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NFT: question for Mets fans - Matt Harvey -

Mike in St. Louis : 1/23/2017 2:12 pm
coming off serious surgery...everything sounds optimistic but what is the reality? will the Mets move him to the BP? will he start the season on the DL?
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lol  
DanMetroMan : 1/25/2017 11:12 am : link
sorry wrong thread
RE: RE: RE: Uehara  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 11:28 am : link
In comment 13338974 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 13338972 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


In comment 13338960 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


actually had a slightly lower FIP than Robles and I think most people would have been happy with adding a "second Robles" with a track record of being much better than that vs. what they have done so far. Kind of strange statement... you rave about Robles, if the Mets signed his twin brother with the exact same numbers you'd be raving about the move...



I dont think Robles was very good last year personally. 3.48 ERA to match a 3.56 FIP. He was a 1FWAR player. Uehara 3.45 to match a 3.51 with a 0.6 fWAR. Not a difference maker IMO and he's 42.



I'm already on record stating BBI overrates Robles thanks to his velocity. The Mets have twice relegated Robles to basically a non-factor during pennant races. He may improve (it's certainly possible) but he's an unreliable hard thrower at this point. I think they have internal options who at worst could be as good as him at some point.


I agree with this completely and its actually my exact rational for why I wasn't frothing at the mouth for a Uehara for 6 mill. The difference between literally "any" reliever and somebody like Robles/Euhara and your likely talking tiny fractions of a win.
I just dont know what your supposed to do  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 11:33 am : link
about Familia. Yes, he's blown crucial games in two postseason runs now but statistically he is still one of the best around and a true beast overall. He's only been to the postseason twice so you hope things would get better going forward. I just dont know what the alternative is. Euhara isn't saving us in those postseason games that's for sure. It would still come down to Familia. Do you trade him and go after another big name guy as your closer? That's really the only thing that would have made sense and I just cant see it. He's our closer for better or for worse.
If your building your team for fractions  
pjcas18 : 1/25/2017 11:34 am : link
of wins that philosophy might be sound, but if you want to win in the playoffs, you can't go in with the bullpen the Mets had this year.

If you want to wait until the deadline and make the move then you're looking at prospects. Who wouldn't trade signing Miller to the deal the Yankees did vs trading top end talent for him?

In November when you're wondering what happened, you can remember back to the fractions of wins that were unimportant in the off-season.

Cubs and Indians two biggest deadline acquisitions? Chapman and Miller. Coincidence?

Royals biggest asset (arguably?) Bullpen, they shortened every damn game to 6 innings, and it's where they beat the Mets.

not sure how much more evidence needs to be presented for people to understand the shift, pay now or pay more later.
Holy shit.  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 11:36 am : link
"cant go into the playoffs with bullpen the Mets had last year".

LOL. They had the second best bullpen in baseball. What a joke.
Our closer blew the game  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 11:38 am : link
and our offense couldn't score jack. There's literally nothing a better bullpen would have solved. As for mid-season additions... we acquired Salas for peanuts. Im not talking about trading the farm for a Miller. We already have two elite back-end arms.
RE: Holy shit.  
pjcas18 : 1/25/2017 11:39 am : link
In comment 13339201 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
"cant go into the playoffs with bullpen the Mets had last year".

LOL. They had the second best bullpen in baseball. What a joke.


How did that work out? Second best bullpen in baseball gave up a 3R HR in a tie game top of the 9th to lose it.

keep pumping those regular season stats and reliever overuse. and continue to lose. Playoffs are a different game.
RE: RE: Holy shit.  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 11:44 am : link
In comment 13339209 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 13339201 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


"cant go into the playoffs with bullpen the Mets had last year".

LOL. They had the second best bullpen in baseball. What a joke.



How did that work out? Second best bullpen in baseball gave up a 3R HR in a tie game top of the 9th to lose it.

keep pumping those regular season stats and reliever overuse. and continue to lose. Playoffs are a different game.


Wow. Familia gave up all 3 runs. How in the heavenly of fucks was Familia not pitching in the 9th there? How was Euhara preventing that from happening? An elite arm, one of the best in the game, gave up runs, and your blaming what exactly? That we shouldn't have used our elite option there?
I guess good players are always expected to perform  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 11:47 am : link
at every moment no matter what. Guess we shouldn't have signed Cespedes last year since he didnt do anything in the postseason either. Didn't work out for us. Oh well.
See you're missing the point  
pjcas18 : 1/25/2017 11:49 am : link
I'm talking about a pattern of overuse because of a lack of other options.

you think the bullpen is fine or will just magically sort itself out, I think the Mets will be forced to overpay at the deadline if they make no other moves, if options are there, and bullpen will be an Achilles heel in the playoffs.

While you spout "they're the 2nd best bullpen in baseball" as you say oh well let's hope the starters are healthy in 2018.

Who gives a F if they come up small in the post-season?

I'm not a Braves fan.
healthy in 2018?  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 11:51 am : link
I dont even know what your rambling anymore. You must be having a bad day. Hope you feel better PJ.
I feel fine  
pjcas18 : 1/25/2017 11:54 am : link
I feel the bullpen is a liability. You don't.

let's leave it there.

No reason to start insulting anyone.
Totally agree PJ re: difference btwn reg season BP & postseason BP  
Eric on Li : 1/25/2017 11:57 am : link
Cleveland and Chicago aren't in the WS without Chapman/Miller and anyone who would argue otherwise is a fool. I'm basically resigned to the fact that we're going to have to give up a prospect in our top 10 that we all really like to make a mid-season move.

The equally silly risk we're taking is a desperation move whenever Familia is suspended, as opposed to signing someone who can close like Ziegler (or Holland).

Forget Bruce, the biggest mistake Sandy made this offseason was QO'ing Walker. That $17M should have been invested in the BP if the budget is this tight.
Got it.  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 12:02 pm : link
1 bullpen in baseball... acceptable.
2-30 bullpen in baseball... liability.
I'm not even talking about the regular season pen  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 12:07 pm : link
We had two elite arms (both in the top 6 overall) ready to go in the postseason. Unless people are still obsessed with the Yankees going after three closers one time (and blowing it up) I really have no idea what people are wanting or expecting. Euhara's season last year was dime a dozen. We have a host of relievers that likely can replicate him for free. So are we taking about adding more "elite closers" or just solid depth guys. Major difference.
RE: Got it.  
pjcas18 : 1/25/2017 12:14 pm : link
In comment 13339241 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
1 bullpen in baseball... acceptable.
2-30 bullpen in baseball... liability.


No, you still don't get it. but whatever, I'm not debating it any further.
Yeah yeah...  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 12:15 pm : link
Regular season stats don't mater. Postseason is all that matters. I guess you need three elite closers minimum or you're screwed since that's what everyone is doing now (except they aren't)
And for the record  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 12:21 pm : link
I have zero issues with people wanting Blevins back (or another acceptable LOOGY) or another late inning option since Familia is missing a month. That's reasonable. I just don't think it's effecting much in the long run. It's more icing than anything. The difference between a Rosebloom or a Edgin (even if they are below average) and Blevins is likely a few runs for the entire season.
Last year they had 3 guys they felt comfortable with in 8th/9th  
Eric on Li : 1/25/2017 12:26 pm : link
Reed, Blevins, Familia. Salas pitched well and was starting to become a 4th option, and they were actively trying to acquire that 4th option during July.

At the moment we have 2 of those guys under contract, with the guy who threw most of our 9th innings likely to be suspended for 10-20% of the season, and no replacements have been brought in. At the beginning of the offseason Sandy said they need a late game option and that's undeniably still true today. Robles or someone else could step up but that's a pretty big unknown. There's a reason they've shied away from him down the stretch both of the last 2 years.
Holland  
DanMetroMan : 1/25/2017 2:25 pm : link
joins the Rockies, 1 year deal vested 2nd year option.
Cespedes  
DanMetroMan : 1/25/2017 2:42 pm : link
looked heavy last year before ST as well so I'm not concerned but jeez..
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Cespedes  
Shecky : 1/25/2017 2:48 pm : link
In comment 13339426 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
looked heavy last year before ST as well so I'm not concerned but jeez.. Link - ( New Window )


From Lion King to Panda? Lol
The Mets might seriously be considering Wheeler  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 3:59 pm : link
in the pen to start the season. Not sure I agree with it but Im guessing he would surely be a late inning option while Familia is out. Might be a good way to conserve his innings some before sending him to Vegas to stretch out again. Or maybe he does so well they decide to keep him there.

Also, Edgin is out of options which is not something I considered before. Not a huge fan, but he was still was decent getting lefties out.

Pen would be

Familia
Reed
Wheeler
Smoker
Edgin
Robles
Sewald/Gilmartin/Goeddel/Lugo
Hate  
DanMetroMan : 1/25/2017 4:23 pm : link
Wheeler in the pen. Why limit Terry Collins like that? Either Wheeler will have strict usage limits (which hurts the team) or Wheeler coming off 2 missed seasons is going to be forced to be available multiple times per week, multiple days in a row (like any other reliever). Wheeler should open the season in AA.

Thor, DeGrom, Harvey, Matz, Gsellman would be my rotation and at some point in the season I would move to a 6 man rotation (IF all 6 were healthy at the same time), I'd still consider moving to a 6 with Lugo.
Wheeler in BP doesn't seem like a great fit considering  
Eric on Li : 1/25/2017 4:27 pm : link
1. control was never his strong suit
2. year after TJS/2 years off usually has biggest impact on control

I'd be fine with 6 man rotation at any point this year (or any other inning saving measures needed for ANY of the SP's). Only hesitation with starting Lugo in the rotation is that he might be the best suited to grow into an important role in the BP. I've gotta say it's very disappointing we couldn't have at least rolled the dice on some combo of Holland, Uehara, Ziegler, Blevins, etc. what's the worst that would have happened? Dump them like Bastardo last year?
RE: Wheeler in BP doesn't seem like a great fit considering  
DanMetroMan : 1/25/2017 4:31 pm : link
In comment 13339628 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
1. control was never his strong suit
2. year after TJS/2 years off usually has biggest impact on control

I'd be fine with 6 man rotation at any point this year (or any other inning saving measures needed for ANY of the SP's). Only hesitation with starting Lugo in the rotation is that he might be the best suited to grow into an important role in the BP. I've gotta say it's very disappointing we couldn't have at least rolled the dice on some combo of Holland, Uehara, Ziegler, Blevins, etc. what's the worst that would have happened? Dump them like Bastardo last year?


I feel like if your biggest concern is Lugo has been so good out of the pen that you are concerned with moving him to the rotation... it's a damn good problem to have. Still hoping for a Blanton type. In all honesty, the only way Wheeler to the pen makes a lot of sense is if they have fully given up on him being a SP, otherwise he needs innings. He may or may not be successful out of the pen but he's not some guaranteed stud reliever given his command. If he's just cannon fodder at this point so be it. But if you have high hopes for him then opening in the pen is a bad move. Finishing the season in the pen to limit innings, zero issue with it.
My expectations for Wheeler  
pjcas18 : 1/25/2017 4:42 pm : link
are much less than Harvey. Just for reference, have many pitchers missed two full seasons and come back successfully?

I would be more shocked if Wheeler was a contributor than if he was hit with a career ending injury in spring training. Not trying to be negative, but just looking at the reality.

The guy I want to see get his act together is Montero. Realize it's beyond a long such as this point, but no one has been able to explain to me what happened.

Such good command in the minors - even up to Binghamton gone to crap in AAA and the majors. Warthen should make it his job to fix Montero.

I don't think he could have been any worse the past two years.

I really believe Vegas (and poor work ethic?) messed him up.

Fangraphs had a good scouting report on him after his 2015 spot start.
We (Mets fans) know better than most you can never have enough SP  
Eric on Li : 1/25/2017 4:44 pm : link
so yeah, I'm sure Lugo will end up starting at least a handful of games this year. I'm just more worried about who closes when Familia's suspended after Reed has pitched the first 2 games of a series. Even if they're comfortable with Robles in that role, who is pitching the 8th? Who's coming in when there's a man on and Murphy/Harper are coming up? Those are the moments that win or lose games.
Ynoa to me has a better shot  
ZGiants98 : 1/25/2017 7:42 pm : link
at being back-end depth/long man depth than Montero does and he throws harder so he at least is more interesting to me.

I dont know what's going to happen to Wheeler but Pj's point about not many hard throwing starters coming back after a 2 year lay off might be exactly why they are giving up on him as a starter (not saying they are/hypothetical).

Smoltz didn't have the best control when he started out either.

It will be interesting how it all plays out. If he looks healthy in Spring Training without much issue I keep him as a starter. But maybe medically he'll never be a 180-200 inning guy again. Who knows?
My guess was Smith around 30 and Rosario top 10  
ZGiants98 : 1/26/2017 8:34 am : link
Dom Smith is #29 on Keith Law's minors list...here's the write-up

"I’ve written since Smith was an amateur that he has raw power, but in his first two seasons in full-season ball he hit just seven homers, as playing his home games in very pitcher-friendly parks led him to focus on going the other way. In 2016, he started pulling the ball more, and hit 14 homers, more than doubling his career total to date, along with 29 doubles to finish with a .302/.367/.457 line. Smith is an extraordinarily disciplined, calm hitter, striking out in just 13 percent of his plate appearances last year, showing an advanced two-strike approach and willingness to use the whole field. In addition to just generally pulling the ball more in 2016, Smith also got the ball in the air more often, which is critical to boosting his batting average since he’s a well below-average runner.

Smith is an above-average defender at first whose 70 arm is sort of wasted at the position, and has worked this offseason on improving his conditioning, which was a concern last year as he was playing at what I’ll politely call the top end of the acceptable range for his weight. There’s still untapped power here, but given the progress Smith has already made in games this year, I expect 20-plus homers from him this year or next along with the same high averages and doubles totals he posted in 2015 and 2016."
If Smith is a perennial  
ZGiants98 : 1/26/2017 8:37 am : link
20 HR guy like Law suggests in the next couple of seasons combined with a high average and a ton of doubles he'll be an all-star.
I should have said  
ZGiants98 : 1/26/2017 8:38 am : link
"patient approach" as well.
Perfect  
DanMetroMan : 1/26/2017 9:29 am : link
timing with Duda's FA. Lets hope Smith has a good year where there is no question he's ready and not some "okay" year where we have to either go with him or sign some turd for a year.
.  
ZGiants98 : 1/26/2017 9:45 am : link
Ken Rosenthal ✔ @Ken_Rosenthal
Among FA relievers whom #Mets are considering, per sources: Sergio Romo and Joe Smith. And of course, Jerry Blevins. Looking at all of ‘em.
RE: Perfect  
ZGiants98 : 1/26/2017 9:46 am : link
In comment 13340181 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
timing with Duda's FA. Lets hope Smith has a good year where there is no question he's ready and not some "okay" year where we have to either go with him or sign some turd for a year.


It's a shame we couldn't expose him to a little RF assuming he can finally keep the weight down. I know it wont happen but a 70 arm? Jesus.
I'd be happy with any of those guys to be honest  
Eric on Li : 1/26/2017 9:49 am : link
Blevins on a 2 year and 1 of the righties on a 1 year deal would be a nice way to end the offseason heading into ST.
RE: RE: Perfect  
DanMetroMan : 1/26/2017 9:52 am : link
In comment 13340199 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 13340181 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


timing with Duda's FA. Lets hope Smith has a good year where there is no question he's ready and not some "okay" year where we have to either go with him or sign some turd for a year.



It's a shame we couldn't expose him to a little RF assuming he can finally keep the weight down. I know it wont happen but a 70 arm? Jesus.


He was considered a 1b only even dating back to HS so I don't think that would be an option. The last place you want to start a player is 1b unless there is no chance he can play another position so pretty clearly the Mets saw him as 1b only.
Joe  
DanMetroMan : 1/26/2017 9:56 am : link
Smith terrifies me. Sidearmer with back problems generally = disaster. I'd much prefer Romo
Bring back the best young pitcher in baseball!  
arcarsenal : 1/26/2017 9:56 am : link
.
(Kidding)  
arcarsenal : 1/26/2017 9:57 am : link
.
I read right when the off-season  
pjcas18 : 1/26/2017 10:02 am : link
started and no relievers had gone anywhere the Mets expected to part ways with Blevins.

What was the reason for that?

I just assumed they wanted to upgrade. He was supposed to be a LOOGY and last year lefties hit better against him than righties and he had a pretty bad second half.

RE: I read right when the off-season  
DanMetroMan : 1/26/2017 10:08 am : link
In comment 13340216 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
started and no relievers had gone anywhere the Mets expected to part ways with Blevins.

What was the reason for that?

I just assumed they wanted to upgrade. He was supposed to be a LOOGY and last year lefties hit better against him than righties and he had a pretty bad second half.


Wasn't at all about upgrading. Blevins was asking for 3 years 21 million when the off-season opened and the Mets weren't willing to go there. Dunn got 19 so Blevins ask didn't seem crazy at all at the time.
In  
DanMetroMan : 1/26/2017 10:11 am : link
fact, Blevins was arguably the #2 best lefty non-closer available after Brett Cecil (who got big money), inferior Rzepczynski got 2 years 11. There really was no Blevins upgrade to be had. He's a very solid pitcher, Collins was forced to overuse him. Giving away Alvarez in hindsight looks like a poor decision.
RE: In  
pjcas18 : 1/26/2017 10:13 am : link
In comment 13340237 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
fact, Blevins was arguably the #2 best lefty non-closer available after Brett Cecil (who got big money), inferior Rzepczynski got 2 years 11. There really was no Blevins upgrade to be had. He's a very solid pitcher, Collins was forced to overuse him. Giving away Alvarez in hindsight looks like a poor decision.


He was great 1st half and great against righties, not so much as a loogy and his second half was mediocre.

so it was just to save $$?

I don't get quibbling over 2-3M per year on short team deals like this.
RE: RE: In  
DanMetroMan : 1/26/2017 10:15 am : link
In comment 13340239 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 13340237 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


fact, Blevins was arguably the #2 best lefty non-closer available after Brett Cecil (who got big money), inferior Rzepczynski got 2 years 11. There really was no Blevins upgrade to be had. He's a very solid pitcher, Collins was forced to overuse him. Giving away Alvarez in hindsight looks like a poor decision.



He was great 1st half and great against righties, not so much as a loogy and his second half was mediocre.

so it was just to save $$?

I don't get quibbling over 2-3M per year on short team deals like this.


100% about his contract not performance.

"The Mets really like Jerry Blevins and would prefer to have a bona fide veteran lefty specialist next season in addition to southpaws Josh Edgin and Josh Smoker. Still, team officials are expecting Blevins to get a sizable multiyear offer elsewhere, which may price him out of the Mets' spending appetite for a left-handed reliever. Blevins, 33, is eligible for free agency this offseason after earning $4 million in 2016. He produced a 2.79 ERA in 73 relief appearances. Lefty batters actually hit .255 against Blevins this past season, while righties hit .182.

Adam Rubin, ESPN Staff Writer
That's what I was getting at  
pjcas18 : 1/26/2017 10:23 am : link
if it were performance I could understand it.

but he made $4M last year, and the Mets won't give him $6-7 per to lock him up for 3 years, I'd even start at 3 years 16M or something like that.

That should be short money and if they're ok with his performance, it should be a trivial under the radar signing IMO.
RE: That's what I was getting at  
DanMetroMan : 1/26/2017 10:25 am : link
In comment 13340256 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
if it were performance I could understand it.

but he made $4M last year, and the Mets won't give him $6-7 per to lock him up for 3 years, I'd even start at 3 years 16M or something like that.

That should be short money and if they're ok with his performance, it should be a trivial under the radar signing IMO.


I'm with you. Not looking to argue budget/spending stuff this season because it becomes tedious but yeah at the end of the day not bringing in/keeping decent guys now usually results in having to give up talent later.
RE: That's what I was getting at  
ZGiants98 : 1/26/2017 10:39 am : link
In comment 13340256 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
if it were performance I could understand it.

but he made $4M last year, and the Mets won't give him $6-7 per to lock him up for 3 years, I'd even start at 3 years 16M or something like that.

That should be short money and if they're ok with his performance, it should be a trivial under the radar signing IMO.


It's about the years. Sandy doesn't want to go 3 years on a LOOGY. If Blevins wanted 6-7 million on a one year deal it would be done IMO. My guess is Sandy has one year with maybe an option on the table.... Possibly willing to go 2 MAX. Blevins is still asking for 3.
Id be fine with Boone Logan  
ZGiants98 : 1/26/2017 10:41 am : link
too. He was just as good as Blevins last year in a tougher environment.
Interesting read  
ZGiants98 : 1/26/2017 10:45 am : link
Looks Like Matz wont be throwing as hard this year purposely.
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