Today-
AAA- Montero
AA-Pill
A+ TBD
A Conlon
AAA-
Herrera 4-6, 2 HR and 3b, dayum. Back must be healed up.
Nimmo 2-5, 2b, BB
Rivera 2-3, HR, 2 BB
Cecchini 3-5, K (really heating up)
AA
Smith 3-6, HR
(Not being lazy but that roster stinks, he's the only one of note in the lineup)
A+
Flexen 5.1 innings 8 hits 4 runs 3 walks 5 k's (I'm not that enamored with him)
McGowan (quietly been very good out of the pen) 1.2 innings 2 hits 1 run 0 earned 0 walks 2 k's
Becerra 2-4 (hitting .474 over his last 10 games, not being nitpicky but again last 73 games he's homered once. Average is amazing but I'd like to know where the power has gone?)
Rosario 1-4
Guillorme 0-4, K (pretty ugly season with the bat so far)
Nido 0-4, 2 k's
Stuart 2-3, 3b, SB
During his 9-game hitting streak, T.J. Rivera is hitting .432/.462/.757 with 11 RBI and 13 runs scored.
Brandon Nimmo has reached base 12 times in the last five games. He has scored five runs and knocked in six during that time.
Gavin Cecchini has raised his average from .182 to .299 in just six games. He has gone 12 for 22 with seven runs and five RBI in that span.
Like I've said, the bar has been severely lowered. Best case gumdrops and rainbow scenario, he can stick in CF and platoon with Lagares and be a high OBP leadoff type that takes a ton of pitches(like Granderson...less pop)
Sure if you told me he can be a "replace De Aza" type then I still agree but it's getting very close to the point of dreaming he's even a regular is realistic.
No problem and basically all of the better prospects had good days outside of Flexen and as I noted I'm personally not a huge Flexen guy. Not saying he's a non-prospect just think he's a back end prospect who could go either way.
Quote:
He replaces De Aza.
Sure if you told me he can be a "replace De Aza" type then I still agree but it's getting very close to the point of dreaming he's even a regular is realistic.
Yeah for sure. Id still like to see him get a full year, without any injury interruptions. Even last year when he got called up to Vegas he was battling stuff... like always.
Now I have to caveat this with I'm not comparing the two, but Tony Gwynn made the HOF as a corner OFer with little power. So don't cite me Tony Gwynn did x and z, he's an example and there are probably more.
has baseball changed that much that a Gwynn-like prospect isn't a prospect you would like because he doesn't project to a power-hitting corner OFer. Plus, as noted there is still a chance Nimmo remains in CF.
If the guy is going to be on-base at a .380 clip with good speed and good defense, make him your leadoff hitter and get your power elsewhere. Or even make him your #2 hitter if he has a .380 OBP and doesn't K a ton.
I wouldn't dismiss him b/c of a lack of power...IF...the other tools are there. and just an example, but Dustin Pedroia had almost no power in the minors. His power didn't develop until he reached the majors and turned 24/25.
Quote:
just can't get excited about Nimmo with literally 0 power. His career line in AAA now spans 53 games where he has hit a whopping 3 homers with 8 doubles hitting .266. He doesn't offer speed and he "might" be passable in CF aka he's not a defensive dynamo. Every year we say "wait until next year". Since opening day 2015 (125 games) he's hit 5 homers with 16 doubles
Now I have to caveat this with I'm not comparing the two, but Tony Gwynn made the HOF as a corner OFer with little power. So don't cite me Tony Gwynn did x and z, he's an example and there are probably more.
has baseball changed that much that a Gwynn-like prospect isn't a prospect you would like because he doesn't project to a power-hitting corner OFer. Plus, as noted there is still a chance Nimmo remains in CF.
If the guy is going to be on-base at a .380 clip with good speed and good defense, make him your leadoff hitter and get your power elsewhere. Or even make him your #2 hitter if he has a .380 OBP and doesn't K a ton.
I wouldn't dismiss him b/c of a lack of power...IF...the other tools are there. and just an example, but Dustin Pedroia had almost no power in the minors. His power didn't develop until he reached the majors and turned 24/25.
PJ,
Good luck finding .380 OBP players who don't have power and don't have significant speed. Tony Gwynn was an absolute PHENOM from day 1. He hit .375 with a 28/28 k/bb ratio his first professional season adding 16 homers and 22 steals in only 65 games. Brandon Nimmo has a .369 OBP at AAA, while striking out over 20% of his Ab's in the best hitters league/park around. There is absolutely nothing to suggest he'd be able to post a high OBP given his skillset/flaws. He's known as a guy who simply takes a lot of pitches and is overly passive. That doesn't work in the bigs.
Either way, I agree. Nimmo is a long shot at this point. Im not throwing in the towel though until I see a full year in Vegas.
Nimmo's career OBP in the minors is .379.
it's been pretty consistent through all levels close to that mark.
And I just said don't cite Tony Gwynn stats and it's the first thing you do LOL. I use him as an example where a player does not HAVE to have power to play corner OF - and that assumes Nimmo doesn't stick in CF.
Yes, ideally you'd want them to be a 20 - 25 minimum HR guy, but if he's your leadoff hitter or #2 I think he's got a place on my team.
Lastly, as I mentioned there are other cases of players who are perennial all-stars (like Pedroia) who developed power as they aged, but had little to none in the minors even at the same age as Nimmo.
Either way, I agree. Nimmo is a long shot at this point. Im not throwing in the towel though until I see a full year in Vegas.
Context. .369 OBP is good for 21st in the PCL. His 81 wRC+ would rank 9th worst in the entire PCL if he had enough ab's. That's of all players, 9th worst. His .312 slugg would rank dead last if he had enough ab's, the least power of any player in the entire league. We have this "argument" every year but if we are going to yell "PCL PCL PCL!!! and LV LV LV!!!:" for the struggling pitchers... why not for the hitters?
If he is to move to a corner, the bat is going to have to play up from its current level. When Nimmo was drafted, it was noted that his swing was going to take some work. Since then he's made several tweaks, most recently last offseason, and is now talking about making more changes this offseason. The results of his swing change last year were not great. He struggled in his return to Double-A, particularly in the power department, where he hit the second of his two homers on April 14 and then didn't homer again in the rest of his 276 plate appearances there. Things seemed to turn around a bit after he was promoted to Triple-A, as he hit for more power and got back to his walking ways with 18 walks in 112 plate appearances. Of course, we have to take those numbers with a grain of salt because it's Vegas and the Pacific Coast League, but it was still encouraging to see him have some success at the highest level of the minors after muddling through much of the season.
Any scouting report you read on Nimmo these days will praise him for his ability to get into hitter's counts but then scold him for being too passive in those counts. I can't say I disagree with those assessments. When you watch Nimmo's at-bats he's consistently ahead in counts but will inevitably watch a couple pitches go by until he has two strikes. He'll then frequently put a defensive swing on a pitch that leads to weak contact. Nimmo's not afraid to go to two strikes, but I think he lacks the elite bat speed he would need to do damage on those two-strike swings. What you would like to see, and I think it can be done, is for him to get more aggressive ahead in the count and stop being too selective. It could end up being the difference between becoming the next Josh Satin or a competent major leaguer.
Link - ( New Window )
Ellsbury or Gardner, whoever is not playing CF. Granted Nimmo doesn't have the steal tool Ellsbury does, and Ellsbury has the one anomaly year, but he's not living up to his contract, but that's irrelevant.
Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.
They're gonna let Duda walk, as they should since Smith is gonna be ready for the bigs in 2018. It's lined up perfectly: Duda is a FA after the 2017 season, when Smith will have completed his year at AAA.
Quote:
offense but Tony Gwynn was such an extreme case I'm not even sure how he's relevant. How about some examples of guys you think he can be vs. todays players? Nimmo has a career .388 slugging % (.376 in hitters heaven LV), Pedroia (your example) slugged .452 in the minors
Ellsbury or Gardner, whoever is not playing CF. Granted Nimmo doesn't have the steal tool Ellsbury does, and Ellsbury has the one anomaly year, but he's not living up to his contract, but that's irrelevant.
Gardner was maybe the best defensive player in the entire league in his prime. He was THAT good, he also stole a million bases. You think Gardner minus elite speed and defense would have been the Yankees starting LF?
Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.
If I told you the Mets signed Yunel Escobar, Markakis or Cervelli to be our LF how would you react? PJ is arguing pro-Nimmo's ability to be a starting corner OF. Kipnis shouldn't even be in this discussion because he hit 43 doubles with 7 triples so his lack of homers is irrelevant. Obviously if Nimmo had 59 extra base hits per season we would sign for it. His career HIGH in doubles is 21... in 2014.
Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.
Yeah but you have two second basemen and a catcher. Markakis was a plus 10 HR guy until his neck surgery. Trust me you do not want a player with no power in a corner OF spot unless your CF has great power to pick up the slack.
Quote:
to fit to be honest. With Rosario exploding and seemingly the best prospect in our system what becomes of Cheech? Maybe 3B? Backup utility guy? Nimmo 4th OF? Smith needs to hit a TON more HR for me before I want him ever replacing Duda. What happens to Smith if we extend Duda?
They're gonna let Duda walk, as they should since Smith is gonna be ready for the bigs in 2018. It's lined up perfectly: Duda is a FA after the 2017 season, when Smith will have completed his year at AAA.
I don't think we know that yet. Performances will dictate that. If anything, this year has taught us the Mets will NOT just hand over positions to prospects.
Quote:
going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.
Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.
Yeah but you have two second basemen and a catcher. Markakis was a plus 10 HR guy until his neck surgery. Trust me you do not want a player with no power in a corner OF spot unless your CF has great power to pick up the slack.
That's virtually exactly what I just said.
Quote:
going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.
Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.
If I told you the Mets signed Yunel Escobar, Markakis or Cervelli to be our LF how would you react? PJ is arguing pro-Nimmo's ability to be a starting corner OF. Kipnis shouldn't even be in this discussion because he hit 43 doubles with 7 triples so his lack of homers is irrelevant. Obviously if Nimmo had 59 extra base hits per season we would sign for it. His career HIGH in doubles is 21... in 2014.
Ok then both of us are making different points. I've said repeatedly it could work in CF, not a corner.
Link - ( New Window )
Dan I will try to find a video of another one of Touki's curveballs from a couple of weeks ago. It is insane.
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.
Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.
If I told you the Mets signed Yunel Escobar, Markakis or Cervelli to be our LF how would you react? PJ is arguing pro-Nimmo's ability to be a starting corner OF. Kipnis shouldn't even be in this discussion because he hit 43 doubles with 7 triples so his lack of homers is irrelevant. Obviously if Nimmo had 59 extra base hits per season we would sign for it. His career HIGH in doubles is 21... in 2014.
I'm only saying that merely a lack of HR power (which is what you mention next to every Nimmo box score reference) is not a reason to say he's a non-prospect.
Other corner OFers have had successful careers without a HR tool. Additionally I mentioned Nimmo may still develop satisfactory power.
Thanks Jay. Yeah, I don't claim to be a scout or anything even close to the sort so my "take" on a great breaking ball is all about the break so take it with a grain of salt but his CB sure looks pretty incredible even in the context of watching other top arms throw them. On video obviously Gooden's was insane and Kershaw throws a few that almost defy gravity. Rich Hill's is pretty nasty too.
Quote:
In comment 12944349 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.
Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.
If I told you the Mets signed Yunel Escobar, Markakis or Cervelli to be our LF how would you react? PJ is arguing pro-Nimmo's ability to be a starting corner OF. Kipnis shouldn't even be in this discussion because he hit 43 doubles with 7 triples so his lack of homers is irrelevant. Obviously if Nimmo had 59 extra base hits per season we would sign for it. His career HIGH in doubles is 21... in 2014.
I'm only saying that merely a lack of HR power (which is what you mention next to every Nimmo box score reference) is not a reason to say he's a non-prospect.
Other corner OFers have had successful careers without a HR tool. Additionally I mentioned Nimmo may still develop satisfactory power.
I will mention it in regard to Nimmo because it's relevant. His lack of power (including doubles) means his numbers in context of the league are absolutely awful regardless of the position. Should I not mention it? I mention when a guy goes 3-3 with a homer "he's on fire" but if someone is seriously deficient (again his wRC+ is 81... league average hitter is 100) shouldn't that be mentioned too?
They should keep him in CF because he has almost no value as a corner OFer.
That said, he is still young and so you hope he can develop. But I would say the chances are about 95% that he is nothing more than a 4th OFer--and he has get better to reach that level.
Quote:
In comment 12944366 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 12944349 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
going off last year(and again this would be assuming he sticks in CF) would be Yunel Escobar, Kippnis, Markakis, Cervelli. None of those guys hit over 10 HR and all had high-ish OBP.
Again, Markakis in a corner sucks for example IMO but if he could play CF? Much better.
If I told you the Mets signed Yunel Escobar, Markakis or Cervelli to be our LF how would you react? PJ is arguing pro-Nimmo's ability to be a starting corner OF. Kipnis shouldn't even be in this discussion because he hit 43 doubles with 7 triples so his lack of homers is irrelevant. Obviously if Nimmo had 59 extra base hits per season we would sign for it. His career HIGH in doubles is 21... in 2014.
I'm only saying that merely a lack of HR power (which is what you mention next to every Nimmo box score reference) is not a reason to say he's a non-prospect.
Other corner OFers have had successful careers without a HR tool. Additionally I mentioned Nimmo may still develop satisfactory power.
I will mention it in regard to Nimmo because it's relevant. His lack of power (including doubles) means his numbers in context of the league are absolutely awful regardless of the position. Should I not mention it? I mention when a guy goes 3-3 with a homer "he's on fire" but if someone is seriously deficient (again his wRC+ is 81... league average hitter is 100) shouldn't that be mentioned too?
You can mention whatever you want, he's suffered through injuries and was raw coming in. And he could just be a bust, he may never develop into even a 4th OFer or see a major league roster.
However, not hitting HR's may not be the reason, in fact it might have nothing to do with it.
Quote:
scroll down a bit. Link - ( New Window )
Thanks Jay. Yeah, I don't claim to be a scout or anything even close to the sort so my "take" on a great breaking ball is all about the break so take it with a grain of salt but his CB sure looks pretty incredible even in the context of watching other top arms throw them. On video obviously Gooden's was insane and Kershaw throws a few that almost defy gravity. Rich Hill's is pretty nasty too.
You don't have to be a scout to know that is an insane break on a curveball. If this kid learns control, which is a big if, he will be a dominant ace. He is so raw though I think he has an extremely high bust rate. At worst he should be a great closer. Everyone calls the Shelby Miller trade an absolute steal for Atlanta but if Toussaint work out he could be an even bigger steal.
Final note on Pedroia and Nimmo
2006 (Pedroia's age 22 season) he finished 13th in wOBA and 13th in wRC+ as well as 3rd in OBP and 33rd in slugging. So at the same stage Pedroia was already standing out as a potential very good player among his peers.
Final note on Pedroia and Nimmo
2006 (Pedroia's age 22 season) he finished 13th in wOBA and 13th in wRC+ as well as 3rd in OBP and 33rd in slugging. So at the same stage Pedroia was already standing out as a potential very good player among his peers.
I mention HR's only because you mention him not hitting HR's, often. If you're going to add other deficiencies in his game as evidence, they might be valid, but not what I was commenting on.
re-read some of your minor league recaps, you often will say about Nimmo "185 minor league games in Vegas 2 HR's" or something like that (I made that up) for Nimmo.
My sole point was it shouldn't just be HR's and if that's the only tool missing he could still be a fine major leaguer - even a corner OFer. If he has other issues that's not the point I was making and obviously have to be considered for his future.
Quote:
to fit to be honest. With Rosario exploding and seemingly the best prospect in our system what becomes of Cheech? Maybe 3B? Backup utility guy? Nimmo 4th OF? Smith needs to hit a TON more HR for me before I want him ever replacing Duda. What happens to Smith if we extend Duda?
They're gonna let Duda walk, as they should since Smith is gonna be ready for the bigs in 2018. It's lined up perfectly: Duda is a FA after the 2017 season, when Smith will have completed his year at AAA.
Smith is the best prospect in the organization. He's not staying down until 2018. Something is going to have to happen before then.
Quote:
why just "HR power"? He's also not hitting doubles. That's the point. Pedroia hit 30 doubles while hitting .305 with 3 triples, 5 homers 111 games, while walking 48 times and striking out 27) in a neutral league in AAA in his age 22 season. Nimmo now has 12 total extra base hits in 53 games at the level, with 26 walks vs. 39 k's hitting .266.
Final note on Pedroia and Nimmo
2006 (Pedroia's age 22 season) he finished 13th in wOBA and 13th in wRC+ as well as 3rd in OBP and 33rd in slugging. So at the same stage Pedroia was already standing out as a potential very good player among his peers.
I mention HR's only because you mention him not hitting HR's, often. If you're going to add other deficiencies in his game as evidence, they might be valid, but not what I was commenting on.
re-read some of your minor league recaps, you often will say about Nimmo "185 minor league games in Vegas 2 HR's" or something like that (I made that up) for Nimmo.
My sole point was it shouldn't just be HR's and if that's the only tool missing he could still be a fine major leaguer - even a corner OFer. If he has other issues that's not the point I was making and obviously have to be considered for his future.
I just think "the power will come" is far more valid for guys who either are really young/physically underdeveloped (say Rosario) or a guy who is hitting a ton of doubles that with a few more feet will go over the wall. Nimmo has neither of these things in his favor currently. Nothing more, nothing less. If you notice Becerra (who I have always been a fan of), I still mention his 1 homer over his last 73 games. It's notable.