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NFT: Knicks Chat: Beal worth max?

DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 3:50 pm
- As expected Beal is saying he expects to get a max offer this off-season (and hopes it comes from Washington)

- Steve Albert on Horny

“Knicks fans will be pleased by Jeff’s smarts and calm demeanor,’’ said Albert, a former Nets, Mets and Islanders play-by-play man and brother of Marv. “The players will like him because of his fast-paced, up-tempo style. Due to extenuating circumstances, the Suns struggled the last two years. But I think the real Hornacek is the guy who led the Suns to 48 wins and were the feel-good story that season. You just suddenly don’t lose your coaching skills. The guy was destined to be a good coach.’’

http://nypost.com/2016/05/22/suns-broadcasters-hornacek-rundown-fans-knicks-will-love-him/

-Dwightmare? Speculation and rumors have been buzzing on social media on potential moves Phil Jackson and his staff can do this summer to give Carmelo Anthony one last chance at winning a championship, and with some good young talent, it appears adding a veteran is the best option.
Nikko Villanueva of MNR Daily has reported that Dwight Howard is expected to opt-out of his current contract with the Houston Rockets and become a free agent. The report goes on to say the 30-year-old has already expressed interest in coming to New York, but the front office must decide if spending $20+ million on a center that has played his best basketball is in the best interest of the franchise.

- I somehow don't remember this but in 1994 Karl Malone suggested he wouldn't mind being traded to the Knicks. Oh how history would have been different.
Dwight can stay his ass home.  
Ten Ton Hammer : 5/23/2016 3:52 pm : link
.
Beal  
DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 3:56 pm : link
is slightly overrated (more importantly very, very injury prone with a chronic issue) BUT I'll take a shot at max on Beal vs. Batum given the choice. Beal may yet have a "next level". Batum does not. Funny how at the time people were sort of surprised Hayward got such a large sheet and yet right now Hayward would easily be a max guy if he were a UFA. Shows what I know.
If you could  
nygiants16 : 5/23/2016 4:01 pm : link
Sign Dwight to say a 15-20 million a year contract...

Trade Lopez for a first and a young player

Still have 15 million to spend, would you do it?

Young player would obviously be a guard
I wouldnt max Beal  
Deej : 5/23/2016 4:05 pm : link
I'd probably just wait on massive UFAs. Beal is too risky. He could easily be worthless in 3 seasons when KP is really coming into his own.
RE: If you could  
DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 4:06 pm : link
In comment 12968246 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
Sign Dwight to say a 15-20 million a year contract...

Trade Lopez for a first and a young player

Still have 15 million to spend, would you do it?

Young player would obviously be a guard


I'd have to know the quality of the young player. I really don't like Dwight Howard and I think he's declining but the young player quality would make or break it for me.
RE: I wouldnt max Beal  
DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 4:07 pm : link
In comment 12968257 Deej said:
Quote:
I'd probably just wait on massive UFAs. Beal is too risky. He could easily be worthless in 3 seasons when KP is really coming into his own.


I agree he's too risky at a max level. I merely meant there is a scenario where he truly breaks out as a perennial all-star type. Batum has no shot at that.
Well, the the effect of having a maximum salary  
Heisenberg : 5/23/2016 4:08 pm : link
is that some of those receiving it will be better values at that level than others. Beal will get a Max deal. He just won't be the steal at that price as other players who would get more the max in an open market.
Oh Beal could easily be Klay 2.0  
Deej : 5/23/2016 4:09 pm : link
but he could also be Amare 2.0. No reason to risk the team build on that. If KP develops as I expect, we'll be in a good position to sign UFAs when it really matters, i.e. in the 2 offseasons before we have to extend him.
RE: RE: If you could  
nygiants16 : 5/23/2016 4:11 pm : link
In comment 12968258 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 12968246 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


Sign Dwight to say a 15-20 million a year contract...

Trade Lopez for a first and a young player

Still have 15 million to spend, would you do it?

Young player would obviously be a guard



I'd have to know the quality of the young player. I really don't like Dwight Howard and I think he's declining but the young player quality would make or break it for me.


Say for shits and giggles its hawks first and teague for lopez
I'm  
DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 4:12 pm : link
not concerned with paying Beal 2016 quality max money. I'm concerned with the amount of games/leg issues Beal has where he wouldn't be giving us 2016 Beal enough games played. If you guaranteed me he would be healthy, max money wouldn't make me party but I would do it.
I'd trade Lopez for Teague  
Deej : 5/23/2016 4:13 pm : link
forget the first, and D12 is besides the point. It is far easier to get bigs than it is to get guards.
So  
DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 4:13 pm : link
Teague/Melo/KP/Howard core. I guess you do it. In theory that team can be a contender with the requisite KP further breakout.
Bradley Beal is a helluva player  
Greg from LI : 5/23/2016 4:14 pm : link
But I wouldn't trust him not to miss significant time with injuries.
Now if you did that trade  
nygiants16 : 5/23/2016 4:14 pm : link
And could somehow get rid of Calderon you could still add a max
RE: I'm  
Deej : 5/23/2016 4:18 pm : link
In comment 12968278 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
not concerned with paying Beal 2016 quality max money. I'm concerned with the amount of games/leg issues Beal has where he wouldn't be giving us 2016 Beal enough games played. If you guaranteed me he would be healthy, max money wouldn't make me party but I would do it.


If you took his health concerns off the table, I'd be giddy about maxing Beal. He's 22, scores 17 a game on good shooting percentages, athletic enough etc. Guards are so hard to get. And his max should only be like 22-23 million because of his experience level.
I  
DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 4:19 pm : link
know it's just hypothetical but I feel like the Hawks would move to get younger vs. adding a Lopez + giving up a pick. I'm guessing someone overpays for Bazemore and I could see Horford bolting as well. Might be time for the Hawks to rebuild.
RE: RE: I'm  
DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 4:20 pm : link
In comment 12968290 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 12968278 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


not concerned with paying Beal 2016 quality max money. I'm concerned with the amount of games/leg issues Beal has where he wouldn't be giving us 2016 Beal enough games played. If you guaranteed me he would be healthy, max money wouldn't make me party but I would do it.



If you took his health concerns off the table, I'd be giddy about maxing Beal. He's 22, scores 17 a game on good shooting percentages, athletic enough etc. Guards are so hard to get. And his max should only be like 22-23 million because of his experience level.


If he were simply "fragile" I'd still roll the dice but he has the chronic issue which really terrifies me. I wouldn't be "giddy" with a healthy Beal if only because it would close the door on running after a "superstar" but I'd be happy.
RE: I  
Deej : 5/23/2016 4:22 pm : link
In comment 12968292 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
know it's just hypothetical but I feel like the Hawks would move to get younger vs. adding a Lopez + giving up a pick. I'm guessing someone overpays for Bazemore and I could see Horford bolting as well. Might be time for the Hawks to rebuild.


I think that is what their management wanted to do at the deadline but couldnt fetch a good enough price for Horford.
RE: RE: I  
DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 4:29 pm : link
In comment 12968300 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 12968292 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


know it's just hypothetical but I feel like the Hawks would move to get younger vs. adding a Lopez + giving up a pick. I'm guessing someone overpays for Bazemore and I could see Horford bolting as well. Might be time for the Hawks to rebuild.



I think that is what their management wanted to do at the deadline but couldnt fetch a good enough price for Horford.


Just don't see a realistic path to being contenders and not enough young talent that could "breakout". I guess "winning trades" but that's not really a plan. Don't see how it would be realistic but Millsap or Horford both make sense replacing Duncan.
Very tough call on Lopez.  
bceagle05 : 5/23/2016 4:29 pm : link
He's coming off a career year so his trade value may never be higher, but do you want KP and Hernangomez playing so many minutes at the five next year? Might be best to keep Lopez around while those two develop, then use him as trade bait to get another pick in the deeper 2017 draft.
RE: RE: RE: I'm  
Deej : 5/23/2016 4:31 pm : link
In comment 12968298 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

If he were simply "fragile" I'd still roll the dice but he has the chronic issue which really terrifies me. I wouldn't be "giddy" with a healthy Beal if only because it would close the door on running after a "superstar" but I'd be happy.


I actually think it makes it easier to get a real superstar. Look at the summer of 2017. We'd have Melo (26.2), Beal (23), Rolo (tradable 14), KP (4.5), KOQ (4.1), Grant (1.7), Hernangomez (~1), our 2017 #1 (2.5?) plus lets say some cap holds (5). So ~82 million. To get a max 10 year vet we'll need to be a around 71, for a 7-9 year player 76-77 million.

So I think you can get there pretty easily, moving off pieces like Rolo or KOQ+. More fundamentally, I think KP+Beal+Melo is a much better draw for the good class of 2017 (including KD). I'm a UFA pessimist, but I think a lot of guys would look at that roster favorably.
RE: Very tough call on Lopez.  
Deej : 5/23/2016 4:34 pm : link
In comment 12968310 bceagle05 said:
Quote:
He's coming off a career year so his trade value may never be higher, but do you want KP and Hernangomez playing so many minutes at the five next year? Might be best to keep Lopez around while those two develop, then use him as trade bait to get another pick in the deeper 2017 draft.


He is not coming off a career year. 2013-14 was his best so far, and 2014-15 was good but derailed a bit by injury. He's just a good player. Not a star because he's doesnt light up a stat sheet. But I'd be shocked if teams thought somehow that you dont know what you're getting from Rolo.
RE: RE: RE: RE: I'm  
DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 4:38 pm : link
In comment 12968315 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 12968298 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:



If he were simply "fragile" I'd still roll the dice but he has the chronic issue which really terrifies me. I wouldn't be "giddy" with a healthy Beal if only because it would close the door on running after a "superstar" but I'd be happy.



I actually think it makes it easier to get a real superstar. Look at the summer of 2017. We'd have Melo (26.2), Beal (23), Rolo (tradable 14), KP (4.5), KOQ (4.1), Grant (1.7), Hernangomez (~1), our 2017 #1 (2.5?) plus lets say some cap holds (5). So ~82 million. To get a max 10 year vet we'll need to be a around 71, for a 7-9 year player 76-77 million.

So I think you can get there pretty easily, moving off pieces like Rolo or KOQ+. More fundamentally, I think KP+Beal+Melo is a much better draw for the good class of 2017 (including KD). I'm a UFA pessimist, but I think a lot of guys would look at that roster favorably.


I'm talking giving up a shot at Durant after this season for Beal. I'm just hoping we ask for a meeting with DeRozan before doing something stupid with Batum. I think Knicks fans are really overrating Batum.
Im not super happy about the idea of maxing Batum  
Deej : 5/23/2016 4:47 pm : link
luckily I dont think we'll get that option.

As for KD, I basically think there is a 0% chance he signs here this offseason. I've said he'll take a 1+1 deal because of the cap jump. But now that OKC is doing a bit better than most expected, he's also probably going to want to give it another shot. That team has some options this offseason. I think they can turn Kanter, or at worst Kanter + Payne, into a real S&T star. Probably a 3 teamer.
You're right, I was selling Lopez a bit short.  
bceagle05 : 5/23/2016 4:48 pm : link
Didn't realize he had posted so many seasons recently with 82 games played - I must be confusing my Lopez twins. Hard to formulate much of a plan until we see what style of offense will result from the Jackson/Hornacek partnership.
Something to remember on Teague  
Deej : 5/23/2016 5:04 pm : link
(havent seen it mentioned anywhere) is that his cap hold next offseason will be stupid small. You retain his rights for a $12 million hold. Even if you end up paying him $25 million a year. So if you have the room, you can sign a big UFA and then resign Teague.

Think of it this way. Lets say we trade Hernangomez+protected pick for Teague (return is besides the point), and add no one on a long term deal this offseason. Next year on a $110 million cap we could sign Durant (38 million), resign Teague, and still have 9 or 10 million to play around with, which even after ghost holds, would still let you make a KOQ-type acquisition.

Not sure what Atlanta will want for him, but he has sneaky value.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I'm  
Aspano! : 5/23/2016 5:16 pm : link
In comment 12968328 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 12968315 Deej said:


Quote:


In comment 12968298 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:



If he were simply "fragile" I'd still roll the dice but he has the chronic issue which really terrifies me. I wouldn't be "giddy" with a healthy Beal if only because it would close the door on running after a "superstar" but I'd be happy.



I actually think it makes it easier to get a real superstar. Look at the summer of 2017. We'd have Melo (26.2), Beal (23), Rolo (tradable 14), KP (4.5), KOQ (4.1), Grant (1.7), Hernangomez (~1), our 2017 #1 (2.5?) plus lets say some cap holds (5). So ~82 million. To get a max 10 year vet we'll need to be a around 71, for a 7-9 year player 76-77 million.

So I think you can get there pretty easily, moving off pieces like Rolo or KOQ+. More fundamentally, I think KP+Beal+Melo is a much better draw for the good class of 2017 (including KD). I'm a UFA pessimist, but I think a lot of guys would look at that roster favorably.



I'm talking giving up a shot at Durant after this season for Beal. I'm just hoping we ask for a meeting with DeRozan before doing something stupid with Batum. I think Knicks fans are really overrating Batum.


I think going after Durant would be dumb, and lead to missing on a lesser but good FA signing.

And if anything, DeRozan scares me - I think he's fool's gold. His defense isn't anything to write home about, is subpar from 3, and is a midrange volume scorer.

He's basically a younger, more athletic Melo-lite with less of a 3 point shot and less rebounding ability. And God knows what his numbers will look like if he signs with the Knicks and his FTA numbers plummet like most other guys on this team.

My kind-of obsession with Batum is that he is good in various areas. Stellar defense, decent 3 shooter, can pass and rebound. He strikes me as the type of player who has the ability to do whatever the team needs him to do.
Why  
DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 5:17 pm : link
would a meeting with anyone cause you not to land other FA's?
If  
DanMetroMan : 5/23/2016 5:23 pm : link
we are assuming they get the same deal DeRozan is the much better option.

DeRozan is younger (27 all of next season, Batum 28)

DeRozan's numbers are trending upward WS/48


Last 3 seasons- .137, this year .169
Batum last 3 seasons .111, this year .097

There is a realistic chance DeRozan signs a max deal and makes the all-star team multiple times on that deal. Batum almost certainly won't. He's a notch below and hasn't shown any indication he has "more" there. His peak full-season WS/48 was .128 and his WS/48 has declined the past 2 years. Heck, even his biggest knock (DeRozan) the 3 ball has quietly improved to "decent" (34%), certainly not impossible it improves a bit further. Batum to me is very solid and that's all he's ever going to represent. DeRozan is already a notch above very solid and with minimal "improvement" could be a legit "3rd head" of a contending 3 headed monster.
I think having Hornacek  
robbieballs2003 : 5/23/2016 5:27 pm : link
Being a numbers guy will help us when deciding which players to go after.
Hmm Batum  
giantsfan44ab : 5/23/2016 5:32 pm : link
That's quite a reach. I don't intend to echo everything Zach Lowe says as the sacred word of God but he makes a good point on Batum's defense: he is a versatile defender because he can switch on a few positions but that doesn't make him an elite defender. He can just handle 1's and 4's better than let's say, Calderon and STAT, respectively. He's nowhere near a stopper. He's better than Afflalo but I don't think he adds more than 2-3 wins over AA. At 3 times the price? Pass.

www.blazersedge.com/2013/4/17/4236272/lowe-blazers-f-nicolas-batum-is-decent-at-best-on-defense
RE: I think having Hornacek  
giantsfan44ab : 5/23/2016 5:35 pm : link
In comment 12968397 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
Being a numbers guy will help us when deciding which players to go after.


Don't think a first year HC would make a big difference in FACT targets. And I think Phil isn't completely numbers blind. Not offering Monroe the max and offering a shit ton to Lopez must have been due to advanced numbers on some part. Same with giving one year deals to Williams and Afflalo and snatching O'quinn on a long term deal.
My point is Hornacek knows what he wants to run  
robbieballs2003 : 5/23/2016 5:38 pm : link
And the fact he blew Jackson away in the interview tells me Jackson values what he thinks. So, if they are deciding between 2 similar players I am sure Hornacek will have a decent input.
No way on Batum  
Lopes1984 : 5/23/2016 6:33 pm : link
If they are going to hand out a max to a "non-star" this offseason it better be to Mike Conley and not Nic Batum. Conley has been one of the 5-7 best PGs in the league for the last 3 or 4 years, I can see the value in spending the money on a player of his caliber.

Batum may not even be a top 10 SG in the league, and was downright bad his last season in Portland. No thanks.
Knicks off season  
Earl the goat : 5/23/2016 8:39 pm : link
Trade Lopez to Bulls for a first and Bobby Portis. I think Noah goes to wolves and Thibs
Use the stretch on Calderon
Sign Demar Derozan to the max. Much rather have him than Beal
Hope that Afflalo doesn't pick up the option
I'll be ok if Williams picks up option
Sign Seraphin and try and dump Oquinn

And of course trade Melo. If Durant goes to wizards maybe Melo waives his no trade to go there
In return a future first. Otto Poter. Markief Morris and Kelly Oubre

Wizards
Gortat
Melo
Durant
Wall
Beal

Knicks clear enough cap by trading Melo and try and sign Westbrook in 2017 to max
RE: Knicks off season  
Sgrcts : 5/23/2016 8:59 pm : link
In comment 12968598 Earl the goat said:
Quote:
Trade Lopez to Bulls for a first and Bobby Portis. I think Noah goes to wolves and Thibs
Use the stretch on Calderon
Sign Demar Derozan to the max. Much rather have him than Beal
Hope that Afflalo doesn't pick up the option
I'll be ok if Williams picks up option
Sign Seraphin and try and dump Oquinn

And of course trade Melo. If Durant goes to wizards maybe Melo waives his no trade to go there
In return a future first. Otto Poter. Markief Morris and Kelly Oubre

Wizards
Gortat
Melo
Durant
Wall
Beal

Knicks clear enough cap by trading Melo and try and sign Westbrook in 2017 to max


smoking some good shit!
I don't think DeRozan is coming to NY. I am betting he stays in TOR  
Heisenberg : 5/24/2016 8:26 am : link
or goes back to west coast.
major pass on Beal...  
Italianju : 5/24/2016 8:54 am : link
he is constantly hurt and its probably not going to get much better for him. Based on the cap and his age he will get a good amount of money, but that team is going to hope and pray he can play 30 minutes a night for 70 games. Plus with all the injuries and missed time he hasnt progressed as much as you would hope, of course he is still young and can get better, but the injuries are too worrisome. If he didnt have the injury issues he would 100% be a max player though (again due to cap/age).
At this point outside of durant  
nygiants16 : 5/24/2016 8:59 am : link
I would not spend the max, I like batum but I don't see a max offer making sense...

A sign and trade for Crabbe would be a great move, I think dan talked about him first, blazers have McCollum who they are going to have to pay soon, are they really going to pay Crabbe also?

After that I would add another AF if Williams opts out, maybe Evan turner...

Add turner and Crabbe you keep adding younger talent...

See what grant and wrote can give you in hornacek system and just keep building
RE: At this point outside of durant  
giantsfan44ab : 5/24/2016 12:33 pm : link
In comment 12968978 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
I would not spend the max, I like batum but I don't see a max offer making sense...

A sign and trade for Crabbe would be a great move, I think dan talked about him first, blazers have McCollum who they are going to have to pay soon, are they really going to pay Crabbe also?

After that I would add another AF if Williams opts out, maybe Evan turner...

Add turner and Crabbe you keep adding younger talent...

See what grant and wrote can give you in hornacek system and just keep building


Don't know what we can offer for crabbe at this point. They have $45 million in cap space just for this offseason (that's also accounting for the $9M they owe to Varejao which is coming off the books the following year). They have plenty of room to retain all of their current RFAs (Crabbe, Leonard, and Harkless) with $30M+ to give to Mccolum the next offseason. If they want to go after big free agents I think they can find takers for any of those 3 fairly easy. Doesn't make sense to let 23 year olds with great 3 potential and decent D potential walk for nothing. Especially since he is looking like their 3rd best player at this point (him or Plumlee).
My expectations are pretty low this offseason.  
bceagle05 : 5/24/2016 12:45 pm : link
No first round pick and a terrible free agent market. Buy a couple of picks, see if O'Quinn can land your another one - just keep pecking away at it. I'd be pleasantly surprised by a Crabbe or Fournier type.
RE: My expectations are pretty low this offseason.  
giantsfan44ab : 5/24/2016 1:13 pm : link
In comment 12969410 bceagle05 said:
Quote:
No first round pick and a terrible free agent market. Buy a couple of picks, see if O'Quinn can land your another one - just keep pecking away at it. I'd be pleasantly surprised by a Crabbe or Fournier type.


If O'quinn doesn't net anything I'd be happy keeping him. His deal is gonna be worth near the minimum and he will have a chance to prove value with Williams likely leaving.
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