Looking at Eli's career numbersand HOF probability

Bottom line, I think he's in given reasonable expectations for the rest of his career. The numbers and hardware will get him there. I think a bigger question is, is he a first ballot HoFer?

But HoF voting has a significant degree of subjectivity to it. This both helps and hurts Eli. On the positive side you have 2 SB wins/MVPs, including possibly the biggest SB win of them all, the Tyree, Plax and Manningham throws/catches, the absurd 2011 playoff run, etc. But on the other hand you have things like "Eli Manning face", some really boneheaded-looking plays and the draft day controversy.

Then you view him in light of his draft class. It's hard to separate the two. Rivers and Roethlisberger are just as accomplished, IMO. Even though Rivers never played in a SB, that's still largely a team issue. I think he's demonstrated that he's an elite quarterback who can win big games and be a dominant player for sustained stretches. Roethlisberger has 2 SB wins, though he played terribly in one of them, and has a big play aura about him. If any of them are on a ballot together, it'll be an interesting vote.

Also, while he's piled up the numbers, he never seemed to have that sustained stretch of absolute dominance or a monster statistical season like Aaron Rogers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning. But that also leads you to the fact that Eli's never missed a start in his career, which should help but may actually hurt if it leads voters to the "compiler" conclusion.

So many variable go into this, which makes it such an interesting discussion. I think the HoF is almost a given. The more interesting discussion is where does Eli fit in in the overall story of the NFL.

In comment 13001161 RB^2 said:

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The more interesting discussion is where does Eli fit in in the overall story of the NFL.

Will there ever be another family like the Manning family? 3 Quarterbacks, the two brothers being back to back Superbowl MVP's. Combining for a total of 4 Championships.

Will that ever happen again?

successful the "elite" QB's in the league would have been if they had led an offensive system as complicated as Kevin Gilbrides.

I also can't help but wonder how much better Eli's career numbers and achievements would look if he played in an offensive system like that of say, Norv Turner his whole career. Or even Ben McAdoo.

In comment 13000840 pjcas18 said:

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he checks most of the boxes and with a few more good seasons should remove any doubt if there is any. the only box he doesn't check is the least important one IMO and that is he was never considered "the best" of his generation by his peers or the media. he just doesn't get respect. He's never in an MVP discussion only four pro-bowls (I believe all as an alternate, one of them he was like the 7th NFC QB asked to go when the two selected couldn't play) and no all-pros. He's never lead the league in yards in a season, TD's in a season, or other stats besides (game winning drives which is great, but not a main stream stat, and interceptions (3 times). People don't want to hear Rueben Randle ran the wrong route or his line stinks, things are tough all over - you think HOF voters are going to give two shits about that. So he's lacking in the accolade and season stat leading dept, but to me those are the least important boxes to check and 5 years post-retirement, the ones that should mean the least. but it all adds up and by the time the vote rolls around it's hard to say how a QB will be remembered when all you have is a stat sheet and accolades.

It's more than that pjacs that holds Eli back and also causes fans around the league to hold him in lower regard than some of his peers , most notably Roethlisberger and Rivers. Lots of people think it's his interceptions, but it's more than that too. It's what many of his interceptions have resulted in, his won/loss record and winning %.
Just looking at winning %:

Brady .764
Peyton .685
Roethlisberger.667
Rodgers .659
Favre .618
McNabb .607
Romo .602
Brees .573
Ryan .573
Rivers .568
Alex fucking Smith .560
Eli .541
Trent Dilfer .529

Eli is sandwiched inbetween Alex Smith above him and Trent Dilfer below in career winning %.

He's closer to Dilfer than he is to Rivers.

And that fairly takes away from his candidacy, like it or not.

BTW I think he'll get in, but he darn well better win at least one more SB.

As for career totals in yard,. TDs, and completions those arguing against him will see a stats accumulator, not a winner.

with two rings and two super bowl MVP's?

Also, compiler in football? It speaks to the strength of his candidacy that he answers the bell, week after week, playing a brutal game in a merciless media market and produces.


I can see some merit to the winning percentage argument, but he has also played his best in the biggest games, the best quality of a true winner. Also, winning percentage speaks to team performance. All these years, how often after a Giants' loss do you sit back and think Eli was the main culprit?

In comment 13001353 BlueLou said:

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In comment 13000840 pjcas18 said: Quote: he checks most of the boxes and with a few more good seasons should remove any doubt if there is any. the only box he doesn't check is the least important one IMO and that is he was never considered "the best" of his generation by his peers or the media. he just doesn't get respect. He's never in an MVP discussion only four pro-bowls (I believe all as an alternate, one of them he was like the 7th NFC QB asked to go when the two selected couldn't play) and no all-pros. He's never lead the league in yards in a season, TD's in a season, or other stats besides (game winning drives which is great, but not a main stream stat, and interceptions (3 times). People don't want to hear Rueben Randle ran the wrong route or his line stinks, things are tough all over - you think HOF voters are going to give two shits about that. So he's lacking in the accolade and season stat leading dept, but to me those are the least important boxes to check and 5 years post-retirement, the ones that should mean the least. but it all adds up and by the time the vote rolls around it's hard to say how a QB will be remembered when all you have is a stat sheet and accolades. It's more than that pjacs that holds Eli back and also causes fans around the league to hold him in lower regard than some of his peers , most notably Roethlisberger and Rivers. Lots of people think it's his interceptions, but it's more than that too. It's what many of his interceptions have resulted in, his won/loss record and winning %. Just looking at winning %: Brady .764 Peyton .685 Roethlisberger.667 Rodgers .659 Favre .618 McNabb .607 Romo .602 Brees .573 Ryan .573 Rivers .568 Alex fucking Smith .560 Eli .541 Trent Dilfer .529 Eli is sandwiched inbetween Alex Smith above him and Trent Dilfer below in career winning %. He's closer to Dilfer than he is to Rivers. And that fairly takes away from his candidacy, like it or not. BTW I think he'll get in, but he darn well better win at least one more SB. As for career totals in yard,. TDs, and completions those arguing against him will see a stats accumulator, not a winner.

Fair point, but winning is something a QB can't do alone. No professional American sport is more a team sport than football. I've harped on this for a while. yes, the QB is the most influential player on the field, but football is NOT a game where the best player usually wins like basketball. QB's routinely get too much credit when their team wins and too much blame when they lose. How do you hear so often "Brady vs Manning has a record of x - y" who cares? they both play QB. brady plays against Peytons defense and Peyton plays against Brady's defense. Peyton vs. Brady h2h win loss record is almost meaningless (as an example).

Some very good QB's don't have great win/loss records and I don't know if voters would weight wins that heavily for a QB when considering him for the HOF

Maybe they will. I wouldn't.

Would BBI blow up if one of them got in before him?

In comment 13001511 WideRight said:

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Would BBI blow up if one of them got in before him?

I wouldn't blow up, I don't get upset about stuff like this, but Ben I could see some voters making a case for, his tea is always in the hunt, and he's got some good stats of his own in between his injuries, even though I disagree, Rivers isn't even really close, (in my mind at least) and he had some ridiculous offensive teams and doesn't have the career stats or post-season resume Eli does.

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In comment 13001544 JOrthman said:

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That will tilt if and when he wins another SB. If he wins 2 more, he becomes a lock.

In comment 13001353 BlueLou said:

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In comment 13000840 pjcas18 said: Quote: he checks most of the boxes and with a few more good seasons should remove any doubt if there is any. the only box he doesn't check is the least important one IMO and that is he was never considered "the best" of his generation by his peers or the media. he just doesn't get respect. He's never in an MVP discussion only four pro-bowls (I believe all as an alternate, one of them he was like the 7th NFC QB asked to go when the two selected couldn't play) and no all-pros. He's never lead the league in yards in a season, TD's in a season, or other stats besides (game winning drives which is great, but not a main stream stat, and interceptions (3 times). People don't want to hear Rueben Randle ran the wrong route or his line stinks, things are tough all over - you think HOF voters are going to give two shits about that. So he's lacking in the accolade and season stat leading dept, but to me those are the least important boxes to check and 5 years post-retirement, the ones that should mean the least. but it all adds up and by the time the vote rolls around it's hard to say how a QB will be remembered when all you have is a stat sheet and accolades. It's more than that pjacs that holds Eli back and also causes fans around the league to hold him in lower regard than some of his peers , most notably Roethlisberger and Rivers. Lots of people think it's his interceptions, but it's more than that too. It's what many of his interceptions have resulted in, his won/loss record and winning %. Just looking at winning %: Brady .764 Peyton .685 Roethlisberger.667 Rodgers .659 Favre .618 McNabb .607 Romo .602 Brees .573 Ryan .573 Rivers .568 Alex fucking Smith .560 Eli .541 Trent Dilfer .529 Eli is sandwiched inbetween Alex Smith above him and Trent Dilfer below in career winning %. He's closer to Dilfer than he is to Rivers. And that fairly takes away from his candidacy, like it or not. BTW I think he'll get in, but he darn well better win at least one more SB. As for career totals in yard,. TDs, and completions those arguing against him will see a stats accumulator, not a winner.

That's a fair point. Let's take that same list and re-order it by postseason win percentage:

Trent Dilfer .833
Eli Manning .727
Tom Brady .710
Ben Roethlisberger .647
Donovan McNabb .563
Drew Brees .545
Brett Favre .542
Aaron Rodgers .539
Peyton Manning .519
Phillip Rivers .444
Alex fucking Smith .400
Tony Romo .333
Matt Ryan .200

It should also be noted that Eli has played head to head against everybody on this list in the playoffs, except Dilfer, Roestlisberger, McNabb, Brees, Peyton, and Rivers... And beat them all. Brady twice.

When is the last time a team with just one player made play off? Still a team game.

He did not sign a contract with SD so I don't think so.

First some numbers to show what's happened in the NFL over the last two decades. Montana, who p!ayed in the most sophisticated, high-powered offense of his generation,had a lifetime rating of 92.3. His highest TD total for 1 season was 31. Phil Simms had a rating of 78.6. His highest TD total was 22. Warren Moon, who played in a run & shoot, which is a bastardized WCO, had a rating of 80.9. He reached 33 TDs on two occasions. John Elway, once described as the "perfect" NFL QB of all-time, being what the scouts call a true five," had a lifetime rating of 79.9. His highest TD total was 27.

Phil Simms has a claim to HOF status that is very nearly equal to Eli's. He was injured at the end of '90 season, one of the greatest in team history. He simply played in a different era. His stats pale to Eli, but that doesn't mean he should not be mentioned in the same category. His numbers against the league median of his time, were comparable to Manning.

What happened in the league is the proliferation of the dink-pass offense, which has scrubbed passing stats to the extent that over 20 QBs attained 90 or nigher ratings in '16. Are these guys the equal of Joe Montana? Not hardly.

Nor is it accurate to say that this is a period of exponential scoring. Total points are up. However not as much as some think, In '15, NFL teams averaged 2.3 offensive TDs per game. 1.6 via pass; .7 rushing. To contrast, in '85, the numbers were 2.3 but the breakdown was 1.3 passing, 1 rushing. Scoring did reach the second highest total in league history but that was most attributable to the insane accuracy on long-distance field goals found in the game today. If the '90 Super Bowl was played with '15 place-kicking, the Giants would almost certainly lose. Simple as that.

Re-cap: Phil Simms is a almost as deserving of HOF status as Eli. He will never get in. Eli probably will. Manning has had far better receivers. He has benefited from short passing touchdowns. Joe Morris isn't taking it in from in close anymore.

As for Focus, OK the guy who founded it is a Brit who loves the Giants and has a woody for Manning. However, he gets paid by the league. You don't. And his influence is profound. The reason why Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick were not knee-jerk extended indicates that PFF's analytics are gaining traction.

So he is 7-2 against the players on that list, that he's played head to head in the playoffs.

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In comment 13001493 rocco8112 said:

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with two rings and two super bowl MVP's? Also, compiler in football? It speaks to the strength of his candidacy that he answers the bell, week after week, playing a brutal game in a merciless media market and produces. I can see some merit to the winning percentage argument, but he has also played his best in the biggest games, the best quality of a true winner. Also, winning percentage speaks to team performance. All these years, how often after a Giants' loss do you sit back and think Eli was the main culprit?

I knew some fish would bite. Why is winning in the post season a credit to Eli, when his team playing little better than .500 ball during his entire career blamed on it being a team effort? You can't reasonably argue both sides.

Eli put up excellent stats during both his SB winning runs, much better than his typical regular season stats, but he (and the team) also benefitted from very good defensive play during those runs. And I wouldn't minimize the importance of the QB position alone in compiling a good W/L record.

Andrew Luck arrived to a Colts team that had a 2-14 record the previous season. His only pro bowl player at any offensive skill position has been Ty Hilton in 14 and 15. Their team defense during Luck's 4 seasons has never ranked in the top quartile. They have been 2nd quartile once, 3rd quartile once, and bottom quartile twice. Yet his W/L record is 38-23 for .623 and he started day 1.

Hall of famer Reggie Wayne.

playoff appearances alone is that there are too few games played to make it a significant stat compared with regular season winning %s.

I personally buy the argument that Eli has been, far more often than not, great in the playoffs. All his wins (except vs Atlanta?) were on the road, and some were in brutal weather conditions or against superb defenses. But the argument isn't a statistical one, it's a game by game recounting. His two NFC Championship victories were remarkable performances showing IMO the greatest poise I have ever witnessed in football.

And head to head vs other QBs is strictly promotional material; football is not singles tennis.

In comment 13001638 pjcas18 said:

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Hall of famer Reggie Wayne.

Wayne was not a pro bowl player during Luck's tenure.

Luck's rookie year. My bad. Had to scroll to catch that on my Android.

due to the win or go home nature of each game.

In comment 13001649 BlueLou said:

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In comment 13001638 pjcas18 said: Quote: Hall of famer Reggie Wayne. Wayne was not a pro bowl player during Luck's tenure.

2012 season, he sure was. You will notice both Luck and Wayne with the same team next to their names.

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AFC Offense Position Player(s) Quarterback *-Peyton Manning, Denver x-Tom Brady, New England y-Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Matt Schaub, Houston Running back *Arian Foster, Houston Jamaal Charles, Kansas City z-Ray Rice, Baltimore y-C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Fullback z-Vonta Leach, Baltimore *y-Marcel Reece, Oakland Wide receiver *-A.J. Green, Cincinnati *-Andre Johnson, Houston Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis x-Wes Welker, New England y-Demaryius Thomas, Denver

PJ

Britt it seems to me that both the QB and the entire defense as a unit become "more important" during the playoffs.

And Eli has benefitted from the Giants' D stepping up in both runs.

The main thing he has done as a playoff QB, and Aikman made plenty of noise about it on air, is cut way back on his mistakes.

In comment 13001679 BlueLou said:

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PJ Britt it seems to me that both the QB and the entire defense as a unit become "more important" during the playoffs. And Eli has benefitted from the Giants' D stepping up in both runs. The main thing he has done as a playoff QB, and Aikman made plenty of noise about it on air, is cut way back on his mistakes.

Okay, the D stepped up in both runs. Would it be fair to say that Eli bailed out a historically bad defense in 2011 to even get them to the playoffs in order for them to step up in the first place?

In 2011, Eli Manning tied the NFL record with 7 4th quarter comebacks, and broke the NFL record for 4th quarter TD's with 15. 7 4th quarter comebacks only got them to a 9-7 record. What's that team's record without Eli Manning?

In what years, that contributed to Eli's poor regular season win percentage (relative), did the defense carry the team?

The 2011 Giants had the 32nd ranked rushing attack and the 25th ranked defense.

Eli Manning has a 12-20 record, despite having two career level years.

Are you pinning the win percentage of the past two years on Eli? You watched the games.

Context is important when discussing win percentage, especially as nuanced as QB performance... Isn't it?

Couldn't care less about the HOF.

Some posters asked "why would X get consideration above Eli.?"

I gave a reasonable response. We, as Giants fans, tend to overlook Eli's foibles and cherish his greatest days. Others do not, and they count up the ints that lost games...

The Won Lost thing is a real stat and some quarterbacks seem to overcome bad defensive play more than others. Peyton carried the Colts on his back for years...

In comment 13001696 BlueLou said:

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Some posters asked "why would X get consideration above Eli.?" I gave a reasonable response. We, as Giants fans, tend to overlook Eli's foibles and cherish his greatest days. Others do not, and they count up the ints that lost games... The Won Lost thing is a real stat and some quarterbacks seem to overcome bad defensive play more than others. Peyton carried the Colts on his back for years...

And that's good that you're doing that... It's needed.

I'm just adding counter points to your points.

One might argue that Peyton would have zero Superbowl wins if it weren't for his defense, despite all the regular season success.

campaigns works both ways. Phill Simms threw for over 500 yards twice in individual games, something Eli has never done. Both loses.

When you are playing from behind, you throw a lot. Doesn't matter if you put up great stats and lose.

but I'm not.

he'd be in the HOF.

a lot of the credit for Eli's statistical success over the past 2 seasons may be credited to Mr. Beckham. And it's hard to argue against that when you examine the statistical breakdown of Eli to OBJ vs Eli throwing to anyone else. Or everyone else.

that's the problem nowadays.

We can twist statistics to tell any narrative we want.

People said Eli would suck after Plaxico was gone, and then he and Steve Smith went on to shatter the Giants all time receiving record in 2009.

and getting to the damn dance again, and Eli showing once more how he cooks under pressure.

Because if he wins one more SB, he joins a rare and special club.

In comment 13001716 BlueLou said:

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and getting to the damn dance again, and Eli showing once more how he cooks under pressure. Because if he wins one more SB, he joins a rare and special club.

Agreed.

Take care. Illegitimi non carborundum, so far as the teaching goes too.

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In 10 years Eli's stats will be average and qb's kf float will blow by his numbers quicker than Eli came up with them.

Don't make him out to be a god. His biggest skill is playing in the big games. His last few seasons have been great, but doesn't erase the past.

both Eli and Ben are HOFs. But its odds when everyone thinks Ben is a lock and Eli isnt in yet. If you look into what has happened in their career..... are we really going to debate who has had more talent on their team throiughout their careers?

Eli has proven to take lesser teams to the promise land and win. Ben's has been loaded with offense and defense his entire career. Maybe we can argue that Ben has underperformed? ( I wouldnt, by the way)

but not first ballot.

that every QB ahead of Eli had a much better supporting cast over the whole course of their career...and none of them have had the historically bad defenses we have had..

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Brady .764 Peyton .685 Roethlisberger.667 Rodgers .659 Favre .618 McNabb .607 Romo .602 Brees .573 Ryan .573 Rivers .568 Alex fucking Smith .560 Eli .541 Trent Dilfer .529

In comment 13001941 JCin332 said:

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that every QB ahead of Eli had a much better supporting cast over the whole course of their career...and none of them have had the historically bad defenses we have had.. Quote: Brady .764 Peyton .685 Roethlisberger.667 Rodgers .659 Favre .618 McNabb .607 Romo .602 Brees .573 Ryan .573 Rivers .568 Alex fucking Smith .560 Eli .541 Trent Dilfer .529

Brady won two Super Bowls with Deion Branch and David Given as his WR's, one with Antoine Smith as his RB. three where Troy Brown was his WR.

Eli has never had a supporting cast that bad.

Three of Brady's 4 wins the offense didn't have much (Corey Dillon one year not withstanding).

their D was good, but not markedly better than how the Giants D was playing in the playoffs in either SB run.

In comment 13001941 JCin332 said:

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that every QB ahead of Eli had a much better supporting cast over the whole course of their career...and none of them have had the historically bad defenses we have had.. Quote: Brady .764 Peyton .685 Roethlisberger.667 Rodgers .659 Favre .618 McNabb .607 Romo .602 Brees .573 Ryan .573 Rivers .568 Alex fucking Smith .560 Eli .541 Trent Dilfer .529

The argument about Eli's supporting cast really sucks IMO, especially if you are considering the defensive side of the ball as much as offensive.

I specifically mentioned Andrew Luck above who has NEVER played with a top quartile defense and over 4 years has played with a bottom quartile defense twice...

But to go over the list I made above only considering the defensive side, Peyton, Rodgers, Breed and Ryan have all played with mediocre or worse defensive units over a large % of their careers.

On the offensive side I think you have to consider how much the QB themselves elevated the offensive players around them and it's not so easy to parse out the role the supporting cast played vs the QB.

It's certainly true of Eli himself that he's elevated the play of those around him like Plax, Steve Smith, Boss & Cruz... but 3 of those guys I just mentioned were damn fine talents too.

but oen could also look at Eli playing with one of the most injured riddled teams for his entire career.

I think that has played a major role on his teams not making the playoffs moreso than how talented the roster is.

It cannot be argued that Brady has had excellent defenses over the course of his career with BB as his coach...so when he won with Branch and Givens he had top 10 defenses...

He's arguably the GOAT.

I think when making your arguments, compare Eli to his other contemporaries, but leave Brady out.

In comment 13002262 Britt in VA said:

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He's arguably the GOAT. I think when making your arguments, compare Eli to his other contemporaries, but leave Brady out.

So who do you compare him to Ben? Brees? Peyton? Rodgers? Favre? Palmer? I don't even consider Rivers, Ryan or Romo in the HOF conversation at this point so I wouldn't compare him with them.

I hate doing subjective things like this, so many variables that cannot be controlled to make comparisons valid.

Eli should get in the HOF and will get in IMO, but I go back to my original statement, the people who don't vote for him or who don't vote for him initially will be because to this point he's never been the best of his generation.

He's never been voted an all-pro, he's only made pro-bowls as an alternate (I believe) and he's never led the league in almost any major statistic.

He has a lot going for him, a lot of positive throughout his career and that's why I think he'll get in, but his detractors will point to what I said as a reason for leaving him off their ballot.

He does have time to change that narrative, and hopefully he does.

losing record for his career including playoffs. Stunks in the playoffs as well. Never an all-pro. Does have 9 pro bowls. But we can say Eli's playoffs would offset that. He has huge numbers....something in which Eli has too. And the offense he ran back then are similar to those of that today.

In comment 13002276 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 13002262 Britt in VA said: Quote: He's arguably the GOAT. I think when making your arguments, compare Eli to his other contemporaries, but leave Brady out. So who do you compare him to Ben? Brees? Peyton? Rodgers? Favre? Palmer? I don't even consider Rivers, Ryan or Romo in the HOF conversation at this point so I wouldn't compare him with them.

Yeah, pretty much. Favre and Eli didn't overlap but so much, but you compare him to the guys that played in the same time period as him.

All I was saying about Brady, is that he's an anomaly because he's arguably the greatest EVER, not just during the time period being discussed.