It's been well-documented that for the past 20+ years the Giants have been burned, badly, in the 3rd Round of the draft. Underachievers, out-and-out busts, career-ending injuries, it's absolutely ridiculous just how little success they've had with their 3rd Round picks (with Justin Tuck being one notable exception), so much so that not too long ago I half-seriously suggested that should trade their 3rd Round pick every year, for whatever they could get for it.
Heading into the 2016 season, the Giants have a lot riding on their three most recent 3rd Round picks - FS Darian Thompson, DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa, and DT Jay Bromley. Thompson is the presumptive starter at FS, and Odighizuwa and Bromley are expected to be the first guys off the bench at their respective positions in the D-Line rotation. Injuries (God forbid, knock on wood) could press either one (or both) into a starting role.
For a defense looking to rebound from a historically bad year, and irrespective of the team's free agent acquisitions, the Giants need these three players to provide a decent return on their 3rd Round investments. Thompson must show the leadership, intelligence, and production that the Giants are counting on. Odighizuwa must stay healthy and prove himself to be a force off the edge or up the middle. Bromley must show that he's the penetrating 3-tech the Giants have needed for years.
It's imperative that they justify the Giants' faith in them. It's imperative that they do not allow history to repeat itself. It's imperative that they break the dreaded Curse of the 3rd Round.
One is the MLB spot. He is the QB of your defense. In essence he should know the defense inside and out. He needs to relay the call to the entire team and make sure that his front seven is properly aligned. He needs to make any checks at the line and put us in the best position to succeed. This is all pre-snap responsibilities. It really concerns me that we are going to be possibly taking our QB off the field. How well do 2 QB offenses work? Not well. Why would it be any different for a defense? We really need a guy at MLB to stay on the field all 3 downs.
Two, does the back seven not only get the correct call but are they able to make quick decisive adjustments? This responsibility almost always relies on the FS. He is in the best position to see the whole offense, where they are lined up, what shifts/motions are occurring, where our players are lined up, what matchups he see, etc. Thompson, imo, is going to have to be that QB of the whole defense, not just the back seven if we do not have a consistent MLB. He is going to have to communicate with both MLBs so they are on his page to keeo the consistency among the rest of the defenders. It is quite the responsibility but it is one that I believe he relishes. He will be taking in the mentality of Spags and the other MLB and he is the one that has to process all of that on the field. He is going to be very valuable to both MLBs during film study.
So, when I started out saying he may be our MVP of the defense or at least one of them I am sure some rolled their eyes. However, the games can never be one if you aren't in the best position to succeed before the ball is snapped. This goes for alignments, responsibilities, checks, matchups, formations, personnel, tendencies, down amd distances, score of the game, time left in the game, etc. All of this needs to be well thought out in advance and, imo, Thompson is the one guy that can bring this all together.
Me too.
- Greg from LI
And I agree with you, I don't know why we don't trade up to get someone we really want, and throw in a later round pick, more often.....they just have not produced, especially the last 8 seasons.....
If he is the first man off the bench for the D-Line, I hope its not until like November...
just saying -- 20 years is a long time -- maybe it's less than that
And yes, a third round pick would be considered premium, if the pick is early in the round rather than later.....
In general, you're correct. That Jernigan pick, ouch...
sorry -- that's what I get for reading the first sentence and having a reaction : )
Also it would be great if both Bromley and Odi show up too. But if our other FA aquisitions on the DL: Snacks,Vernon and JPP are great , we would still be formidible if only one of ODI or Bromley turn out good (preferably Odi as I see more pass rush impact from him than Bromley).
I think you are on safer ground saying the last 10 years : )
Jay Alford was injured - but had impact in the Superbowl
so did Manningham, Brian Kehl has come on this site to argue that his issues were not performance based but more that he was out of favor with the coaching staff
there is no doubt that the stretch 2011-2013 were a bad stretch of third rounders - and every round after that too
I think you are on safer ground saying the last 10 years : )
From 1990 on:
Greg Mark, Ed McCaffrey, Aaron Pierce, Marcus Buckley, Gary Downs, Rodney Young, Roman Oben, Ryan Phillips, Brad Maynard, Bryan Alford, Dan Campbell, Ron Dixon, William Janes, Jeff Hatch, Visanthe Shiancoe, Justin Tuck, Gerris Wilkinson, Jay Alford, Mario Manningham, Ramses Barden, Travis Beckhum, Chad Jones, Jerrel Jernigan, Jayron Hosley, Damontre Moore.
I see a couple of hits, but a lot more misses. And what did Visanthe Shiancoe do for us, anyway?
Shiancoe was a fair player for his first three years and then became a very good player with Minnesota
I still think the core of your "curse" stems from the three years 2011-13 -- and that there is no overall third round curse
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Shiancoe, Will Peterson, Ron Dixon, Dan Campbell -- were all third rounders inside the last 20 years
I think you are on safer ground saying the last 10 years : )
From 1990 on:
Greg Mark, Ed McCaffrey, Aaron Pierce, Marcus Buckley, Gary Downs, Rodney Young, Roman Oben, Ryan Phillips, Brad Maynard, Bryan Alford, Dan Campbell, Ron Dixon, William Janes, Jeff Hatch, Visanthe Shiancoe, Justin Tuck, Gerris Wilkinson, Jay Alford, Mario Manningham, Ramses Barden, Travis Beckhum, Chad Jones, Jerrel Jernigan, Jayron Hosley, Damontre Moore.
I see a couple of hits, but a lot more misses. And what did Visanthe Shiancoe do for us, anyway?
William Janes sucked so bad I dont even remember him Will Peterson OTOH was actually a really good player until the injury bug got him.
Yeah it is a premium pick and it would be awesome if all 3 pan out. Especially Thompson since the alternatives are sketchy at best. However if just one of Brom or Odi really break out the DL should be in really good shape regardless.
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Regardless, I'm just hoping it changes this year. A 3rd Round pick is a major investment, and the Giants need for their last three to start paying dividends.
Yeah it is a premium pick and it would be awesome if all 3 pan out. Especially Thompson since the alternatives are sketchy at best. However if just one of Brom or Odi really break out the DL should be in really good shape regardless.
I don't know about that. We need both and, honestly, more than both. You need a rotation along the DL. Look no further than that SF fiasco under Fassel. Our DL was so worn down and we had nobody to fill in. Our starters look fantastic on paper but we are really counting on Bromley and Odi to play significant roles.
that said, i think DT is a stud. i agree with robbie that our lack of MLB hurts our ceiling
And as Chris Pflum at SB*Nation noted after the 49ers game:
Of course, i wouldn't take the risk every year b/c then the roster depth become the Redskins pre-the last two years.
From the 2 championship runs obviously there were enormous contributions from Eli, Plax, Nicks, Strahan, Osi, JPP, but as much as those guys contributed we had plenty of years where they each had good seasons and the team went nowhere. The differences in 07 and 11 was production from unexpected guys. Webster went from benched bust to best CB we've had in a decade, Tuck finally stayed healthy, Boss, Bradshaw, Steve Smith, Kawika, and others made big plays. In 2011 Cruz obviously emerged, but Deon Grant, Blackburn, Ballard & Boothe also stepped up and played tons of meaningful snaps.
How far this year's team goes will very much be decided by the guys behind the starting 22 on the depth chart. The 3 guys you mentioned are among the most promising in that respect, but equally important are the veterans like Keenan Robinson, JT Thomas, John Jerry, etc.
As to breaking that string, I'm still very much in show me mode w/r/t Bromley: in a historically bad defense (and the 49ers were a very bad team last year), PFF saying Bromley in effect stood out is not saying much. I think odds may be that by mid-season one of the FA signees this year or last may vault over JB as first DT off the bench.
I get the OO pick when it was made, liked it (as vs the Bromley pick, which I hated), but I have very low expectations: I want him to do very well, but he seems to be a magnet for somewhat serious injury/conditions that impair performance.
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DT Jay Bromley (+1.9) was also productive off the bench, finishing with two run stops and two QB hits in his 31 snaps.
And as Chris Pflum at SB*Nation noted after the 49ers game:
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Bromley's snap count has steadily risen throughout the season. He hit his season-high against San Francisco with 34 snaps, or 50 percent of the defensive snaps. Steve Spagnuolo had mentioned before the game that Bromley had been working extremely hard all offseason, and his has showed. When he has been on the field he has consistently been stout at the point of attack and frequently disruptive behind the line of scrimmage. In his first start, Bromley's +3.1 made him the highest-rated Giant on Sunday night.
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In comment 13027475 Klaatu said:
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Regardless, I'm just hoping it changes this year. A 3rd Round pick is a major investment, and the Giants need for their last three to start paying dividends.
Yeah it is a premium pick and it would be awesome if all 3 pan out. Especially Thompson since the alternatives are sketchy at best. However if just one of Brom or Odi really break out the DL should be in really good shape regardless.
I don't know about that. We need both and, honestly, more than both. You need a rotation along the DL. Look no further than that SF fiasco under Fassel. Our DL was so worn down and we had nobody to fill in. Our starters look fantastic on paper but we are really counting on Bromley and Odi to play significant roles.
If Snacks,Hank,JPP,Vernon,Odi and one of the other DTs on the roster play well that will be a pretty strong rotation. Of course Brom playing well too can only help.
If the rotation would help on third down, we could get off the field...
Brad Maynard was a good punter. Roman Oben had a couple of good years at LT. You've already mentioned Justin Tuck.
But still, I agree with the general premise of the thread. The 3rd round hasn't been nearly as good to us as the 2nd or the 4th.
It's not a bad strategy if you've got a fairly strong roster going into the draft: take a flyer on a guy in the middle rounds and see if he turns out to be the star that some thought he'd become.
But it's a really good way to create holes in said roster if he doesn't pan out, and if failures outnumber successes.
That's been the case the last 15 years: some have succeeded, but most haven't; and there you have one of the reasons why our current roster is so sketchy depth wise (and why we've had to rely on free agency so heavily this year).
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
Now, for the Giants drafting org, I view this as a challenge to beat these percentages. Unfortunately in round 3 they haven’t done a good job. To their credit, they have been good at round 1 picks, at least in recent drafts. I haven’t run round 1 numbers but I’d like to see their success rate compared to league average.
Full explanation and stats by round here:
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round
Success for a NY Giant 3rd rounder in the past decade is defined as they actually started an NFL game...
If he is the first man off the bench for the D-Line, I hope its not until like November...
+1. He's never ever flashed to me. Even shitty or Hal ass picks like Barden Travis Beckham had a game or two or even a play that flashed at some point. Bromley by all accounts isn't a slack ass like Marvin Austin but I expect him to be another guy who never gets to a second contract here. Old saw for me but never ever should have let Joseph walk for a much lesser contract than they Harrison.
I have faith though. So it takes Reese 10 years to learn how to draft. Things look rosy from here on out.
You can complain about an offensive line that aged and disintegrated under Reese's watch, but he's drafted in the top two rounds 3 times in the past four years, all of those picks are considered by the coaches and people around the team as the core and best players in that position group. We've drafted a top 3 WR. We drafted our best LB. And if Moore wasn't a total retard headcase, he could have been a huge pickup for the defense from that third round spot. He has/d the talent.
Our drafts are far from weak. Even this year with all the big signings and seemingly great picks, our biggest hole is a lack of signing of a FA RT. I think these types of threads do a disservice to our FO and also ignore the more important aspect of their faults: missing the boat in some of the FA market. Hopefully, we can pick up someone else's scraps in July/August. Either way, I'm hoping we can secure that RT in the draft next year. That seems to be our most effective way of acquiring talent that produces and stays on the field (unlike Schwartz).
But it does provide interesting data:
67% of 1st round picks succeed.
40% of 2nd round
27% of 3rd round.
17% of 4th round and less than 10% each round thereafter.
This over a recent 10 year period and success defined as starting half the games one has been available for - a pretty low bar for success.
Nitwits blasting Reese could have a look at those numbers and rethink their opinions.
Those with half a brain here are truly exhausted at pointing out that injuries to the Giants'premium picks are far more the cause of the club's lack of talent than poor drafting is, relative to league norms.
Do un-drafted free agents make up that many starts in the NFL?
And how many undrafted kickers, punters, and long snappers are "starters" for STs?
Obviously few of these guys were + starters, but they did start games
- Cruz
- our Tight End
- Jennings
- Harrison
- 1-2 of our LBs
Not counting Specials, I count 5-6 guys that will likely start for the Giants that were undrafted. That is much lower than the result portrayed by that article.
Now I know injuries will force reserves to come in and get starts but that doesn't equal the definition they provided as lasting half their career.
What am i missing?
Are the Giants a bad example, meaning most teams have many more undrafted free agents playing?
I don't think you can ignore the PK and punter positions, they were in the data cited.
Go through the math more carefully and double check if I copied it accurately.
It is just a fairly surprising how many undrafted guys make such an impact in terms of starts.
I know many here on BBI often give props to GMs when they find valuable undrafted free agents, but it is also a two-edged sword since you could say they a) should have drafted them outright and/or b) the guy they drafted got beat by the UDFA.
Do un-drafted free agents make up that many starts in the NFL?
Jimmy,
the article describes it as half the career, not only the team that drafted them.
Greg
The article so far as I am willing to look at it further DOES NOT give % of players that suceed from each round overall but only position by position, so far as I see now on 2nd quick read through.
It gives success rates by rounds only position by position, which frankly is by and large a moronic analysis.
Pardon I apparently misquoted it.
what leads you to write 'with literally zero basis to the conclusions statistically.'? The source data for the conclusions in the report come from Pro-Football-Reference.com. Do you find those numbers to be inaccurate or wrong? If so, please explain.
In comment 13028017 BlueLou said:
But it does provide interesting data:
67% of 1st round picks succeed.
40% of 2nd round
27% of 3rd round.
17% of 4th round and less than 10% each round thereafter.
This over a recent 10 year period and success defined as starting half the games one has been available for - a pretty low bar for success.
Nitwits blasting Reese could have a look at those numbers and rethink their opinions.
Those with half a brain here are truly exhausted at pointing out that injuries to the Giants'premium picks are far more the cause of the club's lack of talent than poor drafting is, relative to league norms.
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in a career or just with the first team that drafted them?
Do un-drafted free agents make up that many starts in the NFL?
Jimmy,
the article describes it as half the career, not only the team that drafted them.
Greg
Thanks Greg. That's why my point is those % starts by draftees seems really low because someone's actually got to be starting these games and it only leaves UDFAs to do so.
Difficult to translate the %s to a weighted-average across 24 starters but nevertheless...
what leads you to write 'with literally zero basis to the conclusions statistically.'? The source data for the conclusions in the report come from Pro-Football-Reference.com. Do you find those numbers to be inaccurate or wrong? If so, please explain.
The data would be MUCH BETTER presented if it included the overall success rate of all position players round by round.
I thought I saw that in the link but on 2nd view didn't see that information at all.
By breaking it up into position groups without having the baseline % of players who succeeded in each round it's ridiculous to suggest a team should draft this or that position in this or that round as the author of the link suggests.
And the link doesn't offer another link to examine the original source material, which is a shame...
I found it interesting to read nonetheless and thank you for linking it.
Breaking success rates down by position though, doesn’t mean there is zero basis for them statistically. You can get to the website of the source data here.
pro-football-reference.com
Greg
Greg