2016 11:06 am : link
In comment 12944441 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 12944430 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 12944366 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


In comment 12944349 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.

Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.



If I told you the Mets signed Yunel Escobar, Markakis or Cervelli to be our LF how would you react? PJ is arguing pro-Nimmo's ability to be a starting corner OF. Kipnis shouldn't even be in this discussion because he hit 43 doubles with 7 triples so his lack of homers is irrelevant. Obviously if Nimmo had 59 extra base hits per season we would sign for it. His career HIGH in doubles is 21... in 2014.



I'm only saying that merely a lack of HR power (which is what you mention next to every Nimmo box score reference) is not a reason to say he's a non-prospect.

Other corner OFers have had successful careers without a HR tool. Additionally I mentioned Nimmo may still develop satisfactory power.



I will mention it in regard to Nimmo because it's relevant. His lack of power (including doubles) means his numbers in context of the league are absolutely awful regardless of the position. Should I not mention it? I mention when a guy goes 3-3 with a homer "he's on fire" but if someone is seriously deficient (again his wRC+ is 81... league average hitter is 100) shouldn't that be mentioned too?


You can mention whatever you want, he's suffered through injuries and was raw coming in. And he could just be a bust, he may never develop into even a 4th OFer or see a major league roster.

However, not hitting HR's may not be the reason, in fact it might have nothing to do with it.
RE: RE: Here Dan  
Jay on the Island : 5/4/2016 11:10 am : link
In comment 12944433 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 12944423 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


scroll down a bit. Link - ( New Window )



Thanks Jay. Yeah, I don't claim to be a scout or anything even close to the sort so my "take" on a great breaking ball is all about the break so take it with a grain of salt but his CB sure looks pretty incredible even in the context of watching other top arms throw them. On video obviously Gooden's was insane and Kershaw throws a few that almost defy gravity. Rich Hill's is pretty nasty too.

You don't have to be a scout to know that is an insane break on a curveball. If this kid learns control, which is a big if, he will be a dominant ace. He is so raw though I think he has an extremely high bust rate. At worst he should be a great closer. Everyone calls the Shelby Miller trade an absolute steal for Atlanta but if Toussaint work out he could be an even bigger steal.
But  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 11:10 am : link
why just "HR power"? He's also not hitting doubles. That's the point. Pedroia hit 30 doubles while hitting .305 with 3 triples, 5 homers 111 games, while walking 48 times and striking out 27) in a neutral league in AAA in his age 22 season. Nimmo now has 12 total extra base hits in 53 games at the level, with 26 walks vs. 39 k's hitting .266.

Final note on Pedroia and Nimmo

2006 (Pedroia's age 22 season) he finished 13th in wOBA and 13th in wRC+ as well as 3rd in OBP and 33rd in slugging. So at the same stage Pedroia was already standing out as a potential very good player among his peers.
Michael  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 11:13 am : link
Conforto 133 minor league games 52 extra base hits (34 doubles), Brandon Nimmo 441 minor league games (so more than triple) 124 extra base hits, 78 doubles.
Rivera  
Giants : 5/4/2016 11:17 am : link
has hit at every level. Its time for the Mets to give him his chance
RE: But  
pjcas18 : 5/4/2016 11:18 am : link
In comment 12944456 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
why just "HR power"? He's also not hitting doubles. That's the point. Pedroia hit 30 doubles while hitting .305 with 3 triples, 5 homers 111 games, while walking 48 times and striking out 27) in a neutral league in AAA in his age 22 season. Nimmo now has 12 total extra base hits in 53 games at the level, with 26 walks vs. 39 k's hitting .266.

Final note on Pedroia and Nimmo

2006 (Pedroia's age 22 season) he finished 13th in wOBA and 13th in wRC+ as well as 3rd in OBP and 33rd in slugging. So at the same stage Pedroia was already standing out as a potential very good player among his peers.


I mention HR's only because you mention him not hitting HR's, often. If you're going to add other deficiencies in his game as evidence, they might be valid, but not what I was commenting on.

re-read some of your minor league recaps, you often will say about Nimmo "185 minor league games in Vegas 2 HR's" or something like that (I made that up) for Nimmo.

My sole point was it shouldn't just be HR's and if that's the only tool missing he could still be a fine major leaguer - even a corner OFer. If he has other issues that's not the point I was making and obviously have to be considered for his future.
PJ  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 11:18 am : link
the article I linked from before the season from AA/Greg Karam makes many of the same points I have. I don't think mentioning his lack of power is harping on some really unfair issue. He's a marginal defensive player without much speed and his approach/walks come from a passive approach. If he doesn't hit for more power he almost certainly won't be a regular. I'm far from the only one saying this. This is what "everyone" seems to believe.
RE: RE: I really dont know how any of our 1st round guys are going  
Ron Johnson : 5/4/2016 11:20 am : link
In comment 12944350 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
In comment 12944275 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


to fit to be honest. With Rosario exploding and seemingly the best prospect in our system what becomes of Cheech? Maybe 3B? Backup utility guy? Nimmo 4th OF? Smith needs to hit a TON more HR for me before I want him ever replacing Duda. What happens to Smith if we extend Duda?



They're gonna let Duda walk, as they should since Smith is gonna be ready for the bigs in 2018. It's lined up perfectly: Duda is a FA after the 2017 season, when Smith will have completed his year at AAA.


Smith is the best prospect in the organization. He's not staying down until 2018. Something is going to have to happen before then.
RE: RE: But  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 11:20 am : link
In comment 12944482 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 12944456 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


why just "HR power"? He's also not hitting doubles. That's the point. Pedroia hit 30 doubles while hitting .305 with 3 triples, 5 homers 111 games, while walking 48 times and striking out 27) in a neutral league in AAA in his age 22 season. Nimmo now has 12 total extra base hits in 53 games at the level, with 26 walks vs. 39 k's hitting .266.

Final note on Pedroia and Nimmo

2006 (Pedroia's age 22 season) he finished 13th in wOBA and 13th in wRC+ as well as 3rd in OBP and 33rd in slugging. So at the same stage Pedroia was already standing out as a potential very good player among his peers.



I mention HR's only because you mention him not hitting HR's, often. If you're going to add other deficiencies in his game as evidence, they might be valid, but not what I was commenting on.

re-read some of your minor league recaps, you often will say about Nimmo "185 minor league games in Vegas 2 HR's" or something like that (I made that up) for Nimmo.

My sole point was it shouldn't just be HR's and if that's the only tool missing he could still be a fine major leaguer - even a corner OFer. If he has other issues that's not the point I was making and obviously have to be considered for his future.


I just think "the power will come" is far more valid for guys who either are really young/physically underdeveloped (say Rosario) or a guy who is hitting a ton of doubles that with a few more feet will go over the wall. Nimmo has neither of these things in his favor currently. Nothing more, nothing less. If you notice Becerra (who I have always been a fan of), I still mention his 1 homer over his last 73 games. It's notable.
Im not counting on HR  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 11:21 am : link
But I could still see Nimmo breaking out in Vegas a bit this summer. There is always some adjustment period (well usually) Vegas or not. He's going up against guys like Gilmartin and Goeddel who were in the majors last year. He's also battled some injuries over his first 50 games or so. I do see him hitting some more doubles eventually (or hopefully). Lets just sit back and watch. We aren't counting on him for anything and expectations are nil. Its all good.
RE: PJ  
pjcas18 : 5/4/2016 11:21 am : link
In comment 12944485 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the article I linked from before the season from AA/Greg Karam makes many of the same points I have. I don't think mentioning his lack of power is harping on some really unfair issue. He's a marginal defensive player without much speed and his approach/walks come from a passive approach. If he doesn't hit for more power he almost certainly won't be a regular. I'm far from the only one saying this. This is what "everyone" seems to believe.


Ok, I'm cool, you don't understand my point, but it's all good I don't care enough to continue to try and make it.
RE: RE: RE: I really dont know how any of our 1st round guys are going  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 11:22 am : link
In comment 12944488 Ron Johnson said:
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In comment 12944350 Optimus-NY said:


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In comment 12944275 ZGiants98 said:


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to fit to be honest. With Rosario exploding and seemingly the best prospect in our system what becomes of Cheech? Maybe 3B? Backup utility guy? Nimmo 4th OF? Smith needs to hit a TON more HR for me before I want him ever replacing Duda. What happens to Smith if we extend Duda?



They're gonna let Duda walk, as they should since Smith is gonna be ready for the bigs in 2018. It's lined up perfectly: Duda is a FA after the 2017 season, when Smith will have completed his year at AAA.



Smith is the best prospect in the organization. He's not staying down until 2018. Something is going to have to happen before then.


That is not accurate at all. Rosario has surpassed him. He's in the mix with guys like Cheech and others. If Herrera qualified Id have him over him as well. Dan will tell you too, he has to hit for a LOT more power if he's ever going to stick at 1B and replace Duda. In fact, Id say the onus is on him more than Nimmo or others.
Thompson (from Rubin)  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 11:24 am : link
“He’s on base, I feel like, every time I come up to bat,” Thompson said. “He’s just so consistent. He’s got a great approach up there -- sees pitches well and swings at his pitch. Every time he’s up to bat, you feel like he’s going to get on base or hit the ball hard somewhere.”

Thompson hit a modest .218/.268/.320 in 228 plate appearances with Brooklyn after last year’s draft. Team officials believe he was out of gas, having reported shortly after playing through the College World Series with the Hurricanes.

This season, he is hitting .278/.346/.467 in 104 plate appearances with Columbia in the South Atlantic League.

“I was tired, but I just had a bad year swinging at some bad pitches,” Thompson said about his inaugural professional season. “I didn’t play too well. I’m trying to put that in the past and move on and not think about that too much.”

Thompson acknowledged that he is still trying to improve his selectivity at the plate after being more of a free swinger in college.

“Just trying to buy into the Mets’ approach, which I’ve still got a lot to work on,” Thompson said. “I’m still getting myself out too much by swinging at bad pitches. But I feel like I’ve gotten a lot better at swinging at my pitch instead of a pitcher’s pitch. I’m still working on that. I’m still chasing too many balls. But that’s where I’m working the most.”

The Mets have been complimentary of Thompson’s fielding at third base, although Thompson concedes he does not have a rifle arm. He twice had labrum surgeries and also had a procedure to address thoracic outlet syndrome, which involved removing a rib and troublesome vein.
Also lets not forget the Mets  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 11:24 am : link
DID try to extend Duda last year. It was a laughable offer, but "Smith" wasn't preventing their thought process at all.
.  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 11:25 am : link
Jeff McNeil, who finished second in the Florida State League in batting average in 2015, was expected to undergo sports hernia surgery. McNeil played three games with Binghamton before landing on the disabled list. McNeil had bulked up during the offseason, gaining 35 pounds.

Kevin McGowan has a 1.23 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 14â…” innings with St. Lucie as he has transitioned from the rotation to a relief role this season. He has experienced increased velocity out of the bullpen.

Recently christened Spirit Communications Park, home of the Columbia Fireflies, marks quite a change from the spacious stadium the Mets’ South Atlantic League affiliate played in last season in Savannah, Georgia. Twenty-five homers have been hit in 14 games in Columbia. That long-ball total ranks eighth among minor league ballparks.

Mets officials are pleased by right-hander Gabriel Ynoa’s command with Las Vegas. Ynoa is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in five starts. Opponents are hitting only .204 and have not homered against him in 30â…” innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

The Mets are not ready to move 20-year-old shortstop phenom Amed Rosario to Binghamton just yet, but the internal discussions have begun. Rosario leads the Florida State League in total bases (54) and triples (five). He is hitting .308 with three homers and 17 RBIs in 104 at-bats with St. Lucie.



Link - ( New Window )
Toby Hyde just posted-  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 11:37 am : link
TRIPLE-A
The “Prospects” aren’t hitting much.

In 19 games in April, Brandon Nimmo hit .260/.333/.315 with seven walks and 18 strikeouts. One pretty good sign that the season is still young: Nimmo raised his batting average 64 points in the final final five games of the month by going 8-for-17 with two doubles. Again, Nimmo is developing a platoon split, hitting nearly .300 with a .375 on-base percentage against righties while going 3-for-20 (.150) with one walk and 10 strikeouts against southpaws. If you were the kind of person who wondered whether Nimmo would have the offensive chops (both hit tool and power), to play everyday in the big leagues, April will not be terribly encouraging.

The Mets decided last winter that Neil Walker made more sense at second base than handing the job to Dilson Herrera. After Walker bopped nine homers in the big leagues in April, and Herrera hit .258/.279/.364 with seven doubles and no homers in the Pacific Coast League, that looks like a wise call in hindsight. Herrera has been earning less than a walk a week (two in 17 games). That’s not a great sign given that MLB pitchers exploited his aggressiveness in 2015.

Meanwhile, Herrera’s double-play partner–Gavin Cecchini–had a similar batting average, but arrived at the outcome in dissimilar fashion. He showed outstanding strike zone control (11 walks/11 strikeouts) in 20 games on his way to hitting .258/.364/.333 with two doubles and one home run. Yeah, sure, shortstops don’t have to hit 20 homers a year, but at what point does below-average power become a major liability?

The MLB depth guys are looking more, well, depth-y

Matt Reynolds, who’s now 25, hit .299/.379/.468 in 20 games mostly at third base with a few games at short and second. This doesn’t change any of my thinking about Reynolds, who I think would be a fine backup infielder. Should the Mets tire of Eric Campbell (1-for-10 in April), they could turn to Reynolds anytime.

Travis Taijeron, in his age-27 season, hit .299/.415/.522 with 10 extra-base hits and 20 strikeouts in 20 games. Mets fans whose memories go all the way back to Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt den Dekker, know what this looks like in the big leagues when a pretty good athlete in the OF strikes out this much in Triple-A. (Editor’s Note: Who else can’t believe those two have regular big-league jobs today?)

Speaking of strikeouts on the mound, Gabriel Ynoa isn’t getting enough of them. His 1.48 ERA looks sparkly, but his 12/9 K/BB ratio is a duller shade. It’s just tough, if not impossible to pitch in the big leagues with a 12.3 percent strikeout rate.

You’re going to see versions of this chart again, friend. In his first month in Double-A, Smith is hitting for a smidge more power than he did in 2015, but his strikeout rate has climbed nine percentage points, an increase of 60 percent. That’s not good.

Go-Go Gsellman

We’re really interested in guys who are doing something differently in April than they were in the past, or than we had reason to suspect. While Smith’s strikeouts meet that criteria, so too do Robert Gsellman’s.

Rosy (Amed) Rosario

The 20-year-old shortstop finished April by hitting .305/.340/.537 with five triples (!) and three home runs. There’s little to critique in this line or his work at the plate. He’s also become an active presence on twitter, where he seems to enjoy engaging with fans.

At the risk of slicing the apple too thin, he didn’t draw a walk in his first 10 games, but admitted on Twitter later in the month that he was working on his plate discipline.

Becerra’s Singles

I was excited about Wuilmer Becerra because I saw a young guy with a big league frame, who was strong and fast and already had easy power. I wondered whether he’d hit for average. And in 2016, he’s hit for average but no power. Oh, well. Through May 2nd, on the heels of an eight-game hitting streak, the 21-year-old is raking at .394/.437/.470. He leads the FSL in batting average by 49 (!) points but did not homer in the month. He’s also striking out far less than he used to. Check out the three year trends since the Appalachian League in 2014.

XBH% SO% BB% HR% BABIP ISO
2014 APP 8.3 24.1 6.1 3.1 .372 .169
2015 SAL 8.0 19.7 6.8 1.8 .351 .134
2016 FSL 6.9 15.3 6.9 0.0 .473 .076
Becerra the singles hitter is a lot less interesting than the guy who looked like he could threatening to hit 25 homers in a season. Still the power’s in there. The question is whether he can add it back into his more contact-driven approach.
Link - ( New Window )
Gsellman  
DanMetroMan : 5/4/2016 11:40 am : link
89-91 touching 94 last start
Seems to be an assumption that Nimmo would be the major part  
Bob in Newburgh : 5/4/2016 11:51 am : link
of a platoon with Lagares.

If you discount the Nimmo draft position (and it is now long enough that you should) why would you play Nimmo in CF over Lagares?

Strong organizations do not view SS and CF as defensive "dump" positions, the equivalent of LF.

It is not even clear that Nimmo offers more offensively than Lagares even against RHP.
Lagares is awful against righties  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 11:54 am : link
Nimmo is awful against lefties. Seems like a match made in heaven assuming Nimmo fulfills what we've been talking about and can handle CF adequately.

Still... that's a best case scenario imo. Likely scenario, he just replaces De Aza in a year or two.
Is Lagares really awful against RHP? not rhetorical  
Bob in Newburgh : 5/4/2016 12:05 pm : link
Has he gotten enough abs not pinch hitting to make that assumption? Or is he just lost in the numbers with Cespedes and Conforto offering far superior offense, and Granderson offering a usually more than acceptable obp for a team that lacks this?
RE: Is Lagares really awful against RHP? not rhetorical  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 12:42 pm : link
In comment 12944592 Bob in Newburgh said:
Quote:
Has he gotten enough abs not pinch hitting to make that assumption? Or is he just lost in the numbers with Cespedes and Conforto offering far superior offense, and Granderson offering a usually more than acceptable obp for a team that lacks this?


Yeah. He's really bad Bob.
Career  
ZGiants98 : 5/4/2016 12:43 pm : link
wRC+ 113 VS lefties
wRC+ 76 VS righties

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