Â
|
|
Quote: |
Michael Gove’s sensational entry to the Tory leadership race has electrified a contest that had hitherto been proceeding predictably enough towards a final round between Theresa May and Boris Johnson. The justice secretary’s statement tore up the script and, extraordinarily, persuaded the former London mayor not to run.... Third, and most unexpectedly, he declares explicitly that he is entering the race because: “Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead.” During the referendum campaign, it had become commonplace to speak of the “Johnson-Gove axis”, and to assume that the formidable duo had forged a bond that might sweep them to No 10 and control of the government. Not so, it would appear. Yesterday’s leaked email from Gove’s wife, the journalist Sarah Vine, hinted that all was not well in Borisland. In the message, she reminded her husband that his presence on the ticket was intended to reassure press barons who did not warm to Johnson. In return, she said, Boris must give “SPECIFIC assurances” to Gove. One surmises that those assurances were not forthcoming – or that yesterday’s “crucial meetings”, referred to in the email, yielded additional problems.... For Johnson, to be abandoned by the guarantor of his candidacy and his most exalted supporter – and at this particular stage – is the worst setback in his political career. He faced direct competition with a man who, so to speak, knows where all the ballots are buried. |
Smh.
Interesting analysis this AM in NYT as to whether the EU is "democratic", one of the main arguments of those who supported the exit:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/world/europe/the-eu-is-democratic-it-just-doesnt-feel-that-way.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
If anything, the EU's reaction to Brexit has actually strengthened their resolve to leave.
YouGov / Channel 5 Survey Results - ( New Window )
If anything, the EU's reaction to Brexit has actually strengthened their resolve to leave. YouGov / Channel 5 Survey Results - ( New Window )
Wanting a revote is not necessarily a proxy for buyers remorse. What's interesting is the unweighted sampling was 824 remain and 743 leave voters. I suspect that some of the buyers remorse Leave voters would just tell a pollster that they voted Remain. Lying to pollsters is a well known phenomenon. E.g. the Bradley/Wilder effect -- black candidate for LA mayor lost despite significant lead in polls and exit polls. It has been theorized that some white voters lied to pollsters due to social desirability bias, i.e. not wanting to give an answer that they thought could open themselves up to criticism. Similarly, it wouldnt surprise me if some remorseful Leave voters are just saying they were Leave voters.
I assume there are remorseful Leave voters given media quotes from such people. I dont make any assumptions about whether it is a negligible percentage of people.
I'm not going to pretend I followed this closely. I assumed like everyone else a significant if somewhat uncomfortable margin for Remain (maybe 8-10%) until a couple days before the vote, and at that point I tried to pay attention somewhat.
The British are very proud people. When they saw the EU's reaction to Nigel Farage's speech this week, it did not sit well with them.
Nigel Farage EU Exit Speech In European Parliament - ( New Window )
I think a part of it, but not all, is voters telling pollsters what they think they want them to ay out of fear of retaliation.
njm, yes, hyperbolic currently, but almost certainly Sturgeon will press for another referendum on Scotland's continuing membership in the Kingdom, or at a minimum, press for reform on the conditions of membership--do you believe that is hyperbole? I listened to an interview she gave yesterday, and one or both seem firmly in play.
I was impressed by her handling of the defeat, was it 2015? I think she is held in the highest of regard by Scottish electorate.
The British are very proud people. When they saw the EU's reaction to Nigel Farage's speech this week, it did not sit well with them. Nigel Farage EU Exit Speech In European Parliament - ( New Window )
The "desire" to re-vote is a media creation more than anything else. The media, and others on the losing side, are perpetuating this myth. In general there is nothing more going on than the normal griping after an election. One may ask why the American and EU media take sides, but thats a different question. From everything I can see and read, there is no driving force to re-vote on anything. 3 Million votes means nothing, especially since most of these are likely remain voters anyway.
The British are very proud people. When they saw the EU's reaction to Nigel Farage's speech this week, it did not sit well with them. Nigel Farage EU Exit Speech In European Parliament - ( New Window )
Maybe. I think you're probably painting with way too broad a brush. Farage is not a popular person even if he was a main proponent of Leave, and Leave won. Some people probably didnt like it, some people probably liked it.
Americans are a proud people. There were also a lot of Americans who loved that Netanyahu is disrespectful of Obama. By your logic that shouldnt have happened.
Not really. There is a lot of serious talk about the UK breaking up with N. Ireland and Scotland going a different way.
BBC: Second EU referendum petition investigated for fraud - ( New Window )
Quote:
Holy hyperbole, Batman.
Not really. There is a lot of serious talk about the UK breaking up with N. Ireland and Scotland going a different way.
Even that is far from clear at this point. The first minister of Scotland was rebuffed and rather embarrassed by the President of the EU, and whether the Scots want to admit it or not they benefit much more from free trade with their southern neighbor than they do from free trade with the continent.
Quote:
In comment 13015210 njm said:
Quote:
Holy hyperbole, Batman.
Not really. There is a lot of serious talk about the UK breaking up with N. Ireland and Scotland going a different way.
Even that is far from clear at this point. The first minister of Scotland was rebuffed and rather embarrassed by the President of the EU, and whether the Scots want to admit it or not they benefit much more from free trade with their southern neighbor than they do from free trade with the continent.
Who said it was clear? My point was just that mention "what is left" of Britain isnt some crazy hyperbole. It's at least in play that some constituent territories could bolt.
Scotland is now, perhaps, in a better position to (re-)negotiate its terms? It remains the only source of oil production in the UK, and with uncertainty over England's economy in light of Brexit rising, do the ties that bind evolve a bit?
Scotland is now, perhaps, in a better position to (re-)negotiate its terms? It remains the only source of oil production in the UK, and with uncertainty over England's economy in light of Brexit rising, do the ties that bind evolve a bit?
What this will do is give more fuel to the fire of those who voted for Scotland to leave the UK. I'm sure they will try again now. There is no right or wrong answer, its nothing more than power and politics. I do think that leaving the UK will hurt Scotland more than help them, but the "thinking" would be similar to the UK leaving the EU.
njm, yes, hyperbolic currently, but almost certainly Sturgeon will press for another referendum on Scotland's continuing membership in the Kingdom, or at a minimum, press for reform on the conditions of membership--do you believe that is hyperbole? I listened to an interview she gave yesterday, and one or both seem firmly in play.
I was impressed by her handling of the defeat, was it 2015? I think she is held in the highest of regard by Scottish electorate.
I was talking about the here and now. That can't be ruled out, but I'd guess not before 2018-2020.
Animal spirits seem to be in the ascendancy all over--and the popular notion is that nation holds out more promise than (multi-state) union and trade pacts. It seems we're on the cusp of a dangerous period, and there are many irresponsible voices over the land.
This would seem to impact Eric's area of expertise in particular.
Alert the Media -- There's Bullshit in Politics !!!
The only ray of enlightenment to come out of the whole thing is the UK Primary Cycle, which takes 24 hours to choose a candidate.
I don't think that can be determined at this point. I realize the markets are by no means the only determinant, but after wild swings in both directions there are pretty much right where they were before the vote.
Reaching a conclusion at this point is way premature.
You really think the British public, and particularly the press, will forget that Johnson was one of the top voices of the "Leave" movement? If the shit DOES hit the fan, by no means a certainty, Johnson will play no part in a rescue.
Quote:
The Leaders of the "Leave" contingent promoted their cause by saying there would be minimal economic impact. That turned out to be a bunch of baloney.
I don't think that can be determined at this point. I realize the markets are by no means the only determinant, but after wild swings in both directions there are pretty much right where they were before the vote.
Reaching a conclusion at this point is way premature.
Agree with your broader point, but the idea that the British markets are where they started looks only at the FTSE 100. That is concentrated with some international businesses that were always going to be sheltered from the storm. FTSE 250 is broader based and is still down 6+%
So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.
Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.
Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful.
Clear?