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NFT: Mets at Marlins Game 1 Mets Chat 7/22

ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 10:04 am
Here we go!

-Verrett VS Conley

-Zack Wheeler plans to throw off a mound at Marlins Park in front of Mets brass

-Cubs pitcher Clayton Richard, who underwent thoracic outlet surgery in 2014, believes the procedure will help Matt Harvey. I felt so much better afterward. Its really been a new lease on my career, Richard tells Matt Ehalt in the Record. Very happy I had it done, because I would honestly probably be done. I couldnt really throw. I hope its the same for him. That isnt anything you want to go through.

-LGM!
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We need to tread water until reinforcements return  
spike : 7/22/2016 10:14 am : link
From injuries, in the form of Duda and Wheeler
I really feel that the root to all our  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 10:27 am : link
"hitting with runners in scoring position" problems has to do with Conforto and Duda. I guess to some extent Wright as well. Outside of Cespedes, we dont really have a middle of the order anymore. We have a bunch of 6-8 guys trying to hit cleanup and it's not working. Everyone is pressing and trying to do more then they should. Cespedes cant do it all by himself. Sandwich Cespedes with a "hitting Conforto" and Duda and suddenly he's protected, the middle of our order is back, and the pressure eases off of everyone.
Must win game today  
spike : 7/22/2016 1:04 pm : link
Met killer Jose Fernandez is pitching tomorrow.


Also, dont pitch to Stanton.
TDA with a wRC+ of  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 1:09 pm : link
119 in July. Wonder if he'll keep hitting 8th?
Rally killer specialist Cabrera should  
spike : 7/22/2016 1:21 pm : link
Bat 8th
Hopefully  
Metnut : 7/22/2016 1:21 pm : link
the Marlins don't hit a lot of fly balls with that big OF and our CF situation.

I think DeGrom can hold is own versus their ace, but sure would be nice to get a win tonight. A bad weekend here and they will likely be multiple games behind multiple teams for the WC.
I guess versus  
Metnut : 7/22/2016 1:22 pm : link
an LHP tonight they'll have Lagares/Flores in, so the OF won't be an issue until tomorrow and sunday.
If Duda and Wheeler are the 'reinforcements' we're waiting for...  
Torrag : 7/22/2016 2:21 pm : link
...this team isn't competing for the championship this season.
the Mets need to string some wins together because the calendar is  
Victor in CT : 7/22/2016 3:21 pm : link
fast becoming their enemy. They are in danger of running out of games.

And the Cards are 7-3 in their last 10 and even with the Mets in the loss column.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx  
sphinx : 7/22/2016 3:31 pm : link
#Mets lineup:

@lamelaza_7 3B
@cgrand3 RF
@ynscspds LF
Flores 1B
@NeilWalker18 2B
Cabrera SS
d'Arnaud C
@juanlagares2 CF
@lverrett4 P

RE: If Duda and Wheeler are the 'reinforcements' we're waiting for...  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 3:34 pm : link
In comment 13041895 Torrag said:
Quote:
...this team isn't competing for the championship this season.


They also need Conforto turn back into the young star he is expected to be. That with another setup man, maybe a back end starter like Cashner and I'm good.
The RISP issue goes back 5+ years  
Eric on Li : 7/22/2016 3:38 pm : link
Until Cespedes came along Murphy & pre-injury Wright were the only 2 hitters over that period of time who consistently took good at bats. Wright has obviously been a shell of himself pretty much since he signed that new contract.

Over the last 2-3 years at times Duda & TdA looked like they could be multi-year solutions at their respective positions - but they've been wildly inconsistent players.

Walker, Granderson, and Cabrera are solid vets who are serving their purpose as placeholders - they're just all miscast as middle of the order players.

The biggest reason for hope has also been the single most disappointing piece of the team this year - Conforto. He looked like he was going to take the baton as face of the franchise at the beginning of the year and it just went south. Second biggest factor is getting the bare minimum of production from TdA/Duda, who at this point may just be guys we can never rely on in big roles.
Gotta swap  
spike : 7/22/2016 3:38 pm : link
Walker and Cabrera with TDA and Lagares

Walkers current season is pretty much in line with his averages in Pittsburgh, with a slightly lower BA. Hes just an above average 2B, no all star
Wright was a phenomenal component  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 5:12 pm : link
Of our lineup as recently as last year and this year. Is it any coincidence our lineup was performing out of this world when Wright and Duda were in it through April? No. Everybody was pissing and moaning about two of our best performers... Well... They got to see what our lineup could be like without them and this is it.
RE: Gotta swap  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 5:15 pm : link
In comment 13042067 spike said:
Quote:
Walker and Cabrera with TDA and Lagares

Walkers current season is pretty much in line with his averages in Pittsburgh, with a slightly lower BA. Hes just an above average 2B, no all star


That's not true man. Walker has been much worse. Walker and Murphy's careers have basically been identical up until now. Walker is having an all time awful season by his standards. He's barely above league average. He definitely needs to bat 7th though.
I kinda wish we would match up  
spike : 7/22/2016 5:36 pm : link
Verrett start vs Jose Fernandez. This way Degrom and the Mets at least have a chance to win todays game.
We really should have thrown  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 5:53 pm : link
deGrom, Matz, and Thor at the Marlins this weekend. Everyone would have been on normal rest. No reason why we couldn't call up Gilmartin next week against the damn Rockies if we really needed to give everyone an extra day off. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
RE: Wright was a phenomenal component  
Eric on Li : 7/22/2016 5:55 pm : link
In comment 13042191 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Of our lineup as recently as last year and this year. Is it any coincidence our lineup was performing out of this world when Wright and Duda were in it through April? No. Everybody was pissing and moaning about two of our best performers... Well... They got to see what our lineup could be like without them and this is it.


Wright was a "phenomenal component" of our lineup this year might be your most ridiculous statement ever. Is that why moving him down the lineup was a major topic of conversation virtually the entire season? He played in 37 games hitting .226 with 55 K's and 14 RBI's.

Duda played in virtually the same number of games and the next hit he gets against a lefty will be his 2nd for the entire season. 25% of the season isn't exactly a super small sample size either.
I kind of really like  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 5:55 pm : link
Reyes
Granderson
Conforto(assuming he gets back on track)
Cespedes
Duda
TDA
Walker/Flores
Cabrera

Hope it happens at some point in the future.
RE: RE: Wright was a phenomenal component  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 6:02 pm : link
In comment 13042221 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 13042191 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


Of our lineup as recently as last year and this year. Is it any coincidence our lineup was performing out of this world when Wright and Duda were in it through April? No. Everybody was pissing and moaning about two of our best performers... Well... They got to see what our lineup could be like without them and this is it.



Wright was a "phenomenal component" of our lineup this year might be your most ridiculous statement ever. Is that why moving him down the lineup was a major topic of conversation virtually the entire season? He played in 37 games hitting .226 with 55 K's and 14 RBI's.

Duda played in virtually the same number of games and the next hit he gets against a lefty will be his 2nd for the entire season. 25% of the season isn't exactly a super small sample size either.


Hahaha. Dabid Wright posted a wRC+ of 119 this year. That STILL holds up as second best on the entire team to Cespedes. Last year he was at 133 (all-star level). I would kill for Wright's .350 OBP and pop at the top of the lineup right now. Wright was on pace for 28 HR and a .350 OBP. That's bad?? The crazy thing is his average likely WOULD have normalized and come up as well.

As for Duda. Holy smokes. Not only did the guy play with a broken bone in his back but you are trying to dissect a whopping 25 atbats against lefties? Please tell me this is a joke. Duda did an excellent job hitting lefties last year. Oh... and even with Duda's broken back and limited sample he was ALSO STILL on pace for 28-30 HR himself. Yeah... because our lineup doesn't need that in the middle of it. lol.
And excuse me for not giving a shit  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 6:07 pm : link
if 5 people on BBI discussed moving him out of the 2 hole. I supported him there as long as his OBP was up and it never dipped.
Wheeler throws...  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 6:12 pm : link
Zack Wheeler rejoined the Mets in Miami and threw a bullpen session in front of pitching coach Dan Warthen, Kristie Ackert of the Daily News reports.

During the session, Wheeler threw 30 pitches without incident.

Im happy where Im at right now, Wheeler told reporters in Miami.

The next step for the 26-year old right-hander is to face live batters before throwing simulated innings and eventually heading out on a minor league rehab assignment.

As of now, Wheelers return timetable remains the same. The Mets still believe that he can be ready to take the mound at Citi Field by mid to late August.
.  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 6:13 pm : link
New York Mets ✔ @Mets
.@cgrand3 is batting .310 with a .397 OBP, 4 doubles, 3 home runs and 8 RBI over his last 17 games. #MetsFacts
.  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 6:14 pm : link
Barry Svrluga ✔ @barrysvrluga
Best Nats trade info: They want in on Chapman. Others very interested. Won't give up Giolito, Turner, Robles, Lopez.

3h
RE: We really should have thrown  
spike : 7/22/2016 6:25 pm : link
In comment 13042217 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
deGrom, Matz, and Thor at the Marlins this weekend. Everyone would have been on normal rest. No reason why we couldn't call up Gilmartin next week against the damn Rockies if we really needed to give everyone an extra day off. Stupid, stupid, stupid.


Yep. Catching the Marlins (!) should be our short term goal right now. The season is looking worse and worse if we don't win this series.
Ah, your favorite stat  
Eric on Li : 7/22/2016 6:27 pm : link
Can you point to a single professional baseball person that justifies wRC+ as a universal end all of any discussion without any additional context? Sorry, but I don't care what formula you run the numbers through, hitting .220 with 4x as many strikeouts as RBIs is garbage. Any formula that would put David Wright's offensive performance this year at the exact same number as Derek Jeter's career average (119) has some holes in it.

And there were plenty of articles written about moving Wright down the lineup, none of which were authored by anyone on BBI.
RE: Ah, your favorite stat  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 6:50 pm : link
In comment 13042249 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Can you point to a single professional baseball person that justifies wRC+ as a universal end all of any discussion without any additional context? Sorry, but I don't care what formula you run the numbers through, hitting .220 with 4x as many strikeouts as RBIs is garbage. Any formula that would put David Wright's offensive performance this year at the exact same number as Derek Jeter's career average (119) has some holes in it.

And there were plenty of articles written about moving Wright down the lineup, none of which were authored by anyone on BBI.


Hate to break it to you but it doesn't. "Average Jeter" is exactly how Wright was playing this year which is exactly why your argument is beyond idiotic. Who thinks wRC+ (fangraphs) OPS+ (baseball refernece/Im fine if you use this instead) or OPS (basically what we are talking about with minor adjustments) is the ultimate measure of offensive production?? LOL. How about everyone living in the 21st century. I'm sorry it pisses you off so bad. It's clear you have no problem pulling out WARS or whatever you feel like when it better suits your argument. Oh and please show me these professional articles about Wright written by the Kieth Laws of the world or anyone with even a shred of actual baseball knowledge. I'm dying to read them. Since you're STILL lost...

"Similar to OPS+, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a players wRC compares with league average after controlling for park effects. League average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than a league average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.

wRC+ is park and league-adjusted, allowing one to to compare players who played in different years, parks, and leagues. Want to know how Ted Williams compares with Albert Pujols in terms of offensive abilities? This is your statistic. wRC+ is the most comprehensive rate statistic used to measure hitting performance because it takes into account the varying weights of each offensive action and then adjusts them for the park and league context in which they took place.
If you want a rate statistic for hitters that weights each offensive action and controls for league and park effects, wRC+ is for you. While wOBA is a huge step forward from stats like batting average and slugging percentage, it doesnt credit hitters who play in difficult parks or deduct points for hitters who play in smaller ones. wRC+ brings all the virtues of wOBA plus two added benefits; park and league adjustments. A .400 wOBA at Coors is much less impressive than one at Petco, for example. Additionally, wOBA tracks with overall league offense, so you cant use it to compare players of different eras very effectively. A .400 wOBA in 2000 is much less impressive than one in 2014, but a 140 wRC+ in 2000 means essentially the same thing in 2014. to Remember:

● If wRC sounds very similar to Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA), dont worry, youre not crazy. The statistics are very similar both numbers are based off wOBA and both quantify offensive ability in terms of runs but wRAA is scaled with zero as league average, while wRC is not.

● If youre thinking about using OPS+, use wRC+ instead. wRC+ is based off of wOBA and is regarded as a more accurate depiction of a players offensive value. They will typically offer similar conclusions, but wRC+ is superior and no more difficult to interpret or find."
Link - ( New Window )
Which season did Jeter have a 33% k-rate or hit under .270?  
Eric on Li : 7/22/2016 6:57 pm : link
you can copy and paste all you want, I'm never going to reduce my baseball observations or thoughts to a single stat like you.
RE: Which season did Jeter have a 33% k-rate or hit under .270?  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 6:58 pm : link
In comment 13042257 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
you can copy and paste all you want, I'm never going to reduce my baseball observations or thoughts to a single stat like you.


Well. Then you're a moron. Have a nice night.
and keeping hanging on to that batting average  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 7:00 pm : link
like it means something. I guess Bryce Harper who his hitting .250 sucks too. Poor Nats. They should cut him or move him to 8th in their order.
Honest question - bottom of the 9th, tying run at bat  
Eric on Li : 7/22/2016 7:04 pm : link
would you rather have Derek Jeter (119 career RC) up or Lucas Duda (123 career RC)?
Zack Wheeler on our situation...  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 7:05 pm : link
I know theyre struggling up here, but Im trying to help out the team and Im trying to look out for myself at the same time, so I can help the team more years down the road instead of just this year, Wheeler said. ... There are so many ups and downs. Im just going and seeing how my body recovers.

Wheeler noted his original surgery was more complicated than most Tommy John procedures that strictly involve replacing the torn ulnar collateral ligament. Doctors additionally had to address a partially torn tendon attached to a bony deposit in the elbow.

Some guys go fast. Some guys go slow, Wheeler said. I had a couple of different things done with my elbow than, say, somebody else did thats back already before I am. Its frustrating seeing those guys get out and go at 12 months and Im still sort of sticking around way behind them. Its frustrating. But, at the same time, I guess its for a reason. Youve just got to keep your head down and see what kind of character you have.
Dont expect Wheeler to be the Wheeler of old  
spike : 7/22/2016 7:07 pm : link
this season either.

He might be no better than Verrett this early period of recovery.
RE: Honest question - bottom of the 9th, tying run at bat  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 7:10 pm : link
In comment 13042261 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
would you rather have Derek Jeter (119 career RC) up or Lucas Duda (123 career RC)?


How many outs are there? If there are two outs I want Duda because he's much more likely to hit a HR and tie it. In a do or die situation though with nobody out, you probably just want to keep the line moving. If that's the case, Jeter's career OBP is .377. Duda's is .343. Also, is this is healthy back Duda from 2014-2015 or current Duda? Is this prime Jeter(1999) of the barely league average guy he was the last few years of his career?? There's a lot to consider but it's likely close which is why their wRC+ are close.
good job with the leadoff double  
spike : 7/22/2016 7:14 pm : link
reyes.

Lets get him in please
sac fly!!  
spike : 7/22/2016 7:15 pm : link
small ball does the job

mets 1-0
Look Eric.. I dont want to fight with you  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 7:17 pm : link
I operate in a world where OPS is the best measure of offensive production. If you want to use regular ol' OPS or OPS+(totally fine and almost the same as wRC+ but wRC+ is considered better so why not use the better?) we are communicating in the same universe. Batting average, RBI's, ect. are barbaric stats and they don't even paint close to an accurate depiction of what a hitter is doing.

It's who I am and how I'm always going to a consider a player's offense. We don't have to agree but until something better comes along I'm certainly not going backwards.

If you don't want to go there let's just agree to disagree and move on.
So you'd use more than 1 stat to make the decision? What a concept!  
Eric on Li : 7/22/2016 7:18 pm : link
Also if you'd put Duda up in any important situation instead of Jeter you're the moron, not me. Or should we give Carlos Pena a bat since he's also close in wRC+ (117) and more of a home run threat?
Please dont stink today  
spike : 7/22/2016 7:18 pm : link
Verrett!
Love getting the early run...  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 7:19 pm : link
Come on Verrett. Let's go! Huge game for Logan tonight.
RE: So you'd use more than 1 stat to make the decision? What a concept!  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 7:20 pm : link
In comment 13042274 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Also if you'd put Duda up in any important situation instead of Jeter you're the moron, not me. Or should we give Carlos Pena a bat since he's also close in wRC+ (117) and more of a home run threat?


Again, you're avoiding everything I asked you. Jeter the last 5 years of his career was horrid. I would take Asdrubal Cabrera over him. 1999 Jeter? I'd take him over Duda in a heartbeat.
Nice first inning!  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 7:24 pm : link
Lets keep it going!
RE: RE: So you'd use more than 1 stat to make the decision? What a concept!  
Eric on Li : 7/22/2016 7:29 pm : link
In comment 13042279 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 13042274 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


Also if you'd put Duda up in any important situation instead of Jeter you're the moron, not me. Or should we give Carlos Pena a bat since he's also close in wRC+ (117) and more of a home run threat?



Again, you're avoiding everything I asked you. Jeter the last 5 years of his career was horrid. I would take Asdrubal Cabrera over him. 1999 Jeter? I'd take him over Duda in a heartbeat.


Jeter's wRC+ was 117 in 2012 (2nd to last full season). I don't know about you, but that's more than enough for me to declare him as a phenomenal component of that year's team.
Come on Logan  
spike : 7/22/2016 7:33 pm : link
get a hit
Well....  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 7:33 pm : link
at least we clear the pitcher...
RE: RE: RE: So you'd use more than 1 stat to make the decision? What a concept!  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 7:40 pm : link
In comment 13042284 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 13042279 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


In comment 13042274 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


Also if you'd put Duda up in any important situation instead of Jeter you're the moron, not me. Or should we give Carlos Pena a bat since he's also close in wRC+ (117) and more of a home run threat?



Again, you're avoiding everything I asked you. Jeter the last 5 years of his career was horrid. I would take Asdrubal Cabrera over him. 1999 Jeter? I'd take him over Duda in a heartbeat.



Jeter's wRC+ was 117 in 2012 (2nd to last full season). I don't know about you, but that's more than enough for me to declare him as a phenomenal component of that year's team.


It was actually his third to last season. Jeter's last 5 years....

93
104
117
49 (yeah he didn't play much)
74

That combined average is horrible. He was a seriously declined player at that point. Yes, if you only want to count his 2012, I'll concede that was fine. Nothing special though! I would take 2014/2015 Duda over every one of those version's of Jeter fos sure.
Reyes is making stuff happen in this game  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 7:45 pm : link
Loving it so far.
RE: Reyes is making stuff happen in this game  
spike : 7/22/2016 7:46 pm : link
In comment 13042298 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Loving it so far.


He's determined to make the Fish pay
Z  
Bill in TN : 7/22/2016 7:49 pm : link
I read and enjoy your posts and insights regarding the Mets and BB in general.
However, I strongly disagree with your methods of evaluating offensive production.
Baseball games are won with runs.
The only meaningful statistic of offense is runs produced (runs scored + RBI - HRs). Nothing else matters.
Billy Beane's anal discharge of metrics was created mainly to evaluate a player's worth, i.e., contract value. It's all horseshit.
Give me a guy with 200 runs produced, he's worth $25Ma year.
Man.. Do we need  
ZGiants98 : 7/22/2016 7:49 pm : link
Cespedes to heat up again. Nice sign.
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