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NFT: Mets Minors 8/24/2016

DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 10:05 am
AAA- Below
AA- Lara
A+ Flexen
Columbia Church
BK TBD
Kingsport Humphreys
GCL TBD
DSL1 TBD
DSL2 TBD


AAA
Nimmo 0-4, 2 ks
Cecchini 1-4, K
Plawecki 0-3, K

AA
Stuart 2-4, BB, K, SB
Evans 1-4, BB, K
Rosario 3-5, 2 2b (Had been in a slump but is now 5 for his last 8 with 5 runs scored, 4 rbi, 1 sb over his last 2, which includes 2 doubles and a HR)
Smith 3-5, 2b (Monster month for @TheRealSmith22, OPS now up to 1.096 over his last 20 games, .966 over his last 36 #Mets)
Cruzado 1-3, BB, K
Knapp 9 innings 3 hits 1 run 2 walks 10 ks (Gem) 5 AA starts 2.70 era 33.1 innings 33 ks after only striking out 64 over 105.1 in St. Lucie. I need to see more but I liked Knapp coming out of college, thought he had backend upside, floundered in the lower levels more than I expected, sudden K spike is suspicious but worth watching)

A+
Kaczmarski 1-4, 2b, K
Thompson 0-3, K (Horrendous lately. 4 for his last 36 with 9 ks. Slugging .333 in St. Lucie, admittedly not big on this guy but if hes not hurt just just not very good)
Guillorme 1-3, 2b, K, SB

Columbia
Mazeika 0-5, 2 ks
Garcia 1-5
Winningham 2-5, HR, 2 ks
Canelon 7 innings 2 hits 0 runs 0 walks 5 ks

BK
Cone 0-4, BB
Carpio 1-5, 2b, K
Lindsay 0-3, 2 BB, 2 K (OB machine)
Tiberi 0-5
Paez 1-5
Dimino 1-4, 2b
Jacobson 6 innings 2 hits 0 er 0 walks 8 ks (has been fantastic in BK, had his head knocked in during limited time in Columbia)
Zanghi 1 perfect
Henry 2 innings 1 hit 0 runs 0 walks 2 ks
Atkins 1 inning 1 hit 0 runs 0 walks 2 ks

Kingsport1
Strom 0-4, K
Wolf 2-4, K
Walter 2-4, 2b, K
JMM 1-4, K
Maria 1-3, 2b
Scott Manea is now 0/16 after a 1/8 showing in the GCL so hes 1/24 to begin his career, poor guy)
Ramos 4 innings 7 hits 5 runs 2 walks 7 ks
Buchmann 1.2 innings 1 hit 3 runs 1 earned 3 BBs (23.1 professional innings 38 walks, yes 38)

Kingsport 2
Cespedes 3-5
Walter 2-5
Wolf 2-4, HR
JMM 1-2, 2b, 3 BB
Maria 2-5, 2b
Aybar 3-4, HR
Sixto 5 innings 7 hits 2 runs 2 walks 4 ks
B. Taylor 2 perfect 4 ks (2 previous appearances were clunkers, working his way back from TJ)


GCL
Sanchez 1-5
Lagrange 1-5
Hernandez 0-3, K

DSL1, 1
Moreno 2-5, K
Gimenez 0-3
Beracierta 2-4, BB, SB
Valdez 1-4, BB, K
Guerrero 1-4, K

DSL1, 2
Moreno 0-3
Gimenez 1-1
Beracierta 0-1, 2 BB
Valdez 2-3, 2b
Santana 6 innings 3 hits 1 run 4 walks 7 ks (Too good for this level but also WAY too old. Very weird hes in the DSL unless there is something up with his visa etc)

DSL2
W. Reyes 1-4, 3b
Valdez 1-4, K

DSL2, 2
Batista 4.2 innings 0 hits 0 runs 3 walks 6 ks
Chourio 0.1 innings 0 hits 0 runs 1 walk 0 ks
Smith is 2nd youngest player in league & top of almost every stat  
Eric on Li : 8/24/2016 10:29 am : link
it's pretty much a forgone conclusion he's going to put up huge numbers in Vegas so I'd imagine he will be pushing for a promotion to the big leagues sometime next year. Between that and probably trying 1 of our COFers at 1B in the offseason/ST I think Duda has probably played his last game as a Met.
Duda might get a 1 year contract  
spike : 8/24/2016 10:31 am : link
If he can be had cheaply, after a disappointing season. Smith should be super 2'ed.
Duda has 1 more ARB year left, I don't think there's a place for him  
Eric on Li : 8/24/2016 10:33 am : link
if Cespedes is back though.

Also, I guess it's not entirely a foregone conclusion that Smith puts up huge numbers in Vegas if we change AAA affiliates.
We  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 10:34 am : link
are back in LV for 2017 (and likely 2018 as well).
Damn I thought there was a chance we could get out  
Eric on Li : 8/24/2016 10:42 am : link
after this year. That sucks.
Judging how Sandy  
ZGiants98 : 8/24/2016 10:43 am : link
handled 2B last year with Herrera, I'd say there is close to no chance Duda wont be back. He's just too big of a bargain on a one year deal if he's even remotely healthy. Only thing stopping a Duda return would be some medical situation we are unaware of at this time that would prevent him from playing in 2017.

That said, with Smith's emergence this year, he will almost certainly taking over Duda at some point next year/2018.
Rochester  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 10:47 am : link
was the Mets only "out" and they opted to remain with the Twins. The only other team looking to potentially switch affiliates is the Brewers... who are in Colorado Springs which is basically just as far and an even better hitters/worse pitchers environment.

- Lehigh Valley PA (Phillies) ...
- Toledo (Tigers)
- Colorado Springs (Brewers)
- Tacoma (Mariners)

Are the only unsigned deals
Duda  
Metnut : 8/24/2016 10:53 am : link
on a one year affordable deal, if healthy, might be tradeable also. Guy put up back to back 3+ WAR seasons in 2014 and 2015. Good chance that if he's healthy he does that again and a team could even qualify him.
I'd  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 10:58 am : link
be beyond stunned if Duda is non-tendered. In fact I'd say there is a close to 0% chance of it happening unless Duda's back is still an issue. If healthy he's a guaranteed tender guy.
RE: I'd  
ZGiants98 : 8/24/2016 11:03 am : link
In comment 13084146 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
be beyond stunned if Duda is non-tendered. In fact I'd say there is a close to 0% chance of it happening unless Duda's back is still an issue. If healthy he's a guaranteed tender guy.


Exactly what I just said. +10000
I  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 11:07 am : link
think people are overstating how much he would get via arbitration. Josh Reddick got 6.5 million this year coming off an .816 OPS season, Trumbo got 9.1, Moss 8.25. Duda is making 6.7. He will likely get between 8-10 million on a 1 year deal. That's a bargain rate/ zero risk.
Whats the rationale for a 3 million dollar increase  
bhill410 : 8/24/2016 11:23 am : link
when he has barely played this year? I would have thought it would have been relatively similar to this years amount.
RE: Whats the rationale for a 3 million dollar increase  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 11:29 am : link
In comment 13084194 bhill410 said:
Quote:
when he has barely played this year? I would have thought it would have been relatively similar to this years amount.


There is almost always an increase. Trumbo (again a similar player) only had a .759 OPS in 2015 and yet saw his salary bump from 6.9 to 9.1 million. As the arbitration numbers go up each season it's to be expected Duda lands roughly the same increase
Moss  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 11:30 am : link
.711 OPS in 2015, saw his salary go from 6.5 million to 8.2
..  
Named Later : 8/24/2016 11:32 am : link
We went to see Columbia Fireflies play the Charleston Riverdogs last night. Good game and a beautiful night for baseball.

I had wanted to see Church pitch, but Kevin Canelon was the starter (Church is pitching tonight). I liked the way Canelon worked quickly. He got the ball, got the sign and made his pitch. He kept the lefty batters off balance -- the Riverdogs had been scoring runs in bunches and just laid waste to the Greenville (Red Sox) staff to the tune of 8 or 9 runs a night. Canelon held the same lineup to 2 hits, one of them a hopper back to the mound that he just deflected and spun it away from the shortstop --infield hit. Extra Pitchers Fielding Practice for Kevin. He throws grounders, as they say. But.....he never broke 90 on the radar gun. I was willing to chalk it up to Minor League Radar....but the relief pitcher came in throwing 95, so the gun wasn't busted.

Dash's Homer came on the first pitch he saw, a no-doubter that cleared the RF wall with plenty to spare.

Probably more the exception  
bhill410 : 8/24/2016 11:33 am : link
but didnt tejada's actually go down after a year where he was hurt 90% of it? I think you are only allowed to offer a small percentage less but I thought it happened (could have been a reliever, maybe parnell, and I am getting confused)
Cashner's  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 11:34 am : link
era went up 2 full points yet still received a raise of 3.1 million.

Wilson Ramos coming off a career worst .616 OPS received 5.35, up from 3.55
Duda  
sshin05 : 8/24/2016 11:36 am : link
at 10 mil is a bargain with his potential to put up big power numbers.

Tough luck with Rochester, that location would have been perfect for an AAA affiliate.
RE: Probably more the exception  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 11:37 am : link
In comment 13084220 bhill410 said:
Quote:
but didnt tejada's actually go down after a year where he was hurt 90% of it? I think you are only allowed to offer a small percentage less but I thought it happened (could have been a reliever, maybe parnell, and I am getting confused)


Tejada was awarded 1.88, a raise up from 1.1. He only lost money in 2016 because the Mets released him in ST when arbitration awards are not fully guaranteed. 2013 he missed 105 games and still was paid double in 2014, 514,000 to 1.1 million.
RE: ..  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 11:39 am : link
In comment 13084218 Named Later said:
Quote:
We went to see Columbia Fireflies play the Charleston Riverdogs last night. Good game and a beautiful night for baseball.

I had wanted to see Church pitch, but Kevin Canelon was the starter (Church is pitching tonight). I liked the way Canelon worked quickly. He got the ball, got the sign and made his pitch. He kept the lefty batters off balance -- the Riverdogs had been scoring runs in bunches and just laid waste to the Greenville (Red Sox) staff to the tune of 8 or 9 runs a night. Canelon held the same lineup to 2 hits, one of them a hopper back to the mound that he just deflected and spun it away from the shortstop --infield hit. Extra Pitchers Fielding Practice for Kevin. He throws grounders, as they say. But.....he never broke 90 on the radar gun. I was willing to chalk it up to Minor League Radar....but the relief pitcher came in throwing 95, so the gun wasn't busted.

Dash's Homer came on the first pitch he saw, a no-doubter that cleared the RF wall with plenty to spare.


Canelon is a noted soft-tosser. Scouting report from last season had him 86-88, guy didn't think he was a prospect but a solid organizational filler.
..  
Named Later : 8/24/2016 12:19 pm : link
Do you think Canelon has a role as a LOOGY ?? He had the lefties baffled last night. My impressions of that Columbia team is -- good fundamentals, the infielders always have their head in the game. Maybe it was because Canelon was working so quickly. They seem to be well-coached at this level.

Oh, and the results of the Bobble-Election are in. The Promotion was first 1000 fans could choose a Bobblehead for either Hillary or Trump. The first candidate to give away all the Bobbles....wins. Trump was the winner by far, and they were having trouble finding takers for Hillary. This is a Red State, for sure.
Sorry was thinking of Parnell  
bhill410 : 8/24/2016 12:20 pm : link
His salary remained the same in 2015 after being hurt most of 2014
Even if Cespedes resigns they'll tender Duda  
Eric on Li : 8/24/2016 12:21 pm : link
the question is if he'll have a spot to play, which is what I personally doubt. If Cespedes resigns I think he gets traded similarly to Niese last year for a veteran making a similar amount of money at a more useful position. Conforto, Bruce, and Cespedes are going to need to play every day next year, and it's hard to envision that being possible without 1 of them at 1B (likely Bruce).
Couldn't  
Metnut : 8/24/2016 12:34 pm : link
Bruce's option just be declined? This is the third straight year where he's playing at or below replacement level (according to fWar). Why not save the money and roll with a Conforto/Lagares/Cespedes OF with Grandy/Nimmo/Rugg as the backups?

(sorry to hijack the thread Dan)
RE: Sorry was thinking of Parnell  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 1:06 pm : link
In comment 13084305 bhill410 said:
Quote:
His salary remained the same in 2015 after being hurt most of 2014


Parnell missed the entire 2014, but agreed to take a renewed contract because there was no guarantee he was going to be healthy in 2015 coming off major surgery (he pretty clearly was never the same). Duda has absolutely no reason to accept a renewed contract. If he goes to arbitration he's getting a raise so why agree to a renewal? To be nice?
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 1:08 pm : link
Per @AdamRubinESPN Anthony Kay will not pitch at all this season (2016) #Mets
I would non-tender  
pjcas18 : 8/24/2016 1:16 pm : link
Duda and try and trade Cabrera.

I'd use that money and bring in an 8 figure reliever like Chapman. Reed, Chapman/Familia is the 7-9 I'd love with Robles ready to pick up slack.

I'd make Smith the everyday 1B and re-sign Loney as insurance (which would be no worse than this year, but cheaper depending on the Loney $$).

I'd also bring up Rosario as the everyday SS, his defense and speed make him a better option than Cabrera even if power suffers a little.

Would  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 1:22 pm : link
be pretty stunning to see the Cubs let Chapman walk.
Loney  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 1:23 pm : link
wouldn't be a fit with Smith. Both are lefty and both struggle against lefties (at least Smith has so far).
Should  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 1:24 pm : link
also be noted, somehow people have lost track of the fact that Loney has been absolute garbage for a while now. Last 22 games .536 OPS.
RE: I would non-tender  
Metnut : 8/24/2016 1:25 pm : link
In comment 13084442 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Duda and try and trade Cabrera.

I'd use that money and bring in an 8 figure reliever like Chapman. Reed, Chapman/Familia is the 7-9 I'd love with Robles ready to pick up slack.

I'd make Smith the everyday 1B and re-sign Loney as insurance (which would be no worse than this year, but cheaper depending on the Loney $$).

I'd also bring up Rosario as the everyday SS, his defense and speed make him a better option than Cabrera even if power suffers a little.


Not bad (aside from Loney being on the MLB roster). I really like the idea of going after another stud reliever but would rather non-tender Bruce considering that he makes more money than Duda and is a worse player at a position that appears full (corner OF).

I'd rather hold off on Smith and Rosario until Super 2 next year (or at least a month or so to avoid a year of FA). Something like TDA, Duda, Walker, Cabrera, Reyes, Conforto, Cespedes and Lagares is a solid group with some depth options like Wright (could obviously switch him with Reyes), Granderson, Flores, Nimmo and Smith, Rosario & Cecchini being eventually in the mix as well.

So all FA should do IMO is (i) keep Cespedes; (ii) decline Bruce's option; (iii) sign one of the best relievers on the market; (iv) sign random bench bat); and (v) sign starting rotation depth/5th starter type.
RE: Loney  
pjcas18 : 8/24/2016 1:25 pm : link
In comment 13084457 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
wouldn't be a fit with Smith. Both are lefty and both struggle against lefties (at least Smith has so far).


Someone like that, an older cheaper veteran 1B, doesn't have to be Loney, not like Loney has been impressive.

And the Cubs can't offer a QO to Chapman right since he was traded? So no reason for him not to test FA right?
RE: RE: Loney  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 1:30 pm : link
In comment 13084462 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 13084457 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


wouldn't be a fit with Smith. Both are lefty and both struggle against lefties (at least Smith has so far).



Someone like that, an older cheaper veteran 1B, doesn't have to be Loney, not like Loney has been impressive.

And the Cubs can't offer a QO to Chapman right since he was traded? So no reason for him not to test FA right?


They can't offer him the QO but they are far more likely to spend big on their incumbent closer whom they just gave up a lot for via trade. The Mets just do not participate in bidding wars and weren't even in on previous big relievers like Miller. I'd be beyond shocked if the Mets spent the kind of money it would take to sign Chapman (he will easily become the highest paid closer in baseball and almost certainly receive the largest closer deal of all-time). If the Cubs want to retain him he's almost certainly going to remain there.
Loney  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 1:30 pm : link
shouldn't even be on the current roster anymore. He's been that bad.
RE: Loney  
pjcas18 : 8/24/2016 1:34 pm : link
In comment 13084475 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
shouldn't even be on the current roster anymore. He's been that bad.


Yeah, it was more the point of having insurance for Smith against the rookie wall, etc.

Duda couldn't hit lefties either and they didn't really platoon him from what I remember.

I wasn't looking at Loney or whoever it is as a platoon, more just a backup.
I'd  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 1:36 pm : link
be shocked if they turned the keys over to Smith but if they did you would hope the "backup"/platoonish option would be RH and semi-decent. A guy like Pearce would work.
RE: I'd  
pjcas18 : 8/24/2016 1:41 pm : link
In comment 13084492 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
be shocked if they turned the keys over to Smith but if they did you would hope the "backup"/platoonish option would be RH and semi-decent. A guy like Pearce would work.


What's the downside? Aggressive teams would do it I think. Does Smith really need to go to Vegas and hit .330 and OPS 900+? Does Rosario really need Vegas?

Why would either of them repeat AA?

I won't pretend to know their actual readiness levels, but it would save money that could be used elsewhere and I don't see the downside unless there is some reason they're not ready that can be fixed in a half season in Vegas.

1B has been a blackhole this year and Duda with his inconsistency and back issue is a bad investment.

Cabrera has been ok, but he has limited range, and has power, but hard to say this right, not enough power or hit tool you'd say he can't be replaced.

the one guy I'm torn on is Walker, I don't want him to walk for nothing, but I fear he'll accept the QO and I don't want to pay him 16M and while he's been streaky he has some good qualities.
I don't think Walker accepts QO  
Vanzetti : 8/24/2016 1:53 pm : link
He is 30 years old. This is his chance to get a big contract.

He is also coming off arguably his best year (assuming he stays on pace). Plus, he has back issues.

If he accepted the QO and his back flared up and made him miss a bunch of games, he would be royally fucked. No agent is going to recommend the QO.



RE: I don't think Walker accepts QO  
pjcas18 : 8/24/2016 1:55 pm : link
In comment 13084542 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
He is 30 years old. This is his chance to get a big contract.

He is also coming off arguably his best year (assuming he stays on pace). Plus, he has back issues.

If he accepted the QO and his back flared up and made him miss a bunch of games, he would be royally fucked. No agent is going to recommend the QO.




Look how much Murphy potentially left on the table by NOT accepting the QO.

Murphy would be signing a contract for double what he did if he were a free agent after THIS season instead of last season.

16M guaranteed is nothing to dismiss quickly IMO. I think it's 50/50.

Let's see how he finishes the season.
I think the QO  
Metnut : 8/24/2016 2:01 pm : link
will be $17.1M for this upcoming offseason. Teams are valuing the first round pick more and more these days, so it would be really interesting to see how an aging just short of all-star player like Walker does on the open market.
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 2:41 pm : link
Mark Suleymanov ‏@TheMARKOut1 16h16 hours ago
#Mets top prospect and #Cyclones LHP Thomas Szapucki will see a doctor for his stiff back tomorrow at 11 am.
Im up for Walker resigning for 3 more years  
spike : 8/24/2016 2:47 pm : link
..
The  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 2:51 pm : link
prevailing thought is more teams will be scared of offering QO's now that borderline guys have begun accepting them. That said, the awful FA market might convince some guys to gamble on themselves.
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/24/2016 4:26 pm : link
Ricky M (CT): Is Dom Smith finally going to get the prospect hype he deserves this offseason? .304/.367/.468 as a 21 year old in AA. Will he finally begin to be recognized as a top 40 prospect?

J.J. Cooper: He's having a very good year and it's an outstanding August. He's a very solid first base prospect, but there's still nothing about his year that separates him statistically from his Double-A first base contemporaries Rowdy Tellez or Jake Bauers. We think Smith is a very solid first base prospect. He was a back of the top 100 guy last year. I do think he will move up from there, but I don't know if that means he'll crack the top 40.



ben (tenafly): How many mets prospects make the top 100 this offseason? By my estimation, Rosario, Smith and Szapucki are locks. Dunn, Cecchini, NImmo and Lindsay seem to be in the iffy range. What do you think?

J.J. Cooper: I would say Rosario and Smith are locks. Dunn has a much better shot of cracking the Top 100 than Szapucki. Nothing against Szapucki but Dunn has a significantly longer track record.



Freddy (Queens): Am I the only one who thinks Nimmo is more than a 4th outfielder?

J.J. Cooper: He's right on that line. Nimmo fits to me the second-division regular profile. He could be a starter, but on a championship team he's more likely to be a part-time player/fourth outfielder.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1471955210
RE: The  
Metnut : 8/24/2016 4:33 pm : link
In comment 13084700 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
prevailing thought is more teams will be scared of offering QO's now that borderline guys have begun accepting them. That said, the awful FA market might convince some guys to gamble on themselves.


Agreed, but I'm not sure the Mets would mind Walker accepting the QO.
Walker has a bad back  
Vanzetti : 8/25/2016 4:31 am : link
Mets signed Wright with a bad back but hedged by (wisely) taking out an insurance policy.

Do they do the same with a thirty year old Walker? If they do, it tells me Sandy is desperate. Because his entire philosophy and 26 years in baseball has been predicated on avoiding deals like that.

Wright was signed not because Sandy thought it was a good deal, but because he was the "face of the franchise." It was a PR move not a baseball move.

So, everything in Sandy's resume says QO for Walker, not a longterm deal.
Walker can go after refusing QO  
spike : 8/25/2016 9:26 am : link
If only Cecchiani is ready to take over 2B next season which Im not sure he is
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