Todays FF discussion

I have the 3rd pick and rumor is Brown and Bell are going top 2. Yesterday I said that I would take a comparable player over a Giants player and I have that situation now. Beckham or Jones.

Do I stay true to my word or do I just take Beckham and go all in.

...sorry in advance....

In comment 13037754 dep026 said:

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I have the 3rd pick and rumor is Brown and Bell are going top 2. Yesterday I said that I would take a comparable player over a Giants player and I have that situation now. Beckham or Jones. Do I stay true to my word or do I just take Beckham and go all in.

Taking Beckham there would be totally justified, IMO. Assuming PPR, obviously. You really can't go wrong with he or Jones.

.

In comment 13037754 dep026 said:

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I have the 3rd pick and rumor is Brown and Bell are going top 2. Yesterday I said that I would take a comparable player over a Giants player and I have that situation now. Beckham or Jones. Do I stay true to my word or do I just take Beckham and go all in.

Beckham all day IMO.

I just heard Elliott is going #1 in my league. WTF. It's PPR, but I think this has to be unprecedented a rookie going #1 overall.

And I like Elliott, he's a top 5 back IMO right now, but #1?

Julio is a one man show in Atlanta. But OBJ....

.

Julio had 203 targets 1878 yards and 8 TD's last year.
OBJ? 158 1,450 yards and 13 TD's.

Which way do you think OBJ's targets are going to go next season?

good. Lot of blame to go around in case it doesnt work out.

If its Bell/beckham - you still go OBJ?

I'd go Bell. He's going to be touching the ball a lot more than OBJ.

I'd have to see Le'Veon a little bit and know he's going to be healthy first but if you told me he was going to be all systems go come Week 1, I would probably lean his way.

In comment 13037572 leatherneck570 said:

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AB Julio OBJ Bell Gurley/David Johnson

For standard leagues at least, AP has to be right there with Gurley (and both ahead of DJ).

RN, it looks like AP and DJ are back to back. DJ is ranked higher on Fantasy Pros but Peterson's ADP is one spot higher. It goes Gurley, AP, then DJ when it comes to RB's off the board.

I am taking AP over DJ every time.

and I won't have to make that choice but I 'd probably do the same simply do to workload. Arizona has 3 mouths to feed.

.

it's the mid round WR's I'm interested in. There's a lot of good value and some fool's gold imo. Who does everyone like in rounds 4 and up?

In comment 13038261 leatherneck570 said:

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it's the mid round WR's I'm interested in. There's a lot of good value and some fool's gold imo. Who does everyone like in rounds 4 and up?

Jarvis Landry, especially in PPR. I like Cooks to really break out this year too.

In comment 13038267 dep026 said:

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In comment 13038261 leatherneck570 said: Quote: it's the mid round WR's I'm interested in. There's a lot of good value and some fool's gold imo. Who does everyone like in rounds 4 and up? Jarvis Landry, especially in PPR. I like Cooks to really break out this year too.

I think he meant 4th round and later. Landry/Cooks are going in the top 3 rounds in a PPR.

especially where he's getting drafted. Other WR's I like:

Michael Floyd
Donte Moncrief
Crabtree
Lockett

In comment 13038267 dep026 said:

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In comment 13038261 leatherneck570 said: Quote: it's the mid round WR's I'm interested in. There's a lot of good value and some fool's gold imo. Who does everyone like in rounds 4 and up? Jarvis Landry, especially in PPR. I like Cooks to really break out this year too.

I don't think either of those two are available in the 4th or later, at least not in 12 team ppr (Landry). Maybe in 10-team leagyes.

I think some good bets there are maybe Golden Tate (borderline if he's there), John Brown, Allen Hurns, Donte Moncrief, Doug Baldwin, and then some rookies like Shepard (later than 4th, but I like him not just a homer), Coleman, Fuller, Doctson, and if you can steal Kelvin Benjamin try to, he should be gone by the 4th, but he might not be highly rated so people that go by rankings or online drafts might miss him.

In comment 13038273 YAJ2112 said:

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In comment 13038267 dep026 said: Quote: In comment 13038261 leatherneck570 said: Quote: it's the mid round WR's I'm interested in. There's a lot of good value and some fool's gold imo. Who does everyone like in rounds 4 and up? Jarvis Landry, especially in PPR. I like Cooks to really break out this year too. I think he meant 4th round and later. Landry/Cooks are going in the top 3 rounds in a PPR.

oops...... how about ryan mathews? I mean the injury risk is always a problem. But you wonder if he will be used much like Charles was in KC. Lot of catches. Lot of touches.

Michael Floyd will be the best Cardinals WR this year. Remember, contract year this year.

that are iffy imo. Detroit picked up Maurice Jones who's being called WR 1B already so we'll have to see how that plays out.

Du'oh

In comment 13038285 dep026 said:

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Michael Floyd will be the best Cardinals WR this year. Remember, contract year this year.

I like Floyd, he's a player I'll have an asterisk near at my draft meaning I'm targeting him, but I keep wanting to bury Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer won't let me.

And John Brown is the deep threat there, since Fitz moved to the slot.

and all three of them will catch passes.

is that I think he'll be good early (until he gets hurt of course), which should buy you time to find a guy or 2 on the waiver wire.

In comment 13038302 YAJ2112 said:

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is that I think he'll be good early (until he gets hurt of course), which should buy you time to find a guy or 2 on the waiver wire.

Hot start is also an opportunity to trade him to the league idiot!

What does everyone make of the Oakland backfield?

I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while.

In comment 13038311 leatherneck570 said:

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What does everyone make of the Oakland backfield?

I think Latavius Murray will be much better than last year. the addition of Osemele and Penn should help a pretty bad line. I don't love him, but he could be a nice late-early round pick up (4th/5th).

is a TE who you maybe able to pick up late as well. Should see a lot of targets in Pitt.

In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said:

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I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while.

I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick

In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said:

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I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while.

This is the way I'm leaning.

In comment 13038319 Sonic Youth said:

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In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said: Quote: I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while. I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick

In the 4th/5th round, I'm looking for someone who's better than reasonably solid or at least has the upside to be better than that.

In comment 13038318 dep026 said:

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is a TE who you maybe able to pick up late as well. Should see a lot of targets in Pitt.

Green has been going a little too high for my tastes... His ADP is right around 100, in the 10-12 range for TEs. You're counting on him as a starter at that price. I feel like he should have been more productive with SD when he had opportunities with Gates out. Not a guy I'll have on very many teams unless his price drops.

In comment 13038343 YAJ2112 said:

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In comment 13038318 dep026 said: Quote: is a TE who you maybe able to pick up late as well. Should see a lot of targets in Pitt. Green has been going a little too high for my tastes... His ADP is right around 100, in the 10-12 range for TEs. You're counting on him as a starter at that price. I feel like he should have been more productive with SD when he had opportunities with Gates out. Not a guy I'll have on very many teams unless his price drops.

Maybe a guy like Fleener then?

In comment 13038327 YAJ2112 said:

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In comment 13038319 Sonic Youth said: Quote: In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said: Quote: I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while. I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick In the 4th/5th round, I'm looking for someone who's better than reasonably solid or at least has the upside to be better than that.

In standard and PPR in 2015 Murray was the 10th or 11th rated RB (total points).

You might get someone better in the 4th/5th, but he would have been the 13th WR (standard scoring) for comparison sake.

I think that's about where he'll go and I think he'll outperform his draft position based on the OL improvement, Cooper improvements and Carr improvements.

he's around 80 in ADP though, so he's already priced up.

I'd rather go with Julius Thomas or Ertz who are being drafted just before Green in that same range right before pick 100.

In comment 13038353 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 13038327 YAJ2112 said: Quote: In comment 13038319 Sonic Youth said: Quote: In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said: Quote: I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while. I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick In the 4th/5th round, I'm looking for someone who's better than reasonably solid or at least has the upside to be better than that. In standard and PPR in 2015 Murray was the 10th or 11th rated RB (total points). You might get someone better in the 4th/5th, but he would have been the 13th WR (standard scoring) for comparison sake. I think that's about where he'll go and I think he'll outperform his draft position based on the OL improvement, Cooper improvements and Carr improvements.

The only reason he was in the top 10 in total points is that he stayed healthy all season. He averaged 10 points a game in standard and only had I think 3 games of 15+. You can stream RBs off waivers and get at least 7-8 points a week. I'd rather use a pick that early on a higher ceiling guy.

So my draft is still about a month away but I know I am picking 7th in a 12 team PPR league.

I actually think AP is going to be on the board there and would be very tempted to take him if he is. I have a feeling most of the guys are going to take WR's early.. I expect Brown and Beckham to both be gone top 3. I expect Julio to also be off the board. I think there's a shot Hopkins could fall to me. I think Bell and one of Gurley/DJ will go before me but not both.

I could also consider Gronk. I really hate taking a TE in rd 1 though. I kind of want to avoid that.

In comment 13038382 YAJ2112 said:

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In comment 13038353 pjcas18 said: Quote: In comment 13038327 YAJ2112 said: Quote: In comment 13038319 Sonic Youth said: Quote: In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said: Quote: I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while. I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick In the 4th/5th round, I'm looking for someone who's better than reasonably solid or at least has the upside to be better than that. In standard and PPR in 2015 Murray was the 10th or 11th rated RB (total points). You might get someone better in the 4th/5th, but he would have been the 13th WR (standard scoring) for comparison sake. I think that's about where he'll go and I think he'll outperform his draft position based on the OL improvement, Cooper improvements and Carr improvements. The only reason he was in the top 10 in total points is that he stayed healthy all season. He averaged 10 points a game in standard and only had I think 3 games of 15+. You can stream RBs off waivers and get at least 7-8 points a week. I'd rather use a pick that early on a higher ceiling guy.

I'm not so sure about this, but there is something to be said for consistency. and going in to the draft with a plan to stream your RB2 is not something I'd have as a goal.

Shoot for the moon in the 5th round, I'm not saying not to, but in the end Latavius Murray will probably outpoint who you pick if he's there.

And that's with thinking he had a down year last year and I expect an improvement.

Here are my RB rankings (standard scoring):
1. A/P
2. Bell (really 1 and 1a I think both will be good)
3. Gurley
4. DJ
5. Elliott
6. Charles
7. Miller
8. Martin
9. Freeman
10. Ingram
11. Forte
12. Lacy
13. McCoy
14. Hyde
15. Anderson
16. Rawls* (I could move him up)
17. L. Murray
18. Stewart
19. D. Murray
20. Mathews

not many surprises and reorder these how you want but my guess is they're pretty much a consensus top 20, and with L. Murray at 17, that probably puts his ADP in the 4th round in 12 team, 5th the latest, so not sure what you're hoping for in the 4th/5th. Unless you gamble on a Jeremy Hill, Arian Foster, or Duke Johnson (from a RB standpoint).

In comment 13039133 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 13038382 YAJ2112 said: Quote: In comment 13038353 pjcas18 said: Quote: In comment 13038327 YAJ2112 said: Quote: In comment 13038319 Sonic Youth said: Quote: In comment 13038315 YAJ2112 said: Quote: I'll likely be avoiding him. Deandre Washington is interesting but it may take a while for them to tire of Murray. In leagues with short benches, I likely won't have either and would only take a shot on Washington where I have room to hold him for a while. I had Latavius on my team in PPR last year, he was reasonably solid. I think he's poised to have a bigger year this year as well. I think he's a good mid round pick In the 4th/5th round, I'm looking for someone who's better than reasonably solid or at least has the upside to be better than that. In standard and PPR in 2015 Murray was the 10th or 11th rated RB (total points). You might get someone better in the 4th/5th, but he would have been the 13th WR (standard scoring) for comparison sake. I think that's about where he'll go and I think he'll outperform his draft position based on the OL improvement, Cooper improvements and Carr improvements. The only reason he was in the top 10 in total points is that he stayed healthy all season. He averaged 10 points a game in standard and only had I think 3 games of 15+. You can stream RBs off waivers and get at least 7-8 points a week. I'd rather use a pick that early on a higher ceiling guy. I'm not so sure about this, but there is something to be said for consistency. and going in to the draft with a plan to stream your RB2 is not something I'd have as a goal. Shoot for the moon in the 5th round, I'm not saying not to, but in the end Latavius Murray will probably outpoint who you pick if he's there. And that's with thinking he had a down year last year and I expect an improvement. Here are my RB rankings (standard scoring): 1. A/P 2. Bell (really 1 and 1a I think both will be good) 3. Gurley 4. DJ 5. Elliott 6. Charles 7. Miller 8. Martin 9. Freeman 10. Ingram 11. Forte 12. Lacy 13. McCoy 14. Hyde 15. Anderson 16. Rawls* (I could move him up) 17. L. Murray 18. Stewart 19. D. Murray 20. Mathews not many surprises and reorder these how you want but my guess is they're pretty much a consensus top 20, and with L. Murray at 17, that probably puts his ADP in the 4th round in 12 team, 5th the latest, so not sure what you're hoping for in the 4th/5th. Unless you gamble on a Jeremy Hill, Arian Foster, or Duke Johnson (from a RB standpoint).

My top 20

Le'Veon Bell
Todd Gurley
David Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Jamaal Charles
Ezekiel Elliott
Lamar Miller
Mark Ingram
LeSean McCoy
Doug Martin
Devonta Freeman
Eddie Lacy
Ryan Mathews
Thomas Rawls
Matt Jones
Latavius Murray
Jonathan Stewart
C.J. Anderson
DeMarco Murray


Not too different. Apparently you're a lot higher on Hyde than I am lol.

when he was healthy last year, which just wasn't very often.

I'm intrigued by him in Chip Kelly's system. they don't have a lot of receiving options. I can swap him for Matt Jones, but I think Hyde is a gamble worth taking (at some point).

but I'd rather take upside guys later in the draft with the knowledge that I'll be hitting the waiver wire if/when some of those guys don't pan out. And every year, I know I'll be able to find RBs on waivers that can at worst get me by for a couple of weeks and at best can perform like a mid-high draft pick if I get the right guy.

If you think Murray has more upside than he showed last year, then he's a good pick there. Personally, I think it's more likely that Washington overtakes him by year end than there is that he ends up as a top 10 RB again. Of course I could be wrong (see Justin Forsett last year) and I do play in mainly PPRs, so your mileage may vary.

Consistency can be good, but

I guess to make my earlier post simpler.. since everyone loves rankings. How would you rank these players in a PPR league?

Gurley
DJ
Hopkins
Gronk
AJ
Elliott

Sorry, that should include AP.. and I'll throw Dez in for kicks

So..

Gurley
DJ
Hopkins
Gronk
AP
AJ
Elliott
Dez

I think Murray had a very good season as a first year starter. Here are his stats split over the first 8 games and last 8 games of the Raiders season.

First 8 - 132 carries - 630 rushing - 4.77 per carry - 21 receptions - 3 TD
Last 8 - 134 - 436 - 3.25 - 20 - 3

First half of the season he was amazing an was Top 5 scoring back in most leagues. What happened in the second half, was it Murray hit a wall or was it rather the entire Raiders offense hit a wall.

Personally, I think Murray gets a bad wrap from fantasy football "experts". It just wasn't Murray struggling in the second half of the season. Just look at Derek Carr, he went from amazing 19 TD - 4 INT split first half to just 13-9 in the second. Amari Cooper went from a blazing 45-653-4 first half line to limping at the end with just 27-417-2 second half.

Point is, why is Murray being crapped on for a poor second half, while both Carr\Cooper who also struggled are supposed to be on the "upswing" from these same fantasy experts.

In my opinion, with the improvements the Raiders made to their O-Line, along with the improvements expected from Carr\Cooper should open up thing more for Murray to post similar numbers to his first half of the season where he was a top 5 scoring RB.

and probably shouldn't have been on the field.

In comment 13039238 arcarsenal said:

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Sorry, that should include AP.. and I'll throw Dez in for kicks So.. Gurley DJ Hopkins Gronk AP AJ Elliott Dez

Gurley
AP
Hopkins
DJ
AJ
Gronk
Elliot
Dez