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The second-round draft pick has already missed an extra-point try and a pair of field-goal attempts for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, misfires he concedes "shouldn't happen" with a kicker widely praised as a generational talent. ... Every summer, the Colts sign a talented young kicker with a stronger leg than 20-year veteran Adam Vinatieri. Every summer, Vinatieri's uncanny, unwavering consistency wins out in training camp. "Kicking at this level is all about how you handle pressure," Vinatieri explained in an excellent 2007 New York Times article from Michael Lewis. "We're on an island; everyone is watching us. It's not like some play where only the coaches who can see the film can tell who screwed up. The difference between kickers is, can you do it when the lights are on?" ... While it's certainly premature to hang the undependable label on Aguayo, the sudden presence of his coterie of advisors captures the league's reluctance to invest early-round draft capital in a position that relies as much upon an elusive combination of innate traits and mental gymnastics as it does pure talent. There's no test at the NFL Scouting Combine capable of accurately predicting that the most highly regarded kicker to enter the draft in years would see his confidence dip before his first meaningful game. Aguayo will enjoy greater early-career latitude by dint of his pedigree and general manager Jason Licht's bold investment. Here's hoping he doesn't need that longer leash in football's most unforgiving profession. |
According to Pat Donovan of WDAE, Augayo missed two more in practice today, including “one of the worst practice shanks I’ve ever seen.”
And while the organization was proud of trading up to get the Florida State kicker in the second round, the locals have apparently already become skeptical. He’s already missed two field goals and an extra point in two preseason games. According to JoeBucsFan.com, “half the fans” at today’s joint practice with the Browns “seemed to have been heckling Aguayo.”
Not good times for Aguayo - ( New Window )
ya that is crazy shit.
I'm not worried about him. He'll be fine in a few weeks once he gets used to his holder and center. He's likely speeding up his approach and his timing is off.
Basically, the pool of kickers is for all intents and purposes homogenized. The difference between the best and worst is usually 10% or less. Spending a pick (and trading up to get him) for a player that is pretty much interchangable doesn't make much sense.
People are upset with signing Bullock, but look at it this way - his 81% conversion rate is 9 points behind the CAREER leader of 90% - Dan Bailey.
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what a monumentally poor decision it was to draft him.
I disagree. If he is a top tier kicker for 10 years or possibly longer, then it will have been a very wise investment. How many 2nd round picks end up out of the league after their rookie deal or even sooner?
You'd have to put equal value on a kicker and every other position for this to be legit, IMO. Unless he's doing something that no other kicker can do, is he more valuable than say half the kickers in the league? Outside of his lower salary, what's the upside that warrants a 2nd rounder?
Its a position you can play into your 40's, there's always kickers out there.
Blair Walsh had the most FG's made in 2015...6th round pick.
Then Gostkowski, 4th rounder (and still a pretty high pick).
Robbie Gould, undrafted
Justin Tucker, undrafted
Dan Bailey, undrafted
The list is endless.
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what a monumentally poor decision it was to draft him.
I disagree. If he is a top tier kicker for 10 years or possibly longer, then it will have been a very wise investment. How many 2nd round picks end up out of the league after their rookie deal or even sooner?
Longevity isn't all that relevant a consideration. When you draft a guy, you get his rights for 4 seasons at a defined cost. After that, you have to pay the market rate if you want to keep him.
4 years of a top-tier kicker is in no way worth a 2nd-round pick. At PK, the top tier isn't all that much more effective than the medium tier, and there are medium-tier guys hitting free agency every year. Plus, pre-NFL performance hasn't been shown to be especially predictive of NFL PK effectiveness.
Lee was the 32nd pick in a draft after one of the best collegiate careers ever. Couldn't adjust to not kicking off a tee,
Haji-Sheikh was Michigan's best PK in history and couldn't make the leap.
Before the move to the 35 yard line, a top K like Janikowski would get ~30% touchbacks and league average was well below 20%.
Josh Brown had 58 touchbacks in his first eight seasons. He had 37 last year alone (46 in 2014).
Going from all-world at FSU to the NFL can create a lot of issues.
Longevity isn't all that relevant a consideration. When you draft a guy, you get his rights for 4 seasons at a defined cost. After that, you have to pay the market rate if you want to keep him.
4 years of a top-tier kicker is in no way worth a 2nd-round pick. At PK, the top tier isn't all that much more effective than the medium tier, and there are medium-tier guys hitting free agency every year. Plus, pre-NFL performance hasn't been shown to be especially predictive of NFL PK effectiveness.
Yup, the biggest advantage of draft picks is that you get them for 4-5 years at a controlled price, which is below market value for top players. If you can get an elite player (or even a good starter) on a rookie deal, it frees up your cap space to fill other holes. For example, Beckham makes ~$1.5M this year compared to the other elite WRs which earn ~$15M. That's a huge benefit to the Giants.
With a K though, even if he quickly becomes an 'elite' K, you're really not saving much as the best Ks don't even get $4.5M per season.
That seemed to work out well. I wouldn't have taken this
guy in Rd. 2. even though I thought the was a heck of a
kicker at FSU. I think he is getting a bit carried away
with all these 'advisors' myself. That is too many voices.
Just relax, and kick the ball.
Sebastian Janikowski has had a terrific career too.
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The only exception is when the Raiders took Ray Guy in round one.
Sebastian Janikowski has had a terrific career too.
Yup, a player that would likely be thought of in the Vinatieri mold if the Raiders weren't a toilet bowl since 2002.
I'm just saying.. he's had a nice 15 year career now at least.
Link - ( New Window )
Superbowl winning kickers come in all calibers. I'd have to really look back on it (not going to) but i'm guessing there's some pretty average or below average kickers with SB rings.
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The only exception is when the Raiders took Ray Guy in round one.
Sebastian Janikowski has had a terrific career too.
Janikowski's missed a lot of big kicks in his career. Especially early on. Not worth it.
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Matt Bahr 6th round pick of Steelers in 1979. We were his 4th team. In 1990,there was no more clutch kicker than Bahr-"there will be no three-peat"!
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what a monumentally poor decision it was to draft him.
I disagree. If he is a top tier kicker for 10 years or possibly longer, then it will have been a very wise investment. How many 2nd round picks end up out of the league after their rookie deal or even sooner?
If the Giants used a pretty high second round pick on a kicker I'd lead the pitch fork brigade in running Reese out of town. And no one has defended Reese more than I have. A kicker ??? I didn't like using a 3rd on Maynard either.
Basically, the pool of kickers is for all intents and purposes homogenized. The difference between the best and worst is usually 10% or less. Spending a pick (and trading up to get him) for a player that is pretty much interchangable doesn't make much sense.
People are upset with signing Bullock, but look at it this way - his 81% conversion rate is 9 points behind the CAREER leader of 90% - Dan Bailey.
While 10% doesn't sound like much difference, to me I see that showing Bullock at 80% misses 2 kicks out or 10 or 1/5. Baily at 90% misses 1 out of 10. Over the course of the season that seems like more than 10% no? Or am I just twisting statistics?
According to Pat Donovan of WDAE, Augayo missed two more in practice today, including “one of the worst practice shanks I’ve ever seen.”
If I'm not mistaken Pat Donovan is our own 'LT=Lawrence Taylor'!
I haven't seen him post in quite a while. Plus he was missed last year when we planned out Tampa tailgate!
Not in my opinion. Janikowski had a huge leg. This kid was very good in college but not close in leg strength. Also it seemed to me that there was a lot more attention on Janikowski In college and he handled it. This is one their GM might be hearing about for a long time.
If a guy hits 80% of his kicks and another guy hits 90%, the difference is 10%.
If they both attempt 100 FG's, Bullock makes 80. Bailey 90.
I'm not sure what the question is.
Really? Who was? Tell who was the best kicker in college.
For his college career, he hit 88.5% of his kicks, BUT, last year he was only 21 of 26 or 80%.
More troubling is that over his career, he is only 50% on kicks over 40 yards. That's not going to cut it in the NFL. I can't imagine there weren't other kickers in the NCAA who beta that.
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While 10% doesn't sound like much difference, to me I see that showing Bullock at 80% misses 2 kicks out or 10 or 1/5. Baily at 90% misses 1 out of 10.
If a guy hits 80% of his kicks and another guy hits 90%, the difference is 10%.
If they both attempt 100 FG's, Bullock makes 80. Bailey 90.
I'm not sure what the question is.
Yeah you're right. I guess it is still 10%, Bullock would miss 1 extra kick in 10. Not trying to split hairs or be arguementive at all but you could also say he misses twice as many kicks. Same result, it's just interesting to me how you spin the way statistics sounds. I'm not argueing for or against the guy.
The best QB vs. the worst or the best RB vs. the worst has a much larger differential.
For the most part, you can replace a kicker and not see much change in the overall performance.
"This is hard! I am in a pickle!"