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Football Outsiders Film Room: Kirk Cousins

Greg from LI : 9/22/2016 4:55 pm
Someone posted their film analysis of Sterling Shepard earlier. Coincidentally, I saw the same feature on Kirk Cousins over at Extremeskins. Written back over the summer, I'm posting it here because it confirmed pretty much what I've been saying since last year about this guy :) ..... he threw a ton of very short passes that receivers and backs turned into big gains, which pumped his numbers up quite a bit, along with facing a bunch of horrid defenses late in the season. The author compares his illusory success to Nick Foles in Philly.

Quote:
If we look specifically at that Week 10 game against the Saints, we can see that Cousins averaged 13.0 yards per attempt, but the average depth of his throws was a measly 4.4. Cousins had three screens go for 138 yards, and gained 202 yards with two touchdowns on Simple YAC throws (passes where the ball doesn't travel further than 2 yards past the line of scrimmage). On that day, Cousins only needed to be average to be good -- to be great even.


Quote:
Fifty-eight percent of Cousins' passes traveled 5 yards or fewer past the line of scrimmage last season. Not only did he lead the league in that measurement, he was a full 10 percent ahead of Derek Carr, who runs a somewhat similar offense, and a full 20 percent ahead of Cam Newton, who runs the polar opposite offense. When you're not throwing the ball down the field, your completion percentage should be as high as Cousins' was.


Quote:
As a weak-armed passer, Cousins can't throw with precision downfield. He has to force passes more to get them there on time, which takes away from his placement......Over this period, Cousins was also regularly throwing interceptable passes. He had 17 interceptable passes on 308 attempts, or one interceptable pass in every 18.1 attempts. Only three quarterbacks -- Johnny Manziel, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck -- had a worse ratio for the full season. Cousins was extremely lucky that only nine of those passes turned into interceptions, because more than a few were awful throws.


Quote:
Cousins and the Washington offense faced a lot of inferior opponents over the second half of the season. With the abundance of talent around him, it would often have been tougher for him to struggle than to produce the numbers that he did.

In three of his final eight games during the regular season, Cousins faced the worst defense in the league (and the last quarter-century), the Saints; the second-worst, the Bears; and the third-worst, the Giants. He only faced two defenses that ranked in the top 16 from Week 10 onwards (one if you discount the playoffs).


There's a whole lot more there with plenty of film evidence. The guy simply isn't that good.
I like that.  
Klaatu : 9/22/2016 5:08 pm : link
.....
No reason not to beat up  
Randy in CT : 9/22/2016 5:18 pm : link
on this team.
Cousins has played like crap.  
Boy Cord : 9/22/2016 5:24 pm : link
But, DC's defense has been even worse. I agree. There is no reason the Giants should not win.

I am burned out. Way too invested in this game. Sports radio in DC is wall-to-wall Skins. If one station talks Nats, all you need to do is flip the station and it's all Cousins and Norman and poking fun at the Giants: Beckham's grudge match with Norman and Janoris Jenkins's repeated comments (Brian Mitchell is basically him an insecure attention whore).

Giants need to bury this team. This game sets up well for DC: Backs against wall, everyone against them, ... Hopefully talent prevails.
I would love to see a beat down Sunday  
AP in Halfmoon : 9/22/2016 5:30 pm : link
.
I know all signs point to a NY victory  
DieHard : 9/22/2016 5:36 pm : link
Yet somehow, irrationally, I worry about this game. The Giants aren't firing on all cylinders yet, and I could see some sloppy play hurting them on Sunday (like it did vs the Skins in game 2 last year). As bad as Cousins has been, you also have to think the Skins will use this game as their big "circle the wagons" moment. I just hope the Giants stay cool, play smart, and not give this sucker away.
...  
26.2 : 9/22/2016 6:20 pm : link
Too many signs pointing to the Giants winning this one for my taste. I'm very nervouse for this one.
I want this game so bad  
Paulie Walnuts : 9/22/2016 6:32 pm : link
hope the Giants show up, and kick their asses
His ceiling may be  
mrvax : 9/22/2016 6:36 pm : link
an Alex Smith type. Not too shabby but not really a franchise guy.
And yet, he can easily have  
Big Blue '56 : 9/22/2016 6:44 pm : link
a solid game against us if he hits some of the passes he narrowly missed against Dallas..

New game, 60 minutes, past stats mean squat, imv..There may be a pattern for certain, but for any given game, I'd throw that out the window
RE: And yet, he can easily have  
Boy Cord : 9/22/2016 8:40 pm : link
In comment 13136490 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
a solid game against us if he hits some of the passes he narrowly missed against Dallas..

New game, 60 minutes, past stats mean squat, imv..There may be a pattern for certain, but for any given game, I'd throw that out the window


I'm with you. I would like to see the Giants put heavy pressure on Cousins to ensure he does not get on track.

I think the Skins are going to move Cousins out of the pocket. He is mobile. I see boots, read option, and QB draws. I'm sure the Giants prepared for this with Dak. This will be an issue. The Skins cannot continue to do what they have done the first two games of this season.

The match-up that I love in this game is Eli and the three weapons on the outside vs. the Skins defense.
Matchups???  
grizz299 : 9/22/2016 9:04 pm : link
Watch their fine DLE end lining up over Hart. Brrrr
This is a new Giant Era  
chiro56 : 9/22/2016 9:30 pm : link
This team is not the same team as the last few years. Attitude very different. They not only will win the close ones, as demonstrated. My sense is they will also blow out the bottom feeders and not take their foot off their chest.
RE: Matchups???  
Boy Cord : 9/22/2016 9:34 pm : link
In comment 13136671 grizz299 said:
Quote:
Watch their fine DLE end lining up over Hart. Brrrr


Their DL blows. Do you mean their LOLB Kerrigan? I think the Giants realize Hart or Beatty will need help.
We all knew the hype  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 9/22/2016 9:38 pm : link
About that completion percentage was nonsense. He's a 12th in the NFL type QB, no ones ever seen top 5 potential out of him.

This is a huge season for Eli and the Giants. This is a game we typically lose but need to win. Odell needs to prove who here really is
RE: ...  
bradshaw44 : 9/22/2016 9:46 pm : link
In comment 13136470 26.2 said:
Quote:
Too many signs pointing to the Giants winning this one for my taste. I'm very nervouse for this one.


Losing our rising star safety has me nervous enough.
RE: We all knew the hype  
Boy Cord : 9/22/2016 9:47 pm : link
In comment 13136736 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
Quote:
About that completion percentage was nonsense. He's a 12th in the NFL type QB, no ones ever seen top 5 potential out of him.

This is a huge season for Eli and the Giants. This is a game we typically lose but need to win. Odell needs to prove who here really is


Two schmoes on ESPN980 this evening compared Cousins to Luck. 65% career completion percentage to 58%. Hey dumbasses. Cousins throws short. Luck goes downfield.

They also wondered when Luck's honeymoon period was going to end as he has not lived up to expectations. They feel Cousins is being unfairly criticized while Luck has been getting a pass.

They continued by saying Cousins is receiving so much scrutiny because he is getting $20 million this season. Wrong again. No one cares what Cousins is making except the guy writing the check and the guy managing the cap. He's being scrutinized because DC made the playoffs last year and the pundits thought they were hot shit.

Albert Breer made a ridiculous comment today as well. SomethI got to the effect of Cousins is expected to throw nine TDs a game. Hyperbole much, Albert?
I'm concerned about the injuries to Newhouse, Jennings and  
yatqb : 9/22/2016 10:21 pm : link
Thompson...each at key positions against this Washington team. We can't turn the ball over, we've got to protect Eli, and we've got to do a good job against Reed.
Fantasy Thread PPR - Go Get Shepard!  
GMen23 : 9/23/2016 8:21 am : link
Have you seen enough yet? I have. With Odell already on both of my PPR teams, and Sheperd on one, I initiated giving up Doug Baldwin to acquire Sheperd on my other last night.
Redskin RCB Breeland is terrible. Week one, Big Ben torched him. I'm not throwing Josh Norman under the bus, he's played well in both weeks. But if he is going to shadow Odell, Eli is going to torch the shit out of Breeland and the rest of that secondary trying to guard Sterling & Victor (who I'm also considering playing in my 2nd flex spot over Lockett & Golden Tate).
We can't run, and hopefully McAdoo learned last week, that running for 1-3 yards on 5 consecutive first downs in the 2nd half, was not the smartest play calling.
I'm a big fan of Darian Thompson. But his injury only adds to the shootout possibilities.
Sterling the real deal, and perfectly matched with our quick release offense.
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