Currently Odell is under contract for 2 more years for roughly 2016 ($1.4 million) and 2017 ($1.8 million).
Giants then have a club option for 2018 which will be picked up. How much will that cost? Houston Texans picked up the 5th year option on WR DeAndre Hopkins for $8 million but Hopkins was the 27th player drafted in his draft class. Travon Austin draft slot was closer to Beckham's and the Rams picked up his 5th year for $12 million.
In 2019, Giants would have the option to use the Franchise Tag. Alshon Jeffery was franchised by the Bears for $14.6 million. You have to figure that price will only go up another 3-5 million over the next few years. Franchise Tag for a WR might be close to up to $19-20 million by that time.
So far, Giants control Beckham's rights for the next 4 years (with option picked up and Franchise Tag) for roughly an estimated $35 million or so overall till the end of the 2019 season.
Outside of a possible hold out by Beckham, would you extend his contract before 2020?
So the Giants literally have him for 6 more years at about 55 mil, and no guarateed down payment.
On a "regular" extension he would cost way, way, way more.
The smart business move is most likely NO, and to extend Shepard if he is the goods too. Even if he's not OBJ lite...
Only thing Beckham can really control in this situation is if he's willing to hold out and force the Giants to give him a huge contract. Most likely giving him the highest paid non-QB contract in the NFL.
Every player is one blow and injury away from missing a season or worse. You just don't do an extension until it is time to do so.
Now, in the 2018 off-season, if OBJ is dominating and a great locker-room guy and totally healthy, you may want to "reward" your best player. I mean, you don't want him unhappy and so forth. That I could potentially see.
Bottom line: you sign players when the players deal is up when you have a tag.
For lesser tier players, I think you see the majority of teams doing the same and waiting.
You understand what self contradictory means? I think not.
If the salary cap increases by a good portion with the next CBA, it might be worth having Odell locked up long term before then also.
p.s.-- It doesn't matter that Tavon Austin's slot was closer to OBJ's than Hopkins, the 5th year option is based on whether you were drafted in the top 10 or 11-32. OBJ was drafted 12th overall, so he will get the lower amount (in other words, based on the same formula as Hopkins and not the formula used for Austin).
So Beckham will likely be closer to Hopkins even though he was drafted closer to Austin. I'd guess somewhere in the $9-10M range.
I also think you're franchise tag value is on the high side. For WRs it's currently $14.6M (Alshon Jeffery) and there are no big WR FAs in 2017, though in 2018 you'll have A Brown, Hopkins, and Allen Robinson (assuming options are picked up for Watkins, Beckham, Evans, etc). That group might push up the tag $2-3M for the 2019 offseason when Beckham is set to be a UFA. So my best guess for Beckham's salaries the next 4 years following this path:
2016: $1.4M
2017: $1.8M
2018: $9.5M
2019: $17.5M
Personally, I'd try and lock him up long term after this season (hopefully before Brown/Hopkins/Robinson get big $$) similar to the Philly deal Lane Johnson. They could then keep his low 2017 base, negotiate a relatively low cap hit/base for 2018 in place of the option, and then add 3-4 years at "market value". Beckham gets long term security Giants might save a little in the out years by extending him before the next jump in WR salaries.
That said, I doubt Beckham's side would agree to this. If Beckham puts up the season most of us expect this year (and next), he'll be (rightfully) looking to be the highest paid WR ever.
If the salary cap increases by a good portion with the next CBA, it might be worth having Odell locked up long term before then also.
Ross Tucker had a good article about that today (see Defenderdawg's links). Basically the "issues" of the powers of the commish and franchise tag are blown way out of proportion by the media because they typically affect the high profile players (especially recently with Brady, Rice, Hardy, etc). But in reality, those are issues that impact well under 1% of the players and they are unlikely to "give" anything up elsewhere in exchange for changes to those 2 things.
And I can't blame them. If I was a player, I'd rather squeeze an extra 0.25% from the NFL revenue sharing pie than put up a stink about the commish disciplining wife beaters too harshly.
I meant 45 Mil for 2 years.. if we use the franchise tag on him twice..
$24M isn't beyond even QB money. I think "worst case" for the Giants Beckham will be looking to surpass Von Miller which I believe is the highest non-QB deal. That said, pass rushers are typically the #2 highest paid position behind QB (WRs are 3rd).
2016: $1.4M
2017: $1.8M
2018: $9.5M
2019: $17.5M
Add 2020 unless the new CBA then blows up the current agreement...
2020: $17.5M + 20% = $21M.
That's 5 more years for 51.2M
If you want to extend him too much before then the guaranteed $ ALONE will cost more than 51.2M... and the average per year will exceed 17 mil
...
Business wise you'd be fool to even open up negotiations before you have franchised tagged him in 2019.
Which has exactly been the Giants MO or strategy with every player not named Eli Manning.
That's business folks, stop living in Oz over the rainbow...
Quote:
so my best guess for Beckham's salaries the next 4 years following this path:
2016: $1.4M
2017: $1.8M
2018: $9.5M
2019: $17.5M
Add 2020 unless the new CBA then blows up the current agreement...
2020: $17.5M + 20% = $21M.
That's 5 more years for 51.2M
If you want to extend him too much before then the guaranteed $ ALONE will cost more than 51.2M... and the average per year will exceed 17 mil
...
Business wise you'd be fool to even open up negotiations before you have franchised tagged him in 2019.
Which has exactly been the Giants MO or strategy with every player not named Eli Manning.
That's business folks, stop living in Oz over the rainbow...
2017: $1.4M ($3.3M cap hit)
2018: ~$9.5M
That's the starting point for any extension.
Now let's use Von Miller's deal as a basis for a Beckham extension and give Beckham a $45M signing bonus (cap allows that to be spread over 5 years). Next, we'll give Beckham 5 new years and make him the highest paid WR by 20% (AJ Green is currently #1 at $15M per including SB). So that's $18M per season for Beckham in "new" money or a 5 yr/$90M extension. Combine that with the 2018 option value above and in reality you would be looking at a deal around 6 yrs/$100M with possible cap breakdowns like:
2017: $3.3M + $9M signing bonus = $12.3M cap hit
2018: $9.5M + $9M SB = $18.5M
2019: $5M + $9M SB = $14M
2020: $5M + $9M SB = $14M
2021: $5M + $9M SB = $14M
2022: $15M
2023: $15M
One reason the Giants would want to extend him before the 2017 season is that his cheap 2017 base salary makes it easier to absorb a big signing bonus (or roster bonus) without a crippling cap hit. Also keeps the other cap hits more reasonable.
And if Beckham wants to beat CJ's WR record setting deal (6 yrs/$114M), you can add $4M to his 2019-2023 seasons without killing your cap and bring the total value of new money to 6 yrs/$120M.
Regardless of how long the Giants could potentially keep him on his current deal, Beckham's contract should still be a front burner issue.
One thing I do worry about is that will OBJ want to re-sign with the Giants if we don't have a viable QB? By 2019, Eli will be on the downside of his career with what maybe a year or two left in him? Just a thought.....
He'd have to come to ownership and give us a discount to lock in that contract. Or roll the dice if he wants to go for full value. It's his life.
If he has a big year this year I'd either pay him or trade him in the off-season. Ideally you pay him of course.
Having Odell settled goes a long way to figure out what the team can offer other players. Player retention will be even harder after 2016 or 2017 when they win another Super Bowl.
The main thing most NFL players care about is how much a team is willing to pay them. They don't give a rat's ass how much you paid your own players.
Did snacks or OV worry about why the Giants didn't pay Joseph or JPP?
Ridiculous.
Regardless of how long the Giants could potentially keep him on his current deal, Beckham's contract should still be a front burner issue.
Jesus Christ.. Thank you.. You sign this dude the first chance you get..
-- Plax gets an extension and shoots himself in 08, effectively ending his career.
-- Steve Smith enters negotiations with the Giants after a Pro-Bowl year, Giants dodge a bullet when Smith blows his knee out before the parties agree on a deal.
-- Nicks career cut short due to injuries
-- Cruz agrees to deal with Giants and then blows out his knee.
OBJ is a sensational player but the Giants have the leverage here and need to use it until the time comes. The Giants have been burned too many times on WRs.
In all cases (JPP, Prince, Pugh) the Giants picked up the 5th year option first of all with not much talk of extensions (publicly anyway) getting done.
JPP was franchised tagged and an extension was not worked out prior to his accident. Giants had no interest in keeping Prince, let him walk. Pugh's 5th year option was picked up through 2017, but there hasn't yet been any public news about extending him, from either party.
I simply don't see them doing anything early. But admittedly his play on the field and marketability off it are in another stratosphere.
I completely agree. When you get a player of this enormous quality he is worth it.
I'll add though that if there is some sort of unforeseen problem with the negotiations then trading him before a contentious situation degrades his trade value must be a consideration.
Best case scenario he's a Giant for life and goes down as one of the best players in the history of the team. Absolute worst case should be we get enough draft picks for him to basically lay the foundation for the post-Eli era.
5 years $51.2 million (none of it guaranteed)
or
If the Giants go the route of the Texans contract they gave JJ Watt, which a contract that might make him the highest paid non-QB in NFL history, the Giants might have to pay Beckham.....
6 years $100 million, with $52 million guaranteed
Because any team that will trade for him will demand speaking with him and his agent to arrange their own long term signing. Just the only way any deal will get done. So if his agent isn't "playing ball" with whoever wants to lock him up, it will invariably create a stumbling block.
It is unavoidable.
But I certainly don't see it happening before sometime during his option 5th year that the Giants will of course exercise.
Salary wise he gets Manning treatment, but it's not going to come soon. I'm not even sure if that will be dictated by the Giants side or OBJs own side...
He'd have to come to ownership and give us a discount to lock in that contract. Or roll the dice if he wants to go for full value. It's his life.
If Beckham continues developing into the player many of us expect, then anything short of $20M per year probably is a discount.
5 years $51.2 million (none of it guaranteed)
or
If the Giants go the route of the Texans contract they gave JJ Watt, which a contract that might make him the highest paid non-QB in NFL history, the Giants might have to pay Beckham.....
6 years $100 million, with $52 million guaranteed
That's bad math/assumptions.
1) Your 5 yr $51M deal is including the 2016 season which is misleading. If you want to include it in that deal, then the other option is really a 7 year $101.5M deal.
2) The option year is guaranteed for injury the second he signs it and (I think) fully guaranteed once the 2018 season begins.
3) franchise tags are fully guaranteed once signed and typically have much larger cap hits than a comparable contract. A series of 1-yr deals is also harder to plan around from a cap perspective.
But I certainly don't see it happening before sometime during his option 5th year that the Giants will of course exercise.
Salary wise he gets Manning treatment, but it's not going to come soon. I'm not even sure if that will be dictated by the Giants side or OBJs own side...
I think what will happen is:
1. Giants offer to make him the highest paid WR ever.
2. Beckham's side counters to be the highest paid non-QB ever.
3. We see who blinks first.
I also don't expect anything to happen until Brown, Hopkins, and Robinson are signed long term (or at least tagged). Although Brown may not get a huge deal (length wise) since I believe he'll be 30 by then. In any event, those 3 will likely boost the WR tag number even higher than last years group (Dez, Green, Thomas, etc).
Nice job covering many relevant factors. You left out one other factor that might be as crucial as any. How good will Sterling Shepard be by his 3rd year (OBJ's option year that the Giants will surely take) and what type of money it might take to extend him to a long term deal. And what kind of guys will both turn out to be off the field as well as in the locker room. You could even throw Davis in there if he surprises, or one of the UDFA WRs from this year if they surprise. Nicks' injuries made the point moot, but back when before it was clear Nicks was done the Giants pursued Cruz over him.
Well you aren't really denying they pursued and tied up Cruz first, are you? BTW there were off the field issues with Nicks that got reported at one point and then disappeared. Work ethic issues I believe. Which doesn't seem to be an issue at all with OBJ.
OBJ is the "face of the Giants" along with Eli. A personna, a charismastic guy who just need to mature a little (see CB J. Norman...duh).
However, does OBJ re-sign with the Giants if we have no #1 QB? Eli is 35 after all? That is the only question I have potentially. If Eli stays healthy and Nassib never gets a chance to show his ability we don't know what we have as a potential future QB. Nassib is in year #3 and will be gone after next season, at least likely, if he can't play.
OBJ will be the league's highest paid wideout at some point. That much I'm pretty sure of.
My only "fear" with OBJ is if Eli is gone after 2019 (retires or age shows) will he want to stay with a developing team? A team that is likely looking for a QB of the future? Nassib will be gone after next season.
I think OBJ loves NY and the spotlight. If we win a SB and OBJ is the main reason he gets Von Miller money. That simple.
Favre had a great year for MN at an advanced age and then completely flopped by the next year. The body can only take so much. Even Peyton Manning last year, he wasnt the guy from year's past and now has retired.
Would OBJ sign long term with us if he felt we'd be looking for a QB? It is just a question to ponder. You can tag a guy for 2 years I believe but I don't see that happening with OBJ. Or would the Giants trade him if that was his request and hardball play was going on? Again, these are just questions to ponder.
Reality is OBJ is the face of the Giants; he sells; he is NYC personna; and will stay a Giant for his career.
No way Cruz is a Giant with his cap number next year even if he has a "good year" (70-800-6 say...#2/3wideout). He'd have to have a 100-1300-10 type year to have a shot at keeping next year's contract #'s. That just ain't happening.
We have a lot of UFA's after the season so we will likely be making cap space where we can for guys we want to keep and build around, like DT Hankins.
That would be a good "problem" to have.
And they should be in relatively good cap shape with >$30M (including carryover).
Personally, I don't think they re-sign JPP and Hankins. I think it's one or the other. Extending both would allocate a pretty disproportionate sum to the DL. Which one they re-sign probably depends on the health of JPP/Hankins and the development of Owa and Bromley.
Also keep in mind that WR is typically a high value position and the Giants other main WRs (Beckham/Shepard) will be making very little in 2017 (though 2018 is another story for Beckham). Dwayne Harris is projected to be their 2nd highest paid WR in 2017 at $3.8M (cap hit), so the Giants would have <$20M (~12% of the cap) committed to their entire WR core, which would be among the best in the game if Cruz puts up those #s. For comparison sake, Dez alone will have a $17M cap hit in 2017.
Also keep in mind that WR is typically a high value position and the Giants other main WRs (Beckham/Shepard) will be making very little in 2017 (though 2018 is another story for Beckham). Dwayne Harris is projected to be their 2nd highest paid WR in 2017 at $3.8M (cap hit), so the Giants would have <$20M (~12% of the cap) committed to their entire WR core, which would be among the best in the game if Cruz puts up those #s. For comparison sake, Dez alone will have a $17M cap hit in 2017.