coming off serious surgery...everything sounds optimistic but what is the reality? will the Mets move him to the BP? will he start the season on the DL?
but reportedly he will be ready for spring training. He's already throwing off a mound.
and I think the Mets decide from there. I doubt he goes to the pen if he's fully healthy and feel good, but I guess it depends on how he feels in ST, his velocity and his stuff.
I don't know any medical reason he'd be in the pen.
But two very strong counteracting issues at play. A second major surgery, one that doesn't have the greatest history of success. Counteracted by one of the hardest working most competitive pitchers you can ask for who loves to prove people wrong.
So the more questions, the more conversations like this post - the increasing odds of a successful comeback.
But two very strong counteracting issues at play. A second major surgery, one that doesn't have the greatest history of success. Counteracted by one of the hardest working most competitive pitchers you can ask for who loves to prove people wrong.
So the more questions, the more conversations like this post - the increasing odds of a successful comeback.
So asking questions and discussing Harvey in an online forum increases the odds of his comeback?
the Mets were thinking of putting him in bullpen...could be wrong...
That's Wheeler. I don't like that plan either. To me (assuming everyone else is healthy) I have Wheeler getting innings in AA, Gsellman in the rotation.
honestly ignore any updates from the Mets/Harvey/Boras. They mean close to nothing. Come ST actual eyes on Harvey and his stuff will tell the story. That's not being negative, just realistic when it comes to pitchers and "how great" they feel post surgery.
lot of questions about Harvey in the next 2 years Â
I think im right in saying the Mets have him under salary control for the next 2 seasons.
I dont see him working out a deal with the Mets before he hits free agency and i can't see the Mets ponying up the bucks to keep him once he's free to negotiate with other teams
that how he looks in spring training is all that matters... Harvey did recently say that he feels great and now has full feeling in his hand again which is good. There has also been pictures that have surfaced that show he's in great shape and a tad thinner. Grain of salt but positive nonetheless. Here's a little blurb. Link - ( New Window )
expectations. He's our 4th starter so the bar is pretty low. Can he be better than most teams 4th starters? Im going to go with yes if he's even remotely healthy. If not? Oh well. He's still a wild card every team in baseball would love to throw the dice on for the back end of a rotation.
that how he looks in spring training is all that matters... Harvey did recently say that he feels great and now has full feeling in his hand again which is good. There has also been pictures that have surfaced that show he's in great shape and a tad thinner. Grain of salt but positive nonetheless. Here's a little blurb. Link - ( New Window )
Harvey claimed he was heavier by design so while it's nice to see him in shape it really doesn't do much for me in terms of how he will pitch. Remember how many times Wheeler said he felt great, was coming along great, would be back... and then... let's see how he actually looks.
Dunn has always had a good arm and is a tremendous athlete, but he didn't throw this hard (upper 90s) or throw many strikes until 2016," Law explains. "Now, Dunn is throwing 93-96 mph with plus life along with a plus changeup that might end up a 70 pitch, and he throws both for strikes."
did a podcast regarding the Mets system which was largely positive. They noted the reason for Cecchini's throwing problems are his release point/way he throws and not something that is likely correctable. They viewed Cecchini as a 50/second division regular in terms of upside at 2b (none viewed him as a viable SS). They noted he likely will be hurt by the shift to more power at 2b. Overall comments about the system were very good. They think the Mets have a decent window (depending on the health of the SP).
did a podcast regarding the Mets system which was largely positive. They noted the reason for Cecchini's throwing problems are his release point/way he throws and not something that is likely correctable. They viewed Cecchini as a 50/second division regular in terms of upside at 2b (none viewed him as a viable SS). They noted he likely will be hurt by the shift to more power at 2b. Overall comments about the system were very good. They think the Mets have a decent window (depending on the health of the SP).
Hi Dan. Do you have a link to that podcast? I'd like to give it a listen. Thanks in advance.
did a podcast regarding the Mets system which was largely positive. They noted the reason for Cecchini's throwing problems are his release point/way he throws and not something that is likely correctable. They viewed Cecchini as a 50/second division regular in terms of upside at 2b (none viewed him as a viable SS). They noted he likely will be hurt by the shift to more power at 2b. Overall comments about the system were very good. They think the Mets have a decent window (depending on the health of the SP).
Hi Dan. Do you have a link to that podcast? I'd like to give it a listen. Thanks in advance.
that how he looks in spring training is all that matters... Harvey did recently say that he feels great and now has full feeling in his hand again which is good. There has also been pictures that have surfaced that show he's in great shape and a tad thinner. Grain of salt but positive nonetheless. Here's a little blurb. Link - ( New Window )
Harvey claimed he was heavier by design so while it's nice to see him in shape it really doesn't do much for me in terms of how he will pitch. Remember how many times Wheeler said he felt great, was coming along great, would be back... and then... let's see how he actually looks.
Im more encouraged that he can actually feel his fingers again but again... Im agreeing with you.
He comes back, wins 5 in a row, we trade him for a closer.
Huh?
The start of his career was outstanding. When he went down and needed TJ, he responded by coming back and having one of the best post-TJ years ever
He was clearly not pitching at 100% last year.
Fully healthy Matt Harvey may not ever exist from this point forward, but if it did.. I would be just as comfortable with him on the mound as any pitcher on this team.
Why?
He has not done anything to make me think he will have another issue. He has had 2 bad injuries in 4 years.
I believe this will end badly and we will be left with what could have been
Couldn't live up to the pedestal he was thrust upon.
He's no Dwight Gooden.
Shouldn't have been the #1 when DeGrom and Syndergard were clearly better.
As I mentioned, not necessarily his fault but he appeared to be living the life without the production.
We're gonna need a closer, suspension aside, Familia's spirit has been broken. I wouldn't trust him anymore fan I trusted Doug Sisk and Doug Sisk is my most hated Met ever.
Harvey's a stud, just not as aloft as he's been presented, let's get something for him before he breaks down again.
The injuries really are completely unrelated though Â
and he already pretty much fully came back from the Tommy John. TOS is it's own animal, though, and quite simply there is not that many cases historically to go off of. We shall see.
If you're referring to the Dwight Gooden that burst upon the scene as a 19 year old kid, I think that's a pretty unfair comparison.. who has been?
If you take last season out of the equation since Harvey was clearly not right when he was pitching, these are his career numbers:
427 IP, 2.53 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 1.000 WHIP, 9.5 k/9
Those are ridiculously good numbers and about 190 of those innings include a first season back from TJ surgery. Good luck finding pitchers who had a better first year back than he did in 2015.
In 2013 he had the lowest FIP in all of baseball (2.01)
Like I said, Matt may never be the same pitcher... but the pitcher he was before last season was as good as anyone on this staff. Including Syndergaard and deGrom.
”Gsellman was a crafty, command right-hander until mid-2016, when his velocity started to climb rapidly, so that when he reached the majors in August, he was pitching at 92-96 mph. Gsellman is a sinkerballer by trade, complemented with the slightly above average curveball he uses as a put-away pitch as well as an average changeup — and, of course, if Dan Warthen has laid hands on a guy, he probably has a decent slider too.”
whether Harvey will return to form this year but I'm crossing my fingers and rooting my ass off hoping that it does. Mets baseball has been a lot more fun since he's come on the scene.
Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that six teams are showing interest in Fernando Salas.
Dodgers looking at Blevins for a one-year deal right? Why can't the Mets just get in on that? They've done almost nothing since retaining Cespedes.
Amazing that fucking Jay Bruce is going to hurt our bullpen by us having to pay his bloated salary (which was an option that could've easily been declined!) and maybe continue to hurt us by taking ABs away from better OFs during the season. I still cross fingers that Mets can deal him but looking at his performance over the past few years, this turn of events shouldn't surprise anyone.
Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that six teams are showing interest in Fernando Salas.
Dodgers looking at Blevins for a one-year deal right? Why can't the Mets just get in on that? They've done almost nothing since retaining Cespedes.
Amazing that fucking Jay Bruce is going to hurt our bullpen by us having to pay his bloated salary (which was an option that could've easily been declined!) and maybe continue to hurt us by taking ABs away from better OFs during the season. I still cross fingers that Mets can deal him but looking at his performance over the past few years, this turn of events shouldn't surprise anyone.
Yeah KR says the Dodgers are only offering relievers 1 year deals as of right now... problem is... the Dodgers more likely than not will offer a higher AAV than the Mets would. They don't seem to have a budget. Forsythe was a nice little add (high price no doubt).
Plus the guys that we added at the deadline (Bruce/Reyes) plus all the talent we have one level away in AAA this year banging at the door, I really dont know where we were going to be adding all this exterior talent this year. We kind of were set aside from Cespedes. I'd like to add Blevins as much as the next guy but Sandy has always been pretty firm when it has come to relievers. I'm betting the Mets have a 1-2 year deal on the table and Blevins is still shopping.
The Mets had the number 2 bullpen in all of baseball last year highlighted by having 2 of the top 6 relievers in the game in it's back-end. April suspension aside, we will still have that. I'm actually excited to see what guys like Smoker and Sewald can do under Warthen and if Robles can finally take a step forward. It will be fine and you can always add a Salas type at the deadline again.
on the Mets right now IMO is the catcher situation. TDA is such a crap shoot and we dont have immediate depth (unless you count Plawecki). We've all seen his offensive potential and we've all seen the lows and how injured he's been. He's a true boom or bust player in 2017 in my mind. I would have liked to pair him with a vet to hedge our bets better and Im a little surprised we didn't but catching league wide sucks sucks sucks. Not a whole lot we could have done I guess. I mean Wieters is still sitting out there. Does anyone even want him? I'm not a fan of his defense I know that.
If I had to rank the Mets weaknesses actually it would be Â
2.) First base depth (Smith should be in AAA but at least initially he wouldn't be able to step in). Don't want another Loney situation if Duda goes down. I guess as long as Bruce is around we would have a few options there.
really should have made a move for Chooch, would have been perfect given the need/price. If Wieters settles for 1 year with someone else I'll be pretty bummed (and I don't even like him much).
RE: If I had to rank the Mets weaknesses actually it would be Â
2.) First base depth (Smith should be in AAA but at least initially he wouldn't be able to step in). Don't want another Loney situation if Duda goes down. I guess as long as Bruce is around we would have a few options there.
3.) Middle bullpen relief/Loogy
I'm guessing at the moment that Wilmer is the primary backup 1b. AAA Monell, Krauss and Campbell are all gone so as you said there is nothing really at AAA at 1b for the first half of the season (Rivera has some 1b experience so he'd probably get some time there) + they claim Conforto will get some ST reps there.
worried about 1B. Flores vs LHP is an elite option. Duda is more than fine if healthy. Smith should be ready at some point this year. Hopefully someone like Walker could take a few 1B reps during the spring (especially because Reyes is likely a better defender at 2B).
Catcher question mark is obviously an issue but there were no obvious external solutions this offseason so we need to hope TDA is ready to go.
Bullpen still has some solutions and I'd like to see them add to the depth. Bullpen was a relative strength last year, but two guys who pitched well out of that pen left and wern't (yet) replaced.
The other big question mark (or just flat out weakness) is the team's defense as a whole, especially in the OF. None of our best 3 OFs is a CF, and while Granderson has been OK out there, it's asking a lot for him to be full-time CF for a season. TDA's struggles throwing guys out are an issue. Wright is obviously a question mark. Cabrera, Walker and Duda are OK but not really "good" either. Same for backups Rivera and Flores. Our only "plus" defender is probably Cespedes.
I'm confident that the team can overcome the defense and contend but we'll want as strong and deep a bullpen as possible, especially with 4 of our top 6 starters coming off or recovery from offseason surgery.
worried about 1B. Flores vs LHP is an elite option. Duda is more than fine if healthy. Smith should be ready at some point this year. Hopefully someone like Walker could take a few 1B reps during the spring (especially because Reyes is likely a better defender at 2B).
Catcher question mark is obviously an issue but there were no obvious external solutions this offseason so we need to hope TDA is ready to go.
Bullpen still has some solutions and I'd like to see them add to the depth. Bullpen was a relative strength last year, but two guys who pitched well out of that pen left and wern't (yet) replaced.
The other big question mark (or just flat out weakness) is the team's defense as a whole, especially in the OF. None of our best 3 OFs is a CF, and while Granderson has been OK out there, it's asking a lot for him to be full-time CF for a season. TDA's struggles throwing guys out are an issue. Wright is obviously a question mark. Cabrera, Walker and Duda are OK but not really "good" either. Same for backups Rivera and Flores. Our only "plus" defender is probably Cespedes.
I'm confident that the team can overcome the defense and contend but we'll want as strong and deep a bullpen as possible, especially with 4 of our top 6 starters coming off or recovery from offseason surgery.
Just to clarify, Cespedes is only a "plus" as a corner OF. Also, the OF gets worse if the butcher/Bruce has to play meaningful time. Hopefully Lagares and Nimmo have good camps and are ready to go because we'll want their athleticism out there. I'm actually optimistic that Lagares can sort of platoon a bit with Grandy (and Conforto sometimes) versus lefties and be an asset while taking some starts in CF. I think we'll still like that Lagares contract when it's all said and done despite it looking bad right now.
mainly because of relativity. It's a weak position league-wide.
there was something like 5 catchers above replacement level in the league that qualified.
Plus TDA was so bad, he can't really be worse. Catcher is what it is at this point.
The only thing I'm really worried about is health of the starting pitching and nothing the Mets can probably do about that besides worry and bullpen.
And I don't think there's anything meaningful they can do about that either at this point.
and I'm not going to rehash my bullpen concerns. We all saw the games and know how the Mets lost - the World Series games and the wild card.
That's a bit misleading to be honest. Catchers sit more than other positions so less will qualify. If you go with 400+ PA's 13 catchers were worth at least 1.7 fWAR and again WAR is a counting stat so you sit 30-40-50 games it's going to be very tough to put up the same # as a guy playing 150 games. That's not to say there were excellent options out there but it's potentially a real issue given how bad/injured TDA has been and how bad Plawecki has been. Potentially a total black hole.
not a CBA expert so don't quote me but it sure seems like Familia will end up with 34-35 games unless there is some room for negotiation when it comes to his service time. Last season the PA puffed out their chest and said they would fight any ban that would cost Chapman his shot at FA. I don't see why this would be any different (again, maybe there is room for negotiation where he gets both a longer man and still gets his service time, I have no idea how that works).
Dunn, Gsellman, Dom Smith and Rosario on Law's top 100. Figure 30 teams/100 prospects so the average team will have a little more than 3 (teams like the Yankees will likely have 6-7).
mainly because of relativity. It's a weak position league-wide.
there was something like 5 catchers above replacement level in the league that qualified.
Plus TDA was so bad, he can't really be worse. Catcher is what it is at this point.
The only thing I'm really worried about is health of the starting pitching and nothing the Mets can probably do about that besides worry and bullpen.
And I don't think there's anything meaningful they can do about that either at this point.
and I'm not going to rehash my bullpen concerns. We all saw the games and know how the Mets lost - the World Series games and the wild card.
That's a bit misleading to be honest. Catchers sit more than other positions so less will qualify. If you go with 400+ PA's 13 catchers were worth at least 1.7 fWAR and again WAR is a counting stat so you sit 30-40-50 games it's going to be very tough to put up the same # as a guy playing 150 games. That's not to say there were excellent options out there but it's potentially a real issue given how bad/injured TDA has been and how bad Plawecki has been. Potentially a total black hole.
Either way, misleading or not, I think it's fair to say there are not a lot of quality big league catchers. and if that's your black hole, oh well.
But more to my point, what are the Mets going to do about it now? There is almost literally nothing they can do about the catcher position at this point.
Need to hope TDA reverts back to what people expected of him, if he's close to that at least the problem is solved until he's hurt.
The main concerns I have with the Mets are health of the starting pitchers and the bullpen.
the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
"living the life" comment. People see what they want to see and clearly, have a noticeable bias.
What's my clear, noticeable bias?
That's what I thought.
If I have a Star Wars question I'll ask Z but until you have at least 50 years in as a Met fan, kindly refrain from butting into my conversations, you're not qualified.
the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
Remember... they are counting on
Jose Reyes (34 in June, injury prone)
David Wright (nuff said)
Walker (coming off back surgery)
Duda (coming off back surgery/missed season)
TDA (injury prone + awful in 2016 with the alternatives being awful for his career so far Plawecki and generally crappy bat Rene Rivera)
Lagares (injury prone, just got hurt again)
Cespedes (whom I love but... injury prone)
Granderson (36 in March)
Conforto (absolutely awful in 2016)
Sure the offense could be better than average but there are so many ?? that it's really hard for me to have much confidence offensively. I really have to disagree with Lagares being a "nice option" offensively. The guy has posted a 79 and 84 wRC+ the past 2 seasons. The glove was incredible his first season but his bat is overall a net negative
Sad that Familia getting suspended may be the best thing that happened Â
for the BP this offseason. He and Reed are the only 2 trustworthy late game options and they're getting even less rest than last year (hence the suspension possibly being a good thing).
Losing Blevins is going to be a very big loss, the guy got big outs regularly against Harper, Freeman, Murphy. A loogy isn't a big deal until the game is close and 1 of those guys is coming to the plate.
Ziegler/Uehara (or Thornburg via trade) would have been solid additions at their respective price tags.
to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
I agree re: the offense. While built similarly to last year's team, and likely to still be pretty streaky, this year's has so much more depth built up. I expect the productivity to be much closer to what we saw in April last year vs. May/June.
has the Mets the #18 offensive team in baseball in 2016, 16th in wRC+, 17th in wOBA. I think my depiction of an average offense is more than fair. It's not like they have made any additions. Hopefully healthy Duda makes an impact and/or TDA is solid.
to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
has the Mets the #18 offensive team in baseball in 2016, 16th in wRC+, 17th in wOBA. I think my depiction of an average offense is more than fair. It's not like they have made any additions. Hopefully healthy Duda makes an impact and/or TDA is solid.
Well they get Wright back. LOL, Ok I hate having fun at the captain's expense, but whatever, sometimes have to laugh.
Seriously though I agree with you.
From an optimistic standpoint though you can look at:
Duda returning
TDA improving
Conforto improving
Reyes full season (or however much be plays) at leadoff (though not like he's a portrait of health)
Walker returning
to think the Mets offense could/should be better than last year if they can escape the dreaded injury bug.
to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
Excellent his first year, since then he's more "good". 2015+2016 he's been worth 4 DRS, 2014 he was worth 6, 2013 he was worth a pretty remarkable +14. Past 2 seasons CF with 1000 or more innings in CF he ranks 13th.
has the Mets the #18 offensive team in baseball in 2016, 16th in wRC+, 17th in wOBA. I think my depiction of an average offense is more than fair. It's not like they have made any additions. Hopefully healthy Duda makes an impact and/or TDA is solid.
Well they get Wright back. LOL, Ok I hate having fun at the captain's expense, but whatever, sometimes have to laugh.
Seriously though I agree with you.
From an optimistic standpoint though you can look at:
Duda returning
TDA improving
Conforto improving
Reyes full season (or however much be plays) at leadoff (though not like he's a portrait of health)
Walker returning
to think the Mets offense could/should be better than last year if they can escape the dreaded injury bug.
Sure but weighing positive/pessimistic outlooks and "guessing" somewhere in between suggests the offense is likely closer to average than a really strong offensive club. Obviously if TDA has a big year, or Conforto bounces back etc things can change. I'm not counting on Wright for much personally.
is average if the starting pitching stays healthy and the bullpen holds it together.
and yeah, I'm not counting on Wright for anything. But would be a nice bonus to get production from him, though he's said he doesn't want to be a "feel good story" which is nice, since I don't think he will be.
always root for Wright but it does put fans in a weird position IF he's not hitting. I want to win games, I don't really care about Wright and some feel good story. Give him a chance to help the team but don't obsess over the fact he's the captain or a good dude.
has the Mets the #18 offensive team in baseball in 2016, 16th in wRC+, 17th in wOBA. I think my depiction of an average offense is more than fair. It's not like they have made any additions. Hopefully healthy Duda makes an impact and/or TDA is solid.
It's 100% fair to call last year's offense average, but there are many reasons to expect this year's offense to be better than last year's.
1. Conforto (or Bruce if he's still here?) - neither would need to be an allstar to be better than Conforto was in May/June.
2. Catcher - a veteran backup should have been brought in, but it would be hard for anyone to do less than TDA did last year. He had 15 RBI's and 11 XBH.
3. Injuries - obviously Duda should upgrade 1B production. Cespedes playing LF and not CF will hopefully keep him off the DL. I don't expect anything at all from Wright and I'm not sure what Walker will be coming off the back injury but Reyes/Rivera/Cecchini/Flores are all good depth options.
always root for Wright but it does put fans in a weird position IF he's not hitting. I want to win games, I don't really care about Wright and some feel good story. Give him a chance to help the team but don't obsess over the fact he's the captain or a good dude.
Yea, this could be awkward. Almost like the Victor Cruz situation was for NYG this year but would be an even bigger microscope.
always root for Wright but it does put fans in a weird position IF he's not hitting. I want to win games, I don't really care about Wright and some feel good story. Give him a chance to help the team but don't obsess over the fact he's the captain or a good dude.
That's where Terry Collins worries me a little. How much rope does he give Wright?
to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
Excellent his first year, since then he's more "good". 2015+2016 he's been worth 4 DRS, 2014 he was worth 6, 2013 he was worth a pretty remarkable +14. Past 2 seasons CF with 1000 or more innings in CF he ranks 13th.
In his limited CF time last year his OOZ plays and UZR were basically back to 2014 levels (he only had 1 assist though). He actually made an even higher % of remote chance plays (1-10%). He's still a very good defender, the bigger issue is that he gets himself injured a lot.
always root for Wright but it does put fans in a weird position IF he's not hitting. I want to win games, I don't really care about Wright and some feel good story. Give him a chance to help the team but don't obsess over the fact he's the captain or a good dude.
That's where Terry Collins worries me a little. How much rope does he give Wright?
That will be Collin's first big challenge of the season. They can't allow him to strike out every other at bat, in front of Cespedes no less, with good options wasting away on the bench.
If the Mets can get through spring training with a healthy starting 6 (pitchers) I'll be thrilled. If they have 5 of them still healthy in September/October I'll be even more thrilled.
"living the life" comment. People see what they want to see and clearly, have a noticeable bias.
What's my clear, noticeable bias?
That's what I thought.
If I have a Star Wars question I'll ask Z but until you have at least 50 years in as a Met fan, kindly refrain from butting into my conversations, you're not qualified.
Jesus Christ man. It was pretty obvious you're one of those "Harvey cared too much about the limelight" people based on your comment. I personally don't share that belief and I doubt Arc does either. You seriously want to go rounds over this?
from one or two positions I really dont care. Obviously if TDA goes down early again we are in deep shit. If Duda wasn't healthy that would be another major issue. The rest? Meh. We have a ton of depth in the middle infield and outfield right now. You cant even really point to Wright anymore since Reyes proved he can still play last year and is essentially ready to step in immediately when needed.
Maybe it's a personal choice but I cant combine leagues when discussing team offense when the other league gets to have an extra hitter in their lineup. Mets finished 6th in wRC+ and 6th in WAR last year offensively in the NL. That's without Duda for most of the year, TDA either out or terrible, Conforto terrible or in AAA with no replacement until Bruce... Walker, Cabrera, and Cespedes all missing significant stretches, no Reyes for the first 4 months, no AAA depth ready until the second half.
I just think we are much better situated this time around. I think we are a comfortably a top 5 NL offense (but I have said that the last 3 seasons).
Bruce is still here opening day there is probably an argument for Conforto to not even be on the roster. I still believe in Conforto but Cespedes/Granderson/Bruce is likely your starting OF in that situation with Lagares the 4th, almost makes more sense to roll with Ty Kelly (especially if they deem Rivera and/or Reyes even passable in the OF). Still think Bruce is dumped before we get to that point
I also dont know what Smoker splits we are looking at Â
but he had 6 professional innings against lefties last year. The fact that his peripherals were off the charts last year in Vegas and the fact that he specifically is working on the "Warthen slider" with Warthen this offseason to have an out pitch against lefties has me pretty excited. I also dont see him as a LOOGY. If we really do nothing Edgin will be the LOOGY and Smoker is your late inning crossover guy.
Bruce is still here opening day there is probably an argument for Conforto to not even be on the roster. I still believe in Conforto but Cespedes/Granderson/Bruce is likely your starting OF in that situation with Lagares the 4th, almost makes more sense to roll with Ty Kelly (especially if they deem Rivera and/or Reyes even passable in the OF). Still think Bruce is dumped before we get to that point
Which is what they should do. Conforto shouldn't rot on the bench. Id be fine with Kelly and Lagares as my backups and Nimmo and Conforto in Vegas playing every day but obviously both would leapfrog Kelly if a major injury happened immediately.
RE: I also dont know what Smoker splits we are looking at Â
but he had 6 professional innings against lefties last year. The fact that his peripherals were off the charts last year in Vegas and the fact that he specifically is working on the "Warthen slider" with Warthen this offseason to have an out pitch against lefties has me pretty excited. I also dont see him as a LOOGY. If we really do nothing Edgin will be the LOOGY and Smoker is your late inning crossover guy.
Smoker HIMSELF said he struggled with lefties and needs to improve his slider.
at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
in sending Conforto to Vegas? Especially to start an inferior player. We're trying to win ball games. Let Bruce pitch hit if we're stuck with him.
As bad as Conforto was he still out produced Bruce (in fWar) with far less at bats. If you want to say that Conforto's production was weighted toward the beginning of the season, well... hopefully you realize how bad Bruce was during his time with the Mets.
isn't likely going to play at all if Bruce is here. If he were righty it would be a different story. I don't know that Ty Kelly is even a big leaguer but Nimmo would have the exact same PT issue. Rivera/Kelly make more sense if Bruce is here.
in sending Conforto to Vegas? Especially to start an inferior player. We're trying to win ball games. Let Bruce pitch hit if we're stuck with him.
As bad as Conforto was he still out produced Bruce (in fWar) with far less at bats. If you want to say that Conforto's production was weighted toward the beginning of the season, well... hopefully you realize how bad Bruce was during his time with the Mets.
You honestly think Jay Bruce and his 13 million are going to sit on the bench on a team managed by Terry Collins? Conforto was just as bad/even worse than Bruce (and I say that as someone who badly wanted Bruce dumped) but there is a close to 0% chance Bruce is behind Conforto on the depth chart if hes here.
at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
He looks the part and throws hard. He admitted he had to work on it so that's a good sign vs. simply saying he was unlucky or something. I'd still much prefer Blevins with Smoker as insurance however. In fact I'd like both relievers the Dodgers want.. Blanton and Blevins. Gimme both.
He would really be the 5th OF in name only as he would mostly pinch hit and fill in everywhere. Conforto and Nimmo go to AAA until Bruce is traded.
All that said, what I think they should do and what I want are two different things. I think Conforto's floor is Bruce's 2016 in 2017 and he doesn't have anything left to prove in Vegas but there's nothing we can do with the roster jam at the moment.
at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
He looks the part and throws hard. He admitted he had to work on it so that's a good sign vs. simply saying he was unlucky or something. I'd still much prefer Blevins with Smoker as insurance however. In fact I'd like both relievers the Dodgers want.. Blanton and Blevins. Gimme both.
Id be on board with that. I still think a few relievers fall through the cracks late in the off season and Sandy gets a bargain or two.
Far, far more realistic than Conlon. Lefties hit .141 against him in AA, 24.1 innings 30 k's. I like Conlon as a potential backend MLB SP but...34.2 innings vs. lefties with 13 k's means a TON of balls in play in a LOOGY role...good loogy's miss bats vs. lefties.
but I guess depth isn't a bad thing. Hard to complain about penciling in a RF who had 100 RBIs last year, though the way things go for this organization it's near certain Bruce starts the season hitting under .200 and Conforto hits 3 homers in his first game.
He's probably a lock for 25-34 HR, 100 RBIs.... wRC+ 110-115. Those guys dont grow on trees and I could care less about his WAR as a corner OF. His defensive ratings (not that it matters anyway) isn't even consistent. He turned in some pretty good defensive years in the last 5-6 here and there. The one thing I'll never understand is why people think the Mets are out looking to clear his salary. They didn't HAVE to pick up his option. They purposely spent 13 million to bring him back. Sandy will recoup that value via trade or he will keep him. He was never going to "shed" him.
a healthy Duda back... Cabrera and Walker more comfortable and relaxed year two... Grandy... Of course Ces....I really think Bruce can just sit back and chill. It's always been him and Votto in the middle of the Reds order. On the Mets, he's like the 5th or 6th best option in the lineup. I'm thinking with a lot less pressure he might do well.
Sandy apparently had assumed he would be able to move the 13 rather easily and held up reliever acquisitions to do so. I personally would have done the same (and perhaps not offer walker the qo) but it's annoying that the Mets now seem set at going into the season with a somewhat deficient bullpen as a result of the Bruce situation. Obviously I'll shut my face if they sign one of the remaining guys but as it stands now the pen is slightly concerning.
With regard to the offense, I thought the Mets were much higher from August 1st on (i.e. When ceapedes and Reyes were in lineup together for fist time). Much like two seasons ago I think looking at the offensive numbers from may is not necessarily fair for what to expect this upcoming years.
If you compared what the FO thought this team would look like going into spring training vs what it actually is looking like going into spring training - night and day. Completely whiffed on virtually all of their objectives.
With that said, Im not doom and gloom going into the season. It's been expected for virtully the entire offseason that Bruce would have to start in RF on opening day. His value can only go up trade wise. COnforto could only benefit from starting the season in LV and getting into a groove.
As painful as it will be for most to admit, resigning Ces might have been the mistake.
Sandy apparently had assumed he would be able to move the 13 rather easily and held up reliever acquisitions to do so. I personally would have done the same (and perhaps not offer walker the qo) but it's annoying that the Mets now seem set at going into the season with a somewhat deficient bullpen as a result of the Bruce situation. Obviously I'll shut my face if they sign one of the remaining guys but as it stands now the pen is slightly concerning.
With regard to the offense, I thought the Mets were much higher from August 1st on (i.e. When ceapedes and Reyes were in lineup together for fist time). Much like two seasons ago I think looking at the offensive numbers from may is not necessarily fair for what to expect this upcoming years.
I dont believe this to be true at all. There is no way we couldnt add a middle reliever or two and worry about trading Bruce later. People always think there is some exact amount in a safe and once its spent its spent or you have to clear salary to bring more on. Its not the case. Sandy has said so a million times. Even used analogy's such as : "Its like a bathtub... the water goes up and it goes down... It's fluid!" Sandy also sends a lot of smoke likely to keep prices down. If teams/players think we cant spend over X, they know where they stand and cant ask for the moon. When it comes to Blevins its all about the years. Sandy doesn't think a Loogy is worth locking into a 3 year deal. I say good.
If you compared what the FO thought this team would look like going into spring training vs what it actually is looking like going into spring training - night and day. Completely whiffed on virtually all of their objectives.
With that said, Im not doom and gloom going into the season. It's been expected for virtully the entire offseason that Bruce would have to start in RF on opening day. His value can only go up trade wise. COnforto could only benefit from starting the season in LV and getting into a groove.
As painful as it will be for most to admit, resigning Ces might have been the mistake.
Kind of an odd statement but that's insider stuff that your privy to that only confuses everyone probably. I too heard the Mets had bigger plans early in the offseason and nothing materialized but obviously what you're saying doesn't make much sense to most IMO.
and if he is then you know he's not happy with the team as currently constituted for at least two reasons that came directly from Sandy.
1. He acknowledged payroll is higher than they like, or in Sandy's words "payroll is an issue"
2. He doesn't like the roster right now in terms of playing time flexibility. I take that to me too many he doesn't see a clean way to get everyone on the roster the right amount of PT (IMO too many LH OFers and too many MI's), but he didn't elaborate from what I read.
Sandy has acknowledge the bullpen is the main "un-finished" unit (my word) and he's said they're looking both internally and externally to finish it (in terms of openind day roster).
I'll wait and see the team the Mets field on April 3 against the Braves and I'm going to say 75% chance or more it's different than the one today.
On another topic the Mets schedule is weird, but I think primed for a good start.
they open with 16 games against the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins and 26 of their first 32 games are against that trio (Nats sandwiched in there for 6 too)
What I find somewhat weird is they don't play outside the NL East until May 8.
"Szapucki was the Mets’ fifth-round pick in the 2015 draft as a 19-year-old senior out of high school in West Palm Beach, but he pitched just two innings that summer after he signed, so he came into 2016 as just another guy in the system. Then he delivered a true breakout season, as he moved from the Appy League to the New York-Penn League and dominated at both stops. He did so working a 92-96 mph fastball with a wipeout curveball and good command of both pitches, as well as a nascent changeup that he has taken from nonexistent to average in a year.
His season ended in mid-August after just nine starts and 52 innings due to back soreness, but before that, he showed at least mid-rotation potential, between the out pitch in the curveball and the ability to throw everything for strikes. This will be a big year for him developmentally, as he’ll be asked to throw most of a full season, and his stuff alone should dominate low-A hitters. His potential to turn into even a solid No. 3 starter would be an enormous success story for a team’s fifth-round pick."
So far Szapucki, Gsellman, and Dunn all in the 100 Â
The real issue right now is the bullpen. We really have done nothing to strengthen it and between Familia likely being suspended 30 games or so and Blevins not being back (as of yet at least) I have pretty legitimate concerns about the overall depth back there.
I also think it's a lot to expect Reed to replicate his 2016. Chances are he regresses at least slightly.
RE: So far Szapucki, Gsellman, and Dunn all in the 100 Â
Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
and the pen will evolve as the season moves along like it always does. Some spring training invites might impress (like Henderson last year) some young upside arms might impress (like Sewald and Smoker) and the two horses at the end will still be there for most of it. Reed saved 100 games over a 3 year stretch and seems to be pitching his best baseball under Warthen's tutelage right now. Sure, maybe, he's not a top 6 reliever in the game last year (that includes closers) but as a 8th inning guy? Im betting he's still close to top of the heap. The pen will evolve and we can always add guys at the deadline. We also dont know exactly where Wheeler, Lugo and others are going. Im not worried at all. Middle relievers generally dont effect wins and losses in terms of the season.
RE: RE: So far Szapucki, Gsellman, and Dunn all in the 100 Â
Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
due respect but you can't have it both ways and Bruce both being "underrated" and praising his bat and "defensive issues overblown" AND have extremely limited trade interest in him. The entire league is wrong on the value of Jay Bruce? Doesn't that seem unlikely?
He's probably a lock for 25-34 HR, 100 RBIs.... wRC+ 110-115. Those guys dont grow on trees and I could care less about his WAR as a corner OF. His defensive ratings (not that it matters anyway) isn't even consistent. He turned in some pretty good defensive years in the last 5-6 here and there. The one thing I'll never understand is why people think the Mets are out looking to clear his salary. They didn't HAVE to pick up his option. They purposely spent 13 million to bring him back. Sandy will recoup that value via trade or he will keep him. He was never going to "shed" him.
He's been below 110 wRC 2 of the past 3 years, so how is he a "lock" to be 110-115 wRC? I'm not saying he has no chance at hitting in that range, just not sure why you think he's a "lock."
Also, these types of players, slightly above average hitters but useless in the field, do sort of grow on trees. Look at how little money these types of guys got on the open market this offseason. Sandy clearly tried to dump Bruce and no one wanted him for that salary (I wasn't surprised, but I believe you repeated 100X how he'd easily be tradeable). There's not a chance in hell Bruce would even get $10M on the open market if he was an FA.
It was a tactical error by Sandy to pick up the option. It doubled down on the error that he made by trading for this bum. Hopefully he doesn't triple down on the error and give Conforto's ABs to Bruce.
RE: RE: RE: So far Szapucki, Gsellman, and Dunn all in the 100 Â
Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
There is a 0% chance Lindsay is a top 60 prospect in baseball already. 2 professional seasons he's managed to play 72 games hitting 5 homers with 6 steals. In fairness, largely due to his injuries but he was a 2nd round pick so it's not as if he was viewed as some monster prospect (and I say that as someone who really likes him). Sickels named him the #7 prospect in the Mets system last week.
due respect but you can't have it both ways and Bruce both being "underrated" and praising his bat and "defensive issues overblown" AND have extremely limited trade interest in him. The entire league is wrong on the value of Jay Bruce? Doesn't that seem unlikely?
Yeah. I just think the market is very saturated this year. Bautista, Encarnacion, Trumbo... ect. Most are signing for much less than was expected and very late in the offseason. Its just one of those years. I believe they will come calling once injuries hit in the season and things start to get shook up a bit. I also know Sandy is asking for TWO legit prospects so it's not like they just "dont want him". We dont really know whats going on behind the scenes.
hurt his knee a few years back and has yet to return to the player he was previously both with the bat and in the field. He was never a 'great" fielder but he's declined out there. Past 2 seasons he's 35th among OF in wRC+ (behind guys like Melky, Gardner and Markakis), 34th in wOBA. He's obviously not a defensive asset so teams are grading him accordingly.
RE: RE: RE: RE: So far Szapucki, Gsellman, and Dunn all in the 100 Â
Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
There is a 0% chance Lindsay is a top 60 prospect in baseball already. 2 professional seasons he's managed to play 72 games hitting 5 homers with 6 steals. In fairness, largely due to his injuries but he was a 2nd round pick so it's not as if he was viewed as some monster prospect (and I say that as someone who really likes him). Sickels named him the #7 prospect in the Mets system last week.
Dude. Im not looking to argue. lol. Law seemed pretty high on him in one of his last discussions I thought. I wouldnt have him 60.
market heats up now that Sandy has said he's keeping him.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
market heats up now that Sandy has said he's keeping him.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
Meh. They have openly shopped Bruce around the league. This "announcement" doesn't change anything. Every single writer has mentioned the Mets talking Bruce with multiple teams, it's not as if teams were hot for him and now "woah they might keep him!".
RE: RE: Bruce is a decent player and he's proven. Â
He's probably a lock for 25-34 HR, 100 RBIs.... wRC+ 110-115. Those guys dont grow on trees and I could care less about his WAR as a corner OF. His defensive ratings (not that it matters anyway) isn't even consistent. He turned in some pretty good defensive years in the last 5-6 here and there. The one thing I'll never understand is why people think the Mets are out looking to clear his salary. They didn't HAVE to pick up his option. They purposely spent 13 million to bring him back. Sandy will recoup that value via trade or he will keep him. He was never going to "shed" him.
He's been below 110 wRC 2 of the past 3 years, so how is he a "lock" to be 110-115 wRC? I'm not saying he has no chance at hitting in that range, just not sure why you think he's a "lock."
Also, these types of players, slightly above average hitters but useless in the field, do sort of grow on trees. Look at how little money these types of guys got on the open market this offseason. Sandy clearly tried to dump Bruce and no one wanted him for that salary (I wasn't surprised, but I believe you repeated 100X how he'd easily be tradeable). There's not a chance in hell Bruce would even get $10M on the open market if he was an FA.
It was a tactical error by Sandy to pick up the option. It doubled down on the error that he made by trading for this bum. Hopefully he doesn't triple down on the error and give Conforto's ABs to Bruce.
We will see if it was an error or not. The only way to prove that would be for him to get zero return, keep him all year, and Bruce have a shitty year. The chances of all of that happening are slim IMO. Bruce was coming off some injuries and had two down years in 14/15. His last 5 healthy years were 124, 119, 120, 117, 111. I expect him in that range if healthy, even if its the low end. He's only 29.
Cespedes has a 19 year old brother playing in Cuba who goes by Yoekis Cespedes Maceo. He looks JUST like Yoenis. Hit .297/.361/.460 (which actually isn't very good for Cuba) but he's only 19 so who knows?
Yes and Steamer take 3 year averages and 14/15 were Bruce's two worst years ever and he was coming off injuries. I do think Conforto's floor is Bruce but Bruce is more proven a sure thing. Im only guessing with Conforto.
market heats up now that Sandy has said he's keeping him.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
Meh. They have openly shopped Bruce around the league. This "announcement" doesn't change anything. Every single writer has mentioned the Mets talking Bruce with multiple teams, it's not as if teams were hot for him and now "woah they might keep him!".
Just trying to find a positive spin.
Sometimes the off-the-market house is more coveted than one you're actively shopping.
Plus there will be spring training injuries, just hopefully not to the Mets this year. Someone will need Bruce before the Spring ends.
I don't believe Sandy intends to go into the season with this roster (not just BP, position players too).
they may yet move Bruce (I suspect they will). I just don't think there is any impact at all on the Mets leaking they want him to be the starting RF. Teams know he was/is available. Rosenthal suggested the Mets could move him if they included salary and didn't expect much of a return aka teams aren't offering much even with him available.
on Bruce wasn't a tactical error. Not being willing and or able to add $6M for Uehara (for example) in case he can't unload Bruce was the tactical error.
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
market heats up now that Sandy has said he's keeping him.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
First of all, I never said he "wanted to keep him". I was simply saying he knew what he was doing. If he now simply wanted to shed his salary (Ive seen this suggested) he would have simply never picked up the option and went with Conforto from the beginning. He believed 13 million was a value deal for Bruce and I agree with him. I do agree with aspects of your point though. We all know this is another negotiating ploy to make it seem like he is no longer available. Sandy will still trade Bruce if he gets a suitable return obviously.
Bruce is the starter than I'd like to see Conforto playing in LV. Just very few AB's for Conforto with a lefty CF, lefty RF and Cespedes. You aren't putting Conforto in the OF for defense either. He's solid out there but you don't pull a grandy or Cespedes for him.
on Bruce wasn't a tactical error. Not being willing and or able to add $6M for Uehara (for example) in case he can't unload Bruce was the tactical error.
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
+10. The issue is being unwilling/unable to add salary before moving Bruce's salary (ZGiants if you want to argue this point I'm just not interested in dissecting Sandy's quotes. He made clear Bruce's salary impacted going after more expensive reliever options, if you disagree that is fine).
Bruce is the starter than I'd like to see Conforto playing in LV. Just very few AB's for Conforto with a lefty CF, lefty RF and Cespedes. You aren't putting Conforto in the OF for defense either. He's solid out there but you don't pull a grandy or Cespedes for him.
actually had a slightly lower FIP than Robles and I think most people would have been happy with adding a "second Robles" with a track record of being much better than that vs. what they have done so far. Kind of strange statement... you rave about Robles, if the Mets signed his twin brother with the exact same numbers you'd be raving about the move...
on Bruce wasn't a tactical error. Not being willing and or able to add $6M for Uehara (for example) in case he can't unload Bruce was the tactical error.
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
+10. The issue is being unwilling/unable to add salary before moving Bruce's salary (ZGiants if you want to argue this point I'm just not interested in dissecting Sandy's quotes. He made clear Bruce's salary impacted going after more expensive reliever options, if you disagree that is fine).
That's fine. Proof will be in the pudding. If he signs a Blevins and a Salas with Bruce still on the roster before opening day we'll know there was in fact more money and it was smoke.
still believe in Conforto but he's a bad year away from being viewed as a nobody. He's young but he's not a baby (24 this season). I think he bounces back but he's not a Buxton. Teams aren't going to give you a ton based on his upside because if he doesn't hit he's not a major leaguer and he can't hit lefties then his upside is what? An inferior Jay Bruce offensively with better (but not +) defense? The Mets have to just hope he moves on from his pull happy ways of 2016.
actually had a slightly lower FIP than Robles and I think most people would have been happy with adding a "second Robles" with a track record of being much better than that vs. what they have done so far. Kind of strange statement... you rave about Robles, if the Mets signed his twin brother with the exact same numbers you'd be raving about the move...
I dont think Robles was very good last year personally. 3.48 ERA to match a 3.56 FIP. He was a 1FWAR player. Uehara 3.45 to match a 3.51 with a 0.6 fWAR. Not a difference maker IMO and he's 42.
actually had a slightly lower FIP than Robles and I think most people would have been happy with adding a "second Robles" with a track record of being much better than that vs. what they have done so far. Kind of strange statement... you rave about Robles, if the Mets signed his twin brother with the exact same numbers you'd be raving about the move...
I dont think Robles was very good last year personally. 3.48 ERA to match a 3.56 FIP. He was a 1FWAR player. Uehara 3.45 to match a 3.51 with a 0.6 fWAR. Not a difference maker IMO and he's 42.
I'm already on record stating BBI overrates Robles thanks to his velocity. The Mets have twice relegated Robles to basically a non-factor during pennant races. He may improve (it's certainly possible) but he's an unreliable hard thrower at this point. I think they have internal options who at worst could be as good as him at some point.
But he countered them with a few bad rough patches.
I still like him as a middle reliever and think he can be a little better. He also has some value in that he's one of those guys who can throw multiple innings when we need someone to eat them up.
Like I said before, though.. I still have legit concerns about the pen.
Familia 3 run HR to what was his name on SF? a career journeyman Gillespie? was sickening.
With him suspended, who knows how Reed fares in his absence or how Familia fares when he comes back.
He (Familia) is starting to feel a lot like Armando Benitez.
And Familia was great in the PO's until the WS, but overuse I think did him in.
And it was obvious that Collins felt he didn't have many (any?) other trustworthy options in 2015.
Adding Uehara isn't adding Mariano Rivers, but it's adding another proven bullpen arm.
if the Mets can give Alejandro de Aza 6M I think Uehara, even if he's a Robles clone, is worth it, for nothing less than keeping other guys fresh and not tossing BP, plus he's got good playoff experience.
And Uehara is an example. Benoit, and others were out there too.
I still don't really think the Benitez comps are fair... Â
Familia was lights out until the WS.. and even in the WS, he got blown saves pinned on him that weren't really his fault.
Quick pitching Gordon in game 1 was 100% his fault. Those other games were tough to put on him, though.
I do completely agree that the bullpen needs more help. That would be my absolute BIGGEST focus right now. The starters and the hitters I am okay with even though we're going to be logjammed in a few spots offensively. That'll shake itself out. We have a good enough collection of bats, IMO.
took a step back last year. He racked up a ton of saves, but IMO, was fortunate not to blow more of them. His xFIP went up from 2.55 to 3.03. The metrics seem to suggest that Familia was lucky to give up so few HRs given the his GB% and the number of hard hit fly balls he gave up.
IMO, a short suspension might not be the worst thing for Familia. I feel like he was worked pretty hard last year with a lot of his innings being 25+ pitch innings. I'd like to see him try and get that BB/9 closer to 2 (instead of last year's 3.59) and hopefully he can get the K/9 over 10.
RE: I still don't really think the Benitez comps are fair... Â
Familia was lights out until the WS.. and even in the WS, he got blown saves pinned on him that weren't really his fault.
Quick pitching Gordon in game 1 was 100% his fault. Those other games were tough to put on him, though.
I do completely agree that the bullpen needs more help. That would be my absolute BIGGEST focus right now. The starters and the hitters I am okay with even though we're going to be logjammed in a few spots offensively. That'll shake itself out. We have a good enough collection of bats, IMO.
Pen has to be better.
Benitez was ridiculous in the 1999 playoffs. 9 IP, 5H, 3BB 11K's until... he had to be yanked from game 6 vs the Braves. Great until crunch time. Not saying that game was his fault, the starter for the Mets (Leiter) didn't get an out.
Benitez 2000 WS was very similar to Familia 2015 WS.
I think these guys the more they're exposed to a team or when they face a team that is patient at the plate and makes you throw strikes (like the 2000 Yankees or 2015 Royals) the less effective they get.
I have zero issue comparing Familia to Benitez. They remind me of each other. And both were/are prolific closers. Just need more mental strength and their managers need(ed) other reliable options.
I don't understand why Familia scrapped that power splitter he was throwing in 2015. That pitch was just vanishing from hitter's sightlines and they kept offering at it to no avail.
I haven't looked at the data but to my eye, he was struggling to miss bats in 2016.. it seemed like a lot of hitters were getting wood on his pitches and he was struggling to really find a put away.
actually had a slightly lower FIP than Robles and I think most people would have been happy with adding a "second Robles" with a track record of being much better than that vs. what they have done so far. Kind of strange statement... you rave about Robles, if the Mets signed his twin brother with the exact same numbers you'd be raving about the move...
I dont think Robles was very good last year personally. 3.48 ERA to match a 3.56 FIP. He was a 1FWAR player. Uehara 3.45 to match a 3.51 with a 0.6 fWAR. Not a difference maker IMO and he's 42.
I'm already on record stating BBI overrates Robles thanks to his velocity. The Mets have twice relegated Robles to basically a non-factor during pennant races. He may improve (it's certainly possible) but he's an unreliable hard thrower at this point. I think they have internal options who at worst could be as good as him at some point.
I agree with this completely and its actually my exact rational for why I wasn't frothing at the mouth for a Uehara for 6 mill. The difference between literally "any" reliever and somebody like Robles/Euhara and your likely talking tiny fractions of a win.
about Familia. Yes, he's blown crucial games in two postseason runs now but statistically he is still one of the best around and a true beast overall. He's only been to the postseason twice so you hope things would get better going forward. I just dont know what the alternative is. Euhara isn't saving us in those postseason games that's for sure. It would still come down to Familia. Do you trade him and go after another big name guy as your closer? That's really the only thing that would have made sense and I just cant see it. He's our closer for better or for worse.
of wins that philosophy might be sound, but if you want to win in the playoffs, you can't go in with the bullpen the Mets had this year.
If you want to wait until the deadline and make the move then you're looking at prospects. Who wouldn't trade signing Miller to the deal the Yankees did vs trading top end talent for him?
In November when you're wondering what happened, you can remember back to the fractions of wins that were unimportant in the off-season.
Cubs and Indians two biggest deadline acquisitions? Chapman and Miller. Coincidence?
Royals biggest asset (arguably?) Bullpen, they shortened every damn game to 6 innings, and it's where they beat the Mets.
not sure how much more evidence needs to be presented for people to understand the shift, pay now or pay more later.
and our offense couldn't score jack. There's literally nothing a better bullpen would have solved. As for mid-season additions... we acquired Salas for peanuts. Im not talking about trading the farm for a Miller. We already have two elite back-end arms.
"cant go into the playoffs with bullpen the Mets had last year".
LOL. They had the second best bullpen in baseball. What a joke.
How did that work out? Second best bullpen in baseball gave up a 3R HR in a tie game top of the 9th to lose it.
keep pumping those regular season stats and reliever overuse. and continue to lose. Playoffs are a different game.
Wow. Familia gave up all 3 runs. How in the heavenly of fucks was Familia not pitching in the 9th there? How was Euhara preventing that from happening? An elite arm, one of the best in the game, gave up runs, and your blaming what exactly? That we shouldn't have used our elite option there?
I guess good players are always expected to perform Â
at every moment no matter what. Guess we shouldn't have signed Cespedes last year since he didnt do anything in the postseason either. Didn't work out for us. Oh well.
I'm talking about a pattern of overuse because of a lack of other options.
you think the bullpen is fine or will just magically sort itself out, I think the Mets will be forced to overpay at the deadline if they make no other moves, if options are there, and bullpen will be an Achilles heel in the playoffs.
While you spout "they're the 2nd best bullpen in baseball" as you say oh well let's hope the starters are healthy in 2018.
Who gives a F if they come up small in the post-season?
Cleveland and Chicago aren't in the WS without Chapman/Miller and anyone who would argue otherwise is a fool. I'm basically resigned to the fact that we're going to have to give up a prospect in our top 10 that we all really like to make a mid-season move.
The equally silly risk we're taking is a desperation move whenever Familia is suspended, as opposed to signing someone who can close like Ziegler (or Holland).
Forget Bruce, the biggest mistake Sandy made this offseason was QO'ing Walker. That $17M should have been invested in the BP if the budget is this tight.
We had two elite arms (both in the top 6 overall) ready to go in the postseason. Unless people are still obsessed with the Yankees going after three closers one time (and blowing it up) I really have no idea what people are wanting or expecting. Euhara's season last year was dime a dozen. We have a host of relievers that likely can replicate him for free. So are we taking about adding more "elite closers" or just solid depth guys. Major difference.
Regular season stats don't mater. Postseason is all that matters. I guess you need three elite closers minimum or you're screwed since that's what everyone is doing now (except they aren't)
I have zero issues with people wanting Blevins back (or another acceptable LOOGY) or another late inning option since Familia is missing a month. That's reasonable. I just don't think it's effecting much in the long run. It's more icing than anything. The difference between a Rosebloom or a Edgin (even if they are below average) and Blevins is likely a few runs for the entire season.
Last year they had 3 guys they felt comfortable with in 8th/9th Â
Reed, Blevins, Familia. Salas pitched well and was starting to become a 4th option, and they were actively trying to acquire that 4th option during July.
At the moment we have 2 of those guys under contract, with the guy who threw most of our 9th innings likely to be suspended for 10-20% of the season, and no replacements have been brought in. At the beginning of the offseason Sandy said they need a late game option and that's undeniably still true today. Robles or someone else could step up but that's a pretty big unknown. There's a reason they've shied away from him down the stretch both of the last 2 years.
in the pen to start the season. Not sure I agree with it but Im guessing he would surely be a late inning option while Familia is out. Might be a good way to conserve his innings some before sending him to Vegas to stretch out again. Or maybe he does so well they decide to keep him there.
Also, Edgin is out of options which is not something I considered before. Not a huge fan, but he was still was decent getting lefties out.
Pen would be
Familia
Reed
Wheeler
Smoker
Edgin
Robles
Sewald/Gilmartin/Goeddel/Lugo
Wheeler in the pen. Why limit Terry Collins like that? Either Wheeler will have strict usage limits (which hurts the team) or Wheeler coming off 2 missed seasons is going to be forced to be available multiple times per week, multiple days in a row (like any other reliever). Wheeler should open the season in AA.
Thor, DeGrom, Harvey, Matz, Gsellman would be my rotation and at some point in the season I would move to a 6 man rotation (IF all 6 were healthy at the same time), I'd still consider moving to a 6 with Lugo.
Wheeler in BP doesn't seem like a great fit considering Â
1. control was never his strong suit
2. year after TJS/2 years off usually has biggest impact on control
I'd be fine with 6 man rotation at any point this year (or any other inning saving measures needed for ANY of the SP's). Only hesitation with starting Lugo in the rotation is that he might be the best suited to grow into an important role in the BP. I've gotta say it's very disappointing we couldn't have at least rolled the dice on some combo of Holland, Uehara, Ziegler, Blevins, etc. what's the worst that would have happened? Dump them like Bastardo last year?
RE: Wheeler in BP doesn't seem like a great fit considering Â
1. control was never his strong suit
2. year after TJS/2 years off usually has biggest impact on control
I'd be fine with 6 man rotation at any point this year (or any other inning saving measures needed for ANY of the SP's). Only hesitation with starting Lugo in the rotation is that he might be the best suited to grow into an important role in the BP. I've gotta say it's very disappointing we couldn't have at least rolled the dice on some combo of Holland, Uehara, Ziegler, Blevins, etc. what's the worst that would have happened? Dump them like Bastardo last year?
I feel like if your biggest concern is Lugo has been so good out of the pen that you are concerned with moving him to the rotation... it's a damn good problem to have. Still hoping for a Blanton type. In all honesty, the only way Wheeler to the pen makes a lot of sense is if they have fully given up on him being a SP, otherwise he needs innings. He may or may not be successful out of the pen but he's not some guaranteed stud reliever given his command. If he's just cannon fodder at this point so be it. But if you have high hopes for him then opening in the pen is a bad move. Finishing the season in the pen to limit innings, zero issue with it.
are much less than Harvey. Just for reference, have many pitchers missed two full seasons and come back successfully?
I would be more shocked if Wheeler was a contributor than if he was hit with a career ending injury in spring training. Not trying to be negative, but just looking at the reality.
The guy I want to see get his act together is Montero. Realize it's beyond a long such as this point, but no one has been able to explain to me what happened.
Such good command in the minors - even up to Binghamton gone to crap in AAA and the majors. Warthen should make it his job to fix Montero.
I don't think he could have been any worse the past two years.
I really believe Vegas (and poor work ethic?) messed him up.
Fangraphs had a good scouting report on him after his 2015 spot start.
We (Mets fans) know better than most you can never have enough SP Â
so yeah, I'm sure Lugo will end up starting at least a handful of games this year. I'm just more worried about who closes when Familia's suspended after Reed has pitched the first 2 games of a series. Even if they're comfortable with Robles in that role, who is pitching the 8th? Who's coming in when there's a man on and Murphy/Harper are coming up? Those are the moments that win or lose games.
at being back-end depth/long man depth than Montero does and he throws harder so he at least is more interesting to me.
I dont know what's going to happen to Wheeler but Pj's point about not many hard throwing starters coming back after a 2 year lay off might be exactly why they are giving up on him as a starter (not saying they are/hypothetical).
Smoltz didn't have the best control when he started out either.
It will be interesting how it all plays out. If he looks healthy in Spring Training without much issue I keep him as a starter. But maybe medically he'll never be a 180-200 inning guy again. Who knows?
Dom Smith is #29 on Keith Law's minors list...here's the write-up
"I’ve written since Smith was an amateur that he has raw power, but in his first two seasons in full-season ball he hit just seven homers, as playing his home games in very pitcher-friendly parks led him to focus on going the other way. In 2016, he started pulling the ball more, and hit 14 homers, more than doubling his career total to date, along with 29 doubles to finish with a .302/.367/.457 line. Smith is an extraordinarily disciplined, calm hitter, striking out in just 13 percent of his plate appearances last year, showing an advanced two-strike approach and willingness to use the whole field. In addition to just generally pulling the ball more in 2016, Smith also got the ball in the air more often, which is critical to boosting his batting average since he’s a well below-average runner.
Smith is an above-average defender at first whose 70 arm is sort of wasted at the position, and has worked this offseason on improving his conditioning, which was a concern last year as he was playing at what I’ll politely call the top end of the acceptable range for his weight. There’s still untapped power here, but given the progress Smith has already made in games this year, I expect 20-plus homers from him this year or next along with the same high averages and doubles totals he posted in 2015 and 2016."
timing with Duda's FA. Lets hope Smith has a good year where there is no question he's ready and not some "okay" year where we have to either go with him or sign some turd for a year.
Ken Rosenthal ✔ @Ken_Rosenthal
Among FA relievers whom #Mets are considering, per sources: Sergio Romo and Joe Smith. And of course, Jerry Blevins. Looking at all of ‘em.
timing with Duda's FA. Lets hope Smith has a good year where there is no question he's ready and not some "okay" year where we have to either go with him or sign some turd for a year.
It's a shame we couldn't expose him to a little RF assuming he can finally keep the weight down. I know it wont happen but a 70 arm? Jesus.
I'd be happy with any of those guys to be honest Â
timing with Duda's FA. Lets hope Smith has a good year where there is no question he's ready and not some "okay" year where we have to either go with him or sign some turd for a year.
It's a shame we couldn't expose him to a little RF assuming he can finally keep the weight down. I know it wont happen but a 70 arm? Jesus.
He was considered a 1b only even dating back to HS so I don't think that would be an option. The last place you want to start a player is 1b unless there is no chance he can play another position so pretty clearly the Mets saw him as 1b only.
started and no relievers had gone anywhere the Mets expected to part ways with Blevins.
What was the reason for that?
I just assumed they wanted to upgrade. He was supposed to be a LOOGY and last year lefties hit better against him than righties and he had a pretty bad second half.
started and no relievers had gone anywhere the Mets expected to part ways with Blevins.
What was the reason for that?
I just assumed they wanted to upgrade. He was supposed to be a LOOGY and last year lefties hit better against him than righties and he had a pretty bad second half.
Wasn't at all about upgrading. Blevins was asking for 3 years 21 million when the off-season opened and the Mets weren't willing to go there. Dunn got 19 so Blevins ask didn't seem crazy at all at the time.
fact, Blevins was arguably the #2 best lefty non-closer available after Brett Cecil (who got big money), inferior Rzepczynski got 2 years 11. There really was no Blevins upgrade to be had. He's a very solid pitcher, Collins was forced to overuse him. Giving away Alvarez in hindsight looks like a poor decision.
fact, Blevins was arguably the #2 best lefty non-closer available after Brett Cecil (who got big money), inferior Rzepczynski got 2 years 11. There really was no Blevins upgrade to be had. He's a very solid pitcher, Collins was forced to overuse him. Giving away Alvarez in hindsight looks like a poor decision.
He was great 1st half and great against righties, not so much as a loogy and his second half was mediocre.
so it was just to save $$?
I don't get quibbling over 2-3M per year on short team deals like this.
fact, Blevins was arguably the #2 best lefty non-closer available after Brett Cecil (who got big money), inferior Rzepczynski got 2 years 11. There really was no Blevins upgrade to be had. He's a very solid pitcher, Collins was forced to overuse him. Giving away Alvarez in hindsight looks like a poor decision.
He was great 1st half and great against righties, not so much as a loogy and his second half was mediocre.
so it was just to save $$?
I don't get quibbling over 2-3M per year on short team deals like this.
100% about his contract not performance.
"The Mets really like Jerry Blevins and would prefer to have a bona fide veteran lefty specialist next season in addition to southpaws Josh Edgin and Josh Smoker. Still, team officials are expecting Blevins to get a sizable multiyear offer elsewhere, which may price him out of the Mets' spending appetite for a left-handed reliever. Blevins, 33, is eligible for free agency this offseason after earning $4 million in 2016. He produced a 2.79 ERA in 73 relief appearances. Lefty batters actually hit .255 against Blevins this past season, while righties hit .182.
but he made $4M last year, and the Mets won't give him $6-7 per to lock him up for 3 years, I'd even start at 3 years 16M or something like that.
That should be short money and if they're ok with his performance, it should be a trivial under the radar signing IMO.
I'm with you. Not looking to argue budget/spending stuff this season because it becomes tedious but yeah at the end of the day not bringing in/keeping decent guys now usually results in having to give up talent later.
but he made $4M last year, and the Mets won't give him $6-7 per to lock him up for 3 years, I'd even start at 3 years 16M or something like that.
That should be short money and if they're ok with his performance, it should be a trivial under the radar signing IMO.
It's about the years. Sandy doesn't want to go 3 years on a LOOGY. If Blevins wanted 6-7 million on a one year deal it would be done IMO. My guess is Sandy has one year with maybe an option on the table.... Possibly willing to go 2 MAX. Blevins is still asking for 3.
When spending on a specialist in the pen is argued all day. Yet a guy like Valbuena who would have been an ideal fit for the club signs short term and for rustrating.
When spending on a specialist in the pen is argued all day. Yet a guy like Valbuena who would have been an ideal fit for the club signs short term and for rustrating.
But I have a feeling some of these guys like Joe Smith might have to settle for minor league deals before long. Pitchers and Catchers are less than a few weeks away.
Im guessing you dont extend the QO to Walker then?
Valbuena can play 1b, 2b, 3b. He's a better player than Wilmer and would allow them to use Reyes all over, rest him more. For that price would have been perfect. 114 OPS+ last 3 seasons
Smith has heavy, heavy usage for his career. Back issues, 4.99 FIP this past season and about to turn 33. Minor league deal as an "extra" guy sure but if he's the one BP addition it's not a good one.
Im guessing you dont extend the QO to Walker then?
Valbuena can play 1b, 2b, 3b. He's a better player than Wilmer and would allow them to use Reyes all over, rest him more. For that price would have been perfect. 114 OPS+ last 3 seasons
Can he hit leadoff? I know Reyes isn't 25 year old Reyes, but I almost value his lead-off hitter ability more than his fielding.
Granderson had a better OBP, but reyes still has speed and puts pressure on pitchers.
Im guessing you dont extend the QO to Walker then?
Valbuena can play 1b, 2b, 3b. He's a better player than Wilmer and would allow them to use Reyes all over, rest him more. For that price would have been perfect. 114 OPS+ last 3 seasons
I guess but Wilmer is free and much better against lefties. Reyes is more the super sub currently with Flores the 1B power bat that can platoon with Duda. At least in my eyes. If Wright went down then TJ Rivera would leapfrog Flores as next in line for the jack of all trades type. I think if we traded Flores we would immediately be looking for a lefty masher with pop for the bench. I like Flores in his current role.
Im guessing you dont extend the QO to Walker then?
Valbuena can play 1b, 2b, 3b. He's a better player than Wilmer and would allow them to use Reyes all over, rest him more. For that price would have been perfect. 114 OPS+ last 3 seasons
Can he hit leadoff? I know Reyes isn't 25 year old Reyes, but I almost value his lead-off hitter ability more than his fielding.
Granderson had a better OBP, but reyes still has speed and puts pressure on pitchers.
Reyes isn't even going to be in the lineup when Wright is so they are going to have to find an alternate leadoff hitter for a good portion of the season. We aren't going to see 110 games started by Jose Reyes unless David Wright is kaput.
The Blue Jays are also keeping in touch with Blevins, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. Toronto’s search for a southpaw reliever has also led it to consider Craig Breslow, per the report. The team was among those to check out his new mechanics recently.
(wright on the field for 50+ games). If you had to guess how many games do you expect Wright, Duda, and Walker to be together in the infield? Three significant back/neck issues of the 4 prospective infield starters.
Reyes is planning to get time in the OF this Spring too, which might make sense for a number of reasons, keeps his leadoff bat and probably improves OF D even if at 33 or whatever he is, he hasn't ever played OF. He'd be probably better than Bruce.
See what happens with Bruce, he's kind of the keystone to the planning not to rehash yesterdays thread.
Breslow is 36 years old and basically sucks for his career. ST invite? Sure who cares but lowering his arm slot means very little. I'm sure these older guys tinker with trying these things all the time. Jason Marquis is attempting a comeback as well...
if we offered him a major league contract. I'd rather see what Edgin could do another year post surgery. A major league contract means Edgin gets exposed to waivers most likely. Wouldn't make sense.
But with our current construction I could totally see teams wanting to go to a tough lefty late in the game with Duda, Granderson, Bruce/Conforto. Having Flores and his ridiculous wRC+ of 192 sitting on the bench ready to pinch hit might make teams think twice.
I'd look into dealing them some AAA prospects to get Joe Kelly.
especially since their farm took a hit with the Sale and Thornburg trades.
Kelly has been relegated to the BP and is like starter #7 or 8 and I might even see what the Mets scouts thought of Henry Ownes and pursue him. I think Owens gets bumped to Pawtucket.
long liked Kelly. I'm surprised he hasn't been better than he's been. Owens control is a major issue. I doubt the Sox would give him away at a price that made sense to the Mets. He's cheap and team controlled so there is no incentive to move him.
RE: Bring back the best young pitcher in baseball! Â
I'm so glad I'm not the only one who remembers that. I made a comment to Joe about it last year when he started posting again and he didn't even remember it.
long liked Kelly. I'm surprised he hasn't been better than he's been. Owens control is a major issue. I doubt the Sox would give him away at a price that made sense to the Mets. He's cheap and team controlled so there is no incentive to move him.
Agree on both. Neither would be cheap, but Kelly's $3M, plus impending arbitration and logjam might be enough to move him.
Owens would be a project, I just think the Sox would move him for a prospect seeing how the odds are Owens ceiling is now probably a middle reliever/LOOGY (if he can figrue out how to get lefties out)/AAAA pitcher. And the Mets would only be interested IMO if Warthen thinks he can correct his control.
Plus the Sox now have Price (opt out not withstanding) Sale and Porcello locked up long-ish term and youngster Eduardo Rodriguez under team control as well as veteran knuckleballer Steven Wright.
and I think the Mets decide from there. I doubt he goes to the pen if he's fully healthy and feel good, but I guess it depends on how he feels in ST, his velocity and his stuff.
I don't know any medical reason he'd be in the pen.
So the more questions, the more conversations like this post - the increasing odds of a successful comeback.
So the more questions, the more conversations like this post - the increasing odds of a successful comeback.
So asking questions and discussing Harvey in an online forum increases the odds of his comeback?
?
That's Wheeler. I don't like that plan either. To me (assuming everyone else is healthy) I have Wheeler getting innings in AA, Gsellman in the rotation.
What is your point? He has failed to be available to pitch at the end of 3 out of the last 4 seasons.
I dont see him working out a deal with the Mets before he hits free agency and i can't see the Mets ponying up the bucks to keep him once he's free to negotiate with other teams
Link - ( New Window )
Harvey claimed he was heavier by design so while it's nice to see him in shape it really doesn't do much for me in terms of how he will pitch. Remember how many times Wheeler said he felt great, was coming along great, would be back... and then... let's see how he actually looks.
Hi Dan. Do you have a link to that podcast? I'd like to give it a listen. Thanks in advance.
Quote:
did a podcast regarding the Mets system which was largely positive. They noted the reason for Cecchini's throwing problems are his release point/way he throws and not something that is likely correctable. They viewed Cecchini as a 50/second division regular in terms of upside at 2b (none viewed him as a viable SS). They noted he likely will be hurt by the shift to more power at 2b. Overall comments about the system were very good. They think the Mets have a decent window (depending on the health of the SP).
Hi Dan. Do you have a link to that podcast? I'd like to give it a listen. Thanks in advance.
Well worth the listen
Link - ( New Window )
com'on lol, really?
Quote:
that how he looks in spring training is all that matters... Harvey did recently say that he feels great and now has full feeling in his hand again which is good. There has also been pictures that have surfaced that show he's in great shape and a tad thinner. Grain of salt but positive nonetheless. Here's a little blurb. Link - ( New Window )
Harvey claimed he was heavier by design so while it's nice to see him in shape it really doesn't do much for me in terms of how he will pitch. Remember how many times Wheeler said he felt great, was coming along great, would be back... and then... let's see how he actually looks.
Im more encouraged that he can actually feel his fingers again but again... Im agreeing with you.
Not necessarily his fault.
He comes back, wins 5 in a row, we trade him for a closer.
Not necessarily his fault.
He comes back, wins 5 in a row, we trade him for a closer.
Huh?
The start of his career was outstanding. When he went down and needed TJ, he responded by coming back and having one of the best post-TJ years ever
He was clearly not pitching at 100% last year.
Fully healthy Matt Harvey may not ever exist from this point forward, but if it did.. I would be just as comfortable with him on the mound as any pitcher on this team.
Why?
He has not done anything to make me think he will have another issue. He has had 2 bad injuries in 4 years.
I believe this will end badly and we will be left with what could have been
Couldn't live up to the pedestal he was thrust upon.
He's no Dwight Gooden.
Shouldn't have been the #1 when DeGrom and Syndergard were clearly better.
As I mentioned, not necessarily his fault but he appeared to be living the life without the production.
We're gonna need a closer, suspension aside, Familia's spirit has been broken. I wouldn't trust him anymore fan I trusted Doug Sisk and Doug Sisk is my most hated Met ever.
Harvey's a stud, just not as aloft as he's been presented, let's get something for him before he breaks down again.
If you take last season out of the equation since Harvey was clearly not right when he was pitching, these are his career numbers:
427 IP, 2.53 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 1.000 WHIP, 9.5 k/9
Those are ridiculously good numbers and about 190 of those innings include a first season back from TJ surgery. Good luck finding pitchers who had a better first year back than he did in 2015.
In 2013 he had the lowest FIP in all of baseball (2.01)
Like I said, Matt may never be the same pitcher... but the pitcher he was before last season was as good as anyone on this staff. Including Syndergaard and deGrom.
What's my clear, noticeable bias?
”Gsellman was a crafty, command right-hander until mid-2016, when his velocity started to climb rapidly, so that when he reached the majors in August, he was pitching at 92-96 mph. Gsellman is a sinkerballer by trade, complemented with the slightly above average curveball he uses as a put-away pitch as well as an average changeup — and, of course, if Dan Warthen has laid hands on a guy, he probably has a decent slider too.”
Dodgers looking at Blevins for a one-year deal right? Why can't the Mets just get in on that? They've done almost nothing since retaining Cespedes.
Amazing that fucking Jay Bruce is going to hurt our bullpen by us having to pay his bloated salary (which was an option that could've easily been declined!) and maybe continue to hurt us by taking ABs away from better OFs during the season. I still cross fingers that Mets can deal him but looking at his performance over the past few years, this turn of events shouldn't surprise anyone.
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Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that six teams are showing interest in Fernando Salas.
Dodgers looking at Blevins for a one-year deal right? Why can't the Mets just get in on that? They've done almost nothing since retaining Cespedes.
Amazing that fucking Jay Bruce is going to hurt our bullpen by us having to pay his bloated salary (which was an option that could've easily been declined!) and maybe continue to hurt us by taking ABs away from better OFs during the season. I still cross fingers that Mets can deal him but looking at his performance over the past few years, this turn of events shouldn't surprise anyone.
Yeah KR says the Dodgers are only offering relievers 1 year deals as of right now... problem is... the Dodgers more likely than not will offer a higher AAV than the Mets would. They don't seem to have a budget. Forsythe was a nice little add (high price no doubt).
The Mets had the number 2 bullpen in all of baseball last year highlighted by having 2 of the top 6 relievers in the game in it's back-end. April suspension aside, we will still have that. I'm actually excited to see what guys like Smoker and Sewald can do under Warthen and if Robles can finally take a step forward. It will be fine and you can always add a Salas type at the deadline again.
2.) First base depth (Smith should be in AAA but at least initially he wouldn't be able to step in). Don't want another Loney situation if Duda goes down. I guess as long as Bruce is around we would have a few options there.
3.) Middle bullpen relief/Loogy
2.) First base depth (Smith should be in AAA but at least initially he wouldn't be able to step in). Don't want another Loney situation if Duda goes down. I guess as long as Bruce is around we would have a few options there.
3.) Middle bullpen relief/Loogy
I'm guessing at the moment that Wilmer is the primary backup 1b. AAA Monell, Krauss and Campbell are all gone so as you said there is nothing really at AAA at 1b for the first half of the season (Rivera has some 1b experience so he'd probably get some time there) + they claim Conforto will get some ST reps there.
Catcher question mark is obviously an issue but there were no obvious external solutions this offseason so we need to hope TDA is ready to go.
Bullpen still has some solutions and I'd like to see them add to the depth. Bullpen was a relative strength last year, but two guys who pitched well out of that pen left and wern't (yet) replaced.
The other big question mark (or just flat out weakness) is the team's defense as a whole, especially in the OF. None of our best 3 OFs is a CF, and while Granderson has been OK out there, it's asking a lot for him to be full-time CF for a season. TDA's struggles throwing guys out are an issue. Wright is obviously a question mark. Cabrera, Walker and Duda are OK but not really "good" either. Same for backups Rivera and Flores. Our only "plus" defender is probably Cespedes.
I'm confident that the team can overcome the defense and contend but we'll want as strong and deep a bullpen as possible, especially with 4 of our top 6 starters coming off or recovery from offseason surgery.
Catcher question mark is obviously an issue but there were no obvious external solutions this offseason so we need to hope TDA is ready to go.
Bullpen still has some solutions and I'd like to see them add to the depth. Bullpen was a relative strength last year, but two guys who pitched well out of that pen left and wern't (yet) replaced.
The other big question mark (or just flat out weakness) is the team's defense as a whole, especially in the OF. None of our best 3 OFs is a CF, and while Granderson has been OK out there, it's asking a lot for him to be full-time CF for a season. TDA's struggles throwing guys out are an issue. Wright is obviously a question mark. Cabrera, Walker and Duda are OK but not really "good" either. Same for backups Rivera and Flores. Our only "plus" defender is probably Cespedes.
I'm confident that the team can overcome the defense and contend but we'll want as strong and deep a bullpen as possible, especially with 4 of our top 6 starters coming off or recovery from offseason surgery.
Just to clarify, Cespedes is only a "plus" as a corner OF. Also, the OF gets worse if the butcher/Bruce has to play meaningful time. Hopefully Lagares and Nimmo have good camps and are ready to go because we'll want their athleticism out there. I'm actually optimistic that Lagares can sort of platoon a bit with Grandy (and Conforto sometimes) versus lefties and be an asset while taking some starts in CF. I think we'll still like that Lagares contract when it's all said and done despite it looking bad right now.
there was something like 5 catchers above replacement level in the league that qualified.
Plus TDA was so bad, he can't really be worse. Catcher is what it is at this point.
The only thing I'm really worried about is health of the starting pitching and nothing the Mets can probably do about that besides worry and bullpen.
And I don't think there's anything meaningful they can do about that either at this point.
and I'm not going to rehash my bullpen concerns. We all saw the games and know how the Mets lost - the World Series games and the wild card.
there was something like 5 catchers above replacement level in the league that qualified.
Plus TDA was so bad, he can't really be worse. Catcher is what it is at this point.
The only thing I'm really worried about is health of the starting pitching and nothing the Mets can probably do about that besides worry and bullpen.
And I don't think there's anything meaningful they can do about that either at this point.
and I'm not going to rehash my bullpen concerns. We all saw the games and know how the Mets lost - the World Series games and the wild card.
That's a bit misleading to be honest. Catchers sit more than other positions so less will qualify. If you go with 400+ PA's 13 catchers were worth at least 1.7 fWAR and again WAR is a counting stat so you sit 30-40-50 games it's going to be very tough to put up the same # as a guy playing 150 games. That's not to say there were excellent options out there but it's potentially a real issue given how bad/injured TDA has been and how bad Plawecki has been. Potentially a total black hole.
Dunn, Gsellman, Dom Smith and Rosario on Law's top 100. Figure 30 teams/100 prospects so the average team will have a little more than 3 (teams like the Yankees will likely have 6-7).
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mainly because of relativity. It's a weak position league-wide.
there was something like 5 catchers above replacement level in the league that qualified.
Plus TDA was so bad, he can't really be worse. Catcher is what it is at this point.
The only thing I'm really worried about is health of the starting pitching and nothing the Mets can probably do about that besides worry and bullpen.
And I don't think there's anything meaningful they can do about that either at this point.
and I'm not going to rehash my bullpen concerns. We all saw the games and know how the Mets lost - the World Series games and the wild card.
That's a bit misleading to be honest. Catchers sit more than other positions so less will qualify. If you go with 400+ PA's 13 catchers were worth at least 1.7 fWAR and again WAR is a counting stat so you sit 30-40-50 games it's going to be very tough to put up the same # as a guy playing 150 games. That's not to say there were excellent options out there but it's potentially a real issue given how bad/injured TDA has been and how bad Plawecki has been. Potentially a total black hole.
Either way, misleading or not, I think it's fair to say there are not a lot of quality big league catchers. and if that's your black hole, oh well.
But more to my point, what are the Mets going to do about it now? There is almost literally nothing they can do about the catcher position at this point.
Need to hope TDA reverts back to what people expected of him, if he's close to that at least the problem is solved until he's hurt.
The main concerns I have with the Mets are health of the starting pitchers and the bullpen.
Catcher is probably 5th or 6th on my list.
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"living the life" comment. People see what they want to see and clearly, have a noticeable bias.
What's my clear, noticeable bias?
That's what I thought.
If I have a Star Wars question I'll ask Z but until you have at least 50 years in as a Met fan, kindly refrain from butting into my conversations, you're not qualified.
Even someone like Uehara one year 6M would have made me feel a little better.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
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the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
Remember... they are counting on
Jose Reyes (34 in June, injury prone)
David Wright (nuff said)
Walker (coming off back surgery)
Duda (coming off back surgery/missed season)
TDA (injury prone + awful in 2016 with the alternatives being awful for his career so far Plawecki and generally crappy bat Rene Rivera)
Lagares (injury prone, just got hurt again)
Cespedes (whom I love but... injury prone)
Granderson (36 in March)
Conforto (absolutely awful in 2016)
Sure the offense could be better than average but there are so many ?? that it's really hard for me to have much confidence offensively. I really have to disagree with Lagares being a "nice option" offensively. The guy has posted a 79 and 84 wRC+ the past 2 seasons. The glove was incredible his first season but his bat is overall a net negative
Losing Blevins is going to be a very big loss, the guy got big outs regularly against Harper, Freeman, Murphy. A loogy isn't a big deal until the game is close and 1 of those guys is coming to the plate.
Ziegler/Uehara (or Thornburg via trade) would have been solid additions at their respective price tags.
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the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
I agree re: the offense. While built similarly to last year's team, and likely to still be pretty streaky, this year's has so much more depth built up. I expect the productivity to be much closer to what we saw in April last year vs. May/June.
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
Well they get Wright back. LOL, Ok I hate having fun at the captain's expense, but whatever, sometimes have to laugh.
Seriously though I agree with you.
From an optimistic standpoint though you can look at:
Duda returning
TDA improving
Conforto improving
Reyes full season (or however much be plays) at leadoff (though not like he's a portrait of health)
Walker returning
to think the Mets offense could/should be better than last year if they can escape the dreaded injury bug.
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to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
Excellent his first year, since then he's more "good". 2015+2016 he's been worth 4 DRS, 2014 he was worth 6, 2013 he was worth a pretty remarkable +14. Past 2 seasons CF with 1000 or more innings in CF he ranks 13th.
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has the Mets the #18 offensive team in baseball in 2016, 16th in wRC+, 17th in wOBA. I think my depiction of an average offense is more than fair. It's not like they have made any additions. Hopefully healthy Duda makes an impact and/or TDA is solid.
Well they get Wright back. LOL, Ok I hate having fun at the captain's expense, but whatever, sometimes have to laugh.
Seriously though I agree with you.
From an optimistic standpoint though you can look at:
Duda returning
TDA improving
Conforto improving
Reyes full season (or however much be plays) at leadoff (though not like he's a portrait of health)
Walker returning
to think the Mets offense could/should be better than last year if they can escape the dreaded injury bug.
Sure but weighing positive/pessimistic outlooks and "guessing" somewhere in between suggests the offense is likely closer to average than a really strong offensive club. Obviously if TDA has a big year, or Conforto bounces back etc things can change. I'm not counting on Wright for much personally.
and yeah, I'm not counting on Wright for anything. But would be a nice bonus to get production from him, though he's said he doesn't want to be a "feel good story" which is nice, since I don't think he will be.
It's 100% fair to call last year's offense average, but there are many reasons to expect this year's offense to be better than last year's.
1. Conforto (or Bruce if he's still here?) - neither would need to be an allstar to be better than Conforto was in May/June.
2. Catcher - a veteran backup should have been brought in, but it would be hard for anyone to do less than TDA did last year. He had 15 RBI's and 11 XBH.
3. Injuries - obviously Duda should upgrade 1B production. Cespedes playing LF and not CF will hopefully keep him off the DL. I don't expect anything at all from Wright and I'm not sure what Walker will be coming off the back injury but Reyes/Rivera/Cecchini/Flores are all good depth options.
Yea, this could be awkward. Almost like the Victor Cruz situation was for NYG this year but would be an even bigger microscope.
That's where Terry Collins worries me a little. How much rope does he give Wright?
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In comment 13338283 DanMetroMan said:
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to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
Excellent his first year, since then he's more "good". 2015+2016 he's been worth 4 DRS, 2014 he was worth 6, 2013 he was worth a pretty remarkable +14. Past 2 seasons CF with 1000 or more innings in CF he ranks 13th.
In his limited CF time last year his OOZ plays and UZR were basically back to 2014 levels (he only had 1 assist though). He actually made an even higher % of remote chance plays (1-10%). He's still a very good defender, the bigger issue is that he gets himself injured a lot.
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always root for Wright but it does put fans in a weird position IF he's not hitting. I want to win games, I don't really care about Wright and some feel good story. Give him a chance to help the team but don't obsess over the fact he's the captain or a good dude.
That's where Terry Collins worries me a little. How much rope does he give Wright?
That will be Collin's first big challenge of the season. They can't allow him to strike out every other at bat, in front of Cespedes no less, with good options wasting away on the bench.
If the Mets can get through spring training with a healthy starting 6 (pitchers) I'll be thrilled. If they have 5 of them still healthy in September/October I'll be even more thrilled.
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In comment 13337583 ZGiants98 said:
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"living the life" comment. People see what they want to see and clearly, have a noticeable bias.
What's my clear, noticeable bias?
That's what I thought.
If I have a Star Wars question I'll ask Z but until you have at least 50 years in as a Met fan, kindly refrain from butting into my conversations, you're not qualified.
Jesus Christ man. It was pretty obvious you're one of those "Harvey cared too much about the limelight" people based on your comment. I personally don't share that belief and I doubt Arc does either. You seriously want to go rounds over this?
Maybe it's a personal choice but I cant combine leagues when discussing team offense when the other league gets to have an extra hitter in their lineup. Mets finished 6th in wRC+ and 6th in WAR last year offensively in the NL. That's without Duda for most of the year, TDA either out or terrible, Conforto terrible or in AAA with no replacement until Bruce... Walker, Cabrera, and Cespedes all missing significant stretches, no Reyes for the first 4 months, no AAA depth ready until the second half.
I just think we are much better situated this time around. I think we are a comfortably a top 5 NL offense (but I have said that the last 3 seasons).
Which is what they should do. Conforto shouldn't rot on the bench. Id be fine with Kelly and Lagares as my backups and Nimmo and Conforto in Vegas playing every day but obviously both would leapfrog Kelly if a major injury happened immediately.
Smoker HIMSELF said he struggled with lefties and needs to improve his slider.
As bad as Conforto was he still out produced Bruce (in fWar) with far less at bats. If you want to say that Conforto's production was weighted toward the beginning of the season, well... hopefully you realize how bad Bruce was during his time with the Mets.
As bad as Conforto was he still out produced Bruce (in fWar) with far less at bats. If you want to say that Conforto's production was weighted toward the beginning of the season, well... hopefully you realize how bad Bruce was during his time with the Mets.
You honestly think Jay Bruce and his 13 million are going to sit on the bench on a team managed by Terry Collins? Conforto was just as bad/even worse than Bruce (and I say that as someone who badly wanted Bruce dumped) but there is a close to 0% chance Bruce is behind Conforto on the depth chart if hes here.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
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at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
He looks the part and throws hard. He admitted he had to work on it so that's a good sign vs. simply saying he was unlucky or something. I'd still much prefer Blevins with Smoker as insurance however. In fact I'd like both relievers the Dodgers want.. Blanton and Blevins. Gimme both.
All that said, what I think they should do and what I want are two different things. I think Conforto's floor is Bruce's 2016 in 2017 and he doesn't have anything left to prove in Vegas but there's nothing we can do with the roster jam at the moment.
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In comment 13338393 DanMetroMan said:
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at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
He looks the part and throws hard. He admitted he had to work on it so that's a good sign vs. simply saying he was unlucky or something. I'd still much prefer Blevins with Smoker as insurance however. In fact I'd like both relievers the Dodgers want.. Blanton and Blevins. Gimme both.
Id be on board with that. I still think a few relievers fall through the cracks late in the off season and Sandy gets a bargain or two.
Far, far more realistic than Conlon. Lefties hit .141 against him in AA, 24.1 innings 30 k's. I like Conlon as a potential backend MLB SP but...34.2 innings vs. lefties with 13 k's means a TON of balls in play in a LOOGY role...good loogy's miss bats vs. lefties.
With regard to the offense, I thought the Mets were much higher from August 1st on (i.e. When ceapedes and Reyes were in lineup together for fist time). Much like two seasons ago I think looking at the offensive numbers from may is not necessarily fair for what to expect this upcoming years.
With that said, Im not doom and gloom going into the season. It's been expected for virtully the entire offseason that Bruce would have to start in RF on opening day. His value can only go up trade wise. COnforto could only benefit from starting the season in LV and getting into a groove.
As painful as it will be for most to admit, resigning Ces might have been the mistake.
With regard to the offense, I thought the Mets were much higher from August 1st on (i.e. When ceapedes and Reyes were in lineup together for fist time). Much like two seasons ago I think looking at the offensive numbers from may is not necessarily fair for what to expect this upcoming years.
I dont believe this to be true at all. There is no way we couldnt add a middle reliever or two and worry about trading Bruce later. People always think there is some exact amount in a safe and once its spent its spent or you have to clear salary to bring more on. Its not the case. Sandy has said so a million times. Even used analogy's such as : "Its like a bathtub... the water goes up and it goes down... It's fluid!" Sandy also sends a lot of smoke likely to keep prices down. If teams/players think we cant spend over X, they know where they stand and cant ask for the moon. When it comes to Blevins its all about the years. Sandy doesn't think a Loogy is worth locking into a 3 year deal. I say good.
With that said, Im not doom and gloom going into the season. It's been expected for virtully the entire offseason that Bruce would have to start in RF on opening day. His value can only go up trade wise. COnforto could only benefit from starting the season in LV and getting into a groove.
As painful as it will be for most to admit, resigning Ces might have been the mistake.
Kind of an odd statement but that's insider stuff that your privy to that only confuses everyone probably. I too heard the Mets had bigger plans early in the offseason and nothing materialized but obviously what you're saying doesn't make much sense to most IMO.
1. He acknowledged payroll is higher than they like, or in Sandy's words "payroll is an issue"
2. He doesn't like the roster right now in terms of playing time flexibility. I take that to me too many he doesn't see a clean way to get everyone on the roster the right amount of PT (IMO too many LH OFers and too many MI's), but he didn't elaborate from what I read.
Sandy has acknowledge the bullpen is the main "un-finished" unit (my word) and he's said they're looking both internally and externally to finish it (in terms of openind day roster).
I'll wait and see the team the Mets field on April 3 against the Braves and I'm going to say 75% chance or more it's different than the one today.
On another topic the Mets schedule is weird, but I think primed for a good start.
they open with 16 games against the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins and 26 of their first 32 games are against that trio (Nats sandwiched in there for 6 too)
What I find somewhat weird is they don't play outside the NL East until May 8.
His season ended in mid-August after just nine starts and 52 innings due to back soreness, but before that, he showed at least mid-rotation potential, between the out pitch in the curveball and the ability to throw everything for strikes. This will be a big year for him developmentally, as he’ll be asked to throw most of a full season, and his stuff alone should dominate low-A hitters. His potential to turn into even a solid No. 3 starter would be an enormous success story for a team’s fifth-round pick."
The real issue right now is the bullpen. We really have done nothing to strengthen it and between Familia likely being suspended 30 games or so and Blevins not being back (as of yet at least) I have pretty legitimate concerns about the overall depth back there.
I also think it's a lot to expect Reed to replicate his 2016. Chances are he regresses at least slightly.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
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Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
He's been below 110 wRC 2 of the past 3 years, so how is he a "lock" to be 110-115 wRC? I'm not saying he has no chance at hitting in that range, just not sure why you think he's a "lock."
Also, these types of players, slightly above average hitters but useless in the field, do sort of grow on trees. Look at how little money these types of guys got on the open market this offseason. Sandy clearly tried to dump Bruce and no one wanted him for that salary (I wasn't surprised, but I believe you repeated 100X how he'd easily be tradeable). There's not a chance in hell Bruce would even get $10M on the open market if he was an FA.
It was a tactical error by Sandy to pick up the option. It doubled down on the error that he made by trading for this bum. Hopefully he doesn't triple down on the error and give Conforto's ABs to Bruce.
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In comment 13338892 ZGiants98 said:
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Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
There is a 0% chance Lindsay is a top 60 prospect in baseball already. 2 professional seasons he's managed to play 72 games hitting 5 homers with 6 steals. In fairness, largely due to his injuries but he was a 2nd round pick so it's not as if he was viewed as some monster prospect (and I say that as someone who really likes him). Sickels named him the #7 prospect in the Mets system last week.
Yeah. I just think the market is very saturated this year. Bautista, Encarnacion, Trumbo... ect. Most are signing for much less than was expected and very late in the offseason. Its just one of those years. I believe they will come calling once injuries hit in the season and things start to get shook up a bit. I also know Sandy is asking for TWO legit prospects so it's not like they just "dont want him". We dont really know whats going on behind the scenes.
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In comment 13338906 DanMetroMan said:
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In comment 13338892 ZGiants98 said:
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Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
There is a 0% chance Lindsay is a top 60 prospect in baseball already. 2 professional seasons he's managed to play 72 games hitting 5 homers with 6 steals. In fairness, largely due to his injuries but he was a 2nd round pick so it's not as if he was viewed as some monster prospect (and I say that as someone who really likes him). Sickels named him the #7 prospect in the Mets system last week.
Dude. Im not looking to argue. lol. Law seemed pretty high on him in one of his last discussions I thought. I wouldnt have him 60.
Michael Conorto 113wRC+
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
Meh. They have openly shopped Bruce around the league. This "announcement" doesn't change anything. Every single writer has mentioned the Mets talking Bruce with multiple teams, it's not as if teams were hot for him and now "woah they might keep him!".
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He's probably a lock for 25-34 HR, 100 RBIs.... wRC+ 110-115. Those guys dont grow on trees and I could care less about his WAR as a corner OF. His defensive ratings (not that it matters anyway) isn't even consistent. He turned in some pretty good defensive years in the last 5-6 here and there. The one thing I'll never understand is why people think the Mets are out looking to clear his salary. They didn't HAVE to pick up his option. They purposely spent 13 million to bring him back. Sandy will recoup that value via trade or he will keep him. He was never going to "shed" him.
He's been below 110 wRC 2 of the past 3 years, so how is he a "lock" to be 110-115 wRC? I'm not saying he has no chance at hitting in that range, just not sure why you think he's a "lock."
Also, these types of players, slightly above average hitters but useless in the field, do sort of grow on trees. Look at how little money these types of guys got on the open market this offseason. Sandy clearly tried to dump Bruce and no one wanted him for that salary (I wasn't surprised, but I believe you repeated 100X how he'd easily be tradeable). There's not a chance in hell Bruce would even get $10M on the open market if he was an FA.
It was a tactical error by Sandy to pick up the option. It doubled down on the error that he made by trading for this bum. Hopefully he doesn't triple down on the error and give Conforto's ABs to Bruce.
We will see if it was an error or not. The only way to prove that would be for him to get zero return, keep him all year, and Bruce have a shitty year. The chances of all of that happening are slim IMO. Bruce was coming off some injuries and had two down years in 14/15. His last 5 healthy years were 124, 119, 120, 117, 111. I expect him in that range if healthy, even if its the low end. He's only 29.
Rosario comes in at #3 at SS (Torres #1)
Michael Conorto 113wRC+
Yes and Steamer take 3 year averages and 14/15 were Bruce's two worst years ever and he was coming off injuries. I do think Conforto's floor is Bruce but Bruce is more proven a sure thing. Im only guessing with Conforto.
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market heats up now that Sandy has said he's keeping him.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
Meh. They have openly shopped Bruce around the league. This "announcement" doesn't change anything. Every single writer has mentioned the Mets talking Bruce with multiple teams, it's not as if teams were hot for him and now "woah they might keep him!".
Just trying to find a positive spin.
Sometimes the off-the-market house is more coveted than one you're actively shopping.
Plus there will be spring training injuries, just hopefully not to the Mets this year. Someone will need Bruce before the Spring ends.
I don't believe Sandy intends to go into the season with this roster (not just BP, position players too).
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
First of all, I never said he "wanted to keep him". I was simply saying he knew what he was doing. If he now simply wanted to shed his salary (Ive seen this suggested) he would have simply never picked up the option and went with Conforto from the beginning. He believed 13 million was a value deal for Bruce and I agree with him. I do agree with aspects of your point though. We all know this is another negotiating ploy to make it seem like he is no longer available. Sandy will still trade Bruce if he gets a suitable return obviously.
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
+10. The issue is being unwilling/unable to add salary before moving Bruce's salary (ZGiants if you want to argue this point I'm just not interested in dissecting Sandy's quotes. He made clear Bruce's salary impacted going after more expensive reliever options, if you disagree that is fine).
+1
I'd hate to trade him, but if an 8th inning guy with closing experience and a prospect were the return it might be worth it.
Not sure what value Conforto has after last seasons debacle.
I'd hate to trade him, but if an 8th inning guy with closing experience and a prospect were the return it might be worth it.
Not sure what value Conforto has after last seasons debacle.
You won't get fair value. Teams will be looking to buy low on his upside.
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on Bruce wasn't a tactical error. Not being willing and or able to add $6M for Uehara (for example) in case he can't unload Bruce was the tactical error.
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
+10. The issue is being unwilling/unable to add salary before moving Bruce's salary (ZGiants if you want to argue this point I'm just not interested in dissecting Sandy's quotes. He made clear Bruce's salary impacted going after more expensive reliever options, if you disagree that is fine).
That's fine. Proof will be in the pudding. If he signs a Blevins and a Salas with Bruce still on the roster before opening day we'll know there was in fact more money and it was smoke.
I dont think Robles was very good last year personally. 3.48 ERA to match a 3.56 FIP. He was a 1FWAR player. Uehara 3.45 to match a 3.51 with a 0.6 fWAR. Not a difference maker IMO and he's 42.
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actually had a slightly lower FIP than Robles and I think most people would have been happy with adding a "second Robles" with a track record of being much better than that vs. what they have done so far. Kind of strange statement... you rave about Robles, if the Mets signed his twin brother with the exact same numbers you'd be raving about the move...
I dont think Robles was very good last year personally. 3.48 ERA to match a 3.56 FIP. He was a 1FWAR player. Uehara 3.45 to match a 3.51 with a 0.6 fWAR. Not a difference maker IMO and he's 42.
I'm already on record stating BBI overrates Robles thanks to his velocity. The Mets have twice relegated Robles to basically a non-factor during pennant races. He may improve (it's certainly possible) but he's an unreliable hard thrower at this point. I think they have internal options who at worst could be as good as him at some point.
I still like him as a middle reliever and think he can be a little better. He also has some value in that he's one of those guys who can throw multiple innings when we need someone to eat them up.
Like I said before, though.. I still have legit concerns about the pen.
I'd make it more an emphasis than some people.
Familia 3 run HR to what was his name on SF? a career journeyman Gillespie? was sickening.
With him suspended, who knows how Reed fares in his absence or how Familia fares when he comes back.
He (Familia) is starting to feel a lot like Armando Benitez.
And Familia was great in the PO's until the WS, but overuse I think did him in.
And it was obvious that Collins felt he didn't have many (any?) other trustworthy options in 2015.
Adding Uehara isn't adding Mariano Rivers, but it's adding another proven bullpen arm.
if the Mets can give Alejandro de Aza 6M I think Uehara, even if he's a Robles clone, is worth it, for nothing less than keeping other guys fresh and not tossing BP, plus he's got good playoff experience.
And Uehara is an example. Benoit, and others were out there too.
Quick pitching Gordon in game 1 was 100% his fault. Those other games were tough to put on him, though.
I do completely agree that the bullpen needs more help. That would be my absolute BIGGEST focus right now. The starters and the hitters I am okay with even though we're going to be logjammed in a few spots offensively. That'll shake itself out. We have a good enough collection of bats, IMO.
Pen has to be better.
IMO, a short suspension might not be the worst thing for Familia. I feel like he was worked pretty hard last year with a lot of his innings being 25+ pitch innings. I'd like to see him try and get that BB/9 closer to 2 (instead of last year's 3.59) and hopefully he can get the K/9 over 10.
Quick pitching Gordon in game 1 was 100% his fault. Those other games were tough to put on him, though.
I do completely agree that the bullpen needs more help. That would be my absolute BIGGEST focus right now. The starters and the hitters I am okay with even though we're going to be logjammed in a few spots offensively. That'll shake itself out. We have a good enough collection of bats, IMO.
Pen has to be better.
Benitez was ridiculous in the 1999 playoffs. 9 IP, 5H, 3BB 11K's until... he had to be yanked from game 6 vs the Braves. Great until crunch time. Not saying that game was his fault, the starter for the Mets (Leiter) didn't get an out.
Benitez 2000 WS was very similar to Familia 2015 WS.
I think these guys the more they're exposed to a team or when they face a team that is patient at the plate and makes you throw strikes (like the 2000 Yankees or 2015 Royals) the less effective they get.
I have zero issue comparing Familia to Benitez. They remind me of each other. And both were/are prolific closers. Just need more mental strength and their managers need(ed) other reliable options.
I haven't looked at the data but to my eye, he was struggling to miss bats in 2016.. it seemed like a lot of hitters were getting wood on his pitches and he was struggling to really find a put away.
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In comment 13338960 DanMetroMan said:
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actually had a slightly lower FIP than Robles and I think most people would have been happy with adding a "second Robles" with a track record of being much better than that vs. what they have done so far. Kind of strange statement... you rave about Robles, if the Mets signed his twin brother with the exact same numbers you'd be raving about the move...
I dont think Robles was very good last year personally. 3.48 ERA to match a 3.56 FIP. He was a 1FWAR player. Uehara 3.45 to match a 3.51 with a 0.6 fWAR. Not a difference maker IMO and he's 42.
I'm already on record stating BBI overrates Robles thanks to his velocity. The Mets have twice relegated Robles to basically a non-factor during pennant races. He may improve (it's certainly possible) but he's an unreliable hard thrower at this point. I think they have internal options who at worst could be as good as him at some point.
I agree with this completely and its actually my exact rational for why I wasn't frothing at the mouth for a Uehara for 6 mill. The difference between literally "any" reliever and somebody like Robles/Euhara and your likely talking tiny fractions of a win.
If you want to wait until the deadline and make the move then you're looking at prospects. Who wouldn't trade signing Miller to the deal the Yankees did vs trading top end talent for him?
In November when you're wondering what happened, you can remember back to the fractions of wins that were unimportant in the off-season.
Cubs and Indians two biggest deadline acquisitions? Chapman and Miller. Coincidence?
Royals biggest asset (arguably?) Bullpen, they shortened every damn game to 6 innings, and it's where they beat the Mets.
not sure how much more evidence needs to be presented for people to understand the shift, pay now or pay more later.
LOL. They had the second best bullpen in baseball. What a joke.
LOL. They had the second best bullpen in baseball. What a joke.
How did that work out? Second best bullpen in baseball gave up a 3R HR in a tie game top of the 9th to lose it.
keep pumping those regular season stats and reliever overuse. and continue to lose. Playoffs are a different game.
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"cant go into the playoffs with bullpen the Mets had last year".
LOL. They had the second best bullpen in baseball. What a joke.
How did that work out? Second best bullpen in baseball gave up a 3R HR in a tie game top of the 9th to lose it.
keep pumping those regular season stats and reliever overuse. and continue to lose. Playoffs are a different game.
Wow. Familia gave up all 3 runs. How in the heavenly of fucks was Familia not pitching in the 9th there? How was Euhara preventing that from happening? An elite arm, one of the best in the game, gave up runs, and your blaming what exactly? That we shouldn't have used our elite option there?
you think the bullpen is fine or will just magically sort itself out, I think the Mets will be forced to overpay at the deadline if they make no other moves, if options are there, and bullpen will be an Achilles heel in the playoffs.
While you spout "they're the 2nd best bullpen in baseball" as you say oh well let's hope the starters are healthy in 2018.
Who gives a F if they come up small in the post-season?
I'm not a Braves fan.
let's leave it there.
No reason to start insulting anyone.
The equally silly risk we're taking is a desperation move whenever Familia is suspended, as opposed to signing someone who can close like Ziegler (or Holland).
Forget Bruce, the biggest mistake Sandy made this offseason was QO'ing Walker. That $17M should have been invested in the BP if the budget is this tight.
2-30 bullpen in baseball... liability.
2-30 bullpen in baseball... liability.
No, you still don't get it. but whatever, I'm not debating it any further.
At the moment we have 2 of those guys under contract, with the guy who threw most of our 9th innings likely to be suspended for 10-20% of the season, and no replacements have been brought in. At the beginning of the offseason Sandy said they need a late game option and that's undeniably still true today. Robles or someone else could step up but that's a pretty big unknown. There's a reason they've shied away from him down the stretch both of the last 2 years.
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From Lion King to Panda? Lol
Also, Edgin is out of options which is not something I considered before. Not a huge fan, but he was still was decent getting lefties out.
Pen would be
Familia
Reed
Wheeler
Smoker
Edgin
Robles
Sewald/Gilmartin/Goeddel/Lugo
Thor, DeGrom, Harvey, Matz, Gsellman would be my rotation and at some point in the season I would move to a 6 man rotation (IF all 6 were healthy at the same time), I'd still consider moving to a 6 with Lugo.
2. year after TJS/2 years off usually has biggest impact on control
I'd be fine with 6 man rotation at any point this year (or any other inning saving measures needed for ANY of the SP's). Only hesitation with starting Lugo in the rotation is that he might be the best suited to grow into an important role in the BP. I've gotta say it's very disappointing we couldn't have at least rolled the dice on some combo of Holland, Uehara, Ziegler, Blevins, etc. what's the worst that would have happened? Dump them like Bastardo last year?
2. year after TJS/2 years off usually has biggest impact on control
I'd be fine with 6 man rotation at any point this year (or any other inning saving measures needed for ANY of the SP's). Only hesitation with starting Lugo in the rotation is that he might be the best suited to grow into an important role in the BP. I've gotta say it's very disappointing we couldn't have at least rolled the dice on some combo of Holland, Uehara, Ziegler, Blevins, etc. what's the worst that would have happened? Dump them like Bastardo last year?
I feel like if your biggest concern is Lugo has been so good out of the pen that you are concerned with moving him to the rotation... it's a damn good problem to have. Still hoping for a Blanton type. In all honesty, the only way Wheeler to the pen makes a lot of sense is if they have fully given up on him being a SP, otherwise he needs innings. He may or may not be successful out of the pen but he's not some guaranteed stud reliever given his command. If he's just cannon fodder at this point so be it. But if you have high hopes for him then opening in the pen is a bad move. Finishing the season in the pen to limit innings, zero issue with it.
I would be more shocked if Wheeler was a contributor than if he was hit with a career ending injury in spring training. Not trying to be negative, but just looking at the reality.
The guy I want to see get his act together is Montero. Realize it's beyond a long such as this point, but no one has been able to explain to me what happened.
Such good command in the minors - even up to Binghamton gone to crap in AAA and the majors. Warthen should make it his job to fix Montero.
I don't think he could have been any worse the past two years.
I really believe Vegas (and poor work ethic?) messed him up.
Fangraphs had a good scouting report on him after his 2015 spot start.
I dont know what's going to happen to Wheeler but Pj's point about not many hard throwing starters coming back after a 2 year lay off might be exactly why they are giving up on him as a starter (not saying they are/hypothetical).
Smoltz didn't have the best control when he started out either.
It will be interesting how it all plays out. If he looks healthy in Spring Training without much issue I keep him as a starter. But maybe medically he'll never be a 180-200 inning guy again. Who knows?
"I’ve written since Smith was an amateur that he has raw power, but in his first two seasons in full-season ball he hit just seven homers, as playing his home games in very pitcher-friendly parks led him to focus on going the other way. In 2016, he started pulling the ball more, and hit 14 homers, more than doubling his career total to date, along with 29 doubles to finish with a .302/.367/.457 line. Smith is an extraordinarily disciplined, calm hitter, striking out in just 13 percent of his plate appearances last year, showing an advanced two-strike approach and willingness to use the whole field. In addition to just generally pulling the ball more in 2016, Smith also got the ball in the air more often, which is critical to boosting his batting average since he’s a well below-average runner.
Smith is an above-average defender at first whose 70 arm is sort of wasted at the position, and has worked this offseason on improving his conditioning, which was a concern last year as he was playing at what I’ll politely call the top end of the acceptable range for his weight. There’s still untapped power here, but given the progress Smith has already made in games this year, I expect 20-plus homers from him this year or next along with the same high averages and doubles totals he posted in 2015 and 2016."
Among FA relievers whom #Mets are considering, per sources: Sergio Romo and Joe Smith. And of course, Jerry Blevins. Looking at all of ‘em.
It's a shame we couldn't expose him to a little RF assuming he can finally keep the weight down. I know it wont happen but a 70 arm? Jesus.
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timing with Duda's FA. Lets hope Smith has a good year where there is no question he's ready and not some "okay" year where we have to either go with him or sign some turd for a year.
It's a shame we couldn't expose him to a little RF assuming he can finally keep the weight down. I know it wont happen but a 70 arm? Jesus.
He was considered a 1b only even dating back to HS so I don't think that would be an option. The last place you want to start a player is 1b unless there is no chance he can play another position so pretty clearly the Mets saw him as 1b only.
What was the reason for that?
I just assumed they wanted to upgrade. He was supposed to be a LOOGY and last year lefties hit better against him than righties and he had a pretty bad second half.
What was the reason for that?
I just assumed they wanted to upgrade. He was supposed to be a LOOGY and last year lefties hit better against him than righties and he had a pretty bad second half.
Wasn't at all about upgrading. Blevins was asking for 3 years 21 million when the off-season opened and the Mets weren't willing to go there. Dunn got 19 so Blevins ask didn't seem crazy at all at the time.
He was great 1st half and great against righties, not so much as a loogy and his second half was mediocre.
so it was just to save $$?
I don't get quibbling over 2-3M per year on short team deals like this.
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fact, Blevins was arguably the #2 best lefty non-closer available after Brett Cecil (who got big money), inferior Rzepczynski got 2 years 11. There really was no Blevins upgrade to be had. He's a very solid pitcher, Collins was forced to overuse him. Giving away Alvarez in hindsight looks like a poor decision.
He was great 1st half and great against righties, not so much as a loogy and his second half was mediocre.
so it was just to save $$?
I don't get quibbling over 2-3M per year on short team deals like this.
100% about his contract not performance.
"The Mets really like Jerry Blevins and would prefer to have a bona fide veteran lefty specialist next season in addition to southpaws Josh Edgin and Josh Smoker. Still, team officials are expecting Blevins to get a sizable multiyear offer elsewhere, which may price him out of the Mets' spending appetite for a left-handed reliever. Blevins, 33, is eligible for free agency this offseason after earning $4 million in 2016. He produced a 2.79 ERA in 73 relief appearances. Lefty batters actually hit .255 against Blevins this past season, while righties hit .182.
Adam Rubin, ESPN Staff Writer
but he made $4M last year, and the Mets won't give him $6-7 per to lock him up for 3 years, I'd even start at 3 years 16M or something like that.
That should be short money and if they're ok with his performance, it should be a trivial under the radar signing IMO.
but he made $4M last year, and the Mets won't give him $6-7 per to lock him up for 3 years, I'd even start at 3 years 16M or something like that.
That should be short money and if they're ok with his performance, it should be a trivial under the radar signing IMO.
I'm with you. Not looking to argue budget/spending stuff this season because it becomes tedious but yeah at the end of the day not bringing in/keeping decent guys now usually results in having to give up talent later.
but he made $4M last year, and the Mets won't give him $6-7 per to lock him up for 3 years, I'd even start at 3 years 16M or something like that.
That should be short money and if they're ok with his performance, it should be a trivial under the radar signing IMO.
It's about the years. Sandy doesn't want to go 3 years on a LOOGY. If Blevins wanted 6-7 million on a one year deal it would be done IMO. My guess is Sandy has one year with maybe an option on the table.... Possibly willing to go 2 MAX. Blevins is still asking for 3.
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15 million over 2... steal
Valbuena can play 1b, 2b, 3b. He's a better player than Wilmer and would allow them to use Reyes all over, rest him more. For that price would have been perfect. 114 OPS+ last 3 seasons
Likely their starting 2b in 2018 if things break correctly
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Im guessing you dont extend the QO to Walker then?
Valbuena can play 1b, 2b, 3b. He's a better player than Wilmer and would allow them to use Reyes all over, rest him more. For that price would have been perfect. 114 OPS+ last 3 seasons
Can he hit leadoff? I know Reyes isn't 25 year old Reyes, but I almost value his lead-off hitter ability more than his fielding.
Granderson had a better OBP, but reyes still has speed and puts pressure on pitchers.
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Im guessing you dont extend the QO to Walker then?
Valbuena can play 1b, 2b, 3b. He's a better player than Wilmer and would allow them to use Reyes all over, rest him more. For that price would have been perfect. 114 OPS+ last 3 seasons
I guess but Wilmer is free and much better against lefties. Reyes is more the super sub currently with Flores the 1B power bat that can platoon with Duda. At least in my eyes. If Wright went down then TJ Rivera would leapfrog Flores as next in line for the jack of all trades type. I think if we traded Flores we would immediately be looking for a lefty masher with pop for the bench. I like Flores in his current role.
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In comment 13340330 ZGiants98 said:
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Im guessing you dont extend the QO to Walker then?
Valbuena can play 1b, 2b, 3b. He's a better player than Wilmer and would allow them to use Reyes all over, rest him more. For that price would have been perfect. 114 OPS+ last 3 seasons
Can he hit leadoff? I know Reyes isn't 25 year old Reyes, but I almost value his lead-off hitter ability more than his fielding.
Granderson had a better OBP, but reyes still has speed and puts pressure on pitchers.
Reyes isn't even going to be in the lineup when Wright is so they are going to have to find an alternate leadoff hitter for a good portion of the season. We aren't going to see 110 games started by Jose Reyes unless David Wright is kaput.
Reyes is planning to get time in the OF this Spring too, which might make sense for a number of reasons, keeps his leadoff bat and probably improves OF D even if at 33 or whatever he is, he hasn't ever played OF. He'd be probably better than Bruce.
See what happens with Bruce, he's kind of the keystone to the planning not to rehash yesterdays thread.
Breslow is 36 years old and basically sucks for his career. ST invite? Sure who cares but lowering his arm slot means very little. I'm sure these older guys tinker with trying these things all the time. Jason Marquis is attempting a comeback as well...
He's probably at least decent-ish against lefties. His control was a major issue in limited play last year though.
He played very well in his limited role. It's these little signings, the ML contracts, the guys who get cut - I love the small moves.
I'd look into dealing them some AAA prospects to get Joe Kelly.
especially since their farm took a hit with the Sale and Thornburg trades.
Kelly has been relegated to the BP and is like starter #7 or 8 and I might even see what the Mets scouts thought of Henry Ownes and pursue him. I think Owens gets bumped to Pawtucket.
I'm so glad I'm not the only one who remembers that. I made a comment to Joe about it last year when he started posting again and he didn't even remember it.
Agree on both. Neither would be cheap, but Kelly's $3M, plus impending arbitration and logjam might be enough to move him.
Owens would be a project, I just think the Sox would move him for a prospect seeing how the odds are Owens ceiling is now probably a middle reliever/LOOGY (if he can figrue out how to get lefties out)/AAAA pitcher. And the Mets would only be interested IMO if Warthen thinks he can correct his control.
Plus the Sox now have Price (opt out not withstanding) Sale and Porcello locked up long-ish term and youngster Eduardo Rodriguez under team control as well as veteran knuckleballer Steven Wright.
Plus they just signed Pomeranz to a 1-year deal.