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Does it bother anyone else? Beckham vs. Brown

BestFeature : 9/12/2016 11:27 pm
Seems like the Steelers seem to make a better effort to get Brown the ball. Or is Brown just better at getting open? Many people seem to think that Beckham is more talented than him, but it seems like Brown is at the very least more consistently featured in the offense. I don't think OBJ did poorly yesterday considering how long the Giants had the ball but still seems like he gets fewer opportunities. Is that on OBJ or Eli/McAdoo?
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I think people confuse things  
pjcas18 : 9/13/2016 2:45 pm : link
and it makes them overly sensitive.

I don't think anyone has suggested "let's trade Brown for Beckham" or vice versa.

or Brown had a better start to his career.

or one team has a better QB

or anything else.

besides right now, in their respective offenses on their respective teams (which is the only factual place to put them) Brown is a better receiver.

It's hard to argue against until you start bringing in non-controllable situational variables or auxiliary opinions.

And to be clear it's an opinion, but like I said in the beginning, outside of NY not many people take Beckham over Brown in a game being played tonight with their respective teams in place.

and it's not a criticism of Beckham.

When their careers are over, Beckham could very well surpass Brown, if someone asked who had the best first two seasons of a career you can obviously say Beckham, or if they asked something different than you can make a case for Beckham, but who is better right now isn't a hard choice for most people.

and it doesn't bother me at all - to the OP's question.
if you look at some advanced numbers  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 9/13/2016 2:49 pm : link
you could easily argue Beckham has been better on a per game basis the past 2 years.
are you the guy  
santacruzom : 9/13/2016 2:51 pm : link
who started a thread some months ago stating you simply couldn't understand how anyone would rank Antonio Brown as a top 5 receiver?
RE: if you look at some advanced numbers  
pjcas18 : 9/13/2016 2:54 pm : link
In comment 13120562 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
Quote:
you could easily argue Beckham has been better on a per game basis the past 2 years.


TD's. Is there another one? In either case TD's is certainly a good one.
both players  
PaulBlakeTSU : 9/13/2016 2:56 pm : link
are fantastic. For Brown, it doesn't hurt that he has had who many consider is the best running back in the game with the best backup running back in the game as well as a very reliable TE option to open up the middle of the field in Heath Miller.

Meanwhile, until this season, what other offensive weapon did Giants' opponents have to worry about besides Odell?
RE: both players  
pjcas18 : 9/13/2016 3:03 pm : link
In comment 13120585 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
are fantastic. For Brown, it doesn't hurt that he has had who many consider is the best running back in the game with the best backup running back in the game as well as a very reliable TE option to open up the middle of the field in Heath Miller.

Meanwhile, until this season, what other offensive weapon did Giants' opponents have to worry about besides Odell?


In football those types of arguments don't really work for some reason.

What other weapons did the Texans have besides DeAndre Hopkins? Arian Foster went out week 4 and not only did they have no other weapons to speak of they had garbage QB's. 4 different ones.

Yet Hopkins put up better stats than Beckham who had a pro-bowl QB, a decent RB, and a guy in Rueben Randle who would have been the 2nd best WR in HOU too.
there are people  
PaulBlakeTSU : 9/13/2016 3:06 pm : link
who think Nuk gets shortchanged in the discussion of best receivers in the NFL for that very reason.
pjcas  
BigBlueShock : 9/13/2016 3:53 pm : link
Referring to what others outside of NY think isn't a very good indicator either. NY players typically get shortchanged when it comes to fans around the rest of the country, and their opinions. In all sports. Eli is the worst QB to ever live if you were to ask those same fans. I'm not arguing your point that Brown is better, at the moment. But using fans outside of NY doesn't prove anything really
RE: RE: if you look at some advanced numbers  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 9/13/2016 4:10 pm : link
In comment 13120580 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 13120562 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:


Quote:


you could easily argue Beckham has been better on a per game basis the past 2 years.



TD's. Is there another one? In either case TD's is certainly a good one.


Odell has a better QB Rating on balls thrown to his direction.

QB Rating, TDs, INTs, and YDS are the main ways that QBs get rated these days... Odell has had Brown beat in 3/4 of those categories since he entered the league
I just wish that OBJ would concentrate  
Jersey55 : 9/13/2016 4:28 pm : link
more on catching the ball with 2 hands.
RE: RE: RE: if you look at some advanced numbers  
pjcas18 : 9/13/2016 4:51 pm : link
In comment 13120773 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
Quote:
In comment 13120580 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 13120562 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:


Quote:


you could easily argue Beckham has been better on a per game basis the past 2 years.



TD's. Is there another one? In either case TD's is certainly a good one.



Odell has a better QB Rating on balls thrown to his direction.

QB Rating, TDs, INTs, and YDS are the main ways that QBs get rated these days... Odell has had Brown beat in 3/4 of those categories since he entered the league


kind of a stretch giving credit to/blaming a WR for primarily QB stats like INTs and QB Rating, but if that makes you feel better about Beckham, go ahead and use that.
RE: RE: RE: RE: if you look at some advanced numbers  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 9/13/2016 10:06 pm : link
In comment 13120876 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 13120773 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:


Quote:


In comment 13120580 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 13120562 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:


Quote:


you could easily argue Beckham has been better on a per game basis the past 2 years.



TD's. Is there another one? In either case TD's is certainly a good one.



Odell has a better QB Rating on balls thrown to his direction.

QB Rating, TDs, INTs, and YDS are the main ways that QBs get rated these days... Odell has had Brown beat in 3/4 of those categories since he entered the league



kind of a stretch giving credit to/blaming a WR for primarily QB stats like INTs and QB Rating, but if that makes you feel better about Beckham, go ahead and use that.


I don't get the passive aggressive tone with that post. This isn't hard.

Big Ben has thrown less picks and has had a better QB rating than Eli the past 2 years. The Steelers have had a more reliable running game and secondary cast of weapons than the Giants in the same span.

Despite that, Odell has posted a higher QB rating/moreTDs/lessINTs/higherYPC on balls thrown in his direction than Brown.

It's a simple argument.
Browns done it for 16 games  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 9/13/2016 10:08 pm : link
Only reason why it looks like Brown is clearly better on paper. Odell still needs to prove he can do it for 16. But on a per game basis, he has been right there with Brown and arguably better based on my last post.
It's not passive aggressive  
pjcas18 : 9/13/2016 10:33 pm : link
or I didn't mean to be, I apologize.

but saying Eli has less picks when throwing at Beckham than ben does when throwing to Brown, and somehow attributing that to the receiver seems like mental gymnastics.

isn't that on the QB? Maybe Eli throws better passes when he throws to Beckham and Ben just figures ah-f-it Brown is probably open or he'll get it if I throw it near him.

I don't see how you can attribute interceptions or well thrown balls to the receiver. in most cases. Of course there's the occasional "the catch" from Beckham that impacts Eli's QBR, but it's rare IMO.

You're taking a stat about the QB and giving the WR credit for it when there is no evidence they can even influence it.

Unless you're talking drops (where despite many more targets in 2015, Brown had less drops than Beckham) the rest is mostly on the QB IMO.



yeah OBJ  
blueblood : 9/13/2016 10:44 pm : link
has been the most prolific receiver in the history of the NFL his first two seasons...

and there is a problem ????

really ???
Osi oy has got it right  
hassan : 9/13/2016 10:47 pm : link
The advanced stats suggest Odell is better. Yac and tds are the easy indication.

More importantly brown puts up better stats because of his significant target advantage and his higher completion pct(due to the route variety Pitt runs for him).........making him 'appear' better....

People asserting Briwn is better reading the high level stats aren't diving into the numbers.....
RE: Osi oy has got it right  
pjcas18 : 9/13/2016 11:00 pm : link
In comment 13121339 hassan said:
Quote:
The advanced stats suggest Odell is better. Yac and tds are the easy indication.

More importantly brown puts up better stats because of his significant target advantage and his higher completion pct(due to the route variety Pitt runs for him).........making him 'appear' better....

People asserting Briwn is better reading the high level stats aren't diving into the numbers.....


If you say so.
RE: are you the guy  
BestFeature : 9/14/2016 12:25 am : link
In comment 13120564 santacruzom said:
Quote:
who started a thread some months ago stating you simply couldn't understand how anyone would rank Antonio Brown as a top 5 receiver?


I'm pretty sure that was someone else.
Pjcas  
hassan : 9/14/2016 12:35 am : link
Not just a matter of me saying so. Look the numbers up:

Brown got 12.1 targets to Odell's 10.6 last year.

He caught 70pct of targets vs 60 for Odell/a lot to do with the route trees mentioned earlier.

He scored less tds per reception that Odell

He has far less yac per reception than Odell.

It's freely available. Not going to repost this. Deep analytics dives usually can tell a more complete story.



honestly i hope obj's numbers come down some  
eli4life : 9/14/2016 12:52 am : link
Because cruz and Shepard goes up. The trio could be lethal
Eli4life  
hassan : 9/14/2016 1:07 am : link
I would disagree. Ride your horse. Beckham will automatically create easier match ups for the others but NY Giants must get the targets up for Beckham and still get balls to the other guys.

pj, I got bored and did a quick statisitcal comp  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 9/14/2016 3:11 pm : link
Per 16 game Averages since '14:

AB: 187 Tgts -- 132 Rec -- 1774 Yds -- 12 TD -- 5 INT
OB: 169 Tgts -- 109 Rec -- 1616 Yds -- 14 TD -- 3 INT

AB: 70.9% Comp -- 13.4 YPC -- 9.50 Yd/Tgt -- 11.7 Tgt/G -- 110.5 QBR
OB: 64.5% Comp -- 14.8 YPC -- 9.55 Yd/Tgt -- 10.6 Tgt/G -- 116.8 QBR

Brown is on an absolutely epic stretch, one of the best ever for a WR. But on a per-game basis, Odell has been right there with him since he entered the league.

Brown gets a target more per game and has averaged 111 YPG to Odell's 101 YPG. But that 10 YPG difference is nullified when you take into account the fact that Pitt has passed more as a team over this span. Brown has accounted for 37.6% of his team's passing yards while Odell has accounted for 37.1% of his team's yards.

I disagree with your point about INTs not being related to WRs. If we're going to give WRs credit for TDs thrown to them, we can't discredit then for INTs thrown to their direction?

Statistically you could still give the edge to Brown. But on a per game basis the start of Odell's career absolutely rivals what Brown has done over the same time.

Plus, beyond the stats, Odell's had less help around him than Brown over the same span. I can't wait to see what he does this year with the best WR corps he's been apart of.
RE: pj, I got bored and did a quick statisitcal comp  
pjcas18 : 9/14/2016 3:15 pm : link
In comment 13122336 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
Quote:
Per 16 game Averages since '14:

AB: 187 Tgts -- 132 Rec -- 1774 Yds -- 12 TD -- 5 INT
OB: 169 Tgts -- 109 Rec -- 1616 Yds -- 14 TD -- 3 INT

AB: 70.9% Comp -- 13.4 YPC -- 9.50 Yd/Tgt -- 11.7 Tgt/G -- 110.5 QBR
OB: 64.5% Comp -- 14.8 YPC -- 9.55 Yd/Tgt -- 10.6 Tgt/G -- 116.8 QBR

Brown is on an absolutely epic stretch, one of the best ever for a WR. But on a per-game basis, Odell has been right there with him since he entered the league.

Brown gets a target more per game and has averaged 111 YPG to Odell's 101 YPG. But that 10 YPG difference is nullified when you take into account the fact that Pitt has passed more as a team over this span. Brown has accounted for 37.6% of his team's passing yards while Odell has accounted for 37.1% of his team's yards.

I disagree with your point about INTs not being related to WRs. If we're going to give WRs credit for TDs thrown to them, we can't discredit then for INTs thrown to their direction?

Statistically you could still give the edge to Brown. But on a per game basis the start of Odell's career absolutely rivals what Brown has done over the same time.

Plus, beyond the stats, Odell's had less help around him than Brown over the same span. I can't wait to see what he does this year with the best WR corps he's been apart of.


You give a WR credit for the TD because he has to catch ball. On an interception giving the WR blame might make sense might not, on a case by case basis is the only way to do it. Blanket credit is silly.

Eli (and Ben) are gunslingers and make passes many QB's won't make. Sometimes they are rewarded by acrobatic and athletic (or sometimes just pedestrian) WR play to make a connection.

When those ill-advised (or sometimes just poor) passes are picked off I don't see any sane way you blame the WR (blanketly).

It's like blaming an OL if a RB fumbles just because you gave them credit for a rushing TD.
Otherwise  
pjcas18 : 9/14/2016 3:19 pm : link
it's pretty close like I expected but per game stats have to extrapolate, and you can't always assume up.

I hate these debates, it's not a black and white answer and people get offended when you don't pick their guy.

If Beckham's targets equalled Browns who is to say Beckham's stats don't settle downward.

Also the only option vs other options argument can work both ways. It's not a given that because the Giants have more options Beckham will have a better year, the complete opposite could be true. Same with Brown. It's not like Jesse James and Eli Rogers are household names. Or Sammie Coates. That's who was on the field as pass catchers with Brown on Monday.
I'm too lazy to do it  
PaulBlakeTSU : 9/14/2016 3:20 pm : link
but I'd be interested to see those breakdowns for just Ben-AB games.
OBJ is in his 3rd year  
JPinstripes : 9/14/2016 3:20 pm : link
and AB is in his 7th year.

In AB's first 3 seasons he had 151 catches, 7 TDs and less then 2,000 yards.

OBJ is still learning and improving.
RE: I'm too lazy to do it  
giants#1 : 9/14/2016 3:24 pm : link
In comment 13122358 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
but I'd be interested to see those breakdowns for just Ben-AB games.


In the 4 games last season that Ben missed:

Brown: 31 tgts, 17 rec, 235 yds, 0 TDs, 8.8 y/r
Per game ave: 4 rec, 59 yds

In the 9 games after Ben's return, Brown averaged 10 rec, 129 yds, and 1 TD
More targets  
hassan : 9/14/2016 11:37 pm : link
for Beckham would only trend his ypc and yards per target down potentially (and not necessarily), and an extra one a game would not trend him that far down.

His touchdowns per game can only go up as would his overall yardage.

The point, is an assertion brown is 'just better' is really just based on total yardage and total catches. But no other meaningful stat.

Not to be annoying, but the original premise is whether the way Beckham is used is frustrating. As good as he has been, he is still not realizing his overall potential and if NYG used him like a Jones or a brown his numbers can become truly 'Wilt Chamberlain' like.....

That is the really scary part. There is still a significant upside Beckham can realize.
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