That physical geography has not changed, but the psychological geography has. Suddenly it will make much less sense to headquarter a big international firm in London, or for a Japanese car-maker to locate a factory – one that aims to sell into Europe – in the north-east of England. Why do it, if you could be in Germany instead? Why come to post-Brexit Britain, where there could soon be the hassle of visas and tariffs and all the rest? Why bother?
The risk is that Britain becomes a kind of offshore oddity, quirky but irrelevant – shut out of the action of its neighbouring continent. That shift will be felt first by the City of London: perhaps few will shed any tears for them, even if financial services are – or used to be – one of this country’s biggest employers. But eventually that new view of Britain could percolate through, affecting our creative industries, our tourism and eventually our place in the world.
Tariffs are going up sharply, both in and out. Close to 200 treaties will have to be negotiated with Europe, and any treaties that resulted from being part of the EU will have to be renegotiated with other countries as well. London as a financial center will diminish--not clear yet how much, but it will diminish. And this creates a pretty strong incentive for Scotland to have another referendum to leave the UK. It would surely pass. We have woken up in a different country. - ( New Window )
That kind of strikes me as a worst case. Short term there will indeed need to be a lot of negotiating. But the UK itself a market that is an attractive place to sell. Will the rest of the EU cut off it's nose to spite it's face and sharply raise tariffs? Who, at least in the short term, is going to replace The City and it's expertise? And to what extent will the freedom from Brussels bureaucrats and their regulations give the UK an advantage that at least partly partially offsets the downsides of leaving the EU.
And what of inversions? Does getting away from Brussels make the UK more attractive than Ireland or the Netherlands (particularly if they lower the corporate tax rate)?
The Brits were complaining about immigration
there are 3 million from EU currently in UK
most are Polish , Portuguese Croatian and Spanish
(there is also immigration from Britain former empire
which won't be effected per se by their leaving the EU.)
But there are 1.3 Million Brits who currently live in EU countries
So you are talking a net of 1.7 million immigrates out our a population of 64 million
hardly a country being "overrun by immigrates"
London is financial center of EU which has driven a lot of the prosperity in the city and conversely the UK
I could see EU financial center drifting to another city like Amsterdam in the next 10 years ...
I think that UK won't be devastated by this as much as diminished
10-year Treasury yield down 19 bps in one day implies a combination of very weak global economic outlook and a flight from risk. British yield down 29 bps to 1.08%, and German down from .09 to minus .05%. Japan is at -.18%. These are very scary numbers, and people I know who know this stuff are weighted toward this being an undershoot, not an overshoot.
Very scary and uncertain times. Could the UK climb out of it? Not quickly, I don't think.
If you think there is a chance they don't ratify... Â
you belong in another discussion. And if by the people you mean the unemployed, the underemployed and the undereducated, yeah they got a roaring victory until they see how it effects their economy.
RE: All 32 local authorities in Scotland delivered a remain vote. Â
UKsit, anyone? To quote a Tom Paxton song from the Sixties, they are Leaving London--although London would actually like to go with them. Scotland Sees Its Future as Part of the EU. - ( New Window )
And England is by far Scotland's biggest trading partner, so spurning one union for another (albeit a somewhat looser affiliation) doesn't necessarily make much economic sense either.
that is not remotely surprising, nor is it indicative of long-run economic catastrophe. Time will tell, and intervening economic news (economic or political catastrophe elsewhere in the EU, positive economic news in the next several months in the UK) could mitigate this significantly.
Now that isn't to say that the entities that desperately wanted the UK to remain won't be happy to kick them when they're down, both out of spite and to discourage others who would leave, but it is to say it is too premature to rate this an economic disaster.
UKsit, anyone? To quote a Tom Paxton song from the Sixties, they are Leaving London--although London would actually like to go with them. Scotland Sees Its Future as Part of the EU. - ( New Window )
And England is by far Scotland's biggest trading partner, so spurning one union for another (albeit a somewhat looser affiliation) doesn't necessarily make much economic sense either.
Little known fact is that Scotland's 3 big exports are Scotch whiskey, wool, and drunk Scotsmen who are pissed that their clothes are itchy.
If I were Cameron I call for a second referendum with binding language and dare the Leave voters to go over the cliff again now that we know how awful things will be in the UK if they leave
If I were Cameron I call for a second referendum with binding language and dare the Leave voters to go over the cliff again now that we know how awful things will be in the UK if they leave
The process will take years to implement. Im not going to make a prediction, but I could absolutely see another vote in a year. Could go the other way. This one was close.
Cameron says next PM will invoke it, not him. And he doesnt plan on stepping down until October. Who knows when (or even if) the next PM will invoke it. Depends on the mood of the country and who wins, I assume.
RE: RE: Supposedly this referendum was non binding Â
If I were Cameron I call for a second referendum with binding language and dare the Leave voters to go over the cliff again now that we know how awful things will be in the UK if they leave
The process will take years to implement. Im not going to make a prediction, but I could absolutely see another vote in a year. Could go the other way. This one was close.
The other way around it is if the Remain Tories show some political courage and vote with Labour to sack their own government, leading to a new election
Would just play into the enduring criticism of the EU, which is that it is undemocratic and that when proponents don't get the result they want at the ballot box they just do it anyway.
Would just play into the enduring criticism of the EU, which is that it is undemocratic and that when proponents don't get the result they want at the ballot box they just do it anyway.
The British voters pretty much committed economic suicide. I know about respecting the democratic will but they screwed up so badly that they have to find a way out of this by any means necessary. There is a good chance that first world living standards will no longer exist in most of the UK if they leave
Would just play into the enduring criticism of the EU, which is that it is undemocratic and that when proponents don't get the result they want at the ballot box they just do it anyway.
The British voters pretty much committed economic suicide. I know about respecting the democratic will but they screwed up so badly that they have to find a way out of this by any means necessary. There is a good chance that first world living standards will no longer exist in most of the UK if they leave
That is flatly fucking absurd, just alarmist bullshit. And the elitist pricks who are pushing that garbage are the reason why Leave got 52% of the vote.
Would just play into the enduring criticism of the EU, which is that it is undemocratic and that when proponents don't get the result they want at the ballot box they just do it anyway.
The British voters pretty much committed economic suicide. I know about respecting the democratic will but they screwed up so badly that they have to find a way out of this by any means necessary. There is a good chance that first world living standards will no longer exist in most of the UK if they leave
That is flatly fucking absurd, just alarmist bullshit. And the elitist pricks who are pushing that garbage are the reason why Leave got 52% of the vote.
Of course dpinzow's post is bullshit. Nothing that drastic will happen. But if Boris Johnson becomes PM, as he likely will, then those who voted to leave, the increasingly dispossessed, embittered, and racist little Englanders, will be hoist by their own petard as inequality expands and what remains of the British social safety net more quickly dismantled.
We emphasize what we want on this thread and others, but while you rail against the elites (whose mismanagement is the structural cause of this crisis), it is anti-immigrant hysteria of the working classes that is the proximate one. When economic disaster strikes, anti-immigrant feeling will only heighten.
Some of the anti-immigrant, anti-refugee sentiment is just racist nonsense, but this idea that people can't raise any concerns about the same without being shouted down as bigots clearly drove the UKIP's rise over time, it has driven a lot of what has happened in our country. I have mixed feelings about this and I've been quite clear about my sentiments about what is happening in this country, but if we don't find a way to discuss these topics constructively, to make the case for the policies we want to see enacted, we don't learn any lessons from this.
How will make it without our Masters ? God bless the English with the balls to take their fucking country back. Oh my God, but look at the stock market ! The game continues
How will make it without our Masters ? God bless the English with the balls to take their fucking country back. Oh my God, but look at the stock market ! The game continues
Brits lose the right to claim Americans are dumber - Â
xenophobia and racism and nativism at all in the Leave campaign or a certain US campaign, you're being willfully blind. It doesnt describe every voter, for sure, but you're only kidding yourself if you think these campaigns are 100% high minded and good natured.
X100. Let's call a spade a spade. Come on.
RE: Brits lose the right to claim Americans are dumber - Â
1) this will take several years to implement and it's not clear how much will actually change. They're not out of the EU on Monday. The EU could play hardball on trade and that will be very interesting to see.
2) I don't see how any reasonable person can argue this is the best interest of the UK from an economic perspective. Banking alone will lose a bunch of jobs.
3) IMO, we'll see another vote at some point once they find out the Stay was correct.
xenophobia and racism and nativism at all in the Leave campaign or a certain US campaign, you're being willfully blind. It doesnt describe every voter, for sure, but you're only kidding yourself if you think these campaigns are 100% high minded and good natured.
X100. Let's call a spade a spade. Come on.
And the Leave voters told you what they think of people like you doing so.
and undoubtedly it is playing a role on this side of the pond too. But if you think the grievances can be boiled down to that, or that the voters have no legitimate concerns on the subject, you risk something like this happening here. And what is truly concerning is that support for Leave was consistently underestimated, probably because people are unwilling to answer honestly about their voting intentions lest the pollers "judge" them.
of insufferable twats telling them how stupid they are, I'm sure that'll show them. And that assumes there are no economic crises on the continent, no major terror attacks, nothing that might stoke this.
Think its not a big deal for the UK or the world at large
Problematic for Germany and that was going to come within the next five years anyway
I think the UK will be better off in the long run if they make the right moves in the years ahead
Corrections and implosions to come have little to do with the EU or this vote
Speculators have a field day and fuel as much uproar as possible so they extract rent from rumor.
I hope the signal is more of a throw the bums out mentality. Thats an acceptable message to the elite, imho. Racism is not. And although it is popular to ascribe racism which is surely there; lets not ignore that broken social contracts and the "feel" of broken social contracts as upward mobility declines post 2008 ( dont forget that the UK and Ireland also suffered from the empty banking system follies of the 1990-2016 time frame) finds a safety valve in angry votes rather than revolution.
Last thing I would say is to note that "racism" and resistance to assimilation can be two sides to the same coin...fear
then it might behoove the self-styled globalist elite to think twice about making insults and accusations their first and last responses.
If these elites consistently indicate to the British working class that they scorn and detest them, and the working class perceives that the elites in their own country have less regard for them, their countrymen, than foreign nationals.....is it really a surprise that the working class has absolutely no trust in or respect for the opinions of those elites?
doing, just calmly and soberly pointing out what they claim are the reasons why it was a mistake. Gotcha.
This vote was about much, much more than mere economics, and tut-tutting about economics while ignoring the cultural aspects is simply foolish and willfully blind. Libertarian though I consider myself, I have always believed that libertarianism's belief in the absolute supremacy of economics over culture is a massive blind spot.
But it gets to the point I've been trying to make fairly well.
Quote:
Somehow, over the last half-century, Western elites managed to convince themselves that nationalism was not real. Perhaps it had been real in the past, like cholera and telegraph machines, but now that we were smarter and more modern, it would be forgotten in the due course of time as better ideas supplanted it.
That now seems hopelessly naive. People do care more about people who are like them -- who speak their language, eat their food, share their customs and values. And when elites try to ignore those sentiments -- or banish them by declaring that they are simply racist -- this doesn’t make the sentiments go away. It makes the non-elites suspect the elites of disloyalty. For though elites may find something vaguely horrifying about saying that you care more about people who are like you than you do about people who are culturally or geographically further away, the rest of the population is outraged by the never-stated corollary: that the elites running things feel no greater moral obligation to their fellow countrymen than they do to some random stranger in another country. And perhaps we can argue that this is the morally correct way to feel -- but if it is truly the case, you can see why ordinary folks would be suspicious about allowing the elites to continue to exercise great power over their lives.
does not always capture the broad spectrum of the experience. What constitutes a net benefit for the country as a whole, perhaps even a significant one, may be a net loss for particular geographic or demographic swaths of the country. And Thatcherite though I am, a great deal of the British economic growth that began around the ascension of Thatcher was concentrated in the financial sector (which largely voted for and funded Remain) and in energy extraction, so while the urban and rural working class may benefit indirectly from that growth they may not appreciate it as such.
Doubt it will harm or hurt the lower middle class. They were in for a hard time since 1914.
Upper middle class engineers and tech companies from the UK have a lot to offer. As Dune noted their North Sea and ME energy services capabilities still leave them amongst the world's best. After the US and Canada.
They are and will have a limited future. True under any scenario. But pride and a sense of self determination and unique role in the world is a national asset. And they do have that.
I wouldn't put money into the UK but I'd never bet against the Brits.
I love the people of this country and its Constitution more then I would ever trust the Bastards who would try to subvert it and their minions in government .http://www.naturalnews.com/054454_BREXIT_victory_Independence_Day_European_Union.html
Natural News peddles something than other anti-vaccine bullshit? Â
The elites have failed. They want to claim that if the people vote for more independence and say in their future that it will be a disaster. Well, who has caused the conditions we have today that resulted in this vote? The very elites that are now warning us if we don't let them continue down their path, it will be a disaster.
And while immigration was one aspect, it's more than that. The refugee crisis is not immigration. The UK did not want to be flooded with refugees as the rest of Europe has been, and absorb all of the problems that it caused. I can't blame them for that. Look into what is going on in Calais and tell me that is just normal immigration.
The elites have failed. They want to claim that if the people vote for more independence and say in their future that it will be a disaster. Well, who has caused the conditions we have today that resulted in this vote? The very elites that are now warning us if we don't let them continue down their path, it will be a disaster.
And while immigration was one aspect, it's more than that. The refugee crisis is not immigration. The UK did not want to be flooded with refugees as the rest of Europe has been, and absorb all of the problems that it caused. I can't blame them for that. Look into what is going on in Calais and tell me that is just normal immigration.
Scotland Sees Its Future as Part of the EU. - ( New Window )
Quote:
That physical geography has not changed, but the psychological geography has. Suddenly it will make much less sense to headquarter a big international firm in London, or for a Japanese car-maker to locate a factory – one that aims to sell into Europe – in the north-east of England. Why do it, if you could be in Germany instead? Why come to post-Brexit Britain, where there could soon be the hassle of visas and tariffs and all the rest? Why bother?
The risk is that Britain becomes a kind of offshore oddity, quirky but irrelevant – shut out of the action of its neighbouring continent. That shift will be felt first by the City of London: perhaps few will shed any tears for them, even if financial services are – or used to be – one of this country’s biggest employers. But eventually that new view of Britain could percolate through, affecting our creative industries, our tourism and eventually our place in the world.
Tariffs are going up sharply, both in and out. Close to 200 treaties will have to be negotiated with Europe, and any treaties that resulted from being part of the EU will have to be renegotiated with other countries as well. London as a financial center will diminish--not clear yet how much, but it will diminish. And this creates a pretty strong incentive for Scotland to have another referendum to leave the UK. It would surely pass. We have woken up in a different country. - ( New Window )
That kind of strikes me as a worst case. Short term there will indeed need to be a lot of negotiating. But the UK itself a market that is an attractive place to sell. Will the rest of the EU cut off it's nose to spite it's face and sharply raise tariffs? Who, at least in the short term, is going to replace The City and it's expertise? And to what extent will the freedom from Brussels bureaucrats and their regulations give the UK an advantage that at least partly partially offsets the downsides of leaving the EU.
And what of inversions? Does getting away from Brussels make the UK more attractive than Ireland or the Netherlands (particularly if they lower the corporate tax rate)?
there are 3 million from EU currently in UK
most are Polish , Portuguese Croatian and Spanish
(there is also immigration from Britain former empire
which won't be effected per se by their leaving the EU.)
But there are 1.3 Million Brits who currently live in EU countries
So you are talking a net of 1.7 million immigrates out our a population of 64 million
hardly a country being "overrun by immigrates"
London is financial center of EU which has driven a lot of the prosperity in the city and conversely the UK
I could see EU financial center drifting to another city like Amsterdam in the next 10 years ...
I think that UK won't be devastated by this as much as diminished
Barclay's stock is off 20 1/2%, as an example.
10-year Treasury yield down 19 bps in one day implies a combination of very weak global economic outlook and a flight from risk. British yield down 29 bps to 1.08%, and German down from .09 to minus .05%. Japan is at -.18%. These are very scary numbers, and people I know who know this stuff are weighted toward this being an undershoot, not an overshoot.
Very scary and uncertain times. Could the UK climb out of it? Not quickly, I don't think.
And England is by far Scotland's biggest trading partner, so spurning one union for another (albeit a somewhat looser affiliation) doesn't necessarily make much economic sense either.
Now that isn't to say that the entities that desperately wanted the UK to remain won't be happy to kick them when they're down, both out of spite and to discourage others who would leave, but it is to say it is too premature to rate this an economic disaster.
Quote:
UKsit, anyone? To quote a Tom Paxton song from the Sixties, they are Leaving London--although London would actually like to go with them. Scotland Sees Its Future as Part of the EU. - ( New Window )
And England is by far Scotland's biggest trading partner, so spurning one union for another (albeit a somewhat looser affiliation) doesn't necessarily make much economic sense either.
Little known fact is that Scotland's 3 big exports are Scotch whiskey, wool, and drunk Scotsmen who are pissed that their clothes are itchy.
The process will take years to implement. Im not going to make a prediction, but I could absolutely see another vote in a year. Could go the other way. This one was close.
Quote:
If I were Cameron I call for a second referendum with binding language and dare the Leave voters to go over the cliff again now that we know how awful things will be in the UK if they leave
The process will take years to implement. Im not going to make a prediction, but I could absolutely see another vote in a year. Could go the other way. This one was close.
The other way around it is if the Remain Tories show some political courage and vote with Labour to sack their own government, leading to a new election
The British voters pretty much committed economic suicide. I know about respecting the democratic will but they screwed up so badly that they have to find a way out of this by any means necessary. There is a good chance that first world living standards will no longer exist in most of the UK if they leave
Quote:
Would just play into the enduring criticism of the EU, which is that it is undemocratic and that when proponents don't get the result they want at the ballot box they just do it anyway.
The British voters pretty much committed economic suicide. I know about respecting the democratic will but they screwed up so badly that they have to find a way out of this by any means necessary. There is a good chance that first world living standards will no longer exist in most of the UK if they leave
That is flatly fucking absurd, just alarmist bullshit. And the elitist pricks who are pushing that garbage are the reason why Leave got 52% of the vote.
Quote:
In comment 13008286 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
Would just play into the enduring criticism of the EU, which is that it is undemocratic and that when proponents don't get the result they want at the ballot box they just do it anyway.
The British voters pretty much committed economic suicide. I know about respecting the democratic will but they screwed up so badly that they have to find a way out of this by any means necessary. There is a good chance that first world living standards will no longer exist in most of the UK if they leave
That is flatly fucking absurd, just alarmist bullshit. And the elitist pricks who are pushing that garbage are the reason why Leave got 52% of the vote.
Of course dpinzow's post is bullshit. Nothing that drastic will happen. But if Boris Johnson becomes PM, as he likely will, then those who voted to leave, the increasingly dispossessed, embittered, and racist little Englanders, will be hoist by their own petard as inequality expands and what remains of the British social safety net more quickly dismantled.
We emphasize what we want on this thread and others, but while you rail against the elites (whose mismanagement is the structural cause of this crisis), it is anti-immigrant hysteria of the working classes that is the proximate one. When economic disaster strikes, anti-immigrant feeling will only heighten.
Enjoy.
Link - ( New Window )
X100. Let's call a spade a spade. Come on.
Well we already knew that 250 years ago.
Or Borowitz doesn't have a clue what he is talking about like the rest of the world.
Who knows how it will pan out.
Half will be wrong and half will be right.
Or it won't be half good or bad and the games continue.
1) this will take several years to implement and it's not clear how much will actually change. They're not out of the EU on Monday. The EU could play hardball on trade and that will be very interesting to see.
2) I don't see how any reasonable person can argue this is the best interest of the UK from an economic perspective. Banking alone will lose a bunch of jobs.
3) IMO, we'll see another vote at some point once they find out the Stay was correct.
Quote:
xenophobia and racism and nativism at all in the Leave campaign or a certain US campaign, you're being willfully blind. It doesnt describe every voter, for sure, but you're only kidding yourself if you think these campaigns are 100% high minded and good natured.
X100. Let's call a spade a spade. Come on.
And the Leave voters told you what they think of people like you doing so.
AP
It's a lot more than that.
A simplistic answer is never the cause.
Downfall of either side of a discussion. Never that easy.
AP
It's a lot more than that.
A simplistic answer is never the cause.
Downfall of either side of a discussion. Never that easy.
Are you anti American?
Problematic for Germany and that was going to come within the next five years anyway
I think the UK will be better off in the long run if they make the right moves in the years ahead
Corrections and implosions to come have little to do with the EU or this vote
Speculators have a field day and fuel as much uproar as possible so they extract rent from rumor.
I hope the signal is more of a throw the bums out mentality. Thats an acceptable message to the elite, imho. Racism is not. And although it is popular to ascribe racism which is surely there; lets not ignore that broken social contracts and the "feel" of broken social contracts as upward mobility declines post 2008 ( dont forget that the UK and Ireland also suffered from the empty banking system follies of the 1990-2016 time frame) finds a safety valve in angry votes rather than revolution.
Last thing I would say is to note that "racism" and resistance to assimilation can be two sides to the same coin...fear
If these elites consistently indicate to the British working class that they scorn and detest them, and the working class perceives that the elites in their own country have less regard for them, their countrymen, than foreign nationals.....is it really a surprise that the working class has absolutely no trust in or respect for the opinions of those elites?
This vote was about much, much more than mere economics, and tut-tutting about economics while ignoring the cultural aspects is simply foolish and willfully blind. Libertarian though I consider myself, I have always believed that libertarianism's belief in the absolute supremacy of economics over culture is a massive blind spot.
That now seems hopelessly naive. People do care more about people who are like them -- who speak their language, eat their food, share their customs and values. And when elites try to ignore those sentiments -- or banish them by declaring that they are simply racist -- this doesn’t make the sentiments go away. It makes the non-elites suspect the elites of disloyalty. For though elites may find something vaguely horrifying about saying that you care more about people who are like you than you do about people who are culturally or geographically further away, the rest of the population is outraged by the never-stated corollary: that the elites running things feel no greater moral obligation to their fellow countrymen than they do to some random stranger in another country. And perhaps we can argue that this is the morally correct way to feel -- but if it is truly the case, you can see why ordinary folks would be suspicious about allowing the elites to continue to exercise great power over their lives.
Link - ( New Window )
Upper middle class engineers and tech companies from the UK have a lot to offer. As Dune noted their North Sea and ME energy services capabilities still leave them amongst the world's best. After the US and Canada.
They are and will have a limited future. True under any scenario. But pride and a sense of self determination and unique role in the world is a national asset. And they do have that.
I wouldn't put money into the UK but I'd never bet against the Brits.
And while immigration was one aspect, it's more than that. The refugee crisis is not immigration. The UK did not want to be flooded with refugees as the rest of Europe has been, and absorb all of the problems that it caused. I can't blame them for that. Look into what is going on in Calais and tell me that is just normal immigration.
And while immigration was one aspect, it's more than that. The refugee crisis is not immigration. The UK did not want to be flooded with refugees as the rest of Europe has been, and absorb all of the problems that it caused. I can't blame them for that. Look into what is going on in Calais and tell me that is just normal immigration.