NFT: Attempted coup in Turkey?

wiki for Fethullah G�len
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fethullah_G�len - ( New Window )

Turkey going into civil war would be a disaster that would make Syria look like childs play. And who knows what Putin will do. Start complaining that he's entitled to access to the sea and do something about it.

Derek Gatopoulos ✔ @dgatopoulos
Ankara Mayor urges residents to take to the streets

In comment 13034290 Greg from LI said:

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Trying to follow #Turkey on Twitter, and they keep posting dumbass pictures of Boris Johnson. Give it a fucking rest already.

Maybe there are just too many dumbass pictures of Boris Johnson. Whose fault is that?

Malek Blacktoviche @SyrianDeveloper
Heavy shooting by #Assad forces in #Aleppo they are celebrating for what's going on in #Turkey
5:22 PM - 15 Jul 2016

These coups happen from time to time in contemporary Turkish history.
coups - ( New Window )

Turkey ran TV spots promoting the business friendly environment, infrastructure, etc. What a disaster

Jenan Moussa ✔ @jenanmoussa
Unbelievable. No Erdogan on tv. The military overtook TRT station. Anchor says the secular system needs to be restored. #Turkey. @akhbar
5:20 PM - 15 Jul 2016

Ceylan Yeginsu ✔ @CeylanWrites
Presidential sources say that the President is in a secure location and will make a statement shortly.
5:23 PM - 15 Jul 2016

Ceylan Yeginsu ✔ @CeylanWrites
Erdogan making a statement on facetime right now.
5:28 PM - 15 Jul 2016

Sky News Newsdesk ✔ @SkyNewsBreak
Update - #Turkey's PM says security forces will "retaliate in kind" and "everything necessary will be done even if that means fatalities"

A Coup....modern world.

Ezgi Basaran @ezgibasaran
President Erdogan: "This coup is not in chain of command. I also heard that the Chief of Armed Forces to be taken hostage. Nothing clear"
5:31 PM - 15 Jul 2016

In comment 13034308 sphinx said:

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Ceylan Yeginsu ✔ @CeylanWrites Erdogan making a statement on facetime right now. 5:28 PM - 15 Jul 2016

This is Turkish TV

i dont disagree with many of the reasons to be concerned posted on the thread but honestly, just imho, this has a better than 50% chance of being good for the US, for NATO, for Israel.

Here who it is not good for:

ISIS
Syria
Russia
Iran

See any nation on that list that you like ?


Lastly, when I served ( actually also was a kid brat at Incirlik) and thereafter what I knew about it the Turkish military and the US Military had close and high regard fr each other. So many jointly went through War College ans the other ways we interact that for many years the military was far more effective with Turkey than the State Department. Now that was all pre Edrogan so who knows who these guys are? they could be pro muslim armed to the hilt military and bent on the Caliphate for all I know. But not much goes on in Turkey we dont know a lot about and no one with half a brain would proceed without knowing that no matter what we said externally....we were going to support the new crew. And there is a lot we can help them with.

the view always was that the Turkish Military were patriots and progressive given the alternatives and aimed to be members of Europe, the Attaturk tradition and the West not the ME


Kicker, imho, very true and very well articulated as usual. But, countries like this are knife edge stages of evolution two steps back and three steps forward. As long as the people are given stability I feel its at least humanitarian enough in Turkeys case. I remind us that Attaturkism lasted a very long time so its not like this is a banana republic. In sum, moderation even if not through democratically elected government is best we can do sometimes

Lets wait and see. There are lots of reasons to think it helps us a lot.

relevant. Facetime? He might as well be updating his myspace page.

If the guy can't land in his own country and can only call for violence through facetime to overthrow the military it's pretty clear who is actually in charge right now.

"In sum, moderation even if not through democratically elected government is best we can do sometimes."

Amen to that Bill

In comment 13034316 Bill2 said:

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i dont disagree with many of the reasons to be concerned posted on the thread but honestly, just imho, this has a better than 50% chance of being good for the US, for NATO, for Israel. Here who it is not good for: ISIS Syria Russia Iran See any nation on that list that you like ?

Not an expert on Turkey, but my guess is that the airport bombing was the last straw. Erdogan has essentially allowed a porous border in exchange for IS taking it easy on Turkey. With that implied deal violated, maybe the military want to try to re-establish the border.

I would have thought that Russia would be relatively pleased given the animosity between Put in and Erdogan.

for all I know the military under Erdogan was turned into IISS ( the Paki rotten to the core Interior Security Department)

In comment 13034317 Patrick77 said:

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relevant. Facetime? He might as well be updating his myspace page. If the guy can't land in his own country and can only call for violence through facetime to overthrow the military it's pretty clear who is actually in charge right now.

Also the part where he asked his people to take to the streets against a modern military. #Leadership

Isn't it just as likely that the military is dissatisfied with the level of response to KPP (Kurdish Workers Party). The centuries old enmity, the rise in esteem that Kurds have realized in NATO and the West generally for their successes on the battlefield against ISIS, and a diffuse Turkish response in Anatolia, Syria, and western Iraq: I'm thinking the trigger is shorter with respect to KPP.

Are they a modern force?

You would certainly know much better than I.

And you are very correct that internal deposal is much better than an internationally-imposed one.

I would have thought that the Turkish military, given their tradition and views, would have been better at blocking the intrigues and advances of someone like Erdogan (in response to them being IISS), which would change the calculus of my beliefs.

Deej...yep...us as well given how important the airspace is to us as well

Greg

Turkey can shut a lot of Russia down by blocking the Bosphorus. If armed by the US by certain weapons then within a week its a dagger pointed at Russia. Russia is always going to be suspicious of Turkey unless every last citizen was KGB.

They are so historically sensitive to Turkey and US weapons that hey risked WWIII with a weak hand to get our "defensive" weapons out of there. We call that the Cuban Missile Crisis.

In comment 13034331 Ten Ton Hammer said:

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Are they a modern force?

Very much so, professional and we'll regarded

Erdogan's "expression of regret" a couple of weeks ago seemed to have taken some of the tension arising from the downing of the Russian aircraft. That and his approach to re-open ties to Israel seemed to indicate Erdogan was reducing the number of "fronts" Turkey was facing, maybe too little too late.

the ascension of Erdogan and his colleagues was considered to be a real surprise and a loss by a weak looking elsewhere Bush Adminsitration. Both their military and ours and our State were blindsided and over confident in 2002-2003

In comment 13034328 Deej said:

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Also the part where he asked his people to take to the streets against a modern military. #Leadership

Yup. He doesn't give two shits about anyone but himself and his own power. A battle hardened, professional, military force vs civilians... No real leader would ever call for that. It would be a massacre.

In comment 13034322 Deej said:

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In comment 13034316 Bill2 said: Quote: i dont disagree with many of the reasons to be concerned posted on the thread but honestly, just imho, this has a better than 50% chance of being good for the US, for NATO, for Israel. Here who it is not good for: ISIS Syria Russia Iran See any nation on that list that you like ? Not an expert on Turkey, but my guess is that the airport bombing was the last straw. Erdogan has essentially allowed a porous border in exchange for IS taking it easy on Turkey. With that implied deal violated, maybe the military want to try to re-establish the border.

I won't rule that out, but the military iirc has been more secular than the direction Erdogan was taking the country, going all the way back to Ataturk.

Bill - Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't there less corruption with Ataturk than the Young Turks who preceded him?

but wasnt Erdogan's son buying up oil from ISIS?

the best military in the area

well trained mid ranks. proud traditions. a meritocracy. very little corruption.

if we took the gloves we put on when erdogan came on the scene and armed them as we had prior to 15 years ago...they are the best in the area by a wide margin

In comment 13034343 732NYG said:

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but wasnt Erdogan's son buying up oil from ISIS?

Rumor. I never saw much back up.

in Turkey. The article below explains who they are.
Link - ( New Window )

was as low corruption as that world ever sees.

thats one thing our military always said about theirs...tough, western, well educated, not corrupt and merit based

.

the major cities but that's a lot of americans out there.

In comment 13034277 Reb8thVA said:

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is laughing his ass off right now. One of his biggest detractors who insisted on regime change in Syria is now getting ready to file for unemployment

Agreed.

In comment 13034331 Ten Ton Hammer said:

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Are they a modern force?

Yes, one of the most modern in NATO from what I've heard. The military people on BBI know more but from what I've read Turkey has one of the five largest militaries in NATO

but you get the sense that if the military desires a secular state, this is the first of many of these scenes.

i rarely see things much differently than you do in this part of the world, but if successful and depending on who it is; i am not sure id be very happy if the military succeeds

who is very anti-Israel as well as trying to move Turkey toward being a more Muslim country, every intelligent person on earth knows both of those things mean he is vermin. Hopefully, non-religious military leaders can take over and restore Turkey to the way it was before Erdogan came in. That is, an ally to us and Israel.

If we have a significant pro-Erdogan faction fighting a significant anti-Erdogan fashion there will be rivers of blood on the streets of Istanbul and Ankara

A significant pro-Erdogan faction vs. anti-Erdogan faction would create complete chaos

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i dont disagree with many of the reasons to be concerned posted on the thread but honestly, just imho, this has a better than 50% chance of being good for the US, for NATO, for Israel.

Maybe short term but long term? A military coup doesn't reflect the will of the people and down the road there could be huge blow back especially if people get the idea that the US or Israel played a role in the coup (true or not doesn't matter).

Mo�z BHAR @moezbhar
#BREAKING: Video seems to show gunfire towards protesters in #Istanbul amid military coup

Cops and military fighting? Distinctly hear lots of gunfire

https://twitter.com/RobPulseNews/status/754081134321860608