I am starting a series of posts between now and the start of ST to talk about me/yours/the fans expectations of certain players. Each post will focus on an individual player and I would like us to keep the post mainly focused on the player listed.
Please feel free to give your honest opinion about what you expect from the player in 2017 and going forward. All are welcome to comment not just Yankee fans. All I ask is that the posts be civil and meant to generate real conversation.
Aaron Judge is expected to be our starting RF. From the small sample size of last season a huge hole was found in his swing which led to a lot of K's I am hoping that he worked his ass off to try and correct his swing as to put the ball in play more and create opportunities. There is no denying his power but unless he can cut his k ratio I fear that he could end up like the Brewers Chris Carter (218 lifetime BA, 150 Hr, low on base %).
Realistically I am hoping that he is able to bat around 270's with 30-40 hrs a year and 100 rbis. Similar to Edwin Encarnation. I do not hold hope of him being a 300 hitter. He is young and with a lot of work could be a real strong player for us for years.
Thoughts??
My expectations - low.
.245 BA platooning 12 HR or so, 45-50 RBI in about 240 plate appearances.
Would love to be wrong, but I don't see Girardi giving him many more plate appearances than that right away, and so even though he's got a swing for power, he won't have enough opportunities for 35-40 HR.
Sorry I wasn't clear...eventually reach those numbers 3-4 years. But for 2017 he will struggle.
my bad.
Hope I'm wrong though ....
2017 expectation is .225 8hr and 36 rbi in 180 ab. I think Hicks steps up and eats up alot of the ABs while he seasons with Frazier in AAA for much of the year.
His career ceiling would seem to be .250/25/75.
HR - 24
RBI - 61
OBP - .320
OPS - 735
In my opinion this would be good progress for judge, if he had this type season I would be thrilled. I would be progress and would give me hope, I am not going to put out dumb expectations that he will never live up to. I can't imagine what some of you think Sanchez will do this season, and I am afraid to even ask, so I'll let you.
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had the highest exit velocity off the bat according to Statcast. Also if you watched Judge last year it was noticeable that he had to defend outside the zone on away pitches that were clearly off the plate that took AB's away from him. With all the new info that will be coming out via Statcast that isn't available as of now, it'll be interesting to see where Judge is and will be going forward with respect to Barrelling and Launch angle. Umpiring with regard to calling the correct strike zone will also improve as umpires become used to his size. It is possible for Judge in short order to become a Trumbo like player with upside if he can make ongoing adjustments. Having a 30 plus homerun power bat hitting 6th or 7th in the lineup even with a high K rate is still quite valuable.
I am not seeing this anywhere. Average velocity?
here
Link - ( New Window )
The general consensus of pro scouts and coaches is that each time he has moved up, it's taken him time to adjust to better pitching. And each time, he starts to hit much better after a cold start.
Some of them have mentioned that he isn't picking up the spin on a ball in the majors. Others have said that opposing teams have studied him inside and out with computerized data and only throw pitches that he has traditionally struggled with. Either way, he's working day and night to get up to speed with major league pitching.
I think once he gets comfortable, he'll be a .265 hitter (+/- 5) and a 30+ HR hitter.
Don't worry, he'll come around. He has all year with professional coaching to work on his swing. He will become more patient and learn to hit mistakes with a vengeance.
I would love to say he will hit north of .275 and hit 25-30 HRs. What I think will happen is he will still struggle and hit in the .250-.260 range with some pop and a lot of Ks. I hope I am underestimating him though.
Sanchez is the only Baby Bomber I truly expect to shine next year.
Del, I remember watching that game...it was quite a shot. He, Frank Howard and Richie Allen were the players who imo had "Mantle power". Judge may too; the issue is how often he connects.
Bird with his left handed loft-type swing should do well at the stadium with the short porch - that is, if he's back to full health which I think he will be.
Judge will be better than his fade out last year, but probably won't bat for average until he settles in. Time will tell. He'll probably go back down to Scranton if he starts out struggling badly for more than a few weeks and we might see Frazier replace him. I'm rooting big time for Judge to break out. Each time he was moved up, he struggled at first. His BA in single A to double A was: .308, .333, .283, .278 (over BA for those was .301)...and if you look at the averages spread over time, he always started slow and then came on strong...and then they'd move him up to the next level where he would do that all over again.
When they moved him up to AAA in 2015, his batting avg went from .284 in Trenton with 12 HRs in a half season to .224 in Scranton with 8 HRs. However, the next Spring in Scranton, he hit .270 with 19 HRs in 2/3's of a season before coming up to the big club. He'll come around.
I will not expect much from him this year, but I look forward to seeing him play. He seems to be a better OF than you would expect in such a large person. He seems to stay calm and not take "failures" hard at the plate.
.240/18-20 hrs/55-65 rbis (bottom of order chances) would be an excellent season in my view. Not sure how much Joe will be willing to play him if he starts slow. Aaron Hicks was seemingly starting to hit toward the end of last year so may eat up some of Judge's games if he continues to improve. (Yanks "need" to attempt to make the playoffs)
Part of Judge's problem will be playing time unless one of Gardner or Ellsbury is traded.
HR - 20
RBI - 65
OBP - .305
OPS - 715
I think he spends some time in the minors this year. I do not day that to denigrate him or cast doubt on his future potential, but a guy that size with the hole in his swing is going to struggle adjusting to MLB pitching.
I think going forward in the years to come he can raise the AVG and OBP a few notches as he adjusts to the pitching. This will naturally lead to more postive outcomes in the form or extra base hits, including HRs.
Great article in the Post this morning on Frazier.
Super Prospect Clint Frazier - ( New Window )
You think? We'd all kill for that. I'm not optimistic. Judge's swing seems to boom or bust but hopefully they worked on things this off-season.
Great article in the Post this morning on Frazier. Super Prospect Clint Frazier - ( New Window )
Read that this morning - gets you pumped up to see Frazier on the big team sooner than later.
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and wants a call up. Unless we trade Gardner, Judge would most likely be at risk of a hot hitting redhead waiting his turn.
Great article in the Post this morning on Frazier. Super Prospect Clint Frazier - ( New Window )
Read that this morning - gets you pumped up to see Frazier on the big team sooner than later.
I love the guy's attitude and his love and respect for the Yankee organization. I hated to lose Miller to get him, but I think over time, I will love the trade
I read a list of the longest verified homers in baseball history.G Hill, 501 ft,Mo Vaughn,505 ft,Jim Thome, 511 ft,Andres Galarraga,525 ft,Reggie Jackson,532 ft and Adam Dunn 535 ft.I did not include every player listed,but many have hit home runs much farther than Mantle.
Last year more than 2 dozen players hit home runs longer than Mantle did in his career.Mickey had great power for his era.Athletes get bigger, stronger, and faster.There are many baseball players who have far more power than Mantle,and can hit the ball a much longer distance.
I read a list of the longest verified homers in baseball history.G Hill, 501 ft,Mo Vaughn,505 ft,Jim Thome, 511 ft,Andres Galarraga,525 ft,Reggie Jackson,532 ft and Adam Dunn 535 ft.I did not include every player listed,but many have hit home runs much farther than Mantle.
Last year more than 2 dozen players hit home runs longer than Mantle did in his career.Mickey had great power for his era.Athletes get bigger, stronger, and faster.There are many baseball players who have far more power than Mantle,and can hit the ball a much longer distance.
Mantle hit the longest home runs. See the attached.
Mickey Mantle HRs - ( New Window )
18 HR 50 RBI 100 K
Mantle hit the longest home runs. See the attached.
Any claim that shows a baseball was hit over 730 ft is dubious. What was said is that those measurements are apocryphal, not verified.
Yeah, I've read that explanation, and how far is anyone's guess.
But it's still just a guess.
No question it was an amazing shot.
I read a list of the longest verified homers in baseball history.G Hill, 501 ft,Mo Vaughn,505 ft,Jim Thome, 511 ft,Andres Galarraga,525 ft,Reggie Jackson,532 ft and Adam Dunn 535 ft.I did not include every player listed,but many have hit home runs much farther than Mantle.
Last year more than 2 dozen players hit home runs longer than Mantle did in his career.Mickey had great power for his era.Athletes get bigger, stronger, and faster.There are many baseball players who have far more power than Mantle,and can hit the ball a much longer distance.
12 must be the age.
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Mantle hit the longest home runs. See the attached.
Any claim that shows a baseball was hit over 730 ft is dubious. What was said is that those measurements are apocryphal, not verified.
Yeah that 734 fter is wrong and few others are dubious, but there were a few that were actually measured or measurable. It is a well known fact that Mantle hit some 500+ft homers. I think, IIRC, Sportswriters said Babe, Mickey and Reggie were regarded as the longest of the long ball hitters. The 565 fter I believe is regarded as the longest HR of all time.