FF thread

I would go LeVeon Bell first for PPR.

Bell is still the top RB for me. Gurley is right underneath him.

I'd go Bell, Gurley, Johnson, Elliott

I do like Lacy to have a big bounceback year. He's going to be in better shape this year and more focused. He's still really young and he's still got it.

WR's will depend on the Jet QB situation for Marshall but I'm taking A-Rob first out of those 3 with Marshall after him and then Allen.

I always wait on QB. I think you can find better value later. Alot of people wasted a 1 or 2 on Luck last year. Don't make that mistake.

Bell
Gurley
Elliott
Johnson

I'm concerned that Arians is going to find ways to give touches to CJ.5K and Ellington and will limit David Johnson's upside.

are clearly ahead of Zeke who's just a rookie. Until a rookie actually plays like a FF stud he's not a FF stud. Johnson will split time but he's a good player in a good offense. Out of all the handcuffed RBs I think Johnson is probably the best of the bunch.

Bell is the clear cut #1 RB. He got hurt early in the year so should be ready to go by camp.

Robinson
Allen
Marshall

I'd rather take Jordan Reed with the 3rd rounder than Cam, wouldn't take Rodgers there at all. I'd take one of them in the 4th if the WR/RB talent is gone (haven't figured out where I'm drawing that line yet).

Luck/Ben are going in the 5th/early 6th round. Again, depending on where my team is at and what's on the board I'd consider them there. I'd likely wait at that point and grab a Bortles or Palmer or Eli a couple of rounds later.

Didn't Arians say that Johnson would be his bell cow?

with any of those rbs. all can run and catch.

wait on QB. you can get Eli in round 7-8. he has a ton of weapons as we know. And will be a top fantasy player this year.

Robinson is young with a big arm qb. take him. Do you really think Fitz is going to repeat last year?

Is this a keeper league and he's not available?

If this is a standard re-draft league, it would be curious to not include the reigning NFL rushing title holder in the top RB discussion.

and I don't think he's a well rounded back(no pun intended). That being said, he will be better than last year...almost impossible not to be. I wouldn't touch him in the first few rounds, but that's me. Still early to rank guys, but at this point, I probably would take a chance in 4 or 5 on Lacy.

Bell is the man. He does it all from a FF perspective. Obviously the knee injury is a major concern. He's so good that he can't take too much of a hit, but I probably won't take him at the top of the 1st even though when healthy he's a top 3 player.

I think Gurley is a great back, but he's not someone I rank 1st. In regards to RB's, I don't like to take chances on guys that don't have a history. He had a great rookie season, but didn't catch the ball at all. He's a back of the 1st, early 2nd round guy for me.

Elliot? Again, at this point in the offseason, it's really hard to gauge how he's going to be used. I'm certainly not taking him too high.

David Johnson might not even be the starter. He's going to split carries with Chris.

The guy you left off that I like the most is Adrian Peterson. To me, this early, it's:

Peterson
Bell
Gurley


Lacy
Elliot

Johnson

With guys in between.

sees a decrease in his normal workload especially coming off his injury.

I would put David Johnson at 2 and Gurley at 3. If Elliot is used as the workhorse and he is able to handle it I can see him moving ahead of Gurley.

Mark Ingram was a sneakily good FF RB last year before his shoulder injury. He's someone I have my eye on again this year.

In comment 13013563 superspynyg said:

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Didn't Arians say that Johnson would be his bell cow?

He also praised CJ and Ellington in the next breath and said it would be "a great competition in our backfield this year". I try to ignore coach speak in the offseason.

non-PPR, I'd probably keep the order the same though that closes the gap between Bell/Gurley. I'd probably still put AP 5th on that list.

to be a top 3 RB this year. And he has always been the biggest dick tease out of them all.

Good team
Good offensive philosophy
Good defense
Weak division
Goal line back
Catches passes
Head Coach who LOVES using his RB a lot....


Your 2016 RB of the year....


Lamar Miller.

In comment 13013588 dep026 said:

Quote:

to be a top 3 RB this year. And he has always been the biggest dick tease out of them all. Good team Good offensive philosophy Good defense Weak division Goal line back Catches passes Head Coach who LOVES using his RB a lot.... Your 2016 RB of the year.... Lamar Miller.

Top 3? No way, imo. They drafted Tyler Irvin to specifically use in the passing game so I don't know how often he will be used in the pass game.

I could see Miller in the top 5 this year. Top 3? I don't know, man.. I think that's too bullish.

will be used a lot in the passing game, he is a very good receiver. Irving will be a spot player.

And I really like Miller in PPR leagues this year. Foster was ALWAYS a monster in BoB offense. He is going to fill the void quite nicely.

In comment 13013597 dep026 said:

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will be used a lot in the passing game, he is a very good receiver. Irving will be a spot player. And I really like Miller in PPR leagues this year. Foster was ALWAYS a monster in BoB offense. He is going to fill the void quite nicely.

Always? He played in 17 games in 2 years with O'Brien there.

His coaches in Miami refused to use him as the workhorse. Fans automatically assume that he can handle more of a workload. He may not be able to handle it. There is no doubt he is a good player but there is a chance that Miami knew exactly how to handle his workload. Top 3 is being overally optimistic. I would not draft him like he will finish there. If he is sitting around at a certain point in the draft where you think he will out perform expectations and those players available then take him. You are making him sound like a first round pick and that is way too early. I would focus more on proven WRs. I would say if Miller is sitting there at the end of round 2 then that is good value.

to be able to handle a full load. He's a really good back and I'd watch Miami and wonder why they didn't give him more work, but he's never done it. That adds a little level of risk for me that I'm not taking early in a draft.

Adrian Peterson is as sure of a thing that there can be to me. He's my #1 back.

If Peterson is in the equation he'd be my top back in non-PPR.. Bell is still at the top for me in PPR. Peterson would be sandwiched between he and TGIII.

I would probably take Freeman over Elliott in PPR. I think Elliott is going to be very good but I feel like he's getting too much love for a guy who hasn't proven anything yet.

In comment 13013588 dep026 said:

Quote:

to be a top 3 RB this year. And he has always been the biggest dick tease out of them all. Good team Good offensive philosophy Good defense Weak division Goal line back Catches passes Head Coach who LOVES using his RB a lot.... Your 2016 RB of the year.... Lamar Miller.

shhh

In comment 13013636 YAJ2112 said:

Quote:

In comment 13013588 dep026 said: Quote: to be a top 3 RB this year. And he has always been the biggest dick tease out of them all. Good team Good offensive philosophy Good defense Weak division Goal line back Catches passes Head Coach who LOVES using his RB a lot.... Your 2016 RB of the year.... Lamar Miller. shhh

I agree. Shhh. Let the haters hate and maybe he falls to me.

not including his first game back last year in the blowout against atlanta.... foster posted for BoB.

1400 yards rushing
9 rushing TDs
87 targets
60 catches
554 yards receiving
7 TDs

And this is being banged up and no QB.

In comment 13013631 arcarsenal said:

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If Peterson is in the equation he'd be my top back in non-PPR.. Bell is still at the top for me in PPR. Peterson would be sandwiched between he and TGIII. I would probably take Freeman over Elliott in PPR. I think Elliott is going to be very good but I feel like he's getting too much love for a guy who hasn't proven anything yet.

I need to factor in Bells situation. First of all, they already said they want Peterson to be more a part of the passing game, so I do expect a slight uptick in catches. Maybe 45-50. Secondly, Bell is a FA RB coming back from a major knee injury which can be devastating for RB's. He's not expected to return until mid preseason. I also think he's going to protect himself knowing he has a big payday. Lastly, when I choose a RB early, I want the least amount of risk as possible. There is already so much risk with RB's that adding more is dangerous. To me, Peterson has 0 risk of being a top tier RB, other than a freak injury.

In comment 13013552 YAJ2112 said:

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Bell Gurley Elliott Johnson I'm concerned that Arians is going to find ways to give touches to CJ.5K and Ellington and will limit David Johnson's upside.

You aren't concerned that Elliot loses some touches to McFadden and Morris?

In comment 13013669 Keith said:

Quote:

In comment 13013631 arcarsenal said: Quote: If Peterson is in the equation he'd be my top back in non-PPR.. Bell is still at the top for me in PPR. Peterson would be sandwiched between he and TGIII. I would probably take Freeman over Elliott in PPR. I think Elliott is going to be very good but I feel like he's getting too much love for a guy who hasn't proven anything yet. I need to factor in Bells situation. First of all, they already said they want Peterson to be more a part of the passing game, so I do expect a slight uptick in catches. Maybe 45-50. Secondly, Bell is a FA RB coming back from a major knee injury which can be devastating for RB's. He's not expected to return until mid preseason. I also think he's going to protect himself knowing he has a big payday. Lastly, when I choose a RB early, I want the least amount of risk as possible. There is already so much risk with RB's that adding more is dangerous. To me, Peterson has 0 risk of being a top tier RB, other than a freak injury.

Yeah, Peterson has the least risk involved. He's still a freak and I worry the least about him getting injured (though anything could happen) or getting touches vultured.. I still think I'd take Bell in PPR but this is 2 months from now so there could be developments that make me change that stance.

Way too early to make definitive statements. A lot is going to change.

He wants to pass but never had a QB so you can look at that and say Foster was still able to produce or you can say he didn't have much of a choice and had to force feed him the ball. They also abusee him knowing he wasn't goijg to be there long term.

I don't think anybody is saying Miller is not a good back. We are really only providing reasons why he is most likely not a top 3 back like you proclaimed.

In comment 13013588 dep026 said:

Quote:

to be a top 3 RB this year. And he has always been the biggest dick tease out of them all. Good team Good offensive philosophy Good defense Weak division Goal line back Catches passes Head Coach who LOVES using his RB a lot.... Your 2016 RB of the year.... Lamar Miller.

That fucker has burned me way to many times.

draft WR instead of RB in the top 10 in a standard scoring league?

In comment 13013728 leatherneck570 said:

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draft WR instead of RB in the top 10 in a standard scoring league?

Depends on where you're drafting. If it's towards the back (8, 9, 10) you could grab an elite WR and then a good RB on the turn.

and I am seriously considering drafting a WR with my first pick.

and I apologize for that. I guess where I was going with that was more of a zero RB strategy the first few rounds (after Bell and Peterson are off the board of course).

my 1st round RB (Lacey) didn't do shit.

and my top 3 picks, barring injury, are

Brown
Beckham
Julio

And I really cant see anything changing my mind..

In comment 13013769 leatherneck570 said:

Quote:

and I apologize for that. I guess where I was going with that was more of a zero RB strategy the first few rounds (after Bell and Peterson are off the board of course).

Ahh, I see. I've used this strategy many times. It's the best when you have the 10th pick because, you can guarantee yourself 2 elite WR or, an relive WR and an elite TE. Then, when it finally gets back to you, you can take the best RB available. If nothing is intriguing there, take another WR or, best TE available.

I love drafting at 10. Waiting sucks but, having two picks in a row is always nice.

I try to get a WR/RB in the first 2 rounds. Obviously you don't want to reach, but there is usually a top tier WR/RB available in each rd. Most top tier RB's go in the first round which leaves WR's for the 2nd round.

but Zeke will be over drafted this summer. Dallas, high pick and their OL will have fans going nuts over his potential but he's still a rookie who has yet to prove he can handle the load in the NFL.

I'd love Elliot in round 4-5 but he will go in round 1-2. And that's absurd.

In comment 13013836 djm said:

Quote:

but Zeke will be over drafted this summer. Dallas, high pick and their OL will have fans going nuts over his potential but he's still a rookie who has yet to prove he can handle the load in the NFL. I'd love Elliot in round 4-5 but he will go in round 1-2. And that's absurd.

A guy in my keeper league (slightly skewed because the available players are less) has the second pick and has already said if Zeke doesn't go #1, he's taking him #2. He's a Cowboys fan, but I hear that sentiment from others too.

In comment 13013674 Heisenberg said:

Quote:

In comment 13013552 YAJ2112 said: Quote: Bell Gurley Elliott Johnson I'm concerned that Arians is going to find ways to give touches to CJ.5K and Ellington and will limit David Johnson's upside. You aren't concerned that Elliot loses some touches to McFadden and Morris?

I think he could lose them early on. But Garrett has shown that he's willing to go bell cow if he has one on the team (see Demarco Murray), and I think Elliot is that guy by midseason. I'll live with some time share early with him.

Arians on the other hand likes to keep using different looks/packages to keep the D off balance, which is great for his team but not as good for FF - or at least not for DJ. If he shifts from that strategy and makes DJ his bell cow, I'll probably miss out on it.

I still load up on RBs early but now focus more on the elite WRs as well. I used to take two RBs early but lately I have gone in no particular order, RB, WR, WR, WR in first 4 rounds.

Roughly guess i'd say there are about 20 front line WRs that can start in your 3 wr FF lineup...you absolutely have to get 3 of them if you plan on doing anything in your league. Year's past there were less WRs...you'd be wise to load up on the elite RBs and piece together the WRs but not anymore.

Yeah, I usually go RB/WR.. that strategy netted me Peterson/Hopkins in one league and Lacy/Julio in another. Obviously Lacy was majorly disappointing but I still wound up going like 12-1 with that team.

I'm not a big fan of the zero RB thing.. I need one upper tier guy I can rely on. But it's always about value in the end. If I'm pitted at the tail end of a RB run, I like to look at WR because at that point, odds are someone has slipped and I can get good value.. same the other way around. I go into drafts with a loose strategy but I kind of let the rest of the league dictate what direction I go in because other people usually get sucked into position runs and reach for players... when they do that, I scoop the players they leave on the board.

Elliott's probably a top 3 pick in most due to his long term potential.

Surprised at how little love there is for Freeman. I'd certainly take him over Lacy.

And agree with those that said AP is a top 3 RB, especially in non-PPR. And I don't buy that he'll be anymore involved in the passing game this year. He has awful hands and still struggles in pass protection. But I can easily see the overall Viking offense being improved (OL additions, Treadwell, Bridgewater more experienced, etc) and leading to more TDs for AP.

In my experience, when you ignore RB in the first 3 rounds, it leads to a trickle down effect. While you can still get 2 good starting RBs, I find your RB bench depth sucks. And then if/when the inevitable RB injury bug hits one of your top 2 guys, you're pretty much stuck playing the waiver wire and hoping whichever matchup you played that week nets you a TD.

12 RBs finished with 200 pts or more. 2 of those Rbs were over 250. 1 was in 300s (Freeman)

In the same league, 27 WRs finished with over 200 pts. 2 more were just under so really it's 29 and many of these cats were very very young with room to improve. 18 of those were over 230. 7 were over 300. One was over 400.

What a difference from ten or so years ago.

with at least 1 RB, whether it's PPR or not. But I'm not going to force a pick on an RB if there's a WR I like better. If I end up going 3 WRs in the first 3 rounds, I know that I'll still be able to piece together the RB spots thru quantity later in the draft or off waivers during the year. It just might be a little more of a work in process until I have the right combination of guys on the roster.

is luck than most people would care to admit.

especially in H2H leagues, which I am exclusively in.

I have seen some old school people win with RB/RB still and people win with WR/WR. others go WR/RB or vice versa based on who is there.

In my league last year I had the 11th pick, the guy picking 10th was definitely going RB until at the last second he decided to take Odell Beckham. I got "stuck" with CJ Anderson as BPA at 11. Now this guy who picked #10 in the 2nd round picked Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, in the 3rd and Tom Brady in the 4th round.

He lost in the finals of our league.

I almost literally pissed my pants laughing when he announced the Peyton pick and then Brady to follow it up they almost had to carry me out on a stretcher I was laughing so hard.

He wound up only with Brady of the three, but he didn't even trade Brees or Peyton for anyone that great. IIRC he traded Brees for Golden Tate and Peyton for maybe Gio Bernard.

He drafted Larry Fitzgerald late, Doug Baldwin late, he had Denver D.

and he was the lowest scoring team in the playoffs, but somehow every week teams who played him scored less.

anyway, point is, I don't believe any one strategy is right all the time.

And then there is the waiver wire. don't get me started on that one. Who happens to have #1 waiver priority when Thomas Rawls breaks out, or CJ Anderson the year before, or Stefon Diggs (though he faded), or Devonta Freeman, etc. is somehow better or smarter than teams picking 2nd or 3rd in waiver order.

We're exploring an auction system for waivers this year. Has anyone done that? That way you theoretically have a shot at every waiver player (until your budget runs out).

and then load up on WRs. I can say that here and not worry because I don't draft with any of you! Taking the QB early is risky, maybe even foolish. You better get the best QB in the league or it was a mistake.

Corner the market on WRs. You won't regret it. Last year in one league I lost Bell. Alf Morris was useless. I still made the playoffs because Crabtree was my 4th best WR.

is definitely luck based. But there are sound strategies to go by that give one more margin for error.

.