NFT: Keith Law: MLB Farm Systems: Mets #7 Yankees #2

and I'd be surprised if BA had them that high. It's not a bad system, but I think they're a year or two away from recovering from the variety of graduations they've had and again being a Top 10 system. But you have a jewel in Rosario and if Dom Smith becomes what Law thinks he could you could still get a lot of mileage.

I participated in some of those chats. Guy was such an arrogant prick.
I asked him who had higher ceiling? Daniel Bard or Chris Sale. He liked Bard.

In comment 13334298 Dunedin81 said:

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and I'd be surprised if BA had them that high. It's not a bad system, but I think they're a year or two away from recovering from the variety of graduations they've had and again being a Top 10 system. But you have a jewel in Rosario and if Dom Smith becomes what Law thinks he could you could still get a lot of mileage.

Eddy had them 10-15, closer to 15

none of these analysts or experts are always right.

As Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Braves, and Red Sox fans on here, among other teams I'm sure we've all seen prospects rated universally by the experts who flame out.

I mean you don't need to look back to too far as Mets fans to see Fernando Martinez as a top 20 prospect in baseball, Lastings Milledge top 10, etc. They all have different reasons why they fail.

Which is why I send in the OP rankings are sort of meaningless, but I'd rather be highly ranked than not. If nothing else it helps with trades. When you can send the n rated prospect in baseball for player X it adds some credibility.

but like everything else involving projection, it's somewhat of a crapshoot.

What I do finally commend Law for is acknowledging the miss and explaining his rationale.

Which for a while he refused to do and not many people will address their misses.

In comment 13334301 TunaKing said:

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I participated in some of those chats. Guy was such an arrogant prick. I asked him who had higher ceiling? Daniel Bard or Chris Sale. He liked Bard.

So condescending, I couldn't stand him. He's not as bad now IMO.

Legit question Dan. But at the same time, he had his best season don is one of those prospects that people always love to focus on what he can't do rather than what he can. Probably for the better - it motivates him. And takes all the pressure off.

with the added weight as long as it didn't impact his play negatively, I envisioned him like a less powerful Mo Vaughn and he was developing the body to match.

I don't like him having the lazy label, but a pudgy first baseman doesn't bother me if he can hit and field. I mean Vaughn, Fielder and I'm sure many other 1B didn't look like track stars.

In comment 13334316 pjcas18 said:

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with the added weight as long as it didn't impact his play negatively, I envisioned him like a less powerful Mo Vaughn and he was developing the body to match. I don't like him having the lazy label, but a pudgy first baseman doesn't bother me if he can hit and field. I mean Vaughn, Fielder and I'm sure many other 1B didn't look like track stars.

Problem with heavy position players is they generally don't last very long. There is no DH in the NL (obviously) and part of Dom's value is his defense at 1b, his power will most likely be below average for the position so the defense is supposed to make up for it. Mo Vaughn and Fielder were DH's (In Vaughn's case a DH playing 1b).

should be noted that Law is Smith's #1 fan and even he has knocked his weight gain/fitness level/potential impact going forward (and again Law has routinely been high on him).

as an example

"Law added that he believes Smith is a safe bet to be a .300 hitter with 20-homer upside with sparkling defense at first base. However, Law says his upside may only be reached if Smith "keeps his uniform buttons from bursting," as Law points out Smith could be skipping basic conditioning, resulting in sloppy defense in the Arizona Fall League."

Four of the top five SS prospects come from the NL East. #1 J.P. Crawford, 22 yo Phillies
#2 Dansby Swanson, 22 yo Atlanta
#4 Amed Rosario, 21 yo Mets
#5 Ozzie Albies, 20 yo Atlanta