The one thing I cant stand about FO is when they invent stats that mean nothing and then pretend that it has meaning. They did the same thing with that SackSEER bullshit that predicted JPP to be the worst pass rusher ever.
The one thing I cant stand about FO is when they invent stats that mean nothing and then pretend that it has meaning. They did the same thing with that SackSEER bullshit that predicted JPP to be the worst pass rusher ever.
PFF is much better? Oh wait, pro teams hire them for some stats..
Reese has unquestionably missed on many draft picks outside the first round, and it is right to question why he has never traded down in any round. But his drafts have improved the last few years, and Richburg is one of the best centers in the NFL. We have also been at or near the top of the league in injuries the last few years, which is probably one reason Prince was allowed to leave. The Giants were also practically inventing new ways to lose last year, constantly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Even the author acknowledges the Giants would have had a much better record if their games were only 58 minutes long.
I expect Shepard and Apple to play and contribute a lot this year, and Jerry has been working hard. Flowers was a rookie LT playing on a bum ankle. Hankins had no help, and was therefore consistently being double teamed. I do agree that there are still major questions at LB and S. Lots of bodies, but can they play?
Romo is brittle, the Eagles have a rookie QB from a small school, and we need to see more from Cousins before deciding he is a top QB.
statistics to support an article that spouts the general conventional wisdom disguised as the result of deep analysis. Giants lost a lot of games in last few minutes, had injuries, had a weak defense, didn't have a strong Oline, Eli threw shorter passes, etc. etc. What we really need to know is how our new coach will do, will they develop the real toughness needed to win, can the free agents and rookies fill in the holes, will the team blend, will Eli become great again, and who will develop the way that Odell did to surprise and delight us all. The action starts this week. We will see.
After Round 1, however, Reese has basically morphed into the homeless Cleveland man who purportedly told Browns owner Jimmy Haslam to pick Johnny Manziel.
RE: Suspect there's copyright issues with this thread. Â
And how were the New York Football Giants the 2nd best team on special teams?!! I have to take back all the mean things I've posted about Quinn
Per the Dallas Morning News:
"The NFL's 32 teams are ranked in 22 kicking-game categories annually by The Dallas Morning News with points assigned in each category according to their standing (one for the best through 32 for the worst)."
So it's not some "made up stat." The Giants were a top notch unit on specials last year by any measure one would use despite one or two hiccups.
Talk about putting Reese on trial! Well, Jerry wanted the reporter to provide proof his drafts sucked and were worse than most teams. This shows how JR's drafts 2011-2015 are actually overall the worst in the NFL.
Pitiful and should earn him a ticket out of town if the team doesn't rebound this year.
"Pythagorean win expectancy" deserves an eye roll.
Why the eye roll?
That measure simply takes your point differential (amount of points your scoring - points allowed) and assigns how many wins you should expect to have based on that.
If you are scoring considerably more points than your opponent, the percentages say you should be winning more games than you lose. Not a difficult concept to follow.
If the Giants are let's say, +100 this season in terms of scoring compared to what they allow, I guarantee you they will have at least 10 wins if not more.
There's a surprising goof there WRT the 2013 Draft Class: Â
Out of the 22 selections Reese made from 2011
to 2013, only Justin Pugh and Johnathan Hankins still remain on the roster.
Set aside Cooper Taylor, whose exclusion might be justified by his temporary exile last year. The glaring omission is Ryan Nassib. I have no idea whether Nassib was a good or bad pick, but overlooking him altogether is a significant error. If you believe that the Giants got three years (2014-2016) of solid, cap-controlled backup QB insurance for the price of a fourth-round pick, the selection looks pretty good. Because of Eli Manning's durability, there are few metrics that would shed a positive light on the Nassib pick.
Anyway, the overall analysis is valid, especially with regard to the period through 2012.
Talk about putting Reese on trial! Well, Jerry wanted the reporter to provide proof his drafts sucked and were worse than most teams. This shows how JR's drafts 2011-2015 are actually overall the worst in the NFL.
Pitiful and should earn him a ticket out of town if the team doesn't rebound this year.
2011 & 2012 were bad drafts. I'm assuming you haven't looked at 2013-2015 drafts, as they are very good.
what many have said here. Every GM is going to miss in the draft, but giving yourself more bites at the apple is a way to mitigate those misses:
Quote:
Most mid- to late-round picks will bust and thus produce little value, but it really only takes a couple useful players to break even, or at least come close. This is the idea behind the “quantity over quality” approach when it comes to draft strategy. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Reese has blatantly ignored this widely accepted axiom, failing to trade down even once (!) during the 10 drafts he has overseen in New York. This approach, coupled with miserable mid-round results, has created a highly stratified stars-and-scrubs roster. The Giants as currently assembled resemble the guy at your fantasy
auction who spends all his money on Antonio Brown and
Adrian Peterson before checking out for the next few hours.
So although any team would struggle to withstand the type
of horrid injury luck New York has suffered through, it’s the Giants’ own fault that the drop-off to their backups is so cavernous.
Interesting to note that the top nine drafting teams on their list... Â
...include Houston, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Minnesota, Buffalo, Washington and Miami. How many playoff games have those seven teams won in this decade? I think the answer is "two" - because Houston and Cincinnati played each other twice. And for the most part (excluding the Bengals and occasional flashes from other teams), those franchises have stunk in the regular season too.
So, either the metric doesn't really capture the quality of those teams' drafts, or there's a lot more to success in the NFL than drafting well.
Kind of disingenuous to acknowledge the ludicrous injury rates Â
And how were the New York Football Giants the 2nd best team on special teams?!! I have to take back all the mean things I've posted about Quinn
I figure the kickoff return gets more practice being the defense couldn't stop anybody while offense scored their share of points so we kicked off a lot
:)
RE: Kind of disingenuous to acknowledge the ludicrous injury rates Â
"Long-term, the Giants resemble a homeowner who has fixed up the living room and built a beautiful yard, but still has leaky plumbing, shoddy electricity, and an unfinished basement.... But even as the roster’s star power allows the Giants to dream about their ceiling, the floor will once again loom perilously low."
RE: RE: Uh oh, Sterling Shepard had a low Playmaker Score at OU! Â
The one thing I cant stand about FO is when they invent stats that mean nothing and then pretend that it has meaning. They did the same thing with that SackSEER bullshit that predicted JPP to be the worst pass rusher ever.
PFF is much better? Oh wait, pro teams hire them for some stats..
Yeah they do. But what do pro football teams know about pro football.
"Pythagorean win expectancy" deserves an eye roll.
Why the eye roll?
Because it's another let's take everything and fit it into a formula bullshit. These are people playing the game and not everything fits into their nice little formulas and Excel spreadsheets. If everything fell neatly into their little formulas there would never be any upsets, good players would never have bad games and mediocre players would never have good games. It's all a crock of shit, except if it coincides with your opinion, then it's brilliant analysis.
"Pythagorean win expectancy" deserves an eye roll.
Why the eye roll?
Because it's another let's take everything and fit it into a formula bullshit. These are people playing the game and not everything fits into their nice little formulas and Excel spreadsheets. If everything fell neatly into their little formulas there would never be any upsets, good players would never have bad games and mediocre players would never have good games. It's all a crock of shit, except if it coincides with your opinion, then it's brilliant analysis.
Anyone here pissing and moaning about the stats they don't like will never be satisfied. The article contained very few absolutes about the future but offered some general predictions based on both facts (last year), statistics, and expert analysis. So - of course it will never be exact - I guess that means no one should ever write or talk about sports since they can't tell exactly what will happen.
This team looks like it upgraded on paper but not in one area we've consistently struggled - quality reserves and part-time players. As the article says, if we get some injury luck for once we should be better - but none of it is guaranteed.
with regard to two fundamental weaknesses:
1) Giants were 25th DVOA on passes to the middle of the field
2) Giants were terrible in their red zone offense
Imo unless the Jints address those two central issues nothing will have been accomplished this off season.
Granted a bit on the negative side and one could argue that statistics can be made to say anything you want. But, I think the article pretty much captures what the Giants are.
As Parcells' said, "You are what your record says you are." Look at the Giants record the last four years. I hope the free agent acquisitions are worth their contracts. If so, they will be difference makers. But, the overall talent and depth of the roster needed an upgrade. I hope the Giants are on their way towards doing that.
"Pythagorean win expectancy" deserves an eye roll.
Why the eye roll?
Because it's another let's take everything and fit it into a formula bullshit. These are people playing the game and not everything fits into their nice little formulas and Excel spreadsheets. If everything fell neatly into their little formulas there would never be any upsets, good players would never have bad games and mediocre players would never have good games. It's all a crock of shit, except if it coincides with your opinion, then it's brilliant analysis.
So when a team (or any business for that matter) looks at past performance and tries to have some predictor of future performance, how do you think they do that?
Teams and businesses don't just take a guess and hope for the best. There is some level of numeric and quantitative analysis that goes along with it. To deny it would be illogical.
this being 'bad' necessarily understands the metrics. I don't agree with everything in the FO piece, that doesn't mean I completely disregard everything in the article.
Teams and businesses don't just take a guess and hope for the best. There is some level of numeric and quantitative analysis that goes along with it. To deny it would be illogical.
I used to program predictors for business. I'll bet all investment firms use stats also. This stuff from FO is not a stretch at all.
2008 was actually the best draft with an at least serviceable play from S Phillips, CB Thomas, LB Goff and WR Manningham.
But 2009 to 2013 were just horrible, all bad drafts. How do you not fire Reese and the scouting department? Honestly, I didn't even realize it was this bad until I read the article PDF. 32nd and worst in the league folks....just deplorable!
I do believe our 2014 - 2016 drafts were better. I really think these three classes will step up this year and be the main reason we compete in the playoffs after we win the division over Dallas. Our 2016 class, well, I just have this feeling that all six guys will pan out and be contributors and above average picks for the rounds they were taken in and so forth. I think Apple, Shepard, Thompson, Goodson, Perkins are all starters in 2017 and TE Adams will certainly be active on game day behind TE Tye. I also think we have some quality UDFA's this year and WR Powe may stick on the active roster.
Drafting is partially luck, for sure. Guys have to stay healthy for one. We have been the most injured team in the league from mid 2012 to date. That is also some bad luck and maybe some bad conditioning program?
This article has really made me open my eyes about Reese and the scouting department. Hopefully, my theory that 2014 to 2016 will produce cause if I am wrong we ain't going anywhere until the front office is also overhauled.
Talk about putting Reese on trial! Well, Jerry wanted the reporter to provide proof his drafts sucked and were worse than most teams. This shows how JR's drafts 2011-2015 are actually overall the worst in the NFL.
Pitiful and should earn him a ticket out of town if the team doesn't rebound this year.
I think his drafts from 2009 - 2013 were so bad that he should have been released after 2013 along with many in the scouting department. We didn't release him and it eventually cost TC his job as HC. You can't win without talent. You also can't win when your key guys are on IR or just hurt in season at an above average rate. TC never had a chance with those injuries and poor drafts.
The silver lining is that I do believe our 2014 to 2016 drafts will be above average and that this will be the year that proves that out.
The Giants were excellent last year. It's amazing what adding some speed with tackling can do.
I posted a thread about the Giants being one of the best special teams units in the NFL this year and many scoffed, especially when it came to covering punts. We can be overly critical.
I think the 2016 unit has the potential to be top 5 in the league once again.
Granted a bit on the negative side and one could argue that statistics can be made to say anything you want. But, I think the article pretty much captures what the Giants are.
As Parcells' said, "You are what your record says you are." Look at the Giants record the last four years. I hope the free agent acquisitions are worth their contracts. If so, they will be difference makers. But, the overall talent and depth of the roster needed an upgrade. I hope the Giants are on their way towards doing that.
Reese had no choice but to overpay for UFA's this year, especially for defense. We had one of the worst defenses EVER. There was no pass rush. The run defense was struggling.
On paper, our front four DL has four well above average run stoppers. I will go on record to say all four range from the 80th percentile to 100th percentile (DT Damon Snacks being the league's best). That is truly impressive. I am of course also assuming JPP can grip with that hand and stop the run like he once did when he was super solid.
Throw in a health LB Kennard, veteran MLB Brinkley and WLB Robinson - my projected starters - and you have potentially a top five run stopping unit. I truly believe that is attainable. If healthy.
Talk about putting Reese on trial! Well, Jerry wanted the reporter to provide proof his drafts sucked and were worse than most teams. This shows how JR's drafts 2011-2015 are actually overall the worst in the NFL.
Pitiful and should earn him a ticket out of town if the team doesn't rebound this year.
I think his drafts from 2009 - 2013 were so bad that he should have been released after 2013 along with many in the scouting department. We didn't release him and it eventually cost TC his job as HC. You can't win without talent. You also can't win when your key guys are on IR or just hurt in season at an above average rate. TC never had a chance with those injuries and poor drafts.
The silver lining is that I do believe our 2014 to 2016 drafts will be above average and that this will be the year that proves that out.
His drafts were not bad 2008-2010. We came away with a handful of good players during that time. JPP, Linval Joseph, Nicks, Beatty, Phillips, Thomas, and Manningham were all key pieces that were responsible for a SUPER BOWL. You keep banging that drum, when it was the 2011-2012 drafts that set the team back.
SGMen, you're completely wrong about the 2008 - 2010 drafts. Â
In 2008, picking last in every round, we drafted three eventual starters - Phillips, Thomas, and Goff - plus Mario Manningham. If that's a bad draft, I'll take a bad draft every year. It's not Reese's fault that we lost every one of those guys to injury.
In 2009, picking close to the bottom of each round, if we didn't get quantity, we certainly got quality, with a dynamic WR in Nicks, and a starting LT in Beatty. Could it have been a better draft? Perhaps, but it wasn't the disaster that a lot of folks think, as Nicks paid huge dividends in our 2011 Super Bowl run. Ding, ding, ding.
In 2010, we drafted JPP and Linval Joseph. JPP was a legit DPOY candidate in 2011 and a huge part of the Super Bowl run, too. No mistake drafting LJ...big mistake not keeping him. We'll never know how Chad Jones might have turned out, but he was a good pick at the time. If the rest of the class fizzled out, well, shit happens.
I asked SG the other night if he sees Sehorn as a bust Â
because by his logic, he's had a similar career path as KP and TT.
I really don't want to diss the guy, because he seems like a nice person and a genuine fan, but there are a couple of things about him that remind me of Jersey Joe (although I'm pretty sure he's not him).
1. His exuberance is about as cloying as it gets. Sometimes I wonder if he's living in a fantasy world when it comes to the Giants.
2. His next original thought will be his first.
RE: SGMen, you're completely wrong about the 2008 - 2010 drafts. Â
In 2008, picking last in every round, we drafted three eventual starters - Phillips, Thomas, and Goff - plus Mario Manningham. If that's a bad draft, I'll take a bad draft every year. It's not Reese's fault that we lost every one of those guys to injury.
In 2009, picking close to the bottom of each round, if we didn't get quantity, we certainly got quality, with a dynamic WR in Nicks, and a starting LT in Beatty. Could it have been a better draft? Perhaps, but it wasn't the disaster that a lot of folks think, as Nicks paid huge dividends in our 2011 Super Bowl run. Ding, ding, ding.
In 2010, we drafted JPP and Linval Joseph. JPP was a legit DPOY candidate in 2011 and a huge part of the Super Bowl run, too. No mistake drafting LJ...big mistake not keeping him. We'll never know how Chad Jones might have turned out, but he was a good pick at the time. If the rest of the class fizzled out, well, shit happens.
Injuries are part of the game and part of any metric. They are unfortunate. On later posts, I backed off on some of my negativity of the 2008 draft since we did get 3 guys who contributed and yes we picked late.
But how can anyone say we've drafted well under Reese overall until maybe recently. I think our 2014 draft to 2016 drafts will turn out to all be "above average" and solid.
As for Sehorn, it is a shame he tore his ACL on special teams because he was really on his way to being a very good NFL CB. He had a very good career for us.
Guys, metrics are what they are: statistical measurements based on data. The data includes injuries in the sense that guys miss games and therefore aren't going to be productive. To deny basic logic is well not very smart I'd think.
You take MLB Brinkley. He is 31 and has missed just 1 NFL game in his career. He's never probowled or anything but he is solid vs the run and smart enough to line up a defense.
LB Robinson has more pure talent but has played sparingly due to injuries and that is why he wasn't hotly pursued in free agency. When healthy, if he can stay healthy, I think he is a bonafide NFL starter. In matter of fact, I think he wins our starting WLB job and slides to the middle on passing downs.
And compare and contrast Reese's drafts with every other GM/team from 2007-2016, taking into account the number of picks each year and the average draft position. Then tell me where he stands. Reese is far from perfect and I've had my own issues with him during his tenure, but in my opinion the bashing he gets here is very often without merit.
RE: RE: I asked SG the other night if he sees Sehorn as a bust Â
because by his logic, he's had a similar career path as KP and TT.
I really don't want to diss the guy, because he seems like a nice person and a genuine fan, but there are a couple of things about him that remind me of Jersey Joe (although I'm pretty sure he's not him).
1. His exuberance is about as cloying as it gets. Sometimes I wonder if he's living in a fantasy world when it comes to the Giants.
2. His next original thought will be his first.
I have posted more this past week than I did the entire year up to this week. I was in the hospital, got out, and was home on my couch so why not talk some football as I mend? Why not be exuberant?
Let me also clarify some things, be more realistic if you will, and I'll start with DT Nikita. Do I actually believe he makes this team as a pass rush specialist, backup FB and special teamer? Answer: DOUBTFUL. The Giants signed FB Johnson because he's much better at FB and special teams plus he's been noted as a hard worker and great lockerroom guy.
Do I really believe C. Taylor could win a starting FS job due to his experience and rebounding from injuries? Answer: NO, he's always getting hurt and hasn't shown great skills when he has played. Even Pat Traina said "don't count on him" or word to that effect in the C. Taylor thread. I think he'll compete in camp but how do you justify keeping him over the other five: Thompson, Behre, Collins, Jackson and M. Thompson? You can't unless one of them is hurt.
RB Jennings is 31. There is NO guarantee he hasn't lost a shade. Do I think he could get cut and RB Rainey takes his role? Answer: very doubtful but not impossible. How many 31 year old running backs have been very productive at 31? He may start strong and fade which is why I like RB Perkins to step up later in the year, similar to what Bradshaw did in 2007.
I'm a fan, I'm optimistic and enthusiastic but I'm also not an expert in NFL as I've never played in college or coaches or anything like that. I read the articles, scouting reports, watch TV just like the vast majority do.
article is ranking Reese dead last in drafting from 2011-2015 combined. I will admit I really like the 2014-2016 drafts and think Reese changed his drafting philosophy.
I've "known" SGMen for over 15 years. I don't ever recall us ever Â
engaged in insulting discussion..Every conversation is as civil as it gets, whether we happen to agree or not on a particular topic. There should be more like him
engaged in insulting discussion..Every conversation is as civil as it gets, whether we happen to agree or not on a particular topic. There should be more like him
engaged in insulting discussion.Every conversation is as civil as it gets, whether we happen to agree or not on a particular topic. There should be more like him
Thanks, BB'56, I appreciate it.
I've been on BBI since about its inception some 19 years I believe? I don't do "fights" or engage in nonsense.
Camp is about to start guys, and we have had a run of bad luck since mid-2012, especially with injuries. To say we haven't drafted fairly poorly after round 1 is an understatement.
engaged in insulting discussion.Every conversation is as civil as it gets, whether we happen to agree or not on a particular topic. There should be more like him
Thanks, BB'56, I appreciate it.
I've been on BBI since about its inception some 19 years I believe? I don't do "fights" or engage in nonsense.
Camp is about to start guys, and we have had a run of bad luck since mid-2012, especially with injuries. To say we haven't drafted fairly poorly after round 1 is an understatement.
If you are a fan how can't you be optimistic? How can't you not have faith that this year we'll stay fairly healthy, finally, for once?
I know these are longshot "wishful" thoughts and they are but thoughts BUT what if they do come to light and happen?
1. RB A. Williams wins the starting RB job based on production and ability over veteran Jennings. You have to hope this kid finally learns and we use him correctly with a FB and blocking scheme that suits him.
2. FB Nikita Whitlock - what if he flashes pass rush, special teams and improved FB blocking. Do you find a spot for a guy who can rush the passer 10 to 15 snaps a game? I believe if you have a guy that can create a mismatch for you; that can be lined up all over the front 7 to rush; you must keep him. And if he plays on all the special teams units and flourishes you keep him. Oh, and backup FB should Johnson get dinged, well, all the better.
3. Continuity - I believe in this offense mainly because it is a veteran group returning in tact and in year 3 of a good scheme, WCO. I think the continuity and improved blocking / talent will lead Eli to throw more deep passes, those that travel 20 or more yards, and that is a big part of his game. Eli was the NFL's highest rated QB at throwing 20 yards or more and had 11 TD's and 0 interceptions. I see more attempts, more TD's and well overall better play deep. That opens things up for the run game as safeties must stay honest.
4. WR Victor Cruz bouncing back and being productive. I believe he rebounds and finally stays healthy. It has been 21 months since the patella and 11 months since the calf. He is 29 and turns 30 in October I believe. He is young enough to bounce back. How can you not be enthusiastic about this guy having a 70-950-7 type season or something like that? If he is an improvement over Randle this offense gets to another level.
Last point: I think this offense can be top 5 both in yards and scoring. I think this defense can be top 5 versus the run now so controlling the clock won't be easy. I also believe this defense can fall in the 12-15 range in pass defense simply because we have two DE's that can rush along with LB Kennard. We have 2 solid cover corners and if Apple is as good as I think he'll be as an outside CB we'll be solid with coverage and getting turnovers. I'm an optimist, a fan, an enthusiastic guy who hopes for the best. I just don't EXPECT it. Expectation is the mother of STRESS and II don't need it. Hope is a good thing.
should be remembered as "you were what your record says you were.
Okay, so we were a 6-10 team. In this league the teams with six to ten wins have shown to be capable of dramatic change year to year. If not, how did the Redskins go from no chance to win to division champs in a matter of months?
We won six games, but were close on a number more. We WERE that team. It is incorrect to say we ARE that team right now. Every team is tied right now - there is no record to say what we are.
should be remembered as "you were what your record says you were.
Okay, so we were a 6-10 team. In this league the teams with six to ten wins have shown to be capable of dramatic change year to year. If not, how did the Redskins go from no chance to win to division champs in a matter of months?
We won six games, but were close on a number more. We WERE that team. It is incorrect to say we ARE that team right now. Every team is tied right now - there is no record to say what we are.
We lost six games in the last 2 minutes, entering the fourth quarter of each of those games with the lead but losing late. That is why TC is gone and McAdoo is in charge. Injuries were the #1 reason we fell to 6-10 followed by lack of talent and some bad time clock management by TC.
In the NFL, you can jump from 4-12 to 12-4 if you draft well; heal up; stay healthy; improve youth; get quality UFA additions; improve coaching, etc. It isn't unheard of for a team to have a total turnaround or to totally flop.
Did anyone think the Cowboys who were 12-4 in 2014 would fall to 4-12? Not likely. But it happened because Romo, Bryant and Scandrick were hurt. They couldn't overcome Romo especially.
engaged in insulting discussion..Every conversation is as civil as it gets, whether we happen to agree or not on a particular topic. There should be more like him
"Pythagorean win expectancy" deserves an eye roll.
Why the eye roll?
Because it's another let's take everything and fit it into a formula bullshit. These are people playing the game and not everything fits into their nice little formulas and Excel spreadsheets. If everything fell neatly into their little formulas there would never be any upsets, good players would never have bad games and mediocre players would never have good games. It's all a crock of shit, except if it coincides with your opinion, then it's brilliant analysis.
This is such basic misunderstanding of statistics it's mind boggling. By your logic that means that no one should ever win the lottery since the odds are ridiculously low. Statistics just state who is more likely to win and play well not who will win or play well for sure.
And how were the New York Football Giants the 2nd best team on special teams?!! I have to take back all the mean things I've posted about Quinn
PFF is much better? Oh wait, pro teams hire them for some stats..
Reese has unquestionably missed on many draft picks outside the first round, and it is right to question why he has never traded down in any round. But his drafts have improved the last few years, and Richburg is one of the best centers in the NFL. We have also been at or near the top of the league in injuries the last few years, which is probably one reason Prince was allowed to leave. The Giants were also practically inventing new ways to lose last year, constantly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Even the author acknowledges the Giants would have had a much better record if their games were only 58 minutes long.
I expect Shepard and Apple to play and contribute a lot this year, and Jerry has been working hard. Flowers was a rookie LT playing on a bum ankle. Hankins had no help, and was therefore consistently being double teamed. I do agree that there are still major questions at LB and S. Lots of bodies, but can they play?
Romo is brittle, the Eagles have a rookie QB from a small school, and we need to see more from Cousins before deciding he is a top QB.
And how were the New York Football Giants the 2nd best team on special teams?!! I have to take back all the mean things I've posted about Quinn
This is the "free sample" chapter that they've released to promote the rest of the book.
Link - ( New Window )
And how were the New York Football Giants the 2nd best team on special teams?!! I have to take back all the mean things I've posted about Quinn
Per the Dallas Morning News:
"The NFL's 32 teams are ranked in 22 kicking-game categories annually by The Dallas Morning News with points assigned in each category according to their standing (one for the best through 32 for the worst)."
So it's not some "made up stat." The Giants were a top notch unit on specials last year by any measure one would use despite one or two hiccups.
Rick Gosselin's NFL special teams rankings, 2015 - ( New Window )
Pitiful and should earn him a ticket out of town if the team doesn't rebound this year.
Why the eye roll?
That measure simply takes your point differential (amount of points your scoring - points allowed) and assigns how many wins you should expect to have based on that.
If you are scoring considerably more points than your opponent, the percentages say you should be winning more games than you lose. Not a difficult concept to follow.
If the Giants are let's say, +100 this season in terms of scoring compared to what they allow, I guarantee you they will have at least 10 wins if not more.
to 2013, only Justin Pugh and Johnathan Hankins still remain on the roster.
Set aside Cooper Taylor, whose exclusion might be justified by his temporary exile last year. The glaring omission is Ryan Nassib. I have no idea whether Nassib was a good or bad pick, but overlooking him altogether is a significant error. If you believe that the Giants got three years (2014-2016) of solid, cap-controlled backup QB insurance for the price of a fourth-round pick, the selection looks pretty good. Because of Eli Manning's durability, there are few metrics that would shed a positive light on the Nassib pick.
Anyway, the overall analysis is valid, especially with regard to the period through 2012.
Pitiful and should earn him a ticket out of town if the team doesn't rebound this year.
2011 & 2012 were bad drafts. I'm assuming you haven't looked at 2013-2015 drafts, as they are very good.
auction who spends all his money on Antonio Brown and
Adrian Peterson before checking out for the next few hours.
So although any team would struggle to withstand the type
of horrid injury luck New York has suffered through, it’s the Giants’ own fault that the drop-off to their backups is so cavernous.
So, either the metric doesn't really capture the quality of those teams' drafts, or there's a lot more to success in the NFL than drafting well.
And how were the New York Football Giants the 2nd best team on special teams?!! I have to take back all the mean things I've posted about Quinn
I figure the kickoff return gets more practice being the defense couldn't stop anybody while offense scored their share of points so we kicked off a lot
:)
Yup. That and the fact that folks around here think a bad drafts never happen.
Quote:
The one thing I cant stand about FO is when they invent stats that mean nothing and then pretend that it has meaning. They did the same thing with that SackSEER bullshit that predicted JPP to be the worst pass rusher ever.
PFF is much better? Oh wait, pro teams hire them for some stats..
Yeah they do. But what do pro football teams know about pro football.
Quote:
"Pythagorean win expectancy" deserves an eye roll.
Why the eye roll?
Because it's another let's take everything and fit it into a formula bullshit. These are people playing the game and not everything fits into their nice little formulas and Excel spreadsheets. If everything fell neatly into their little formulas there would never be any upsets, good players would never have bad games and mediocre players would never have good games. It's all a crock of shit, except if it coincides with your opinion, then it's brilliant analysis.
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In comment 13045139 Gman11 said:
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"Pythagorean win expectancy" deserves an eye roll.
Why the eye roll?
Because it's another let's take everything and fit it into a formula bullshit. These are people playing the game and not everything fits into their nice little formulas and Excel spreadsheets. If everything fell neatly into their little formulas there would never be any upsets, good players would never have bad games and mediocre players would never have good games. It's all a crock of shit, except if it coincides with your opinion, then it's brilliant analysis.
+1
This team looks like it upgraded on paper but not in one area we've consistently struggled - quality reserves and part-time players. As the article says, if we get some injury luck for once we should be better - but none of it is guaranteed.
1) Giants were 25th DVOA on passes to the middle of the field
2) Giants were terrible in their red zone offense
Imo unless the Jints address those two central issues nothing will have been accomplished this off season.
As Parcells' said, "You are what your record says you are." Look at the Giants record the last four years. I hope the free agent acquisitions are worth their contracts. If so, they will be difference makers. But, the overall talent and depth of the roster needed an upgrade. I hope the Giants are on their way towards doing that.
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In comment 13045139 Gman11 said:
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"Pythagorean win expectancy" deserves an eye roll.
Why the eye roll?
Because it's another let's take everything and fit it into a formula bullshit. These are people playing the game and not everything fits into their nice little formulas and Excel spreadsheets. If everything fell neatly into their little formulas there would never be any upsets, good players would never have bad games and mediocre players would never have good games. It's all a crock of shit, except if it coincides with your opinion, then it's brilliant analysis.
So when a team (or any business for that matter) looks at past performance and tries to have some predictor of future performance, how do you think they do that?
Teams and businesses don't just take a guess and hope for the best. There is some level of numeric and quantitative analysis that goes along with it. To deny it would be illogical.
Teams and businesses don't just take a guess and hope for the best. There is some level of numeric and quantitative analysis that goes along with it. To deny it would be illogical.
I used to program predictors for business. I'll bet all investment firms use stats also. This stuff from FO is not a stretch at all.
But 2009 to 2013 were just horrible, all bad drafts. How do you not fire Reese and the scouting department? Honestly, I didn't even realize it was this bad until I read the article PDF. 32nd and worst in the league folks....just deplorable!
I do believe our 2014 - 2016 drafts were better. I really think these three classes will step up this year and be the main reason we compete in the playoffs after we win the division over Dallas. Our 2016 class, well, I just have this feeling that all six guys will pan out and be contributors and above average picks for the rounds they were taken in and so forth. I think Apple, Shepard, Thompson, Goodson, Perkins are all starters in 2017 and TE Adams will certainly be active on game day behind TE Tye. I also think we have some quality UDFA's this year and WR Powe may stick on the active roster.
Drafting is partially luck, for sure. Guys have to stay healthy for one. We have been the most injured team in the league from mid 2012 to date. That is also some bad luck and maybe some bad conditioning program?
This article has really made me open my eyes about Reese and the scouting department. Hopefully, my theory that 2014 to 2016 will produce cause if I am wrong we ain't going anywhere until the front office is also overhauled.
Pitiful and should earn him a ticket out of town if the team doesn't rebound this year.
The silver lining is that I do believe our 2014 to 2016 drafts will be above average and that this will be the year that proves that out.
I think the 2016 unit has the potential to be top 5 in the league once again.
As Parcells' said, "You are what your record says you are." Look at the Giants record the last four years. I hope the free agent acquisitions are worth their contracts. If so, they will be difference makers. But, the overall talent and depth of the roster needed an upgrade. I hope the Giants are on their way towards doing that.
On paper, our front four DL has four well above average run stoppers. I will go on record to say all four range from the 80th percentile to 100th percentile (DT Damon Snacks being the league's best). That is truly impressive. I am of course also assuming JPP can grip with that hand and stop the run like he once did when he was super solid.
Throw in a health LB Kennard, veteran MLB Brinkley and WLB Robinson - my projected starters - and you have potentially a top five run stopping unit. I truly believe that is attainable. If healthy.
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Talk about putting Reese on trial! Well, Jerry wanted the reporter to provide proof his drafts sucked and were worse than most teams. This shows how JR's drafts 2011-2015 are actually overall the worst in the NFL.
Pitiful and should earn him a ticket out of town if the team doesn't rebound this year.
I think his drafts from 2009 - 2013 were so bad that he should have been released after 2013 along with many in the scouting department. We didn't release him and it eventually cost TC his job as HC. You can't win without talent. You also can't win when your key guys are on IR or just hurt in season at an above average rate. TC never had a chance with those injuries and poor drafts.
The silver lining is that I do believe our 2014 to 2016 drafts will be above average and that this will be the year that proves that out.
His drafts were not bad 2008-2010. We came away with a handful of good players during that time. JPP, Linval Joseph, Nicks, Beatty, Phillips, Thomas, and Manningham were all key pieces that were responsible for a SUPER BOWL. You keep banging that drum, when it was the 2011-2012 drafts that set the team back.
In 2009, picking close to the bottom of each round, if we didn't get quantity, we certainly got quality, with a dynamic WR in Nicks, and a starting LT in Beatty. Could it have been a better draft? Perhaps, but it wasn't the disaster that a lot of folks think, as Nicks paid huge dividends in our 2011 Super Bowl run. Ding, ding, ding.
In 2010, we drafted JPP and Linval Joseph. JPP was a legit DPOY candidate in 2011 and a huge part of the Super Bowl run, too. No mistake drafting LJ...big mistake not keeping him. We'll never know how Chad Jones might have turned out, but he was a good pick at the time. If the rest of the class fizzled out, well, shit happens.
I really don't want to diss the guy, because he seems like a nice person and a genuine fan, but there are a couple of things about him that remind me of Jersey Joe (although I'm pretty sure he's not him).
1. His exuberance is about as cloying as it gets. Sometimes I wonder if he's living in a fantasy world when it comes to the Giants.
2. His next original thought will be his first.
In 2009, picking close to the bottom of each round, if we didn't get quantity, we certainly got quality, with a dynamic WR in Nicks, and a starting LT in Beatty. Could it have been a better draft? Perhaps, but it wasn't the disaster that a lot of folks think, as Nicks paid huge dividends in our 2011 Super Bowl run. Ding, ding, ding.
In 2010, we drafted JPP and Linval Joseph. JPP was a legit DPOY candidate in 2011 and a huge part of the Super Bowl run, too. No mistake drafting LJ...big mistake not keeping him. We'll never know how Chad Jones might have turned out, but he was a good pick at the time. If the rest of the class fizzled out, well, shit happens.
But how can anyone say we've drafted well under Reese overall until maybe recently. I think our 2014 draft to 2016 drafts will turn out to all be "above average" and solid.
As for Sehorn, it is a shame he tore his ACL on special teams because he was really on his way to being a very good NFL CB. He had a very good career for us.
Guys, metrics are what they are: statistical measurements based on data. The data includes injuries in the sense that guys miss games and therefore aren't going to be productive. To deny basic logic is well not very smart I'd think.
You take MLB Brinkley. He is 31 and has missed just 1 NFL game in his career. He's never probowled or anything but he is solid vs the run and smart enough to line up a defense.
LB Robinson has more pure talent but has played sparingly due to injuries and that is why he wasn't hotly pursued in free agency. When healthy, if he can stay healthy, I think he is a bonafide NFL starter. In matter of fact, I think he wins our starting WLB job and slides to the middle on passing downs.
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because by his logic, he's had a similar career path as KP and TT.
I really don't want to diss the guy, because he seems like a nice person and a genuine fan, but there are a couple of things about him that remind me of Jersey Joe (although I'm pretty sure he's not him).
1. His exuberance is about as cloying as it gets. Sometimes I wonder if he's living in a fantasy world when it comes to the Giants.
2. His next original thought will be his first.
Let me also clarify some things, be more realistic if you will, and I'll start with DT Nikita. Do I actually believe he makes this team as a pass rush specialist, backup FB and special teamer? Answer: DOUBTFUL. The Giants signed FB Johnson because he's much better at FB and special teams plus he's been noted as a hard worker and great lockerroom guy.
Do I really believe C. Taylor could win a starting FS job due to his experience and rebounding from injuries? Answer: NO, he's always getting hurt and hasn't shown great skills when he has played. Even Pat Traina said "don't count on him" or word to that effect in the C. Taylor thread. I think he'll compete in camp but how do you justify keeping him over the other five: Thompson, Behre, Collins, Jackson and M. Thompson? You can't unless one of them is hurt.
RB Jennings is 31. There is NO guarantee he hasn't lost a shade. Do I think he could get cut and RB Rainey takes his role? Answer: very doubtful but not impossible. How many 31 year old running backs have been very productive at 31? He may start strong and fade which is why I like RB Perkins to step up later in the year, similar to what Bradshaw did in 2007.
I'm a fan, I'm optimistic and enthusiastic but I'm also not an expert in NFL as I've never played in college or coaches or anything like that. I read the articles, scouting reports, watch TV just like the vast majority do.
Go Giants!
He's a likeable poster. Like you.
I've been on BBI since about its inception some 19 years I believe? I don't do "fights" or engage in nonsense.
Camp is about to start guys, and we have had a run of bad luck since mid-2012, especially with injuries. To say we haven't drafted fairly poorly after round 1 is an understatement.
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engaged in insulting discussion.Every conversation is as civil as it gets, whether we happen to agree or not on a particular topic. There should be more like him
Thanks, BB'56, I appreciate it.
I've been on BBI since about its inception some 19 years I believe? I don't do "fights" or engage in nonsense.
Camp is about to start guys, and we have had a run of bad luck since mid-2012, especially with injuries. To say we haven't drafted fairly poorly after round 1 is an understatement.
I know these are longshot "wishful" thoughts and they are but thoughts BUT what if they do come to light and happen?
1. RB A. Williams wins the starting RB job based on production and ability over veteran Jennings. You have to hope this kid finally learns and we use him correctly with a FB and blocking scheme that suits him.
2. FB Nikita Whitlock - what if he flashes pass rush, special teams and improved FB blocking. Do you find a spot for a guy who can rush the passer 10 to 15 snaps a game? I believe if you have a guy that can create a mismatch for you; that can be lined up all over the front 7 to rush; you must keep him. And if he plays on all the special teams units and flourishes you keep him. Oh, and backup FB should Johnson get dinged, well, all the better.
3. Continuity - I believe in this offense mainly because it is a veteran group returning in tact and in year 3 of a good scheme, WCO. I think the continuity and improved blocking / talent will lead Eli to throw more deep passes, those that travel 20 or more yards, and that is a big part of his game. Eli was the NFL's highest rated QB at throwing 20 yards or more and had 11 TD's and 0 interceptions. I see more attempts, more TD's and well overall better play deep. That opens things up for the run game as safeties must stay honest.
4. WR Victor Cruz bouncing back and being productive. I believe he rebounds and finally stays healthy. It has been 21 months since the patella and 11 months since the calf. He is 29 and turns 30 in October I believe. He is young enough to bounce back. How can you not be enthusiastic about this guy having a 70-950-7 type season or something like that? If he is an improvement over Randle this offense gets to another level.
Last point: I think this offense can be top 5 both in yards and scoring. I think this defense can be top 5 versus the run now so controlling the clock won't be easy. I also believe this defense can fall in the 12-15 range in pass defense simply because we have two DE's that can rush along with LB Kennard. We have 2 solid cover corners and if Apple is as good as I think he'll be as an outside CB we'll be solid with coverage and getting turnovers. I'm an optimist, a fan, an enthusiastic guy who hopes for the best. I just don't EXPECT it. Expectation is the mother of STRESS and II don't need it. Hope is a good thing.
Okay, so we were a 6-10 team. In this league the teams with six to ten wins have shown to be capable of dramatic change year to year. If not, how did the Redskins go from no chance to win to division champs in a matter of months?
We won six games, but were close on a number more. We WERE that team. It is incorrect to say we ARE that team right now. Every team is tied right now - there is no record to say what we are.
Okay, so we were a 6-10 team. In this league the teams with six to ten wins have shown to be capable of dramatic change year to year. If not, how did the Redskins go from no chance to win to division champs in a matter of months?
We won six games, but were close on a number more. We WERE that team. It is incorrect to say we ARE that team right now. Every team is tied right now - there is no record to say what we are.
In the NFL, you can jump from 4-12 to 12-4 if you draft well; heal up; stay healthy; improve youth; get quality UFA additions; improve coaching, etc. It isn't unheard of for a team to have a total turnaround or to totally flop.
Did anyone think the Cowboys who were 12-4 in 2014 would fall to 4-12? Not likely. But it happened because Romo, Bryant and Scandrick were hurt. They couldn't overcome Romo especially.
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engaged in insulting discussion..Every conversation is as civil as it gets, whether we happen to agree or not on a particular topic. There should be more like him
He's a likeable poster. Like you.
Back atcha buddy..
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In comment 13045139 Gman11 said:
Quote:
"Pythagorean win expectancy" deserves an eye roll.
Why the eye roll?
Because it's another let's take everything and fit it into a formula bullshit. These are people playing the game and not everything fits into their nice little formulas and Excel spreadsheets. If everything fell neatly into their little formulas there would never be any upsets, good players would never have bad games and mediocre players would never have good games. It's all a crock of shit, except if it coincides with your opinion, then it's brilliant analysis.
This is such basic misunderstanding of statistics it's mind boggling. By your logic that means that no one should ever win the lottery since the odds are ridiculously low. Statistics just state who is more likely to win and play well not who will win or play well for sure.