I've made no secret about my dislike for a particular politician, but he is in large part the consequence of a bureaucratic and technocratic elitism that feels itself above the pulls of the electorate and looks down upon it. There are other causes of that just as there are other causes of it, but this is perhaps the first news in a couple months that causes me to doubt the outcome in November.
If the markets are any indicator of the general perception Â
Or expected results for companies and the country coming from this vote then economically this wasn't a good idea. Luckily the markets don't really follow any thing or make any sense so who knows. The market reaction has been essentially chicken little.
I'm indifferent to the BREXIT personally. My prediction is a rough transition period with slow and low growth. For the EU I think we see more referendums.
Countries are stronger when they are united. Hopefully this doesn't start a period of nationalistic nonsense that leads to more European conflict.
I agree and believe this is a step backwards. Hopefully, in 100 years or so humans are working together for the important things. John Lennon is rolling over in his grave
Or expected results for companies and the country coming from this vote then economically this wasn't a good idea. Luckily the markets don't really follow any thing or make any sense so who knows. The market reaction has been essentially chicken little.
I'm indifferent to the BREXIT personally. My prediction is a rough transition period with slow and low growth. For the EU I think we see more referendums.
Patrick - Remember that the markets popped up 1.5% yesterday for no reason other than the polls were showing "Remain" was winning. Any move today is going to be exaggerated by yesterday's pop was based on nothing other than a poll.
''Interesting how Scotland is firmly intent on remaining
Ten Ton Hammer : 12:14 am : link : reply
while there's a lot of support for leaving in England.
I wonder why.''
TT, - historically, in the way back machine, the Scots big nemesis and worse (see braveheart etc) at times (great in other ways) were the English.
The Scots at times, very traditionally, looked to France as a friend and counter balance to the English, The English are still obviously a major part of Britain, and some in Scotland still make those associations, using Europe as a counter balance. So, whereas for Northern England, 'out' means independence, for some Scots 'in' means independence (from historic England).
That said, you might see Scotland as having a sort of duality, are they New Hampshire (socially conservative and independent or libertarian politically) or are they Vermont (x new Yorkers also having an independent streak but leaning socialist within that sentiment)?
I was for Scotland IN Britain and Britain OUT of EU, with Scots gaining more power within Britain via legislation.
The EU overstepped it's governance...
BamaBlue : 7:44 am : link : reply
What started as an economic union quickly turned into a political machine. With France and Spain very unlikely to support a union dominated by Germany, it looks like their departures are inevitable.
As the EU progressed, there simply aren't many great reasons for the top heavy countries to stay in it. The UK and Germany become almost like welfare subsidizers for the rest of the group. From an economic standpoint, if the UK was ever truly in, they'd have converted to the Euro. They have always had reservations about the EU, and finally enough was enough. The perfect storm of Brussels control, an undue % of economic burden put on them, the constant worry about the weaker nations casing ripples and the immigration situation made now the right time for them to leave.
This isn't a Doomsday thing. The UK will still have trading partners and the EU will continue on for now, and if it does break up - I'm not sure even that is the horrific thing people think it is.
But don't be deluded into thinking that the EU ever truly united the region. What started as a good concept to pool resources and rely on each countries strengths to drive commerce has devolved into the top countries having to shoulder the woes of the weaker countries.
If it was truly united, there wouldn't be half the countries using the Euro and the other half retaining their old currency. There wouldn't be some countries joining and then shirking their responsibilities knowing that they can be bailed out.
Instead of being united, centralizing the political decisions in Brussels but having the economic strength in other areas only served to cause resentment and disarray.
You do realize that British Marxists supported Brexit, and that other similar parties across Europe felt the same way?
And Russia and China are ecstatic.
Why would the Chinese give a shit? Their crap is still headed to both the UK and EU. Their market share won't change.
As for Putin, NATO is more important (deterrent) than the EU.
Quote:
You do realize that British Marxists supported Brexit, and that other similar parties across Europe felt the same way?
And Russia and China are ecstatic.''
----------
Rather, Britain of old, as an island state, was a much more staunch supporter of the west and western values than it has been, as a mollified junior partner within the EU, who have done very little in opposing the enemies of the west, Germany being so close to Russia geographically, and France being, well, you know, France, tricky, often duplicitous historically, or at least, you know.
I would think that Russia and China and ISIL loved how formerly staunch Britain had been compromised geopolitically by having always to team with those two, and that Russia remembers what a strong, tough Britain looks like.
As for America, we need tough, singular minded partners like the old Britain of Churchill.
As for British Marxists, who cares what those very few idiots really thought?
Except their Prime Minister has been saying she doesn't think the Brits will like much.
Quote:
Norway's Prime Minister, whose country is often put up as a model by Brits who want to leave the European Union, tells CNN that Brits won't much like life outside the Union.
"We are a small country," Prime Minister Erna Solberg told CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday. "I think it will be more difficult for British voters to accept that Brussels decides and the Brits don't have a say."
"I think those who are saying there's a good romantic story outside the European Union are underestimating the challenge that the whole process of division will have."
Quote:
Norway rejected EU membership in its own 1994 referendum. But the country nonetheless has access to the so-called "single market" trade zone -- access for which it pays heavily both in money and by allowing free movement of people and capital. "We really are, on some issues, more part of Europe, without the decision-making, than Britain is, Solberg said. Norway, the Prime Minister said, accepts decisions made by EU leaders and representatives and enshrines them in Norwegian law without having any official seat at the table."
"We try to lobby and put our weight into the decision-making process, but when the final decision is made, the Norwegian politicians and the Norwegian people have to accept most of those regulations. I don't think that a large country like Britain would like to have that type of decision-making being made without participating in the decision making."
Or expected results for companies and the country coming from this vote then economically this wasn't a good idea. Luckily the markets don't really follow any thing or make any sense so who knows. The market reaction has been essentially chicken little.
I'm indifferent to the BREXIT personally. My prediction is a rough transition period with slow and low growth. For the EU I think we see more referendums.
Patrick - Remember that the markets popped up 1.5% yesterday for no reason other than the polls were showing "Remain" was winning. Any move today is going to be exaggerated by yesterday's pop was based on nothing other than a poll.
Indeed I do, it makes no sense and it happens. I'm personally hoping for an inexplicable market crash here. My investing horizon is 40 years, I'm going to need some dips to buy into to make any type of return like previous generations saw. So long as the next market crash isn't the apocalypse all will be well. And really even if it is - money would no longer be a concern lol.
The Brits were smart not to join the currency union Â
and they are smart to get out of this mess too. It is completely counter intuitive to think that reliving yourself of another layer of rules, regs, fees and taxes can be bad for your economy.
UK's economy is surprisingly better than the EUs Â
Implying the economic cost to the EU may be more than to the UKs to what the scaremongers were predicting.
And all of that is secondary to a democracy peacefully determining its destiny. Whatever short perturbations result, long term its all good. Good buying oportunity for long term investors.
I can see why Scotland and Ireland would want to leave the UK over this, but it doesn't make any sense to join the EU.
This will change hardly a thing. UK isn't disappearing from the face of the Earth and the Continent will be right were it was yesterday. 660 mill people remaining in the EU will still be buying products (mainly from China) and 65 mill Brits will still be buying and selling around the world.
There will need to be adjustments to trade agreements, but you'd have to be out of your mind to think the world ends because the Brits said FU to being forced to take orders from Brussels.
Hope my broker will wait a day and start buying after the markets craps the bed today...
The Euro is overpriced and the Brits never gave up the pound (as did the Scandinavians who never gave up their kroners). So what changes?
The big change will be the UK's border and immigration restrictions. I guess it is a good day to apply for a job with UK Customs and Immigration.
how little people understand the ramification of this decision. Thinking there will be some sort of apocalyptic crash is part of the fear mongering tactics people were trying to use to "Remain".
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
Countries are stronger when they are united. Hopefully this doesn't start a period of nationalistic nonsense that leads to more European conflict.
I agree and believe this is a step backwards. Hopefully, in 100 years or so humans are working together for the important things. John Lennon is rolling over in his grave
Nonsense. Countries can stand united without having a huge bureaucracy ruling over them. That is what NATO is. And frankly the European countries can't defend themselves militarily, so it's unlikely they will start any kind of wars with each other.
how little people understand the ramification of this decision. Thinking there will be some sort of apocalyptic crash is part of the fear mongering tactics people were trying to use to "Remain".
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
I guess it all depends on what you mean by the "long term." The short term of Brexit could lead to very unsettled socio-economic times, which I'm hoping is confined to Great Britain. But, if the economic malaise spreads, then the "short term" can morph is to quite a few years.
how little people understand the ramification of this decision. Thinking there will be some sort of apocalyptic crash is part of the fear mongering tactics people were trying to use to "Remain".
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
Probably s good buying opportunity after the initial crash.
how little people understand the ramification of this decision. Thinking there will be some sort of apocalyptic crash is part of the fear mongering tactics people were trying to use to "Remain".
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
Fear mongering is effective. The market response already shows that. There won't be an apocalypse but there will be plenty of people speculating and talking about one, which causes volatility.
wrong again. I was hearing how Remain was going to be the vote by a 52-48% margin. This is in line with other recent mistakes by polling. Are people not telling the truth when being polled, or do the pollsters put their own spin on things?
how little people understand the ramification of this decision. Thinking there will be some sort of apocalyptic crash is part of the fear mongering tactics people were trying to use to "Remain".
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
I guess it all depends on what you mean by the "long term." The short term of Brexit could lead to very unsettled socio-economic times, which I'm hoping is confined to Great Britain. But, if the economic malaise spreads, then the "short term" can morph is to quite a few years.
The economy has been unsettled for a long time, while mainly being run by the experts that are predicting any change will be a disaster. They obviously don't have the confidence of the people.
will make the Dow and Nasdaq even stronger. The Dow is off about 450 points right now, but that was to be expected. Markets don’t like chaos. Europe was already chaotic, especially because of its economic and immigration problems. Brexit succeeding makes it even more so, at least in the short run.
Stocks in my view are already overpriced, but money has to go somewhere. There will be a flight to security, which means money will go into the stocks of the great American companies that make up the Dow, and even the stock market as a whole. It might also go into real estate in the U.S.
how little people understand the ramification of this decision. Thinking there will be some sort of apocalyptic crash is part of the fear mongering tactics people were trying to use to "Remain".
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
I guess it all depends on what you mean by the "long term." The short term of Brexit could lead to very unsettled socio-economic times, which I'm hoping is confined to Great Britain. But, if the economic malaise spreads, then the "short term" can morph is to quite a few years.
The economic malaise is much more likely to come from Greece or possibly Spain or Italy and was inevitable regardless of the results of the Brexit vote.
a leave politico, mentioned that 'gaining control over immigration and etc will take the wind out of the sails of any few true racists', I tend to agree.
Similar here, we want to play noble card, show how pluralistic we are, and I am,
but many also want to ignore that the very few true racists within the populist movements gained voice under left leaning regimes, whereas, under a Reagan, for example, the very few true racists were -more- marginalized, not less, having no 'wind' in their 'sails'.
...will be the very same ones who are crushed in the subsequent downturn in their economy.
It won't be pretty, but -- hey -- there's a price to be paid for Nativism, and the bill is coming due.
Please explain how. How does freeing an economy from excess regulation taxes and fees cause a "subsequent downturn" in an economy.
The "bill coming due" is to GER and FRA who will continue to pay for the failed fiscal policies imposed on them internally andthe unending bailouts of the PIIGS.
Sorry M.S., but you have zero understanding of economics.
how little people understand the ramification of this decision. Thinking there will be some sort of apocalyptic crash is part of the fear mongering tactics people were trying to use to "Remain".
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
Saying things will stay the same is almost as silly as saying the apocalypse will happen. This is a new situation that has never happened before. At this point no one knows wtf will happen. Those that voted leave will insist things will mostly remain the same and those that voted stay will scream apocalypse. It is more likely that both groups are wrong then either one being right.
will make the Dow and Nasdaq even stronger. The Dow is off about 450 points right now, but that was to be expected. Markets don’t like chaos. Europe was already chaotic, especially because of its economic and immigration problems. Brexit succeeding makes it even more so, at least in the short run.
Stocks in my view are already overpriced, but money has to go somewhere. There will be a flight to security, which means money will go into the stocks of the great American companies that make up the Dow, and even the stock market as a whole. It might also go into real estate in the U.S.
Economy concerns, concerns about subsidizing weaker countries and the drag on the economy, controlling your own destiny, controlling your own borders (ie immigration), all played into it. I don't know why some people just want to blame xenophobia. This US style of painting anyone against you as a racist is getting ridiculous. Also let me point out, that wanting to control your own borders and immigration policy does not mean you are against immigration.
I also agree with FMIC above, EU left very little benefit for the strong countries. They just end up subsidizing Greece, Italy, etc.
RE: As a subtext, what is interesting is how the media gets it Â
wrong again. I was hearing how Remain was going to be the vote by a 52-48% margin. This is in line with other recent mistakes by polling. Are people not telling the truth when being polled, or do the pollsters put their own spin on things?
I mean, I mildly supported Remain (I didnt do a lot of research), and fully expected this pull back.
But other than the FTSE, who really gives a shit? Traders I guess. I buy broad based index funds and dont buy and sell on news. Really, I dont sell at all. I guess if you are someone who needed all their money today, this sucks. Otherwise, give it time.
Economy concerns, concerns about subsidizing weaker countries and the drag on the economy, controlling your own destiny, controlling your own borders (ie immigration), all played into it. I don't know why some people just want to blame xenophobia. This US style of painting anyone against you as a racist is getting ridiculous. Also let me point out, that wanting to control your own borders and immigration policy does not mean you are against immigration.
I also agree with FMIC above, EU left very little benefit for the strong countries. They just end up subsidizing Greece, Italy, etc.
I'd say being on the Euro absolutely helped the strong countries. If Germany had an independent currency, it would be very, very strong and would thereby hurt Germany's export economy. You can net the good vs the bad for being in the EU and on the Euro, but to ignore that benefit is a mistake.
It goes to show how manipulated all polling markets truly are. The devil is always in the details.
Polls can be manipulated in many ways. How you ask the question, who you ask it to, how big your date range or sample size is, etc. Polls are useless and are just another political ploy to push an agenda. Ever wonder why MSNBC polls differ from Foxnews polls?
A private exit poll conducted on Thursday by the businessman Lord Ashcroft showed that there was no difference between male and female voters – but very sharp differences between voters according to age, ethnicity, education and personal wealth.
Most of those working full- or part-time voted to remain, for example, while most of those who are not working wanted to leave. More than half of those on a personal pension voted to leave, a figure that rose to two-thirds of those on a state pension. Some 55% of those who own their homes outright voted to leave.
The Lord Ashcroft page is really slow, so I'll link to the Guardian instead.
people are killing the polls when they predicted that this would be a close vote and that's exactly what happened. The traditional pundits and betting markets, which ignored the polls and thought that "remain" would win, looks pretty foolish this morning.
Moral of the story... ignore commentators and look at actual data.
Saying things will stay the same is almost as silly as saying the apocalypse will happen. This is a new situation that has never happened before. At this point no one knows wtf will happen.
This is a new situation? How?
For centuries, the UK operated as a stand alone economy. The EU was actually just a blip in their history. They never lost control of their currency. There will be an impact, especially in the short term, but not a drastic change of events. The EU can't afford to alienate the UK and the UK can't afford not to trade with the EU.
By necessity, things will mainly remain the same.
The idea that this is a radical time in the UK history is either fueled by ignorance or by the ones who want to "Remain".
I'm indifferent to the BREXIT personally. My prediction is a rough transition period with slow and low growth. For the EU I think we see more referendums.
I agree and believe this is a step backwards. Hopefully, in 100 years or so humans are working together for the important things. John Lennon is rolling over in his grave
Already started before the UK. See Poland.
And Russia and China are ecstatic.
I'm indifferent to the BREXIT personally. My prediction is a rough transition period with slow and low growth. For the EU I think we see more referendums.
Patrick - Remember that the markets popped up 1.5% yesterday for no reason other than the polls were showing "Remain" was winning. Any move today is going to be exaggerated by yesterday's pop was based on nothing other than a poll.
Ten Ton Hammer : 12:14 am : link : reply
while there's a lot of support for leaving in England.
I wonder why.''
TT, - historically, in the way back machine, the Scots big nemesis and worse (see braveheart etc) at times (great in other ways) were the English.
The Scots at times, very traditionally, looked to France as a friend and counter balance to the English, The English are still obviously a major part of Britain, and some in Scotland still make those associations, using Europe as a counter balance. So, whereas for Northern England, 'out' means independence, for some Scots 'in' means independence (from historic England).
That said, you might see Scotland as having a sort of duality, are they New Hampshire (socially conservative and independent or libertarian politically) or are they Vermont (x new Yorkers also having an independent streak but leaning socialist within that sentiment)?
I was for Scotland IN Britain and Britain OUT of EU, with Scots gaining more power within Britain via legislation.
Quote:
The EU overstepped it's governance...
BamaBlue : 7:44 am : link : reply
What started as an economic union quickly turned into a political machine. With France and Spain very unlikely to support a union dominated by Germany, it looks like their departures are inevitable.
As the EU progressed, there simply aren't many great reasons for the top heavy countries to stay in it. The UK and Germany become almost like welfare subsidizers for the rest of the group. From an economic standpoint, if the UK was ever truly in, they'd have converted to the Euro. They have always had reservations about the EU, and finally enough was enough. The perfect storm of Brussels control, an undue % of economic burden put on them, the constant worry about the weaker nations casing ripples and the immigration situation made now the right time for them to leave.
This isn't a Doomsday thing. The UK will still have trading partners and the EU will continue on for now, and if it does break up - I'm not sure even that is the horrific thing people think it is.
Good points by you both.
But don't be deluded into thinking that the EU ever truly united the region. What started as a good concept to pool resources and rely on each countries strengths to drive commerce has devolved into the top countries having to shoulder the woes of the weaker countries.
If it was truly united, there wouldn't be half the countries using the Euro and the other half retaining their old currency. There wouldn't be some countries joining and then shirking their responsibilities knowing that they can be bailed out.
Instead of being united, centralizing the political decisions in Brussels but having the economic strength in other areas only served to cause resentment and disarray.
Quote:
You do realize that British Marxists supported Brexit, and that other similar parties across Europe felt the same way?
And Russia and China are ecstatic.
Why would the Chinese give a shit? Their crap is still headed to both the UK and EU. Their market share won't change.
As for Putin, NATO is more important (deterrent) than the EU.
''RE: Greg
schabadoo : 9:00 am : link : reply
In comment 13007151 kicker said:
Quote:
You do realize that British Marxists supported Brexit, and that other similar parties across Europe felt the same way?
And Russia and China are ecstatic.''
----------
Rather, Britain of old, as an island state, was a much more staunch supporter of the west and western values than it has been, as a mollified junior partner within the EU, who have done very little in opposing the enemies of the west, Germany being so close to Russia geographically, and France being, well, you know, France, tricky, often duplicitous historically, or at least, you know.
I would think that Russia and China and ISIL loved how formerly staunch Britain had been compromised geopolitically by having always to team with those two, and that Russia remembers what a strong, tough Britain looks like.
As for America, we need tough, singular minded partners like the old Britain of Churchill.
As for British Marxists, who cares what those very few idiots really thought?
Monday or Tuesday.
Quote:
Scoop up some good bargains in the market?
Monday or Tuesday.
Looks like Bank stocks taking some hits early.
"We are a small country," Prime Minister Erna Solberg told CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday. "I think it will be more difficult for British voters to accept that Brussels decides and the Brits don't have a say."
"I think those who are saying there's a good romantic story outside the European Union are underestimating the challenge that the whole process of division will have."
"We try to lobby and put our weight into the decision-making process, but when the final decision is made, the Norwegian politicians and the Norwegian people have to accept most of those regulations. I don't think that a large country like Britain would like to have that type of decision-making being made without participating in the decision making."
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
Or expected results for companies and the country coming from this vote then economically this wasn't a good idea. Luckily the markets don't really follow any thing or make any sense so who knows. The market reaction has been essentially chicken little.
I'm indifferent to the BREXIT personally. My prediction is a rough transition period with slow and low growth. For the EU I think we see more referendums.
Patrick - Remember that the markets popped up 1.5% yesterday for no reason other than the polls were showing "Remain" was winning. Any move today is going to be exaggerated by yesterday's pop was based on nothing other than a poll.
Indeed I do, it makes no sense and it happens. I'm personally hoping for an inexplicable market crash here. My investing horizon is 40 years, I'm going to need some dips to buy into to make any type of return like previous generations saw. So long as the next market crash isn't the apocalypse all will be well. And really even if it is - money would no longer be a concern lol.
And all of that is secondary to a democracy peacefully determining its destiny. Whatever short perturbations result, long term its all good. Good buying oportunity for long term investors.
I can see why Scotland and Ireland would want to leave the UK over this, but it doesn't make any sense to join the EU.
There will need to be adjustments to trade agreements, but you'd have to be out of your mind to think the world ends because the Brits said FU to being forced to take orders from Brussels.
Hope my broker will wait a day and start buying after the markets craps the bed today...
The Euro is overpriced and the Brits never gave up the pound (as did the Scandinavians who never gave up their kroners). So what changes?
The big change will be the UK's border and immigration restrictions. I guess it is a good day to apply for a job with UK Customs and Immigration.
I don't blame them at all.
Well said section125
It won't be pretty, but -- hey -- there's a price to be paid for Nativism, and the bill is coming due.
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
It won't be pretty, but -- hey -- there's a price to be paid for Nativism, and the bill is coming due.
How do you arrive at this disaster? Their economy won't crash.
Quote:
Countries are stronger when they are united. Hopefully this doesn't start a period of nationalistic nonsense that leads to more European conflict.
I agree and believe this is a step backwards. Hopefully, in 100 years or so humans are working together for the important things. John Lennon is rolling over in his grave
Nonsense. Countries can stand united without having a huge bureaucracy ruling over them. That is what NATO is. And frankly the European countries can't defend themselves militarily, so it's unlikely they will start any kind of wars with each other.
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
I guess it all depends on what you mean by the "long term." The short term of Brexit could lead to very unsettled socio-economic times, which I'm hoping is confined to Great Britain. But, if the economic malaise spreads, then the "short term" can morph is to quite a few years.
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
Fear mongering is effective. The market response already shows that. There won't be an apocalypse but there will be plenty of people speculating and talking about one, which causes volatility.
Quote:
how little people understand the ramification of this decision. Thinking there will be some sort of apocalyptic crash is part of the fear mongering tactics people were trying to use to "Remain".
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
I guess it all depends on what you mean by the "long term." The short term of Brexit could lead to very unsettled socio-economic times, which I'm hoping is confined to Great Britain. But, if the economic malaise spreads, then the "short term" can morph is to quite a few years.
The economy has been unsettled for a long time, while mainly being run by the experts that are predicting any change will be a disaster. They obviously don't have the confidence of the people.
Stocks in my view are already overpriced, but money has to go somewhere. There will be a flight to security, which means money will go into the stocks of the great American companies that make up the Dow, and even the stock market as a whole. It might also go into real estate in the U.S.
Quote:
how little people understand the ramification of this decision. Thinking there will be some sort of apocalyptic crash is part of the fear mongering tactics people were trying to use to "Remain".
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
I guess it all depends on what you mean by the "long term." The short term of Brexit could lead to very unsettled socio-economic times, which I'm hoping is confined to Great Britain. But, if the economic malaise spreads, then the "short term" can morph is to quite a few years.
The economic malaise is much more likely to come from Greece or possibly Spain or Italy and was inevitable regardless of the results of the Brexit vote.
Similar here, we want to play noble card, show how pluralistic we are, and I am,
but many also want to ignore that the very few true racists within the populist movements gained voice under left leaning regimes, whereas, under a Reagan, for example, the very few true racists were -more- marginalized, not less, having no 'wind' in their 'sails'.
"Manipulated" or dependent on several underlying assumptions?
It won't be pretty, but -- hey -- there's a price to be paid for Nativism, and the bill is coming due.
Please explain how. How does freeing an economy from excess regulation taxes and fees cause a "subsequent downturn" in an economy.
The "bill coming due" is to GER and FRA who will continue to pay for the failed fiscal policies imposed on them internally andthe unending bailouts of the PIIGS.
Sorry M.S., but you have zero understanding of economics.
For the most part, things will stay the same - in the long run. In the short term, there will be some impact as the UK and the EU learn to adjust.
Saying things will stay the same is almost as silly as saying the apocalypse will happen. This is a new situation that has never happened before. At this point no one knows wtf will happen. Those that voted leave will insist things will mostly remain the same and those that voted stay will scream apocalypse. It is more likely that both groups are wrong then either one being right.
Stocks in my view are already overpriced, but money has to go somewhere. There will be a flight to security, which means money will go into the stocks of the great American companies that make up the Dow, and even the stock market as a whole. It might also go into real estate in the U.S.
Gold is already up.
I also agree with FMIC above, EU left very little benefit for the strong countries. They just end up subsidizing Greece, Italy, etc.
It's a conspiracy.
But other than the FTSE, who really gives a shit? Traders I guess. I buy broad based index funds and dont buy and sell on news. Really, I dont sell at all. I guess if you are someone who needed all their money today, this sucks. Otherwise, give it time.
I also agree with FMIC above, EU left very little benefit for the strong countries. They just end up subsidizing Greece, Italy, etc.
I'd say being on the Euro absolutely helped the strong countries. If Germany had an independent currency, it would be very, very strong and would thereby hurt Germany's export economy. You can net the good vs the bad for being in the EU and on the Euro, but to ignore that benefit is a mistake.
Polls can be manipulated in many ways. How you ask the question, who you ask it to, how big your date range or sample size is, etc. Polls are useless and are just another political ploy to push an agenda. Ever wonder why MSNBC polls differ from Foxnews polls?
Most of those working full- or part-time voted to remain, for example, while most of those who are not working wanted to leave. More than half of those on a personal pension voted to leave, a figure that rose to two-thirds of those on a state pension. Some 55% of those who own their homes outright voted to leave.
The Lord Ashcroft page is really slow, so I'll link to the Guardian instead.
Link - ( New Window )
Moral of the story... ignore commentators and look at actual data.
This is a new situation? How?
For centuries, the UK operated as a stand alone economy. The EU was actually just a blip in their history. They never lost control of their currency. There will be an impact, especially in the short term, but not a drastic change of events. The EU can't afford to alienate the UK and the UK can't afford not to trade with the EU.
By necessity, things will mainly remain the same.
The idea that this is a radical time in the UK history is either fueled by ignorance or by the ones who want to "Remain".