With the European market crashing, the pound losing massive value overnight, many people not fully understanding what the EU was, and the millions of dollars it's going to cost to leave the EU, do you think the United Kingdom would vote to leave if they voted again today?
Personally I think they have some buyer remorse, but they realize the consequences are short term right now.
It's like passing the bill in order to know what's in it.
(Sorry, it was low hanging fruit!)
Second, as it turns out, unless Britain (or England or whatever it'll be) wants to make trade deals that put it at a considerable competitive disadvantage, they'll have to allow pretty much the same freedom of movement across borders that they have now, so they won't be able to keep out cheap labor from Eastern Europe. Unless they want to be basically screwed in trading with their main partners.
Those two things mean key supposed benefits of Brexit are now looking like empty, basically un-keepable campaign promises.
Third, there are areas of Britain that benefit quite a bit from EU subsidies. Some of those areas voted for "Leave." But now they are realizing they're going to lose their subsidies. Those areas, and the people who live there, may now realize that they, too, accrued benefits from the EU, which they threw away.
Beyond that: Scotland will probably either try to block Brexit in its own parliament or have another referendum on independence -- and this time it would choose to break away. Northern Ireland will not want to suddenly have border crossings to and from the Republic of Ireland, with passport checks -- there'll be a push for Irish reunification. So the U.K. could easily fly apart. Do you think maybe 1/10 of the Leave voters would change their vote if they knew it would save the U.K.? 1/10 of leave voters changing would flip the outcome.
I think it's going to be tough to stop these dominoes from falling. If they do, the rump Kingdom of England & Wales (Throwback to 1706!) will be left competing at a disadvantage, and while it's negotiating dozens of new trade deals, it can stew about whether it wants to try to get back into the EU as a much smaller, less powerful, less influential nation.
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In comment 13011658 compton said:
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that the remain vote would win by a big margin. All those leaders would were staunchly for Britex are now speaking in subdued tones and walking back some of their pronouncements.
IDN
Longer this goes on, looks like the stay crowd is panicking.
It seems more and more obvious.
It'll be a while before anything happens whether it a revote or whatever.
That it would be a gradual severance will play into the leave crowd's favor.
Never as dire one way or the other.
That's the thing, both France and Germany want England out post haste. France and Germany plainly state that they don't want this thing dragging out. In the long term England will be all right. However, the short to intermediate term England will be worse off for leaving the EU.
All we can do is wait and see.
Should this vote have required a supermajority (I'm not sure if UK elections ever require such a thing)? Or maybe at least 60%?
Scotland tries to.reduce the voting age to 16 to increase the likelihood of victory. 50% +1 of the electorate, potentially a minority of the traditional electorate, could have severed a much older, much more enduring connection.
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as my Southern customers often say, "I really don't have a dog in this fight." At least I personally didn't feel that strongly for or against "Brexit". However, such a potentially nation altering decision would seem to require more than just a simple majority. As folks have said, 2% would have swung the vote the other way.
Should this vote have required a supermajority (I'm not sure if UK elections ever require such a thing)? Or maybe at least 60%?
Scotland tries to.reduce the voting age to 16 to increase the likelihood of victory. 50% +1 of the electorate, potentially a minority of the traditional electorate, could have severed a much older, much more enduring connection.
Upon rereading it isn't clear, was referring to their independence referendum. Which would be much thornier of a divorce.
"but muh globalism!"
A majority just democratically voted to tell the EU to pound sand. Naturally those in favor of the status quo are salty.
Que sunglasses deal-with-it GIF.
IMO, from the Brits I know - most of whom wanted out (ironic since they all work in finance, which seems like it would be the most affected) - none of this is coming as any surprise, but they do believe it's going to be temporary as a hysterical overreaction of the market.
From what I've seen & read most Brits understood there would hard times in the begining but went ahead anyway. Just tired of someone on the continent regulating them.
So you would have a plebiscite in our country force a plurality in congress over the constitutional system we have in place? The vote carries weight, the prime minister has resigned, but the Britons will have a process and it is not clear what that will be.
Me, on a sports message board, I predict the UK negotiates a face saving way to minimize damage and remain in the EU substantively.
Germany is the key to the politics vis a vis Russia, not so much the UK which has always toted the US line. Putin likes Brexit as a sign of weakness in the west, but it is not that ... It is an anger vote. It is Europe, they will figure a face saving way out.
The US is the only real power in Europe.
The world is getting smaller and international groups such as the EU are inevitable if we are to progress. Isolationalists and those who'll cry foul of any centralized power will continue to do so. Are there flaws? Course.
There were flaws with the League of Nations, too. It ultimately failed to prevent WWII, but it lain the groundwork for the UN which adapted to a post war world. It's served US (capital US) reasonably well for several generations, despite a quickly changing world. It too may go the way of the dodo, but it'll be replaced by some other such organization.
One thing we do know is the path forward has never been isolation and protectionist policies. You'd think some people would learn from history.
This is from five years ago, long before the refugee crisis - ( New Window )
Yeah, but you always do.
Exactly. And the overbearing regulations. I've just read in the past few days that the EU is talking about banning electric kettles and some hair dryers because of global warming concerns. And that a butcher shop in the UK immediately began selling meat in pounds and ounces after the exit vote. These things sound silly, but many people are tired of bureaucrats in far away places making these types of decisions that affect most people's lives daily, but have no real discernible benefit to them. The ruling class or elites, whatever you want to call them, seem to excel in making rules to show how enlightened they are. It's a form of virtue signaling. Meanwhile, real problems go unresolved. It's what happens when the people in power forget they are servants of the people, not masters.
But that's not going to happen. Cameron has already said, and not unreasonably, that the negotiations will be done by the next Prime Minister.
You Brexit; you bought it.
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...from London versus Brussels, is that they get to vote for the guys passing down the laws from London. This is from five years ago, long before the refugee crisis - ( New Window )
Exactly. And the overbearing regulations. I've just read in the past few days that the EU is talking about banning electric kettles and some hair dryers because of global warming concerns. And that a butcher shop in the UK immediately began selling meat in pounds and ounces after the exit vote. These things sound silly, but many people are tired of bureaucrats in far away places making these types of decisions that affect most people's lives daily, but have no real discernible benefit to them. The ruling class or elites, whatever you want to call them, seem to excel in making rules to show how enlightened they are. It's a form of virtue signaling. Meanwhile, real problems go unresolved. It's what happens when the people in power forget they are servants of the people, not masters.
Global warming is a real problem.
Take a scroll through this - really sad. - ( New Window )
This is much ado about nothing. England is not cutting it's phone lines nor closing its internet nor closing its factories, farms,banks nor ports. The clamor is from those with a vested interest losing a layer of their protection.
The dirty secret of socialism is that it protects the haves, not the have nots
The dirty secret of socialism is that it protects the haves, not the have nots
False. Neither socialism nor capitalism protect the have or the have nots. You are confusing the theoretical economic system with past and current "Socialist" countries. Power structures in place tend to protect the haves. It is just a fundamental, observable reality. Goes back to pre-history. But it is not the economic systems that drive that. It is the essence of politics.
BRAVO!!!!!
You make an interesting point, but before I agree or disagree, what is you IQ?
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a majority vote (and not really a razor-thin one either - nearly 4% of the vote) against your specific voting preference, is to assail the IQ of the voters with whom you disagree, YOU ARE THE PROBLEM. Full stop.
You make an interesting point, but before I agree or disagree, what is you IQ?
Eleventeen.
Also, only three of 35 areas where more than half of residents had a degree voted to leave the EU.
What is "No education" on the Y-axis?
There's nothing undemocratic about a revote. You have a process for referendums. What's undemocratic about following the process in the constitution?
"Sorry, we already voted on that. The issue has been decided...forever?"
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While I can't speak to IQ, there is some correlation between wanting to leave the EU and level of education. Less educated areas voted to leave. That much is fact.
What is "No education" on the Y-axis?
Not going to University.
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While I can't speak to IQ, there is some correlation between wanting to leave the EU and level of education. Less educated areas voted to leave. That much is fact.
Also, only three of 35 areas where more than half of residents had a degree voted to leave the EU.
What's missing from your analysis is whether people voting leave, regardless of IQ, voted in their own self interest. Obviously, workers in The City were perfectly happy with the status quo. Financial services were clearly a beneficiary of membership. They are also predominately highly educated. But what if you resided and were employed in a factory town adversely affected by Brussels micromanagement? Is the basis of their vote a low IQ, or self interest?
You can go through and argue the benefits vs. the detriments in the various locations in the UK. People will likely reach varied conclusions. But to ipso facto attribute this simply to IQ begs any sort analysis and looks like simple snobbery and condescension.
Fuck those Mexican Chinese stealing our jerbs. They work for the illuminati lizard people and their New World Order. Something about the Rockefellers. A trade war is a good start. So long as my individual state supports it, you know states rights and all that stuff.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36650014
2. Shared more of the benefits of EU membership with the idiots
And LOL at the irony of AP's posts...