NFT: Mets vs Rockies Game 1, Degrom Day!

Is it risky to trade Cheech IMO. The guy has the range for SS and the arm strength. His offense is profiling like a pure star there if he can figure out the mental gaffes. Man, would it sting to see him go on to become the next Xander Boegarts. On top of that TDA might actually be better than Lucroy over the next few years and is under more control and is younger. Yikes.

Not sure how I'd feel. Guess it helps us in the short term a little.

We now know it was nixed because Milwaukee wouldn't drop their price. Sandy would have still traded for Gomez if they had.

TdA packing in a trade. I mean, face it, he is really nothing special. At some point you need to stop talking about "potential". The guy is a china doll and has proved absolutely nothing. This is his fourth season with the Mets and I'd have to say that he's a pretty big disappointment. He's going to be 28 next season. Not really sure I see much improvement to what he is...which is a pretty mediocre ballplayer. If we can ship him out for a real catcher, I'd be all for it.

He's been injured a lot. I get it. I dont think you're really dreaming on potential anymore though. TDA OPSed over .800 last year and was a huge component of our postseason push. As for this season, it's still a pretty small sample, but he's been hitting since he's been back.

Lucroy has had three healthy seasons in MLB himself and is 31. He also only has one year left on his deal.

I still would feel like TDA is the best bet to be a solution for a few years here.

That being said, I too would swap TDA for Lucroy. No problem there. It's how much we would be adding to that that has me worried.

Heyman is now saying a mystery team has gotten involved and the Mets are behind anyway so who knows.

JULY 28, 7:11pm: The Mets are believed to be �behind� other organizations in pursuit of Lucroy, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. But it�s still a �fluid� pursuit for one of the best-available players this summer.

Heyman adds that there�s a mystery team involved. There�s another layer of intrigue here, perhaps, as that could be another report on a solitary, unidentified trying organization � or it may represent the second such unknown entrant to the sweepstakes. (See Crasnick�s report referenced below.)

4:29pm: The Brewers have �re-engaged� with the Mets on Lucroy after New York�s initial offer was reportedly deemed light, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). That doesn�t mean that the sides are anywhere close to a deal, he cautions, but it seems at least that there�s more to discuss.

Adam Rubin ✔@AdamRubinESPN
Believe there is a DL candidate with the Mets that's neither Cespedes nor Reyes. Sounds like an outfielder, though.

Familia to close in the postseason anymore.. He's just too erratic.

is reporting Will Smith to the Mets. WTF is going on. They also reported the Beltran deal. No other confirmation anywhere.

Rhett Bollinger ✔@RhettBollinger
Mystery solved. No trades. It was scrolling potential trade partners based on this article: http://atmlb.com/2aC4oAY https://twitter.com/TwinkieTown/status/758827592044589056 �

saying Lagares to DL

DL.

is going to the DL

?

Devin Lintao
‏@DevinLintaoNY
Hearing that Lucroy deal with #Mets is being held because the team wants to add Jeffress/Smith to the deal as well, can't agree on names.

In comment 13049091 sphinx said:

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?

And the one RH seemingly banged up and is day to day?

.

Caseytheghost @stengelsghost
@DevinLintaoNY @loshernandez29 so would you say that Lucroy to the mets is more likely than not?
Follow
Devin Lintao @DevinLintaoNY
@stengelsghost @loshernandez29 Yes, I'd be willing to go that far, pieces are there in place, Sandy offers low, MIL asking more. > No Budge.

NICE!

James Wagner ✔@ByJamesWagner
Juan Lagares (who has played w/ sprained thumb) likely DL bound & to see doc Fri., per source. @AdamRubinESPN 1st & said surgery possible.

to lose our best CF.

De Aza is becoming irresplaceable now. Good thing he is heating up.

In comment 13049108 spike said:

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to lose our best CF. De Aza is becoming irresplaceable now. Good thing he is heating up.

Yup. Thank GOD we have him.

Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Posenthal)
1 hour ago - View on Twitter
Source: #Mets acquire Jonathan Lucroy and Jeremy Jeffress from #Brewers in exchange for Travis d'Arnaud, Juan Lagares, and Thomas Szapucki.

Szapucki is in this deal? FUCK.

Ken Posenthal.. fake account. Cmon man.

I would have rather traded Cecchini or even Smith than Szapucki. 20 year old throws high 90's with a curve and CU.

for a 31 year old catcher having a down year.

don't like this at all.

Ken Posenthal. Love twitter.

if Shecky has anything to say right now. lol

Unless we are talking about his defense. "Average Lucroy" is a wRC+ 111 hitter. He's sitting around 120.

Offensively he is Ben Zobrist. For their careers they have both been very hard to strike out, Zobrist walks a little bit more and Lucroy hits for a slightly higher average, their stats are almost exactly the same this year. As we learned last year, that kind of player is fully capable of dominating in the postseason - even without going on an unexpected homerun binge like Murphy.

Plus he's signed next year for like $5M and is a 5 full years younger (though catchers usually break down earlier than others). I don't want to give up Wheeler, Smith or Rosario. Cecchini would hurt but we'd probably have to do it.

of Lucroy's BABIP. It's the highest of his career. It does seem like he is selling out for a little more power to hide the fact that he's making less contact (ie already started his decline most likely)

Ugh.

Matt Ehalt @MattEhalt
Apparently Brewers in stage of trying to get teams' best/*final offers (<96 hours left). Last I heard they wanted d'Arnaud in any deal.

Remember Beltran the year before we got Delgado? Other than Braun there's pretty much nothing in the Milwaukee lineup and he's been hitting 4th behind Braun all year. With Chris Carter (hitting .219 with 130 k's) behind him he's still hitting .300, his power is up, and he's striking out more - which certainly supports the "selling out for power" argument. Put him 3rd behind Granderson/Reyes and ahead of Cespedes and I think he's getting a lot of big hits.

I just hate giving up the farm for a very "win now" short term fix.

Lucroy's home/road splits are a little scary too. He hits MUCH better in Milwaukee.

In the least his BABIP likely puts him right at his career average of a wRC+ of 111. That's certainly great for a catcher but can TDA give us that? I think it's likely after what he showed last year.

This one is a tough one. I really wanted Cespedes at last year's deadline. Plugged a huge hole and was a clear difference maker. I dont know....

despite any similarities in the numbers it's extremely unlikely TdA gains enough consistency to become a 3-4-5 hitter in the middle of this season. On the scale of probabilities I'd say it's at least twice as likely he breaks his collarbone in a cab.

Could be right. But it is the small upgrade this year worth TDA developing and becoming clearly better the next three years? And what if players like Cheech and Smith are going the other way?

I just feel ickey all over about this. Of course I'll get on board if it happens though. Just hope the package isn't too big.

and I don't consider it a minor upgrade. We've gotten the 4th least amount of production from our catchers this year, we'd be moving up to 2nd or 3rd most probably. That's not a small upgrade.

I agree about the prospects going the other way though. Losing either Smith or Cecchini would hurt. I'd far prefer trading Nimmo or Herrera.

when TDA was out for two months. Obviously, Plawecki brought that WAY down. TDA has been league average-ish since he's been back (100) with potential for more (last year 130s). Lucroy is a 111 hitter (yeah its 121 but his BABIP tells me he's probably the same guy). I consider that a minor upgrade offensively.

but I'll bite. In almost 1000 ABs TdA's career wRC+ is 103. His career batting average is .245 (exactly what he's hitting right now). He's 27 years old, at some point he has to start producing for more than a month at a time.

Also since he broke out in 2012, Lucory's average wRC+ is significantly higher than 111. The straight average of the 5 years listed below is 119, and the actual weighted average is likely over 120 since he only played in 100 games last year.

2012 - 135
2013 - 116
2014 - 132 - all star and 4th in MVP voting
2015 - 93
2016 - 121 - all star

is better than D'Arnaud this year, and has hit better than D'Ardaud throughout his career. He's also a superb defensive catcher. He makes the Mets better both in 2016 and 2017.

I think the Mets should put a good offer together, but not go overboard. D'Arnaud and Smith (if they throw in their reliever who is cost controlled for another 3+ years) might be the max I'm willing to go. Rosario and Conforto (Brewers apparently asked for both) I wouldn't trade straight up for Lucroy.

His numbers arent better than Verretts

In comment 13049265 spike said:

Quote:

His numbers arent better than Verretts

Wow, they gave away Naylor, who I LOVE!!!!!

For cheap. Seems like a lot. Goes to show how valuable starting pitching is. We are lucky to even have guys like Verrett and Gilmartin who can fill in.

In comment 13049150 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

but I'll bite. In almost 1000 ABs TdA's career wRC+ is 103. His career batting average is .245 (exactly what he's hitting right now). He's 27 years old, at some point he has to start producing for more than a month at a time. Also since he broke out in 2012, Lucory's average wRC+ is significantly higher than 111. The straight average of the 5 years listed below is 119, and the actual weighted average is likely over 120 since he only played in 100 games last year. 2012 - 135 2013 - 116 2014 - 132 - all star and 4th in MVP voting 2015 - 93 2016 - 121 - all star

Well just because you think it's stupid, doesn't make it so. I'm still waiting for you to show me something better that encompasses more. Basically, all you did was show me Lucroy has a bigger sample and both of their top end years are similar.

doesn't just go to the league leader in wRC+ every year. That's why there's a batting champion and the triple crown is a significant and rare achievement. You dumbing everying down to 1 stat is the football equivalent of saying Eli Manning is worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick because he had a lower QBR. Even the best stats can be misleading in a vacuum.

Also in his best year (last year) TdA only played in 67 games - so saying their "best seasons are comparable" is nonsense. Lucroy's best season he was 4th in the MVP voting. TdA has never even sniffed 4th in the all star voting at his own position. TdA has flashed comparable potential, but at this point he is Jared Saltalamachia until proven otherwise. Lucroy on the other hand is easily one of the top 2-3 players at his position.

"The Mets have chatted with the Pirates about a possible Jon Niese return, SB Nation�s Chris Cotillo tweets. New York has previously been suggested to have some interest in the lefty, who was dealt from New York to Pittsburgh over the winter. As before, though, the Mets don�t appear to be prioritizing starting pitching, given that the club has reasonable back-of-the-rotation options at hand with Zack Wheeler still working toward a return"


Can we send Walker back?
Niese? - ( New Window )

No idea where we'd play him (1B maybe if we're concerned about Duda? he's played 3 games there in his career). Doesn't seem like there's a match there at all unless maybe we're planning to send Granderson the other way? But then we'd still have 3 starting caliber COF'ers who can't or don't want to be moved to CF.

In comment 13049740 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

doesn't just go to the league leader in wRC+ every year. That's why there's a batting champion and the triple crown is a significant and rare achievement. You dumbing everying down to 1 stat is the football equivalent of saying Eli Manning is worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick because he had a lower QBR. Even the best stats can be misleading in a vacuum. Also in his best year (last year) TdA only played in 67 games - so saying their "best seasons are comparable" is nonsense. Lucroy's best season he was 4th in the MVP voting. TdA has never even sniffed 4th in the all star voting at his own position. TdA has flashed comparable potential, but at this point he is Jared Saltalamachia until proven otherwise. Lucroy on the other hand is easily one of the top 2-3 players at his position.

Holy shit dude. It isn't even remotely the same thing as QBR. lol. Bill James called OPS the truest measure of a players offensive production in the fucking 1970s!! Time magazine called James one of the most influential people in the world but I suppose Eric on LI knows more than Bill James?? Since the 1970s, we have taken OPS and made it even better. We now have a way to use OPS and adjust for park factors, leagues, and even time periods and we have even reduced it down to a nice easy formula. The object of the game if you are trying to create offense is to not make outs. How much damage you do while not making said outs is what it's all about. It isn't rocket science. Any second-grade child can figure out that batting average is an incomplete stat. A guy that is hitting .300 with zero home runs or extra base ability isn't as valuable as a .300 hitter who has 30 HR. Just give it up. Stop fighting it. Welcome to 2016.

As for your other points, do you even research anything before you type it? You know who was the league leader in wRC+ last year?? Bryce fucking Harper. You know what he did last year? Win the MV fucking P. You know who are the leaders now? Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, and David Ortiz. All freaking MVP candidates this year. You know who has the best team offense in baseball? The freaking Red Sox. You know who has the highest team wRC+ in baseball?? The freaking Red Sox.

I have no issue if you want to discuss other stats. Discuss whatever you want. Batting average, RBIs, what color socks players use on Tuesdays... I really dont care... But they are crumbs in comparison to something like wRC+ or OPS+ in terms of the overall pie.

I also have no doubt with Statcast being released to the public now something will come along that's even better, and even more refined. Its going to happen. Until then, this is what we got and this is what I use for a quick reference.

because for some reason I keep doing it. Next time i'll skip posting just look up wRC+ to save time.

In comment 13049819 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

because for some reason I keep doing it. Next time i'll skip posting just look up wRC+ to save time.

Haha. Tool.