Admittedly this is a vast subject, but I'd like to address a particular aspect. And that is, how does an organization ideally utilize players from all seven rounds of the draft?
The conventional wisdom is that the first round selection should be a productive starter in his first year, and ideally a Pro Bowler in his subsequent years. Second and third rounders should be able to contribute, but not necessarily start, in their first year. Nevertheless, they should become backbone contributors during their tenure.
That leaves the 5-7 rounders. How should a team approach these to extract the most benefit going forward? Are they developmental candidates, backups, draft trade options, or something else. I don't have any figures in front of me, but I think I can safely say that, except for an anomaly or two (Ahmed Bradshaw comes to mind), these later round picks have not been very productive for our team, and probably not for other teams as well. So, what do you think is the best option for late rounders?
So it really depends on where your team is at, imo.
Day three players tend to be in one or more of the following categories:
(1) Players who have fallen because of character concerns. This year that included Chad Kelly. Somebody will probably draft him on day three, especially since he's a QB.
(2) Players who have fallen because of injuries, especially if they are recent.
(3) Players who have only played football for a few years.
(4) Players from small schools.
(5) Players who played in a system not suited to their talents.
(6) Workout warriors, and players with extraordinary physical characteristics, like an OL with extremely long arms.
Teams are willing to take risks on day three because these players are cheap, and most don't work out anyway. Many don't even make the final 53, and are often beaten out for roster spots by UDFAs. Most are of course expected to play ST.
Day three players tend to be in one or more of the following categories:
(1) Players who have fallen because of character concerns. This year that included Chad Kelly. Somebody will probably draft him on day three, especially since he's a QB.
(2) Players who have fallen because of injuries, especially if they are recent.
(3) Players who have only played football for a few years.
(4) Players from small schools.
(5) Players who played in a system not suited to their talents.
(6) Workout warriors, and players with extraordinary physical characteristics, like an OL with extremely long arms.
Teams are willing to take risks on day three because these players are cheap, and most don't work out anyway. Many don't even make the final 53, and are often beaten out for roster spots by UDFAs. Most are of course expected to play ST.
thrrr are probabaly 5 players every draft who don't fall into one or more of those categories.
Tend to agree.
A pass catching running back, coverage linebacker, swing tackles, return men. And ocassuonally you'll strike gold and they will prove to be more capable then people thought.
There are very few clean prospects. Players either didn't produce enough for their perceived talent , lack ideal measureables, or have character concerns. If they don't fall into one of these three categories they are top 10 picks.
in addition, identify opportunities within ones own team, not just -needs- but play style or -intended play style- (hello, OL) where improvements can be % most realistically made on that round by round positional basis in each instance, leveraging the above.
then, the obvious, work hard at the 'known leading' players as well, in case they drop and you have value conflicts that result.
and finally, keep in mind, 16,500 kid are eligible and about only 330 go to the combine so...regarding all the obsessing about the first round 'studs', sure, that's important, but if you fail to work the numbers you are really missing the whole story.
why would any team outsource the first stage of its scouting pool to whomever does the combine invites? that would be counter productive to be polite.