coming off serious surgery...everything sounds optimistic but what is the reality? will the Mets move him to the BP? will he start the season on the DL?
not a CBA expert so don't quote me but it sure seems like Familia will end up with 34-35 games unless there is some room for negotiation when it comes to his service time. Last season the PA puffed out their chest and said they would fight any ban that would cost Chapman his shot at FA. I don't see why this would be any different (again, maybe there is room for negotiation where he gets both a longer man and still gets his service time, I have no idea how that works).
Dunn, Gsellman, Dom Smith and Rosario on Law's top 100. Figure 30 teams/100 prospects so the average team will have a little more than 3 (teams like the Yankees will likely have 6-7).
mainly because of relativity. It's a weak position league-wide.
there was something like 5 catchers above replacement level in the league that qualified.
Plus TDA was so bad, he can't really be worse. Catcher is what it is at this point.
The only thing I'm really worried about is health of the starting pitching and nothing the Mets can probably do about that besides worry and bullpen.
And I don't think there's anything meaningful they can do about that either at this point.
and I'm not going to rehash my bullpen concerns. We all saw the games and know how the Mets lost - the World Series games and the wild card.
That's a bit misleading to be honest. Catchers sit more than other positions so less will qualify. If you go with 400+ PA's 13 catchers were worth at least 1.7 fWAR and again WAR is a counting stat so you sit 30-40-50 games it's going to be very tough to put up the same # as a guy playing 150 games. That's not to say there were excellent options out there but it's potentially a real issue given how bad/injured TDA has been and how bad Plawecki has been. Potentially a total black hole.
Either way, misleading or not, I think it's fair to say there are not a lot of quality big league catchers. and if that's your black hole, oh well.
But more to my point, what are the Mets going to do about it now? There is almost literally nothing they can do about the catcher position at this point.
Need to hope TDA reverts back to what people expected of him, if he's close to that at least the problem is solved until he's hurt.
The main concerns I have with the Mets are health of the starting pitchers and the bullpen.
the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
"living the life" comment. People see what they want to see and clearly, have a noticeable bias.
What's my clear, noticeable bias?
That's what I thought.
If I have a Star Wars question I'll ask Z but until you have at least 50 years in as a Met fan, kindly refrain from butting into my conversations, you're not qualified.
the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
Remember... they are counting on
Jose Reyes (34 in June, injury prone)
David Wright (nuff said)
Walker (coming off back surgery)
Duda (coming off back surgery/missed season)
TDA (injury prone + awful in 2016 with the alternatives being awful for his career so far Plawecki and generally crappy bat Rene Rivera)
Lagares (injury prone, just got hurt again)
Cespedes (whom I love but... injury prone)
Granderson (36 in March)
Conforto (absolutely awful in 2016)
Sure the offense could be better than average but there are so many ?? that it's really hard for me to have much confidence offensively. I really have to disagree with Lagares being a "nice option" offensively. The guy has posted a 79 and 84 wRC+ the past 2 seasons. The glove was incredible his first season but his bat is overall a net negative
Sad that Familia getting suspended may be the best thing that happened
for the BP this offseason. He and Reed are the only 2 trustworthy late game options and they're getting even less rest than last year (hence the suspension possibly being a good thing).
Losing Blevins is going to be a very big loss, the guy got big outs regularly against Harper, Freeman, Murphy. A loogy isn't a big deal until the game is close and 1 of those guys is coming to the plate.
Ziegler/Uehara (or Thornburg via trade) would have been solid additions at their respective price tags.
to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
I agree re: the offense. While built similarly to last year's team, and likely to still be pretty streaky, this year's has so much more depth built up. I expect the productivity to be much closer to what we saw in April last year vs. May/June.
has the Mets the #18 offensive team in baseball in 2016, 16th in wRC+, 17th in wOBA. I think my depiction of an average offense is more than fair. It's not like they have made any additions. Hopefully healthy Duda makes an impact and/or TDA is solid.
to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
has the Mets the #18 offensive team in baseball in 2016, 16th in wRC+, 17th in wOBA. I think my depiction of an average offense is more than fair. It's not like they have made any additions. Hopefully healthy Duda makes an impact and/or TDA is solid.
Well they get Wright back. LOL, Ok I hate having fun at the captain's expense, but whatever, sometimes have to laugh.
Seriously though I agree with you.
From an optimistic standpoint though you can look at:
Duda returning
TDA improving
Conforto improving
Reyes full season (or however much be plays) at leadoff (though not like he's a portrait of health)
Walker returning
to think the Mets offense could/should be better than last year if they can escape the dreaded injury bug.
to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
Excellent his first year, since then he's more "good". 2015+2016 he's been worth 4 DRS, 2014 he was worth 6, 2013 he was worth a pretty remarkable +14. Past 2 seasons CF with 1000 or more innings in CF he ranks 13th.
has the Mets the #18 offensive team in baseball in 2016, 16th in wRC+, 17th in wOBA. I think my depiction of an average offense is more than fair. It's not like they have made any additions. Hopefully healthy Duda makes an impact and/or TDA is solid.
Well they get Wright back. LOL, Ok I hate having fun at the captain's expense, but whatever, sometimes have to laugh.
Seriously though I agree with you.
From an optimistic standpoint though you can look at:
Duda returning
TDA improving
Conforto improving
Reyes full season (or however much be plays) at leadoff (though not like he's a portrait of health)
Walker returning
to think the Mets offense could/should be better than last year if they can escape the dreaded injury bug.
Sure but weighing positive/pessimistic outlooks and "guessing" somewhere in between suggests the offense is likely closer to average than a really strong offensive club. Obviously if TDA has a big year, or Conforto bounces back etc things can change. I'm not counting on Wright for much personally.
is average if the starting pitching stays healthy and the bullpen holds it together.
and yeah, I'm not counting on Wright for anything. But would be a nice bonus to get production from him, though he's said he doesn't want to be a "feel good story" which is nice, since I don't think he will be.
always root for Wright but it does put fans in a weird position IF he's not hitting. I want to win games, I don't really care about Wright and some feel good story. Give him a chance to help the team but don't obsess over the fact he's the captain or a good dude.
has the Mets the #18 offensive team in baseball in 2016, 16th in wRC+, 17th in wOBA. I think my depiction of an average offense is more than fair. It's not like they have made any additions. Hopefully healthy Duda makes an impact and/or TDA is solid.
It's 100% fair to call last year's offense average, but there are many reasons to expect this year's offense to be better than last year's.
1. Conforto (or Bruce if he's still here?) - neither would need to be an allstar to be better than Conforto was in May/June.
2. Catcher - a veteran backup should have been brought in, but it would be hard for anyone to do less than TDA did last year. He had 15 RBI's and 11 XBH.
3. Injuries - obviously Duda should upgrade 1B production. Cespedes playing LF and not CF will hopefully keep him off the DL. I don't expect anything at all from Wright and I'm not sure what Walker will be coming off the back injury but Reyes/Rivera/Cecchini/Flores are all good depth options.
always root for Wright but it does put fans in a weird position IF he's not hitting. I want to win games, I don't really care about Wright and some feel good story. Give him a chance to help the team but don't obsess over the fact he's the captain or a good dude.
Yea, this could be awkward. Almost like the Victor Cruz situation was for NYG this year but would be an even bigger microscope.
always root for Wright but it does put fans in a weird position IF he's not hitting. I want to win games, I don't really care about Wright and some feel good story. Give him a chance to help the team but don't obsess over the fact he's the captain or a good dude.
That's where Terry Collins worries me a little. How much rope does he give Wright?
to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
Excellent his first year, since then he's more "good". 2015+2016 he's been worth 4 DRS, 2014 he was worth 6, 2013 he was worth a pretty remarkable +14. Past 2 seasons CF with 1000 or more innings in CF he ranks 13th.
In his limited CF time last year his OOZ plays and UZR were basically back to 2014 levels (he only had 1 assist though). He actually made an even higher % of remote chance plays (1-10%). He's still a very good defender, the bigger issue is that he gets himself injured a lot.
always root for Wright but it does put fans in a weird position IF he's not hitting. I want to win games, I don't really care about Wright and some feel good story. Give him a chance to help the team but don't obsess over the fact he's the captain or a good dude.
That's where Terry Collins worries me a little. How much rope does he give Wright?
That will be Collin's first big challenge of the season. They can't allow him to strike out every other at bat, in front of Cespedes no less, with good options wasting away on the bench.
If the Mets can get through spring training with a healthy starting 6 (pitchers) I'll be thrilled. If they have 5 of them still healthy in September/October I'll be even more thrilled.
"living the life" comment. People see what they want to see and clearly, have a noticeable bias.
What's my clear, noticeable bias?
That's what I thought.
If I have a Star Wars question I'll ask Z but until you have at least 50 years in as a Met fan, kindly refrain from butting into my conversations, you're not qualified.
Jesus Christ man. It was pretty obvious you're one of those "Harvey cared too much about the limelight" people based on your comment. I personally don't share that belief and I doubt Arc does either. You seriously want to go rounds over this?
from one or two positions I really dont care. Obviously if TDA goes down early again we are in deep shit. If Duda wasn't healthy that would be another major issue. The rest? Meh. We have a ton of depth in the middle infield and outfield right now. You cant even really point to Wright anymore since Reyes proved he can still play last year and is essentially ready to step in immediately when needed.
Maybe it's a personal choice but I cant combine leagues when discussing team offense when the other league gets to have an extra hitter in their lineup. Mets finished 6th in wRC+ and 6th in WAR last year offensively in the NL. That's without Duda for most of the year, TDA either out or terrible, Conforto terrible or in AAA with no replacement until Bruce... Walker, Cabrera, and Cespedes all missing significant stretches, no Reyes for the first 4 months, no AAA depth ready until the second half.
I just think we are much better situated this time around. I think we are a comfortably a top 5 NL offense (but I have said that the last 3 seasons).
Bruce is still here opening day there is probably an argument for Conforto to not even be on the roster. I still believe in Conforto but Cespedes/Granderson/Bruce is likely your starting OF in that situation with Lagares the 4th, almost makes more sense to roll with Ty Kelly (especially if they deem Rivera and/or Reyes even passable in the OF). Still think Bruce is dumped before we get to that point
I also dont know what Smoker splits we are looking at
but he had 6 professional innings against lefties last year. The fact that his peripherals were off the charts last year in Vegas and the fact that he specifically is working on the "Warthen slider" with Warthen this offseason to have an out pitch against lefties has me pretty excited. I also dont see him as a LOOGY. If we really do nothing Edgin will be the LOOGY and Smoker is your late inning crossover guy.
Bruce is still here opening day there is probably an argument for Conforto to not even be on the roster. I still believe in Conforto but Cespedes/Granderson/Bruce is likely your starting OF in that situation with Lagares the 4th, almost makes more sense to roll with Ty Kelly (especially if they deem Rivera and/or Reyes even passable in the OF). Still think Bruce is dumped before we get to that point
Which is what they should do. Conforto shouldn't rot on the bench. Id be fine with Kelly and Lagares as my backups and Nimmo and Conforto in Vegas playing every day but obviously both would leapfrog Kelly if a major injury happened immediately.
RE: I also dont know what Smoker splits we are looking at
but he had 6 professional innings against lefties last year. The fact that his peripherals were off the charts last year in Vegas and the fact that he specifically is working on the "Warthen slider" with Warthen this offseason to have an out pitch against lefties has me pretty excited. I also dont see him as a LOOGY. If we really do nothing Edgin will be the LOOGY and Smoker is your late inning crossover guy.
Smoker HIMSELF said he struggled with lefties and needs to improve his slider.
at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
in sending Conforto to Vegas? Especially to start an inferior player. We're trying to win ball games. Let Bruce pitch hit if we're stuck with him.
As bad as Conforto was he still out produced Bruce (in fWar) with far less at bats. If you want to say that Conforto's production was weighted toward the beginning of the season, well... hopefully you realize how bad Bruce was during his time with the Mets.
isn't likely going to play at all if Bruce is here. If he were righty it would be a different story. I don't know that Ty Kelly is even a big leaguer but Nimmo would have the exact same PT issue. Rivera/Kelly make more sense if Bruce is here.
in sending Conforto to Vegas? Especially to start an inferior player. We're trying to win ball games. Let Bruce pitch hit if we're stuck with him.
As bad as Conforto was he still out produced Bruce (in fWar) with far less at bats. If you want to say that Conforto's production was weighted toward the beginning of the season, well... hopefully you realize how bad Bruce was during his time with the Mets.
You honestly think Jay Bruce and his 13 million are going to sit on the bench on a team managed by Terry Collins? Conforto was just as bad/even worse than Bruce (and I say that as someone who badly wanted Bruce dumped) but there is a close to 0% chance Bruce is behind Conforto on the depth chart if hes here.
at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
He looks the part and throws hard. He admitted he had to work on it so that's a good sign vs. simply saying he was unlucky or something. I'd still much prefer Blevins with Smoker as insurance however. In fact I'd like both relievers the Dodgers want.. Blanton and Blevins. Gimme both.
He would really be the 5th OF in name only as he would mostly pinch hit and fill in everywhere. Conforto and Nimmo go to AAA until Bruce is traded.
All that said, what I think they should do and what I want are two different things. I think Conforto's floor is Bruce's 2016 in 2017 and he doesn't have anything left to prove in Vegas but there's nothing we can do with the roster jam at the moment.
at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
He looks the part and throws hard. He admitted he had to work on it so that's a good sign vs. simply saying he was unlucky or something. I'd still much prefer Blevins with Smoker as insurance however. In fact I'd like both relievers the Dodgers want.. Blanton and Blevins. Gimme both.
Id be on board with that. I still think a few relievers fall through the cracks late in the off season and Sandy gets a bargain or two.
Far, far more realistic than Conlon. Lefties hit .141 against him in AA, 24.1 innings 30 k's. I like Conlon as a potential backend MLB SP but...34.2 innings vs. lefties with 13 k's means a TON of balls in play in a LOOGY role...good loogy's miss bats vs. lefties.
but I guess depth isn't a bad thing. Hard to complain about penciling in a RF who had 100 RBIs last year, though the way things go for this organization it's near certain Bruce starts the season hitting under .200 and Conforto hits 3 homers in his first game.
He's probably a lock for 25-34 HR, 100 RBIs.... wRC+ 110-115. Those guys dont grow on trees and I could care less about his WAR as a corner OF. His defensive ratings (not that it matters anyway) isn't even consistent. He turned in some pretty good defensive years in the last 5-6 here and there. The one thing I'll never understand is why people think the Mets are out looking to clear his salary. They didn't HAVE to pick up his option. They purposely spent 13 million to bring him back. Sandy will recoup that value via trade or he will keep him. He was never going to "shed" him.
a healthy Duda back... Cabrera and Walker more comfortable and relaxed year two... Grandy... Of course Ces....I really think Bruce can just sit back and chill. It's always been him and Votto in the middle of the Reds order. On the Mets, he's like the 5th or 6th best option in the lineup. I'm thinking with a lot less pressure he might do well.
Dunn, Gsellman, Dom Smith and Rosario on Law's top 100. Figure 30 teams/100 prospects so the average team will have a little more than 3 (teams like the Yankees will likely have 6-7).
Quote:
mainly because of relativity. It's a weak position league-wide.
there was something like 5 catchers above replacement level in the league that qualified.
Plus TDA was so bad, he can't really be worse. Catcher is what it is at this point.
The only thing I'm really worried about is health of the starting pitching and nothing the Mets can probably do about that besides worry and bullpen.
And I don't think there's anything meaningful they can do about that either at this point.
and I'm not going to rehash my bullpen concerns. We all saw the games and know how the Mets lost - the World Series games and the wild card.
That's a bit misleading to be honest. Catchers sit more than other positions so less will qualify. If you go with 400+ PA's 13 catchers were worth at least 1.7 fWAR and again WAR is a counting stat so you sit 30-40-50 games it's going to be very tough to put up the same # as a guy playing 150 games. That's not to say there were excellent options out there but it's potentially a real issue given how bad/injured TDA has been and how bad Plawecki has been. Potentially a total black hole.
Either way, misleading or not, I think it's fair to say there are not a lot of quality big league catchers. and if that's your black hole, oh well.
But more to my point, what are the Mets going to do about it now? There is almost literally nothing they can do about the catcher position at this point.
Need to hope TDA reverts back to what people expected of him, if he's close to that at least the problem is solved until he's hurt.
The main concerns I have with the Mets are health of the starting pitchers and the bullpen.
Catcher is probably 5th or 6th on my list.
Quote:
"living the life" comment. People see what they want to see and clearly, have a noticeable bias.
What's my clear, noticeable bias?
That's what I thought.
If I have a Star Wars question I'll ask Z but until you have at least 50 years in as a Met fan, kindly refrain from butting into my conversations, you're not qualified.
Even someone like Uehara one year 6M would have made me feel a little better.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
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the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
Remember... they are counting on
Jose Reyes (34 in June, injury prone)
David Wright (nuff said)
Walker (coming off back surgery)
Duda (coming off back surgery/missed season)
TDA (injury prone + awful in 2016 with the alternatives being awful for his career so far Plawecki and generally crappy bat Rene Rivera)
Lagares (injury prone, just got hurt again)
Cespedes (whom I love but... injury prone)
Granderson (36 in March)
Conforto (absolutely awful in 2016)
Sure the offense could be better than average but there are so many ?? that it's really hard for me to have much confidence offensively. I really have to disagree with Lagares being a "nice option" offensively. The guy has posted a 79 and 84 wRC+ the past 2 seasons. The glove was incredible his first season but his bat is overall a net negative
Losing Blevins is going to be a very big loss, the guy got big outs regularly against Harper, Freeman, Murphy. A loogy isn't a big deal until the game is close and 1 of those guys is coming to the plate.
Ziegler/Uehara (or Thornburg via trade) would have been solid additions at their respective price tags.
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the SP will make or break the season. If multiple SP aren't/can't stay healthy it's likely going to be a long season. They don't have the "next" Fulmer or the "next" Thor etc coming this season and the offense looks averagish on paper. SP must stay healthy/be healthy. Bullpen still looks like a weak spot however. Minus familia for 30+, - Blevins for now, - Salas who gave them some nice innings. While talented they clearly don't trust Robles in a big spot. Could guys like Lugo or Smoker be good this season out of the pen? Sure but it's kinda crazy relying on guys like that. Smoker in particular was awful vs. lefties in 2016 (he himself acknowledged as much). I thought they needed 2 relievers even before the Familia/likely losing Blevins stuff.
Mostly agree (especially regarding SP and pen), but I'm a little more bullish on the offense. There's few, if any, really "weak" positions on offense (barring last year's TDA being who he is). There's also a reallllly solid bench that can sort of mitigate downside on some of the starters underperforming. Flores, Reyes, Rivera, Lagares are nice options (with Smith and maybe, just maybe, Rosario, in the mix later in the year) to come off the bench when you aren't relying on them to be starters.
I agree re: the offense. While built similarly to last year's team, and likely to still be pretty streaky, this year's has so much more depth built up. I expect the productivity to be much closer to what we saw in April last year vs. May/June.
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
Well they get Wright back. LOL, Ok I hate having fun at the captain's expense, but whatever, sometimes have to laugh.
Seriously though I agree with you.
From an optimistic standpoint though you can look at:
Duda returning
TDA improving
Conforto improving
Reyes full season (or however much be plays) at leadoff (though not like he's a portrait of health)
Walker returning
to think the Mets offense could/should be better than last year if they can escape the dreaded injury bug.
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to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
Excellent his first year, since then he's more "good". 2015+2016 he's been worth 4 DRS, 2014 he was worth 6, 2013 he was worth a pretty remarkable +14. Past 2 seasons CF with 1000 or more innings in CF he ranks 13th.
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has the Mets the #18 offensive team in baseball in 2016, 16th in wRC+, 17th in wOBA. I think my depiction of an average offense is more than fair. It's not like they have made any additions. Hopefully healthy Duda makes an impact and/or TDA is solid.
Well they get Wright back. LOL, Ok I hate having fun at the captain's expense, but whatever, sometimes have to laugh.
Seriously though I agree with you.
From an optimistic standpoint though you can look at:
Duda returning
TDA improving
Conforto improving
Reyes full season (or however much be plays) at leadoff (though not like he's a portrait of health)
Walker returning
to think the Mets offense could/should be better than last year if they can escape the dreaded injury bug.
Sure but weighing positive/pessimistic outlooks and "guessing" somewhere in between suggests the offense is likely closer to average than a really strong offensive club. Obviously if TDA has a big year, or Conforto bounces back etc things can change. I'm not counting on Wright for much personally.
and yeah, I'm not counting on Wright for anything. But would be a nice bonus to get production from him, though he's said he doesn't want to be a "feel good story" which is nice, since I don't think he will be.
It's 100% fair to call last year's offense average, but there are many reasons to expect this year's offense to be better than last year's.
1. Conforto (or Bruce if he's still here?) - neither would need to be an allstar to be better than Conforto was in May/June.
2. Catcher - a veteran backup should have been brought in, but it would be hard for anyone to do less than TDA did last year. He had 15 RBI's and 11 XBH.
3. Injuries - obviously Duda should upgrade 1B production. Cespedes playing LF and not CF will hopefully keep him off the DL. I don't expect anything at all from Wright and I'm not sure what Walker will be coming off the back injury but Reyes/Rivera/Cecchini/Flores are all good depth options.
Yea, this could be awkward. Almost like the Victor Cruz situation was for NYG this year but would be an even bigger microscope.
That's where Terry Collins worries me a little. How much rope does he give Wright?
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In comment 13338283 DanMetroMan said:
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to belabor the Lagares point but past 2 seasons he has 625 PA's, that's 96th among OF's with 600 or more, 96th out of 105. That's really bad. He's been worst than guys like Aaron Hicks, Billy Burns, Delino DeShields and Cody Asche and it's not as if he steals bases. His value is glove and being passable vs. lefties (.260 with zero power in 2016 vs. lefties, .650 OPS).
Lagares is what he is - excellent defensive CF, pretty decent at making contact, and relatively injury prone. Very good 4th OF'er (and really the perfect guy to compliment Granderson in CF).
Excellent his first year, since then he's more "good". 2015+2016 he's been worth 4 DRS, 2014 he was worth 6, 2013 he was worth a pretty remarkable +14. Past 2 seasons CF with 1000 or more innings in CF he ranks 13th.
In his limited CF time last year his OOZ plays and UZR were basically back to 2014 levels (he only had 1 assist though). He actually made an even higher % of remote chance plays (1-10%). He's still a very good defender, the bigger issue is that he gets himself injured a lot.
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always root for Wright but it does put fans in a weird position IF he's not hitting. I want to win games, I don't really care about Wright and some feel good story. Give him a chance to help the team but don't obsess over the fact he's the captain or a good dude.
That's where Terry Collins worries me a little. How much rope does he give Wright?
That will be Collin's first big challenge of the season. They can't allow him to strike out every other at bat, in front of Cespedes no less, with good options wasting away on the bench.
If the Mets can get through spring training with a healthy starting 6 (pitchers) I'll be thrilled. If they have 5 of them still healthy in September/October I'll be even more thrilled.
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In comment 13337583 ZGiants98 said:
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"living the life" comment. People see what they want to see and clearly, have a noticeable bias.
What's my clear, noticeable bias?
That's what I thought.
If I have a Star Wars question I'll ask Z but until you have at least 50 years in as a Met fan, kindly refrain from butting into my conversations, you're not qualified.
Jesus Christ man. It was pretty obvious you're one of those "Harvey cared too much about the limelight" people based on your comment. I personally don't share that belief and I doubt Arc does either. You seriously want to go rounds over this?
Maybe it's a personal choice but I cant combine leagues when discussing team offense when the other league gets to have an extra hitter in their lineup. Mets finished 6th in wRC+ and 6th in WAR last year offensively in the NL. That's without Duda for most of the year, TDA either out or terrible, Conforto terrible or in AAA with no replacement until Bruce... Walker, Cabrera, and Cespedes all missing significant stretches, no Reyes for the first 4 months, no AAA depth ready until the second half.
I just think we are much better situated this time around. I think we are a comfortably a top 5 NL offense (but I have said that the last 3 seasons).
Which is what they should do. Conforto shouldn't rot on the bench. Id be fine with Kelly and Lagares as my backups and Nimmo and Conforto in Vegas playing every day but obviously both would leapfrog Kelly if a major injury happened immediately.
Smoker HIMSELF said he struggled with lefties and needs to improve his slider.
As bad as Conforto was he still out produced Bruce (in fWar) with far less at bats. If you want to say that Conforto's production was weighted toward the beginning of the season, well... hopefully you realize how bad Bruce was during his time with the Mets.
As bad as Conforto was he still out produced Bruce (in fWar) with far less at bats. If you want to say that Conforto's production was weighted toward the beginning of the season, well... hopefully you realize how bad Bruce was during his time with the Mets.
You honestly think Jay Bruce and his 13 million are going to sit on the bench on a team managed by Terry Collins? Conforto was just as bad/even worse than Bruce (and I say that as someone who badly wanted Bruce dumped) but there is a close to 0% chance Bruce is behind Conforto on the depth chart if hes here.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
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at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
He looks the part and throws hard. He admitted he had to work on it so that's a good sign vs. simply saying he was unlucky or something. I'd still much prefer Blevins with Smoker as insurance however. In fact I'd like both relievers the Dodgers want.. Blanton and Blevins. Gimme both.
All that said, what I think they should do and what I want are two different things. I think Conforto's floor is Bruce's 2016 in 2017 and he doesn't have anything left to prove in Vegas but there's nothing we can do with the roster jam at the moment.
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In comment 13338393 DanMetroMan said:
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at AAA allowed lefties to hit .282 against him. 29 lefties at the big league level .360/.448/..600.... and again HE noted it so it's kinda strange to take issue with the numbers.
I think his peripherals in Vegas showed he was pitching better than the average ect. indicated but to be honest I thought you might have just quick referenced his ML splits so I apologize. No issue at all. Im just very optimistic. A lefty throwing mid-90s with his control an a (hopefully) improved secondary pitch. I dont think it will be long before he starts getting lefties out consistently.
He looks the part and throws hard. He admitted he had to work on it so that's a good sign vs. simply saying he was unlucky or something. I'd still much prefer Blevins with Smoker as insurance however. In fact I'd like both relievers the Dodgers want.. Blanton and Blevins. Gimme both.
Id be on board with that. I still think a few relievers fall through the cracks late in the off season and Sandy gets a bargain or two.
Far, far more realistic than Conlon. Lefties hit .141 against him in AA, 24.1 innings 30 k's. I like Conlon as a potential backend MLB SP but...34.2 innings vs. lefties with 13 k's means a TON of balls in play in a LOOGY role...good loogy's miss bats vs. lefties.