Thanks to FrankNWeezer for pointing out that I had a case of the Giants going 12-4 and losing to DAL, which is now impossible. Also I took a look at the case of GB winning out.
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NY Times simulator (running it 3 times to see simulator variability):
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#1) 3%, 1%, 2%
#2) less than 1%, 1%, 1%
#3) less than 1%, less than 1%, less than 1%
#4) less than 1%, less than 1%, less than 1%
#5) 52%, 53%, 52%
#6) 16%, 20%, 18%
No playoffs: 29%, 25%, 25%
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Quick Summary
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DAL clinches division if they beat NYG OR 2 other teams.
NYG make playoffs if they win 3 of their last 4 games.
At 10-6 significant problem arises if TB and ATL lose 0 or 1 games and WAS wins out. Also MIN or GB could win out and create scenarios that eliminate the Giants.
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Division Standings
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DAL 11-1 NYG 8-4 WAS 6.5-5.5 PHI 5-7
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WILD CARD
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+ = Giants have head-to-head win
? = will play the Giants
- = Giants have head-to-head loss
0 = won't play the Giants
I don't address possibility of NYG tiebreaks with the teams that have played a tie.
DAL (+?) 11-1 (current NFC East leader)
SEA 7.5-3.5 (current NFC West leader)
DET (?) 8-4 (6-2 CONF) (current NFC North leader)
ATL (0) 7-5 (5-3 CONF) (current NFC south leader)
NYG 8-4 (5-3 CONF) (current wild card 1)
TB (0) 7-5 (5-3 CONF) (current wild card 2)
WAS 6.5-5.5
MIN (-) 6-6 (4-6 CONF)
GB (-) 6-6 (4-4 CONF)
ARI 5.5-6.5
NO (+) 5-7 (4-4 CONF)
PHI (+?) 5-7 (3-6 CONF)
Conference wins at 12-4: DET 10 NYG 9
Conference wins at 11-5: TB 9 DET 9 ATL 9 NYG 8
Conference wins at 10-6: TB 8 GB 8 DET 8 ATL 8 NYG 7 MIN 6
Conference wins at 9-7: NO: 8 TB:7 GB: 7 DET 7 ATL 7 NYG 6 PHI 6 MIN 5
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Detailed scenarios
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NYG at 12-4
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NYG win division if DAL loses 2 out of their final 3 games (in addition to loss to NYG). NYG get #5 seed otherwise.
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NYG at 11-5
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If DAL wins 1 more game, DAL wins division. NYG #5 seed.
If DAL loses out, NYG win division.
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NYG at 10-6
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DAL wins the division.
If GB does not win out:
Case 1: WAS wins out
Case 2: MIN wins out AND DET goes 10-6 or better
Case 3: TB AND ATL both lose 0 or 1 games
Giants don't make it if 2 out of 3 of these cases happen
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If GB wins out, there are various scenarios that could eliminate the Giants. The Giants would definitely be out if Cases 1 and 3 above happen. Case 2 could not happen because GB would beat MIN. But there are additional cases where NYG get into 3 way ties at 10-6 with DET and TB, DET and ATL, GB and TB or GB and ATL. The Giants could get eliminated in tiebreaks with DET and TB and DET and ATL even if they beat DET. I haven't found a simple way of writing this up.
MN has a pretty damn easy schedule as well, except for GB. I don't see GB getting past Sea next week, so we would want GB over MN.
Skins have three teams that have gone pass up: Philly, Car, and Chi before Giants in DC.
This is not shaping up well for the Giants.
MN has a pretty damn easy schedule as well, except for GB. I don't see GB getting past Sea next week, so we would want GB over MN.
Skins have three teams that have gone pass up: Philly, Car, and Chi before Giants in DC.
This is not shaping up well for the Giants.
Regardless of schedule you can't pencil anything in for Minnesota. They have been awful since their hot start to the season.
MN has a pretty damn easy schedule as well, except for GB. I don't see GB getting past Sea next week, so we would want GB over MN.
Skins have three teams that have gone pass up: Philly, Car, and Chi before Giants in DC.
This is not shaping up well for the Giants.
Tampa plays saints twice, Dallas and another division game in Carolina. I'd be surprised if they win out. Packers and lions play each other. Falcons should win division. Tampa will lose again. Giants need to beat lions and eagles and they should be fine.
2) Falcons lose two out of @ LA, SF, @ CAR, NO
3) Vikings lose one out of IND, @ JAX, @ GB, CHI
4) Lions lose two out of CHI, @ DAL, GB or Lions lose just GB and GB wins out.*
*: Giants don't have to worry about the Packers winning out in this scenario since if the Packers win out, GB would be 10-6 and DET would be 10-6. GB would win NFC North on head-to-head tiebreaker over DET, and NYG would beat DET on head-to-head tiebreaker for the wildcard.
So if the Giants beat the Lions and Redskins and just one of the four things listed above happens, the Giants are in the playoffs.
Any combo of Giants wins and Redskins losses that total 3 the rest of the way will get it done.
Any combo of Giants wins and Redskins losses that total 3 the rest of the way will get it done.
That is true but there are ways to for the Giants to get in without that combo occurring.
Any combo of Giants wins and Redskins losses that total 3 the rest of the way will get it done.
Actually it is not true. I had no problem putting in cases into the ESPN simulator. where the giants win 2 and the redskins lose 1 and getting the giants out. It would require either a MIN win out or a GB win out however.
I wouldn't put much stock in what comes out of the reporters or newspapers regarding tiebreaking.
To me, that is intuitively more to the point and makes the number a good distance from magical.
Yuk, I'm having a bad day. That 98%-99% probability is based on the Giants getting 2 wins and the skins losing 1 (since I've been focused on the case of the Giants getting to 10-6).
But the Giants and Skins could both lose the next 3 games and that would meet the "magic number" requirement but the Giants could still finish 8-8. So the magic number thing doesn't make sense.
Your first comment about reporters and tiebreakers was perhaps to the point.
Your first comment about reporters and tiebreakers was perhaps to the point.
Already seeing ESPN playoff generator results that I don't agree with. It is that time of year...