Breaking the Dreaded Curse of the 3rd Round.

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But one could argue that he could be one of our defensive MVPs. There are 2 concerns with this defense.

One is the MLB spot. He is the QB of your defense. In essence he should know the defense inside and out. He needs to relay the call to the entire team and make sure that his front seven is properly aligned. He needs to make any checks at the line and put us in the best position to succeed. This is all pre-snap responsibilities. It really concerns me that we are going to be possibly taking our QB off the field. How well do 2 QB offenses work? Not well. Why would it be any different for a defense? We really need a guy at MLB to stay on the field all 3 downs.

Two, does the back seven not only get the correct call but are they able to make quick decisive adjustments? This responsibility almost always relies on the FS. He is in the best position to see the whole offense, where they are lined up, what shifts/motions are occurring, where our players are lined up, what matchups he see, etc. Thompson, imo, is going to have to be that QB of the whole defense, not just the back seven if we do not have a consistent MLB. He is going to have to communicate with both MLBs so they are on his page to keeo the consistency among the rest of the defenders. It is quite the responsibility but it is one that I believe he relishes. He will be taking in the mentality of Spags and the other MLB and he is the one that has to process all of that on the field. He is going to be very valuable to both MLBs during film study.

So, when I started out saying he may be our MVP of the defense or at least one of them I am sure some rolled their eyes. However, the games can never be one if you aren't in the best position to succeed before the ball is snapped. This goes for alignments, responsibilities, checks, matchups, formations, personnel, tendencies, down amd distances, score of the game, time left in the game, etc. All of this needs to be well thought out in advance and, imo, Thompson is the one guy that can bring this all together.

The games can never be WON.

In comment 13027419 Jimmy Googs said:

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Me too.
- Greg from LI

First, the three you mentioned, have done nothing yet....and what about rounds 4-7? The only guys that made real contributions, were Manningham and Andre Brown....

And I agree with you, I don't know why we don't trade up to get someone we really want, and throw in a later round pick, more often.....they just have not produced, especially the last 8 seasons.....

the curse is part of the Deal for those last two SB's, made by Reese with You-Know-Who......I don't have all the particulars on the contract(like you will miss the playoffs 6 out of 7 years, there will be injuries, your drafts will continue to suck after the second round, etc.), or the length of it.....hopefully, it ended last season....

Jay Bromley doesn't give me any warm n' fuzzies.

If he is the first man off the bench for the D-Line, I hope its not until like November...

A 3rd Round pick is still considered a premium pick. Not the case in Rounds 4-7, where the odds of making an impact are a bit longer. Still, without researching the history, my guess is that the Giants have had better luck over the years with their 4th-7th Rounders than they've had with their 3rd Rounders.

and Brandon Jacobs and Barry Coffield 4th rounders?

just saying -- 20 years is a long time -- maybe it's less than that

to the 2007 season, when the "curse", started.....

And yes, a third round pick would be considered premium, if the pick is early in the round rather than later.....

very solid player who made HUGE plays in crunch time (SF Touchdown, sideline catch most notably). While a very incomplete player who made mistakes, he was insanely quick and a nice complement to a complete player like Nicks. Alas...injuries, like with so many others.

In general, you're correct. That Jernigan pick, ouch...

I mentioned Tuck as an exception. I should've mentioned Manningham. Other than those two, just go back and look at who the Giants' 3rd Round picks have been. It's a sorry list.

In comment 13027441 Klaatu said:

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I mentioned Tuck as an exception. I should've mentioned Manningham. Other than those two, just go back and look at who the Giants' 3rd Round picks have been. It's a sorry list.

sorry -- that's what I get for reading the first sentence and having a reaction : )

Unless we really luck out on Berhe or Jackson (but even Berhe doesnt seem like a great centerfield guy to complement Collins).

Also it would be great if both Bromley and Odi show up too. But if our other FA aquisitions on the DL: Snacks,Vernon and JPP are great , we would still be formidible if only one of ODI or Bromley turn out good (preferably Odi as I see more pass rush impact from him than Bromley).

Those guys will come through this year. History, as you point out, is against it.

Shiancoe, Will Peterson, Ron Dixon, Dan Campbell -- were all third rounders inside the last 20 years


I think you are on safer ground saying the last 10 years : )

out of the 3rd round and not just because of Darian Thompson. Odighizuwa is being counted on as the 3rd DE to fill a similar role to what Tuck provided in 2007. Odi has talent he just needs to stay healthy and if he does he could become a big part of this defense.

could change the history very quickly.

Chad Jones -- who knows what he might have been

Jay Alford was injured - but had impact in the Superbowl

so did Manningham, Brian Kehl has come on this site to argue that his issues were not performance based but more that he was out of favor with the coaching staff

there is no doubt that the stretch 2011-2013 were a bad stretch of third rounders - and every round after that too

In comment 13027453 gidiefor said:

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Shiancoe, Will Peterson, Ron Dixon, Dan Campbell -- were all third rounders inside the last 20 years I think you are on safer ground saying the last 10 years : )

From 1990 on:

Greg Mark, Ed McCaffrey, Aaron Pierce, Marcus Buckley, Gary Downs, Rodney Young, Roman Oben, Ryan Phillips, Brad Maynard, Bryan Alford, Dan Campbell, Ron Dixon, William Janes, Jeff Hatch, Visanthe Shiancoe, Justin Tuck, Gerris Wilkinson, Jay Alford, Mario Manningham, Ramses Barden, Travis Beckhum, Chad Jones, Jerrel Jernigan, Jayron Hosley, Damontre Moore.

I see a couple of hits, but a lot more misses. And what did Visanthe Shiancoe do for us, anyway?

the 20 year period you start with (and have now expanded to 26 years) to be relatively normal -- with 40% success being normal --

Shiancoe was a fair player for his first three years and then became a very good player with Minnesota

I still think the core of your "curse" stems from the three years 2011-13 -- and that there is no overall third round curse

After we have some pretty bad misses. You CAN fault for guys that had injury history that busted (like potentially Odi if he never makes it back) but not for freak accidents like Chad Jones (who really didnt have much of an injury history prior).

In comment 13027467 Klaatu said:

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In comment 13027453 gidiefor said: Quote: Shiancoe, Will Peterson, Ron Dixon, Dan Campbell -- were all third rounders inside the last 20 years I think you are on safer ground saying the last 10 years : ) From 1990 on: Greg Mark, Ed McCaffrey, Aaron Pierce, Marcus Buckley, Gary Downs, Rodney Young, Roman Oben, Ryan Phillips, Brad Maynard, Bryan Alford, Dan Campbell, Ron Dixon, William Janes, Jeff Hatch, Visanthe Shiancoe, Justin Tuck, Gerris Wilkinson, Jay Alford, Mario Manningham, Ramses Barden, Travis Beckhum, Chad Jones, Jerrel Jernigan, Jayron Hosley, Damontre Moore. I see a couple of hits, but a lot more misses. And what did Visanthe Shiancoe do for us, anyway?

William Janes sucked so bad I dont even remember him Will Peterson OTOH was actually a really good player until the injury bug got him.

Regardless, I'm just hoping it changes this year. A 3rd Round pick is a major investment, and the Giants need for their last three to start paying dividends.

In comment 13027475 Klaatu said:

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Regardless, I'm just hoping it changes this year. A 3rd Round pick is a major investment, and the Giants need for their last three to start paying dividends.

Yeah it is a premium pick and it would be awesome if all 3 pan out. Especially Thompson since the alternatives are sketchy at best. However if just one of Brom or Odi really break out the DL should be in really good shape regardless.

In comment 13027479 Coach Mason said:

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In comment 13027475 Klaatu said: Quote: Regardless, I'm just hoping it changes this year. A 3rd Round pick is a major investment, and the Giants need for their last three to start paying dividends. Yeah it is a premium pick and it would be awesome if all 3 pan out. Especially Thompson since the alternatives are sketchy at best. However if just one of Brom or Odi really break out the DL should be in really good shape regardless.

I don't know about that. We need both and, honestly, more than both. You need a rotation along the DL. Look no further than that SF fiasco under Fassel. Our DL was so worn down and we had nobody to fill in. Our starters look fantastic on paper but we are really counting on Bromley and Odi to play significant roles.

how could anyone short of a complete homer have warm & fuzzies about Bromley? the only notable things he did last year were getting a costly roughing the QB penalty and accused of rape. he's a nobody in the NFL until he does something on the field

a terrible football player who nobody signed as a UFA. currently a street free agent

that said, i think DT is a stud. i agree with robbie that our lack of MLB hurts our ceiling

For a reason. He stunk.

Such as their assessment of him after the Bucs game:

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DT Jay Bromley (+1.9) was also productive off the bench, finishing with two run stops and two QB hits in his 31 snaps.

And as Chris Pflum at SB*Nation noted after the 49ers game:

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Bromley's snap count has steadily risen throughout the season. He hit his season-high against San Francisco with 34 snaps, or 50 percent of the defensive snaps. Steve Spagnuolo had mentioned before the game that Bromley had been working extremely hard all offseason, and his has showed. When he has been on the field he has consistently been stout at the point of attack and frequently disruptive behind the line of scrimmage. In his first start, Bromley's +3.1 made him the highest-rated Giant on Sunday night.

often wondered why they don't try trading up in the 2nd Round over the years. Not that the picks haven't been high due to all the losing but jumping up 5-10 slots may have been more beneficial than the 2nd and 3rd rounders drafted. Especially with the OL IMO

Of course, i wouldn't take the risk every year b/c then the roster depth become the Redskins pre-the last two years.

Thompson is obviously a rookie but all sounds well with him. Good post because there's a ton of truth.

From the 2 championship runs obviously there were enormous contributions from Eli, Plax, Nicks, Strahan, Osi, JPP, but as much as those guys contributed we had plenty of years where they each had good seasons and the team went nowhere. The differences in 07 and 11 was production from unexpected guys. Webster went from benched bust to best CB we've had in a decade, Tuck finally stayed healthy, Boss, Bradshaw, Steve Smith, Kawika, and others made big plays. In 2011 Cruz obviously emerged, but Deon Grant, Blackburn, Ballard & Boothe also stepped up and played tons of meaningful snaps.

How far this year's team goes will very much be decided by the guys behind the starting 22 on the depth chart. The 3 guys you mentioned are among the most promising in that respect, but equally important are the veterans like Keenan Robinson, JT Thomas, John Jerry, etc.

I bet if avg out every team is close to or same in that aspect. Though it may appear there's a perceived "curse" maybe not so in overall picture js

Manningham was definitely a + player, but overall the history of 3rds is as you describe it in the OP.

As to breaking that string, I'm still very much in show me mode w/r/t Bromley: in a historically bad defense (and the 49ers were a very bad team last year), PFF saying Bromley in effect stood out is not saying much. I think odds may be that by mid-season one of the FA signees this year or last may vault over JB as first DT off the bench.

I get the OO pick when it was made, liked it (as vs the Bromley pick, which I hated), but I have very low expectations: I want him to do very well, but he seems to be a magnet for somewhat serious injury/conditions that impair performance.

In comment 13027494 Klaatu said:

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Such as their assessment of him after the Bucs game: Quote: DT Jay Bromley (+1.9) was also productive off the bench, finishing with two run stops and two QB hits in his 31 snaps. And as Chris Pflum at SB*Nation noted after the 49ers game: Quote: Bromley's snap count has steadily risen throughout the season. He hit his season-high against San Francisco with 34 snaps, or 50 percent of the defensive snaps. Steve Spagnuolo had mentioned before the game that Bromley had been working extremely hard all offseason, and his has showed. When he has been on the field he has consistently been stout at the point of attack and frequently disruptive behind the line of scrimmage. In his first start, Bromley's +3.1 made him the highest-rated Giant on Sunday night.

I'm not sure what they're watching but consistently stout at the point of attack? Frequently disruptive? They watched a different player than I did, Bromley has to either add weight and be an anchor or drop weight and be a real three, currently he is shit at both.

In comment 13027486 robbieballs2003 said:

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In comment 13027479 Coach Mason said: Quote: In comment 13027475 Klaatu said: Quote: Regardless, I'm just hoping it changes this year. A 3rd Round pick is a major investment, and the Giants need for their last three to start paying dividends. Yeah it is a premium pick and it would be awesome if all 3 pan out. Especially Thompson since the alternatives are sketchy at best. However if just one of Brom or Odi really break out the DL should be in really good shape regardless. I don't know about that. We need both and, honestly, more than both. You need a rotation along the DL. Look no further than that SF fiasco under Fassel. Our DL was so worn down and we had nobody to fill in. Our starters look fantastic on paper but we are really counting on Bromley and Odi to play significant roles.

If Snacks,Hank,JPP,Vernon,Odi and one of the other DTs on the roster play well that will be a pretty strong rotation. Of course Brom playing well too can only help.

on third downs, that will help the rotations....

In comment 13027555 Doomster said:

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on third downs, that will help the rotations....

If the rotation would help on third down, we could get off the field...

Holy cow. This organization has had a lot of issues with injuries throughout the years. Both on and off the field.

For a couple of years there he was the best guy in our secondary and consistently outplayed the guy the Giants drafted in the first round the year he came into the league - Will Allen.

Brad Maynard was a good punter. Roman Oben had a couple of good years at LT. You've already mentioned Justin Tuck.

But still, I agree with the general premise of the thread. The 3rd round hasn't been nearly as good to us as the 2nd or the 4th.

that, historically speaking, the Giants have often chosen to find bargains in the 3rd round by selecting people who have been thought to possess 1st round quality but, for one reason or another (usually injury, but sometimes character) have fallen.

It's not a bad strategy if you've got a fairly strong roster going into the draft: take a flyer on a guy in the middle rounds and see if he turns out to be the star that some thought he'd become.

But it's a really good way to create holes in said roster if he doesn't pan out, and if failures outnumber successes.

That's been the case the last 15 years: some have succeeded, but most haven't; and there you have one of the reasons why our current roster is so sketchy depth wise (and why we've had to rely on free agency so heavily this year).

On this subject, there is an article about the success rate by position of draft picks across the league. According the report, the success rate in the 3rd round is less than 50%. It defines success as a draft pick that became a starter for more than half of his NFL career. Here are the success percentages for each position in the third round:

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

Now, for the Giants drafting org, I view this as a challenge to beat these percentages. Unfortunately in round 3 they haven’t done a good job. To their credit, they have been good at round 1 picks, at least in recent drafts. I haven’t run round 1 numbers but I’d like to see their success rate compared to league average.

Full explanation and stats by round here:
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

In comment 13027615 Gregorio said:

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On this subject, there is an article about the success rate by position of draft picks across the league. According the report, the success rate in the 3rd round is less than 50%. It defines success as a draft pick that became a starter for more than half of his NFL career.

Success for a NY Giant 3rd rounder in the past decade is defined as they actually started an NFL game...

taken a consensus of the draft guides put them up on a board and thrown a dart. He couldnt have done worse.

In comment 13027434 Jimmy Googs said:

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Jay Bromley doesn't give me any warm n' fuzzies. If he is the first man off the bench for the D-Line, I hope its not until like November...

+1. He's never ever flashed to me. Even shitty or Hal ass picks like Barden Travis Beckham had a game or two or even a play that flashed at some point. Bromley by all accounts isn't a slack ass like Marvin Austin but I expect him to be another guy who never gets to a second contract here. Old saw for me but never ever should have let Joseph walk for a much lesser contract than they Harrison.

they dropped more int's than they caught....

Peterson/Allen....

looks to be the best of the lot. Odigazooie can't be counted on. Bromley can be counted on to be average or below average. At least Odiggie had upside with injury risk, Bromley was just a flat out reach. Horrible pick.
I have faith though. So it takes Reese 10 years to learn how to draft. Things look rosy from here on out.

Of "imperatives". Hope Spags is up to the task. He's got more talent on D than we've had in awhile, imo.

Thanks