FYI...
can't link the article because I am not and will never be an ESPN Insider subscriber.
Amazing the Mets with all the trades and graduations the past few years can have climbed back to #7, but Law is usually neutral on the Mets IMO (as opposed to the Red Sox who I think he overrates).
He gushes over the Yankees saying they have three of the top 6 prospects in baseball and basically says any of the top 3 could have been #1. Loves the trades they made.
if anyone has an Insider subscription and if anyone cares they can add more of his commentary.
Rankings don't mean a whole lot, but I always feel like it's better to be highly ranked than not.
Braves #1, SD #3. Pirates 4, Dodgers #5. That's all I can see.
I do have a link to metsmerizedonline that discusses the Mets ranking.
Mets were 16th in his rankings last year.
Law on Mets farm - (
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Some of these guys can make an impact at the MLB level around the same time the Yankees sign Harper.
whoever signs Harper is going to severely overpay and regret it for a long time. He's more hype than production. He is not Mike Trout.
He's better than anyone on the Yankees right now. Having Bird, Sanchez, Harper back to back to back would be unbelievable.
I think Swanson qualifies by one at-bat. Probably intentional, so he qualifies for rookie of the year.
He does for the money he wants. And he has a doosh-like quality about him. NY may not be an ideal spot for him. And it's not solely about affording the money. It's about making your roster inflexible with an untradeable contract. (see Arod, Texiera, Ellsbury, Sabbathia)
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he needs to be a 4 fWAR player. I wouldnt worry about the Yankees money. There is no cap, and they have lots of it.
He does for the money he wants. And he has a doosh-like quality about him. NY may not be an ideal spot for him. And it's not solely about affording the money. It's about making your roster inflexible with an untradeable contract. (see Arod, Texiera, Ellsbury, Sabbathia)
Really the Yankees are going to be hesitant about signing a douche bag?
All those guys were in their 30s when they got untraceable contracts. This dude is 24 right now and hit 40 HRs as a 22 year old. Wouldn't worry about his contract at all.
I think Swanson qualifies by one at-bat. Probably intentional, so he qualifies for rookie of the year.
Both Gsellman and Swanson barely qualified. Both are eligible for ROY this year. Lugo is ineligible (not that he was winning ROY).
Can someone tell me who are those 3 of the top 6 Yankee prospects? I'm guessing Torres, Frazier and Kaprielian.
Can someone tell me who are those 3 of the top 6 Yankee prospects? I'm guessing Torres, Frazier and Kaprielian.
Torres and Frazier are likely, but I can't see Kaprielian that high, he hasn't really pitched yet. Maybe Mateo?
Here is what he said and I can only see part of the article b/c it's ESPN Insider.
I read three of their current top 6 as three of the current top 6. Sorry.
Yeah he's an outlier here in large part because he's been high on Nimmo, Cecchini, Smith for a while (backed away from that on Nimmo and Cecchini a bit recently). As I noted above Eddy has them 10-15.
It's amazing how far they have come in 2 and a half years. This season will be the start of the future with Swanson and Foltynewicz getting more experience along with the likely arrivals of 2B Ozzie Albies, LHP Sean Newcomb, LHP AJ Minter (arguably the best relief prospect in baseball), 3b Rio Ruiz, and several relief prospects like ex-met Akeel Morris. Players like RHP Lucas Sims, OF Dustin Peterson, and LHP Max Fried may be post all-star break or September call-ups as well.
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In comment 13333968 Deej said:
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he needs to be a 4 fWAR player. I wouldnt worry about the Yankees money. There is no cap, and they have lots of it.
He does for the money he wants. And he has a doosh-like quality about him. NY may not be an ideal spot for him. And it's not solely about affording the money. It's about making your roster inflexible with an untradeable contract. (see Arod, Texiera, Ellsbury, Sabbathia)
Really the Yankees are going to be hesitant about signing a douche bag?
All those guys were in their 30s when they got untraceable contracts. This dude is 24 right now and hit 40 HRs as a 22 year old. Wouldn't worry about his contract at all.
All I'm saying is that he isn't a slam dunk. Look at his full body of work. 1 outstanding season, 4 pretty good seasons.
I am not by any means an expert or proponent of advance stats, but for those who put value in it, for the last 5 yrs, Harper has a 21.3 WAR, Chris Davis 18.1. Not saying Harper isn't better and of course younger, but you could get production cheaper, and quite possibly home grown, controllable production.
2016 rank: 13
I’m so glad something is finally going right for Yankee fans, who have been suffering for, like, seven whole years now, but this system is absolutely loaded.
Brian Cashman went bananas once he got the green light to turn the roster over, flipping two very good relievers for enormous packages that gave the Yanks three of their current top six prospects. The other three are all recent first-round picks, and the system is full of the products of the team’s drafts, a side benefit of the end of their trades of prospects for veterans to prop up the aging big-league roster.
The system just keeps on going, with tons of pitching depth, a passel of natural shortstops -- we need a better collective noun for that; a "belanger" of shortstops, perhaps -– who will end up playing all over the diamond, and a lot of outfielders who rake. Even Dermis Garcia, who isn’t among their 20 best prospects, has 80 raw power and finished second in the advanced-rookie Appalachian League in homers as an 18-year-old.
There’s no weakness here. They will trot out teams full of prospects at every level, and several of them will show up in the Bronx this year. I don’t know if Gleyber Torres is the new Jeter or James Kaprelian the new Pettitte, but I’ll take that bet.
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The Phillies have also promoted several prospects which is part of the reason they are so low. As DMM said they may lack quantity of they have several high quality prospects including the #2 overall prospect in baseball according to MLB.com in JP Crawford. They also have the top catching prospect in baseball Jorge Alfaro, along with the 49th overall OF Nick Williams.
3. Dominic Smith, Mets
Smith, the No. 3 prospect on this list a year ago, moved up to Double-A in 2016 and enjoyed his best full-season campaign, setting career highs in home runs (14), RBIs (91) and OPS (.824). A potential plus hitter with 15-plus homer potential, the 21-year-old Smith is also a gifted defender at first base who earns high praise for his footwork and glove.
They snubbed Gsellman, no Mets made their top 10 RHP or LHP prospects.
Randolph, crawford, and williams disappointed. It's ok. Guys like kilomme and sixto Sanchez could be top 50 guys by end of the year.
Not totally fair.
He'll sit 92-93 as a starter and has touched 96 a handful of times this spring, with good sink on the pitch that comes from the low slot, helping him generate groundballs. He turns his low-80s changeup over well, surprising given his arm slot, but it's more of an action change that relies on its downward movement and big-league hitters will lay off it when it's out of the zone. He's thrown a loopy curveball and a harder slider, with a better chance to make the slider work from that low slot, but neither is an average pitch and he primarily works with the fastball and change.
His arm action is ugly, long and complex in the back with a high elbow, and he drifts forward in a crouch more commonly seen on sidearmers and submariners. If I did draft him, I'd see if I could raise his slot just enough to get him better angle on the slider and get him to take advantage of his height. His current delivery, slot, and repertoire make him look a lot like a reliever to me.
I'm not going to defend Law, I couldn't stand him for a long time because of his douchiness on twitter (and other media), but he's much better than he used to be.
And at least he finally admits he was wrong on Sale. For so long he'd dig in his heels on Sale and people goaded him with it. Fun to read.
He's changed his tune somewhat. from a fan chat.
Klaw: Sale’s the slightly better pitcher, Quintana has the extra year of control, so I think it’s fair to say you expect as much for Q as for Sale. I don’t see a case for saying more or less.
Kay: With Gsellman looking like a legit starter, with a better build to handle innings (presumably) and Wheeler limited in his innings, does it make sense to use Wheeler as a high leverage reliever? His stuff looks like it would play there, less stress on the arm, and makes the bullpen much stronger. Plus I’m very high on evil DeGrom
Klaw: Yep, makes sense to me. I’m all in on Gsellman. Definite starter, right now.
Big Hen: In the Mets write up you mentioned 2 potential stars in their system — I assume Rosario is 1, but is the other Dom Smith ?? surprised to hear potential star upside with him and not very solid regular.
Klaw: It’s been very weird how even Mets fans have tended to believe the worst on Smith, even though he was the 11th pick in his draft, highly rated as an amateur, and has been young for everywhere he’s played. Dude can hit.
Nick from Somerville: Cameron Planck? what’s his upside? Seems like a lot of cash for a 11th rounder
Klaw: They’re expecting a pretty constant output from him, hoping he’ll add some length to their rotation, and that he doesn’t end up a max effort guy.
Garrett: Is Peter Alonso ever a factor for the Mets at the MLB level?
Klaw: I think so, unless he’s blocked by Smith. Alonso can hit.
Joe: You said three first rounders for the Yankees are among their top six prospects. When did you come around so much on Cito Culver?
Klaw: I remember getting yelled at by Yankee fans for disliking the Culver and Bichette picks – neither was on my predraft top 100s in their respective years – but that seems to have stopped now. And they’ve been on an absolute roll in the draft, too.
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And yet Sale fell to the 13th pick in the draft which suggests Keith law wasn't the only one who didn't expect Sale to be this good. A thin, odd delivery guy from a small school (not as heavily scouted). What did the other 12 teams think? That Sale would be an ace?
I asked him who had higher ceiling? Daniel Bard or Chris Sale. He liked Bard.
Eddy had them 10-15, closer to 15
As Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Braves, and Red Sox fans on here, among other teams I'm sure we've all seen prospects rated universally by the experts who flame out.
I mean you don't need to look back to too far as Mets fans to see Fernando Martinez as a top 20 prospect in baseball, Lastings Milledge top 10, etc. They all have different reasons why they fail.
Which is why I send in the OP rankings are sort of meaningless, but I'd rather be highly ranked than not. If nothing else it helps with trades. When you can send the n rated prospect in baseball for player X it adds some credibility.
but like everything else involving projection, it's somewhat of a crapshoot.
What I do finally commend Law for is acknowledging the miss and explaining his rationale.
Which for a while he refused to do and not many people will address their misses.
I asked him who had higher ceiling? Daniel Bard or Chris Sale. He liked Bard.
So condescending, I couldn't stand him. He's not as bad now IMO.
I don't like him having the lazy label, but a pudgy first baseman doesn't bother me if he can hit and field. I mean Vaughn, Fielder and I'm sure many other 1B didn't look like track stars.
I don't like him having the lazy label, but a pudgy first baseman doesn't bother me if he can hit and field. I mean Vaughn, Fielder and I'm sure many other 1B didn't look like track stars.
Problem with heavy position players is they generally don't last very long. There is no DH in the NL (obviously) and part of Dom's value is his defense at 1b, his power will most likely be below average for the position so the defense is supposed to make up for it. Mo Vaughn and Fielder were DH's (In Vaughn's case a DH playing 1b).
"Law added that he believes Smith is a safe bet to be a .300 hitter with 20-homer upside with sparkling defense at first base. However, Law says his upside may only be reached if Smith "keeps his uniform buttons from bursting," as Law points out Smith could be skipping basic conditioning, resulting in sloppy defense in the Arizona Fall League."
#2 Dansby Swanson, 22 yo Atlanta
#4 Amed Rosario, 21 yo Mets
#5 Ozzie Albies, 20 yo Atlanta