NFT: BBI Horse Experts - derby wisdom requested

by far and away one of the toughest derbys I ever handicapped. Ill give some of my advice, cause I have been studying it for about 2 months now.

Nyquist is going to be a pretty solid favorite, pending post position of course. Look for him to be 3-1 or even 5/2. He has question marks as if he can get the distance because his daddy never could. Also, his times have been good - not great. The thing he has gotten going for himself is that he has beaten a lot of the top contenders already and he hasnt had a bad race. Undefeated. Breeders cup Champion. Beat Moyhamen on his home track. I dont know if he will be my best, but you cant dismiss him.

Next you have a ton of horses who are lumped together but have faults: Brody's cause, exaggerator, mor spirit, mo tom, creator, outwork, danzig candy, gun runner who all look the part at times, but....

Brody's cause may be too far back
Danzig candy/outwork will push together for the lead and wont hold up
Mo Tom has a horrible jockey on him (but this is live longshot)
Mor Spirit is extremely talented but doesnt like to win.
Exaggerator looked great in the slop, but is 0-3 against Nyquist.

Throwouts: Cause you cant bet everyone
Shagaf
Tom's ready
oscar nomianted
suddenlybreakingnews
Lani (I am not betting a dubai horse until they prove they can win)
Whitmore (sorry Espinoza, this s no AP)
Creator
My man Sam
Majeso
Trojan Nation

Which leaves me with my 2 horses who I have to decide between: Moyhamen and Destin.

Moyhamen probably is best bred to win this race. He has looked awesome this year, however in the Florida Derby, he stunk - flat out. However, he has bounced back with some awesome work outs. A lot of people may forget him and to get him at a price anywhere near 10-1 is an absolute steal.

As of right now my choice is Destin and he is why. This race figures to have a couple horses go out pretty quickly (outwork and danzig candy to name the first two). He likes to stalk but not get to far back. In his Tampa Bay Derby win, the fractions were at a snails pace, and still came back and won the race with a very good time. With a pace that will be somewhat quicker, it could really benefit him. JJ Castellano is the best jockey in America and Pletcher obviously is as legit as they come. The problem with him right now is that he has been off for 8 weeks, which is very rare for a 3 year old. But his workouts look really good, and I think his type of running style could be ideal for this race. I am praying I can get double digit odds on this horse.....

So as of now (post position can change everything)
Destin
Mo Tom (might be the best closer in the field)
Nyquist
Mor Spirit

is to pick your best 8 horses and box them in a superfecta. Huge payoff if you hit it.

Many horses have a chance to win. It is a slow field. Most of the prep races were slow. One clue to look at is nyquist, exaggerator and brody's cause ran against each other as 2 year old in the breeders cup. Nyquist won, exaggerator and brody finished a close 3rd and 4th.

All 3 of them as 3 year olds won a major prep race. They all have class. Don't leave them off your tickets.

3 year olds with class can improve a lot from one race to another. 3 year olds can all of the sudden grow up. They start to get it. The horse i like is exaggerator because he has class and his last race he ran his best race. Some people say it was because of the sloppy track. Maybe, maybe not.

Exaggerator may be starting to grow up. He may be improving.

for a 1$ bet...

however two things worry me about him.

1. He ran his last race in med - which not all horses like.
2. Everyone crawled in the final, making his last push seem a lot better than what it was. In the Florida Derby, all top 3 finishers closed faster than him.

Great advice. That ticket costs $990. but carry on.

to play win bets, doubles,pick 3,etc instead of triples,superfecta.

Some bettors do it every year because of the potential for a huge pay off, but whatever. I said I have never done it...

good stuff

on a $1 bet it is $1,680.

Unless my math is wrong. I think the combinations would be 8*7*6*5. Right?

I am going to see the derby live this year! I am so pumped!

that math is only for a 8 horse field. A larger field will be a greater cash outlay.

In comment 12945128 FatMan in Charlotte said:

Quote:

that math is only for a 8 horse field. A larger field will be a greater cash outlay.

Fats - I think your math is right -- the size of the field is not a factor in the calculation at all -- it's the number of combinations of bets you are placing that you use for the calculation

I think that's right. If I was boxing 6, it would be 6*5*4*3 no matter the size of the field.

I'm getting old. I used to crank out those types of problems with no questions years ago!

welcome aboard

Nothing to make this easier. Outside of brodys cause, not too many contenders affected by their ppsition.

But it worked for my grandmother ....bet on the horse with the longest tail.
of course, that was the trotters, but she always made money.

Great write up Dep, enjoy the race. Definitely a bucket list event. Maybe we can keep this thread going through the race, already has great info and discussion