Playoff scenarios (after GB win over PHI)

So now we have the Eagles and GB both at 5-6. Both a game and a half out of the last playoff spot.

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NY Times simulator (running it 3 times to see simulator variability):
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If MIN wins Thursday night:

NYG seed:
#1) 7%, 11%, 10%
#2) 5%, 3%, 4%
#3) 1%, 1%, 2%
#4) 1%, less than 1%, 1%
#5) 45%, 47%, 46%
#6) 21%, 19%, 17%
No playoffs: 20%, 19%, 20%

If DAL wins Thursday night:
NYG seed:
#1) 3%, 5%, 3%
#2) less than 1%, 1%, less than 1%
#3) less than 1%, 1%, less than 1%
#4) less than 1%, less than 1%, less than 1%
#5) 60% 54%, 62%
#6) 21%, 22%, 19%
No playoffs: 16%, 17%, 16%


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Quick Summary
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To win division essentially need to beat DAL and make up 1 other game in the standings on DAL.

Very few ways not to make it at 11-5. Will require 2 from the set (WAS, MIN, TB) to win out and other stuff as well.

At 10-6 siginificant problem arise if two teams from the set (WAS, MIN, TB) lose only once.

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Division Standings
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DAL 10-1 NYG 8-3 WAS 6.5-4.5 PHI 5-6
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WILD CARD
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+ = Giants have head-to-head win
? = will play the Giants
- = Giants have head-to-head loss
0 = won't play the Giants
I don't address possibility of NYG tiebreaks with the teams that have played a tie.


DAL (+?) 10-1 (6-1 CONF) (current NFC East leader)
SEA 7.5-3.5 (current NFC West leader)
DET (?) 7-4 (5-2 CONF) (current NFC North leader)
ATL (0) 7-4 (5-3 CONF) (current NFC south leader)
NYG 8-3 (5-3 CONF) (current wild card 1)
WAS 6.5-4.5 (current wild card 2)
TB (0) 6-5 (5-3 CONF) (wins 2-way tiebreak vs. NYG at 10-6 or 11-5)
MIN (-) 6-5 (4-5 CONF)
NO (+) 5-6 (4-3 CONF)
GB (-) 5-6 (4-4 CONF)
PHI (+?) 5-6 (3-6 CONF)
ARI 4.5-6.5



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Detailed scenarios
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NYG at 13-3:
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NYG get #1 seed if DAL loses to at least 1 team besides NYG. NYG get #5 seed otherwise.

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NYG at 12-4 loss is not to DAL:
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NYG win division if DAL loses to at least 2 teams besides NYG. NYG get #5 seed otherwise.

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NYG at 12-4 loss is to DAL:
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NYG win division if
DAL loses to PHI AND MIN AND DET AND TB
OR
DAL loses to PHI AND MIN AND DET AND NYG take strength of victory

NYG get #5 seed otherwise.

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NYG at 11-5
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DAL wins division if they beat NYG or 2 teams other than NYG. If this doesn't happen and WAS loses 1 game, NYG wins division.

Assuming DAL wins the division the only threats to the Giants are:

Case 1) WAS winning out
Case 2) MIN winning out AND DET goes 11-5 or 12-4.
Case 3) ATL/TB 2nd place team going 11-5. This requires a TB win out and ATL going 11-5 or 12-4. If ATL and TB goes 11-5 there are some cases for which tiebreaks are TBD.

Two of these cases have to happen for the Giants to be eliminated.

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NYG at 10-6
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Assume that DAL wins 1 game (DAL wins division). And assume that GB and NO do not win out (for simplicity).

Then the only threats to NYG are

Case 1) WAS goes 4-1 to get to 10-5-1
Case 2)
MIN going 4-1 to get to 10-6 AND DET doing 10-6 or better
OR
MIN wins out AND DET goes 10-6 and NYG lose to DET
Case 3) the 2nd place team from TB/ATL gets to 10-6 or 11-5. If ATL is the 10-6 team there are some tiebreakers that are TBD.
Case 4) PHI wins out to get to 10-6 AND PHI takes a tiebreak from NYG by having the same or better record vs DAL and WAS (PHI 2-2 in this scenario, NYG currently 1-1).

Two of these cases would have to happen for the Giants to be eliminated.