Todays FF discussion

Point is that whole Raiders offense struggled in the second half, not just Murray. With the continued improvements of Carr/Cooper, improved O-Line and Clive Walford is also an upgrade at TE. Factor all those in, I see an up tick with Murray's production from 2015 where he already ranked as the Top 10/11 overall RB in most leagues.

I'd go:

Gurley
DJ
Hopkins
AP
AJ
Elliott
Gronk
Dez

but really any of the top 4 in my list I could shuffle. And Dez is only last because of his and Romo's injury potential.

I mentioned in my keeper league (which is sort of skewed b/c not everyone is available) the guy already said (if healthy on draft day) he's taking Elliott #1 overall.

changes everything.

Yeah, there's still so much time so who knows who will get hurt and how things will shake out in preseason..

But I am pretty sure the first 4 picks in my league will be

Brown
Beckham
Bell
Jones

Which means one of Gurley/DJ/Hopkins are going to be there when I pick. So I need to figure out if I would definitely take whichever one it is over AP/Gronk/AJ (or Elliott/Dez)

DJ still scares me because of CJ2k and Ellington. Guys like Gurley and Peterson you KNOW are getting like 90% of the carries/touches out of the backfield. I still am not sold that DJ is going to get that and if he doesn't, I don't want to take him 7th. The upside is huge though. I'm pretty torn.

Is no one else worried about his recovery from two torn ligaments? It's not just a straight torn ACL recovery that AP recovered from in 9 months and had an MVP type season. Seems like everyone is automatically penciling him in as a Top 3 RB and assuming that he returns back to his prior form.

Plus on top of that, one more drug incident and he's gone for a full year. There was rumors a few months ago that he missed or delayed a random drug test but that is just another concern to think about if you have a top 5 selection.

if I still played FF, I would probably put a few RBs ahead of him only because I would want minimal risk with a RB taken in the first half of the first round.

At this point, Bell might be 3 or 4 on my RB list

Gurley has to be the pick

In comment 13039415 jlukes said:

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Gurley has to be the pick

I like Gurley a lot, but the main thing that scares me about him is a rookie QB and a pretty awful WR group.

still I'd take him there, but it's not like he doesn't have his own questions.

I wouldn't be shocked if Elliott is the #1 RB at season's end if he gets the touches. He has the best situation at RB of anyone. Good QB, good WR group, best OL in the game and his own skills. injury to the other parts are the biggest risk with Elliott - plus touches - no clue how they ease him in as a rookie or just throw him right into the fire with 25 - 30 touches per game.

I'd probably take Gurley if he was still on the board @ 7 but the one thing with him is that he's really not that involved in the passing game. He caught less than 2 passes per game last year. That's the only thing that sticks out to me since it's a PPR league. DJ seems like he's going to be a lot more involved in the passing game but there's no question Gurley is the better runner.

I took a nice break last year and left all my leagues and it was a really good break. Although I did miss it and re-joined the GFFLL this year.

I kinda just feel like Peterson is becoming undervalued. The man was still a monster last year. He led the league in attempts, yards, TD's and YPG.

I realize he's not going to be able to produce like this forever but I think he still has a dominant year or two left in the tank and it feels like most people are putting Bell, Gurley and DJ all ahead of him. I've seen Elliott ahead of him and even Miller as well. The dude is ranked TWENTY SECOND in ESPN's Top 300 for PPR leagues. That's absurd to me.

go anywhere from #1 to #5 at RB and feel like the drafter made a solid pick based on the other RB's they take (Bell, Gurley, DJ, and Elliott - with Elliott being the biggest stretch.

I haven't seen him less than 5 in any of the mocks I've done.

in one site I check they have his best at #1 and his worst #9 with a Average around 4.

In comment 13039427 NYG27 said:

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I took a nice break last year and left all my leagues and it was a really good break. Although I did miss it and re-joined the GFFLL this year.

Yeah - was not in a single league last year. Was selling a house, buying a house, and was finishing my MBA and FF was just causing more frustration than fun.

arcarsenal said:

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I kinda just feel like Peterson is becoming undervalued. The man was still a monster last year. He led the league in attempts, yards, TD's and YPG. I realize he's not going to be able to produce like this forever but I think he still has a dominant year or two left in the tank and it feels like most people are putting Bell, Gurley and DJ all ahead of him. I've seen Elliott ahead of him and even Miller as well. The dude is ranked TWENTY SECOND in ESPN's Top 300 for PPR leagues. That's absurd to me.

I totally agree about Peterson. Vikings improved their O-Line a lot by signing Andre Smith whose looking to bounce back on a 1 year contract before hitting free agency next year. The Alex Boone signing helps two fold, as he upgrades the Vikings LG position and bounces Brandon Fusco (who struggled at LG) back to his natural RG position where he had more success.

I'm hoping the attention on all these WRs and other RBs pushed AP down to my 8th overall pick in my draft.

Gurley
David Johnson
Crowell
Vereen
Amari Cooper
Allen Robinson
Keenan Allen
Dorsett
Jordan Reed

In comment 13039449 NYG27 said:

Quote:

arcarsenal said: Quote: I kinda just feel like Peterson is becoming undervalued. The man was still a monster last year. He led the league in attempts, yards, TD's and YPG. I realize he's not going to be able to produce like this forever but I think he still has a dominant year or two left in the tank and it feels like most people are putting Bell, Gurley and DJ all ahead of him. I've seen Elliott ahead of him and even Miller as well. The dude is ranked TWENTY SECOND in ESPN's Top 300 for PPR leagues. That's absurd to me. I totally agree about Peterson. Vikings improved their O-Line a lot by signing Andre Smith whose looking to bounce back on a 1 year contract before hitting free agency next year. The Alex Boone signing helps two fold, as he upgrades the Vikings LG position and bounces Brandon Fusco (who struggled at LG) back to his natural RG position where he had more success. I'm hoping the attention on all these WRs and other RBs pushed AP down to my 8th overall pick in my draft.

They also added Treadwell who should help keep Ds a little more honest, particularly in the red zone. And Bridgewater's entering his 3rd season, so there's potential for a nice jump in performance there as well.

jlukes said:

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Gurley David Johnson Crowell Vereen Amari Cooper Allen Robinson Keenan Allen Dorsett Jordan Reed

Yup, that team won the championship last year. I'm more in a rebuilding mode with this following team....

QBs Drew Brees, Tyrod Taylor, Brock Osweiler

RBs Latavius Murry, Jeremy Langford, Jay Ajayi, DeAngelo Williams, Jerrick McKinnon, Charcandrick West, Devontae Booker, CJ Prosise and Alex Collins

WRs Kevin White, Devante Parker, Eric Decker, Travis Benjamin, Steve Smith and Jeff Janis

TEs Coby Fleener, LaDarius Green and Seth Devalve

K Josh Brown

D\ST Giants

Overall, with this leagues high QB and TE scoring, I'm in pretty good shape with Brees and Fleener\Green. I just need my young WRs White and Parker to develop on their potential or I'll have to count on Decker, Benjamin and Smith to carry me this season. Janis is my wild card if he can win the Packers #3 WR job, since the Packers #3 WR played about 70% of their offensive snaps last year.

giants#1 said:

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They also added Treadwell who should help keep Ds a little more honest, particularly in the red zone. And Bridgewater's entering his 3rd season, so there's potential for a nice jump in performance there as well.

Exactly, forgot to mention Treadwell and hopefully Stefon Diggs builds on his strong rookie season. Not to mention that this was the first time Kyle Rudolph was healthy and participated in the Vikings off-season program in several years. Bridgewater has more weapons to take off pressure from Peterson and prevent defenses from stacking the box as much as they did last year.

While it might be great to land Cam, Rodgers or Luck but why not wait till rounds 6 to 9 and pick up a guy like Eli, Cousins or Dalton on the cheap.

Even a guy like Tom Brady who has a 4 game suspension might drop to the 6th or 7th rounds.

No chance I am going QB early.

Considering targeting Brady and then trying to piggyback him him with Bortles. Bortles really flew under the radar last year, he put up some numbers.

It's not going to be as easy to wait on Eli this year, IMO.. a lot more people are going to be onto that and I think he's going to get taken a round or two sooner than usual.

It'd be nice to end up with Gronk, Reed or Olsen but I have no interest in investing a high pick on a TE.

There will be alot of bargain TEs in rounds 6-10 like Fleener, Green, Ertz or Julius Thomas.

If you even miss out on those guys, there are nice 3rd tier TEs with upside like Eric Ebron, Jordan Cameron or Jared Cook.

Even young TE like Will Tye, Jeff Heuerman, Clive Walford and Hunter Henry all have a lot of upside.

I'm loading up on RB's and WR's. MY QB will probably be my last pick, just like it was last year (Carson Palmer).

you can basically pick up whoever is playing the saints and get a great week out of him.

In comment 13040545 leatherneck570 said:

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you can basically pick up whoever is playing the saints and get a great week out of him.

You pretty much can't actually do that though unless that was hyperbole.

the Saints play:

the Panthers twice (Cam Newton is definitely going to be drafted)

Falcons twice (Ryan will more than likely be drafted, late, but he'll go)

Bucs twice (Winston will probably be drafted)

Giants, Eli will be drafted

Raiders, Carr will be drafted

Chargers, Rivers will be drafted

Chiefs, there is a good chance you can pick up Alex Smith, but they're a run-first team, doubt he does well even against the Saints

Seahawks, Wilson will be drafted

49ers, go ahead, stream Blaine Gabbert

Broncos, go ahead, stream Mark Sanchez

Rams, Goff is probably going to be drafted late in keeper leagues, but you could probably stream him and his worst receiving group in the NFL

Lions, Stafford will be drafted

Cardinals, Palmer will be drafted

So in your plan you could at-best stream Gabbert, Sanchez, and maybe Alex Smith and Jared Goff.

Better hope your WR's and RB's go off because your QB isn't helping you.

I don't advocate drafting a QB early, but the 8 - 12 round range could get you a solid starting QB in the top 10 and it makes a difference IMO.

no that was a hyperbole.

Streaming QB's is effective. In a 10 team league, is there really that much of a difference Palmer, Manning, Cousins, Carr, Dalton, Cousins etc... when picking later in the draft anyway?

been Stafford.

Between 2 leagues last year, I had 4 TE's.. Reed and Gates in one and Kelce/JThomas in another. Kelce was the guy I took "earlyish" (5th rd I think?) and I probably got the least value out of him. Julius didn't play the whole year but by the end of the season I was using him over Kelce.

Definitely waiting on TE as well and loading up on WR's/RB's first handful of rounds.

In comment 13040567 leatherneck570 said:

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Streaming QB's is effective. In a 10 team league, is there really that much of a difference Palmer, Manning, Cousins, Carr, Dalton, Cousins etc... when picking later in the draft anyway?

No, not much difference and I miss the 10-team league days, my two leagues have both expanded to 12 teams. Far less forgiving for draft day blunders, simple reaches, or worse injuries.

or a WR/RB with some breakout potential, personally.

In comment 13040474 arcarsenal said:

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No chance I am going QB early. Considering targeting Brady and then trying to piggyback him him with Bortles. Bortles really flew under the radar last year, he put up some numbers. It's not going to be as easy to wait on Eli this year, IMO.. a lot more people are going to be onto that and I think he's going to get taken a round or two sooner than usual.

I think Bortles goes higher than Eli. People love upside and Bortles was already as good as Eli last season.

In comment 13040582 giants#1 said:

Quote:

In comment 13040474 arcarsenal said: Quote: No chance I am going QB early. Considering targeting Brady and then trying to piggyback him him with Bortles. Bortles really flew under the radar last year, he put up some numbers. It's not going to be as easy to wait on Eli this year, IMO.. a lot more people are going to be onto that and I think he's going to get taken a round or two sooner than usual. I think Bortles goes higher than Eli. People love upside and Bortles was already as good as Eli last season.

I'm targeting Carr in the 8th/9th. Eli was kept in my keeper league in the 8th.

I'm certainly not suggesting to draft a QB early. But like I said 8 - 12 you can get real value.

that would give me 4 RB's and 4 WR's or some combination there of 3 and 4 before taking any other position.

I reviewed our draft results last night - we had a prep meeting for my league and round 9 players were like Davante Parker, Markus Wheaton, Roddy White, Stevie Johnson, Julius Thomas - I guarantee a QB would provide more value there than practically anyone in that round. of the 12 team the best 9th round picks were: Michael Floyd and McFadden and a QB was still better IMO.

and fumbled 8 times last year. And he may lose some passing TD's to Ivory. Just some food for thought.

I think I read somewhere that JAX wants to run the ball a little more this year.. which may or may not wind up being the case but I think I'd still take Eli over Bortles at this point (being as unbiased as I can be) now that this is his 3rd year in Ben Mac's system and he's going to have more weapons.

easy.

he's a turnover machine, and can just as easily regress as he can improve. Not betting either way on that guy.

Eli is going to have some turnovers but he's got every opportunity to duplicate his TD's from last year with room to grow. I'd virtually lock him in to 30+ TD's outside of injury to him or Beckham.

Yeah, I mean I'd be really surprised if Bortles ADP jumped ahead of Eli's at any point in the next month.

I'd love to have Bortles as my QB2 and would even be okay with him as my QB1 (though I wouldn't feel that comfortable with it) but Eli is far, far safer IMO.

In comment 13040606 arcarsenal said:

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I think I read somewhere that JAX wants to run the ball a little more this year.. which may or may not wind up being the case but I think I'd still take Eli over Bortles at this point (being as unbiased as I can be) now that this is his 3rd year in Ben Mac's system and he's going to have more weapons.

And it's Bortles 3rd year in the NFL. And Allen Robinson's 3rd season as well. Plus the 2nd (first full) season of Bortles with Julius Thomas.

A competent running game (and D) could also keep pressure off Bortles to try and make plays and thus keep the TOs down.

In comment 13040615 arcarsenal said:

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Yeah, I mean I'd be really surprised if Bortles ADP jumped ahead of Eli's at any point in the next month. I'd love to have Bortles as my QB2 and would even be okay with him as my QB1 (though I wouldn't feel that comfortable with it) but Eli is far, far safer IMO.

in NFFC leagues, Bortles ADP is 72.9 and Eli is 89.1

.

In comment 13040655 leatherneck570 said:

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.

don't forget that Bortles rushes quite a bit. He had 310 yards and 2 TDs on the ground last year.

Surprised about the ADP's re: Bortles/Eli.. I guess I was wrong.

I have 7th pick in my 12 team league. The guy with the 2nd pick really doesn't want it.. I'm tempted to try and swap with him and take Beckham. Being too much of a homer? I feel like I could get someone like Keenan Allen in rd 2 and then grab a RB with my 3rd pick.

.

We would just swap draft slots. He'd pick 7th and I'd pick 2nd. He just doesn't want the 2nd pick, I guess he feels like he could draft a better team from another slot.

In comment 13041467 arcarsenal said:

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We would just swap draft slots. He'd pick 7th and I'd pick 2nd. He just doesn't want the 2nd pick, I guess he feels like he could draft a better team from another slot.

PPR?

In comment 13041478 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

In comment 13041467 arcarsenal said: Quote: We would just swap draft slots. He'd pick 7th and I'd pick 2nd. He just doesn't want the 2nd pick, I guess he feels like he could draft a better team from another slot. PPR?

Yup

basically what you're looking at with your first three picks is:

2nd pick (2, 23, 26)

2: Beckham (or Bell, Jones, Gurley, Elliott, AP)
23: Cooks (Marshall, Lacy, Ingram, Cooper)
26: Martin, Lacy, D. Thomas, Hilton

7th pick (7, 18, 31)

7: David Johnson (AJ Green, Gurley, AP)
18: Allen (Charles, Freeman, Jeffrey)
31: Edelman (Watkins, McCoy, Cobb, Landry)

I'd take 2, 23, 26 I think.

Yeah or I could even go WR/WR/WR and have an elite corps and then target RB/RB in 4 and 5... maybe Dion Lewis/Mathews.. or maybe Forte is there.

I feel like in PPR if you can just fill your RB spots with guys who will catch a few passes a game you're good. Even a guy like Woodhead you can start regularly.

In comment 13041534 arcarsenal said:

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Yeah or I could even go WR/WR/WR and have an elite corps and then target RB/RB in 4 and 5... maybe Dion Lewis/Mathews.. or maybe Forte is there. I feel like in PPR if you can just fill your RB spots with guys who will catch a few passes a game you're good. Even a guy like Woodhead you can start regularly.

Agree. If you get Beckham, Cooks and TY Hilton at 47 you can get a Latavius Murray, Demarco Murray, Danny Woodhead (sometimes underrated in PPR) or even reach for Duke Johnson or Jeremy Langford who have upside. Even Matt Jones. Your RB1 would be weak, but you'd be stacked at WR. You could probably even get two of those backs I named so your RB1 and 2 could be Latavius Murray and Danny Woodhead. With Beckham, Cooks and Hilton, that's a solid core.

arcarsenal said:

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Yeah or I could even go WR/WR/WR and have an elite corps and then target RB/RB in 4 and 5... maybe Dion Lewis/Mathews.. or maybe Forte is there. I feel like in PPR if you can just fill your RB spots with guys who will catch a few passes a game you're good. Even a guy like Woodhead you can start regularly.

Arc, I did that last year where I took Odell at #10 and wanted CJ Anderson with my 2nd round pick at #15 but when Julio Jones dropped, I couldn't pass him up. Then in the 3rd round I was waiting on Carlos Hyde or Latavius Murray with my pick but both got selected right before my selection. So instead of forcing a RB pick, I just took Brandin Cooks in the 3rd round.

I had to juggle RBs throughout the season and got lucky with DeAngelo Williams and Darren McFadden. Although that elite 3 WR combo of Beckham\Jones\Cooks carried my roster.

Yeah, I mean I definitely think you can make it work. I always just let the drafts come to me for the most part. I know people like to try and script their first 3-4 picks position wise and go from there but value is always king for me.

Thing is, if I don't get him to swap with me and I stay @ 7 I think I'm almost going to have to go RB in rd 1 because otherwise I'm not maxing out my value. One of Gurley/DJ/AP will definitely be there if not 2 of them and it'd be hard to pass on them for someone like AJ or Jordy. I feel like I'd be reaching a little.

I kind of hope Hopkins just falls into my lap there and then maybe Miller or Charles drop to my next pick. Could probably get Watkins/Cobb/Landry in the 3rd as a WR2.. I think I'd be pretty happy with a core like that.