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NFT: Boris Johnson: out of running to succeed Cameron

ColHowPepper : 6/30/2016 8:56 am
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/30/michael-gove-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-downing-street

After London's mayor led the Brexit campaign, and now amid buyer's remorse, according to many, and the chaotic absence of plan to lead Britain (or what remains of it) out of the EU, Boris Johnson has bowed out of the running to succeed PM Cameron.

Quote:
Michael Gove’s sensational entry to the Tory leadership race has electrified a contest that had hitherto been proceeding predictably enough towards a final round between Theresa May and Boris Johnson. The justice secretary’s statement tore up the script and, extraordinarily, persuaded the former London mayor not to run....

Third, and most unexpectedly, he declares explicitly that he is entering the race because: “Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead.” During the referendum campaign, it had become commonplace to speak of the “Johnson-Gove axis”, and to assume that the formidable duo had forged a bond that might sweep them to No 10 and control of the government.

Not so, it would appear. Yesterday’s leaked email from Gove’s wife, the journalist Sarah Vine, hinted that all was not well in Borisland. In the message, she reminded her husband that his presence on the ticket was intended to reassure press barons who did not warm to Johnson. In return, she said, Boris must give “SPECIFIC assurances” to Gove. One surmises that those assurances were not forthcoming – or that yesterday’s “crucial meetings”, referred to in the email, yielded additional problems....

For Johnson, to be abandoned by the guarantor of his candidacy and his most exalted supporter – and at this particular stage – is the worst setback in his political career. He faced direct competition with a man who, so to speak, knows where all the ballots are buried.


This is not your father's UK....
Buyers  
Jon in NYC : 6/30/2016 9:15 am : link
remorse for a major decision made one week ago.

Smh.
I don't think it's buyer's remorse...  
Dunedin81 : 6/30/2016 9:17 am : link
A surprise victory by an entity that didn't expect to take power and is now trying to figure out whether their back-bench/campaign leadership is the leadership they want running the country.
given that the final tally was "close"  
ColHowPepper : 6/30/2016 9:26 am : link
17.4 million to 16.1 million, it's no surprise that the aftermath of the referendum would be a swarm of recrimination, chest thumping, and questioning, it does appear that the conversation in the UK has morphed a bit: claims by both sides that the "facts" of a Brexit were wrong, e.g., how much funding would become available after Brexit to fund national health service (much less than claimed), and the absence of a plan by Brexit leaders to move forward after a winning vote, how much will immigration policy actually be affected....

Interesting analysis this AM in NYT as to whether the EU is "democratic", one of the main arguments of those who supported the exit:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/world/europe/the-eu-is-democratic-it-just-doesnt-feel-that-way.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
According  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 6/30/2016 9:27 am : link
to a recent YouGov poll, people in Britain do NOT support a second referendum by a 2-to-1 margin.

If anything, the EU's reaction to Brexit has actually strengthened their resolve to leave.
YouGov / Channel 5 Survey Results - ( New Window )
Dunedin  
ColHowPepper : 6/30/2016 9:30 am : link
What's your sense, if you happened to have been following it at the time, of Cameron's concession some time ago, to give in to the Conservatives who opposed him on the EU and concede the referendum. It seems this is still playing itself out, in some disarray...
RE: According  
Deej : 6/30/2016 9:40 am : link
In comment 13015154 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
to a recent YouGov poll, people in Britain do NOT support a second referendum by a 2-to-1 margin.

If anything, the EU's reaction to Brexit has actually strengthened their resolve to leave. YouGov / Channel 5 Survey Results - ( New Window )


Wanting a revote is not necessarily a proxy for buyers remorse. What's interesting is the unweighted sampling was 824 remain and 743 leave voters. I suspect that some of the buyers remorse Leave voters would just tell a pollster that they voted Remain. Lying to pollsters is a well known phenomenon. E.g. the Bradley/Wilder effect -- black candidate for LA mayor lost despite significant lead in polls and exit polls. It has been theorized that some white voters lied to pollsters due to social desirability bias, i.e. not wanting to give an answer that they thought could open themselves up to criticism. Similarly, it wouldnt surprise me if some remorseful Leave voters are just saying they were Leave voters.

I assume there are remorseful Leave voters given media quotes from such people. I dont make any assumptions about whether it is a negligible percentage of people.
RE: Dunedin  
Dunedin81 : 6/30/2016 9:49 am : link
In comment 13015163 ColHowPepper said:
Quote:
What's your sense, if you happened to have been following it at the time, of Cameron's concession some time ago, to give in to the Conservatives who opposed him on the EU and concede the referendum. It seems this is still playing itself out, in some disarray...


I'm not going to pretend I followed this closely. I assumed like everyone else a significant if somewhat uncomfortable margin for Remain (maybe 8-10%) until a couple days before the vote, and at that point I tried to pay attention somewhat.
Deej  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 6/30/2016 9:49 am : link
You're correct about the polls having not been a good indicator. But if anything, people have not wanted to admit they wanted to leave or the polls were agenda based because most of the polls were simply dead wrong in favor of Remain.

The British are very proud people. When they saw the EU's reaction to Nigel Farage's speech this week, it did not sit well with them.
Nigel Farage EU Exit Speech In European Parliament - ( New Window )
Or what remains of it?  
njm : 6/30/2016 9:52 am : link
Holy hyperbole, Batman.
Beware of UK polling  
njm : 6/30/2016 9:57 am : link
Between their huge miss on Cameron's last election and a smaller, but clear miss on Brexit something's amiss in polling land.

I think a part of it, but not all, is voters telling pollsters what they think they want them to ay out of fear of retaliation.
Eric, njm  
ColHowPepper : 6/30/2016 10:00 am : link
Eric, good stuff, thanks

njm, yes, hyperbolic currently, but almost certainly Sturgeon will press for another referendum on Scotland's continuing membership in the Kingdom, or at a minimum, press for reform on the conditions of membership--do you believe that is hyperbole? I listened to an interview she gave yesterday, and one or both seem firmly in play.

I was impressed by her handling of the defeat, was it 2015? I think she is held in the highest of regard by Scottish electorate.
RE: Deej  
PatersonPlank : 6/30/2016 10:00 am : link
In comment 13015199 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
You're correct about the polls having not been a good indicator. But if anything, people have not wanted to admit they wanted to leave or the polls were agenda based because most of the polls were simply dead wrong in favor of Remain.

The British are very proud people. When they saw the EU's reaction to Nigel Farage's speech this week, it did not sit well with them. Nigel Farage EU Exit Speech In European Parliament - ( New Window )


The "desire" to re-vote is a media creation more than anything else. The media, and others on the losing side, are perpetuating this myth. In general there is nothing more going on than the normal griping after an election. One may ask why the American and EU media take sides, but thats a different question. From everything I can see and read, there is no driving force to re-vote on anything. 3 Million votes means nothing, especially since most of these are likely remain voters anyway.
RE: Deej  
Deej : 6/30/2016 10:01 am : link
In comment 13015199 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:

The British are very proud people. When they saw the EU's reaction to Nigel Farage's speech this week, it did not sit well with them. Nigel Farage EU Exit Speech In European Parliament - ( New Window )


Maybe. I think you're probably painting with way too broad a brush. Farage is not a popular person even if he was a main proponent of Leave, and Leave won. Some people probably didnt like it, some people probably liked it.

Americans are a proud people. There were also a lot of Americans who loved that Netanyahu is disrespectful of Obama. By your logic that shouldnt have happened.
RE: Or what remains of it?  
Deej : 6/30/2016 10:02 am : link
In comment 13015210 njm said:
Quote:
Holy hyperbole, Batman.


Not really. There is a lot of serious talk about the UK breaking up with N. Ireland and Scotland going a different way.
PatersonPlank  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 6/30/2016 10:04 am : link
The 3 million petition? They've already had to remove 77,000 names due to fraud.
BBC: Second EU referendum petition investigated for fraud - ( New Window )
RE: RE: Or what remains of it?  
Dunedin81 : 6/30/2016 10:06 am : link
In comment 13015234 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 13015210 njm said:


Quote:


Holy hyperbole, Batman.



Not really. There is a lot of serious talk about the UK breaking up with N. Ireland and Scotland going a different way.


Even that is far from clear at this point. The first minister of Scotland was rebuffed and rather embarrassed by the President of the EU, and whether the Scots want to admit it or not they benefit much more from free trade with their southern neighbor than they do from free trade with the continent.
RE: RE: RE: Or what remains of it?  
Deej : 6/30/2016 10:11 am : link
In comment 13015247 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 13015234 Deej said:


Quote:


In comment 13015210 njm said:


Quote:


Holy hyperbole, Batman.



Not really. There is a lot of serious talk about the UK breaking up with N. Ireland and Scotland going a different way.



Even that is far from clear at this point. The first minister of Scotland was rebuffed and rather embarrassed by the President of the EU, and whether the Scots want to admit it or not they benefit much more from free trade with their southern neighbor than they do from free trade with the continent.


Who said it was clear? My point was just that mention "what is left" of Britain isnt some crazy hyperbole. It's at least in play that some constituent territories could bolt.
but the overwhelming disparity  
ColHowPepper : 6/30/2016 10:14 am : link
between Scotland's vote vs English vote on EU leave seems to increase the chance of another referendum on Scotland's membership in UK--trade with both is certainly a key, and the views on trade and membership (both EU and UK) highlight a difference.

Scotland is now, perhaps, in a better position to (re-)negotiate its terms? It remains the only source of oil production in the UK, and with uncertainty over England's economy in light of Brexit rising, do the ties that bind evolve a bit?
Certainly...  
Dunedin81 : 6/30/2016 10:16 am : link
Northern Ireland's vote was closer but if they close the physical border with Ireland they lose a lot. In Scotland's case there is push for a 2nd Independence Referendum, but as I said the outcomes both of the push and of the Referendum itself are far from clear at this point. It could happen, but the EU could also be arrogant enough in the parting to piss the Scots off too.
RE: but the overwhelming disparity  
PatersonPlank : 6/30/2016 10:16 am : link
In comment 13015269 ColHowPepper said:
Quote:
between Scotland's vote vs English vote on EU leave seems to increase the chance of another referendum on Scotland's membership in UK--trade with both is certainly a key, and the views on trade and membership (both EU and UK) highlight a difference.

Scotland is now, perhaps, in a better position to (re-)negotiate its terms? It remains the only source of oil production in the UK, and with uncertainty over England's economy in light of Brexit rising, do the ties that bind evolve a bit?


What this will do is give more fuel to the fire of those who voted for Scotland to leave the UK. I'm sure they will try again now. There is no right or wrong answer, its nothing more than power and politics. I do think that leaving the UK will hurt Scotland more than help them, but the "thinking" would be similar to the UK leaving the EU.
RE: Eric, njm  
njm : 6/30/2016 10:16 am : link
In comment 13015226 ColHowPepper said:
Quote:
Eric, good stuff, thanks

njm, yes, hyperbolic currently, but almost certainly Sturgeon will press for another referendum on Scotland's continuing membership in the Kingdom, or at a minimum, press for reform on the conditions of membership--do you believe that is hyperbole? I listened to an interview she gave yesterday, and one or both seem firmly in play.

I was impressed by her handling of the defeat, was it 2015? I think she is held in the highest of regard by Scottish electorate.


I was talking about the here and now. That can't be ruled out, but I'd guess not before 2018-2020.
pp  
ColHowPepper : 6/30/2016 10:23 am : link
that may well be.

Animal spirits seem to be in the ascendancy all over--and the popular notion is that nation holds out more promise than (multi-state) union and trade pacts. It seems we're on the cusp of a dangerous period, and there are many irresponsible voices over the land.

This would seem to impact Eric's area of expertise in particular.
..  
Named Later : 6/30/2016 12:11 pm : link
The Leaders of the "Leave" contingent promoted their cause by saying there would be minimal economic impact. That turned out to be a bunch of baloney.

Alert the Media -- There's Bullshit in Politics !!!

The only ray of enlightenment to come out of the whole thing is the UK Primary Cycle, which takes 24 hours to choose a candidate.

^  
ColHowPepper : 6/30/2016 12:15 pm : link
Amen. lol Can we emulate our former rulers' vision?
RE: ..  
njm : 6/30/2016 12:26 pm : link
In comment 13015548 Named Later said:
Quote:
The Leaders of the "Leave" contingent promoted their cause by saying there would be minimal economic impact. That turned out to be a bunch of baloney.



I don't think that can be determined at this point. I realize the markets are by no means the only determinant, but after wild swings in both directions there are pretty much right where they were before the vote.

Reaching a conclusion at this point is way premature.
Not Remorse  
Samiam : 6/30/2016 1:08 pm : link
I think he dropped out for the same reason that Cameron will be resigning early. I think they both think that this will be a clusterfuck and both want nothing to do with fixing it now since they have long term ambitions. When it hits the fan, they may come into the rescue but why be associated with the decline
RE: Not Remorse  
njm : 6/30/2016 1:18 pm : link
In comment 13015681 Samiam said:
Quote:
I think he dropped out for the same reason that Cameron will be resigning early. I think they both think that this will be a clusterfuck and both want nothing to do with fixing it now since they have long term ambitions. When it hits the fan, they may come into the rescue but why be associated with the decline


You really think the British public, and particularly the press, will forget that Johnson was one of the top voices of the "Leave" movement? If the shit DOES hit the fan, by no means a certainty, Johnson will play no part in a rescue.
RE: RE: ..  
Deej : 6/30/2016 1:31 pm : link
In comment 13015594 njm said:
Quote:
In comment 13015548 Named Later said:


Quote:


The Leaders of the "Leave" contingent promoted their cause by saying there would be minimal economic impact. That turned out to be a bunch of baloney.





I don't think that can be determined at this point. I realize the markets are by no means the only determinant, but after wild swings in both directions there are pretty much right where they were before the vote.

Reaching a conclusion at this point is way premature.


Agree with your broader point, but the idea that the British markets are where they started looks only at the FTSE 100. That is concentrated with some international businesses that were always going to be sheltered from the storm. FTSE 250 is broader based and is still down 6+%
from ZeroHedge  
ColHowPepper : 6/30/2016 2:27 pm : link
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-30/explaining-latest-chaos-uk-politics

Quote:
For those who are confused by the ongoing chaos in UK politics, the following primer should help explain everything.

So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.

Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.

Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful.

Clear?
I think this is all leading  
Deej : 6/30/2016 2:38 pm : link
to the monarchy reasserting itself. Fuck these democrats. John fucked the whole thing up. Time to fix an 800 year old mistake.
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