|
|
Â
|
| Quote: |
"Defensive end made sense (at 23). I thought about pushing them (Stanford running back Christian) McCaffrey, but Paul Perkins development late in the year nixed that. If they can move Flowers over to the right side and Ramczyk is an adequate left tackle, same thing with (Garret) Bolles, then they would help that offensive line and help out Eli Manning. You want the pass rusher? See if Taco Charlton drops down that far. He would make a lot of sense. I would look at him over the offensive tackle, depends on their grade on the other defensive ends like Derek Barnett … One of those two spots they should be able to fill with that pick.” |
| Quote: |
Kiper also vouched for the widespread belief that this is a strong year for the tight end class, a position where the Giants are in need of help. “This is the year,” Kiper said. “If you want a tight end this is a year you should be able to get one.” |
And the likelihood of drafting a DE at 23 increases if JPP is not brought back.
Normally I'd agree, but this is Ben, not TC. Might this be the year we go against form? He had to have seen what the lack of real TE production most likely cost us, especially Eli, imo
Also a lot of people say TE would've been the pick at 40 last year had the Chargers not taken Hunter Henry.
I dont think RB belongs in that conversation when we drafted David Wilson with a first and there was interest in Ingram and Spiller.
This year I believe DE,CB and TE will be in play.
Taco Charlton could very well be the pick in 1, especially if JPP is gone. But there are a good half dozen TEs they might like anywhere from 1-4.
Njoku
Howard
Everett
Leggett
Butt
Hodges
Engram
I expect us to have a real TE, not one of these projects who we have to work out at/teach the position. I wonder how Gilbride will do with a legit player for once.
It's overly simplistic to just look at history and say this is what they'll do. The Giants have never been this loaded at CB under Reese. DE -- definitely the target if JPP is gone, not as much if JPP stays. WR -- doubtful; I don't see a 1st spent on a WR3, WR2 best case scenario.
You have to look at the current roster and the talent likely to be around at 23. DE is a strong possibility, but so is TE and LB.
Reese drafts for need and value. Early indications are the value is going to be at the aforementioned spots when the Giants are on the clock.
Why does Dallas' pick have anything at all to do with who the Giants take? You wouldn't take an OL simply because Dallas may not? Weird.
1. Trubisky, QB
2. Njoku, TE
3. Garcia, OT
4. Foreman, RB
I would not complain if the draft went that way. Anything could happen!
And HELL YES they need another OT, and YES YES YES they need a fucking TE who isn't a play-killer that cripples the offense.
Yes, there are positions they devalue and positions they emphasize. However we also know they rank players in rows made of up of guys they consider of equal value, and then they pick a player from the top row. The row ranking includes the value the team places on the position.
Once the rows are set, the first consideration is what row the prospect is in. All other considerations are secondary.
Example: Let's assume the rows at the top of the draft are small, because there's more separation among the top prospects, and less separation among lesser prospects. So the rows get bigger as the draft goes along. Maybe something like this...
Row 1 -- 2 players
Row 2 -- 3 players
Row 3 -- 4 players
Row 4 -- 6 players
Row 5 -- 8 players
Row 6 -- 8 players
Row 7 -- 9 players
That's 40 players, 23 players of them the first 5 rows. So Reese et al know that one of the players in the first 5 rows will be there at #23.
When the Giants are on the clock, 22 guys are gone: all nine guys in rows 1-3, five guys from row 4 and seven guys from row 5. Two guys the Giants had in row 6 were taken, because other teams rank players differently.
If the guy from row 4 is a TE and the guys from row 5 are a DE and OT, BBIers are throwing their remotes, because the Giants are taking the TE. There's no "But we need a pass rusher!" or "We have GOT to fix the O-line!" in the Giants' war room. Fans think that way, but the Giants stick to their board. If the TE on the board is on a higher row, the Giants have long since ranked him as a superior prospect, given that the value of the position is already built into the rankings. So he'll be the guy.
On the other hand, if there are two guys from the same row, and one's a TE and the other is an OT, and the Giants are still short a tackle, they'll take the tackle. Need breaks the tie -- but there has to be a tie to break.
If there are multiple guys on the same row, then the decisions get more complicated. I assume that is usually the case later in the draft.
We have lots of evidence that's this is how it works from interviews the Giants' execs have given over the years. Reese et al have talked about trusting their board. They put in a huge amount of work to create it, so that's what they rely on during the draft. It's why the stuff about Reese "panicking" with the pick of David Wilson was obviously bullshit. They spent months assembling their board, so if the draft doesn't go the way they hope, there's nothing to panic about. Guy you hoped would fall to you is gone? No problem, go with the board. Guy at a position you need is there but so is a prospect you figured would be gone has fallen to you? Go with the board.
Last season's no-linemen draft was almost certainly the Giants going entirely with their board, taking the top guys remaining and not saying "Yeah, but we have to draft linemen."
Quote:
We'll see, not sure Howard's in that class though. At #23, they could be more unpredictable but the needs at DE, WR, and CB aren't likely touched via UFA, leaving them for the draft.
It's overly simplistic to just look at history and say this is what they'll do. The Giants have never been this loaded at CB under Reese. DE -- definitely the target if JPP is gone, not as much if JPP stays. WR -- doubtful; I don't see a 1st spent on a WR3, WR2 best case scenario.
You have to look at the current roster and the talent likely to be around at 23. DE is a strong possibility, but so is TE and LB.
Reese drafts for need and value. Early indications are the value is going to be at the aforementioned spots when the Giants are on the clock.
Respectfully, perhaps you're new here. I've written many breakdowns and opinions and taken great pains at times, but when nyg is on the clock early in drafts, they most often draft their premium positions.
They'll draft a pass rusher, but not likely a LB without rushing skills. They'll draft a weapon at RB, but one with a skillset and explosive athletic ability that isn't found easily.
I've gotten lazy with draft talk because they're preictable in most years. The need picks have often been premium positions as well.
It could differ a bit because they're picking late this year, but they've been pretty transparent at draft time.
Floyd was a pass rusher...big difference there.
You guys fight this and argue it every year because you don't want it to be true, but Jon is correct; the Giants are not inclined to pick a LB or TE in the first.
This year I'd expect edge rusher, LT or WR depending on how the board falls and what happens in March.
Yes, there are positions they devalue and positions they emphasize. However we also know they rank players in rows made of up of guys they consider of equal value, and then they pick a player from the top row. The row ranking includes the value the team places on the position.
Once the rows are set, the first consideration is what row the prospect is in. All other considerations are secondary.
Example: Let's assume the rows at the top of the draft are small, because there's more separation among the top prospects, and less separation among lesser prospects. So the rows get bigger as the draft goes along. Maybe something like this...
Row 1 -- 2 players
Row 2 -- 3 players
Row 3 -- 4 players
Row 4 -- 6 players
Row 5 -- 8 players
Row 6 -- 8 players
Row 7 -- 9 players
That's 40 players, 23 players of them the first 5 rows. So Reese et al know that one of the players in the first 5 rows will be there at #23.
When the Giants are on the clock, 22 guys are gone: all nine guys in rows 1-3, five guys from row 4 and seven guys from row 5. Two guys the Giants had in row 6 were taken, because other teams rank players differently.
If the guy from row 4 is a TE and the guys from row 5 are a DE and OT, BBIers are throwing their remotes, because the Giants are taking the TE. There's no "But we need a pass rusher!" or "We have GOT to fix the O-line!" in the Giants' war room. Fans think that way, but the Giants stick to their board. If the TE on the board is on a higher row, the Giants have long since ranked him as a superior prospect, given that the value of the position is already built into the rankings. So he'll be the guy.
On the other hand, if there are two guys from the same row, and one's a TE and the other is an OT, and the Giants are still short a tackle, they'll take the tackle. Need breaks the tie -- but there has to be a tie to break.
If there are multiple guys on the same row, then the decisions get more complicated. I assume that is usually the case later in the draft.
We have lots of evidence that's this is how it works from interviews the Giants' execs have given over the years. Reese et al have talked about trusting their board. They put in a huge amount of work to create it, so that's what they rely on during the draft. It's why the stuff about Reese "panicking" with the pick of David Wilson was obviously bullshit. They spent months assembling their board, so if the draft doesn't go the way they hope, there's nothing to panic about. Guy you hoped would fall to you is gone? No problem, go with the board. Guy at a position you need is there but so is a prospect you figured would be gone has fallen to you? Go with the board.
Last season's no-linemen draft was almost certainly the Giants going entirely with their board, taking the top guys remaining and not saying "Yeah, but we have to draft linemen."
A+ analysis. That's exactly how the Giants draft.
Yes, they drafted Flowers, Pugh, Richburg, Beatty, and Snee in the first two rounds, but that's only 5 premium picks on OL since 2004.
1. It's foolish to view the draft in isolation with out the FA aspect. The draft is largely about building for the future via BPA.
2. They use FA to fix holes in the "now," and when they're lucky, for the future as well (i.e. Vernon, Jenkins, etc.).
3. The combination of draft + FA NEVER fixes EVERYTHING in one offseason. There will still be holes -- especially when the pads go on and the injuries start.
Had LeSean McCoy type talent, but the Giants blew the pick because of their failure to do their homework. Wilson as spectacular as he was in college managed to get into the draft because he was already DAMAGED goods - neck injuries in college.
When he got to the pros, he was as reluctant to "stick his neck" into a block as current Giants tight end Larry Donnell. Recall another high draft pick (Marvin Austin - he hid a bad back), until he had an operation (but he never regained his college form).
Teams get fooled, I know, but when it happens with a #1 pick, that HURTS for a long time.
Also a lot of people say TE would've been the pick at 40 last year had the Chargers not taken Hunter Henry.
But that was a pass rushing LBer that they probably intended to use like Kalil Mack or Von Miller.
I think Jon C is right but as we saw with David Wilson, Giants are willing to go against their philosophy for the right guy.
I think if Howard is there, they snag him.
We have a pretty good idea of the Giants' board system, but we don't know exactly how they weight the different positions. We know some positions are considered premium (QB, OT, WR, DL, DB) and some are discounted (LB, TE, RB, OG), but we don't know how much influences rankings. (Probably quite a lot, given how rarely they draft RBs, TEs, LBs or OGs in the first round.) So it's hard for us to estimate how they would rank an top TE prospect vs the other top prospects.
I hope not Round 3. That has been the Bermuda Triangle of Reese's drafts.
And the likelihood of drafting a DE at 23 increases if JPP is not brought back.
I don't even want to consider that, Robbie. JPP should retire a Giant.