How good can Sterling Shepard be year 1?

Get a hold of yourself and let the kid play one game first please..

if nothing else because he plays in the same games as OB, and there's only so many passes to go around. I wouldn't be shocked if he caught 60/800+ as a rookie.

But, his talent and upside is becoming obvious and he's ahead of Cruz at the moment.

is a little aggressive for me.

Amount of rookies with 1200 receiving yards over the past decade? 1.... Odell (in 12 games lol).

70/1000/8 might be more realistic, and even that means a lot of things would have to go right.

One ? I have with him is his pure explosiveness/speed. I have no doubt that he's going to be a very valuable possession receiver for us, but if he can also be a deep guy for us then our WR duo is going to be ridiculously versatile.

However, if McAdoo distributes the ball around as much as I think he might, (Vereen, TEs) then the numbers might be misleading once the regular season concludes. If that's the case, my focus would be on clutch receptions(moving the chains, TDs)

He's not OB-explosive but displays plenty of burst.

Teams will start off by double-teaming OBJ, and that will mean a LOT of balls coming Sheppard's way. He could end up with a ton of catches because of that. OTOH, I think once he makes the first couple of teams PAY for doubling OBJ, other teams will likely adjust their strategy. And that will likely be the biggest dividend for the offense as a whole. Keeping teams from doubling OBJ. How many games will that take? I'd say 2 will show the league it isn't a fluke. It wouldn't surprise me if he has 10+ catch games while OBJ is doubled. Once that calms down, I think you could easily see the kind of production the Giants got out Cruz, when Nicks was still a beast on the other side.

If the both he and OBJ stay healthy, I could conservatively see Sheppard easily getting 80-100 catches, over 1000 yards, and say 6-10 TDs. And that's if Cruz isn't in the mix.

Put it this way: OBJ/Sheppard SHOULD be even more productive than Nicks/Cruz was at it's best.

Shepard will have a nice rookie season in the 60-800 range....but his presence is going to open things up more for Odell. I think OBJ is going to have a monster year.

In comment 13065901 David B. said:

Quote:

Teams will start off by double-teaming OBJ, and that will mean a LOT of balls coming Sheppard's way. He could end up with a ton of catches because of that. OTOH, I think once he makes the first couple of teams PAY for doubling OBJ, other teams will likely adjust their strategy. And that will likely be the biggest dividend for the offense as a whole. Keeping teams from doubling OBJ. How many games will that take? I'd say 2 will show the league it isn't a fluke. It wouldn't surprise me if he has 10+ catch games while OBJ is doubled. Once that calms down, I think you could easily see the kind of production the Giants got out Cruz, when Nicks was still a beast on the other side. If the both he and OBJ stay healthy, I could conservatively see Sheppard easily getting 80-100 catches, over 1000 yards, and say 6-10 TDs. And that's if Cruz isn't in the mix. Put it this way: OBJ/Sheppard SHOULD be even more productive than Nicks/Cruz was at it's best.

Should? That's bold..Could? Perhaps..Nicks and Cruz had a ginormous year stat and (most importantly) clutch-wise..And yes, I'd be thrilled if you were correct here

I mean, look at what he's been doing without another receiving threat to draw coverage. I wouldn't be surprised to see 110 catches and 1700 yards, something along those lines.

.....the better we are as a TEAM.
.....the better S. Shepard will be as a player.

There are many factors that go into how good a player's season may be OR not be including health, QB play, learning curve, etc.

I think we struck GOLD with our first five draft picks this year. All five of them may be starter's by season's end, those last 3-4 or so games where rookies begin to play more and more and add a few new wrinkles to an offense and a defense.

I see Shepard's first 3 or so games being "learning" experiences where he'll be the slot guy and maybe go deep early to keep defenses honest. Eli has that superb deep ball and Dallas and NO don't have great pass rushes - at least not on paper.

OBJ 110 - 1700 - 15 (16 games, Eli healthy)
Cruz 60 - 750 - 6
Shepard 60 - 750 - 6
Davis 25 - 350 - 2

If the Giant wideouts produced those kinds of numbers we'd all be quite happy. Shepard's numbers for a first year, round #2 WR would be superb.

if he works hard and doesn't get a serious injury. Randle had 57/800/8 and I think that's Shepards floor as far as catches and yards (TD's is anyone's guess).

We know he's more athletic than Randle which bodes well for getting open and YAC. I can only assume he will be more focused and more dedicated to his craft as well (i think its is a guarantee but I'll stick with assume for now). The sky is really the limit and playing next to Odell is huge.

too but to say his floor is 800 years is crazy. Go back the last 15 years and find how many 2nd rounders to 800 yards their rookie year.

He very well may do better but it's not crazy to think he does less than Randle did.

What I care about is the kid catching a seven yard pass when it's 3rd and six. Just play smart and the numbers will be there. Be an asset, all day, every day, not a liability.

1) I just don't see how teams are gonna choose to "back off" doubling Odell. It isn't just because of Odell, it's Eli. He reads single coverage vs OBJ with no over the top help he's chucking it that way 9/10 times, and letting OBJ go get it. That's like tossing a frisbee to a champion Border Collie... Seriously yeah teams don't give OTT help on OBJ virtually all the time Greg's crazy #s for Odell are def in reach...

2) The more I've heard the camp reports and looked back at Shepard's highlights I agree with JonC's comment, which matches Odell's assessment of Sterling. He's explosive, and jitterbuggy, and also strong enough and low enough to the ground to run through tackles - at least from DBs. And since form tackling has gone to shit in today's NFL as well, in large part, I imagine SS getting a lot of RAC yardage. He's nothing like RR in that department and much more like the young Cruz - but with more reliable hands than VC..


3) Agree with Fiddy too though, one thing that could hold back Sterling's and Odell's stats accumulation is Mac calling plays that purposely spread the ball around. It's not as if the team doesn't have good receiving RBs and even our misfit TE crew are capable receivers, they just don't block all that well.
Anyway who'd complain if the"spread the ball around" approach resulted in less gaudy stats for the WRs but more Wins?

Fiddy, IMPORTANT catches were Shepard's raison d'être at Oklahoma, no reason for that to stop now. And he did it mostly as a senior, when opposing Ds knew he was THE GUY for Oklahoma. Now he's clearly #2 at best...

Well IF we can agree that OBJ is a better/more productive WR than Nicks was in his prime (is that a reach?), and IF Sheppard is AS GOOD AS Cruz was in his prime (unknown, but that's the recurring comparison) then the OBJ/SS duo actually WOULD --in theory-- be better than the HN/VC duo. i.e OBJ>HN + SS=VC. As Sheppard is unproven, I didn't say "would" -- I said "should," and it's contingent on both health and Sheppard's ability to play as well as Cruz in his prime. Both are big IFs.

The other part of this is what happens if Victor Cruz comes back and is an effective 3rd WR. If they ALL play and Eli spreads the ball around, all of their individual numbers could be down somewhat, but presumably, they'd be a better offense.

is the Giants won loss record by January. Monster year? How about OBJ puts up similar stats to last year while helping the Giants win 11 games this season? That to me is a monster year. Last year was window dressing.

In comment 13066106 Klaatu said:

Quote:

What I care about is the kid catching a seven yard pass when it's 3rd and six. Just play smart and the numbers will be there. Be an asset, all day, every day, not a liability.

Great post.

In comment 13066131 Old Dirty Beckham said:

Quote:

In comment 13066106 Klaatu said: Quote: What I care about is the kid catching a seven yard pass when it's 3rd and six. Just play smart and the numbers will be there. Be an asset, all day, every day, not a liability. Great post.

Thanks. This numbers stuff reminds me of the folks on TV talking fantasy football. I hate fantasy football.

I think he'll be very productive. I think some of the projections are probably a little too aggressive but if he plays 16 games I feel pretty confident that he'll be the 2nd most reliable WR on this team pretty quickly.

The bond between he and OBJ is cool. I like that Odell is really taking him under his wing and pushing him to be as good as he can be. I think they're going to be a really great duo to watch.

In comment 13066095 Old Dirty Beckham said:

Quote:

too but to say his floor is 800 years is crazy. Go back the last 15 years and find how many 2nd rounders to 800 yards their rookie year. He very well may do better but it's not crazy to think he does less than Randle did.

The whole "look at the history of 2nd round WRs" is lame. For a few reasons, but I'll give you one theoretical one to start with: that's a stats based argument and a viable response only to the question (posed before the draft) "What are the odds a WR selected in round 2 this draft will catch x passes for y yards?"

We now have a pretty good idea of who and what Shepard is, so the stats argument is irrelevant. Furthermore, a good stats argument would have to start with "how many 2nd round WRs (with Shepard's college production in a similar pro style system) came into the league and produced x catches for y yards when joining a team with an HOF QB in his prime and possibly the league's most dangerous WR playing opposite him?"

Above and beyond that, it certainly appears the Giants simply got lucky that Shepard was still on the board at 40. Luck is the best medicine of all in healing a club that struggled through some poor and unlucky drafts not too long ago.

Like we got lucky with OBJ at 12...

In comment 13066135 Klaatu said:

Quote:

In comment 13066131 Old Dirty Beckham said: Great post. Thanks. This numbers stuff reminds me of the folks on TV talking fantasy football. I hate fantasy football.

Get off my lawn, then.

and maturity in training camp. I think we need to see what he can do against other team starting CBS in pre-season first, but if I have to make a prediction nw, I would say something like 60-1100-7.

before: 1) we even see him in a preseason game and (more importantly, IMO) 2) we see Cruz in a preseason game. I posted this in yesterday's FF thread, but I think his final stats have a huge variance right now due to the uncertainty surrounding Cruz (if he'll play and how good he'll be).

Here's how I see some other positions playing out:
Beckham (mins if healthy): 90/1400/12
TEs: 75/800/6
RBs: 60/600/6

Which totals to 225/2800/24. If Eli goes for 4500 and 35 TDs you're looking at ~150 rec, 1700 yds and 11 TDs between the remaining WRs (Shepard, Cruz, Harris, Davis, etc), although I can easily see Beckham surpassing all of the #s above and cutting into these totals. So with that in mind, here's the range I think Shepard will finish in:

40-75 rec
600-900 yds
4-8 TDs

The healthier/better Cruz is, the lower Shepard's production. For example, if Cruz is finishing with 60/750/6, there's no way (IMO) that Shepard is also putting up 75/900/8.

In comment 13066165 BlueLou said:

Quote:

In comment 13066135 Klaatu said: Quote: In comment 13066131 Old Dirty Beckham said: Great post. Thanks. This numbers stuff reminds me of the folks on TV talking fantasy football. I hate fantasy football. Get off my lawn, then.

Okay. I predict it will take me 42 steps to get off your lawn, which is about 130-feet long, and I should be able to knock down about three garden gnomes on the way. Should take me about 12 minutes, give or a take a minute.

ok
Link - ( New Window )

800 yards, 6 TDs.

Don't let what Beckham did tilt the expectations unrealistic.

Between OBJ, Cruz, and the Shep we're looking at 275 receptions for 4,000 yards 36 TD....

a very fine poster, but I hate threads like this because I'm superstitious and don't want to jinx him. He seems to be a gem, especially where Giants were able to draft him, yet I worry, the more he plays in the slot, he's going to take some blind side shots, and he's had some history.

Let him stay under the radar, now and on game day, and let him shine.

In comment 13066219 Milton said:

Quote:

Between OBJ, Cruz, and the Shep we're looking at 275 receptions for 4,000 yards 36 TD....

Too conservative. That's only 14.5 yards per catch. If they can't average at least ten yards better than that I'll be hugely disappointed.

In comment 13066175 Simms11 said:

Quote:

and maturity in training camp. I think we need to see what he can do against other team starting CBS in pre-season first, but if I have to make a prediction nw, I would say something like 60-1100-7.

So 18 yards per catch?

SS also has excellent hips, a low center of gravity, and excellent body control. Watch him plant the foot and explode, or run after the catch where he looks like a tailback, or how he smoothly changes direction and loses his cover man. Very instinctive football player, I recall his BBI fans pre-draft were on him very early.

about Shepard. I envision him and dream of him being a quicker, faster Wes Walker (in his prime of course) with the Patriots who gave teams fits.

I know I should temper my expectations, but I can't help myself. I think he will open up the offense that makes everyone else even more effective if he's on the field

In comment 13066235 JonC said:

Quote:

...also has excellent hips, a low center of gravity, and excellent body control.

Hmmm...

In comment 13066095 Old Dirty Beckham said:

Quote:

too but to say his floor is 800 years is crazy. Go back the last 15 years and find how many 2nd rounders to 800 yards their rookie year. He very well may do better but it's not crazy to think he does less than Randle did.

I simply disagree. Don't care about historicals and I prefaced by saying if he's healthy. Is 50 yards per game really that crazy? Unless Cruz comes back and plays close to a full season, who else is getting the targets that Odell doesnt?

Using NFL historicals is kinda worthless. This is a new era and Eli is locked in at 4,000+ yards; where are they all going?

4 catches and 50 yards a game i think is incredibly reasonable.

And yeah, stats don't matter just get the job done, blah blah blah, but what's the fun in that before the games start?

in camp before -- that included OBJ who never really was part of camp as a rookie

but his route running, hands, pure body moves and instinct is outstanding -- the sky is the limit as far as I can see

He could break OBJs rookie record - he has 4 more games to do it with - he's a different kind of talent than OBJ - I love how he goes and gets the ball and he's very crisp, smooth, and exudes confidence - he doesn't go for spectacular -- he goes for sound fundamentals. If anything -- his fundamentals are way more solid than OBJs were as a rookie, and his leap and hands are extraordinary.

when - do you see that in a rookie WR ???

Beckham, Evans, Watkins, Benjamin, Mathews all eclipse 800 yards. Cooks was hurt but would have as well. Jon Brown was buried on the depth chart and still caught 48 for 700. Landry had 70+ catches and just missed 800 yards.

2015 had Cooper and Snead, possibly others close.

Point is there's plenty of precedence and there's plenty to go around. This is a passing league and we will be a passing offense. He should be taking this opportunity by the balls.

different than the 1200 yard prediction in the OP.

In comment 13066261 UConn4523 said:

Quote:

And yeah, stats don't matter just get the job done, blah blah blah, but what's the fun in that before the games start?

This is not my idea of fun!

Kung Fu!!!!

Odell is Ricky Bobby of course.

In comment 13066289 gidiefor said:

Quote:

Kung Fu!!!!

Nope. Lone Wolf McQuade.

Ummm...Chuck Norris would like to have a word with you.

In comment 13066235 JonC said:

Quote:

SS also has excellent hips, a low center of gravity, and excellent body control. Watch him plant the foot and explode, or run after the catch where he looks like a tailback, or how he smoothly changes direction and loses his cover man. Very instinctive football player, I recall his BBI fans pre-draft were on him very early.

Jon, all that you note is exactly the same things I see more and more clearly as I rewatch his highlights. He has truly a ton of G-d given talent. The icing on the cake is the other traits he has like OBJ and Cruz both. Apparently tireless and dedicated professional work ethic well beyond his age, and I would add relentlessness. He is on a life long mission to honor his father, to do do his father and family proud (and his "family" includes Oklahoma University, at least their FB program), and quite frankly that's a motivator I cannot even begin to fathom.

I would bet he has some games where he's very quiet through 3 quarters, and then does some things great to contribute to a W. So long as our D doesn't cough the points right back this year.

in an athletic (possibly electric) student of the game than I am, or really ever was, on Randle's abilities.

[[[[ KUNG FU !!! ]]]]

the dice on Jaylon Smith rather than grab Shepard a half dozen slots before us. He'd be awesome opposite Dez and with Romo tossing to him behind that monster OL.

Sometimes the damn draft comes down to blind ass luck re who is available at your slot.

For that matter I'm thankful they didn't pick Jack at their slot...

In comment 13066301 UConn4523 said:

Quote:

in an athletic (possibly electric) student of the game than I am, or really ever was, on Randle's abilities.

I can't find it in the archives, and I can't get it from the original source because I'm no longer a member, but I posted Corey Chavous' analysis of Rueben Randle from DraftNasty.com, and it was dead on (and pretty much the opposite of what Reese & Co. said abut him after the draft, being NFL ready, running good routes, etc.).

If Cruz isn't healthy, he likely will be our clear cut #2 WR. And with all the attention OBJ is going to get, he is going to get some great single coverage opportunities.

The kid is coming in very polished as a route runner and this is a much simpler offense than it's predecessor. This offense is likely going to throw a bunch. He has a chance to get better than Reuben's first year in the WCO of 900 yds if fully healthy.

you decide to pitch a tent?


The "Miller" model at that?



Anytime bro I could use the laffs.


But why is that blonde a pic and not a gif?

as a guy who was very raw in his route running and needed time (and it turns out, a brain transplant as well) to develop his route running.

Pretty sure, without checking it.

And the key word in JonC's post is "hips."

In comment 13066318 Klaatu said:

Quote:

In comment 13066301 UConn4523 said: Quote: in an athletic (possibly electric) student of the game than I am, or really ever was, on Randle's abilities. I can't find it in the archives, and I can't get it from the original source because I'm no longer a member, but I posted Corey Chavous' analysis of Rueben Randle from DraftNasty.com, and it was dead on (and pretty much the opposite of what Reese & Co. said abut him after the draft, being NFL ready, running good routes, etc.).

I'm sure you can find similar reports for any number of NFL flame outs (tons in the NBA for that matter).

What the GM says means little to me. They aren't going to say the guy wasn't their target, they aren't going to say a guy can't play like they thought he would, etc etc etc. Good or bad, i'm generally not really too concerned with what Reese or TC said and likely won't with McAdoo either.

I liked Randles size and the program he came from. That turned out to not matter at all. Doesn't mean that every draft report is wrong or that you shouldn't get excited for a new player. Its quite possible the reports were accurate but Randle just stopped caring, didn't want to work hard at this level, etc. Who knows.

It was a lot more than just questioning his football skills. It was his attitude, work ethic, "want to," etc.

We Powe/ King/Lewis make the team having Donnell back and the addition of Will Johnson .
There is enough there to also keep the safeties honest
and Improve the run game .
Shepard could easily have 60-800-8Td's

In comment 13066363 Klaatu said:

Quote:

It was a lot more than just questioning his football skills. It was his attitude, work ethic, "want to," etc.

I honestly have no idea. But we took a chance on Marvin Austin and all his troubles too because the talent was supposed to be worth the hassle. Its a crapshoot sometimes.

In comment 13066416 UConn4523 said:

Quote:

In comment 13066363 Klaatu said: Quote: It was a lot more than just questioning his football skills. It was his attitude, work ethic, "want to," etc. I honestly have no idea. But we took a chance on Marvin Austin and all his troubles too because the talent was supposed to be worth the hassle. Its a crapshoot sometimes.

Full disclosure: The WR I really liked that year was A.J. Jenkins.

In comment 13066304 gidiefor said:

Quote:

[[[[ KUNG FU !!! ]]]]

Lone Wolf McQuade.

I take every bone you have -- and I only break the ones I need to

Kung Fu!

LONE WOLF McQUADE!

going to set a Giants record for completions this season. And Shepard is going to be a big beneficiary. Too bad they don't have that dominant 3rd wideout that would really free up Beckham. Really pisses me off that whatever Beckham/Shepard do this year will be a mere shadow of their true potential had the Giants added a legitimate 3rd threat to the mix.

But to Lou's point, with no great #3, Beckham is going to draw all the attention and it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see Shepard lead the team in catches and reception yardage.

to be even better, if that's possible.

is very feasible based on early reactions and dropoff in talent with remaining WR and TE depth charts.

Said it before....he's gonna' light em' up.

will be a star. As long as he stays healthy. I am always concerned with smaller receivers and hold my breath everytime OBJ goes over the middle. It will be the same with #87.

no one was scared of Randle.

Shepard isn't going to lead the team in catches this year unless Beckham misses significant time. Let's not go overboard.

His size/speed ratio is straight up unimpressive. He's small and he doesn't have that 6th gear of a big-time deep threat. And he's a rookie.

I really really like him too and I totally expect he'll be an upgrade to Randle, especially in the YAC aspect of the game. But the way some of you guys are talking it's like you expect him to be another Odell, which is a joke.

/Devilsadvocate

catch with Eli for the past 5 years...

(1) I seriously believe Manning is going to set a Giants passing record this year under this system ... so there are going to be a TON of balls being thrown

(2) I think Beckham is the best talent in a Giants uniform since LT. Best WR in the league and in Giants history. A special talent.

Combine those two factors and the #2 WR is going to get a ton of balls thrown his way. And presumably any 1st round WR or top 10 2nd round pick is presumably going to have some raw talent - and I'd pick anyone of them to be catching a TON of balls if they played with Manning and Beckham in this system in 2016. Shepard is merely the recipient of a great opportunity. So, while I like what I've heard about Shepard, my prediction of his great year is more about his situation (and my assumption any 1st round or top 10 2nd round pick is going to have top level skills).

In comment 13066932 baadbill said:

Quote:

(1) I seriously believe Manning is going to set a Giants passing record this year under this system ... so there are going to be a TON of balls being thrown (2) I think Beckham is the best talent in a Giants uniform since LT. Best WR in the league and in Giants history. A special talent. Combine those two factors and the #2 WR is going to get a ton of balls thrown his way. And presumably any 1st round WR or top 10 2nd round pick is presumably going to have some raw talent - and I'd pick anyone of them to be catching a TON of balls if they played with Manning and Beckham in this system in 2016. Shepard is merely the recipient of a great opportunity. So, while I like what I've heard about Shepard, my prediction of his great year is more about his situation (and my assumption any 1st round or top 10 2nd round pick is going to have top level skills).

Good post. Clearly, all reports indicate that S. Shepard can run a route and is hungry to learn. He works hard and will be out there game 1. Since Cruz doesn't look like (yet, I pray) he's a #2 WR anymore, we have to pray Shepard doesn't have a long rookie learning curve.

Many a player looks awesome in a camp and when the real games start they look "average" - at least for awhile, as they learn and get the nuances of NFL routes, reads, options, and so forth down. Shepard may be a guy like OBJ who just knows the game coming out of the gates.

And I've predicted Eli has 5,000 yards, 45 TD's and only 9 interceptions in this offense. Of course this is BEST CASE SCENARIO stuff done just for fun, it is a way of me saying I think Eli breaks every Giants record for passing this year: Yards, TD's, rating. I'm praying he has such a good year that he is finally All-PRO (does Cam Newton get whacked this year running like that and miss time? Otherwise, he will be hard to beat out) and such.

Go Giants!

and the running game improved a bit so Eli DOESN'T HAVE TO BREAK every single season passing record known to man... for the team to win the division.

In comment 13067185 BlueLou said:

Quote:

and the running game improved a bit so Eli DOESN'T HAVE TO BREAK every single season passing record known to man... for the team to win the division.

I don't predict Eli breaks Giant's passing records this year because of weaknesses in the running game but because (1) McAdoo's system focuses upon throwing the ball ; and (2) Beckham, Shepard, Vareen, Perkins, and Tye as targets.

Like you, I worry about the OL defeating the run game - but the lack of a running game is likely to kill the passing game and the reason Manning doesn't set passing records, not the reason he does.

If you look at Eli in this system (2 years) he has avg 609 attempts and 383 completions:

WR's: 368 att 224 comp

TE's 124 att 86 comp

RB's 119 att 77 comp

If Beckham is going to get 100 catches, how is Shepard getting 80. The Giants 3rd WR has been almost identical the last 2 years 57 att - 36 catches

I don't see Eli attempting more passes, OBJ getting less or the Giants offense suddenly not using the RB or TE in passing game.

Good post and info. Only way catches go up is:
1. Giants offense gets more snaps per game as the result of converting more third downs - and scores more points per game.
2. Completion percentage goes up.

I expect both of the above to happen. But, if they do, what does that translate into? I don't know. I'm not enough of a math wizard (or too lazy to try) to figure out the impact.

But, I would not be surprised to see Beckham's numbers go down as he is forced by other teams strategy to be a decoy. Teams are going to approach the Giants in 2016 with the strategy of: "Beckham is NOT going to beat us. If the Giants win, it will have to be someone else, but we are taking Beckham out of the equation - and we've created special zone and man defenses just to stop Beckham."

That is what I expect. I am sure it is what Beckham and the Giants expect. And if you devote your entire defense to stop one guy, you can do it - but you completely expose yourself elsewhere (hello Mr. Shepard).

#2 WR, not 3.

...I also believe the "Rookie Wall" is an actual thing. If Shepard has as big an impact as we're hoping he will, you can expect defensive coordinators to target him for a lot of contact when he comes across the middle. Lining up frequently in the slot, quick slants and similar patterns figure to be a big part of his job. He will take a pounding, far beyond anything he's used to, over a much longer season. So it won't be a surprise if his production tails off after Thanksgiving, or if he misses some time.

As for stats, a successful rookie season for Shepard might resemble Jarvis Landry more than Odell Beckham. That's no knock on Shepard - it's just a function of his likely role in this offense. Landry has caught close to 194 passes in two years (seven more than Beckham), but his YPC average of 10 is a more realistic benchmark than Beckham's 14.7, let alone some of the gaudier numbers being thrown around here. Wes Welker averaged 11 yards over his career; most years he was around 10.5.

WRs total 230 receptions
1) OBJ 100
2) Shepard 80
3) all other WR 50
4) TEs total 75
5) RB & FB total 75

53% of all reception go to the TE, RB, 3rd/4th WRs - enough to keep D's guessing.

47% of receptions go to the team's true playmakers. Maybe not enough, actually.

Playing largely from the slot, Cruz averaged 18.7 YPC, in part because of the attention paid to ascending star Hakeem Nicks (a parallel to Beckham circa 2016).

Personally, I have a hard time seeing Cruz's 2011 season as a precedent for anything. There were too many flukish plays where bad DBs took terrible angles. Still, the similarities are there.

He's in a great situation. He'll get a lot of looks and targets. Kid can get open. He'll catch 100 balls.

In comment 13067353 BlueLou said:

Quote:

WRs total 230 receptions 1) OBJ 100 2) Shepard 80 3) all other WR 50 4) TEs total 75 5) RB & FB total 75 53% of all reception go to the TE, RB, 3rd/4th WRs - enough to keep D's guessing. 47% of receptions go to the team's true playmakers. Maybe not enough, actually.

So here is how Shepard leads team in catches...

Giant's cruise this season to 12-4 record including several blowout victories. As a result, OBJ is taken off the field earlier in games and Shepard gets more targets down the stretch.

Shepard 91
OBJ 89

than 1200 yards. He's going to be a move the chains machine for us. But like someone mentioned above, I expect a YPC closer to 11-12 than 14-15+.

I just can't wait to see how much things open up for Odell. A full 16 games with Shepard by his side? It's moving.

is going to be an absolute beast between the 10-20 yards red zone. His shiftiness and work out of the slot with be very hard to guard. With OBJ getting a lot of double teams inside the 20, I can see SS getting 10+ TDs this year.

Shepard has an article posted on the Player's Tribune, which talks a bit about his life, motivation, and transition to NYC. He seems grounded and at least "says" all of the right things.

Making Them Proud - ( New Window )

In comment 13067482 Jimmy Googs said:

Quote:

In comment 13067353 BlueLou said: Quote: WRs total 230 receptions 1) OBJ 100 2) Shepard 80 3) all other WR 50 4) TEs total 75 5) RB & FB total 75 53% of all reception go to the TE, RB, 3rd/4th WRs - enough to keep D's guessing. 47% of receptions go to the team's true playmakers. Maybe not enough, actually. So here is how Shepard leads team in catches... Giant's cruise this season to 12-4 record including several blowout victories. As a result, OBJ is taken off the field earlier in games and Shepard gets more targets down the stretch. Shepard 91 OBJ 89

Hey there, love the idea of "Cruzing" to a 12-4 record but... good luck taking Odell off the field!

...before a guy has played a meaningful snap as a pro.

We'll have some actual info to conduct an intelligent conversation soon enough.