to see these before the season and then again after and see how true it was.
For example, teams with Carolina on their schedule in August 2016 had a high SOS weight for that game, but Carolina sucked so it over estimated their SOS.
Teams with Oakland didn't have a high SOS, but Oakland was good so it underestimated their SOS.
Anyway, my point is I'm not sure pre-season SOS means much, at the end looking back it might though.
I believe it's not always who you play but when you play them.
Green Bay was a different team in the 2nd half of the season than they were in the first.
Minnesota, same thing.
There is also the difference home and away.
New Orleans is the best example of this over a longer period of time. Detroit was a great example this season. Tough at their place. Nothing to worry about when they are on the road.
to see these before the season and then again after and see how true it was.
For example, teams with Carolina on their schedule in August 2016 had a high SOS weight for that game, but Carolina sucked so it over estimated their SOS.
Teams with Oakland didn't have a high SOS, but Oakland was good so it underestimated their SOS.
Anyway, my point is I'm not sure pre-season SOS means much, at the end looking back it might though.
It was pretty true this past season. Of the 6 teams with the easiest SOS, 5 made the playoffs. The NYG and Cowboys were 2 of them. The Bears were the exception.
to see these before the season and then again after and see how true it was.
For example, teams with Carolina on their schedule in August 2016 had a high SOS weight for that game, but Carolina sucked so it over estimated their SOS.
Teams with Oakland didn't have a high SOS, but Oakland was good so it underestimated their SOS.
Anyway, my point is I'm not sure pre-season SOS means much, at the end looking back it might though.
It was pretty true this past season. Of the 6 teams with the easiest SOS, 5 made the playoffs. The NYG and Cowboys were 2 of them. The Bears were the exception.
But Atlanta had the hardest schedule coming in to 2016 and they went to the Super Bowl.
Patriots had the 9th hardest (so much for a cakewalk AFC East) and they won the SB.
two of the top 10 hardest schedules were in the SB.
6 of the 12 playoff teams came from the top half of the SOS (in terms of hardest to easiest).
My point was how would it look if in January they redid it, based on win %, etc. put out what the SOS really looked like. Pretty sure Atlanta wouldn't have the hardest schedule when they looked back on it if you know what I mean. 2016 SOS in April 2016 - ( New Window )
The whole NFC East is bunched fairly close together
exception. There are teams that are traditionally very difficult to beat in their house, so it's important, for example to get Seattle in NY, imv..Perhaps that's not SOS per se, but beating Seattle in your place must play some kind of role in this, yes?
RE: I don't pay any attention to it; never will, with the one
exception. There are teams that are traditionally very difficult to beat in their house, so it's important, for example to get Seattle in NY, imv..Perhaps that's not SOS per se, but beating Seattle in your place must play some kind of role in this, yes?
I agree. Also remember most NFL teams have a 20-25% roster turnover from one year to the next.
I'd guess that over many many games, SOS would show to be statistically true (that it is a valid factor, however minor).
is kind of like playing Strat-O-Matc Baseballl in the 70s. The problem with the game is you replayed the previous season. I mean if you have the Browns and Rams, you have a pretty good idea that you should win those. But how do you gauge the Chargers? Bosa might be a one-man wrecking ball against your statue-like QB and Rivers might throw for 400.
Form did hold up for the Giants last season. The marks played like marks but it doesn't always work that way.
For example, teams with Carolina on their schedule in August 2016 had a high SOS weight for that game, but Carolina sucked so it over estimated their SOS.
Teams with Oakland didn't have a high SOS, but Oakland was good so it underestimated their SOS.
Anyway, my point is I'm not sure pre-season SOS means much, at the end looking back it might though.
I believe it's not always who you play but when you play them.
Green Bay was a different team in the 2nd half of the season than they were in the first.
Minnesota, same thing.
There is also the difference home and away.
New Orleans is the best example of this over a longer period of time. Detroit was a great example this season. Tough at their place. Nothing to worry about when they are on the road.
For example, teams with Carolina on their schedule in August 2016 had a high SOS weight for that game, but Carolina sucked so it over estimated their SOS.
Teams with Oakland didn't have a high SOS, but Oakland was good so it underestimated their SOS.
Anyway, my point is I'm not sure pre-season SOS means much, at the end looking back it might though.
It was pretty true this past season. Of the 6 teams with the easiest SOS, 5 made the playoffs. The NYG and Cowboys were 2 of them. The Bears were the exception.
Quote:
to see these before the season and then again after and see how true it was.
For example, teams with Carolina on their schedule in August 2016 had a high SOS weight for that game, but Carolina sucked so it over estimated their SOS.
Teams with Oakland didn't have a high SOS, but Oakland was good so it underestimated their SOS.
Anyway, my point is I'm not sure pre-season SOS means much, at the end looking back it might though.
It was pretty true this past season. Of the 6 teams with the easiest SOS, 5 made the playoffs. The NYG and Cowboys were 2 of them. The Bears were the exception.
But Atlanta had the hardest schedule coming in to 2016 and they went to the Super Bowl.
Patriots had the 9th hardest (so much for a cakewalk AFC East) and they won the SB.
two of the top 10 hardest schedules were in the SB.
6 of the 12 playoff teams came from the top half of the SOS (in terms of hardest to easiest).
My point was how would it look if in January they redid it, based on win %, etc. put out what the SOS really looked like. Pretty sure Atlanta wouldn't have the hardest schedule when they looked back on it if you know what I mean.
2016 SOS in April 2016 - ( New Window )
I agree. Also remember most NFL teams have a 20-25% roster turnover from one year to the next.
I'd guess that over many many games, SOS would show to be statistically true (that it is a valid factor, however minor).
Form did hold up for the Giants last season. The marks played like marks but it doesn't always work that way.