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Odell Beckham - Would you extend his contract before 2020?

NYG27 : 7/20/2016 3:07 pm
Currently Odell is under contract for 2 more years for roughly 2016 ($1.4 million) and 2017 ($1.8 million).

Giants then have a club option for 2018 which will be picked up. How much will that cost? Houston Texans picked up the 5th year option on WR DeAndre Hopkins for $8 million but Hopkins was the 27th player drafted in his draft class. Travon Austin draft slot was closer to Beckham's and the Rams picked up his 5th year for $12 million.

In 2019, Giants would have the option to use the Franchise Tag. Alshon Jeffery was franchised by the Bears for $14.6 million. You have to figure that price will only go up another 3-5 million over the next few years. Franchise Tag for a WR might be close to up to $19-20 million by that time.

So far, Giants control Beckham's rights for the next 4 years (with option picked up and Franchise Tag) for roughly an estimated $35 million or so overall till the end of the 2019 season.

Outside of a possible hold out by Beckham, would you extend his contract before 2020?

Not saying what I would do but you can even franchise him two years  
BlueLou : 7/20/2016 3:18 pm : link
consecutively with the 2nd year at the cost of the first + 20%.

So the Giants literally have him for 6 more years at about 55 mil, and no guarateed down payment.

On a "regular" extension he would cost way, way, way more.

The smart business move is most likely NO, and to extend Shepard if he is the goods too. Even if he's not OBJ lite...
yes  
mdc1 : 7/20/2016 3:20 pm : link
but not this year, let him prove some more. He has shown some incredible immaturity so far. Not a Jerry Rice. He is also one injury away from being nothing like most players in this league.
BlueLou  
NYG27 : 7/20/2016 3:24 pm : link
Good point about the possibility to franchise tag Beckham a 2nd time. That would pretty much lock up Odell for the next 5 years at an estimated $60 million if franchise tagged twice with no guaranteed money.

Only thing Beckham can really control in this situation is if he's willing to hold out and force the Giants to give him a huge contract. Most likely giving him the highest paid non-QB contract in the NFL.
Unless you are talking about a QB of superb merit, no way  
SGMen : 7/20/2016 3:24 pm : link
you extend someone in today's NFL.

Every player is one blow and injury away from missing a season or worse. You just don't do an extension until it is time to do so.

Now, in the 2018 off-season, if OBJ is dominating and a great locker-room guy and totally healthy, you may want to "reward" your best player. I mean, you don't want him unhappy and so forth. That I could potentially see.

Bottom line: you sign players when the players deal is up when you have a tag.

For lesser tier players, I think you see the majority of teams doing the same and waiting.
RE: yes  
BlueLou : 7/20/2016 3:24 pm : link
In comment 13039602 mdc1 said:
Quote:
but not this year, let him prove some more. He has shown some incredible immaturity so far. Not a Jerry Rice. He is also one injury away from being nothing like most players in this league.


You understand what self contradictory means? I think not.
2020 is also when the NFL CBA expires  
NYG27 : 7/20/2016 3:27 pm : link
There is sure to be a lockout by the Players Union, especially with all the power the Commissioners office currently holds.

If the salary cap increases by a good portion with the next CBA, it might be worth having Odell locked up long term before then also.
I would open up negotiations after this year (year three)....  
Milton : 7/20/2016 3:27 pm : link
...and then it's a matter of how reasonable OBJ is willing to be.
p.s.-- It doesn't matter that Tavon Austin's slot was closer to OBJ's than Hopkins, the 5th year option is based on whether you were drafted in the top 10 or 11-32. OBJ was drafted 12th overall, so he will get the lower amount (in other words, based on the same formula as Hopkins and not the formula used for Austin).
I would extend his contract during  
ron mexico : 7/20/2016 3:29 pm : link
the 5th year team option year, if not sooner

Austin was a top 10 pick  
giants#1 : 7/20/2016 3:38 pm : link
so different option year rules apply to him than Beckham. For top 10 picks the option is the average of the top 10 highest prior year salaries at WR. For all other 1st round picks, the option value is the average of the 3rd through 25th highest prior year salaries.

So Beckham will likely be closer to Hopkins even though he was drafted closer to Austin. I'd guess somewhere in the $9-10M range.

I also think you're franchise tag value is on the high side. For WRs it's currently $14.6M (Alshon Jeffery) and there are no big WR FAs in 2017, though in 2018 you'll have A Brown, Hopkins, and Allen Robinson (assuming options are picked up for Watkins, Beckham, Evans, etc). That group might push up the tag $2-3M for the 2019 offseason when Beckham is set to be a UFA. So my best guess for Beckham's salaries the next 4 years following this path:

2016: $1.4M
2017: $1.8M
2018: $9.5M
2019: $17.5M

Personally, I'd try and lock him up long term after this season (hopefully before Brown/Hopkins/Robinson get big $$) similar to the Philly deal Lane Johnson. They could then keep his low 2017 base, negotiate a relatively low cap hit/base for 2018 in place of the option, and then add 3-4 years at "market value". Beckham gets long term security Giants might save a little in the out years by extending him before the next jump in WR salaries.

That said, I doubt Beckham's side would agree to this. If Beckham puts up the season most of us expect this year (and next), he'll be (rightfully) looking to be the highest paid WR ever.
RE: 2020 is also when the NFL CBA expires  
giants#1 : 7/20/2016 3:42 pm : link
In comment 13039616 NYG27 said:
Quote:
There is sure to be a lockout by the Players Union, especially with all the power the Commissioners office currently holds.

If the salary cap increases by a good portion with the next CBA, it might be worth having Odell locked up long term before then also.


Ross Tucker had a good article about that today (see Defenderdawg's links). Basically the "issues" of the powers of the commish and franchise tag are blown way out of proportion by the media because they typically affect the high profile players (especially recently with Brady, Rice, Hardy, etc). But in reality, those are issues that impact well under 1% of the players and they are unlikely to "give" anything up elsewhere in exchange for changes to those 2 things.

And I can't blame them. If I was a player, I'd rather squeeze an extra 0.25% from the NFL revenue sharing pie than put up a stink about the commish disciplining wife beaters too harshly.
OBJ is Phenominal  
chuckydee9 : 7/20/2016 3:47 pm : link
I would see how reasonable he will be after this year and see if they can extend him.. by the time 2020 comes 24-30 mil per year for him may not be out of the question.. Currently top contracts are going for around 5 year 70 million.. I think if we can get him for 5 year mil.. you jump on it at the end of the year.. Again that the extension amount so you still get him for cheap the first 2 years.. and then the remaining 5 cost 80 instead of 45 for years..
RE: OBJ is Phenominal  
chuckydee9 : 7/20/2016 3:48 pm : link
In comment 13039646 chuckydee9 said:
Quote:
I would see how reasonable he will be after this year and see if they can extend him.. by the time 2020 comes 24-30 mil per year for him may not be out of the question.. Currently top contracts are going for around 5 year 70 million.. I think if we can get him for 5 year mil.. you jump on it at the end of the year.. Again that the extension amount so you still get him for cheap the first 2 years.. and then the remaining 5 cost 80 instead of 45 for years..


I meant 45 Mil for 2 years.. if we use the franchise tag on him twice..
RE: OBJ is Phenominal  
giants#1 : 7/20/2016 3:51 pm : link
In comment 13039646 chuckydee9 said:
Quote:
I would see how reasonable he will be after this year and see if they can extend him.. by the time 2020 comes 24-30 mil per year for him may not be out of the question.. Currently top contracts are going for around 5 year 70 million.. I think if we can get him for 5 year mil.. you jump on it at the end of the year.. Again that the extension amount so you still get him for cheap the first 2 years.. and then the remaining 5 cost 80 instead of 45 for years..


$24M isn't beyond even QB money. I think "worst case" for the Giants Beckham will be looking to surpass Von Miller which I believe is the highest non-QB deal. That said, pass rushers are typically the #2 highest paid position behind QB (WRs are 3rd).
RE: Austin was a top 10 pick  
BlueLou : 7/20/2016 4:15 pm : link
In comment 13039631 giants#1 said:
Quote:
so my best guess for Beckham's salaries the next 4 years following this path:

2016: $1.4M
2017: $1.8M
2018: $9.5M
2019: $17.5M



Add 2020 unless the new CBA then blows up the current agreement...

2020: $17.5M + 20% = $21M.

That's 5 more years for 51.2M

If you want to extend him too much before then the guaranteed $ ALONE will cost more than 51.2M... and the average per year will exceed 17 mil
...

Business wise you'd be fool to even open up negotiations before you have franchised tagged him in 2019.

Which has exactly been the Giants MO or strategy with every player not named Eli Manning.

That's business folks, stop living in Oz over the rainbow...

Yes, and you pay him a shit load of $$  
ZogZerg : 7/20/2016 4:22 pm : link
assuming he keeps things going at this pace.
RE: RE: Austin was a top 10 pick  
SGMen : 7/20/2016 4:23 pm : link
In comment 13039699 BlueLou said:
Quote:
In comment 13039631 giants#1 said:


Quote:


so my best guess for Beckham's salaries the next 4 years following this path:

2016: $1.4M
2017: $1.8M
2018: $9.5M
2019: $17.5M





Add 2020 unless the new CBA then blows up the current agreement...

2020: $17.5M + 20% = $21M.

That's 5 more years for 51.2M

If you want to extend him too much before then the guaranteed $ ALONE will cost more than 51.2M... and the average per year will exceed 17 mil
...

Business wise you'd be fool to even open up negotiations before you have franchised tagged him in 2019.

Which has exactly been the Giants MO or strategy with every player not named Eli Manning.

That's business folks, stop living in Oz over the rainbow...
Exactly, this is business. And if say worse case OBJ decided to "sit out" well he is only hurting himself in the long run beause he would not have true leverage until after 2018. I don't see OBJ being like that.
that's only true  
giants#1 : 7/20/2016 4:36 pm : link
if you toss out the 2017 season and option year salaries, but there's no reason to do that. Here's where Beckham will basically be sitting at this point next year (since his option is a virtual lock, if healthy):

2017: $1.4M ($3.3M cap hit)
2018: ~$9.5M

That's the starting point for any extension.

Now let's use Von Miller's deal as a basis for a Beckham extension and give Beckham a $45M signing bonus (cap allows that to be spread over 5 years). Next, we'll give Beckham 5 new years and make him the highest paid WR by 20% (AJ Green is currently #1 at $15M per including SB). So that's $18M per season for Beckham in "new" money or a 5 yr/$90M extension. Combine that with the 2018 option value above and in reality you would be looking at a deal around 6 yrs/$100M with possible cap breakdowns like:

2017: $3.3M + $9M signing bonus = $12.3M cap hit
2018: $9.5M + $9M SB = $18.5M
2019: $5M + $9M SB = $14M
2020: $5M + $9M SB = $14M
2021: $5M + $9M SB = $14M
2022: $15M
2023: $15M

One reason the Giants would want to extend him before the 2017 season is that his cheap 2017 base salary makes it easier to absorb a big signing bonus (or roster bonus) without a crippling cap hit. Also keeps the other cap hits more reasonable.

And if Beckham wants to beat CJ's WR record setting deal (6 yrs/$114M), you can add $4M to his 2019-2023 seasons without killing your cap and bring the total value of new money to 6 yrs/$120M.
This ain't Madden  
Go Terps : 7/20/2016 4:56 pm : link
It's not just a math exercise. If he puts up another big year you can bet that he and his agent will start to grumble for that new deal. If he doesn't get it what type of player well he be then? Will he play better angry? Will he make more business decisions?

Regardless of how long the Giants could potentially keep him on his current deal, Beckham's contract should still be a front burner issue.

Why would we play hard ball  
est1986 : 7/20/2016 4:57 pm : link
With the brightest star in the entire NFL?
RE: Why would we play hard ball  
SGMen : 7/20/2016 5:23 pm : link
In comment 13039780 est1986 said:
Quote:
With the brightest star in the entire NFL?
You don't. You just "franchise tag" OBJ when the time comes and work out a deal. That simple.

One thing I do worry about is that will OBJ want to re-sign with the Giants if we don't have a viable QB? By 2019, Eli will be on the downside of his career with what maybe a year or two left in him? Just a thought.....
You don't pay full value  
Csonka : 7/20/2016 5:27 pm : link
If you're giving up the cheap years and taking on the risk of injury or reduced performance, OBJ has to give up a little money to lock in his security. That's business.

He'd have to come to ownership and give us a discount to lock in that contract. Or roll the dice if he wants to go for full value. It's his life.
.  
Go Terps : 7/20/2016 5:46 pm : link
I believe the Giants would be smart to move on this sooner than later. I don't see going to the end of his rookie deal as the optimal scenario.

If he has a big year this year I'd either pay him or trade him in the off-season. Ideally you pay him of course.
There are multiple hold outs  
Old Dirty Beckham : 7/20/2016 5:55 pm : link
in Beckhams future.
The Giants pretty much don't have a choice  
dpinzow : 7/20/2016 7:01 pm : link
unless Beckham suffers a catastrophic injury or displays the behavior we saw in the Carolina game on a weekly basis
To add to that  
dpinzow : 7/20/2016 7:03 pm : link
you can't be seen stiffing your best skill position player and one of the few true game-breakers in the NFL. Other free agents would balk at how the Giants did business
You have to at least look  
mrvax : 7/20/2016 8:18 pm : link
into an extension after this year. Maybe Beckham will work a deal that will jack up his meager pay for the next 2 years in return for a "decent" long term contract. At least the Giants have to look into it.

Having Odell settled goes a long way to figure out what the team can offer other players. Player retention will be even harder after 2016 or 2017 when they win another Super Bowl.
RE: To add to that  
BlueLou : 7/20/2016 9:03 pm : link
In comment 13039868 dpinzow said:
Quote:
you can't be seen stiffing your best skill position player and one of the few true game-breakers in the NFL. Other free agents would balk at how the Giants did business


The main thing most NFL players care about is how much a team is willing to pay them. They don't give a rat's ass how much you paid your own players.

Did snacks or OV worry about why the Giants didn't pay Joseph or JPP?

Ridiculous.
RE: This ain't Madden  
Gussi41 : 7/20/2016 9:06 pm : link
In comment 13039775 Go Terps said:
Quote:
It's not just a math exercise. If he puts up another big year you can bet that he and his agent will start to grumble for that new deal. If he doesn't get it what type of player well he be then? Will he play better angry? Will he make more business decisions?

Regardless of how long the Giants could potentially keep him on his current deal, Beckham's contract should still be a front burner issue.


Jesus Christ.. Thank you.. You sign this dude the first chance you get..
Who is going to be  
Doomster : 7/20/2016 9:55 pm : link
throwing the ball to him after the 2nd franchise tag?
Sorry,  
Doomster : 7/20/2016 9:58 pm : link
should have been the 1st franchise tag....
Giants  
Dragon : 7/20/2016 10:15 pm : link
Would in most cases do the same as Eli when the time comes year four or five then the biggest contract for his position would get done. Should this player continue at his current pace the contract numbers might shake the NFL's position scale to shreds. OBJ could be the highest paid player in the NFL and he could be worth every penny.
You give him  
English Alaister : 7/21/2016 5:40 am : link
6 yrs $100m this off-season. Same way Texans did with JJ Watt. When you have a superstar you pay them and pay them early. End of.
Wait  
JohnVB : 7/21/2016 9:57 am : link
I don't see how any Giants fan would think otherwise considering the Giants track record with WR's over the last 8 years:

-- Plax gets an extension and shoots himself in 08, effectively ending his career.

-- Steve Smith enters negotiations with the Giants after a Pro-Bowl year, Giants dodge a bullet when Smith blows his knee out before the parties agree on a deal.

-- Nicks career cut short due to injuries

-- Cruz agrees to deal with Giants and then blows out his knee.

OBJ is a sensational player but the Giants have the leverage here and need to use it until the time comes. The Giants have been burned too many times on WRs.
The last three first round picks that came to the question of extend  
BlueLou : 7/21/2016 11:48 am : link
or not, two the Giants clearly want(ed) to extend, one not...

In all cases (JPP, Prince, Pugh) the Giants picked up the 5th year option first of all with not much talk of extensions (publicly anyway) getting done.

JPP was franchised tagged and an extension was not worked out prior to his accident. Giants had no interest in keeping Prince, let him walk. Pugh's 5th year option was picked up through 2017, but there hasn't yet been any public news about extending him, from either party.

I simply don't see them doing anything early. But admittedly his play on the field and marketability off it are in another stratosphere.
Your last point, is why I feel the Giants have to do  
Gussi41 : 7/21/2016 11:52 am : link
something different..

Quote:
But admittedly his play on the field and marketability off it are in another stratosphere.

RE: You give him  
Go Terps : 7/21/2016 12:01 pm : link
In comment 13040075 English Alaister said:
Quote:
6 yrs $100m this off-season. Same way Texans did with JJ Watt. When you have a superstar you pay them and pay them early. End of.


I completely agree. When you get a player of this enormous quality he is worth it.

I'll add though that if there is some sort of unforeseen problem with the negotiations then trading him before a contentious situation degrades his trade value must be a consideration.

Best case scenario he's a Giant for life and goes down as one of the best players in the history of the team. Absolute worst case should be we get enough draft picks for him to basically lay the foundation for the post-Eli era.
Looking at the Giants options  
NYG27 : 7/21/2016 12:05 pm : link
Picking up the 5th year option and using the Franchise Tag twice, the Giants will pay Beckham.....

5 years $51.2 million (none of it guaranteed)

or

If the Giants go the route of the Texans contract they gave JJ Watt, which a contract that might make him the highest paid non-QB in NFL history, the Giants might have to pay Beckham.....

6 years $100 million, with $52 million guaranteed
Terps what you suggest is IMO an unlikely hypothesis.  
BlueLou : 7/21/2016 12:46 pm : link
Re "before negotiations get contentious and downgrade his value."

Because any team that will trade for him will demand speaking with him and his agent to arrange their own long term signing. Just the only way any deal will get done. So if his agent isn't "playing ball" with whoever wants to lock him up, it will invariably create a stumbling block.

It is unavoidable.
What I actually think will happen is pretty much what Dragon  
BlueLou : 7/21/2016 12:55 pm : link
suggested. He will be offered an enormous contract by the Giants, a historical one, if his play continues and improves as I suspect it will. And of course if he remains healthy.

But I certainly don't see it happening before sometime during his option 5th year that the Giants will of course exercise.

Salary wise he gets Manning treatment, but it's not going to come soon. I'm not even sure if that will be dictated by the Giants side or OBJs own side...
RE: You don't pay full value  
giants#1 : 7/21/2016 12:56 pm : link
In comment 13039812 Csonka said:
Quote:
If you're giving up the cheap years and taking on the risk of injury or reduced performance, OBJ has to give up a little money to lock in his security. That's business.

He'd have to come to ownership and give us a discount to lock in that contract. Or roll the dice if he wants to go for full value. It's his life.


If Beckham continues developing into the player many of us expect, then anything short of $20M per year probably is a discount.
RE: Looking at the Giants options  
giants#1 : 7/21/2016 1:05 pm : link
In comment 13040461 NYG27 said:
Quote:
Picking up the 5th year option and using the Franchise Tag twice, the Giants will pay Beckham.....

5 years $51.2 million (none of it guaranteed)

or

If the Giants go the route of the Texans contract they gave JJ Watt, which a contract that might make him the highest paid non-QB in NFL history, the Giants might have to pay Beckham.....

6 years $100 million, with $52 million guaranteed


That's bad math/assumptions.

1) Your 5 yr $51M deal is including the 2016 season which is misleading. If you want to include it in that deal, then the other option is really a 7 year $101.5M deal.

2) The option year is guaranteed for injury the second he signs it and (I think) fully guaranteed once the 2018 season begins.

3) franchise tags are fully guaranteed once signed and typically have much larger cap hits than a comparable contract. A series of 1-yr deals is also harder to plan around from a cap perspective.

RE: What I actually think will happen is pretty much what Dragon  
giants#1 : 7/21/2016 1:09 pm : link
In comment 13040537 BlueLou said:
Quote:
suggested. He will be offered an enormous contract by the Giants, a historical one, if his play continues and improves as I suspect it will. And of course if he remains healthy.

But I certainly don't see it happening before sometime during his option 5th year that the Giants will of course exercise.

Salary wise he gets Manning treatment, but it's not going to come soon. I'm not even sure if that will be dictated by the Giants side or OBJs own side...


I think what will happen is:

1. Giants offer to make him the highest paid WR ever.
2. Beckham's side counters to be the highest paid non-QB ever.
3. We see who blinks first.

I also don't expect anything to happen until Brown, Hopkins, and Robinson are signed long term (or at least tagged). Although Brown may not get a huge deal (length wise) since I believe he'll be 30 by then. In any event, those 3 will likely boost the WR tag number even higher than last years group (Dez, Green, Thomas, etc).
also interesting  
giants#1 : 7/21/2016 1:10 pm : link
is that Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack (damn that class is stacked!) will potentially pushing the salary envelope even further for top paid defensive players at the same time.
RE: also interesting  
BlueLou : 7/21/2016 2:21 pm : link
In comment 13040564 giants#1 said:
Quote:
is that Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack (damn that class is stacked!) will potentially pushing the salary envelope even further for top paid defensive players at the same time.


Nice job covering many relevant factors. You left out one other factor that might be as crucial as any. How good will Sterling Shepard be by his 3rd year (OBJ's option year that the Giants will surely take) and what type of money it might take to extend him to a long term deal. And what kind of guys will both turn out to be off the field as well as in the locker room. You could even throw Davis in there if he surprises, or one of the UDFA WRs from this year if they surprise. Nicks' injuries made the point moot, but back when before it was clear Nicks was done the Giants pursued Cruz over him.
I don't think the Giants pursued Cruz over Nicks  
giants#1 : 7/21/2016 2:26 pm : link
I think they played hardball with Cruz knowing Nicks was the preferred #1 and that Nicks would've received an even bigger extension than Cruz had he remained healthy.
RE: I don't think the Giants pursued Cruz over Nicks  
BlueLou : 7/21/2016 2:43 pm : link
In comment 13040706 giants#1 said:
Quote:
I think they played hardball with Cruz knowing Nicks was the preferred #1 and that Nicks would've received an even bigger extension than Cruz had he remained healthy.


Well you aren't really denying they pursued and tied up Cruz first, are you? BTW there were off the field issues with Nicks that got reported at one point and then disappeared. Work ethic issues I believe. Which doesn't seem to be an issue at all with OBJ.
They locked Cruz up first  
giants#1 : 7/21/2016 2:51 pm : link
because he was a FA first. I don't recall any work ethic reports about Nicks, but that may have been the case. And IIRC, when they were discussing an extension for Cruz, there were also reports that they viewed him more as 1B than 1A and that Nicks would ultimately get more. Granted that was contingent on Nicks staying healthy.
OBJ re-signing with us  
SGMen : 7/21/2016 2:58 pm : link
The Giants will likely end up tagging him and working out a deal when this deal is up. That is just how it is in today's NFL.

OBJ is the "face of the Giants" along with Eli. A personna, a charismastic guy who just need to mature a little (see CB J. Norman...duh).

However, does OBJ re-sign with the Giants if we have no #1 QB? Eli is 35 after all? That is the only question I have potentially. If Eli stays healthy and Nassib never gets a chance to show his ability we don't know what we have as a potential future QB. Nassib is in year #3 and will be gone after next season, at least likely, if he can't play.

OBJ will be the league's highest paid wideout at some point. That much I'm pretty sure of.
Eli is signed through 2019  
giants#1 : 7/21/2016 3:01 pm : link
so if Beckham doesn't want to play under the franchise tag, then he'll sign an extension with the Giants before Eli is gone. And most players hate the tag.

RE: Eli is signed through 2019  
SGMen : 7/21/2016 3:27 pm : link
In comment 13040758 giants#1 said:
Quote:
so if Beckham doesn't want to play under the franchise tag, then he'll sign an extension with the Giants before Eli is gone. And most players hate the tag.
Yes, players hate the tag but I see us tagging OBJ but working out a deal during the "tag time" so long as OBJ wants to stay in NY.

My only "fear" with OBJ is if Eli is gone after 2019 (retires or age shows) will he want to stay with a developing team? A team that is likely looking for a QB of the future? Nassib will be gone after next season.

I think OBJ loves NY and the spotlight. If we win a SB and OBJ is the main reason he gets Von Miller money. That simple.
lucky for us  
giants#1 : 7/21/2016 3:29 pm : link
if they work out an extension during the "tag time", then that would be the 2019 offseason. So Eli will still (presumably) be on the team.
RE: lucky for us  
SGMen : 7/21/2016 3:36 pm : link
In comment 13040813 giants#1 said:
Quote:
if they work out an extension during the "tag time", then that would be the 2019 offseason. So Eli will still (presumably) be on the team.
Yes, but for what maybe one season? And how effective will Eli be at 39 or so? Will he even want to play beyond his current contract? And if he does play beyond this contract not only how effective will he be but for how long?

Favre had a great year for MN at an advanced age and then completely flopped by the next year. The body can only take so much. Even Peyton Manning last year, he wasnt the guy from year's past and now has retired.

Would OBJ sign long term with us if he felt we'd be looking for a QB? It is just a question to ponder. You can tag a guy for 2 years I believe but I don't see that happening with OBJ. Or would the Giants trade him if that was his request and hardball play was going on? Again, these are just questions to ponder.

Reality is OBJ is the face of the Giants; he sells; he is NYC personna; and will stay a Giant for his career.
The Giants  
JohnVB : 7/21/2016 9:46 pm : link
have absorbed a 15.5 mil cap hit over the past two seasons on the Cruz deal with essentially zero ROI. I don't see the Giants handing out a mega deal to OBJ until they have to.
RE: The Giants  
SGMen : 7/21/2016 10:14 pm : link
In comment 13041141 JohnVB said:
Quote:
have absorbed a 15.5 mil cap hit over the past two seasons on the Cruz deal with essentially zero ROI. I don't see the Giants handing out a mega deal to OBJ until they have to.
Perfect example of why you don't overpay a contract early.

No way Cruz is a Giant with his cap number next year even if he has a "good year" (70-800-6 say...#2/3wideout). He'd have to have a 100-1300-10 type year to have a shot at keeping next year's contract #'s. That just ain't happening.

We have a lot of UFA's after the season so we will likely be making cap space where we can for guys we want to keep and build around, like DT Hankins.
I don't know what #s it would take but if Cruz stays healthy  
BlueLou : 7/22/2016 8:22 am : link
this season he might be playing much better by the end of the season and the Giants won't mess with his contract.

That would be a good "problem" to have.
Giants currently have 54 players  
giants#1 : 7/22/2016 8:38 am : link
signed for 2017 and that's excluding some restricted FAs like Tye/LaCosse/Jackson/etc that they may want to retain. The only 'big' FAs are JPP and Hankins (no pun intended). Unless you consider Nassib, Jerry, Newhouse, and the stopgap LBs (Brinkley, Robinson, Sheppard) as key FAs.

And they should be in relatively good cap shape with >$30M (including carryover).

Personally, I don't think they re-sign JPP and Hankins. I think it's one or the other. Extending both would allocate a pretty disproportionate sum to the DL. Which one they re-sign probably depends on the health of JPP/Hankins and the development of Owa and Bromley.

re: Cruz  
giants#1 : 7/22/2016 8:48 am : link
his cap #s are a little higher than you'd like going forward ($9.4M in 2017 and $8.5M in 2018), but if he puts up the #s you posit (70-800-6) and is healthy, it's hard to replace that production from his savings alone. At best a FA replacement would save $1-2M each of those seasons, so unless Shepard plus another young WR shows the potential to be a #2/#3 WR, I doubt Cruz is going anywhere (assuming a good, healthy season).

Also keep in mind that WR is typically a high value position and the Giants other main WRs (Beckham/Shepard) will be making very little in 2017 (though 2018 is another story for Beckham). Dwayne Harris is projected to be their 2nd highest paid WR in 2017 at $3.8M (cap hit), so the Giants would have <$20M (~12% of the cap) committed to their entire WR core, which would be among the best in the game if Cruz puts up those #s. For comparison sake, Dez alone will have a $17M cap hit in 2017.
Another Point  
JohnVB : 7/22/2016 9:55 am : link
The Giants just handed out 3 big contracts to Jenkins, Vernon, and Harrison. I think it would make sense to eat into those deals for a few years before giving a mega deal to OBJ since the Giants tend to structure deals with lower cap hits towards the end.
RE: re: Cruz  
SGMen : 7/22/2016 5:27 pm : link
In comment 13041295 giants#1 said:
Quote:
his cap #s are a little higher than you'd like going forward ($9.4M in 2017 and $8.5M in 2018), but if he puts up the #s you posit (70-800-6) and is healthy, it's hard to replace that production from his savings alone. At best a FA replacement would save $1-2M each of those seasons, so unless Shepard plus another young WR shows the potential to be a #2/#3 WR, I doubt Cruz is going anywhere (assuming a good, healthy season).

Also keep in mind that WR is typically a high value position and the Giants other main WRs (Beckham/Shepard) will be making very little in 2017 (though 2018 is another story for Beckham). Dwayne Harris is projected to be their 2nd highest paid WR in 2017 at $3.8M (cap hit), so the Giants would have <$20M (~12% of the cap) committed to their entire WR core, which would be among the best in the game if Cruz puts up those #s. For comparison sake, Dez alone will have a $17M cap hit in 2017.
Unless Cruz puts up "near probowl" type numbers he ain't seeing 2017's salary. He will likely be asked to take a pay cut, restructure. We have a lot of free agents after this season but we also have the ability to create cap space with cuts and restructures (Cruz, Cromartie).
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