NFT: Yanks talk 1-17 Expectation series: Greg Bird

His walk rate is usually higher than you have here, so that OBP may be low if he hit's 260. The counting stats are probably good tho.

and hopefully get >450 AB this year. That would be a great start.

After that - would agree with the .260 BA and hopefully a .340 or so OBP. With that many AB and manning a corner IF position he should put up 15-20 HR and around 80 RBI.

It'll be nice adding Holiday and bird to the team we had last year.

Steamer Projections at Fangraphs give him a slash of

.264/.344/489 for a wRC+ of 123.

96 games, 19 HR, 50 R, 56 RBI, 2 SB


Depth Charts projection have same rate stats but 83 games played so fewer counting stats. Depth Charts combines ZiPS and Steamer with playing time allocated by Fangraphs' staff.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14131&position=1B - ( New Window )

I expect him to put up close to the stats that have been mentioned here. Including time needing to shake off the rust. Something like .260, .330-.340, 20 HRs, 70 RBIs. That's assuming he gets the bulk of the reps at 1B through the year.

it usually takes a while to regain the stroke. So he may have a very slow start while he continues to regain his form.

kind of reminds me of a John Olerud type. Not the top end of Olerud, like in 1993 when he hit .363, but closer to his general career norm, hitting around .275, an OPB hovering in the upper .300s and will hit 15-20 HRs. That's what I could see from him in 2017 if he stays healthy.

In comment 13329278 Beer Man said:

Quote:

it usually takes a while to regain the stroke. So he may have a very slow start while he continues to regain his form.

Didn't he have the torn labrum? I've had a few of those surgeries and it shouldn't effect his baseball swing much at all. It definitely effects your throwing, but not the swing. Sometimes a long time off can help a hitter, not sure he's going to be rusty.

and that's a big if, the power is a real wildcard. He has huge power, but he's also very controlled with his swing so anywhere from 15-30 would be realistic. He's also extremely patient. The BA could be .240 (mostly on account of his having lead feet) or it could be .280. My guess would be somewhere around .255/.350/.440.

Just a guess on my part, but I think that an optimistic but still reasonable expectation for his prime would be around .280/.350/.475 with 25 homers.

to help this team with his bat. He will get hot and cold like most big league bats but he has good gap power and hopefully will not get pull crazy. My bigger concern is his defense. If he is above average defensively, that will be a plus. We have become spoiled with Teix at first base.

Mattingly type stroke. I believe he will be a consistent 28-35 home run type guy. People forget this guy was hitting a homer every 14 at-bats when he came up. I do not believe he will maintain that pace but 1 every 20 is fair. his stroke is perfect for Yankee Stadium. I really believe by next year the baby bombers will be alive and well.

with Bird becoming a stellar player, but than again, people who know me and hate the Yankees call me a "homer" for thinking the Yankees are the class of baseball and think their players are great. So I guess you have to take that into consideration. Regardless, Bird has a sweet swing and a good glove and he's only going to get better in the next couple of years....as long as he stays healthy.

You want to hear the excuse my best friend (a die hard Mets and National League fan) has for hating the Yanks with such a deep seated passion? It's because the Yankees don't put the player's name on the back of their uniforms. He says the Yankees are so damn arrogant that they think everyone knows who the players are so putting a name on their jersey is unnecessary. I think the real reason he hates the Yankees so much is that his team sucks and he doesn't think the DH rule is (in his words) "real baseball"...lol