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NY Times simulator (running it 3 times to see simulator variability):
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NYG seed:
#1) 4%, 3%, 3%
#2) 1%, 1%, 2%
#3) less than 1%, 1%, less than 1%
#4) less than 1%, less than 1%, less than 1%
#5) 66%, 62%, 57%
#6) 17%, 20%, 19%
No playoffs: 13%, 14%, 19%
Beat PIT:
#1) 10%, 8%, 10%
#2) 2%, 2%, 3%
#3) 1%, 1%, 1%
#4) less than 1%, less than 1%, less than 1%
#5) 66%, 71%, 69%
#6) 14%, 14%, 11%
No playoffs: 7%, 5%, 6%
Lose to PIT:
#1) 2%, 2%, 2%
#2) less than 1%, 1%, less than 1%
#3) less than 1%, less than 1%, less than 1%
#4) less than 1%, less than 1%, less than 1%
#5) 52%, 51%, 55%
#6) 19%, 20%, 17%
No playoffs: 26%, 27%, 25%
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Quick Summary
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To win division need to beat DAL and make up 1 1/2 other games in the standings on DAL.
Not making it at 11-5 will require WAS and TB to win out and other stuff as well.
At 10-6 significant problem arises if WAS and TB lose only once. Also PHI, MIN could win out. There could also be a problem in cases where GB and NO win out, but I'm not going into that.
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Division Standings
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DAL 11-1 NYG 8-3 WAS 6.5-4.5 PHI 5-6
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WILD CARD
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+ = Giants have head-to-head win
? = will play the Giants
- = Giants have head-to-head loss
0 = won't play the Giants
I don't address possibility of NYG tiebreaks with the teams that have played a tie.
DAL (+?) 11-1 (current NFC East leader)
SEA 7.5-3.5 (current NFC West leader)
DET (?) 7-4 (5-2 CONF) (current NFC North leader)
ATL (0) 7-4 (5-3 CONF) (current NFC south leader)
NYG 8-3 (5-3 CONF) (current wild card 1)
WAS 6.5-4.5 (current wild card 2)
TB (0) 6-5 (5-3 CONF)
MIN (-) 6-6 (4-6 CONF)
NO (+) 5-6 (4-3 CONF)
GB (-) 5-6 (4-4 CONF)
PHI (+?) 5-6 (3-6 CONF)
ARI 4.5-6.5
Conference wins at 12-4:DET 10 ATL 9 NYG 8 or 9
Conference wins at 11-5:TB 9 DET 9 ATL 8 or 9 NYG 7 or 8
Conference wins at 10-6:NO 9 TB 8 or 9 GB 8 DET 8 ATL 7 or 8 NYG 6 or 7 MIN 6
Conference wins at 9-7: NO: 8 or 9 TB:7 or 8 GB:7 or 8 DET 7 ATL 6 or 7 NYG 5 or 6 MIN 5
The Giants conf. record only matters in tiebreaks involving ATL (MIN has beat the giants head-to-head). Tiebreaks within the division won't go to conference record. So it doesn't matter much from a tiebreak perspective if PIT is one of their wins or losses.
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Detailed scenarios
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NYG at 13-3:
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NYG get #1 seed if DAL loses to at least 1 team besides NYG. NYG get #5 seed otherwise.
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NYG at 12-4 with win over DAL:
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NYG win division if DAL loses to at least 2 teams besides NYG. NYG get #5 seed otherwise.
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NYG at 12-4 loss to DAL:
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NYG get #5 seed.
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NYG at 11-5
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DAL wins division if they win 1 more game. If this doesn't happen and WAS loses 1 game, NYG wins division.
Assuming DAL wins the division the only threats to the Giants are:
Case 1) WAS winning out
Case 2) ATL/TB 2nd place team going 11-5. This requires a TB win out and ATL going 11-5 or 12-4. If ATL and TB go 11-5 there are some cases for which tiebreaks are TBD.
Both of these cases have to happen for the Giants to be eliminated.
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NYG at 10-6
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DAL wins the division. Assume that GB and NO do not win out (for simplicity).
Then the only threats to NYG are
Case 1) WAS goes 4-1 to get to 10-5-1
Case 2) MIN going 4-0 to get to 10-6 AND DET doing 10-6 or better
Case 3) the 2nd place team from TB/ATL gets to 10-6 or 11-5. If ATL is the 10-6 team there are some tiebreakers that are TBD.
Case 4) PHI wins out to get to 10-6 AND PHI takes a tiebreak from NYG by having the same or better record vs DAL and WAS (PHI 2-2 in this scenario, NYG currently 1-1).
Two of these cases would have to happen for the Giants to be eliminated.
If the Saints win out, that would mean Tampa Bay would get their sixth and seventh loss, Atlanta would get a fifth loss, and Detroit would get a fifth loss. If the Giants and Saints are the only wildcard teams tied at 10-6, the Giants would get in with the head-to-head tiebreaker. The only way the Saints winning out would be bad for the Giants would be if the Saints and Falcons both finish 10-6 with the Falcons' two losses coming against the Saints and Chiefs. In this scenario the Saints would win the NFC South based on the conference record tiebreaker, and the Falcons would beat out the Giants for a wildcard at 10-6 on the conference record tiebreaker.
If the Packers win out, then the Vikings would get their seventh loss, and Detroit would get their fifth loss. If the Giants beat Detroit and handed Detroit their sixth loss, the Giants wouldn't have to worry about a wildcard coming from the NFC North if they won another game to get to 10-6 since Minnesota would have seven losses, Green Bay would win the division at 10-6 because of their head-to-head sweep of Detroit, and the Giants would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Detroit. Therefore, the only way the Packers winning out can hurt the Giants is if the Giants don't beat Detroit.
If the Saints win out, that would mean Tampa Bay would get their sixth and seventh loss, Atlanta would get a fifth loss, and Detroit would get a fifth loss. If the Giants and Saints are the only wildcard teams tied at 10-6, the Giants would get in with the head-to-head tiebreaker. The only way the Saints winning out would be bad for the Giants would be if the Saints and Falcons both finish 10-6 with the Falcons' two losses coming against the Saints and Chiefs. In this scenario the Saints would win the NFC South based on the conference record tiebreaker, and the Falcons would beat out the Giants for a wildcard at 10-6 on the conference record tiebreaker.
If the Packers win out, then the Vikings would get their seventh loss, and Detroit would get their fifth loss. If the Giants beat Detroit and handed Detroit their sixth loss, the Giants wouldn't have to worry about a wildcard coming from the NFC North if they won another game to get to 10-6 since Minnesota would have seven losses, Green Bay would win the division at 10-6 because of their head-to-head sweep of Detroit, and the Giants would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Detroit. Therefore, the only way the Packers winning out can hurt the Giants is if the Giants don't beat Detroit.
I thought a NYG/MIN/NO tiebreak at 10-6 (DET and ATL winning divisions, redskins doing better or worse than 10-6) would be bad for NYG as well - NO on conf record getting the 1st spot, and MIN getting the 2nd spot head-to-head. A NYG/MIN/DET/NO tie at 10-6 would revert to the bad NYG/MIN/NO situation as well.
The Giants need to keep winning - that's what I come away with
Of course, if the Giants lose to Pittsburgh, the whole topic of catching Dallas is probably moot. Huge game Sunday, and they will likely all be huge for at least the next four weeks.
Best case for Giants, aside from winning the division, is to lock up a wild card in Week 16. That would give them the option of sitting/pulling starters in the finale at Washington, when both teams could already own playoff berths and the stakes could just be who goes in as #5 and who makes it as #6.
I think Detroit and philly are the best two chances of winning, followed by dallas and washington.
That's something I should have mentioned.
Quote:
I would add that the Green Bay and New Orleans winning out scenarios aren't that complicated and are actually both pretty beneficial to the Giants.
If the Saints win out, that would mean Tampa Bay would get their sixth and seventh loss, Atlanta would get a fifth loss, and Detroit would get a fifth loss. If the Giants and Saints are the only wildcard teams tied at 10-6, the Giants would get in with the head-to-head tiebreaker. The only way the Saints winning out would be bad for the Giants would be if the Saints and Falcons both finish 10-6 with the Falcons' two losses coming against the Saints and Chiefs. In this scenario the Saints would win the NFC South based on the conference record tiebreaker, and the Falcons would beat out the Giants for a wildcard at 10-6 on the conference record tiebreaker.
If the Packers win out, then the Vikings would get their seventh loss, and Detroit would get their fifth loss. If the Giants beat Detroit and handed Detroit their sixth loss, the Giants wouldn't have to worry about a wildcard coming from the NFC North if they won another game to get to 10-6 since Minnesota would have seven losses, Green Bay would win the division at 10-6 because of their head-to-head sweep of Detroit, and the Giants would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Detroit. Therefore, the only way the Packers winning out can hurt the Giants is if the Giants don't beat Detroit.
I thought a NYG/MIN/NO tiebreak at 10-6 (DET and ATL winning divisions, redskins doing better or worse than 10-6) would be bad for NYG as well - NO on conf record getting the 1st spot, and MIN getting the 2nd spot head-to-head. A NYG/MIN/DET/NO tie at 10-6 would revert to the bad NYG/MIN/NO situation as well.
Yes that's correct that the Giants would lose a three-way tiebreaker with MIN and NO. That's why I mentioned if the Giants and Saints are the only wildcard teams tied at 10-6, that wouldn't hurt the Giants since the Giants would win the head-to-head tiebreaker. The only other way the Saints winning out could hurt the Giants is if the Saints, Vikings, Giants all finish 10-6 AND Detroit finishes 10-6 or better AND Washington finishes worse than 10-5-1. If Washington were to finish 10-5-1 and NYG, MIN, NO finished 10-6, the Skins would get the fifth seed and the Saints would get the 6th seed on conference record, while the Vikings would be the seventh seed and Giants would be the eighth seed. The Saints winning out would be irrelevant in this case since had they not won out in this scenario, Minnesota would get the sixth seed, the Giants would be the seventh seed and still miss the playoffs. But if the Skins do worse than 10-5-1, then the Saints winning out would hurt the Giants since the Saints would win the three-way tiebreaker at 10-6 to take the fifth seed, and the Vikings would win the two-way tiebreaker with the Giants to take the sixth seed, and the Giants would miss the playoffs. Had the Saints not won out in this scenario, the Giants would make the playoffs as the sixth seed. I guess it is a little more complicated than I thought haha. But the Saints winning out helps the Giants more than it hurts them IMO since it takes TB out of the picture, and it also gives DET and ATL another loss.
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In comment 13243982 RutgersGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I would add that the Green Bay and New Orleans winning out scenarios aren't that complicated and are actually both pretty beneficial to the Giants.
If the Saints win out, that would mean Tampa Bay would get their sixth and seventh loss, Atlanta would get a fifth loss, and Detroit would get a fifth loss. If the Giants and Saints are the only wildcard teams tied at 10-6, the Giants would get in with the head-to-head tiebreaker. The only way the Saints winning out would be bad for the Giants would be if the Saints and Falcons both finish 10-6 with the Falcons' two losses coming against the Saints and Chiefs. In this scenario the Saints would win the NFC South based on the conference record tiebreaker, and the Falcons would beat out the Giants for a wildcard at 10-6 on the conference record tiebreaker.
If the Packers win out, then the Vikings would get their seventh loss, and Detroit would get their fifth loss. If the Giants beat Detroit and handed Detroit their sixth loss, the Giants wouldn't have to worry about a wildcard coming from the NFC North if they won another game to get to 10-6 since Minnesota would have seven losses, Green Bay would win the division at 10-6 because of their head-to-head sweep of Detroit, and the Giants would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Detroit. Therefore, the only way the Packers winning out can hurt the Giants is if the Giants don't beat Detroit.
I thought a NYG/MIN/NO tiebreak at 10-6 (DET and ATL winning divisions, redskins doing better or worse than 10-6) would be bad for NYG as well - NO on conf record getting the 1st spot, and MIN getting the 2nd spot head-to-head. A NYG/MIN/DET/NO tie at 10-6 would revert to the bad NYG/MIN/NO situation as well.
Yes that's correct that the Giants would lose a three-way tiebreaker with MIN and NO. That's why I mentioned if the Giants and Saints are the only wildcard teams tied at 10-6, that wouldn't hurt the Giants since the Giants would win the head-to-head tiebreaker. The only other way the Saints winning out could hurt the Giants is if the Saints, Vikings, Giants all finish 10-6 AND Detroit finishes 10-6 or better AND Washington finishes worse than 10-5-1. If Washington were to finish 10-5-1 and NYG, MIN, NO finished 10-6, the Skins would get the fifth seed and the Saints would get the 6th seed on conference record, while the Vikings would be the seventh seed and Giants would be the eighth seed. The Saints winning out would be irrelevant in this case since had they not won out in this scenario, Minnesota would get the sixth seed, the Giants would be the seventh seed and still miss the playoffs. But if the Skins do worse than 10-5-1, then the Saints winning out would hurt the Giants since the Saints would win the three-way tiebreaker at 10-6 to take the fifth seed, and the Vikings would win the two-way tiebreaker with the Giants to take the sixth seed, and the Giants would miss the playoffs. Had the Saints not won out in this scenario, the Giants would make the playoffs as the sixth seed. I guess it is a little more complicated than I thought haha. But the Saints winning out helps the Giants more than it hurts them IMO since it takes TB out of the picture, and it also gives DET and ATL another loss.
Also there could be a NO win out case (I think) where WAS gets 5th spot at 10-5-1. PHI goes 10-6 and gets a tiebreak over NYG. DET and ATL are division winners. So the NO/PHI tiebreak winner gets 6th and the NYG win over NO is negated.
I think a GB win out works as you said.
Anyway it will get easier if the 5-6 teams lose games.