coming off serious surgery...everything sounds optimistic but what is the reality? will the Mets move him to the BP? will he start the season on the DL?
Sandy apparently had assumed he would be able to move the 13 rather easily and held up reliever acquisitions to do so. I personally would have done the same (and perhaps not offer walker the qo) but it's annoying that the Mets now seem set at going into the season with a somewhat deficient bullpen as a result of the Bruce situation. Obviously I'll shut my face if they sign one of the remaining guys but as it stands now the pen is slightly concerning.
With regard to the offense, I thought the Mets were much higher from August 1st on (i.e. When ceapedes and Reyes were in lineup together for fist time). Much like two seasons ago I think looking at the offensive numbers from may is not necessarily fair for what to expect this upcoming years.
If you compared what the FO thought this team would look like going into spring training vs what it actually is looking like going into spring training - night and day. Completely whiffed on virtually all of their objectives.
With that said, Im not doom and gloom going into the season. It's been expected for virtully the entire offseason that Bruce would have to start in RF on opening day. His value can only go up trade wise. COnforto could only benefit from starting the season in LV and getting into a groove.
As painful as it will be for most to admit, resigning Ces might have been the mistake.
Sandy apparently had assumed he would be able to move the 13 rather easily and held up reliever acquisitions to do so. I personally would have done the same (and perhaps not offer walker the qo) but it's annoying that the Mets now seem set at going into the season with a somewhat deficient bullpen as a result of the Bruce situation. Obviously I'll shut my face if they sign one of the remaining guys but as it stands now the pen is slightly concerning.
With regard to the offense, I thought the Mets were much higher from August 1st on (i.e. When ceapedes and Reyes were in lineup together for fist time). Much like two seasons ago I think looking at the offensive numbers from may is not necessarily fair for what to expect this upcoming years.
I dont believe this to be true at all. There is no way we couldnt add a middle reliever or two and worry about trading Bruce later. People always think there is some exact amount in a safe and once its spent its spent or you have to clear salary to bring more on. Its not the case. Sandy has said so a million times. Even used analogy's such as : "Its like a bathtub... the water goes up and it goes down... It's fluid!" Sandy also sends a lot of smoke likely to keep prices down. If teams/players think we cant spend over X, they know where they stand and cant ask for the moon. When it comes to Blevins its all about the years. Sandy doesn't think a Loogy is worth locking into a 3 year deal. I say good.
If you compared what the FO thought this team would look like going into spring training vs what it actually is looking like going into spring training - night and day. Completely whiffed on virtually all of their objectives.
With that said, Im not doom and gloom going into the season. It's been expected for virtully the entire offseason that Bruce would have to start in RF on opening day. His value can only go up trade wise. COnforto could only benefit from starting the season in LV and getting into a groove.
As painful as it will be for most to admit, resigning Ces might have been the mistake.
Kind of an odd statement but that's insider stuff that your privy to that only confuses everyone probably. I too heard the Mets had bigger plans early in the offseason and nothing materialized but obviously what you're saying doesn't make much sense to most IMO.
and if he is then you know he's not happy with the team as currently constituted for at least two reasons that came directly from Sandy.
1. He acknowledged payroll is higher than they like, or in Sandy's words "payroll is an issue"
2. He doesn't like the roster right now in terms of playing time flexibility. I take that to me too many he doesn't see a clean way to get everyone on the roster the right amount of PT (IMO too many LH OFers and too many MI's), but he didn't elaborate from what I read.
Sandy has acknowledge the bullpen is the main "un-finished" unit (my word) and he's said they're looking both internally and externally to finish it (in terms of openind day roster).
I'll wait and see the team the Mets field on April 3 against the Braves and I'm going to say 75% chance or more it's different than the one today.
On another topic the Mets schedule is weird, but I think primed for a good start.
they open with 16 games against the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins and 26 of their first 32 games are against that trio (Nats sandwiched in there for 6 too)
What I find somewhat weird is they don't play outside the NL East until May 8.
"Szapucki was the Mets’ fifth-round pick in the 2015 draft as a 19-year-old senior out of high school in West Palm Beach, but he pitched just two innings that summer after he signed, so he came into 2016 as just another guy in the system. Then he delivered a true breakout season, as he moved from the Appy League to the New York-Penn League and dominated at both stops. He did so working a 92-96 mph fastball with a wipeout curveball and good command of both pitches, as well as a nascent changeup that he has taken from nonexistent to average in a year.
His season ended in mid-August after just nine starts and 52 innings due to back soreness, but before that, he showed at least mid-rotation potential, between the out pitch in the curveball and the ability to throw everything for strikes. This will be a big year for him developmentally, as he’ll be asked to throw most of a full season, and his stuff alone should dominate low-A hitters. His potential to turn into even a solid No. 3 starter would be an enormous success story for a team’s fifth-round pick."
So far Szapucki, Gsellman, and Dunn all in the 100 Â
The real issue right now is the bullpen. We really have done nothing to strengthen it and between Familia likely being suspended 30 games or so and Blevins not being back (as of yet at least) I have pretty legitimate concerns about the overall depth back there.
I also think it's a lot to expect Reed to replicate his 2016. Chances are he regresses at least slightly.
RE: So far Szapucki, Gsellman, and Dunn all in the 100 Â
Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
and the pen will evolve as the season moves along like it always does. Some spring training invites might impress (like Henderson last year) some young upside arms might impress (like Sewald and Smoker) and the two horses at the end will still be there for most of it. Reed saved 100 games over a 3 year stretch and seems to be pitching his best baseball under Warthen's tutelage right now. Sure, maybe, he's not a top 6 reliever in the game last year (that includes closers) but as a 8th inning guy? Im betting he's still close to top of the heap. The pen will evolve and we can always add guys at the deadline. We also dont know exactly where Wheeler, Lugo and others are going. Im not worried at all. Middle relievers generally dont effect wins and losses in terms of the season.
RE: RE: So far Szapucki, Gsellman, and Dunn all in the 100 Â
Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
due respect but you can't have it both ways and Bruce both being "underrated" and praising his bat and "defensive issues overblown" AND have extremely limited trade interest in him. The entire league is wrong on the value of Jay Bruce? Doesn't that seem unlikely?
He's probably a lock for 25-34 HR, 100 RBIs.... wRC+ 110-115. Those guys dont grow on trees and I could care less about his WAR as a corner OF. His defensive ratings (not that it matters anyway) isn't even consistent. He turned in some pretty good defensive years in the last 5-6 here and there. The one thing I'll never understand is why people think the Mets are out looking to clear his salary. They didn't HAVE to pick up his option. They purposely spent 13 million to bring him back. Sandy will recoup that value via trade or he will keep him. He was never going to "shed" him.
He's been below 110 wRC 2 of the past 3 years, so how is he a "lock" to be 110-115 wRC? I'm not saying he has no chance at hitting in that range, just not sure why you think he's a "lock."
Also, these types of players, slightly above average hitters but useless in the field, do sort of grow on trees. Look at how little money these types of guys got on the open market this offseason. Sandy clearly tried to dump Bruce and no one wanted him for that salary (I wasn't surprised, but I believe you repeated 100X how he'd easily be tradeable). There's not a chance in hell Bruce would even get $10M on the open market if he was an FA.
It was a tactical error by Sandy to pick up the option. It doubled down on the error that he made by trading for this bum. Hopefully he doesn't triple down on the error and give Conforto's ABs to Bruce.
RE: RE: RE: So far Szapucki, Gsellman, and Dunn all in the 100 Â
Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
There is a 0% chance Lindsay is a top 60 prospect in baseball already. 2 professional seasons he's managed to play 72 games hitting 5 homers with 6 steals. In fairness, largely due to his injuries but he was a 2nd round pick so it's not as if he was viewed as some monster prospect (and I say that as someone who really likes him). Sickels named him the #7 prospect in the Mets system last week.
due respect but you can't have it both ways and Bruce both being "underrated" and praising his bat and "defensive issues overblown" AND have extremely limited trade interest in him. The entire league is wrong on the value of Jay Bruce? Doesn't that seem unlikely?
Yeah. I just think the market is very saturated this year. Bautista, Encarnacion, Trumbo... ect. Most are signing for much less than was expected and very late in the offseason. Its just one of those years. I believe they will come calling once injuries hit in the season and things start to get shook up a bit. I also know Sandy is asking for TWO legit prospects so it's not like they just "dont want him". We dont really know whats going on behind the scenes.
hurt his knee a few years back and has yet to return to the player he was previously both with the bat and in the field. He was never a 'great" fielder but he's declined out there. Past 2 seasons he's 35th among OF in wRC+ (behind guys like Melky, Gardner and Markakis), 34th in wOBA. He's obviously not a defensive asset so teams are grading him accordingly.
RE: RE: RE: RE: So far Szapucki, Gsellman, and Dunn all in the 100 Â
Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
There is a 0% chance Lindsay is a top 60 prospect in baseball already. 2 professional seasons he's managed to play 72 games hitting 5 homers with 6 steals. In fairness, largely due to his injuries but he was a 2nd round pick so it's not as if he was viewed as some monster prospect (and I say that as someone who really likes him). Sickels named him the #7 prospect in the Mets system last week.
Dude. Im not looking to argue. lol. Law seemed pretty high on him in one of his last discussions I thought. I wouldnt have him 60.
market heats up now that Sandy has said he's keeping him.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
market heats up now that Sandy has said he's keeping him.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
Meh. They have openly shopped Bruce around the league. This "announcement" doesn't change anything. Every single writer has mentioned the Mets talking Bruce with multiple teams, it's not as if teams were hot for him and now "woah they might keep him!".
RE: RE: Bruce is a decent player and he's proven. Â
He's probably a lock for 25-34 HR, 100 RBIs.... wRC+ 110-115. Those guys dont grow on trees and I could care less about his WAR as a corner OF. His defensive ratings (not that it matters anyway) isn't even consistent. He turned in some pretty good defensive years in the last 5-6 here and there. The one thing I'll never understand is why people think the Mets are out looking to clear his salary. They didn't HAVE to pick up his option. They purposely spent 13 million to bring him back. Sandy will recoup that value via trade or he will keep him. He was never going to "shed" him.
He's been below 110 wRC 2 of the past 3 years, so how is he a "lock" to be 110-115 wRC? I'm not saying he has no chance at hitting in that range, just not sure why you think he's a "lock."
Also, these types of players, slightly above average hitters but useless in the field, do sort of grow on trees. Look at how little money these types of guys got on the open market this offseason. Sandy clearly tried to dump Bruce and no one wanted him for that salary (I wasn't surprised, but I believe you repeated 100X how he'd easily be tradeable). There's not a chance in hell Bruce would even get $10M on the open market if he was an FA.
It was a tactical error by Sandy to pick up the option. It doubled down on the error that he made by trading for this bum. Hopefully he doesn't triple down on the error and give Conforto's ABs to Bruce.
We will see if it was an error or not. The only way to prove that would be for him to get zero return, keep him all year, and Bruce have a shitty year. The chances of all of that happening are slim IMO. Bruce was coming off some injuries and had two down years in 14/15. His last 5 healthy years were 124, 119, 120, 117, 111. I expect him in that range if healthy, even if its the low end. He's only 29.
Cespedes has a 19 year old brother playing in Cuba who goes by Yoekis Cespedes Maceo. He looks JUST like Yoenis. Hit .297/.361/.460 (which actually isn't very good for Cuba) but he's only 19 so who knows?
Yes and Steamer take 3 year averages and 14/15 were Bruce's two worst years ever and he was coming off injuries. I do think Conforto's floor is Bruce but Bruce is more proven a sure thing. Im only guessing with Conforto.
market heats up now that Sandy has said he's keeping him.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
Meh. They have openly shopped Bruce around the league. This "announcement" doesn't change anything. Every single writer has mentioned the Mets talking Bruce with multiple teams, it's not as if teams were hot for him and now "woah they might keep him!".
Just trying to find a positive spin.
Sometimes the off-the-market house is more coveted than one you're actively shopping.
Plus there will be spring training injuries, just hopefully not to the Mets this year. Someone will need Bruce before the Spring ends.
I don't believe Sandy intends to go into the season with this roster (not just BP, position players too).
they may yet move Bruce (I suspect they will). I just don't think there is any impact at all on the Mets leaking they want him to be the starting RF. Teams know he was/is available. Rosenthal suggested the Mets could move him if they included salary and didn't expect much of a return aka teams aren't offering much even with him available.
on Bruce wasn't a tactical error. Not being willing and or able to add $6M for Uehara (for example) in case he can't unload Bruce was the tactical error.
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
market heats up now that Sandy has said he's keeping him.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
First of all, I never said he "wanted to keep him". I was simply saying he knew what he was doing. If he now simply wanted to shed his salary (Ive seen this suggested) he would have simply never picked up the option and went with Conforto from the beginning. He believed 13 million was a value deal for Bruce and I agree with him. I do agree with aspects of your point though. We all know this is another negotiating ploy to make it seem like he is no longer available. Sandy will still trade Bruce if he gets a suitable return obviously.
Bruce is the starter than I'd like to see Conforto playing in LV. Just very few AB's for Conforto with a lefty CF, lefty RF and Cespedes. You aren't putting Conforto in the OF for defense either. He's solid out there but you don't pull a grandy or Cespedes for him.
on Bruce wasn't a tactical error. Not being willing and or able to add $6M for Uehara (for example) in case he can't unload Bruce was the tactical error.
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
+10. The issue is being unwilling/unable to add salary before moving Bruce's salary (ZGiants if you want to argue this point I'm just not interested in dissecting Sandy's quotes. He made clear Bruce's salary impacted going after more expensive reliever options, if you disagree that is fine).
Bruce is the starter than I'd like to see Conforto playing in LV. Just very few AB's for Conforto with a lefty CF, lefty RF and Cespedes. You aren't putting Conforto in the OF for defense either. He's solid out there but you don't pull a grandy or Cespedes for him.
actually had a slightly lower FIP than Robles and I think most people would have been happy with adding a "second Robles" with a track record of being much better than that vs. what they have done so far. Kind of strange statement... you rave about Robles, if the Mets signed his twin brother with the exact same numbers you'd be raving about the move...
on Bruce wasn't a tactical error. Not being willing and or able to add $6M for Uehara (for example) in case he can't unload Bruce was the tactical error.
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
+10. The issue is being unwilling/unable to add salary before moving Bruce's salary (ZGiants if you want to argue this point I'm just not interested in dissecting Sandy's quotes. He made clear Bruce's salary impacted going after more expensive reliever options, if you disagree that is fine).
That's fine. Proof will be in the pudding. If he signs a Blevins and a Salas with Bruce still on the roster before opening day we'll know there was in fact more money and it was smoke.
still believe in Conforto but he's a bad year away from being viewed as a nobody. He's young but he's not a baby (24 this season). I think he bounces back but he's not a Buxton. Teams aren't going to give you a ton based on his upside because if he doesn't hit he's not a major leaguer and he can't hit lefties then his upside is what? An inferior Jay Bruce offensively with better (but not +) defense? The Mets have to just hope he moves on from his pull happy ways of 2016.
actually had a slightly lower FIP than Robles and I think most people would have been happy with adding a "second Robles" with a track record of being much better than that vs. what they have done so far. Kind of strange statement... you rave about Robles, if the Mets signed his twin brother with the exact same numbers you'd be raving about the move...
I dont think Robles was very good last year personally. 3.48 ERA to match a 3.56 FIP. He was a 1FWAR player. Uehara 3.45 to match a 3.51 with a 0.6 fWAR. Not a difference maker IMO and he's 42.
actually had a slightly lower FIP than Robles and I think most people would have been happy with adding a "second Robles" with a track record of being much better than that vs. what they have done so far. Kind of strange statement... you rave about Robles, if the Mets signed his twin brother with the exact same numbers you'd be raving about the move...
I dont think Robles was very good last year personally. 3.48 ERA to match a 3.56 FIP. He was a 1FWAR player. Uehara 3.45 to match a 3.51 with a 0.6 fWAR. Not a difference maker IMO and he's 42.
I'm already on record stating BBI overrates Robles thanks to his velocity. The Mets have twice relegated Robles to basically a non-factor during pennant races. He may improve (it's certainly possible) but he's an unreliable hard thrower at this point. I think they have internal options who at worst could be as good as him at some point.
But he countered them with a few bad rough patches.
I still like him as a middle reliever and think he can be a little better. He also has some value in that he's one of those guys who can throw multiple innings when we need someone to eat them up.
Like I said before, though.. I still have legit concerns about the pen.
Familia 3 run HR to what was his name on SF? a career journeyman Gillespie? was sickening.
With him suspended, who knows how Reed fares in his absence or how Familia fares when he comes back.
He (Familia) is starting to feel a lot like Armando Benitez.
And Familia was great in the PO's until the WS, but overuse I think did him in.
And it was obvious that Collins felt he didn't have many (any?) other trustworthy options in 2015.
Adding Uehara isn't adding Mariano Rivers, but it's adding another proven bullpen arm.
if the Mets can give Alejandro de Aza 6M I think Uehara, even if he's a Robles clone, is worth it, for nothing less than keeping other guys fresh and not tossing BP, plus he's got good playoff experience.
And Uehara is an example. Benoit, and others were out there too.
I still don't really think the Benitez comps are fair... Â
Familia was lights out until the WS.. and even in the WS, he got blown saves pinned on him that weren't really his fault.
Quick pitching Gordon in game 1 was 100% his fault. Those other games were tough to put on him, though.
I do completely agree that the bullpen needs more help. That would be my absolute BIGGEST focus right now. The starters and the hitters I am okay with even though we're going to be logjammed in a few spots offensively. That'll shake itself out. We have a good enough collection of bats, IMO.
took a step back last year. He racked up a ton of saves, but IMO, was fortunate not to blow more of them. His xFIP went up from 2.55 to 3.03. The metrics seem to suggest that Familia was lucky to give up so few HRs given the his GB% and the number of hard hit fly balls he gave up.
IMO, a short suspension might not be the worst thing for Familia. I feel like he was worked pretty hard last year with a lot of his innings being 25+ pitch innings. I'd like to see him try and get that BB/9 closer to 2 (instead of last year's 3.59) and hopefully he can get the K/9 over 10.
RE: I still don't really think the Benitez comps are fair... Â
Familia was lights out until the WS.. and even in the WS, he got blown saves pinned on him that weren't really his fault.
Quick pitching Gordon in game 1 was 100% his fault. Those other games were tough to put on him, though.
I do completely agree that the bullpen needs more help. That would be my absolute BIGGEST focus right now. The starters and the hitters I am okay with even though we're going to be logjammed in a few spots offensively. That'll shake itself out. We have a good enough collection of bats, IMO.
Pen has to be better.
Benitez was ridiculous in the 1999 playoffs. 9 IP, 5H, 3BB 11K's until... he had to be yanked from game 6 vs the Braves. Great until crunch time. Not saying that game was his fault, the starter for the Mets (Leiter) didn't get an out.
Benitez 2000 WS was very similar to Familia 2015 WS.
I think these guys the more they're exposed to a team or when they face a team that is patient at the plate and makes you throw strikes (like the 2000 Yankees or 2015 Royals) the less effective they get.
I have zero issue comparing Familia to Benitez. They remind me of each other. And both were/are prolific closers. Just need more mental strength and their managers need(ed) other reliable options.
I don't understand why Familia scrapped that power splitter he was throwing in 2015. That pitch was just vanishing from hitter's sightlines and they kept offering at it to no avail.
I haven't looked at the data but to my eye, he was struggling to miss bats in 2016.. it seemed like a lot of hitters were getting wood on his pitches and he was struggling to really find a put away.
With regard to the offense, I thought the Mets were much higher from August 1st on (i.e. When ceapedes and Reyes were in lineup together for fist time). Much like two seasons ago I think looking at the offensive numbers from may is not necessarily fair for what to expect this upcoming years.
With that said, Im not doom and gloom going into the season. It's been expected for virtully the entire offseason that Bruce would have to start in RF on opening day. His value can only go up trade wise. COnforto could only benefit from starting the season in LV and getting into a groove.
As painful as it will be for most to admit, resigning Ces might have been the mistake.
With regard to the offense, I thought the Mets were much higher from August 1st on (i.e. When ceapedes and Reyes were in lineup together for fist time). Much like two seasons ago I think looking at the offensive numbers from may is not necessarily fair for what to expect this upcoming years.
I dont believe this to be true at all. There is no way we couldnt add a middle reliever or two and worry about trading Bruce later. People always think there is some exact amount in a safe and once its spent its spent or you have to clear salary to bring more on. Its not the case. Sandy has said so a million times. Even used analogy's such as : "Its like a bathtub... the water goes up and it goes down... It's fluid!" Sandy also sends a lot of smoke likely to keep prices down. If teams/players think we cant spend over X, they know where they stand and cant ask for the moon. When it comes to Blevins its all about the years. Sandy doesn't think a Loogy is worth locking into a 3 year deal. I say good.
With that said, Im not doom and gloom going into the season. It's been expected for virtully the entire offseason that Bruce would have to start in RF on opening day. His value can only go up trade wise. COnforto could only benefit from starting the season in LV and getting into a groove.
As painful as it will be for most to admit, resigning Ces might have been the mistake.
Kind of an odd statement but that's insider stuff that your privy to that only confuses everyone probably. I too heard the Mets had bigger plans early in the offseason and nothing materialized but obviously what you're saying doesn't make much sense to most IMO.
1. He acknowledged payroll is higher than they like, or in Sandy's words "payroll is an issue"
2. He doesn't like the roster right now in terms of playing time flexibility. I take that to me too many he doesn't see a clean way to get everyone on the roster the right amount of PT (IMO too many LH OFers and too many MI's), but he didn't elaborate from what I read.
Sandy has acknowledge the bullpen is the main "un-finished" unit (my word) and he's said they're looking both internally and externally to finish it (in terms of openind day roster).
I'll wait and see the team the Mets field on April 3 against the Braves and I'm going to say 75% chance or more it's different than the one today.
On another topic the Mets schedule is weird, but I think primed for a good start.
they open with 16 games against the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins and 26 of their first 32 games are against that trio (Nats sandwiched in there for 6 too)
What I find somewhat weird is they don't play outside the NL East until May 8.
His season ended in mid-August after just nine starts and 52 innings due to back soreness, but before that, he showed at least mid-rotation potential, between the out pitch in the curveball and the ability to throw everything for strikes. This will be a big year for him developmentally, as he’ll be asked to throw most of a full season, and his stuff alone should dominate low-A hitters. His potential to turn into even a solid No. 3 starter would be an enormous success story for a team’s fifth-round pick."
The real issue right now is the bullpen. We really have done nothing to strengthen it and between Familia likely being suspended 30 games or so and Blevins not being back (as of yet at least) I have pretty legitimate concerns about the overall depth back there.
I also think it's a lot to expect Reed to replicate his 2016. Chances are he regresses at least slightly.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
Quote:
Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
He's been below 110 wRC 2 of the past 3 years, so how is he a "lock" to be 110-115 wRC? I'm not saying he has no chance at hitting in that range, just not sure why you think he's a "lock."
Also, these types of players, slightly above average hitters but useless in the field, do sort of grow on trees. Look at how little money these types of guys got on the open market this offseason. Sandy clearly tried to dump Bruce and no one wanted him for that salary (I wasn't surprised, but I believe you repeated 100X how he'd easily be tradeable). There's not a chance in hell Bruce would even get $10M on the open market if he was an FA.
It was a tactical error by Sandy to pick up the option. It doubled down on the error that he made by trading for this bum. Hopefully he doesn't triple down on the error and give Conforto's ABs to Bruce.
Quote:
In comment 13338892 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
There is a 0% chance Lindsay is a top 60 prospect in baseball already. 2 professional seasons he's managed to play 72 games hitting 5 homers with 6 steals. In fairness, largely due to his injuries but he was a 2nd round pick so it's not as if he was viewed as some monster prospect (and I say that as someone who really likes him). Sickels named him the #7 prospect in the Mets system last week.
Yeah. I just think the market is very saturated this year. Bautista, Encarnacion, Trumbo... ect. Most are signing for much less than was expected and very late in the offseason. Its just one of those years. I believe they will come calling once injuries hit in the season and things start to get shook up a bit. I also know Sandy is asking for TWO legit prospects so it's not like they just "dont want him". We dont really know whats going on behind the scenes.
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In comment 13338906 DanMetroMan said:
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In comment 13338892 ZGiants98 said:
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Rosario and Smith are locks with Rosario possibly top 10 overall.
Well that's it. There is no "so far". 5 is a very solid number though. Can't complain about that. Wish they had more position players with real upside in the system but that's what the draft is for.
I thought maybe an outside chance Lindsay would crack the list but I guess not.
There is a 0% chance Lindsay is a top 60 prospect in baseball already. 2 professional seasons he's managed to play 72 games hitting 5 homers with 6 steals. In fairness, largely due to his injuries but he was a 2nd round pick so it's not as if he was viewed as some monster prospect (and I say that as someone who really likes him). Sickels named him the #7 prospect in the Mets system last week.
Dude. Im not looking to argue. lol. Law seemed pretty high on him in one of his last discussions I thought. I wouldnt have him 60.
Michael Conorto 113wRC+
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
Meh. They have openly shopped Bruce around the league. This "announcement" doesn't change anything. Every single writer has mentioned the Mets talking Bruce with multiple teams, it's not as if teams were hot for him and now "woah they might keep him!".
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He's probably a lock for 25-34 HR, 100 RBIs.... wRC+ 110-115. Those guys dont grow on trees and I could care less about his WAR as a corner OF. His defensive ratings (not that it matters anyway) isn't even consistent. He turned in some pretty good defensive years in the last 5-6 here and there. The one thing I'll never understand is why people think the Mets are out looking to clear his salary. They didn't HAVE to pick up his option. They purposely spent 13 million to bring him back. Sandy will recoup that value via trade or he will keep him. He was never going to "shed" him.
He's been below 110 wRC 2 of the past 3 years, so how is he a "lock" to be 110-115 wRC? I'm not saying he has no chance at hitting in that range, just not sure why you think he's a "lock."
Also, these types of players, slightly above average hitters but useless in the field, do sort of grow on trees. Look at how little money these types of guys got on the open market this offseason. Sandy clearly tried to dump Bruce and no one wanted him for that salary (I wasn't surprised, but I believe you repeated 100X how he'd easily be tradeable). There's not a chance in hell Bruce would even get $10M on the open market if he was an FA.
It was a tactical error by Sandy to pick up the option. It doubled down on the error that he made by trading for this bum. Hopefully he doesn't triple down on the error and give Conforto's ABs to Bruce.
We will see if it was an error or not. The only way to prove that would be for him to get zero return, keep him all year, and Bruce have a shitty year. The chances of all of that happening are slim IMO. Bruce was coming off some injuries and had two down years in 14/15. His last 5 healthy years were 124, 119, 120, 117, 111. I expect him in that range if healthy, even if its the low end. He's only 29.
Rosario comes in at #3 at SS (Torres #1)
Michael Conorto 113wRC+
Yes and Steamer take 3 year averages and 14/15 were Bruce's two worst years ever and he was coming off injuries. I do think Conforto's floor is Bruce but Bruce is more proven a sure thing. Im only guessing with Conforto.
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market heats up now that Sandy has said he's keeping him.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
Meh. They have openly shopped Bruce around the league. This "announcement" doesn't change anything. Every single writer has mentioned the Mets talking Bruce with multiple teams, it's not as if teams were hot for him and now "woah they might keep him!".
Just trying to find a positive spin.
Sometimes the off-the-market house is more coveted than one you're actively shopping.
Plus there will be spring training injuries, just hopefully not to the Mets this year. Someone will need Bruce before the Spring ends.
I don't believe Sandy intends to go into the season with this roster (not just BP, position players too).
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
And to say Sandy wanted to keep Bruce and that's why he picked up the option is sort of silly. That's like saying Sandy expected Alejandro De Aza to be the starting/platoon CF last year even after re-signing Ces.
Bruce was insurance against the Mets not landing Cespedes.
Sandy definitely thought he'd have an easier time unloading him, which was pretty clearly the plan IMO.
First of all, I never said he "wanted to keep him". I was simply saying he knew what he was doing. If he now simply wanted to shed his salary (Ive seen this suggested) he would have simply never picked up the option and went with Conforto from the beginning. He believed 13 million was a value deal for Bruce and I agree with him. I do agree with aspects of your point though. We all know this is another negotiating ploy to make it seem like he is no longer available. Sandy will still trade Bruce if he gets a suitable return obviously.
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
+10. The issue is being unwilling/unable to add salary before moving Bruce's salary (ZGiants if you want to argue this point I'm just not interested in dissecting Sandy's quotes. He made clear Bruce's salary impacted going after more expensive reliever options, if you disagree that is fine).
+1
I'd hate to trade him, but if an 8th inning guy with closing experience and a prospect were the return it might be worth it.
Not sure what value Conforto has after last seasons debacle.
I'd hate to trade him, but if an 8th inning guy with closing experience and a prospect were the return it might be worth it.
Not sure what value Conforto has after last seasons debacle.
You won't get fair value. Teams will be looking to buy low on his upside.
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on Bruce wasn't a tactical error. Not being willing and or able to add $6M for Uehara (for example) in case he can't unload Bruce was the tactical error.
If the Mets didn't retain Cespedes, which was at least a decent possibility, Bruce would be important to the lineup.
+10. The issue is being unwilling/unable to add salary before moving Bruce's salary (ZGiants if you want to argue this point I'm just not interested in dissecting Sandy's quotes. He made clear Bruce's salary impacted going after more expensive reliever options, if you disagree that is fine).
That's fine. Proof will be in the pudding. If he signs a Blevins and a Salas with Bruce still on the roster before opening day we'll know there was in fact more money and it was smoke.
I dont think Robles was very good last year personally. 3.48 ERA to match a 3.56 FIP. He was a 1FWAR player. Uehara 3.45 to match a 3.51 with a 0.6 fWAR. Not a difference maker IMO and he's 42.
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actually had a slightly lower FIP than Robles and I think most people would have been happy with adding a "second Robles" with a track record of being much better than that vs. what they have done so far. Kind of strange statement... you rave about Robles, if the Mets signed his twin brother with the exact same numbers you'd be raving about the move...
I dont think Robles was very good last year personally. 3.48 ERA to match a 3.56 FIP. He was a 1FWAR player. Uehara 3.45 to match a 3.51 with a 0.6 fWAR. Not a difference maker IMO and he's 42.
I'm already on record stating BBI overrates Robles thanks to his velocity. The Mets have twice relegated Robles to basically a non-factor during pennant races. He may improve (it's certainly possible) but he's an unreliable hard thrower at this point. I think they have internal options who at worst could be as good as him at some point.
I still like him as a middle reliever and think he can be a little better. He also has some value in that he's one of those guys who can throw multiple innings when we need someone to eat them up.
Like I said before, though.. I still have legit concerns about the pen.
I'd make it more an emphasis than some people.
Familia 3 run HR to what was his name on SF? a career journeyman Gillespie? was sickening.
With him suspended, who knows how Reed fares in his absence or how Familia fares when he comes back.
He (Familia) is starting to feel a lot like Armando Benitez.
And Familia was great in the PO's until the WS, but overuse I think did him in.
And it was obvious that Collins felt he didn't have many (any?) other trustworthy options in 2015.
Adding Uehara isn't adding Mariano Rivers, but it's adding another proven bullpen arm.
if the Mets can give Alejandro de Aza 6M I think Uehara, even if he's a Robles clone, is worth it, for nothing less than keeping other guys fresh and not tossing BP, plus he's got good playoff experience.
And Uehara is an example. Benoit, and others were out there too.
Quick pitching Gordon in game 1 was 100% his fault. Those other games were tough to put on him, though.
I do completely agree that the bullpen needs more help. That would be my absolute BIGGEST focus right now. The starters and the hitters I am okay with even though we're going to be logjammed in a few spots offensively. That'll shake itself out. We have a good enough collection of bats, IMO.
Pen has to be better.
IMO, a short suspension might not be the worst thing for Familia. I feel like he was worked pretty hard last year with a lot of his innings being 25+ pitch innings. I'd like to see him try and get that BB/9 closer to 2 (instead of last year's 3.59) and hopefully he can get the K/9 over 10.
Quick pitching Gordon in game 1 was 100% his fault. Those other games were tough to put on him, though.
I do completely agree that the bullpen needs more help. That would be my absolute BIGGEST focus right now. The starters and the hitters I am okay with even though we're going to be logjammed in a few spots offensively. That'll shake itself out. We have a good enough collection of bats, IMO.
Pen has to be better.
Benitez was ridiculous in the 1999 playoffs. 9 IP, 5H, 3BB 11K's until... he had to be yanked from game 6 vs the Braves. Great until crunch time. Not saying that game was his fault, the starter for the Mets (Leiter) didn't get an out.
Benitez 2000 WS was very similar to Familia 2015 WS.
I think these guys the more they're exposed to a team or when they face a team that is patient at the plate and makes you throw strikes (like the 2000 Yankees or 2015 Royals) the less effective they get.
I have zero issue comparing Familia to Benitez. They remind me of each other. And both were/are prolific closers. Just need more mental strength and their managers need(ed) other reliable options.
I haven't looked at the data but to my eye, he was struggling to miss bats in 2016.. it seemed like a lot of hitters were getting wood on his pitches and he was struggling to really find a put away.