Todays FF discussion

In comment 13040582 giants#1 said:

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In comment 13040474 arcarsenal said: Quote: No chance I am going QB early. Considering targeting Brady and then trying to piggyback him him with Bortles. Bortles really flew under the radar last year, he put up some numbers. It's not going to be as easy to wait on Eli this year, IMO.. a lot more people are going to be onto that and I think he's going to get taken a round or two sooner than usual. I think Bortles goes higher than Eli. People love upside and Bortles was already as good as Eli last season.

I'm targeting Carr in the 8th/9th. Eli was kept in my keeper league in the 8th.

I'm certainly not suggesting to draft a QB early. But like I said 8 - 12 you can get real value.

that would give me 4 RB's and 4 WR's or some combination there of 3 and 4 before taking any other position.

I reviewed our draft results last night - we had a prep meeting for my league and round 9 players were like Davante Parker, Markus Wheaton, Roddy White, Stevie Johnson, Julius Thomas - I guarantee a QB would provide more value there than practically anyone in that round. of the 12 team the best 9th round picks were: Michael Floyd and McFadden and a QB was still better IMO.

and fumbled 8 times last year. And he may lose some passing TD's to Ivory. Just some food for thought.

I think I read somewhere that JAX wants to run the ball a little more this year.. which may or may not wind up being the case but I think I'd still take Eli over Bortles at this point (being as unbiased as I can be) now that this is his 3rd year in Ben Mac's system and he's going to have more weapons.

easy.

he's a turnover machine, and can just as easily regress as he can improve. Not betting either way on that guy.

Eli is going to have some turnovers but he's got every opportunity to duplicate his TD's from last year with room to grow. I'd virtually lock him in to 30+ TD's outside of injury to him or Beckham.

Yeah, I mean I'd be really surprised if Bortles ADP jumped ahead of Eli's at any point in the next month.

I'd love to have Bortles as my QB2 and would even be okay with him as my QB1 (though I wouldn't feel that comfortable with it) but Eli is far, far safer IMO.

In comment 13040606 arcarsenal said:

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I think I read somewhere that JAX wants to run the ball a little more this year.. which may or may not wind up being the case but I think I'd still take Eli over Bortles at this point (being as unbiased as I can be) now that this is his 3rd year in Ben Mac's system and he's going to have more weapons.

And it's Bortles 3rd year in the NFL. And Allen Robinson's 3rd season as well. Plus the 2nd (first full) season of Bortles with Julius Thomas.

A competent running game (and D) could also keep pressure off Bortles to try and make plays and thus keep the TOs down.

In comment 13040615 arcarsenal said:

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Yeah, I mean I'd be really surprised if Bortles ADP jumped ahead of Eli's at any point in the next month. I'd love to have Bortles as my QB2 and would even be okay with him as my QB1 (though I wouldn't feel that comfortable with it) but Eli is far, far safer IMO.

in NFFC leagues, Bortles ADP is 72.9 and Eli is 89.1

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In comment 13040655 leatherneck570 said:

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don't forget that Bortles rushes quite a bit. He had 310 yards and 2 TDs on the ground last year.

Surprised about the ADP's re: Bortles/Eli.. I guess I was wrong.

I have 7th pick in my 12 team league. The guy with the 2nd pick really doesn't want it.. I'm tempted to try and swap with him and take Beckham. Being too much of a homer? I feel like I could get someone like Keenan Allen in rd 2 and then grab a RB with my 3rd pick.

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We would just swap draft slots. He'd pick 7th and I'd pick 2nd. He just doesn't want the 2nd pick, I guess he feels like he could draft a better team from another slot.

In comment 13041467 arcarsenal said:

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We would just swap draft slots. He'd pick 7th and I'd pick 2nd. He just doesn't want the 2nd pick, I guess he feels like he could draft a better team from another slot.

PPR?

In comment 13041478 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 13041467 arcarsenal said: Quote: We would just swap draft slots. He'd pick 7th and I'd pick 2nd. He just doesn't want the 2nd pick, I guess he feels like he could draft a better team from another slot. PPR?

Yup

basically what you're looking at with your first three picks is:

2nd pick (2, 23, 26)

2: Beckham (or Bell, Jones, Gurley, Elliott, AP)
23: Cooks (Marshall, Lacy, Ingram, Cooper)
26: Martin, Lacy, D. Thomas, Hilton

7th pick (7, 18, 31)

7: David Johnson (AJ Green, Gurley, AP)
18: Allen (Charles, Freeman, Jeffrey)
31: Edelman (Watkins, McCoy, Cobb, Landry)

I'd take 2, 23, 26 I think.

Yeah or I could even go WR/WR/WR and have an elite corps and then target RB/RB in 4 and 5... maybe Dion Lewis/Mathews.. or maybe Forte is there.

I feel like in PPR if you can just fill your RB spots with guys who will catch a few passes a game you're good. Even a guy like Woodhead you can start regularly.

In comment 13041534 arcarsenal said:

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Yeah or I could even go WR/WR/WR and have an elite corps and then target RB/RB in 4 and 5... maybe Dion Lewis/Mathews.. or maybe Forte is there. I feel like in PPR if you can just fill your RB spots with guys who will catch a few passes a game you're good. Even a guy like Woodhead you can start regularly.

Agree. If you get Beckham, Cooks and TY Hilton at 47 you can get a Latavius Murray, Demarco Murray, Danny Woodhead (sometimes underrated in PPR) or even reach for Duke Johnson or Jeremy Langford who have upside. Even Matt Jones. Your RB1 would be weak, but you'd be stacked at WR. You could probably even get two of those backs I named so your RB1 and 2 could be Latavius Murray and Danny Woodhead. With Beckham, Cooks and Hilton, that's a solid core.

arcarsenal said:

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Yeah or I could even go WR/WR/WR and have an elite corps and then target RB/RB in 4 and 5... maybe Dion Lewis/Mathews.. or maybe Forte is there. I feel like in PPR if you can just fill your RB spots with guys who will catch a few passes a game you're good. Even a guy like Woodhead you can start regularly.

Arc, I did that last year where I took Odell at #10 and wanted CJ Anderson with my 2nd round pick at #15 but when Julio Jones dropped, I couldn't pass him up. Then in the 3rd round I was waiting on Carlos Hyde or Latavius Murray with my pick but both got selected right before my selection. So instead of forcing a RB pick, I just took Brandin Cooks in the 3rd round.

I had to juggle RBs throughout the season and got lucky with DeAngelo Williams and Darren McFadden. Although that elite 3 WR combo of Beckham\Jones\Cooks carried my roster.

Yeah, I mean I definitely think you can make it work. I always just let the drafts come to me for the most part. I know people like to try and script their first 3-4 picks position wise and go from there but value is always king for me.

Thing is, if I don't get him to swap with me and I stay @ 7 I think I'm almost going to have to go RB in rd 1 because otherwise I'm not maxing out my value. One of Gurley/DJ/AP will definitely be there if not 2 of them and it'd be hard to pass on them for someone like AJ or Jordy. I feel like I'd be reaching a little.

I kind of hope Hopkins just falls into my lap there and then maybe Miller or Charles drop to my next pick. Could probably get Watkins/Cobb/Landry in the 3rd as a WR2.. I think I'd be pretty happy with a core like that.

Didn't he get a 4 game suspension that was reduced to only 2 games last year?

If he did in fact skip his drug testing (which the NFL considers a positive result), highly doubt he gets the same 4 games suspension he got last year. Should be closer to a 10 game suspension or even a full 16 games.

Either way, I'm not touching him.

now?

In comment 13041655 leatherneck570 said:

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now?

Bell is a keeper in my league, I wonder if they remove the keeper designation.

our keepers aren't official until 8/1, but assuming it was 8/1 our two outs are suspension or out for the season injury.

I think DW is now a 4th/5th assuming Bell suspension is made official. To me though this moves Roethlisberger up a round. I'd love to get him.

My team so far is Beckham, Cooper and Gurley. I have a 2nd and 3rd round pick, then don't pick again until round 7.

So if I can get a guy like Lamar Miller, Cooks, someone like that in the 2nd (it's a keeper league so not sure how many 1st and 2nd round picks there will be) and then I'd consider Big Ben in the 3rd unless there is a compelling player available. which I doubt.

leatherneck570 said:

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now?

I think that all depends on the length of the suspension. If it's in the 2-4 game range last year, I think Williams will go near rounds 7-9.

If it's 8-10 games, Williams should go rounds 4-5. If Bell is done for a full season, Williams become a Top 5-7 pick overall.

Per Rotoworld.....

In the nine games he played start to finish last season, Williams led all NFL running backs in touches per game (22.9), touchdowns (11), and snaps played.

if Bell misses half the season. He still has value upon Bell's return, especially after a major knee injury.

If Bell misses 8 games, definitively before people have their drafts, he's going to go in the 2nd round in many leagues.

like 2nd and 3rd round selections on a guy whose only going to play half the season for you. I wouldn't mind the risk as much, if it was the the 4th or 5th rounds since you would already have a solid core of players from the first 3 rounds.

If Bell is suspended for a full season, all bets are off and he'll be a Top 5-7 pick overall.

In comment 13041666 UConn4523 said:

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if Bell misses half the season. He still has value upon Bell's return, especially after a major knee injury. If Bell misses 8 games, definitively before people have their drafts, he's going to go in the 2nd round in many leagues.

the rumor is 4 games (which I doubt to be true, but for now I assume it is). If it's 4 games, I don't see anyone taking Williams before the 4th/5th round.

I think we need the suspension confirmed first.

Knowing that you don't have Bell for a minimum of 4+ games this year, possibility of another violation ends his season. Plus we're not even factoring in the recovery from two torn knee ligaments and how that will effect him being inactive for over a month of the season.

Would you still select Bell with a 1st or 2nd round pick?

I would have taken Bell mid-1st rd if there was no suspension and he was on track to be a full go Week 1.. with a suspension of any sort, though.. I am probably going to just pass altogether unless he really drops and falls into my lap in a spot where I have to take him.

The last thing I want to do is spend a 1st-4th rd pick on a guy who a) is already suspended a few games off the bat and b) coming off an injury

I need to get players that I view as "sure things" barring new injuries with those picks.

In comment 13041672 NYG27 said:

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like 2nd and 3rd round selections on a guy whose only going to play half the season for you. I wouldn't mind the risk as much, if it was the the 4th or 5th rounds since you would already have a solid core of players from the first 3 rounds. If Bell is suspended for a full season, all bets are off and he'll be a Top 5-7 pick overall.

I disagree. Bell was suspended last year, not hurt, to start the season. Now he's coming back from an injury, no guarantee Pitt goes full force with him when he's eligible. This could be a split backfield, even 70/30 gives Williams a ton of value.

Add in that RB's just get injured and you start adding guys waiting in the wings all year, getting 8 awesome games from Williams can help you make the playoffs. I see a high round pick for him if it is in fact 8 games.

If its 4 games, he's still worth a 4th rounder. Too much potential.

In comment 13040454 NYG27 said:

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While it might be great to land Cam, Rodgers or Luck but why not wait till rounds 6 to 9 and pick up a guy like Eli, Cousins or Dalton on the cheap. Even a guy like Tom Brady who has a 4 game suspension might drop to the 6th or 7th rounds.

I've waited on QBs in probably all but one of the drafts I have done over the last 100 years or so. One year I took Peyton high.

Most strategies are sound unless you draft like shit and/or get socked with injuries. If you take the QB in round 1 you better get the best QB and when you draft RBs and WRs later on you better get good ones. Works the same way if you reverse the strategy. But I do like mine better --the science backs me up!

is a blessing for me. I have the 3rd pick and I think it was safe to assume that the 3 WRs and Bell were the top 4 picks. Now with Bell out of the mix, I take who is left over and not think twice.

The only curve ball is if the 2nd guy who is picking takes Gurley. Then I will have to choose between Beckham and Jones.

Are the Seahawks just being cautious with him or was there a reason why they drafted 3 RBs in the draft.

Since Christine Michael sucks, looking forward to seeing what both rookies CJ Prosise and Alex Collins can do in these preseason games.

In comment 13041761 dep026 said:

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is a blessing for me. I have the 3rd pick and I think it was safe to assume that the 3 WRs and Bell were the top 4 picks. Now with Bell out of the mix, I take who is left over and not think twice. The only curve ball is if the 2nd guy who is picking takes Gurley. Then I will have to choose between Beckham and Jones.

I go Beckham. Brown I think is my clear cut #1 WR but Beckham and Jones are 2a/b. I just can't get over how few TD's Jones has for his size. It doesn't make sense to me.

In his first three year, Jones had 174 receptions and scored 20 TDs. Which is a solid 1 TD for every 8.7 receptions. Plus factor in Tony Gonzalez played with Jones in those first 3 years and he was more so used as the Red Zone target in that offense.

Last two years, without Gonzo there, most people expected a jump on the TD rate. Jones saw a huge spike in production with 240 receptions but had just 14 TDs. Which is a very low 1 TD for every 17 receptions.

In a PPR, I think I'd take Jones over Beckham but in a standard league, I'd go with Odell.

Brotles outscored Eli in my league last year by 19 pts. Typical scoring.

The Jags were in a ton of blow outs last year and were consistently in catch-up mode and threw the ball a lot playing catch up.

This year the Jags have improved their overall defense and Chris Ivory gives them another back to team with Yates to run more ball controlled offense if they have a lead.

How will that better defense and running game effect Bortles TD passes?

is we have no idea how good he is and that means something to me. His rushing stats keep him in the convo, but I don't think anyone can confidently peg him for 35 passing TD's again. It can just as easily be 25.

Eli is a lock for 30+ TD's (outside of injury to him or Beckham). But again, the rushing stats make it closer than it should be.

In comment 13041845 NYG27 said:

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The Jags were in a ton of blow outs last year and were consistently in catch-up mode and threw the ball a lot playing catch up. This year the Jags have improved their overall defense and Chris Ivory gives them another back to team with Yates to run more ball controlled offense if they have a lead. How will that better defense and running game effect Bortles TD passes?

The improved running game will only help Bortles from an efficiency standpoint and will give him more opportunites to score by keeping drives alive early in games. He's got weapons in ARob, Hurns, and Thomas. I think people are underestimating him a little here and he'll easily toss 30+ TDs again this season. I probably won't take him at that 7.1 ADP, but that's only because I can get similar production from Eli or Palmer a round and a half later.

i think you can look at it both ways. Running the ball can shorten the game and take away from a lot of his come from behind stats where he passed a ton.

Look at Matt Ryan, for example. Finally has a run game in 2015 and posted the worst numbers of his career since his rookie season.

YAJ.. any opinion on swapping the 7th pick for the 2nd in a 12 team PPR league and taking Beckham or Jones @ 2?

Guy in my league who has 2nd pick wants to move out of that slot and I think he's about willing to swap with me.

Figure I can either go WR/WR/RB, WR/RB/WR or even WR/WR/WR and wind up with 2-3 really good WR's real early and can scoop up a couple decent PPR RB's in like rd's 4 and 5.. mentioned a few guys earlier.. Mathews, Lewis, Forte, etc.

If I went RB in rd 2 I could probably get Lacy or maybe Freeman falls to me.. rd 3 Martin will probably be there. So I could do that too.

people say Bortles benefited from blowouts, but you can pencil Eli in for....

Eli had his share of blowouts (Carolina down 35 - 0?)

New Orleans (two separate two TD deficits wiped out)

Minnesota

re-look at the Jags results, I won't pretend to have watched all those games, but doesn't look like a lot of blowout losses.

I like Bortles and I like his receiving options. I like Eli too, Palmer is the most risky of the three (only saying these three because those are the three who were mentioned) in my opinion.

Mainly due to age and injury history. Odds are he doesn't make it through the season.

I'd make that swap. I'd rather have 2, 23, 26, etc.. vs 7, 18, 31

Go with Odell and then select two great options at the 2/3 turn.

normally I wouldn't say that, but everyone and I mean everyone is now firmly off the RB bandwagon and on the WR bandwagon (something I've benefited from for years). If you can get one of Brown/Beckham/Jones I think you have a huge advantage, especially in PPRs (obviously).

At 7 you lose out on all 3 and you also lose out on the top RB's.

and target WRs.

You get an elite guy in OBJ/Jones, and then 2 from the Allen/Cooks/Marshall/Hilton/Cobb/D Thomas range.
You can grab an RB in those first 3 if someone you like falls to you. There will be a few WRs left for you at 4.11 (the AZ WRs, Decker are usually there) but the drop off at WR after the middle of the 5th round is pretty stark.

If it's a PPR with 3WR and a flex, I would be wanting to get 4 WRs in the first 5 rounds.

Here's an MFL10 I'm doing right now where I had pick 3. So far my I've picked

Julio
Cooks
Reed
Forte
Cam
C Coleman
J Stewart
Deangelo

I immediately regretted the Reed and Forte picks. I could have had D Thomas, Landry or Watkins at 3.3 or John Brown or Fitzgerald at 4.10. Marvin Jones and Devante Parker were the best WRs left when it came back to me at 5.3 so I went Cam.

I definitely should have waited on TE, Eifert, Ertz and Julius Thomas are all still on the board. I may still grab one with my next pick just for a flex option and Reed insurance.

Thanks, guys. I agree.

I am trying to get him to just swap draft slots straight up but he might want to just trade #2 for #7 and then in return I'll have to bump him up in another round or something.

I just know if I stay @ 7, AB, Beckham, Jones and Hopkins are probably all off the board for when I pick and I'd have to go RB there and I'd rather get a top tier WR. Gonna see what I can maneuver here.

Guess you got DeAngelo in the 8th round before today's news broke out?

In comment 13042097 NYG27 said:

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Guess you got DeAngelo in the 8th round before today's news broke out?

Yeah, there was 1 team that picked right before me today and I guess he didn't see the news. He was on the clock for 4 hours and the rumors were already swirling before his pick got in.