me, Blevins contract is going to dwarf 2 years 10 million. I'm not saying he's going to get some monster deal but I'm expecting an AAV MUCH closer to 10 per than 5.
RE: It takes a lot for me to change an opinion on a player
me, Blevins contract is going to dwarf 2 years 10 million. I'm not saying he's going to get some monster deal but I'm expecting an AAV MUCH closer to 10 per than 5.
Hey, I said 7. I know the market has gotten crazy. I was actually deferring to you.
me, Blevins contract is going to dwarf 2 years 10 million. I'm not saying he's going to get some monster deal but I'm expecting an AAV MUCH closer to 10 per than 5.
Hey, I said 7. I know the market has gotten crazy. I was actually deferring to you.
I wasn't knocking what you said but I think 7 is still going to be low. I'm predicting either a very high AAV like 2 years 18, or 3 years 21-ish.
but I like him in the 8th inning. I do not like him closing.
And if he's closing it has a domino effect and weakens the 8th inning, which in turn weakens the 7th inning.
the Mets need a bullpen arm with Familia still here, though a lesser one, without him for an undetermined amount of time, it's more critical to get someone and not a JAG, a back of the bullpen guy.
now I have beaten this horse to death. I'm not stressing about it, not clamoring for it, or any other extreme anyone wants to apply to it, but when I'm evaluating the roster the hole without Familia is glaring IMO.
When Mejia was suspended, having Familia worked out perfectly, but that domino effect meant not having an 8th inning guy and cost assets to get Clippard and Reed.
Why give up some of this assets for a guy like Sale? Don't they have arms in the minors? That is why I thought thy signed all these vets to one year deals.
would Houston trade Gattis? They are WS contenders, that's not the kind of team that wants a Zack Wheeler and Gregerson is one of their best relievers. Houston would surely pass on that offer.
I think the assumption is they would want/need Bruce
2.99 FIP, 10.5 k/9, no money left after the season, Gattis 2.6 fWAR in 2016. Trade makes absolutely no sense for Houston. An innings limited SP who has missed 2 seasons aka ??? and an inferior player to the one they are trading (Bruce for Gattis). Maybe a non-contender does that for Wheeler's potential upside but not a legit WS contender. Makes absolutely no sense.
I know he DH's a lot. He's a good hitter but if they are only using him as a DH Bruce sort of replaces that and then you have the potential of Wheeler becoming a TOR starter again by the time the year is out. I dont know...
RE: I think the assumption is they would want/need Bruce
But why would they need Bruce at the expense of Gattis? Gattis 32 homers, .345 wOBA, 119 wRC+, Bruce 33 homers .340 wOBA 111 wRC+ and Gattis can catch, play OF, DH play 1b. Houston also lost Castro, now they are getting rid of their other catcher?
RE: RE: I think the assumption is they would want/need Bruce
But why would they need Bruce at the expense of Gattis? Gattis 32 homers, .345 wOBA, 119 wRC+, Bruce 33 homers .340 wOBA 111 wRC+ and Gattis can catch, play OF, DH play 1b. Houston also lost Castro, now they are getting rid of their other catcher?
They would really have to love Wheeler, be dreaming on him reclaiming his form. I agree, it doesn't make much sense.
I know he DH's a lot. He's a good hitter but if they are only using him as a DH Bruce sort of replaces that and then you have the potential of Wheeler becoming a TOR starter again by the time the year is out. I dont know...
He played 55 games at C last season and they had Castro as the starter. Gattis actually was 18/90 in terms of pitch framing. He's expected to catch a lot more this season with Castro gone. Link - ( New Window )
sure there are teams trying to buy low on lottery ticket Wheeler but contenders aren't giving up proven key pieces of their roster for him. I think more realistically you would see bad teams offering up veteran talent to "take a shot" on him.
sure there are teams trying to buy low on lottery ticket Wheeler but contenders aren't giving up proven key pieces of their roster for him. I think more realistically you would see bad teams offering up veteran talent to "take a shot" on him.
His value is very low and based on recent history they'll use 8 - 12 starting pitchers this year.
His value is highest with the Mets.
Someone like Lugo I could see them trade because although they will need him as a starter at some point, unless you think his 2016 is a floor, he's probably at his peak value.
Most of Lugo's peripherals outshined his FIP unlike Gsellman who was more inline across the board.
He throws hard and doesn't walk too many. He's only just getting his feet wet and everyone can get touched in Vegas who's not a phenom. Id be careful not to look at his Vegas numbers/cup of coffee in the majors as the end all be all. He was much better in the minors 2013-2015. I think he's somebody that could improve under Warthen and at least be a valuable bullpen piece.
His value is very low and based on recent history they'll use 8 - 12 starting pitchers this year.
His value is highest with the Mets.
Someone like Lugo I could see them trade because although they will need him as a starter at some point, unless you think his 2016 is a floor, he's probably at his peak value.
Most of Lugo's peripherals outshined his FIP unlike Gsellman who was more inline across the board.
PJ,
I agree with you however (and admittedly I'm not an expert in spin rate) but Law cited Lugo's spin rate as to why he didn't think there was a big gap between Gsellman (who he likes) and Lugo. I do agree however that Lugo wasn't quite as good as his era.
mom is also extremely nice on twitter (she contacted me not vice versa!)
Cool. What did she say?
She basically sometimes chimes in with information. For example, when Lugo was moved to the pen and was pitching well I tweeted out some numbers and she responded saying they had him throw his CB more (which he lost his feel for) and had found it back in the pen. Little things like that. Gant's dad was really nice too.
The New York Mets biggest need left this offseason is improving the bullpen and according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag Sports, they intend to add at least two left-handed relievers.
The New York Mets biggest need left this offseason is improving the bullpen and according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag Sports, they intend to add at least two left-handed relievers.
I agree with Jon Heyman, but I'd rather hear what Adam Rubin thinks, I think Rubin knows the Mets better
the bullpen. How is it even debatable? Rotation and lineup are virtually set. We are actually trying to unload guys because we have too many pieces. The bench is also full outside of maybe KJ. Salas and Blevins haven't re-signed. Of course the bullpen is virtually the only area we can address.
I'm very interested to see what Sandy does with the BP
seems like we have a lot of tradeable pieces between Bruce, Nimmo, Rivera, Cecchini, Lugo, Robles, Gsellman (only for someone lights out), etc. Obviously we'd be less thrilled dealing some of those guys than others, but the point is we'll likely be a popular team to converse with over the next week.
Someone talk me out of Alex Avila on a 1 year deal Link - ( New Window )
I cant at all. wRC+ of 114 against righties for his career. Good hitter and has been playing good D the last few years. Another perfect platoon candidate for TDA. Good find.
just looking at potential catchers (fully realizing we likely aren't adding a stud). My first choice would be exploring a deal for Cervelli but the Pirates sound like they are pivoting vs. blowing it up. My second choice would probably be buying low on Derek Norris, I'd make the call on Vogt (pitch framing issues and all). I'd call about Wolters (his versatility is very, very intriguing...C/SS/2b? How rare). I'd make the call to Arizona about both Castillo and SSS anomaly Herrmann. I'd cast a very wide net.
just looking at potential catchers (fully realizing we likely aren't adding a stud). My first choice would be exploring a deal for Cervelli but the Pirates sound like they are pivoting vs. blowing it up. My second choice would probably be buying low on Derek Norris, I'd make the call on Vogt (pitch framing issues and all). I'd call about Wolters (his versatility is very, very intriguing...C/SS/2b? How rare). I'd make the call to Arizona about both Castillo and SSS anomaly Herrmann. I'd cast a very wide net.
What about Wieters? You don't consider him a stud right? Still too expensive? Or just not what you think the Mets are looking for?
just looking at potential catchers (fully realizing we likely aren't adding a stud). My first choice would be exploring a deal for Cervelli but the Pirates sound like they are pivoting vs. blowing it up. My second choice would probably be buying low on Derek Norris, I'd make the call on Vogt (pitch framing issues and all). I'd call about Wolters (his versatility is very, very intriguing...C/SS/2b? How rare). I'd make the call to Arizona about both Castillo and SSS anomaly Herrmann. I'd cast a very wide net.
What about Wieters? You don't consider him a stud right? Still too expensive? Or just not what you think the Mets are looking for?
I'm not high on Wieters given his likely price. Oft-injured, Boras client, terrible pitch framer. If you told me he could be had for say 3 years at his rough actual value... say 12-13 per I'd probably do it but that would be my absolute max. No way more than 3 years, he's really trending the wrong way (note the Orioles didn't even want him back and they won what? nearly 90 games? and they don't have a replacement on the roster). If the market fell to the point he took a "fair" deal I'd take him but otherwise I don't really like him. Overrated thanks to his previous prospect status. I don't think most people realize he's 31 this season.
probably offer up Nimmo for Vogt (Beane liked him previously). Nothing against Nimmo at all but Vogt was 5th in fWAR, 4th in wOBA, 4th in wRC+ the past 2 seasons at his position. He's also a poor pitch framer but he'd still represent an upgrade and he's cheap/cost controlled through any years you would want him.
just looking at potential catchers (fully realizing we likely aren't adding a stud). My first choice would be exploring a deal for Cervelli but the Pirates sound like they are pivoting vs. blowing it up. My second choice would probably be buying low on Derek Norris, I'd make the call on Vogt (pitch framing issues and all). I'd call about Wolters (his versatility is very, very intriguing...C/SS/2b? How rare). I'd make the call to Arizona about both Castillo and SSS anomaly Herrmann. I'd cast a very wide net.
What about Wieters? You don't consider him a stud right? Still too expensive? Or just not what you think the Mets are looking for?
I'm not high on Wieters given his likely price. Oft-injured, Boras client, terrible pitch framer. If you told me he could be had for say 3 years at his rough actual value... say 12-13 per I'd probably do it but that would be my absolute max. No way more than 3 years, he's really trending the wrong way (note the Orioles didn't even want him back and they won what? nearly 90 games? and they don't have a replacement on the roster). If the market fell to the point he took a "fair" deal I'd take him but otherwise I don't really like him. Overrated thanks to his previous prospect status. I don't think most people realize he's 31 this season.
Yeah, I know how old he is, and he went from phenom to jag very quickly.
I just like him better than Vogt if Wieters could be signed to a reasonable deal, Seems like the bulk of the Mets fans on this site seem to want to acquire Vogt and he's a 32/33 year old jag, so is Wieters at this point (slightly younger), but for Wieters it's just money.
on Wieters. He stinks. A 3 year deal would be a disaster. I'd take him for one year at around $7M but he'll almost surely get more than that. I'm willing to predict that TDA has a better season next year than Wieters.
probably offer up Nimmo for Vogt (Beane liked him previously). Nothing against Nimmo at all but Vogt was 5th in fWAR, 4th in wOBA, 4th in wRC+ the past 2 seasons at his position. He's also a poor pitch framer but he'd still represent an upgrade and he's cheap/cost controlled through any years you would want him.
I think Beane would want more for Vogt. Would you give him Gsellman for Vogt?
probably offer up Nimmo for Vogt (Beane liked him previously). Nothing against Nimmo at all but Vogt was 5th in fWAR, 4th in wOBA, 4th in wRC+ the past 2 seasons at his position. He's also a poor pitch framer but he'd still represent an upgrade and he's cheap/cost controlled through any years you would want him.
I think Beane would want more for Vogt. Would you give him Gsellman for Vogt?
Thing is, and this isn't a Mets knock but there IS a budget and the price between the 2 players is pretty significant so if my choices are more money spent on the pen + Vogt minus Nimmo or committing big money to Wieters at the expense of the pen I'm going with the Vogt option. I already mentioned this but the Orioles not only didn't offer Wieters the QO but they didn't even engage him in extension talks (though there has been some talk they told him if he doesn't find his "big" deal to give them a call. That's pretty damning for a team sans catcher.
This past season Wieters
88 wRC+
.307 wOBA
.165 ISO
(and as I stated a poor pitch framer)
Reportedly looking for 4 years 60 million
Vogt (and again I'm not some massive Vogt proponent) but-
93 wRC+
.305 wOBA
.155 ISO
and will cost a projected 3.7 million which you can walk away from after the year or hold his rights through 2019.
If Wieters falls into a "fair" range I'm in. But 4 years would be really, really dumb.
lol. It's kind of crazy too because his second half of 2015 also 2.34 FIP, 9 K/9, 2.25 BB/9! He's been good for a looooong time now.
Hey, I said 7. I know the market has gotten crazy. I was actually deferring to you.
Quote:
me, Blevins contract is going to dwarf 2 years 10 million. I'm not saying he's going to get some monster deal but I'm expecting an AAV MUCH closer to 10 per than 5.
Hey, I said 7. I know the market has gotten crazy. I was actually deferring to you.
I wasn't knocking what you said but I think 7 is still going to be low. I'm predicting either a very high AAV like 2 years 18, or 3 years 21-ish.
Jesus. Sale on the Nationals would scare the shit out of me. Could care less about McCutchen.
And if he's closing it has a domino effect and weakens the 8th inning, which in turn weakens the 7th inning.
the Mets need a bullpen arm with Familia still here, though a lesser one, without him for an undetermined amount of time, it's more critical to get someone and not a JAG, a back of the bullpen guy.
now I have beaten this horse to death. I'm not stressing about it, not clamoring for it, or any other extreme anyone wants to apply to it, but when I'm evaluating the roster the hole without Familia is glaring IMO.
Anything else would be irresponsible.
When Mejia was suspended, having Familia worked out perfectly, but that domino effect meant not having an 8th inning guy and cost assets to get Clippard and Reed.
Lol, maybe I've always misunderstood the meaning of "lead".
Quote:
Nationals and Braves part of 5 teams in "lead" in potential Sale deal per @JonHeyman
Lol, maybe I've always misunderstood the meaning of "lead".
Supposedly half the league is bidding
Link - ( New Window )
But why would they need Bruce at the expense of Gattis? Gattis 32 homers, .345 wOBA, 119 wRC+, Bruce 33 homers .340 wOBA 111 wRC+ and Gattis can catch, play OF, DH play 1b. Houston also lost Castro, now they are getting rid of their other catcher?
Quote:
I agree it seems far fetched though.
But why would they need Bruce at the expense of Gattis? Gattis 32 homers, .345 wOBA, 119 wRC+, Bruce 33 homers .340 wOBA 111 wRC+ and Gattis can catch, play OF, DH play 1b. Houston also lost Castro, now they are getting rid of their other catcher?
They would really have to love Wheeler, be dreaming on him reclaiming his form. I agree, it doesn't make much sense.
He played 55 games at C last season and they had Castro as the starter. Gattis actually was 18/90 in terms of pitch framing. He's expected to catch a lot more this season with Castro gone.
Link - ( New Window )
Agree. Makes sense.
His value is very low and based on recent history they'll use 8 - 12 starting pitchers this year.
His value is highest with the Mets.
Someone like Lugo I could see them trade because although they will need him as a starter at some point, unless you think his 2016 is a floor, he's probably at his peak value.
Most of Lugo's peripherals outshined his FIP unlike Gsellman who was more inline across the board.
His value is very low and based on recent history they'll use 8 - 12 starting pitchers this year.
His value is highest with the Mets.
Someone like Lugo I could see them trade because although they will need him as a starter at some point, unless you think his 2016 is a floor, he's probably at his peak value.
Most of Lugo's peripherals outshined his FIP unlike Gsellman who was more inline across the board.
PJ,
I agree with you however (and admittedly I'm not an expert in spin rate) but Law cited Lugo's spin rate as to why he didn't think there was a big gap between Gsellman (who he likes) and Lugo. I do agree however that Lugo wasn't quite as good as his era.
Cool. What did she say?
Quote:
mom is also extremely nice on twitter (she contacted me not vice versa!)
Cool. What did she say?
She basically sometimes chimes in with information. For example, when Lugo was moved to the pen and was pitching well I tweeted out some numbers and she responded saying they had him throw his CB more (which he lost his feel for) and had found it back in the pen. Little things like that. Gant's dad was really nice too.
Small move if they sign him, but he can fill so many needs and has some good at-bats.
Wouldn't want him as a starter, but nice bench bat.
Small move if they sign him, but he can fill so many needs and has some good at-bats.
Wouldn't want him as a starter, but nice bench bat.
Supposedly both sides have interest but haven't discussed a contract yet.
I agree with Jon Heyman, but I'd rather hear what Adam Rubin thinks, I think Rubin knows the Mets better
Link - ( New Window )
I cant at all. wRC+ of 114 against righties for his career. Good hitter and has been playing good D the last few years. Another perfect platoon candidate for TDA. Good find.
What about Wieters? You don't consider him a stud right? Still too expensive? Or just not what you think the Mets are looking for?
Quote:
just looking at potential catchers (fully realizing we likely aren't adding a stud). My first choice would be exploring a deal for Cervelli but the Pirates sound like they are pivoting vs. blowing it up. My second choice would probably be buying low on Derek Norris, I'd make the call on Vogt (pitch framing issues and all). I'd call about Wolters (his versatility is very, very intriguing...C/SS/2b? How rare). I'd make the call to Arizona about both Castillo and SSS anomaly Herrmann. I'd cast a very wide net.
What about Wieters? You don't consider him a stud right? Still too expensive? Or just not what you think the Mets are looking for?
I'm not high on Wieters given his likely price. Oft-injured, Boras client, terrible pitch framer. If you told me he could be had for say 3 years at his rough actual value... say 12-13 per I'd probably do it but that would be my absolute max. No way more than 3 years, he's really trending the wrong way (note the Orioles didn't even want him back and they won what? nearly 90 games? and they don't have a replacement on the roster). If the market fell to the point he took a "fair" deal I'd take him but otherwise I don't really like him. Overrated thanks to his previous prospect status. I don't think most people realize he's 31 this season.
Quote:
In comment 13244397 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
just looking at potential catchers (fully realizing we likely aren't adding a stud). My first choice would be exploring a deal for Cervelli but the Pirates sound like they are pivoting vs. blowing it up. My second choice would probably be buying low on Derek Norris, I'd make the call on Vogt (pitch framing issues and all). I'd call about Wolters (his versatility is very, very intriguing...C/SS/2b? How rare). I'd make the call to Arizona about both Castillo and SSS anomaly Herrmann. I'd cast a very wide net.
What about Wieters? You don't consider him a stud right? Still too expensive? Or just not what you think the Mets are looking for?
I'm not high on Wieters given his likely price. Oft-injured, Boras client, terrible pitch framer. If you told me he could be had for say 3 years at his rough actual value... say 12-13 per I'd probably do it but that would be my absolute max. No way more than 3 years, he's really trending the wrong way (note the Orioles didn't even want him back and they won what? nearly 90 games? and they don't have a replacement on the roster). If the market fell to the point he took a "fair" deal I'd take him but otherwise I don't really like him. Overrated thanks to his previous prospect status. I don't think most people realize he's 31 this season.
Yeah, I know how old he is, and he went from phenom to jag very quickly.
I just like him better than Vogt if Wieters could be signed to a reasonable deal, Seems like the bulk of the Mets fans on this site seem to want to acquire Vogt and he's a 32/33 year old jag, so is Wieters at this point (slightly younger), but for Wieters it's just money.
I think Beane would want more for Vogt. Would you give him Gsellman for Vogt?
Quote:
probably offer up Nimmo for Vogt (Beane liked him previously). Nothing against Nimmo at all but Vogt was 5th in fWAR, 4th in wOBA, 4th in wRC+ the past 2 seasons at his position. He's also a poor pitch framer but he'd still represent an upgrade and he's cheap/cost controlled through any years you would want him.
I think Beane would want more for Vogt. Would you give him Gsellman for Vogt?
Are you insane?
Thing is, and this isn't a Mets knock but there IS a budget and the price between the 2 players is pretty significant so if my choices are more money spent on the pen + Vogt minus Nimmo or committing big money to Wieters at the expense of the pen I'm going with the Vogt option. I already mentioned this but the Orioles not only didn't offer Wieters the QO but they didn't even engage him in extension talks (though there has been some talk they told him if he doesn't find his "big" deal to give them a call. That's pretty damning for a team sans catcher.
This past season Wieters
88 wRC+
.307 wOBA
.165 ISO
(and as I stated a poor pitch framer)
Reportedly looking for 4 years 60 million
Vogt (and again I'm not some massive Vogt proponent) but-
93 wRC+
.305 wOBA
.155 ISO
and will cost a projected 3.7 million which you can walk away from after the year or hold his rights through 2019.
If Wieters falls into a "fair" range I'm in. But 4 years would be really, really dumb.