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NFT: Yankees Talk: 2017 Expectation series: Aaron Judge

superspynyg : 1/11/2017 10:24 am
I am starting a series of posts between now and the start of ST to talk about me/yours/the fans expectations of certain players. Each post will focus on an individual player and I would like us to keep the post mainly focused on the player listed.

Please feel free to give your honest opinion about what you expect from the player in 2017 and going forward. All are welcome to comment not just Yankee fans. All I ask is that the posts be civil and meant to generate real conversation.


Aaron Judge is expected to be our starting RF. From the small sample size of last season a huge hole was found in his swing which led to a lot of K's I am hoping that he worked his ass off to try and correct his swing as to put the ball in play more and create opportunities. There is no denying his power but unless he can cut his k ratio I fear that he could end up like the Brewers Chris Carter (218 lifetime BA, 150 Hr, low on base %).

Realistically I am hoping that he is able to bat around 270's with 30-40 hrs a year and 100 rbis. Similar to Edwin Encarnation. I do not hold hope of him being a 300 hitter. He is young and with a lot of work could be a real strong player for us for years.

Thoughts??
Sign me up for  
Neckbone1333 : 1/11/2017 10:37 am : link
.265/31/90 right now
I hate to say  
Matt in SGS : 1/11/2017 10:39 am : link
I think Judge is going to struggle, strike out a ton and get sent back to Scranton and work on a few things and will look to come back up later in the Summer to contribute. Just a gut feeling.
Been a big judge fan  
Sgrcts : 1/11/2017 10:39 am : link
For a few years but it's never realistic to project 30-40 HRs.
I thought you said, "realistically".  
TheManUpstairs : 1/11/2017 10:40 am : link
31-40 HRs would be AMAZING.
Okay, you're asking for 2017 expectations...  
Dan in the Springs : 1/11/2017 10:43 am : link
not career expectations, so here we go.

My expectations - low.

.245 BA platooning 12 HR or so, 45-50 RBI in about 240 plate appearances.

Would love to be wrong, but I don't see Girardi giving him many more plate appearances than that right away, and so even though he's got a swing for power, he won't have enough opportunities for 35-40 HR.
RE: I thought you said,  
superspynyg : 1/11/2017 10:44 am : link
In comment 13321200 TheManUpstairs said:
Quote:
31-40 HRs would be AMAZING.


Sorry I wasn't clear...eventually reach those numbers 3-4 years. But for 2017 he will struggle.


my bad.
Yea,  
ManningLobsItBurressAlone : 1/11/2017 10:47 am : link
I agree. He'll be given the chance and I know we all hope he runs with it. But I can see him struggling like he did this year. I can realistically envision something around .235-.240 this year, with some pop. Maybe 10-15 HR's. I do think his struggles will lead to a lot of work for Hicks in RF, barring Gardner staying with the Yanks.
Edwin is a low-K guy...  
Dunedin81 : 1/11/2017 10:49 am : link
topped 100 K just twice in his career. Judge is patient and smart but even if he improves his strike zone coverage he's still likely to be a 140+ K guy.
I fall somewhere in between Matt in SGS and Dan in the Springs -  
Del Shofner : 1/11/2017 10:58 am : link
I think Judge will be good eventually but that 2017 will be a developmental year for him, not a breakthrough year. There will be flashes of being very good, but still too many strikeouts, and spending at least a few more months in AAA is not out of the question.

Hope I'm wrong though ....
not very realistic at this point  
RasputinPrime : 1/11/2017 11:05 am : link
he is a big man with an even bigger hole in his swing and alot of plate to cover.

2017 expectation is .225 8hr and 36 rbi in 180 ab. I think Hicks steps up and eats up alot of the ABs while he seasons with Frazier in AAA for much of the year.
I agree with your assesment.  
Giant John : 1/11/2017 11:18 am : link
he needs to work on pitch selection and making contact. No question about power but what good is that without getting the bat on the ball? I too hope he is working hard to improve.
The issue with Judge is purely size...  
Dunedin81 : 1/11/2017 11:20 am : link
he is patient, his strike zone discipline is good, his swing is surprisingly short for such a powerful guy, he is an intelligent kid who really does want to learn, the problem is just that he has to cover that much of a strike zone. His pitch recognition will improve with time and that'll help, but K's will always be a factor with him.
Judge Did Not Look Good Last Year...  
Jim in Tampa : 1/11/2017 11:24 am : link
At least at the major league level. But he does have a history of looking bad when he gets to a new level, before eventually figuring things out. So I'm hoping that he makes some adjustments and before the end of the year he starts playing up to his potential.

His career ceiling would seem to be .250/25/75.
of the group of top tier prospects, I think Judge will have the  
Victor in CT : 1/11/2017 11:28 am : link
toughest time. That long swing and huge strike zone that comes from being 6' 7" is going to be difficult to overcome. I think .250-.265 area, 25-30 HRs and a lot of Ks is his ceiling
My Expectations for Aaron Judge for 2017  
PaulN : 1/11/2017 11:49 am : link
BA - .235
HR - 24
RBI - 61
OBP - .320
OPS - 735

In my opinion this would be good progress for judge, if he had this type season I would be thrilled. I would be progress and would give me hope, I am not going to put out dumb expectations that he will never live up to. I can't imagine what some of you think Sanchez will do this season, and I am afraid to even ask, so I'll let you.
That assumes  
PaulN : 1/11/2017 11:53 am : link
He plays most times, as one person said, he expects Hicks to eat up a lot of at bats, I am going to believe that he will win the position and play most days, I am going to also assume Hicks will get plenty of at bats playing when Ellsbury and Gardner are hurt and will also assume he subs for all three positions and gets plenty of at bats anyway. I think Hicks has a chance to be a pretty good player.
Based on a very small sample size  
averagejoe : 1/11/2017 12:00 pm : link
I don't think Judge is ready yet. He takes too many strikes and swings at too many balls. Not sure how long Yanks will stick with him while he is learning to work the count. Hope he hits enough early to play regularly.
I can see Matt's scenario coming true  
Greg from LI : 1/11/2017 12:33 pm : link
.
What is the big hole in his swing, that the OP is referring too?  
Dave in Buffalo : 1/11/2017 1:21 pm : link
?
Last year in a small sample Judge  
blue2 : 1/11/2017 1:32 pm : link
had the highest exit velocity off the bat according to Statcast. Also if you watched Judge last year it was noticeable that he had to defend outside the zone on away pitches that were clearly off the plate that took AB's away from him. With all the new info that will be coming out via Statcast that isn't available as of now, it'll be interesting to see where Judge is and will be going forward with respect to Barrelling and Launch angle. Umpiring with regard to calling the correct strike zone will also improve as umpires become used to his size. It is possible for Judge in short order to become a Trumbo like player with upside if he can make ongoing adjustments. Having a 30 plus homerun power bat hitting 6th or 7th in the lineup even with a high K rate is still quite valuable.
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/11/2017 1:40 pm : link
think Judge has Richie Sexson (with HR #'s dialed back a bit thanks to era) type of upside. I really like his swing, he moves very well for his size. Mark Trumbo maybe a better comp upside wise but more defensive value
RE: Last year in a small sample Judge  
LS : 1/11/2017 1:47 pm : link
In comment 13321550 blue2 said:
Quote:
had the highest exit velocity off the bat according to Statcast. Also if you watched Judge last year it was noticeable that he had to defend outside the zone on away pitches that were clearly off the plate that took AB's away from him. With all the new info that will be coming out via Statcast that isn't available as of now, it'll be interesting to see where Judge is and will be going forward with respect to Barrelling and Launch angle. Umpiring with regard to calling the correct strike zone will also improve as umpires become used to his size. It is possible for Judge in short order to become a Trumbo like player with upside if he can make ongoing adjustments. Having a 30 plus homerun power bat hitting 6th or 7th in the lineup even with a high K rate is still quite valuable.
I am not seeing this anywhere. Average velocity?
RE: RE: Last year in a small sample Judge  
DanMetroMan : 1/11/2017 1:52 pm : link
In comment 13321583 LS said:
Quote:
In comment 13321550 blue2 said:


Quote:


had the highest exit velocity off the bat according to Statcast. Also if you watched Judge last year it was noticeable that he had to defend outside the zone on away pitches that were clearly off the plate that took AB's away from him. With all the new info that will be coming out via Statcast that isn't available as of now, it'll be interesting to see where Judge is and will be going forward with respect to Barrelling and Launch angle. Umpiring with regard to calling the correct strike zone will also improve as umpires become used to his size. It is possible for Judge in short order to become a Trumbo like player with upside if he can make ongoing adjustments. Having a 30 plus homerun power bat hitting 6th or 7th in the lineup even with a high K rate is still quite valuable.

I am not seeing this anywhere. Average velocity?


here
Link - ( New Window )
Thanks  
LS : 1/11/2017 1:53 pm : link
.
I've read a ton of articles  
mavric : 1/11/2017 2:04 pm : link
on our baby bombers including Judge.

The general consensus of pro scouts and coaches is that each time he has moved up, it's taken him time to adjust to better pitching. And each time, he starts to hit much better after a cold start.

Some of them have mentioned that he isn't picking up the spin on a ball in the majors. Others have said that opposing teams have studied him inside and out with computerized data and only throw pitches that he has traditionally struggled with. Either way, he's working day and night to get up to speed with major league pitching.

I think once he gets comfortable, he'll be a .265 hitter (+/- 5) and a 30+ HR hitter.

Don't worry, he'll come around. He has all year with professional coaching to work on his swing. He will become more patient and learn to hit mistakes with a vengeance.
We're gonna  
Phil in LA : 1/11/2017 2:29 pm : link
Hit a lot more home runs this year.
After we got past his outstanding first week  
Matt M. : 1/11/2017 2:33 pm : link
We saw a player who really struggled. I didn't see enough of him in the minors outside of some highlights. So, most of my opinion is from weighing the write-ups about his ceiling and potential (i.e. scouting reports, articles, posts here, etc.) vs. what he did on the field.

I would love to say he will hit north of .275 and hit 25-30 HRs. What I think will happen is he will still struggle and hit in the .250-.260 range with some pop and a lot of Ks. I hope I am underestimating him though.
I think that it's just as likely that he becomes a .230 hitter  
yatqb : 1/11/2017 3:01 pm : link
with tons of strikeouts (a Dave Kingman-lite) who may or may not get the ABs to reach 20 or more HRs in a season, as it is to imagine him as a .275 hitter with 30 or more HRs. There is a strong possibility that he fails in MLB.
since we're talking Dave Kingman -  
Del Shofner : 1/11/2017 4:23 pm : link
as you know, no fair ball was ever hit out of the old Stadium (although Mickey came close). But I was at a game when Kingman was on the Yanks, and he hit a foul ball out of the Stadium about 2/3 of the way down the left field line. It was a real moon shot!
RE: I think that it's just as likely that he becomes a .230 hitter  
Matt M. : 1/11/2017 4:24 pm : link
In comment 13321705 yatqb said:
Quote:
with tons of strikeouts (a Dave Kingman-lite) who may or may not get the ABs to reach 20 or more HRs in a season, as it is to imagine him as a .275 hitter with 30 or more HRs. There is a strong possibility that he fails in MLB.
I agree. That's why I was splitting the difference and hope at least that is right. I'm concerned about a few of the youngsters. Judge and Austin started off hot and then dropped off terribly. But, it was their first crack at the Show, so who knows what to expect next year. Bird is an interesting case. He also started off hot and tapered off to what would translate to an OK player, but not special. Then in the Arizona Fall League he had a hot start with some pop. This was initially promising, at least leading us to believe the shoulder is sound. But, he finished with dismal numbers there. So, who knows?

Sanchez is the only Baby Bomber I truly expect to shine next year.
RE: since we're talking Dave Kingman -  
yatqb : 1/11/2017 5:21 pm : link
In comment 13321825 Del Shofner said:
Quote:
as you know, no fair ball was ever hit out of the old Stadium (although Mickey came close). But I was at a game when Kingman was on the Yanks, and he hit a foul ball out of the Stadium about 2/3 of the way down the left field line. It was a real moon shot!


Del, I remember watching that game...it was quite a shot. He, Frank Howard and Richie Allen were the players who imo had "Mantle power". Judge may too; the issue is how often he connects.
I worry  
mavric : 1/11/2017 5:23 pm : link
a little out of Sanchez in his second year. Teams have an incredible amount of computerized data to figure the best way to pitch him...not to mention, an incredible amount of pressure to repeat his hitting in his upcoming sophomore stint. He'll probably be good to excellent, but I would be surprised if he kept up the torrid pace of HR's that he had last year in such a short amount of time. That's a lot of pressure and he will surprise no team that he faces this year.

Bird with his left handed loft-type swing should do well at the stadium with the short porch - that is, if he's back to full health which I think he will be.

Judge will be better than his fade out last year, but probably won't bat for average until he settles in. Time will tell. He'll probably go back down to Scranton if he starts out struggling badly for more than a few weeks and we might see Frazier replace him. I'm rooting big time for Judge to break out. Each time he was moved up, he struggled at first. His BA in single A to double A was: .308, .333, .283, .278 (over BA for those was .301)...and if you look at the averages spread over time, he always started slow and then came on strong...and then they'd move him up to the next level where he would do that all over again.

When they moved him up to AAA in 2015, his batting avg went from .284 in Trenton with 12 HRs in a half season to .224 in Scranton with 8 HRs. However, the next Spring in Scranton, he hit .270 with 19 HRs in 2/3's of a season before coming up to the big club. He'll come around.
Judge has his work cut out for him  
Dave in PA : 1/11/2017 9:43 pm : link
2018 is probably when he really starts contributing in the bigs. His swing is a mess right now, but that's not to say he can't fix it
He's been working with the coaches  
Phil in LA : 1/11/2017 11:55 pm : link
In the cages all off-season.
250-255  
shelovesnycsports : 1/12/2017 12:27 am : link
With 20-25 HRs should be fine for this year.
I admit to only seeing him last  
section125 : 1/12/2017 7:23 am : link
year. He took too many strikes and swung at way too many balls. I know his MO has been to start cold at each level and then turn it around as he acclimated to pitching and strike zone.

I will not expect much from him this year, but I look forward to seeing him play. He seems to be a better OF than you would expect in such a large person. He seems to stay calm and not take "failures" hard at the plate.

.240/18-20 hrs/55-65 rbis (bottom of order chances) would be an excellent season in my view. Not sure how much Joe will be willing to play him if he starts slow. Aaron Hicks was seemingly starting to hit toward the end of last year so may eat up some of Judge's games if he continues to improve. (Yanks "need" to attempt to make the playoffs)

Part of Judge's problem will be playing time unless one of Gardner or Ellsbury is traded.
Realistic expectations are  
JerryNYG : 1/12/2017 7:24 am : link
BA - .225
HR - 20
RBI - 65
OBP - .305
OPS - 715

I think he spends some time in the minors this year. I do not day that to denigrate him or cast doubt on his future potential, but a guy that size with the hole in his swing is going to struggle adjusting to MLB pitching.

I think going forward in the years to come he can raise the AVG and OBP a few notches as he adjusts to the pitching. This will naturally lead to more postive outcomes in the form or extra base hits, including HRs.
As a hitter, I think we'll be lucky/happy if he turns into Jay Buhner  
Heisenberg : 1/12/2017 8:41 am : link
.
Watching Judge...  
Racer : 1/12/2017 8:43 am : link
...it makes me think how amazing it was that Dave Winfield produced the BA numbers he did with a similar amount of plate to cover.
Frazier will be hot on his tail  
mavric : 1/12/2017 8:58 am : link
and wants a call up. Unless we trade Gardner, Judge would most likely be at risk of a hot hitting redhead waiting his turn.

Great article in the Post this morning on Frazier.
Super Prospect Clint Frazier - ( New Window )
RE: Sign me up for  
djm : 1/12/2017 10:42 am : link
In comment 13321188 Neckbone1333 said:
Quote:
.265/31/90 right now


You think? We'd all kill for that. I'm not optimistic. Judge's swing seems to boom or bust but hopefully they worked on things this off-season.
RE: Frazier will be hot on his tail  
Del Shofner : 1/12/2017 12:25 pm : link
In comment 13322383 mavric said:
Quote:
and wants a call up. Unless we trade Gardner, Judge would most likely be at risk of a hot hitting redhead waiting his turn.

Great article in the Post this morning on Frazier. Super Prospect Clint Frazier - ( New Window )


Read that this morning - gets you pumped up to see Frazier on the big team sooner than later.
RE: RE: Frazier will be hot on his tail  
mavric : 1/12/2017 12:58 pm : link
In comment 13322721 Del Shofner said:
Quote:
In comment 13322383 mavric said:


Quote:


and wants a call up. Unless we trade Gardner, Judge would most likely be at risk of a hot hitting redhead waiting his turn.

Great article in the Post this morning on Frazier. Super Prospect Clint Frazier - ( New Window )



Read that this morning - gets you pumped up to see Frazier on the big team sooner than later.


I love the guy's attitude and his love and respect for the Yankee organization. I hated to lose Miller to get him, but I think over time, I will love the trade
Mickey Mantle  
jacob12 : 1/12/2017 5:34 pm : link
Mantles longest home run was 463 feet.The other measurements are apocryphal.Many players have hit much longer home runs than Mickey.

I read a list of the longest verified homers in baseball history.G Hill, 501 ft,Mo Vaughn,505 ft,Jim Thome, 511 ft,Andres Galarraga,525 ft,Reggie Jackson,532 ft and Adam Dunn 535 ft.I did not include every player listed,but many have hit home runs much farther than Mantle.

Last year more than 2 dozen players hit home runs longer than Mantle did in his career.Mickey had great power for his era.Athletes get bigger, stronger, and faster.There are many baseball players who have far more power than Mantle,and can hit the ball a much longer distance.
You  
mitch300 : 1/12/2017 5:48 pm : link
mentioned players that were in a different era than Mantle. During Mantle's era he hit further then them all, or most.
RE: Mickey Mantle  
section125 : 1/12/2017 5:57 pm : link
In comment 13323167 jacob12 said:
Quote:
Mantles longest home run was 463 feet.The other measurements are apocryphal.Many players have hit much longer home runs than Mickey.

I read a list of the longest verified homers in baseball history.G Hill, 501 ft,Mo Vaughn,505 ft,Jim Thome, 511 ft,Andres Galarraga,525 ft,Reggie Jackson,532 ft and Adam Dunn 535 ft.I did not include every player listed,but many have hit home runs much farther than Mantle.

Last year more than 2 dozen players hit home runs longer than Mantle did in his career.Mickey had great power for his era.Athletes get bigger, stronger, and faster.There are many baseball players who have far more power than Mantle,and can hit the ball a much longer distance.


Mantle hit the longest home runs. See the attached.
Mickey Mantle HRs - ( New Window )
Meh.  
adamg : 1/12/2017 6:07 pm : link
.218/.318/.425

18 HR 50 RBI 100 K
RE: RE: Mickey Mantle  
Dan in the Springs : 1/12/2017 6:15 pm : link
In comment 13323183 section125 said:
Quote:

Mantle hit the longest home runs. See the attached.


Any claim that shows a baseball was hit over 730 ft is dubious. What was said is that those measurements are apocryphal, not verified.
The one that Mantle hit off the facade  
Phil in LA : 1/12/2017 6:21 pm : link
At the stadium would have kept going. The one he hit out of Griffith Park went 565.
RE: The one that Mantle hit off the facade  
Dan in the Springs : 1/12/2017 6:24 pm : link
In comment 13323197 Phil in LA said:
Quote:
At the stadium would have kept going. The one he hit out of Griffith Park went 565.


Yeah, I've read that explanation, and how far is anyone's guess.

But it's still just a guess.

No question it was an amazing shot.
RE: Mickey Mantle  
shelovesnycsports : 1/12/2017 6:49 pm : link
In comment 13323167 jacob12 said:
Quote:
Mantles longest home run was 463 feet.The other measurements are apocryphal.Many players have hit much longer home runs than Mickey.

I read a list of the longest verified homers in baseball history.G Hill, 501 ft,Mo Vaughn,505 ft,Jim Thome, 511 ft,Andres Galarraga,525 ft,Reggie Jackson,532 ft and Adam Dunn 535 ft.I did not include every player listed,but many have hit home runs much farther than Mantle.

Last year more than 2 dozen players hit home runs longer than Mantle did in his career.Mickey had great power for his era.Athletes get bigger, stronger, and faster.There are many baseball players who have far more power than Mantle,and can hit the ball a much longer distance.


12 must be the age.
RE: RE: RE: Mickey Mantle  
section125 : 1/12/2017 7:35 pm : link
In comment 13323194 Dan in the Springs said:
Quote:
In comment 13323183 section125 said:


Quote:



Mantle hit the longest home runs. See the attached.



Any claim that shows a baseball was hit over 730 ft is dubious. What was said is that those measurements are apocryphal, not verified.


Yeah that 734 fter is wrong and few others are dubious, but there were a few that were actually measured or measurable. It is a well known fact that Mantle hit some 500+ft homers. I think, IIRC, Sportswriters said Babe, Mickey and Reggie were regarded as the longest of the long ball hitters. The 565 fter I believe is regarded as the longest HR of all time.
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