NFT: Yankees CBA/Winter Meetings Hot Stove thread

is going to be even better. They are all tough outs

would be an injustice in my view. The teams that go over the luxury tax are already paying for salaries for the smaller market. The Yanks will most always need to overpay to bring a free agent and their family to New York where it is high cost and taxes, a rough environment for success, the weather is not the best, and a constant spotlight. Much easier for many free agents to choose a place like Arlington Texas to move their family. The history of the franchise does not carry a big draw for these players. Losing a draft pick plus paying for small market teams is double jeopardy. If a Hal Steinbrenner (and other big market teams) does not spend money to avoid losing draft choices, it won't be good for free agents in the long run.

yes you want small-market teams to compete, but you also want to keep salaries down (which allows small market teams to compete). And if the big markets have at least a modicum of homegrown, cost-controlled talent it does just that. If you force a big-market team to choose and they opt to exceed the luxury tax and forfeit a pick, the likelihood is that they would keep doing so. Think the Yankees from the early 2000's. They had limited answers on the farm, so they bought, which cost them draft picks, which obligated them to continue buying. And imagine a team like the Angels, who are both top-heavy on salary and saddled with a barren farm system. Unless the luxury tax ceiling is increased significantly or they somehow find a way to deal Pujols, they're going to be stuck with a shitty roster because they won't be able to fund the mid-level FAs that could make them a little more competitive as they re-grow the farm.

Should be getting close to getting up the cap. They still have CC and the last year of A-Rods deal taking big chunks, but some big contracts have ended and they have traded away others.

Not so devastating as people think for the Yanks. Yes, they have been over the tax line basically every year since it was implemented. However, the tax line appears likely to come in around $200M for 2017.

Remember that the Yanks have $136,150,000 set in current salaries and a conservative estimate of about $25M for arbitration guys. That would be around $160-161M for 14 guys.

Let's suppose the Yanks sign Beltran for $18M and Melancon for $12M. That's another $30M. Let's also assume that they sign 4-5 vet guys on low salary deals to compete for spots (C, SP, etc) and that 4 guys make the roster and add another $10M on. That would bring payroll to just about $200M for about 20 players.

Then, we add on another $10-12M in administrative costs that are included in the luxury tax, and approximately $12M for 20 more minimum to just above minimum salary guys.

That would be a total of around $220-225M in payroll.

However, let us suppose that the Yanks trade Gardner and Pineda and get prospects back. It would be doubtful that the Yanks would have to eat any of either contract- Gardner is getting paid the going rate for OF these days and Pineda is arbitration eligible. That would likely shave around $20M off the payroll and get the total around $200-205M.

If the Yanks trade Headley too, and eat around $4M annually on that deal, the Yanks would save another $8.5M- which would comfortably get them below $200M.

In reality, the Yanks should have multiple avenues to get below $200M in 2017.

Maybe they sign Carter to DH/1B instead of Beltran. Maybe they trade Gardner for a cheap SP and trade Pineda for prospects and sign Moss for LF/DH.

If this CBA had been done last year, the Yanks would have been in a hard spot. However, with the young guys arriving this year and more coming later in the season, they can get under the luxury tax limit if they want to without a lot of work.

Furthermore, with CC ($25M), ARod ($27.5M for luxury tax purposes), Clippard ($6.5M) and Pineda (between $9M and $.8.5M) coming off the books after 2017, they are home free after 2017 for luxury tax purposes.

I really only want the Yanks to add a vet arm for the rotation and spend on RP. Then when we lose Arod and CC contracts go for a stud young hitter. There will be plenty available.

includes notes on Chris Carter and others.
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No more teams tanking...just have two tiers of money both domestically and internationally with post season teams getting less. Penalties for going over is less money next year. Losing a free agent could be additional money.

Cespedes & ARod at $27.5 million!

In comment 13241239 TheMick7 said:

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Cespedes & ARod at $27.5 million!

A-Rod's AAV was $27 but he will "only" make $21 this year.

In comment 13241215 blue2 said:

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No more teams tanking...just have two tiers of money both domestically and internationally with post season teams getting less. Penalties for going over is less money next year. Losing a free agent could be additional money.

Draft isn't going anywhere. It was first implemented as a way to stop teams from signing anyone they wanted (see Yankees) & allows teams to get back into the pennant chase if they draft wisely (Astros,Mets,Cubs & maybe soon the Braves) Teams are still under a financial cap w/the draft (Go to River Ave Blues & read their excellent article on how the Yankees were able to get Rutherford, even though he was a top 10 talent) so many guys drafted earlier are college guys that will take under the # for that slot. There are already penalties in the domestic & international draft for going over. The Yankees have been penalized in the international draft the last 2 years.

the international draft would be a clusterfuck though. But the draft pools do give the shitty teams a shot to add top talent while also allowing other teams to choose different sorts of strategies to add prospects.

Jeff PassanVerified account
þ@JeffPassan
Sources: Likelihood Andrew McCutchen plays in Pittsburgh in 2017 is dwindling. As @Ken_Rosenthal said, Pirates almost certain to move him.

With the two wild card team system, tanking and the unbalanced schedule create serious issues when it comes to fair competition. Getting rid of the draft means all non post season teams get the same money to spend on amateur talent. The goal is to get all teams to play to win every game and right now that does not happen and some teams benefit from this and others do not. With getting into the post season coming down to maybe one or two additional wins, something needs to be done to create more fairness.

Go look at the draft over the last 20 seasons and how many of the top 3 picks each year have become stars players? Sure there is a better chance of a team finding success but many don't make it. I think getting rid of the draft will force teams to scout better and make better decisions. They set up the draft today to be all about money and slots so why not just give rid of it and make it all about money? Limiting money is what the owners are trying to do so just have two tiers one dollar amount for non post season and a smaller about for post season teams.

of every major pro sport for as long as the majority of us have been watching them. It does help with parity, at least to an extent. Small market teams use the draft and "down years" to load up and succeed. Chicago rebuilt with Schwarber and Bryant, among others; Houston rebuilt and is moving forward with Correa, Bregman and others. It's not the only way to do it, but it helps.

if they can't add something like Chapman and Beltran at a minimum. Even with just Beltran as the only quality bat added, the lineup won't be very good. They'll have to get creative with some trades again if they want to compete again next season. That's why I like the idea of trading for a guy like McCutchen. They have the depth to make a move like that and if you add Beltran and someone like McCutchen to the lineup, it looks so much better.

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Ken Rosenthal þ@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
Draft-pick compensation idea in play in CBA talks, per source: Rather than lose a pick for signing a qualifying offer free agent . . .

Ken Rosenthal þ@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
. . . a wealthy revenue-sharing payor would slide back, say, five slots in draft. So, if #Dodgers signed QO FA, picking at No. 25 . . .
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Ken Rosenthal þ@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
. . . They would fall back to No. 30, a less onerous penalty than losing a pick. Again, this is simply a proposal, an idea being discussed.
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Jeff Passan þ@JeffPassan 2m2 minutes ago
Sources: Important distinction on Andrew McCutchen -- Pirates aren't sitting back, taking calls. Been the aggressors, offering him to teams.

not complaining but that amounts to eliminating the penalty for signing a QO player.

don't understand, so the only advantage of offering a QO would be the potential of your player accepting and coming back for 1 year? Seems like there would be far, far fewer QO's offered to begin with.

but damn, this is an encouraging time to be a Yankee fan. I can't wait to see some of these young players mature. Although we have so many infield prospects - seems like a few of them will end up as trade bait.

enough to make you think twice (huge difference in talent between 5-10 and 10-15, even between 10-15 and 15-20) but not enough to make you punt an entire draft because you signed a FA.

but i'd love to see players making a larger piece of the pie with shackles taken off franchises that choose to spend money. Since teams effectively own their players with very affordable contracts through most of their prime seasons, and without the ongoing issue of PEDs extending the prime seasons for players, every team has the same ability to draft and develop into a contender.

I think it hurts the bad-to-mediocre teams more (assuming there isn't an exemption for teams picking top 15). Dropping from 10-15 is usually worse than dropping from 25-30. So it might be enough to deter a 'bad' team from signing a FA, while having little to no impact on the decision for the top teams.

In comment 13241672 Dunedin81 said:

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enough to make you think twice (huge difference in talent between 5-10 and 10-15, even between 10-15 and 15-20) but not enough to make you punt an entire draft because you signed a FA.

I don't think anybody is passing on signing a major FA because they are dropping from 10-15. At the end of the day even picks 5-10 really come down to the scouts. It's not as if there are usually 5 consensus studs followed by 5 turds. This years draft nobody even had a consensus #1 overall pick and the 2 guys who looked headed to #1 Puk and Groome went 6 and 12.

Holliday emerging as a fallback at DH. Would be a solid signing, a good clubhouse guy who is a strong candidate to rebound into a mid-rotation bat.
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In comment 13241691 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 13241672 Dunedin81 said: Quote: enough to make you think twice (huge difference in talent between 5-10 and 10-15, even between 10-15 and 15-20) but not enough to make you punt an entire draft because you signed a FA. I don't think anybody is passing on signing a major FA because they are dropping from 10-15. At the end of the day even picks 5-10 really come down to the scouts. It's not as if there are usually 5 consensus studs followed by 5 turds. This years draft nobody even had a consensus #1 overall pick and the 2 guys who looked headed to #1 Puk and Groome went 6 and 12.

You can get top talent from 11-20, but the percentage of top 10 guys who become at least quality major leaguers is much higher. There are certainly no sure things in baseball, and guys like Fernandez, Sale and Giolito were picked in the teens, but the number of flat-out failures (excluding injury) in the Top 10 is actually surprisingly low. Maybe 20-30% at most.

In comment 13241695 Dunedin81 said:

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Holliday emerging as a fallback at DH. Would be a solid signing, a good clubhouse guy who is a strong candidate to rebound into a mid-rotation bat. Link - ( New Window )

Surprisingly hot market for Holliday. Colorado reportedly interested in him at 1b. I guess that's where the market. The list is ridiculously bad.

Ken Rosenthal þ@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
Vote authorizing commissioner to lock out players would take place only if owners felt they were at point of no return in talks.
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Ken Rosenthal þ@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
Three possible outcomes with midnight expiration of CBA: 1. Deal. 2. Extension of current CBA as talks continue. 3. Owners vote on lockout.

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He will get more years than I want but he has a great bat.

Before they dole out deals because they want to know what the threshold for the luxury tax will be.

new labor deal is very close.

offseason for the Yanks. I wonder if it will lead the Yanks to go 4 years on Encarnacion rather than 1-2 on Beltran.