FF thread

In comment 13013588 dep026 said:

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to be a top 3 RB this year. And he has always been the biggest dick tease out of them all. Good team Good offensive philosophy Good defense Weak division Goal line back Catches passes Head Coach who LOVES using his RB a lot.... Your 2016 RB of the year.... Lamar Miller.

That fucker has burned me way to many times.

draft WR instead of RB in the top 10 in a standard scoring league?

In comment 13013728 leatherneck570 said:

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draft WR instead of RB in the top 10 in a standard scoring league?

Depends on where you're drafting. If it's towards the back (8, 9, 10) you could grab an elite WR and then a good RB on the turn.

and I am seriously considering drafting a WR with my first pick.

and I apologize for that. I guess where I was going with that was more of a zero RB strategy the first few rounds (after Bell and Peterson are off the board of course).

my 1st round RB (Lacey) didn't do shit.

and my top 3 picks, barring injury, are

Brown
Beckham
Julio

And I really cant see anything changing my mind..

In comment 13013769 leatherneck570 said:

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and I apologize for that. I guess where I was going with that was more of a zero RB strategy the first few rounds (after Bell and Peterson are off the board of course).

Ahh, I see. I've used this strategy many times. It's the best when you have the 10th pick because, you can guarantee yourself 2 elite WR or, an relive WR and an elite TE. Then, when it finally gets back to you, you can take the best RB available. If nothing is intriguing there, take another WR or, best TE available.

I love drafting at 10. Waiting sucks but, having two picks in a row is always nice.

I try to get a WR/RB in the first 2 rounds. Obviously you don't want to reach, but there is usually a top tier WR/RB available in each rd. Most top tier RB's go in the first round which leaves WR's for the 2nd round.

but Zeke will be over drafted this summer. Dallas, high pick and their OL will have fans going nuts over his potential but he's still a rookie who has yet to prove he can handle the load in the NFL.

I'd love Elliot in round 4-5 but he will go in round 1-2. And that's absurd.

In comment 13013836 djm said:

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but Zeke will be over drafted this summer. Dallas, high pick and their OL will have fans going nuts over his potential but he's still a rookie who has yet to prove he can handle the load in the NFL. I'd love Elliot in round 4-5 but he will go in round 1-2. And that's absurd.

A guy in my keeper league (slightly skewed because the available players are less) has the second pick and has already said if Zeke doesn't go #1, he's taking him #2. He's a Cowboys fan, but I hear that sentiment from others too.

In comment 13013674 Heisenberg said:

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In comment 13013552 YAJ2112 said: Quote: Bell Gurley Elliott Johnson I'm concerned that Arians is going to find ways to give touches to CJ.5K and Ellington and will limit David Johnson's upside. You aren't concerned that Elliot loses some touches to McFadden and Morris?

I think he could lose them early on. But Garrett has shown that he's willing to go bell cow if he has one on the team (see Demarco Murray), and I think Elliot is that guy by midseason. I'll live with some time share early with him.

Arians on the other hand likes to keep using different looks/packages to keep the D off balance, which is great for his team but not as good for FF - or at least not for DJ. If he shifts from that strategy and makes DJ his bell cow, I'll probably miss out on it.

I still load up on RBs early but now focus more on the elite WRs as well. I used to take two RBs early but lately I have gone in no particular order, RB, WR, WR, WR in first 4 rounds.

Roughly guess i'd say there are about 20 front line WRs that can start in your 3 wr FF lineup...you absolutely have to get 3 of them if you plan on doing anything in your league. Year's past there were less WRs...you'd be wise to load up on the elite RBs and piece together the WRs but not anymore.

Yeah, I usually go RB/WR.. that strategy netted me Peterson/Hopkins in one league and Lacy/Julio in another. Obviously Lacy was majorly disappointing but I still wound up going like 12-1 with that team.

I'm not a big fan of the zero RB thing.. I need one upper tier guy I can rely on. But it's always about value in the end. If I'm pitted at the tail end of a RB run, I like to look at WR because at that point, odds are someone has slipped and I can get good value.. same the other way around. I go into drafts with a loose strategy but I kind of let the rest of the league dictate what direction I go in because other people usually get sucked into position runs and reach for players... when they do that, I scoop the players they leave on the board.

Elliott's probably a top 3 pick in most due to his long term potential.

Surprised at how little love there is for Freeman. I'd certainly take him over Lacy.

And agree with those that said AP is a top 3 RB, especially in non-PPR. And I don't buy that he'll be anymore involved in the passing game this year. He has awful hands and still struggles in pass protection. But I can easily see the overall Viking offense being improved (OL additions, Treadwell, Bridgewater more experienced, etc) and leading to more TDs for AP.

In my experience, when you ignore RB in the first 3 rounds, it leads to a trickle down effect. While you can still get 2 good starting RBs, I find your RB bench depth sucks. And then if/when the inevitable RB injury bug hits one of your top 2 guys, you're pretty much stuck playing the waiver wire and hoping whichever matchup you played that week nets you a TD.

12 RBs finished with 200 pts or more. 2 of those Rbs were over 250. 1 was in 300s (Freeman)

In the same league, 27 WRs finished with over 200 pts. 2 more were just under so really it's 29 and many of these cats were very very young with room to improve. 18 of those were over 230. 7 were over 300. One was over 400.

What a difference from ten or so years ago.

with at least 1 RB, whether it's PPR or not. But I'm not going to force a pick on an RB if there's a WR I like better. If I end up going 3 WRs in the first 3 rounds, I know that I'll still be able to piece together the RB spots thru quantity later in the draft or off waivers during the year. It just might be a little more of a work in process until I have the right combination of guys on the roster.

is luck than most people would care to admit.

especially in H2H leagues, which I am exclusively in.

I have seen some old school people win with RB/RB still and people win with WR/WR. others go WR/RB or vice versa based on who is there.

In my league last year I had the 11th pick, the guy picking 10th was definitely going RB until at the last second he decided to take Odell Beckham. I got "stuck" with CJ Anderson as BPA at 11. Now this guy who picked #10 in the 2nd round picked Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, in the 3rd and Tom Brady in the 4th round.

He lost in the finals of our league.

I almost literally pissed my pants laughing when he announced the Peyton pick and then Brady to follow it up they almost had to carry me out on a stretcher I was laughing so hard.

He wound up only with Brady of the three, but he didn't even trade Brees or Peyton for anyone that great. IIRC he traded Brees for Golden Tate and Peyton for maybe Gio Bernard.

He drafted Larry Fitzgerald late, Doug Baldwin late, he had Denver D.

and he was the lowest scoring team in the playoffs, but somehow every week teams who played him scored less.

anyway, point is, I don't believe any one strategy is right all the time.

And then there is the waiver wire. don't get me started on that one. Who happens to have #1 waiver priority when Thomas Rawls breaks out, or CJ Anderson the year before, or Stefon Diggs (though he faded), or Devonta Freeman, etc. is somehow better or smarter than teams picking 2nd or 3rd in waiver order.

We're exploring an auction system for waivers this year. Has anyone done that? That way you theoretically have a shot at every waiver player (until your budget runs out).

and then load up on WRs. I can say that here and not worry because I don't draft with any of you! Taking the QB early is risky, maybe even foolish. You better get the best QB in the league or it was a mistake.

Corner the market on WRs. You won't regret it. Last year in one league I lost Bell. Alf Morris was useless. I still made the playoffs because Crabtree was my 4th best WR.

is definitely luck based. But there are sound strategies to go by that give one more margin for error.

.

pj.. that's why I don't go into drafts scripting my picks (i.e.. RB/WR/WR, etc)

My strategy is like 65% value to 35% need. I don't just take the best player on the board regardless of position, I have to take position into account but my primary focus is always trying to draft the best player rather than try to force a balanced roster. You always see guys pass on a big value WR in like round 4 or 5 because they don't have a RB2 yet and then they reach for someone just to fill the spot. I try to avoid doing that.

Plus, if I have a surplus at RB or WR and a deficit at the other, I can always look to trade to balance it out.

In comment 13013893 arcarsenal said:

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pj.. that's why I don't go into drafts scripting my picks (i.e.. RB/WR/WR, etc) My strategy is like 65% value to 35% need. I don't just take the best player on the board regardless of position, I have to take position into account but my primary focus is always trying to draft the best player rather than try to force a balanced roster. You always see guys pass on a big value WR in like round 4 or 5 because they don't have a RB2 yet and then they reach for someone just to fill the spot. I try to avoid doing that. Plus, if I have a surplus at RB or WR and a deficit at the other, I can always look to trade to balance it out.

I used to script a long time ago, and invariably would end up with players that I just didn't like or want on my team because they fit the "script". Now I just draft the best talent I can get and figure out the roster implications later.

it goes by pts scored so even if you lose but scored 110 pts one week, something that happened to me twice, you lose out on waiver order to the owner who scored less pts but still won. SO I lost my wwaiver request to the team that was 2-0 and then 4-0 because they scored less pts than me. Horse shit.

I am going to bring this up to the commish but he will probably ignore me as usual. I may not even join the league if it comes to that.

In comment 13013887 YAJ2112 said:

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.

What is FA AB?

Also, yes.. one of my leagues does auction waivers. Each team starts out with a $100 budget to use over the course of the year. During each waiver period, you have to bid on players you want. Highest bidder gets him.

Only other system I agree with is having teams with successful claims going to the end of the line starting with reverse draft order. Standings or point based always seemed stupid to me.

In comment 13013929 arcarsenal said:

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Also, yes.. one of my leagues does auction waivers. Each team starts out with a $100 budget to use over the course of the year. During each waiver period, you have to bid on players you want. Highest bidder gets him. Only other system I agree with is having teams with successful claims going to the end of the line starting with reverse draft order. Standings or point based always seemed stupid to me.

Yeah, reverse standing is the worst, especially early in the season.

we usually use priority rolling waiver, which is I guess fair, it starts with reverse draft order.

it's just luck based on having priority when the hot names come up.

we'll see about auction this year. might get voted in.

that it is dependent on how many claims you make and it rotates prioirity on how many moves you make throughout the season. I like this much more than what we did last year which screwed me, as it was based solely on record and pts. I faced easy teams in the beginning of the year, and could never utilize the waiver wire until i got a ton of injuries, and my record fell apart and it was too late. It gave preference to teams that drafted poorly which is total bullshit. Especially in a 14 team league, where every win is crucial. Glad we are switching to something more equal to everyone.

In comment 13013880 pjcas18 said:

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is luck than most people would care to admit. especially in H2H leagues, which I am exclusively in. I have seen some old school people win with RB/RB still and people win with WR/WR. others go WR/RB or vice versa based on who is there. In my league last year I had the 11th pick, the guy picking 10th was definitely going RB until at the last second he decided to take Odell Beckham. I got "stuck" with CJ Anderson as BPA at 11. Now this guy who picked #10 in the 2nd round picked Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, in the 3rd and Tom Brady in the 4th round. He lost in the finals of our league. I almost literally pissed my pants laughing when he announced the Peyton pick and then Brady to follow it up they almost had to carry me out on a stretcher I was laughing so hard. He wound up only with Brady of the three, but he didn't even trade Brees or Peyton for anyone that great. IIRC he traded Brees for Golden Tate and Peyton for maybe Gio Bernard. He drafted Larry Fitzgerald late, Doug Baldwin late, he had Denver D. and he was the lowest scoring team in the playoffs, but somehow every week teams who played him scored less. anyway, point is, I don't believe any one strategy is right all the time. And then there is the waiver wire. don't get me started on that one. Who happens to have #1 waiver priority when Thomas Rawls breaks out, or CJ Anderson the year before, or Stefon Diggs (though he faded), or Devonta Freeman, etc. is somehow better or smarter than teams picking 2nd or 3rd in waiver order. We're exploring an auction system for waivers this year. Has anyone done that? That way you theoretically have a shot at every waiver player (until your budget runs out).

Definitely prefer auctions over waivers. Just make sure whoever sets it up doesn't do something stupid. For example, 1 league I was in last year, you still had to pay $2 for players even if they passed through waivers unclaimed. And he basically snuck the rule in there so rather than putting $1 claims on guys, people were waiting until waivers cleared and then having to pay $2. Not to mention, it screwed up the playoffs since once you ran out of $$ there was no way to make moves.

And FFL is definitely a lot of luck. I destroyed everyone regular season last year. Averaged like 10 more pts/week than the next guy and was the highest scoring team at least 3-4 weeks. Playoffs came around and I was facing team with Cam Newton. Unfortunately Newton was playing the Giants. IIRC, his team set our league record in points that week...

In comment 13013573 LI NHB said:

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Is this a keeper league and he's not available? If this is a standard re-draft league, it would be curious to not include the reigning NFL rushing title holder in the top RB discussion.

Because in my eye he is the best rb period.

In comment 13013981 giants#1 said:

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In comment 13013880 pjcas18 said: Quote: is luck than most people would care to admit. especially in H2H leagues, which I am exclusively in. I have seen some old school people win with RB/RB still and people win with WR/WR. others go WR/RB or vice versa based on who is there. In my league last year I had the 11th pick, the guy picking 10th was definitely going RB until at the last second he decided to take Odell Beckham. I got "stuck" with CJ Anderson as BPA at 11. Now this guy who picked #10 in the 2nd round picked Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, in the 3rd and Tom Brady in the 4th round. He lost in the finals of our league. I almost literally pissed my pants laughing when he announced the Peyton pick and then Brady to follow it up they almost had to carry me out on a stretcher I was laughing so hard. He wound up only with Brady of the three, but he didn't even trade Brees or Peyton for anyone that great. IIRC he traded Brees for Golden Tate and Peyton for maybe Gio Bernard. He drafted Larry Fitzgerald late, Doug Baldwin late, he had Denver D. and he was the lowest scoring team in the playoffs, but somehow every week teams who played him scored less. anyway, point is, I don't believe any one strategy is right all the time. And then there is the waiver wire. don't get me started on that one. Who happens to have #1 waiver priority when Thomas Rawls breaks out, or CJ Anderson the year before, or Stefon Diggs (though he faded), or Devonta Freeman, etc. is somehow better or smarter than teams picking 2nd or 3rd in waiver order. We're exploring an auction system for waivers this year. Has anyone done that? That way you theoretically have a shot at every waiver player (until your budget runs out). Definitely prefer auctions over waivers. Just make sure whoever sets it up doesn't do something stupid. For example, 1 league I was in last year, you still had to pay $2 for players even if they passed through waivers unclaimed. And he basically snuck the rule in there so rather than putting $1 claims on guys, people were waiting until waivers cleared and then having to pay $2. Not to mention, it screwed up the playoffs since once you ran out of $$ there was no way to make moves. And FFL is definitely a lot of luck. I destroyed everyone regular season last year. Averaged like 10 more pts/week than the next guy and was the highest scoring team at least 3-4 weeks. Playoffs came around and I was facing team with Cam Newton. Unfortunately Newton was playing the Giants. IIRC, his team set our league record in points that week...

the set up for waivers proposed was you only need to bid on players on waivers, free agents (players who have cleared waivers) can be picked up at no cost as soon as they clear waivers. I think that's fair.

but not many in our league are used to calibrating just how much to allocate to any one specific player on waivers, so it should be interesting.

I'm in another league that simply has a 16 waiver claim limit and I absolutely hate that. bye weeks, injuries, poor play, I like working the waiver wires, so I always run out and am forced into trades.

I've read several times athletes have a harder road to recovery in MCL\PCL corrective repair surgeries when compared to ACL surgeries. Since surgery was done on Nov. 6th 2015, he basically just has 10 months recovery time to be active in week 1.

Most everyone is "expecting" him to automatically come back to form as the #1 fantasy RB, despite the short recovery time. He might come back early but will he fully be recovered, will he still favor the surgically repaired knee when not 100%, which could lead to other injuries?

Plus are we also discounting that Bell is on the NFL's Substance Abuse Program and one more incident will get him suspended for a full year? There was rumors a few weeks past that Bell skipped a mandatory drug test, which he denied. Although a full season suspension is just another risk to factory in addition to the knee injury when deciding to select Bell with a high draft pick.

If you do, better select DeAngelo Williams in the mid rounds as a handcuff.

not taking a risk on Dez? If Romo goes down, he becomes a top 30 WR. I have thrown hiim out of my top 10 to begin with.

In comment 13013927 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 13013887 YAJ2112 said: Quote: . What is FA AB?

Free Agent Acquisition Budget - AKA your bidding budget for FAs

In comment 13014046 dep026 said:

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not taking a risk on Dez? If Romo goes down, he becomes a top 30 WR. I have thrown hiim out of my top 10 to begin with.

I'd prefer to not wind up with him as my WR1 but it's going to be one of those things where I think he'll start to become undervalued and could slip enough to be a potential steal.

In comment 13014046 dep026 said:

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not taking a risk on Dez? If Romo goes down, he becomes a top 30 WR. I have thrown hiim out of my top 10 to begin with.

Walter Football top 10 WR rankings:

1. AB
2. OBJ
3. Jones
4. Hopkins
5. Nelson
6. Bryant
7. Green
8. Robinson
9. Benjamin
10. Cooper

my league is PPR, I'd probably take Green and Robinson ahead of Bryant, but I'd have a hard time taking Benjamin over him.

Cooper I have in my keeper league, but I'd think about that.

I might take Cooper over him too, making Bryant (based on Walter Football rankings) 8th or 9th ranked WR.

I've always thought Nelson was really underrated but he seems to be ranked a bit high on that list considering he's coming off an injury. I'd definitely take Green over him.. probably Robinson and possibly even Bryant.

Cooks and hilton continue to get less love. I think both have top 10 potential and it seemed cooks really turned it in to end the year.

In comment 13014150 arcarsenal said:

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I've always thought Nelson was really underrated but he seems to be ranked a bit high on that list considering he's coming off an injury. I'd definitely take Green over him.. probably Robinson and possibly even Bryant.

Nelson was injured pre-season and it's an ACL.

I think with rankings like this they're seeing how average Rodgers was without Nelson.

I guy I'd try and buy low on during the draft is Randall Cobb, he was one of the biggest disappointments in the entire league last year.

Either way, Nelson is a keeper in my league someone got him in the 16th round and kept him on the roster all year.

In comment 13014000 pjcas18 said:

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the set up for waivers proposed was you only need to bid on players on waivers, free agents (players who have cleared waivers) can be picked up at no cost as soon as they clear waivers. I think that's fair. but not many in our league are used to calibrating just how much to allocate to any one specific player on waivers, so it should be interesting. I'm in another league that simply has a 16 waiver claim limit and I absolutely hate that. bye weeks, injuries, poor play, I like working the waiver wires, so I always run out and am forced into trades.

Definitely takes some time to calibrate your claims and get a feel for others in your league.

he could get 300 carries this year - especially with McFadden injured

In comment 13014168 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 13014150 arcarsenal said: Quote: I've always thought Nelson was really underrated but he seems to be ranked a bit high on that list considering he's coming off an injury. I'd definitely take Green over him.. probably Robinson and possibly even Bryant. Nelson was injured pre-season and it's an ACL. I think with rankings like this they're seeing how average Rodgers was without Nelson. I guy I'd try and buy low on during the draft is Randall Cobb, he was one of the biggest disappointments in the entire league last year. Either way, Nelson is a keeper in my league someone got him in the 16th round and kept him on the roster all year.

I still like Nelson a lot I just don't think I'd take him over AJ and I'd have to think long and hard about taking him over ARob/Dez though I could see doing that.

Cobb will benefit big time from Nelson coming back. He was miscast in his absence and his performance suffered big time. He's still a really dynamic player with big value.

arcarsenal said:

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In comment 13014168 pjcas18 said: Quote: In comment 13014150 arcarsenal said: Quote: I've always thought Nelson was really underrated but he seems to be ranked a bit high on that list considering he's coming off an injury. I'd definitely take Green over him.. probably Robinson and possibly even Bryant. Nelson was injured pre-season and it's an ACL. I think with rankings like this they're seeing how average Rodgers was without Nelson. I guy I'd try and buy low on during the draft is Randall Cobb, he was one of the biggest disappointments in the entire league last year. Either way, Nelson is a keeper in my league someone got him in the 16th round and kept him on the roster all year. I still like Nelson a lot I just don't think I'd take him over AJ and I'd have to think long and hard about taking him over ARob/Dez though I could see doing that. Cobb will benefit big time from Nelson coming back. He was miscast in his absence and his performance suffered big time. He's still a really dynamic player with big value.

Sleeper on that Packers offense is the race for the #3 WR, which I think Jeff Janis will win.

He's off the charts type athlete, whose playing time consisted of scoring 5 TDs in 7 pre-season games and then broke out in last years playoffs.

From all reports from Packers beat writers, he's been uncover-able by their DBs. Although he's extremely raw but has a lot of untapped potential in that offense.

built last year I would not count Aberderis out for that 3rd WR in GB. He had a few games where they he and Rodgers just seemed to click.

However, based on draft status I still believe it's Davante Adams' job to lose.

pjcas18 said:

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built last year I would not count Aberderis out for that 3rd WR in GB. He had a few games where they he and Rodgers just seemed to click. However, based on draft status I still believe it's Davante Adams' job to lose.

That #3 WR job will come down to between Davante Adams, Jeff Janis, Ty Montgomery, Jared Abbrederis and rookie Trevor Davis are all in the mix.

I just think Janis provides the most upside from that group.

Do you take Beckham?

In comment 13014821 OC2.0 said:

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Do you take Beckham?

As high as possible, he's a top 3-5 pick in any format.

I generally start doing mock drafts over at ESPN starting August to get a feel for where people are going. Lately my strategy has been go W/R in first 3 rounds since thats where value has been then fill in at QB/RB as best I can. Last 2 years I've found late round gems or waivers at TE like that dude from Cleveland last year.

In comment 13013988 superspynyg said:

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In comment 13013573 LI NHB said: Because in my eye he is the best rb period.

You and I both, sir.