NFT: Cespedes back to the Mets

would not give up Gsellman for Vogt and would only forfeit Nimmo because we do have Conforto/Cespedes going forward so if God forbid we need to add another OF in the off-season next year, so be it.

would give up Lugo+ for Cervelli but again I can't imagine the Pirates are giving him up.

returns after all

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman 9m9 minutes ago Jersey City, NJ
rene rivera settles with mets, $1.75M

Wieters a long-term contract, but I'd give him slightly more on a one-year deal if it comes down to it.

Switch-hitter with some pop and a decent arm to throw out runners.

I believe you on the pitch framing, but I'm still somewhat skeptical of defensive metrics, so I'm not sure what to believe about pitch framing as a measurable. But regardless I think Wieters is a better fit.

It's like people on here hear the name Vogt and think he's Johnny Bench. He's practically identical to Wieters without the switch hitting.

At this point I feel the Mets have a few year window, I'd overpay short-term while this window is around as opposed to prospects.

Nimmo I'd trade though so if that's all it took for Vogt I wouldn't care, but you know it will wind up Nimmo and Szapucki for Vogt and I'll have to hate the guy.

At 1.75 mil I'm guessing they can still look at other catchers.

pitch framing is more straight forward than other defensive metrics. Teams (basically) use visual graphs based on "actual" strike zone vs. the % of strikes called for x catcher. It's a bit more complicated than that (if you are actually interested I would talk to Matt Simon on twitter) but that's the basic gist.

For whatever reason his value isn't that high right now in spit of him basically being the best hitter in the PCL last year. His patience/eye is rare for a hitter so young. On top of that, we are dealing Bruce and Granderson is turning 36. We are dangerously thin in the OF. Do we really want Lagares as our only depth if we lose a starter to injury? What if two guys go down?

In comment 13244431 DanMetroMan said:

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returns after all Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman 9m9 minutes ago Jersey City, NJ rene rivera settles with mets, $1.75M

Like I had mentioned the other day, given the other FA options, this is not a terrible decision. He did a really good job handling our pitchers last year.

Wasn't a knock... just if my options are trade Nimmo for Vogt or sign Suzuki and keep Nimmo I'm certainly going with the latter.

is one of the worst pitch framers in baseball (on par with Wieters) and has been worth .5 fWAR the past 2 seasons COMBINED. Not trying to argue with you but I'm not understanding your interest in Suzuki. He's a bad baseball player.
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 13244485 DanMetroMan said:

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is one of the worst pitch framers in baseball (on par with Wieters) and has been worth .5 fWAR the past 2 seasons COMBINED. Not trying to argue with you but I'm not understanding your interest in Suzuki. He's a bad baseball player. Link - ( New Window )

In 2015 he had an awful year with the bat and that is why you are getting that. He's a decent hitter for a catcher and he's graded positively defensively as a catcher every year of his career. He also hits righties better than lefties for his career. Im not saying he's great but I dont think he would be difficult to obtain.

1. Cervelli (unlikely)
2. Norris
3. Wolters
4. Vogt (depends on the price)
5. Castillo
6. Wieters (his ranking would depend on cost, I'd move him up if he's take 2 years but he's looking for 4)
7. Herrmann (probably sucks but was really impressive in limited time last season)
8. No idea, some guy I haven't thought of/didn't know was available like a Tom Murphy

Im not comparing him to somebody like Wieters but if I was? Wieters hasn't been a 2 WAR player in any of the last 3 years either. 87 wRC+ to 97 wRC+. Wieters is better but not by a whole lot.

In comment 13244493 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

In comment 13244485 DanMetroMan said: Quote: is one of the worst pitch framers in baseball (on par with Wieters) and has been worth .5 fWAR the past 2 seasons COMBINED. Not trying to argue with you but I'm not understanding your interest in Suzuki. He's a bad baseball player. Link - ( New Window ) In 2015 he had an awful year with the bat and that is why you are getting that. He's a decent hitter for a catcher and he's graded positively defensively as a catcher every year of his career. He also hits righties better than lefties for his career. Im not saying he's great but I dont think he would be difficult to obtain.

But he was worth 0.6 fWAR during the 2016 season as well (with poor framing numbers) at that point you might as well just hope TDA/Rivera/Plawecki somehow have good seasons. Suzuki has been a league average regular (barely) twice since 2009 (2014 and 2011). If we are going to bring on a guy who "gives away" strikes I'd have to have offense to off-set it and I don't think he brings that.

breaking TDA of that shitty habit of wrapping the bat around his head. Just an awful setup at the plate. Yastremski got away with it but TDA ain't Yaz.

In comment 13244501 ZGiants98 said:

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Im not comparing him to somebody like Wieters but if I was? Wieters hasn't been a 2 WAR player in any of the last 3 years either. 87 wRC+ to 97 wRC+. Wieters is better but not by a whole lot.

2015 Matt Wieters played 26 games so to include that as "last 3" is beyond ridiculous no offense. I'm already on record not wanting Wieters but 2016

Wieters 1.7 fWAR
Suzuki 0.6 fWAR

So Wieters was 3 times more valuable over 18 more games played. Suzuki last 3 seasons combined...2.5 fWAR.

are "starters" and some of which are even all-stars. I look at Wieters and Norris, ect. and I dont see Suzuki all that far off and I wouldn't be counting Suzuki as a starter on our team. TDA is still the guy. What I do want is somebody that isn't going to completely fall in his ass if TDA goes down or needs a blow against a tough righty. Mainly, somebody that is at least half way competent with the bat.

Just an idea. Im open to almost everyone.

In comment 13244506 Rob in Rockaway said:

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breaking TDA of that shitty habit of wrapping the bat around his head. Just an awful setup at the plate. Yastremski got away with it but TDA ain't Yaz.

I don't like it either. He has a pretty slow bat/long swing to begin with. Very odd Long didn't move him away from that. I was hoping he would look into working with Bobby Tewksbary aka "The swing king". Guy is credited with "fixing" both Josh Donaldson and JD Martinez. Matt Joyce has been working with him which apparently is part of the reason the A's gambled on him.

In comment 13244510 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 13244501 ZGiants98 said: Quote: Im not comparing him to somebody like Wieters but if I was? Wieters hasn't been a 2 WAR player in any of the last 3 years either. 87 wRC+ to 97 wRC+. Wieters is better but not by a whole lot. 2015 Matt Wieters played 26 games so to include that as "last 3" is beyond ridiculous no offense. I'm already on record not wanting Wieters but 2016 Wieters 1.7 fWAR Suzuki 0.6 fWAR So Wieters was 3 times more valuable over 18 more games played. Suzuki last 3 seasons combined...2.5 fWAR.

Only looked at it in quick glance. Wasn't really looking at his games. Hasn't been a 2 fWAR player in three years is still worth noting IMO. I already mentioned Suzuki was horrid in 2015 so I dont really get comparing that year or driving it home further.

In comment 13244506 Rob in Rockaway said:

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breaking TDA of that shitty habit of wrapping the bat around his head. Just an awful setup at the plate. Yastremski got away with it but TDA ain't Yaz.

Said the same thing every single game last year. According to people familiar with the situation he went AGAINST Long's wished (what worked in 2015) the moment he struggled and thought he would be more comfortable going back to worked in college. Moronic if you ask me.

Early next year. Im betting Long get's him back on track. Can he stay healthy? Much bigger question.

Seems like a nice cheap add?

I really think the Mets/A's line up nicely for a potential RP/OF swap

In comment 13244533 ZGiants98 said:

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Seems like a nice cheap add?

Considering defense he's roughly a Rivera caliber addition. With Rivera back I'd aim higher, younger or not even bother.

and only be on the hook for roughly 16% of his contract. In that light, it was a complete no-brainer.

In comment 13244535 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 13244533 ZGiants98 said: Quote: Seems like a nice cheap add? Considering defense he's roughly a Rivera caliber addition. With Rivera back I'd aim higher, younger or not even bother.

Much better hitter though against righties?

He's better vs RHP

much...much...much...

lol.

All good. Im done talking about catchers. We'll see what happens. he

on what to expect from Wright this year?

I've read things all the way from retire to DL (so they get the insurance), to the starting 3B.

Obviously you can't count on him, and I think this year's backup plan is better than 2016, but where does the truth lie if there is one on Wright?

In comment 13244581 pjcas18 said:

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on what to expect from Wright this year? I've read things all the way from retire to DL (so they get the insurance), to the starting 3B. Obviously you can't count on him, and I think this year's backup plan is better than 2016, but where does the truth lie if there is one on Wright?

Sandy said they are "hopeful" Wright will be ready for ST and admitted they don't know what to expect.

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 43s43 seconds ago
The #Nats get their catcher, acquiring Derek Norris of the #Padres

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Michael Mayer ‏@themainemets Derek Norris was somehow worse offensively than Travis d'Arnaud in 2016.

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Michael Mayer ‏@themainemets 9m9 minutes ago Michael Mayer Retweeted Michael Mayer TDA was a better pitch framer too.

had an awful year but 2013-2015 he was 9th in fWAR, 2014 he was an all-star, 2013-2015 he was worth 2+ fWAR every season. TDA has done that... once.

not back.

LOL, I'm not defending Michal Mayer's tweets, only sharing them.

In comment 13244822 pjcas18 said:

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not back. LOL, I'm not defending Michal Mayer's tweets, only sharing them.

Hey I hope TDA is great, just saying we could have conceivably had both or 2 "lottery tickets"

I think catcher is one of those upgradeable positions.

I haven't given up on TDA yet though, I'm stubborn.

He has to be healthy one of these seasons, right?

sign Recker 800k

and back end disaster? If he is fantastic for 2 years and a dog for the back two then The cost seems very high. If he does produce for 4 years then is still a high price deal but you get some value

Cespedes has been a 4+ fWAR player over his 1.5 seasons with the Mets. If he's worth say 4.5, 4.5 x 8 million (1 fWar) then he will be worth roughly 80 million his first 2 years alone. As team friendly as a star deal gets

Mets will merely "break even" value wise at roughly 13 fWAR over the entirety of the deal. Career altering injury is the only way this is a "bad" deal

When you look at the contracts that currently extend PAST the Ces contract. Wayyyyy past.

New CBA made it a no brainer - timing wasn't a coincidence.

Speaking of CBA. Huge win for Owners, again. Mets hurt by draft pick rule change.

non-tendered by AZ.

I'd take a flier, hasn't had much MLB success, but throws gas. Not throwing 100 anymore, but still tops 95.

See if Warthen can fix him, he's the kind of reclamation project might be cheap and worth it.

we got 4 likely prime years where he's going to be an above average (possibly GG) LF'er and a prolific RH power hitter, which is currently one of the rarest commodities in the sport. Huge steal, thought we'd definitely need to go 5 years.

He's a really good fit if Beane is in the mood to sell high. He's 32 and has so little long term upside I don't see why Beane wouldn't be interested in selling high. His K% and pitches per plate appearance would be a welcomed help in lengthening the lineup and reducing some of the hot/cold slumps. I know Dan's mentioned his pitch framing deficiencies but in the 2 years before '16 he was much more neutral, so hopefully that was just an aberration. He's probably the best realistically available catcher out there, and he just so happens to be a good lefty compliment to TdA. Nimmo + Robles for Vogt + Doolittle.

Castillo should be a no-brainer at this point, I'd love Tyson Ross as well replacing Dickey/lottery ticket but I'd be shocked

In comment 13245162 DanMetroMan said:

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Castillo should be a no-brainer at this point, I'd love Tyson Ross as well replacing Dickey/lottery ticket but I'd be shocked

It's funny, when browsing C's Castillo looked to be a great fit but it seemed like there'd be no reason for AZ to move him for a reasonable return, and then they non-tender him. He k's a ton but other than that he's a no-brainer upgrade over Rivera in almost every category. I'd understand them not immediately pouncing if there are better options out there but he'd be a good add.

In comment 13245162 DanMetroMan said:

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Castillo should be a no-brainer at this point, I'd love Tyson Ross as well replacing Dickey/lottery ticket but I'd be shocked

This. . is it time to give up on TDA? Platoon situation?

Plawecki is not a major league hitter, unfortunately.

In comment 13244855 xman said:

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and back end disaster? If he is fantastic for 2 years and a dog for the back two then The cost seems very high. If he does produce for 4 years then is still a high price deal but you get some value

I can't see Cespedes sucking that much at age 34-35. As long as he is happy with the organization and the team, he won't let his teammates down.

In comment 13245172 spike said:

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In comment 13245162 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Castillo should be a no-brainer at this point, I'd love Tyson Ross as well replacing Dickey/lottery ticket but I'd be shocked This. . is it time to give up on TDA? Platoon situation? Plawecki is not a major league hitter, unfortunately.

It's not time to give up on TDA, but it is time to have a legitimate plan B. Going into ST without a better one than Rivera/Plawecki would be negligent.

In comment 13245173 spike said:

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I can't see Cespedes sucking that much at age 34-35. As long as he is happy with the organization and the team, he won't let his teammates down.

Unfortunately, desire to not let teammates down has little effect on ability to get around on a fastball.