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What do you think the max JPP could fetch in FA?

adamg : 1/20/2017 12:15 am
17 mill per? More?
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RE: RE: RE: RE: I  
giants#1 : 1/20/2017 12:56 pm : link
In comment 13334082 Pete in MD said:
Quote:

Speaking of penetrating DTs, what kind of money does Nick Fairly get? He's had an up and down career with three different teams but he is coming off a season with 6.5 sacks (tied for 5th among DTs) and 22 QB pressures. The same sack total as Fletcher Cox. He's coming off of consecutive one year deals in the $3-4M range but should command more this off-season. 28 years old.


Can't see anyone giving him crazy money due to all the work effort questions that have dogged him everywhere. A 3-4 year deal worth $20-25M is possible though ($6-7M AAV). I'd keep the guarantees low though.
Contracts inflate every year  
Patrick77 : 1/20/2017 12:57 pm : link
JPP arguably outplayed Vernon this year.
The Giants set the market last year with vernon's deal.

This is pretty simple stuff and it's unfortunate but true. JPP is going to make what Vernon made if not more. Calais Campbell's made 14 million+ last year and 15 million+ this year, he is 2 or 3 years older than JPP. His worth is set by previous contracts, age, production, and the money chasing him (huge money out there, very few good FAs). JPP will average somewhere between 14 and 18 a year is my guess.

Hankins I may have overestimated his worth a few times on here but again it's likely at least what Joseph currently gets and at most somewhere below Suh or Cox. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hankins make 10-11 a year on average.
Stats....  
Doomster : 1/20/2017 1:33 pm : link
everyone brings up stats, when discussing a player....

But some of the stats, should have more meaning.....

Like "pressures"....there are pressures and there are pressures....so what if a guy gets a pressure, but the QB still gets pos yards from a run or completion....if a defensive lineman pressures a qb into an incomplete pass, that is totally different......but the stat does not differentiate that.....

Same with run defense......how do you stat that? For a DE, you count the number of running plays that go between him and the DT, or around his end....and then you separate those into pos and neg yard plays.....

All the Talk about JPP having pressures and being stout against the run, mean nothing without stats to back it up, and unfortunately, there are no such stats.....so, basically it is what the eye sees....

I have seen JPP disappear against good teams....I have seen him blocked one on one by TE's.....he does not have a variety of pass rush moves.....have seen too many qb's run around his side....yes he is a good DE.....but I don't think we can afford him.....this could be his last big contract, and he is not going to give a hometown discount......there will be some GM out there that may think he is the missing piece and will pay him....but we won't be able to match it....our top 5 players command almost 50% of the cap.....JPP? Hankins? Robinson? FA OLmen? FA WR? Depth? We can't afford it.....
RE: RE: RE: I  
UConn4523 : 1/20/2017 1:42 pm : link
In comment 13334056 giants#1 said:
Quote:
In comment 13333872 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


In comment 13333856 AcidTest said:


Quote:


wouldn't hate paying JPP $17M, but I wouldn't do it. 28. Back injuries. Missing most of his right hand. But I think it's moot, because somebody is going to make an incredible offer that is far beyond what even his most die hard supporters agree he should be paid. Same for Hankins. I have a feeling we lose both in FA.



I think Hankins will come at a reasonable contract. He doesn't rush the passer, there's only so much others will be willing to pay. At $9 million you are expecting a top shelf DT, unfortunately he isn't. He's very good, and works really well in this defense, I just don't think most other teams will be willing to throw big cash at a guy who' can't get to the passer on his own. He's also not as good as Snacks who was purely a run stuffer with the Jets (with us too but he's definitely better than he was there).



The DT market is weird. There are basically 3 tiers: the elite penetrating DTs (Suh, Atkins, Cox, M Jackson etc) who set the franchise tag level and can earn $14M+ per year, the elite run stuffers like Snacks around the $9-10M per year range, and then everyone else (IIRC, there's a big drop down to AAV of $6M here).

I can't see Hankins making $9M. If someone offers him that, then I wish him the best.


Completely agree. I think he's in that $6.5/$7 million per year range and I'll gladly have him back at that price.
RE: Stats....  
UConn4523 : 1/20/2017 1:44 pm : link
In comment 13334132 Doomster said:
Quote:
everyone brings up stats, when discussing a player....

But some of the stats, should have more meaning.....

Like "pressures"....there are pressures and there are pressures....so what if a guy gets a pressure, but the QB still gets pos yards from a run or completion....if a defensive lineman pressures a qb into an incomplete pass, that is totally different......but the stat does not differentiate that.....

Same with run defense......how do you stat that? For a DE, you count the number of running plays that go between him and the DT, or around his end....and then you separate those into pos and neg yard plays.....

All the Talk about JPP having pressures and being stout against the run, mean nothing without stats to back it up, and unfortunately, there are no such stats.....so, basically it is what the eye sees....

I have seen JPP disappear against good teams....I have seen him blocked one on one by TE's.....he does not have a variety of pass rush moves.....have seen too many qb's run around his side....yes he is a good DE.....but I don't think we can afford him.....this could be his last big contract, and he is not going to give a hometown discount......there will be some GM out there that may think he is the missing piece and will pay him....but we won't be able to match it....our top 5 players command almost 50% of the cap.....JPP? Hankins? Robinson? FA OLmen? FA WR? Depth? We can't afford it.....


you really don't have any idea what he will be offered from us/the market, and what his feeling on staying in NY are. Just be honest, you don't, and neither do I.

Sure, someone can offer him a massive deal but it isn't some given. Most other teams will have the same health reservations, its not like no one else has intel. And despite what he says publicly, he may very well want to stay right here, how could any of us know?
JJ Watt disappears against good teams too  
UConn4523 : 1/20/2017 1:58 pm : link
I've seen it with my own two eyes. There was also a year where Watt racked up double digit sacks against awful competition, no one cared. Its such a flawed way of looking at this.
Njm by the time  
area junc : 1/20/2017 2:17 pm : link
he gets to the 4th year you can cut him if hes not living up to the deal.
RE: RE: RE: RE: I  
giants#1 : 1/20/2017 2:20 pm : link
In comment 13334151 UConn4523 said:
Quote:


Completely agree. I think he's in that $6.5/$7 million per year range and I'll gladly have him back at that price.


If I had to guess, I'd say he ends up closer to $7.5-8M per year. His production is arguably as good, if not better, than Linval's was when he hit FA and Linval got (IIRC) 5 yrs/$30M. So you've gotta figure a decent amount of inflation since then, especially after the Snacks deal.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I  
UConn4523 : 1/20/2017 2:43 pm : link
In comment 13334192 giants#1 said:
Quote:
In comment 13334151 UConn4523 said:


Quote:




Completely agree. I think he's in that $6.5/$7 million per year range and I'll gladly have him back at that price.



If I had to guess, I'd say he ends up closer to $7.5-8M per year. His production is arguably as good, if not better, than Linval's was when he hit FA and Linval got (IIRC) 5 yrs/$30M. So you've gotta figure a decent amount of inflation since then, especially after the Snacks deal.


My only issue is that Linval was our best DT. Right now Hankins is playing next to our best DT and I don't think that's something that will be glossed over in negotiations. In the end it may not mean much, but it definitely could effect his ceiling price. Teams will bring up the player he was in 2015 and hedge that with how much they think Snacks helps his case. I know I would if I was a GM trying to assess the situation.

I think the Linval contract is probably his floor, but I'm not sure it will go too much higher even adjusting for rising contracts. But all its takes is one, so who knows.
I think the problem  
area junc : 1/20/2017 3:30 pm : link
the Giants will face RE: Hankins is he's not a very notable 3T, but he's got much more value as a 1. I can see a team needing a run stuffing NT paying him more than NYG and letting him get as big as he wants.
Linval = Floor, Snacks = Ceiling  
giants#1 : 1/20/2017 3:31 pm : link
which is basically how I got to my $7.5M per year estimate for Hankins (roughly the middle of the two AAVs).

One thing that could potentially push Hankins more towards the Snacks deal is that he has shown more pass rush ability than either Linval or Snacks did when they were FAs. Granted it's been 3 years, but Hankins did finish with 7 sacks in a season once. I love Snacks, but he doesn't even have 7 for his career!
RE: I think the problem  
giants#1 : 1/20/2017 3:33 pm : link
In comment 13334308 area junc said:
Quote:
the Giants will face RE: Hankins is he's not a very notable 3T, but he's got much more value as a 1. I can see a team needing a run stuffing NT paying him more than NYG and letting him get as big as he wants.


Maybe, but until the Giants did it with Snacks last year, run stuffing DTs almost never got big money. And even then, Snacks is making less than half what Fletcher Cox just signed for.
i think someone could offer him custom gloves  
EricJ : 1/20/2017 3:39 pm : link
.
Jpp won't get Vernon money  
djm : 1/20/2017 9:13 pm : link
Say you want about his abilities and production, which are certainly elite, he won't get Vernon guaranteed money because he's not as clean a player heading into UFA. Vernon was virtually spotless. Forget the hand which for the sake of posterity we assume it's fine going forward-- jpp has the back and the sports hernia. He's also played three more seasons in the NFL than vernon did prior to signing here. Three more years of erosion and two major injuries will impact guaranteed money every single time. People forget how clean and safe Vernon was last year. That's why he was paid the loot.
Correction  
djm : 1/20/2017 9:15 pm : link
Jpp played two more seasons than Vernon...albeit he missed half of one...
Bet JPP gets a ton  
Giants2012 : 1/20/2017 9:20 pm : link
and the media drools over him for a year . . . and then he fades.

What do you think JPP could fetch.....  
johnboyw : 1/21/2017 10:15 am : link
How about a bucket of water. This guy has had one or two good years in the league since he was drafted. Last year he had five or six good games sandwiched between five or six mediocre games and another four or five on the shelf. The year before he blew off half his hand screwing with fireworks. And he thinks that entitles him to a big payday? Screw him. Offer him what's reasonable and rational. If he doesn't like it, let him walk. His career has not been consistent enough to warrant paying him what he wants and somehow thinks he's worth. Is there anyone who can tell me what we'll get from him next year based on his track record? So how can you pay big money for that?
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