Todays FF discussion

but that's without knowing anything right now about Charles. Draft as close to the start of the season as possible.

were? Just wondering if you're stacking ADP and looking at the 4 or 5 players you expect available after 9.

if it was i'd go Charles. If not i'd be leery. I envision Charles getting a lot less burn this season, especially early on. First off he's coming off injury and getting up there and second, the Chiefs have good RBs behind him and lastly, the Chiefs will want to save Charles for the stretch run/postseason. It would behoove them to ease Charles in. In PPR leagues Charles will still carry value but I am not so sure he's worth a high investment in non ppr leagues.

I'd stay far far away from Dez at pick 10. Honestly I pray I don't pick 10th unless a guy like Julio, Beckham or a safe RB makes it that far, which is doubtful.

.

In comment 13036617 djm said:

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if it was i'd go Charles. If not i'd be leery. I envision Charles getting a lot less burn this season, especially early on. First off he's coming off injury and getting up there and second, the Chiefs have good RBs behind him and lastly, the Chiefs will want to save Charles for the stretch run/postseason. It would behoove them to ease Charles in. In PPR leagues Charles will still carry value but I am not so sure he's worth a high investment in non ppr leagues. I'd stay far far away from Dez at pick 10. Honestly I pray I don't pick 10th unless a guy like Julio, Beckham or a safe RB makes it that far, which is doubtful.

agree on pick 10. Normally I don't like early picks either. I like picking in the middle, but this year I wouldn't mind picking 1 - 3. I'd get a stud WR and on the way back either another good WR or a good RB. Like Beckham and Cooks.

Alot of hype with Aj green this season because of the departure of sanu and jones. But i don't Dalton. Although i do have eifrt rated veryy highly despite his injury because of his redzone abilities.

Charles i think will do very well. His two back ups started out hot but then both fizzled. He'll be great in PPR but even in standard i would def take him at 10.

he's still a bad ass RB and from all accounts is doing just fine. He was elite the following year after his first ACL injury.

I still believe the days of Charles finishing the year as the clear cut #1 RB are gone, but he should still serve as a fine #1 RB in both standard and ppr leagues. It's pick 10, so it's not a reach at all. Nabbing Charles and a guy like Gronk or Green would work there back to back.

You have to take at least one guy without a history of injury, Green will put up solid numbers. Fair to say 80 catches for 1300 yards and ten TDs is expected? Maybe he stretches them somewhat. Charles has lots of upside althoug Miller might be the safe pick. I just don't like gronk in R1/start of R2. Remember Jordan Reed helped lots of guys win leagues last year. He was a pick up in my league. there are other good TEs you can get next time around at end of third.

then miller/Robinson.

With the 1st pick in both league's that im in. Most likely going AB in the ppr one. But in standard im not sure what direction to go. After that OBJ highlight video that got posted im thinking of just taking him #1 overall so i dont cringe every time he catches a td for someone else this season.

In comment 13036651 muhajir said:

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With the 1st pick in both league's that im in. Most likely going AB in the ppr one. But in standard im not sure what direction to go. After that OBJ highlight video that got posted im thinking of just taking him #1 overall so i dont cringe every time he catches a td for someone else this season.

AB is almost consensus #1 in all formats, but I'd be so tempted to take Beckham with my heart not head and not care. In the end I don't think their numbers will be too far apart.

In comment 13036668 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 13036651 muhajir said: Quote: With the 1st pick in both league's that im in. Most likely going AB in the ppr one. But in standard im not sure what direction to go. After that OBJ highlight video that got posted im thinking of just taking him #1 overall so i dont cringe every time he catches a td for someone else this season. AB is almost consensus #1 in all formats, but I'd be so tempted to take Beckham with my heart not head and not care. In the end I don't think their numbers will be too far apart.

Yes.. thats my thinking. Plus last yr i passed on OBJ for Cobb in the 2nd rd thinking that with Nelson out, Cobb was going to see a million targets. Tried to think with my head and not fandom. Turned out to be a horrific move. So i really dont want to miss out on OBJ again. Ill see how pre-season goes. Bell and DJ are also strong possibilities if not OBJ/AB at 1

I tend to avoid them. If they go off and have record years, it probably means they are doing well, and thats more enjoyable. If they stink, well its a double whammy.

Now if he slips to the end of round 1, thats different. But I would choose Brown and Jones over Beckham.

In comment 13036695 dep026 said:

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I tend to avoid them. If they go off and have record years, it probably means they are doing well, and thats more enjoyable. If they stink, well its a double whammy. Now if he slips to the end of round 1, thats different. But I would choose Brown and Jones over Beckham.

I'd probably take Brown over him, Jones I think I'd give the edge to Beckham.

I usually just try and draft almost a BPA approach where if the Giants player is legit BPA I take them. I don't avoid Cowboys or Eagles or Redskins like some people do, I hate hearing that. But also kind of like it if they're in my league.

certain guys though, like Beckham, that are a threat to score from almost anywhere on the field every time they get the ball I try and get on my team.

I only take Giants that slip to the point where it's hardly even a draft pick. I take Eli almost every year because he can be had in round 10. It's laughable. He's a top 10 FF QB year in year out and the 3rd best QB is typically about 10-20 pts better than the 10th best QB. Getting Eli that late is a bargain with no risk at all.

I used to take Toomer late too. No risk. I probably won't touch Beckham this season for reasons you mentioned. It's just not worth it. I'd rather let someone else take him.

as he was last year.

In comment 13036679 muhajir said:

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Yes.. thats my thinking. Plus last yr i passed on OBJ for Cobb in the 2nd rd thinking that with Nelson out, Cobb was going to see a million targets.

Wait... Beckham last until the 2nd round? And you took Randall fucking Cobb over him? Wowzer....haha

that's just gross. I took Cobb in round 3 or 4 and hated it but I didn't pass on Beckham.

My worst mistake that haunted me all year was drafting Bell with the first overall pick. He would have been fine but got hurt and then I lost Edelman, Eifert, and another front line starter whose name escapes me. I hung on for dear life and made the playoffs then lost despite scoring 90 that week. If I took Peterson, the safe pick, I probably make the finals.

You can only overcome so many injuries, especially to your front line players.

In comment 13036728 djm said:

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that's just gross. I took Cobb in round 3 or 4 and hated it but I didn't pass on Beckham. My worst mistake that haunted me all year was drafting Bell with the first overall pick. He would have been fine but got hurt and then I lost Edelman, Eifert, and another front line starter whose name escapes me. I hung on for dear life and made the playoffs then lost despite scoring 90 that week. If I took Peterson, the safe pick, I probably make the finals. You can only overcome so many injuries, especially to your front line players.

I drafted Bell overall number 1. Foster in the 3rd round. Hyde in the 6th round. I was forced with Lamar Miller being underutilized and rotating shit backs. Definitely not fun.

.

i took miller in the 4th and hyde in the 5th. I took foster in 8th knowing he was injured.

Dez scares me with the foot injuries.

in a 10 team, ppr league. (I pick 8th.) Would you?

In comment 13036761 davek3698 said:

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in a 10 team, ppr league. (I pick 8th.) Would you?

What do you have to give up to keep them? Who are your other keeper options?

In comment 13036720 dep026 said:

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In comment 13036679 muhajir said: Quote: Yes.. thats my thinking. Plus last yr i passed on OBJ for Cobb in the 2nd rd thinking that with Nelson out, Cobb was going to see a million targets. Wait... Beckham last until the 2nd round? And you took Randall fucking Cobb over him? Wowzer....haha

Lol.. yea. At the time Obj had to share target's with randle and cruz (this was before cruz went on to miss the entire yr). And Cobb had a better Oline, better Qb, better offense, and a bunch of no names at wr and TE after nelson went out. Figured hed get his normal share, plus at least 50% of what Nelson used to give them. I envisioned Cobb making the leap that Hopkins did and gambled on him. Then he had that 3 td game like week 2 and i was going to break my arm patting myself on the back that night. He went on to suck balls all yr. While the guy who took obj the very next pic giggled all yr.

and JC. Though for some reason, JC has been falling in my mock drafts to the 2nd round. Dez has so many ????'s. Will Romo stay healthy? will he stay healthy? Gronk is losing Brady. AJ is going to get a ton of work. 10/11 is to early for Miller. It's still unknown if he can be an every down back.

in a standard format.

It would cost my 3rd and 4th round pick. I have nobody else of note really worth it, besides those two. Worth it? Thanks.

In comment 13036841 davek3698 said:

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It would cost my 3rd and 4th round pick. I have nobody else of note really worth it, besides those two. Worth it? Thanks.

Yes probably, but are top 40 players, IMO.

after a few years of sucking. Not sure he'll repeat. Though probably still a top 40 pick. Ingram is a definite keeper at that price if he stays healthy.

You may be hurting for RBs, and it depends on the structure of your league, but AJ and Gronk is where I go with those 2 picks. Best TE by far, and a top 5 WR.

as well. I just don't trust Dez' injury and his ceiling isn't that much higher than Green's at this point.

Even if Gronk had Brady for a full season. I just can't do it.

Gronk at 10/11. his ADP is 9.

In comment 13036998 pjcas18 said:

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Gronk at 10/11. his ADP is 9.

That's just silly. If you can get a RB like Davonta Freeman or a WR like AJ Green who both scored more points than Gronk last year, why wouldn't you? You can pick up Jordan Reed at a better value later in the draft.

as reasoning is silly.

In comment 13037012 leatherneck570 said:

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as reasoning is silly.

His ADP was not the reason to take him, only evidence that a significant portion of the population does not consider it too early to take a TE as you do.

In comment 13037009 leatherneck570 said:

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In comment 13036998 pjcas18 said: Quote: Gronk at 10/11. his ADP is 9. That's just silly. If you can get a RB like Davonta Freeman or a WR like AJ Green who both scored more points than Gronk last year, why wouldn't you? You can pick up Jordan Reed at a better value later in the draft.

Jordan Reed is made of glass. This can really go both ways. I can see not wanting to spend a premium pick on a TE, but he has so much better than nearly every other TE (and more consistent), and there's something to be said about winning that position in your H2H match every week, usually by a landslide.

But still had 11 TD's last year.

Looks like jimmy graham 2.0. Due for a healthy season too. Def will grab him if hes there in the 4th. If not then Eifrt in the 5th

he's 1 concussion away from either the season or his career ending. I hate typing that because I really like him as a player, you have to take injuries like that into the equation, IMO. He's also likely to get drafted much higher than he should.

Thats a guy I would not reach for. I was fortunate enough in that no one even drafted him last year in my main league and I picked him up immediately after because I drafted Gates in one of the last rounds who was suspended for the first 4 games. Wound up with the best TE tandem in the league and the cost was essentially nothing pick-wise.

I'm not going to get a repeat of that this year but I feel like in most leagues, someone is going to reach for Reed and overdraft him. I don't want to be that team.

Knowing he was out for the first few weeks. I can't even remember who else I drafted to mitigate his status, maybe Donnell? I ended up signing eifert week 2 or 3 so I was set until his injury later on that year forced me to go Thomas. I ended up just fine but hoping that happens again is risky. I hate taking TEs early in typical leagues but also can't ignore the position. I just might go Julius Thomas again but he may be drafted earlier this year? He not hurt.

He could probably be had pretty late in the drafts I'd think? Maybe a nice combo taking Thomas and eifert back to back rounds --- could you get them both in rounds 7-8-9 or so?

and there have to be more choices. No way that Lamar Miller should even be in the conversation at #10.

I would rather have Gurley for example

In comment 13037370 EricJ said:

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and there have to be more choices. No way that Lamar Miller should even be in the conversation at #10. I would rather have Gurley for example

Miller is going to be a stud this year. I rather him than Elliot. If its PPR, I may take him over both AP and Gurley.

In comment 13037370 EricJ said:

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and there have to be more choices. No way that Lamar Miller should even be in the conversation at #10. I would rather have Gurley for example

Then you better be picking higher than 10, because Gurley's ADP is 6.

chances are Gurley won't be around at 10 in a standard league.

In comment 13037470 leatherneck570 said:

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chances are Gurley won't be around at 10 in a standard league.

6 is his PPR ADP. I'd guess it's higher in a standard. I'd also guess that there is 0 chance Gurley is around at 10 in a standard format.

AB
Julio
OBJ
Bell
Gurley/David Johnson

I have the 3rd pick and rumor is Brown and Bell are going top 2. Yesterday I said that I would take a comparable player over a Giants player and I have that situation now. Beckham or Jones.

Do I stay true to my word or do I just take Beckham and go all in.

...sorry in advance....

In comment 13037754 dep026 said:

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I have the 3rd pick and rumor is Brown and Bell are going top 2. Yesterday I said that I would take a comparable player over a Giants player and I have that situation now. Beckham or Jones. Do I stay true to my word or do I just take Beckham and go all in.

Taking Beckham there would be totally justified, IMO. Assuming PPR, obviously. You really can't go wrong with he or Jones.

.

In comment 13037754 dep026 said:

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I have the 3rd pick and rumor is Brown and Bell are going top 2. Yesterday I said that I would take a comparable player over a Giants player and I have that situation now. Beckham or Jones. Do I stay true to my word or do I just take Beckham and go all in.

Beckham all day IMO.

I just heard Elliott is going #1 in my league. WTF. It's PPR, but I think this has to be unprecedented a rookie going #1 overall.

And I like Elliott, he's a top 5 back IMO right now, but #1?

Julio is a one man show in Atlanta. But OBJ....

.

Julio had 203 targets 1878 yards and 8 TD's last year.
OBJ? 158 1,450 yards and 13 TD's.

Which way do you think OBJ's targets are going to go next season?

good. Lot of blame to go around in case it doesnt work out.

If its Bell/beckham - you still go OBJ?

I'd go Bell. He's going to be touching the ball a lot more than OBJ.

I'd have to see Le'Veon a little bit and know he's going to be healthy first but if you told me he was going to be all systems go come Week 1, I would probably lean his way.

In comment 13037572 leatherneck570 said:

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AB Julio OBJ Bell Gurley/David Johnson

For standard leagues at least, AP has to be right there with Gurley (and both ahead of DJ).

RN, it looks like AP and DJ are back to back. DJ is ranked higher on Fantasy Pros but Peterson's ADP is one spot higher. It goes Gurley, AP, then DJ when it comes to RB's off the board.

I am taking AP over DJ every time.

and I won't have to make that choice but I 'd probably do the same simply do to workload. Arizona has 3 mouths to feed.

.

it's the mid round WR's I'm interested in. There's a lot of good value and some fool's gold imo. Who does everyone like in rounds 4 and up?

In comment 13038261 leatherneck570 said:

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it's the mid round WR's I'm interested in. There's a lot of good value and some fool's gold imo. Who does everyone like in rounds 4 and up?

Jarvis Landry, especially in PPR. I like Cooks to really break out this year too.

In comment 13038267 dep026 said:

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In comment 13038261 leatherneck570 said: Quote: it's the mid round WR's I'm interested in. There's a lot of good value and some fool's gold imo. Who does everyone like in rounds 4 and up? Jarvis Landry, especially in PPR. I like Cooks to really break out this year too.

I think he meant 4th round and later. Landry/Cooks are going in the top 3 rounds in a PPR.

especially where he's getting drafted. Other WR's I like:

Michael Floyd
Donte Moncrief
Crabtree
Lockett

In comment 13038267 dep026 said:

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In comment 13038261 leatherneck570 said: Quote: it's the mid round WR's I'm interested in. There's a lot of good value and some fool's gold imo. Who does everyone like in rounds 4 and up? Jarvis Landry, especially in PPR. I like Cooks to really break out this year too.

I don't think either of those two are available in the 4th or later, at least not in 12 team ppr (Landry). Maybe in 10-team leagyes.

I think some good bets there are maybe Golden Tate (borderline if he's there), John Brown, Allen Hurns, Donte Moncrief, Doug Baldwin, and then some rookies like Shepard (later than 4th, but I like him not just a homer), Coleman, Fuller, Doctson, and if you can steal Kelvin Benjamin try to, he should be gone by the 4th, but he might not be highly rated so people that go by rankings or online drafts might miss him.

In comment 13038273 YAJ2112 said:

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In comment 13038267 dep026 said: Quote: In comment 13038261 leatherneck570 said: Quote: it's the mid round WR's I'm interested in. There's a lot of good value and some fool's gold imo. Who does everyone like in rounds 4 and up? Jarvis Landry, especially in PPR. I like Cooks to really break out this year too. I think he meant 4th round and later. Landry/Cooks are going in the top 3 rounds in a PPR.

oops...... how about ryan mathews? I mean the injury risk is always a problem. But you wonder if he will be used much like Charles was in KC. Lot of catches. Lot of touches.

Michael Floyd will be the best Cardinals WR this year. Remember, contract year this year.

that are iffy imo. Detroit picked up Maurice Jones who's being called WR 1B already so we'll have to see how that plays out.

Du'oh

In comment 13038285 dep026 said:

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Michael Floyd will be the best Cardinals WR this year. Remember, contract year this year.

I like Floyd, he's a player I'll have an asterisk near at my draft meaning I'm targeting him, but I keep wanting to bury Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer won't let me.

And John Brown is the deep threat there, since Fitz moved to the slot.

and all three of them will catch passes.

is that I think he'll be good early (until he gets hurt of course), which should buy you time to find a guy or 2 on the waiver wire.

In comment 13038302 YAJ2112 said:

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is that I think he'll be good early (until he gets hurt of course), which should buy you time to find a guy or 2 on the waiver wire.

Hot start is also an opportunity to trade him to the league idiot!

What does everyone make of the Oakland backfield?

I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while.

In comment 13038311 leatherneck570 said:

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What does everyone make of the Oakland backfield?

I think Latavius Murray will be much better than last year. the addition of Osemele and Penn should help a pretty bad line. I don't love him, but he could be a nice late-early round pick up (4th/5th).

is a TE who you maybe able to pick up late as well. Should see a lot of targets in Pitt.

In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said:

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I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while.

I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick

In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said:

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I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while.

This is the way I'm leaning.

In comment 13038319 Sonic Youth said:

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In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said: Quote: I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while. I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick

In the 4th/5th round, I'm looking for someone who's better than reasonably solid or at least has the upside to be better than that.

In comment 13038318 dep026 said:

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is a TE who you maybe able to pick up late as well. Should see a lot of targets in Pitt.

Green has been going a little too high for my tastes... His ADP is right around 100, in the 10-12 range for TEs. You're counting on him as a starter at that price. I feel like he should have been more productive with SD when he had opportunities with Gates out. Not a guy I'll have on very many teams unless his price drops.

In comment 13038343 YAJ2112 said:

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In comment 13038318 dep026 said: Quote: is a TE who you maybe able to pick up late as well. Should see a lot of targets in Pitt. Green has been going a little too high for my tastes... His ADP is right around 100, in the 10-12 range for TEs. You're counting on him as a starter at that price. I feel like he should have been more productive with SD when he had opportunities with Gates out. Not a guy I'll have on very many teams unless his price drops.

Maybe a guy like Fleener then?

In comment 13038327 YAJ2112 said:

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In comment 13038319 Sonic Youth said: Quote: In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said: Quote: I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while. I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick In the 4th/5th round, I'm looking for someone who's better than reasonably solid or at least has the upside to be better than that.

In standard and PPR in 2015 Murray was the 10th or 11th rated RB (total points).

You might get someone better in the 4th/5th, but he would have been the 13th WR (standard scoring) for comparison sake.

I think that's about where he'll go and I think he'll outperform his draft position based on the OL improvement, Cooper improvements and Carr improvements.

he's around 80 in ADP though, so he's already priced up.

I'd rather go with Julius Thomas or Ertz who are being drafted just before Green in that same range right before pick 100.

In comment 13038353 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 13038327 YAJ2112 said: Quote: In comment 13038319 Sonic Youth said: Quote: In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said: Quote: I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while. I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick In the 4th/5th round, I'm looking for someone who's better than reasonably solid or at least has the upside to be better than that. In standard and PPR in 2015 Murray was the 10th or 11th rated RB (total points). You might get someone better in the 4th/5th, but he would have been the 13th WR (standard scoring) for comparison sake. I think that's about where he'll go and I think he'll outperform his draft position based on the OL improvement, Cooper improvements and Carr improvements.

The only reason he was in the top 10 in total points is that he stayed healthy all season. He averaged 10 points a game in standard and only had I think 3 games of 15+. You can stream RBs off waivers and get at least 7-8 points a week. I'd rather use a pick that early on a higher ceiling guy.

So my draft is still about a month away but I know I am picking 7th in a 12 team PPR league.

I actually think AP is going to be on the board there and would be very tempted to take him if he is. I have a feeling most of the guys are going to take WR's early.. I expect Brown and Beckham to both be gone top 3. I expect Julio to also be off the board. I think there's a shot Hopkins could fall to me. I think Bell and one of Gurley/DJ will go before me but not both.

I could also consider Gronk. I really hate taking a TE in rd 1 though. I kind of want to avoid that.

In comment 13038382 YAJ2112 said:

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In comment 13038353 pjcas18 said: Quote: In comment 13038327 YAJ2112 said: Quote: In comment 13038319 Sonic Youth said: Quote: In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said: Quote: I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while. I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick In the 4th/5th round, I'm looking for someone who's better than reasonably solid or at least has the upside to be better than that. In standard and PPR in 2015 Murray was the 10th or 11th rated RB (total points). You might get someone better in the 4th/5th, but he would have been the 13th WR (standard scoring) for comparison sake. I think that's about where he'll go and I think he'll outperform his draft position based on the OL improvement, Cooper improvements and Carr improvements. The only reason he was in the top 10 in total points is that he stayed healthy all season. He averaged 10 points a game in standard and only had I think 3 games of 15+. You can stream RBs off waivers and get at least 7-8 points a week. I'd rather use a pick that early on a higher ceiling guy.

I'm not so sure about this, but there is something to be said for consistency. and going in to the draft with a plan to stream your RB2 is not something I'd have as a goal.

Shoot for the moon in the 5th round, I'm not saying not to, but in the end Latavius Murray will probably outpoint who you pick if he's there.

And that's with thinking he had a down year last year and I expect an improvement.

Here are my RB rankings (standard scoring):
1. A/P
2. Bell (really 1 and 1a I think both will be good)
3. Gurley
4. DJ
5. Elliott
6. Charles
7. Miller
8. Martin
9. Freeman
10. Ingram
11. Forte
12. Lacy
13. McCoy
14. Hyde
15. Anderson
16. Rawls* (I could move him up)
17. L. Murray
18. Stewart
19. D. Murray
20. Mathews

not many surprises and reorder these how you want but my guess is they're pretty much a consensus top 20, and with L. Murray at 17, that probably puts his ADP in the 4th round in 12 team, 5th the latest, so not sure what you're hoping for in the 4th/5th. Unless you gamble on a Jeremy Hill, Arian Foster, or Duke Johnson (from a RB standpoint).

In comment 13039133 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 13038382 YAJ2112 said: Quote: In comment 13038353 pjcas18 said: Quote: In comment 13038327 YAJ2112 said: Quote: In comment 13038319 Sonic Youth said: Quote: In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said: Quote: I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while. I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick In the 4th/5th round, I'm looking for someone who's better than reasonably solid or at least has the upside to be better than that. In standard and PPR in 2015 Murray was the 10th or 11th rated RB (total points). You might get someone better in the 4th/5th, but he would have been the 13th WR (standard scoring) for comparison sake. I think that's about where he'll go and I think he'll outperform his draft position based on the OL improvement, Cooper improvements and Carr improvements. The only reason he was in the top 10 in total points is that he stayed healthy all season. He averaged 10 points a game in standard and only had I think 3 games of 15+. You can stream RBs off waivers and get at least 7-8 points a week. I'd rather use a pick that early on a higher ceiling guy. I'm not so sure about this, but there is something to be said for consistency. and going in to the draft with a plan to stream your RB2 is not something I'd have as a goal. Shoot for the moon in the 5th round, I'm not saying not to, but in the end Latavius Murray will probably outpoint who you pick if he's there. And that's with thinking he had a down year last year and I expect an improvement. Here are my RB rankings (standard scoring): 1. A/P 2. Bell (really 1 and 1a I think both will be good) 3. Gurley 4. DJ 5. Elliott 6. Charles 7. Miller 8. Martin 9. Freeman 10. Ingram 11. Forte 12. Lacy 13. McCoy 14. Hyde 15. Anderson 16. Rawls* (I could move him up) 17. L. Murray 18. Stewart 19. D. Murray 20. Mathews not many surprises and reorder these how you want but my guess is they're pretty much a consensus top 20, and with L. Murray at 17, that probably puts his ADP in the 4th round in 12 team, 5th the latest, so not sure what you're hoping for in the 4th/5th. Unless you gamble on a Jeremy Hill, Arian Foster, or Duke Johnson (from a RB standpoint).

My top 20

Le'Veon Bell
Todd Gurley
David Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Jamaal Charles
Ezekiel Elliott
Lamar Miller
Mark Ingram
LeSean McCoy
Doug Martin
Devonta Freeman
Eddie Lacy
Ryan Mathews
Thomas Rawls
Matt Jones
Latavius Murray
Jonathan Stewart
C.J. Anderson
DeMarco Murray


Not too different. Apparently you're a lot higher on Hyde than I am lol.

when he was healthy last year, which just wasn't very often.

I'm intrigued by him in Chip Kelly's system. they don't have a lot of receiving options. I can swap him for Matt Jones, but I think Hyde is a gamble worth taking (at some point).

but I'd rather take upside guys later in the draft with the knowledge that I'll be hitting the waiver wire if/when some of those guys don't pan out. And every year, I know I'll be able to find RBs on waivers that can at worst get me by for a couple of weeks and at best can perform like a mid-high draft pick if I get the right guy.

If you think Murray has more upside than he showed last year, then he's a good pick there. Personally, I think it's more likely that Washington overtakes him by year end than there is that he ends up as a top 10 RB again. Of course I could be wrong (see Justin Forsett last year) and I do play in mainly PPRs, so your mileage may vary.

Consistency can be good, but

I guess to make my earlier post simpler.. since everyone loves rankings. How would you rank these players in a PPR league?

Gurley
DJ
Hopkins
Gronk
AJ
Elliott

Sorry, that should include AP.. and I'll throw Dez in for kicks

So..

Gurley
DJ
Hopkins
Gronk
AP
AJ
Elliott
Dez

I think Murray had a very good season as a first year starter. Here are his stats split over the first 8 games and last 8 games of the Raiders season.

First 8 - 132 carries - 630 rushing - 4.77 per carry - 21 receptions - 3 TD
Last 8 - 134 - 436 - 3.25 - 20 - 3

First half of the season he was amazing an was Top 5 scoring back in most leagues. What happened in the second half, was it Murray hit a wall or was it rather the entire Raiders offense hit a wall.

Personally, I think Murray gets a bad wrap from fantasy football "experts". It just wasn't Murray struggling in the second half of the season. Just look at Derek Carr, he went from amazing 19 TD - 4 INT split first half to just 13-9 in the second. Amari Cooper went from a blazing 45-653-4 first half line to limping at the end with just 27-417-2 second half.

Point is, why is Murray being crapped on for a poor second half, while both Carr\Cooper who also struggled are supposed to be on the "upswing" from these same fantasy experts.

In my opinion, with the improvements the Raiders made to their O-Line, along with the improvements expected from Carr\Cooper should open up thing more for Murray to post similar numbers to his first half of the season where he was a top 5 scoring RB.

and probably shouldn't have been on the field.

In comment 13039238 arcarsenal said:

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Sorry, that should include AP.. and I'll throw Dez in for kicks So.. Gurley DJ Hopkins Gronk AP AJ Elliott Dez

Gurley
AP
Hopkins
DJ
AJ
Gronk
Elliot
Dez

Point is that whole Raiders offense struggled in the second half, not just Murray. With the continued improvements of Carr/Cooper, improved O-Line and Clive Walford is also an upgrade at TE. Factor all those in, I see an up tick with Murray's production from 2015 where he already ranked as the Top 10/11 overall RB in most leagues.

I'd go:

Gurley
DJ
Hopkins
AP
AJ
Elliott
Gronk
Dez

but really any of the top 4 in my list I could shuffle. And Dez is only last because of his and Romo's injury potential.

I mentioned in my keeper league (which is sort of skewed b/c not everyone is available) the guy already said (if healthy on draft day) he's taking Elliott #1 overall.

changes everything.

Yeah, there's still so much time so who knows who will get hurt and how things will shake out in preseason..

But I am pretty sure the first 4 picks in my league will be

Brown
Beckham
Bell
Jones

Which means one of Gurley/DJ/Hopkins are going to be there when I pick. So I need to figure out if I would definitely take whichever one it is over AP/Gronk/AJ (or Elliott/Dez)

DJ still scares me because of CJ2k and Ellington. Guys like Gurley and Peterson you KNOW are getting like 90% of the carries/touches out of the backfield. I still am not sold that DJ is going to get that and if he doesn't, I don't want to take him 7th. The upside is huge though. I'm pretty torn.

Is no one else worried about his recovery from two torn ligaments? It's not just a straight torn ACL recovery that AP recovered from in 9 months and had an MVP type season. Seems like everyone is automatically penciling him in as a Top 3 RB and assuming that he returns back to his prior form.

Plus on top of that, one more drug incident and he's gone for a full year. There was rumors a few months ago that he missed or delayed a random drug test but that is just another concern to think about if you have a top 5 selection.

if I still played FF, I would probably put a few RBs ahead of him only because I would want minimal risk with a RB taken in the first half of the first round.

At this point, Bell might be 3 or 4 on my RB list

Gurley has to be the pick

In comment 13039415 jlukes said:

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Gurley has to be the pick

I like Gurley a lot, but the main thing that scares me about him is a rookie QB and a pretty awful WR group.

still I'd take him there, but it's not like he doesn't have his own questions.

I wouldn't be shocked if Elliott is the #1 RB at season's end if he gets the touches. He has the best situation at RB of anyone. Good QB, good WR group, best OL in the game and his own skills. injury to the other parts are the biggest risk with Elliott - plus touches - no clue how they ease him in as a rookie or just throw him right into the fire with 25 - 30 touches per game.

I'd probably take Gurley if he was still on the board @ 7 but the one thing with him is that he's really not that involved in the passing game. He caught less than 2 passes per game last year. That's the only thing that sticks out to me since it's a PPR league. DJ seems like he's going to be a lot more involved in the passing game but there's no question Gurley is the better runner.

I took a nice break last year and left all my leagues and it was a really good break. Although I did miss it and re-joined the GFFLL this year.

I kinda just feel like Peterson is becoming undervalued. The man was still a monster last year. He led the league in attempts, yards, TD's and YPG.

I realize he's not going to be able to produce like this forever but I think he still has a dominant year or two left in the tank and it feels like most people are putting Bell, Gurley and DJ all ahead of him. I've seen Elliott ahead of him and even Miller as well. The dude is ranked TWENTY SECOND in ESPN's Top 300 for PPR leagues. That's absurd to me.

go anywhere from #1 to #5 at RB and feel like the drafter made a solid pick based on the other RB's they take (Bell, Gurley, DJ, and Elliott - with Elliott being the biggest stretch.

I haven't seen him less than 5 in any of the mocks I've done.

in one site I check they have his best at #1 and his worst #9 with a Average around 4.

In comment 13039427 NYG27 said:

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I took a nice break last year and left all my leagues and it was a really good break. Although I did miss it and re-joined the GFFLL this year.

Yeah - was not in a single league last year. Was selling a house, buying a house, and was finishing my MBA and FF was just causing more frustration than fun.

arcarsenal said:

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I kinda just feel like Peterson is becoming undervalued. The man was still a monster last year. He led the league in attempts, yards, TD's and YPG. I realize he's not going to be able to produce like this forever but I think he still has a dominant year or two left in the tank and it feels like most people are putting Bell, Gurley and DJ all ahead of him. I've seen Elliott ahead of him and even Miller as well. The dude is ranked TWENTY SECOND in ESPN's Top 300 for PPR leagues. That's absurd to me.

I totally agree about Peterson. Vikings improved their O-Line a lot by signing Andre Smith whose looking to bounce back on a 1 year contract before hitting free agency next year. The Alex Boone signing helps two fold, as he upgrades the Vikings LG position and bounces Brandon Fusco (who struggled at LG) back to his natural RG position where he had more success.

I'm hoping the attention on all these WRs and other RBs pushed AP down to my 8th overall pick in my draft.

Gurley
David Johnson
Crowell
Vereen
Amari Cooper
Allen Robinson
Keenan Allen
Dorsett
Jordan Reed

In comment 13039449 NYG27 said:

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arcarsenal said: Quote: I kinda just feel like Peterson is becoming undervalued. The man was still a monster last year. He led the league in attempts, yards, TD's and YPG. I realize he's not going to be able to produce like this forever but I think he still has a dominant year or two left in the tank and it feels like most people are putting Bell, Gurley and DJ all ahead of him. I've seen Elliott ahead of him and even Miller as well. The dude is ranked TWENTY SECOND in ESPN's Top 300 for PPR leagues. That's absurd to me. I totally agree about Peterson. Vikings improved their O-Line a lot by signing Andre Smith whose looking to bounce back on a 1 year contract before hitting free agency next year. The Alex Boone signing helps two fold, as he upgrades the Vikings LG position and bounces Brandon Fusco (who struggled at LG) back to his natural RG position where he had more success. I'm hoping the attention on all these WRs and other RBs pushed AP down to my 8th overall pick in my draft.

They also added Treadwell who should help keep Ds a little more honest, particularly in the red zone. And Bridgewater's entering his 3rd season, so there's potential for a nice jump in performance there as well.

jlukes said:

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Gurley David Johnson Crowell Vereen Amari Cooper Allen Robinson Keenan Allen Dorsett Jordan Reed

Yup, that team won the championship last year. I'm more in a rebuilding mode with this following team....

QBs Drew Brees, Tyrod Taylor, Brock Osweiler

RBs Latavius Murry, Jeremy Langford, Jay Ajayi, DeAngelo Williams, Jerrick McKinnon, Charcandrick West, Devontae Booker, CJ Prosise and Alex Collins

WRs Kevin White, Devante Parker, Eric Decker, Travis Benjamin, Steve Smith and Jeff Janis

TEs Coby Fleener, LaDarius Green and Seth Devalve

K Josh Brown

D\ST Giants

Overall, with this leagues high QB and TE scoring, I'm in pretty good shape with Brees and Fleener\Green. I just need my young WRs White and Parker to develop on their potential or I'll have to count on Decker, Benjamin and Smith to carry me this season. Janis is my wild card if he can win the Packers #3 WR job, since the Packers #3 WR played about 70% of their offensive snaps last year.

giants#1 said:

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They also added Treadwell who should help keep Ds a little more honest, particularly in the red zone. And Bridgewater's entering his 3rd season, so there's potential for a nice jump in performance there as well.

Exactly, forgot to mention Treadwell and hopefully Stefon Diggs builds on his strong rookie season. Not to mention that this was the first time Kyle Rudolph was healthy and participated in the Vikings off-season program in several years. Bridgewater has more weapons to take off pressure from Peterson and prevent defenses from stacking the box as much as they did last year.

While it might be great to land Cam, Rodgers or Luck but why not wait till rounds 6 to 9 and pick up a guy like Eli, Cousins or Dalton on the cheap.

Even a guy like Tom Brady who has a 4 game suspension might drop to the 6th or 7th rounds.

No chance I am going QB early.

Considering targeting Brady and then trying to piggyback him him with Bortles. Bortles really flew under the radar last year, he put up some numbers.

It's not going to be as easy to wait on Eli this year, IMO.. a lot more people are going to be onto that and I think he's going to get taken a round or two sooner than usual.

It'd be nice to end up with Gronk, Reed or Olsen but I have no interest in investing a high pick on a TE.

There will be alot of bargain TEs in rounds 6-10 like Fleener, Green, Ertz or Julius Thomas.

If you even miss out on those guys, there are nice 3rd tier TEs with upside like Eric Ebron, Jordan Cameron or Jared Cook.

Even young TE like Will Tye, Jeff Heuerman, Clive Walford and Hunter Henry all have a lot of upside.

I'm loading up on RB's and WR's. MY QB will probably be my last pick, just like it was last year (Carson Palmer).

you can basically pick up whoever is playing the saints and get a great week out of him.

In comment 13040545 leatherneck570 said:

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you can basically pick up whoever is playing the saints and get a great week out of him.

You pretty much can't actually do that though unless that was hyperbole.

the Saints play:

the Panthers twice (Cam Newton is definitely going to be drafted)

Falcons twice (Ryan will more than likely be drafted, late, but he'll go)

Bucs twice (Winston will probably be drafted)

Giants, Eli will be drafted

Raiders, Carr will be drafted

Chargers, Rivers will be drafted

Chiefs, there is a good chance you can pick up Alex Smith, but they're a run-first team, doubt he does well even against the Saints

Seahawks, Wilson will be drafted

49ers, go ahead, stream Blaine Gabbert

Broncos, go ahead, stream Mark Sanchez

Rams, Goff is probably going to be drafted late in keeper leagues, but you could probably stream him and his worst receiving group in the NFL

Lions, Stafford will be drafted

Cardinals, Palmer will be drafted

So in your plan you could at-best stream Gabbert, Sanchez, and maybe Alex Smith and Jared Goff.

Better hope your WR's and RB's go off because your QB isn't helping you.

I don't advocate drafting a QB early, but the 8 - 12 round range could get you a solid starting QB in the top 10 and it makes a difference IMO.

no that was a hyperbole.

Streaming QB's is effective. In a 10 team league, is there really that much of a difference Palmer, Manning, Cousins, Carr, Dalton, Cousins etc... when picking later in the draft anyway?

been Stafford.

Between 2 leagues last year, I had 4 TE's.. Reed and Gates in one and Kelce/JThomas in another. Kelce was the guy I took "earlyish" (5th rd I think?) and I probably got the least value out of him. Julius didn't play the whole year but by the end of the season I was using him over Kelce.

Definitely waiting on TE as well and loading up on WR's/RB's first handful of rounds.

In comment 13040567 leatherneck570 said:

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Streaming QB's is effective. In a 10 team league, is there really that much of a difference Palmer, Manning, Cousins, Carr, Dalton, Cousins etc... when picking later in the draft anyway?

No, not much difference and I miss the 10-team league days, my two leagues have both expanded to 12 teams. Far less forgiving for draft day blunders, simple reaches, or worse injuries.

or a WR/RB with some breakout potential, personally.

In comment 13040474 arcarsenal said:

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No chance I am going QB early. Considering targeting Brady and then trying to piggyback him him with Bortles. Bortles really flew under the radar last year, he put up some numbers. It's not going to be as easy to wait on Eli this year, IMO.. a lot more people are going to be onto that and I think he's going to get taken a round or two sooner than usual.

I think Bortles goes higher than Eli. People love upside and Bortles was already as good as Eli last season.

In comment 13040582 giants#1 said:

Quote:

In comment 13040474 arcarsenal said: Quote: No chance I am going QB early. Considering targeting Brady and then trying to piggyback him him with Bortles. Bortles really flew under the radar last year, he put up some numbers. It's not going to be as easy to wait on Eli this year, IMO.. a lot more people are going to be onto that and I think he's going to get taken a round or two sooner than usual. I think Bortles goes higher than Eli. People love upside and Bortles was already as good as Eli last season.

I'm targeting Carr in the 8th/9th. Eli was kept in my keeper league in the 8th.

I'm certainly not suggesting to draft a QB early. But like I said 8 - 12 you can get real value.

that would give me 4 RB's and 4 WR's or some combination there of 3 and 4 before taking any other position.

I reviewed our draft results last night - we had a prep meeting for my league and round 9 players were like Davante Parker, Markus Wheaton, Roddy White, Stevie Johnson, Julius Thomas - I guarantee a QB would provide more value there than practically anyone in that round. of the 12 team the best 9th round picks were: Michael Floyd and McFadden and a QB was still better IMO.

and fumbled 8 times last year. And he may lose some passing TD's to Ivory. Just some food for thought.

I think I read somewhere that JAX wants to run the ball a little more this year.. which may or may not wind up being the case but I think I'd still take Eli over Bortles at this point (being as unbiased as I can be) now that this is his 3rd year in Ben Mac's system and he's going to have more weapons.

easy.

he's a turnover machine, and can just as easily regress as he can improve. Not betting either way on that guy.

Eli is going to have some turnovers but he's got every opportunity to duplicate his TD's from last year with room to grow. I'd virtually lock him in to 30+ TD's outside of injury to him or Beckham.

Yeah, I mean I'd be really surprised if Bortles ADP jumped ahead of Eli's at any point in the next month.

I'd love to have Bortles as my QB2 and would even be okay with him as my QB1 (though I wouldn't feel that comfortable with it) but Eli is far, far safer IMO.

In comment 13040606 arcarsenal said:

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I think I read somewhere that JAX wants to run the ball a little more this year.. which may or may not wind up being the case but I think I'd still take Eli over Bortles at this point (being as unbiased as I can be) now that this is his 3rd year in Ben Mac's system and he's going to have more weapons.

And it's Bortles 3rd year in the NFL. And Allen Robinson's 3rd season as well. Plus the 2nd (first full) season of Bortles with Julius Thomas.

A competent running game (and D) could also keep pressure off Bortles to try and make plays and thus keep the TOs down.

In comment 13040615 arcarsenal said:

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Yeah, I mean I'd be really surprised if Bortles ADP jumped ahead of Eli's at any point in the next month. I'd love to have Bortles as my QB2 and would even be okay with him as my QB1 (though I wouldn't feel that comfortable with it) but Eli is far, far safer IMO.

in NFFC leagues, Bortles ADP is 72.9 and Eli is 89.1

.

In comment 13040655 leatherneck570 said:

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.

don't forget that Bortles rushes quite a bit. He had 310 yards and 2 TDs on the ground last year.

Surprised about the ADP's re: Bortles/Eli.. I guess I was wrong.

I have 7th pick in my 12 team league. The guy with the 2nd pick really doesn't want it.. I'm tempted to try and swap with him and take Beckham. Being too much of a homer? I feel like I could get someone like Keenan Allen in rd 2 and then grab a RB with my 3rd pick.

.

We would just swap draft slots. He'd pick 7th and I'd pick 2nd. He just doesn't want the 2nd pick, I guess he feels like he could draft a better team from another slot.

In comment 13041467 arcarsenal said:

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We would just swap draft slots. He'd pick 7th and I'd pick 2nd. He just doesn't want the 2nd pick, I guess he feels like he could draft a better team from another slot.

PPR?

In comment 13041478 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

In comment 13041467 arcarsenal said: Quote: We would just swap draft slots. He'd pick 7th and I'd pick 2nd. He just doesn't want the 2nd pick, I guess he feels like he could draft a better team from another slot. PPR?

Yup

basically what you're looking at with your first three picks is:

2nd pick (2, 23, 26)

2: Beckham (or Bell, Jones, Gurley, Elliott, AP)
23: Cooks (Marshall, Lacy, Ingram, Cooper)
26: Martin, Lacy, D. Thomas, Hilton

7th pick (7, 18, 31)

7: David Johnson (AJ Green, Gurley, AP)
18: Allen (Charles, Freeman, Jeffrey)
31: Edelman (Watkins, McCoy, Cobb, Landry)

I'd take 2, 23, 26 I think.

Yeah or I could even go WR/WR/WR and have an elite corps and then target RB/RB in 4 and 5... maybe Dion Lewis/Mathews.. or maybe Forte is there.

I feel like in PPR if you can just fill your RB spots with guys who will catch a few passes a game you're good. Even a guy like Woodhead you can start regularly.

In comment 13041534 arcarsenal said:

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Yeah or I could even go WR/WR/WR and have an elite corps and then target RB/RB in 4 and 5... maybe Dion Lewis/Mathews.. or maybe Forte is there. I feel like in PPR if you can just fill your RB spots with guys who will catch a few passes a game you're good. Even a guy like Woodhead you can start regularly.

Agree. If you get Beckham, Cooks and TY Hilton at 47 you can get a Latavius Murray, Demarco Murray, Danny Woodhead (sometimes underrated in PPR) or even reach for Duke Johnson or Jeremy Langford who have upside. Even Matt Jones. Your RB1 would be weak, but you'd be stacked at WR. You could probably even get two of those backs I named so your RB1 and 2 could be Latavius Murray and Danny Woodhead. With Beckham, Cooks and Hilton, that's a solid core.

arcarsenal said:

Quote:

Yeah or I could even go WR/WR/WR and have an elite corps and then target RB/RB in 4 and 5... maybe Dion Lewis/Mathews.. or maybe Forte is there. I feel like in PPR if you can just fill your RB spots with guys who will catch a few passes a game you're good. Even a guy like Woodhead you can start regularly.

Arc, I did that last year where I took Odell at #10 and wanted CJ Anderson with my 2nd round pick at #15 but when Julio Jones dropped, I couldn't pass him up. Then in the 3rd round I was waiting on Carlos Hyde or Latavius Murray with my pick but both got selected right before my selection. So instead of forcing a RB pick, I just took Brandin Cooks in the 3rd round.

I had to juggle RBs throughout the season and got lucky with DeAngelo Williams and Darren McFadden. Although that elite 3 WR combo of Beckham\Jones\Cooks carried my roster.

Yeah, I mean I definitely think you can make it work. I always just let the drafts come to me for the most part. I know people like to try and script their first 3-4 picks position wise and go from there but value is always king for me.

Thing is, if I don't get him to swap with me and I stay @ 7 I think I'm almost going to have to go RB in rd 1 because otherwise I'm not maxing out my value. One of Gurley/DJ/AP will definitely be there if not 2 of them and it'd be hard to pass on them for someone like AJ or Jordy. I feel like I'd be reaching a little.

I kind of hope Hopkins just falls into my lap there and then maybe Miller or Charles drop to my next pick. Could probably get Watkins/Cobb/Landry in the 3rd as a WR2.. I think I'd be pretty happy with a core like that.

Didn't he get a 4 game suspension that was reduced to only 2 games last year?

If he did in fact skip his drug testing (which the NFL considers a positive result), highly doubt he gets the same 4 games suspension he got last year. Should be closer to a 10 game suspension or even a full 16 games.

Either way, I'm not touching him.

now?

In comment 13041655 leatherneck570 said:

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now?

Bell is a keeper in my league, I wonder if they remove the keeper designation.

our keepers aren't official until 8/1, but assuming it was 8/1 our two outs are suspension or out for the season injury.

I think DW is now a 4th/5th assuming Bell suspension is made official. To me though this moves Roethlisberger up a round. I'd love to get him.

My team so far is Beckham, Cooper and Gurley. I have a 2nd and 3rd round pick, then don't pick again until round 7.

So if I can get a guy like Lamar Miller, Cooks, someone like that in the 2nd (it's a keeper league so not sure how many 1st and 2nd round picks there will be) and then I'd consider Big Ben in the 3rd unless there is a compelling player available. which I doubt.

leatherneck570 said:

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now?

I think that all depends on the length of the suspension. If it's in the 2-4 game range last year, I think Williams will go near rounds 7-9.

If it's 8-10 games, Williams should go rounds 4-5. If Bell is done for a full season, Williams become a Top 5-7 pick overall.

Per Rotoworld.....

In the nine games he played start to finish last season, Williams led all NFL running backs in touches per game (22.9), touchdowns (11), and snaps played.

if Bell misses half the season. He still has value upon Bell's return, especially after a major knee injury.

If Bell misses 8 games, definitively before people have their drafts, he's going to go in the 2nd round in many leagues.

like 2nd and 3rd round selections on a guy whose only going to play half the season for you. I wouldn't mind the risk as much, if it was the the 4th or 5th rounds since you would already have a solid core of players from the first 3 rounds.

If Bell is suspended for a full season, all bets are off and he'll be a Top 5-7 pick overall.

In comment 13041666 UConn4523 said:

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if Bell misses half the season. He still has value upon Bell's return, especially after a major knee injury. If Bell misses 8 games, definitively before people have their drafts, he's going to go in the 2nd round in many leagues.

the rumor is 4 games (which I doubt to be true, but for now I assume it is). If it's 4 games, I don't see anyone taking Williams before the 4th/5th round.

I think we need the suspension confirmed first.

Knowing that you don't have Bell for a minimum of 4+ games this year, possibility of another violation ends his season. Plus we're not even factoring in the recovery from two torn knee ligaments and how that will effect him being inactive for over a month of the season.

Would you still select Bell with a 1st or 2nd round pick?

I would have taken Bell mid-1st rd if there was no suspension and he was on track to be a full go Week 1.. with a suspension of any sort, though.. I am probably going to just pass altogether unless he really drops and falls into my lap in a spot where I have to take him.

The last thing I want to do is spend a 1st-4th rd pick on a guy who a) is already suspended a few games off the bat and b) coming off an injury

I need to get players that I view as "sure things" barring new injuries with those picks.

In comment 13041672 NYG27 said:

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like 2nd and 3rd round selections on a guy whose only going to play half the season for you. I wouldn't mind the risk as much, if it was the the 4th or 5th rounds since you would already have a solid core of players from the first 3 rounds. If Bell is suspended for a full season, all bets are off and he'll be a Top 5-7 pick overall.

I disagree. Bell was suspended last year, not hurt, to start the season. Now he's coming back from an injury, no guarantee Pitt goes full force with him when he's eligible. This could be a split backfield, even 70/30 gives Williams a ton of value.

Add in that RB's just get injured and you start adding guys waiting in the wings all year, getting 8 awesome games from Williams can help you make the playoffs. I see a high round pick for him if it is in fact 8 games.

If its 4 games, he's still worth a 4th rounder. Too much potential.

In comment 13040454 NYG27 said:

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While it might be great to land Cam, Rodgers or Luck but why not wait till rounds 6 to 9 and pick up a guy like Eli, Cousins or Dalton on the cheap. Even a guy like Tom Brady who has a 4 game suspension might drop to the 6th or 7th rounds.

I've waited on QBs in probably all but one of the drafts I have done over the last 100 years or so. One year I took Peyton high.

Most strategies are sound unless you draft like shit and/or get socked with injuries. If you take the QB in round 1 you better get the best QB and when you draft RBs and WRs later on you better get good ones. Works the same way if you reverse the strategy. But I do like mine better --the science backs me up!

is a blessing for me. I have the 3rd pick and I think it was safe to assume that the 3 WRs and Bell were the top 4 picks. Now with Bell out of the mix, I take who is left over and not think twice.

The only curve ball is if the 2nd guy who is picking takes Gurley. Then I will have to choose between Beckham and Jones.

Are the Seahawks just being cautious with him or was there a reason why they drafted 3 RBs in the draft.

Since Christine Michael sucks, looking forward to seeing what both rookies CJ Prosise and Alex Collins can do in these preseason games.

In comment 13041761 dep026 said:

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is a blessing for me. I have the 3rd pick and I think it was safe to assume that the 3 WRs and Bell were the top 4 picks. Now with Bell out of the mix, I take who is left over and not think twice. The only curve ball is if the 2nd guy who is picking takes Gurley. Then I will have to choose between Beckham and Jones.

I go Beckham. Brown I think is my clear cut #1 WR but Beckham and Jones are 2a/b. I just can't get over how few TD's Jones has for his size. It doesn't make sense to me.

In his first three year, Jones had 174 receptions and scored 20 TDs. Which is a solid 1 TD for every 8.7 receptions. Plus factor in Tony Gonzalez played with Jones in those first 3 years and he was more so used as the Red Zone target in that offense.

Last two years, without Gonzo there, most people expected a jump on the TD rate. Jones saw a huge spike in production with 240 receptions but had just 14 TDs. Which is a very low 1 TD for every 17 receptions.

In a PPR, I think I'd take Jones over Beckham but in a standard league, I'd go with Odell.

Brotles outscored Eli in my league last year by 19 pts. Typical scoring.

The Jags were in a ton of blow outs last year and were consistently in catch-up mode and threw the ball a lot playing catch up.

This year the Jags have improved their overall defense and Chris Ivory gives them another back to team with Yates to run more ball controlled offense if they have a lead.

How will that better defense and running game effect Bortles TD passes?

is we have no idea how good he is and that means something to me. His rushing stats keep him in the convo, but I don't think anyone can confidently peg him for 35 passing TD's again. It can just as easily be 25.

Eli is a lock for 30+ TD's (outside of injury to him or Beckham). But again, the rushing stats make it closer than it should be.

In comment 13041845 NYG27 said:

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The Jags were in a ton of blow outs last year and were consistently in catch-up mode and threw the ball a lot playing catch up. This year the Jags have improved their overall defense and Chris Ivory gives them another back to team with Yates to run more ball controlled offense if they have a lead. How will that better defense and running game effect Bortles TD passes?

The improved running game will only help Bortles from an efficiency standpoint and will give him more opportunites to score by keeping drives alive early in games. He's got weapons in ARob, Hurns, and Thomas. I think people are underestimating him a little here and he'll easily toss 30+ TDs again this season. I probably won't take him at that 7.1 ADP, but that's only because I can get similar production from Eli or Palmer a round and a half later.

i think you can look at it both ways. Running the ball can shorten the game and take away from a lot of his come from behind stats where he passed a ton.

Look at Matt Ryan, for example. Finally has a run game in 2015 and posted the worst numbers of his career since his rookie season.

YAJ.. any opinion on swapping the 7th pick for the 2nd in a 12 team PPR league and taking Beckham or Jones @ 2?

Guy in my league who has 2nd pick wants to move out of that slot and I think he's about willing to swap with me.

Figure I can either go WR/WR/RB, WR/RB/WR or even WR/WR/WR and wind up with 2-3 really good WR's real early and can scoop up a couple decent PPR RB's in like rd's 4 and 5.. mentioned a few guys earlier.. Mathews, Lewis, Forte, etc.

If I went RB in rd 2 I could probably get Lacy or maybe Freeman falls to me.. rd 3 Martin will probably be there. So I could do that too.

people say Bortles benefited from blowouts, but you can pencil Eli in for....

Eli had his share of blowouts (Carolina down 35 - 0?)

New Orleans (two separate two TD deficits wiped out)

Minnesota

re-look at the Jags results, I won't pretend to have watched all those games, but doesn't look like a lot of blowout losses.

I like Bortles and I like his receiving options. I like Eli too, Palmer is the most risky of the three (only saying these three because those are the three who were mentioned) in my opinion.

Mainly due to age and injury history. Odds are he doesn't make it through the season.

I'd make that swap. I'd rather have 2, 23, 26, etc.. vs 7, 18, 31

Go with Odell and then select two great options at the 2/3 turn.

normally I wouldn't say that, but everyone and I mean everyone is now firmly off the RB bandwagon and on the WR bandwagon (something I've benefited from for years). If you can get one of Brown/Beckham/Jones I think you have a huge advantage, especially in PPRs (obviously).

At 7 you lose out on all 3 and you also lose out on the top RB's.

and target WRs.

You get an elite guy in OBJ/Jones, and then 2 from the Allen/Cooks/Marshall/Hilton/Cobb/D Thomas range.
You can grab an RB in those first 3 if someone you like falls to you. There will be a few WRs left for you at 4.11 (the AZ WRs, Decker are usually there) but the drop off at WR after the middle of the 5th round is pretty stark.

If it's a PPR with 3WR and a flex, I would be wanting to get 4 WRs in the first 5 rounds.

Here's an MFL10 I'm doing right now where I had pick 3. So far my I've picked

Julio
Cooks
Reed
Forte
Cam
C Coleman
J Stewart
Deangelo

I immediately regretted the Reed and Forte picks. I could have had D Thomas, Landry or Watkins at 3.3 or John Brown or Fitzgerald at 4.10. Marvin Jones and Devante Parker were the best WRs left when it came back to me at 5.3 so I went Cam.

I definitely should have waited on TE, Eifert, Ertz and Julius Thomas are all still on the board. I may still grab one with my next pick just for a flex option and Reed insurance.

Thanks, guys. I agree.

I am trying to get him to just swap draft slots straight up but he might want to just trade #2 for #7 and then in return I'll have to bump him up in another round or something.

I just know if I stay @ 7, AB, Beckham, Jones and Hopkins are probably all off the board for when I pick and I'd have to go RB there and I'd rather get a top tier WR. Gonna see what I can maneuver here.

Guess you got DeAngelo in the 8th round before today's news broke out?

In comment 13042097 NYG27 said:

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Guess you got DeAngelo in the 8th round before today's news broke out?

Yeah, there was 1 team that picked right before me today and I guess he didn't see the news. He was on the clock for 4 hours and the rumors were already swirling before his pick got in.