drafting or bad luck?
I have just finished reviewing our drafts for the Jerry Reese GM era and here are the results in terms of players still with the team and those who are now out of football for various reasons or with other teams.
Let me say first that for the past three drafts - 2016, 2015 and 2014 - all but two players from those drafts are gone from the Giants. Those are Andre Williams and Bennett Jackson. Williams just never panned out while Jackson was beset by injuries.
Injuries are a common theme for our players drafted from 2007-2013. A number of high quality players were cut down because of injuries. Steve Smith, Jay Alford, Kevin Boss, Kenny Phillips, Terrell Thomas, Hakeem Nicks, Clint Sintim, Chad Jones and David Wilson could have been good to very good players but for injuries. As a GM, not sure there is much you can do about that. Mario Manningham left via free agency but then a knee injury basically killed his career as well.
There are only two players from drafts 2007-2012 who are still on the Giants...one is currently a backup. They are Zak DeOssie and Will Beatty. One could easily argue that Beatty, even when he was starting, was an average left tackle. Plus he has been beset with injuries throughout his career.
Taking a look at production gives another view. Phillips, TT, Manningham, Nicks, JPP, Prince, Beatty and Reuben Randle were the only players, that is a total of 7 out of 38 drafted players who were, at one time or another, starters. That is a success rate of just over 26% for the 2008-2012 drafts.
Only Pugh, Hankins and Nassib remain from the 2013 draft...Pugh and Hank are both starters. Odell is a Hall of Famer if he stays healthy and Weston Richburg is a very good center. Jury is still out on Bromley, Berhe (who has had numerous injury issues since he was drafted and again this year) and Kennard. Kennard is finally a starter and seems, so far, to have overcome his past injury history.
2015 and 2016 are hard to evaluate but we know already there are questions about how good Flowers will be. Landon Collins would appear to be the best draft pick in the past two years and seems on his way to a Pro Bowl. So far, he has not missed a game due to injury. Sterling Shepard is a starter and has had some very good games as well as some mediocre ones. Other than that, the rest of the past two drafts are either backups or injured such as the two Thompsons. Owa has yet to show much, Hart has been okay, Apple has fought injuries, Perkins has been very good in a limited role, BJ Goodson has yet too see the field, Jerell Adams has also seen limited time and Geremy Davis is on the practice squad.
I have yet to go into depth on free agent signings and undrafted free agents but a cursory view would show not much there either. Now, Vernon has made an impact and certainly helped the D against the run and Snacks has come as advertised. Certainly Janoris Jenkins has been very good at CB. That is this year...signings from past years on that front have been very poor.
So, how do you rate Jerry Reese based on this information? The last decent tight end we drafted was Boss in 2007. Since then, basically nothing. Kennard is the best LB we have drafted and I will leave it up to BBIer's to evaluate his play. Until this year, frankly, not much. 2010-2012 we missed on every offensive line selection we made...Petrus, Brewer, Mosley and McCants. Add Eric Herman to that in 2013. That's five straight misses...no wonder our Oline is still floundering. McCants is the only one who even had a start in the NFL on any team other than the Giants. When other teams do not want your players, that has to say something.
Pat Traina makes the point that the Giants have never fired a GM but let's look at that a little closer. Until Andy Robustelli was hired in the mid-70's, the owner was basically the GM...that being Wellington Mara. Then we hired George Young, with the assistance of Pete Rozelle. GY turned it over to Ernie who then passed the torch to Reese. GY brought us two Super Bowls and reshaped the franchise. He was never going to be fired and he wisely stepped down after 1996. EA built the team back up and really didn't stay that long...ten years. Giants went to a Super Bowl and certainly he is responsible for the greatest trade in Giant history and building the Super Bowl 42 team. Neither of those guys either deserved to be fired or were going to be fired. Neither was Robustelli who was not the GM for very long before quitting.
Reese is now in his tenth season...he has two SB rings (okay one really belongs to EA)...in those ten seasons, the Giants have missed the playoffs 6 times. This year is up in the air. There has been success but there has been less than mediocre play...no year in year out success to match other teams with regular playoff appearances especially considering we have a potential HOF quarterback. I've made my feelings on Reese known so no point in beating a dead horse. These are the facts as best as I can present them.
If you were the owner, is this acceptable to you?
This entire exercise is less than worthless unless you can compare it not only to league averages but to averages of teams picking in similar draft spots.
Also, there is an internal problem that has been ongoing with the Giants for the past decade as to why they can't keep players healthy. Whether drafted or free agents or veterans, the Giants seem to my recollection be one of the worst organizations in the NFL in terms of games lost by starters over the past decade.
Every team deals with injuries, but the Giants have had this problem for a while now - even under TC.
Sorry. RG. Pugh has been much better in year 2 at LG. I meant Jerry all along.
What is your take on DRC? Harris? Vereen?
And really a major reason for the team being generally competitive this season is the influx of talent from last year's free agent spending on Harrison, Vernon and Jenkins.
So "Yes", it's been bad from a draft/talent perspective for a while...
How would this team look with even half of these guys making a longer contribution....
Steve Smith, Jay Alford, Kevin Boss, Kenny Phillips, Terrell Thomas, Hakeem Nicks, Chad Jones and David Wilson.
1. Mismanagement of the OL 2010-2013
2. Relying on street free agents on the defense multiple times over
Aside from that, which is obviously bad, Reese and staff have proven to be pretty good at drafting talent, especially in the early rounds. What we've seen recently starting in 2014 (you could argue 2013 with Pugh and Hankins) is them hitting the reset button and saying hey, let's draft good football players with high IQ and good upside.
Which is what Reese has done starting back in 2013, when they hit the collective reset button.
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Not acceptable at all. For us armchair GM's and ardent followers of this team, we saw this trainwreck on the OL coming as soon as the draft was over and it was apparent that no upgrades would be made and the organization would be foolishly banking on continuity/growth from this group. When you trot out bad players at both OT spots and an average, at best, LG, not much should have been expected with this group. And, here we are, with this group holding back the entire team just as I had said/feared going back to the spring. I wonder what sort of mood John Mara will be in come early January at his end of year presser after doling out a ton in FA to end our playoff drought while Dallas or Philly (or both) are prepping to represent the NFC East in the playoffs.
Sorry. RG. Pugh has been much better in year 2 at LG. I meant Jerry all along.
Just one comment...it is a little early to be crowning either Dallas or Philadephia (or both) playoff bound. There is a lot of football left. I think we are in the conversation.
5 are still with the team
2009 W. Beatty cut and resigned and on the bench .
2010JPP starter great pick but an accident has hampered him .
2010 L. Joeseph great pick but was not kept .
2011 P. Amukamara Not Resigned Jaguars
2012 M.McCants Cut currently on the Raiders 3 career starts
2013 J. Pugh Great Pick Starter
2013 Great pick starter
2013 Ryan Nassib back up QB seems to have regressed .
So 5 years of drafting 8 players in the NFL two are not starting material Hankins was picked to replace Joeseph .
Joeseph is currently the better of the two .
We have pretty much wasted 2 picks for Nassib and 5 years
of a roster spot . So Jerry has nothing to hang his hat on
its too early to judge the last two years that appear to
be his best efforts to date .
We had to spend money to cover up the bad picks and the
departure of at least two good picks .
Now here we are 7 years later and there still is not a strong foundation.
And you can credit EA with Super Bowl 42 if you like, but no way Giants win without Ross, Steve Smith, the Bossman and Ahmad Bradshaw. Reese's picks that year made a huge contribution. Even Jay Alford had a huge play with the sack of Brady.
Essentially, the team was pretty loaded in 2008-2010. There weren't really signs of a bad team during that time. They first started appearing in the 2011 season, when we really struggled to run the ball. Winning the SB helped mask the problem.
The front office miscalculated how much they were going to get from their vets, particularly on the OL. When you have a deep team you can take risks on injured players, or players with high-ceilings/low-floors. This is especially true in later rounds. When you have a mostly solid 53, including 18-20 starters penciled in, you take chances with your rounds 4-7 picks and instead of picking high-floors/low-ceiling players who are likely to contribute something, you select the opposite, since if they aren't going to be a star you're just going to cut them anyway.
The combination of injuries to top selections, failure of the H-C/L-F guys to develop, a commitment by the coaching staff to stick with vets, even injured ones and not develop young guys, and premature aging of the OL and other starters led to the loss of talent. Had the front office anticipated correctly they likely would have shifted strategies earlier and we would have a deeper team right now.
IMO the improved drafting we've seen lately is a return to quality college players (captains) who are low-risk picks later in the draft.
2012-2013 sucked it really set back the org but that's life in the NFL. The Giants went for it and paid the price. If they started the rebuild early we'd probably be better right now.
The team has been competitive the next step is to win big games and finish as a winning team. let's see where this team is in December.
How would this team look with even half of these guys making a longer contribution....
Steve Smith, Jay Alford, Kevin Boss, Kenny Phillips, Terrell Thomas, Hakeem Nicks, Chad Jones and David Wilson.
Only 2 of those guys looked really good.. Jay Alford was never a starter quality player even without injuries.. David Wilson sucked balls compared to how people here think of him.. He was fast but lacked in every other quality and was horrible at holding onto the ball.. way worse than any quality RB in the league right now.. Kenny and Terell were starting quality guys but neither was going to get all pro invitation.. Kevin boss looked good for a very limited time who knows how he holds up once teams start focusing on him.. Chad Jones was nothing special either.. Only Steve Smith and Nicks were special and if they were here.. OBJ won't be..
And you can credit EA with Super Bowl 42 if you like, but no way Giants win without Ross, Steve Smith, the Bossman and Ahmad Bradshaw. Reese's picks that year made a huge contribution. Even Jay Alford had a huge play with the sack of Brady.
Didn't George Young drafted Cedric Jones?
Name the NFL teams that would pass on 2 Super Bowl wins in the past 10 years.
Name them.... I'll wait for your answer. Very few.
Fire Reese. Okay, who would you replace him with. Name anyone. Again, the list of proven year in and year out winners are damn few.
#1- Level of play around the league is down.
#2- OL play is a problem around the league
#3- There is no such thing as "depth"
The way I see it (and I could be wrong)...Is this team is smack dab in the bucket with 99% of the NFL- Somewhere between 6-10 wins.
That being said, if this season goes south (like 6 wins), I'd consider wiping the slate clean and bringing in a VP of Football Ops-type to build something.
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Well, comparing to League Average would be an additional data point. But I don't need that data point to know these injuries to key players are way above average.
How would this team look with even half of these guys making a longer contribution....
Steve Smith, Jay Alford, Kevin Boss, Kenny Phillips, Terrell Thomas, Hakeem Nicks, Chad Jones and David Wilson.
Only 2 of those guys looked really good.. Jay Alford was never a starter quality player even without injuries.. David Wilson sucked balls compared to how people here think of him.. He was fast but lacked in every other quality and was horrible at holding onto the ball.. way worse than any quality RB in the league right now.. Kenny and Terell were starting quality guys but neither was going to get all pro invitation.. Kevin boss looked good for a very limited time who knows how he holds up once teams start focusing on him.. Chad Jones was nothing special either.. Only Steve Smith and Nicks were special and if they were here.. OBJ won't be..
Link - ( New Window )
In comment 13192866 Named Later said:
David Wilson had three fumbles in his career - 2 in his rookie year of 2012 on 46 touches, 1 in 2013 on 75 touches. I wouldn't exactly say this is "horrible at holding onto the ball". But, the myth continues...
What myth.. Fumbling once every 40 touches is really bad..he had this same problem in college.. I can't find his career college fumbles but it is clear from his scouting report that he had fumbling problems. Here is the report from CBS..
"Has suspect ball security with several fumbles over his career, holding the ball too loose."
Don't worry.. Sheeps here will just disregard this.. Stats were published daily as to how bad Giants drafts were compared to others in the week after last season and all these guys that said how does it compare to other teams disappeared.. Giants Drafts over the past 8 years have been bad.. Its a fact..
I knew it was bad but holy shit. The scary thought is Mara trusts the #1 culprit to fix this thing.
we don't pay the guy to stay and ending up spending another
high pick to replace him and I guess the jury is still
out on who ends up the better player .
We finally score a FA TE and he has the best year of his
career and we don't pay him and is still playing well and
guess what the guy can block .
Please Explain to me the Nassib pick ? I meght be wrong
but did we move up for him as well . Talk about a wasted
draft pick ! Prince dropped for a reason and we jumped
all over him turned into a decent starter but injury prone .
We let him go and spent big money to replace him .
Now no one here can argue the Jenkins signing but it's
still a questionable pick . Throw in the numerous fails in
the 3rd round . I can't justify that he has done a good job . Yes we have had bad luck with injuries But T. Thomas
and S. Smith both had injury concerns before the draft .
As did Owa who were still waiting for him to pay
some dividens .
Well that's a relief...we weren't last.
Late round results - ( New Window )
Too early to tell but early returns aren't great...
5 are still with the team
2009 W. Beatty cut and resigned and on the bench .
2010JPP starter great pick but an accident has hampered him .
2010 L. Joeseph great pick but was not kept .
2011 P. Amukamara Not Resigned Jaguars
2012 M.McCants Cut currently on the Raiders 3 career starts
2013 J. Pugh Great Pick Starter
2013 Great pick starter
2013 Ryan Nassib back up QB seems to have regressed .
So 5 years of drafting 8 players in the NFL two are not starting material Hankins was picked to replace Joeseph .
Joeseph is currently the better of the two .
We have pretty much wasted 2 picks for Nassib and 5 years
of a roster spot . So Jerry has nothing to hang his hat on
its too early to judge the last two years that appear to
be his best efforts to date .
We had to spend money to cover up the bad picks and the
departure of at least two good picks .
Now here we are 7 years later and there still is not a strong foundation.
And if you look at George Young's draft, how many of those guys are still with the team? It seems to me that he fares worse than Reece in that regard. Accorsi too for that matter.
The average nfl career looks to be in the neighborhood of 4.5 years, so I'm not sure what looking before 2012-2013, especially in a vacuum, really tells you.
Bill L : 7:58 am : link : reply
And if you look at George Young's draft, how many of those guys are still with the team?
Because Young left the team 20 years ago, almost unheard of any player lasting 20 years