Hello, BBI.
I know fantasy baseball is far less popular around these parts than fantasy football so there's much less discussion to take part in.
I've been in a long time keeper league for over a decade now but just started a brand new league with some friends so drafting in a league with a full player pool is going to be vastly different as I am used to all of the elite players already being rostered.
TL;DR.. the draft is Sunday and I really don't have as much time as I have in the past to really dig in and do some research. What do you guys feel are the best resources for player rankings, sleepers, etc?
10 team league, I'm picking 8th. The league is H2H points.
Should I go for Kershaw and then get a hitter like Correa or Rizzo on the wrap or reverse it and try for something like Machado/Scherzer?
Share your wisdom!
I'm more likely deciding between Machado, Donaldson, or Harper.
Then in rd 3-4 go hitting. The only pitcher I like in rd 3-4 is Sale if he is there which he won't be.
Late rds 20-22 look for Moncada. He is teeing up now 2hrs last night.
I think 13th overall would be significantly too soon for Correa. I like Charlie Blackmon a lot at that spot regardless of what you end up with in the first. Top tier OF is thin this year, and infield positions have never been deeper.
A combination like Harper/Blackmon wouldn't be crazy.
Without knowing your rules, my top 8 would be:
Trout
Arenado
Betts
Bryant
Altuve
Goldschmidt
Machado
Harper
(I'm in a season long roto that is heavy on power)
I think 13th overall would be significantly too soon for Correa. I like Charlie Blackmon a lot at that spot regardless of what you end up with in the first. Top tier OF is thin this year, and infield positions have never been deeper.
A combination like Harper/Blackmon wouldn't be crazy.
Without knowing your rules, my top 8 would be:
Trout
Arenado
Betts
Bryant
Altuve
Goldschmidt
Machado
Harper
(I'm in a season long roto that is heavy on power)
He said he's in a H2H league so SP is MUCH more valuable than if it were a roto league. Kershaw is absolutely one of the top 8 players in H2H leagues. Probably top 5, being conservative.
If you are in a league where starts are limited (ex. 180 starts) then you can go for a Kershaw. If the league is a minimum innings league, then take the position players because otherwise you are putting a lot of eggs in a basket (as I learned last season when I took Kershaw in a league with a 180 start minimum only to see him come up lame). There will be pitchers later on in the draft (Porcello) or on waivers (Duffy) who will be almost as valuable, while you won't find a Rizzo or a Correa in the 10th round.
Have fund and good luck.
H2H you can play matchups. A Kershaw actually limits flexibility because you paid so much for him in terms of draft status. In H2H, the random pitcher pitching against the Padres at PETCO may be more valuable that particular week than Kershaw starting in Coors or against the Giants. When I had Kershaw last season, it seemed like he matched up with Bumgarner a half dozen times.
Who do i keep with my third?
Arrieta
Dozier
Pollock
I have eliminated Pollock because he already injured his groin..
If take Arrieta I will need a pitcher with my first pick.. Maybe Syndergaard falls
I am torn between Arrieta and Dozier..
Betts was the highest scoring position player last year in this format (764 points)
Scherzer had 555 and was the highest scoring pitcher.
Familia, Britton, and Jansen are all right outside the top 10 for pitchers so closers are definitely valuable if they rack up saves.
I'll save you a spot for next year!
I'm more likely deciding between Machado, Donaldson, or Harper.
I've done zero research. Surprised to see Donaldson and Harper dont make your top 7? Are people down on Harper based on the one sub-par year?
I pick 3rd overall in mine - we value starting pitching more than you but i still prefer to take hitters. What's the outlook for top 3 - Trout, Betts and maybe Kershaw? If a hitter who would you go with instead at #3 over Kershaw?
He's a hitting machine who hits for average, steals 30+ bags a year and his power spiked last year with 24 HR's. Scored over 100 runs, nearly drove in 100 too. Dude is an absolute stud.
Donaldson and Harper are right on the bubble for me @ 8. I think. Our league values power a lot so I'd be comfortable with either. Those guys would be in the mix with Machado for me I think.
Altuve: He's a beast, but don't expect you'll definitely get 25 HRs; you may get in the high teens.
I'm high on Harper and Stanton this year. Last year was practically Harper's floor. I'm willing to live with the injury risk of Stanton with the 50 dong upside. Gimme all the dongs.
I actually kicked myself last year after my draft because I drafted too many position players in the early rounds and got left really scrounging to round out my pitching depth.
I found during the year that a LOT of good, productive position players became available in the pool.
I'm definitely looking to get one hitter and one pitcher with my first two picks. Stud hitters are still super important but I vividly remember last year feeling like my strategy was wrong because I didn't address pitching early and often enough.
As for Sanchez.. the ceiling is clearly tremendous. I don't think what he did last year is totally sustainable through a full season but I do think he'll be one of the top catchers this year easily.
If you have a section about playing top tier defense in that blog, I'll subscribe right now.
Quote:
and I'll direct you to my blog. I can't share my advice freely here so I started a fantasy baseball blog that gets millions of hits.
If you have a section about playing top tier defense in that blog, I'll subscribe right now.
You nailed it. Part of my strategy is picking the best late inning defensive replacements and loading up on middle relievers.
but that's as much as I'll say here.
The guy is one of the more brittle players - i get there's been some bad luck in there - i can recall since Scott Rolen.
Quote:
In comment 13395744 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
and I'll direct you to my blog. I can't share my advice freely here so I started a fantasy baseball blog that gets millions of hits.
If you have a section about playing top tier defense in that blog, I'll subscribe right now.
You nailed it. Part of my strategy is picking the best late inning defensive replacements and loading up on middle relievers.
but that's as much as I'll say here.
Also, don't forget to draft a manager (or a few), you never know when there will be a resurgence of the player/manager. You don't want to be caught unaware when Terry Collins pencils himself in at 2B.
Last piece of free fantasy baseball advice is don't neglect the LOOGY. Sure they only come in for a batter or two, but if they K one you get points for that.
this is mostly common sense, but some people just don't get it sometimes.
Lol.
Remember when Seth loaded up on middle relievers? Classic Seth.
Realistically, what do you think Sanchez will do? I'll say .290 with 35 hrs and 120 RBI. I think he will be the far and away best catcher with a chance to be the most valuable position player(due to his position).
LOL, he led the league in holds. we did have holds as a stat for one season but loading up on middle relievers to get a lot of holds as a strategy made no sense.
Here's how I fared.. just in case anyone cares.
C: McCann
1B: C. Davis, G. Bird
2B: Dozier, Walker
SS: Story
3B: Donaldson
OF: Pederson, Benintendi, Kepler, Buxton, Tomas, Gardner (last pick.. was auto picked. Will probably drop)
SP: Kershaw, Cueto, Carlos Martinez, Duffy, Roark, Velasquez, Bundy, Gsellman, Snell
RP: Britton, Herrera, Ramos, Allen
10 team league, H2H points.. so yeah, most of the teams are sort of "stacked" on paper.
His cheat sheets are great, but player pool is shallow for leagues drafting 250-300 players.
Last year I went big and built a massive cheat sheet using smartfantasybaseball.com. It's a real dedication, but also taught me excel functions that translate to my job. Now I just pull projections from fangraphs and plug them right into my spreadsheet daily. I use it for the draft and essentially use it for free agency.
Here's how I fared.. just in case anyone cares.
C: McCann
1B: C. Davis, G. Bird
2B: Dozier, Walker
SS: Story
3B: Donaldson
OF: Pederson, Benintendi, Kepler, Buxton, Tomas, Gardner (last pick.. was auto picked. Will probably drop)
SP: Kershaw, Cueto, Carlos Martinez, Duffy, Roark, Velasquez, Bundy, Gsellman, Snell
RP: Britton, Herrera, Ramos, Allen
10 team league, H2H points.. so yeah, most of the teams are sort of "stacked" on paper.
For a points league I hate your lineup. Too many K's = inconsistent play. Bird is better than Davis at first and besides Benintendi, all of your OF's are backups in my 12 team H2H points league. Story is alright if you missed out on Correa, Machado, Seager, Turner, Lindor and Bogaerts but I would have even gone Diaz over him (better contact rate). Even Dozier would be my last resort of the big 2B (I would have even taken Zobrist ahead of him).
Your team isn't completely shot. Your rotation is pretty good.
C - Gattis, Vogt
1B - Bird, Joseph, Thames
2B - Murphy, Peraza
SS - Bogaerts
3B - Moustakas
OF - Betts, Bautista, Jose Ramirez
DH - Holliday
SP - Archer, Duffy, Cole, McCullers, Shoemaker, Gio Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen, Kazmir, Smyly, Glasnow
RP - Colome
It's a power-heavy league and Davis' HR totals the last 4 years are 38, 47, 26, 53.
He was the 4th highest scoring 1B in this format in 2015 even while leading the league in K's
My OF is obviously weak, it's a lot of potential. But every year I've played fantasy baseball, I've found that OF'ers shake loose over the course of the season. It's harder to find pitching.
Also- Altuve was the only 2B who scored more than Dozier in 2016. Dozier was the 3rd highest scoring 2B the year before. Zobrist wasn't close either year.
My league probably just scores differently than yours.
When I took him, yes.. Machado, Correa, Seager, Turner, Boegearts and Lindor were all off the board.
It's a power-heavy league and Davis' HR totals the last 4 years are 38, 47, 26, 53.
He was the 4th highest scoring 1B in this format in 2015 even while leading the league in K's
My OF is obviously weak, it's a lot of potential. But every year I've played fantasy baseball, I've found that OF'ers shake loose over the course of the season. It's harder to find pitching.
Also- Altuve was the only 2B who scored more than Dozier in 2016. Dozier was the 3rd highest scoring 2B the year before. Zobrist wasn't close either year.
My league probably just scores differently than yours.
I want to preface this by saying I'm not trying to be dick by crapping on your team, but I've played in H2H points leagues for 10+ years and hitters with heavy K #'s kill you.
When you say your league is power heavy, what makes it that way? Do you get bonus points for HR's or is it worth your standard 6 + 1 for every additional RBI? Are K's worth -1?
Sure, if Chris Davis goes .262 47 117 w/ 208 K's like he did in 2015 then he's a great 1B, but his 3 year average along with reliable projection systems like Steamers and Zips all have him at .230 35 100 w/ 200 k's. Using strictly Steamers projections, which are consistently the most accurate available, his points per game in my scoring system (its very similar to the standard scoring on CBS) is 2.15, making him the 30th ranked 1B. Bird is 2.44, ranked 14th.
I'm in the minority on Dozier because he's a strikeout hitter coming off a career year in hits, HR's RBI and AVG. Steamers has him regressing back to his career norms in all of those categories, putting his points per game at 2.54, behind Murphy, Cano, Pedroia, Zobrist and Odor. His projections put him closer to DJ LeMahieu at 7th, than Odor at 5th.
Obviously, these projections are not to be taken as the bible. In '15 I ripped my brother for taking Chris Davis in the 7th round, and he carried him to a title. But, I personally shy away from these types of guys on draft day. They are always over drafted because of sexy stats like HR's by people who don't study their scoring systems effect on every stat.
My advise would be to download Steamers or Zips projections from Fangraphs, create a formula in excel w/ your scoring system so it spits out points per plate appearance and points per game, then target guys who excel in those numbers. My second league (not the league where I posted my roster) have guys who bring magazines and printouts with the CBS projections to the draft. I'm consistently finishing in the top 3 because the Fangraphs projections w/ some customization is much better than anything you can find on the net.
HR's are worth 3.. +2 for RBI, +2 for XBH, +1 for RS.. so in effect, a HR is worth 8 pts in this league.
My strategy was to purposely load up on 30-40 HR players because all I need are a couple of them getting hot and it'll carry my offense. Between Donaldson, Story, Dozier, and Davis, (and even Tomas/Pederson) my team is going to hit a ridiculous amt of HR's.
K's are -0.5... Davis can strike out 3x and hit a HR in a game and net me 6.5 points that night. I'm not worried about the K's.
Like I said, power hitters just have a ton of value in this league and they don't get killed by K's.
I'd love to download all those projections and make a fancy excel spreadsheet and all that jazz, I simply don't have the time for it these days. I think I'll be fine.
I'm in a long-time keeper league with the same scoring system and I've won it a couple times. I have a pretty good idea of which types of players are going to score well and which aren't
I'm not offended by the criticism, my team isn't going to steamroll everyone. Just pointing out that the scoring favors power hitters and that K's don't really kill their value as much as it would in a league where they're worth -1.
H2H categories league, pretty standard scoring. Keepers are due this week for me. No keeper penalties. Im keeping Correa, Betts, Miggy, Sale, and Cespedes. Have to decide on one more keeper out of:
Odor
Story
Verlander
Not crazy about any of them, I have a hard time thinking Verlander repeats last year, but most have him as a top starter.
Sanchez went in the mid-4th round in both of the drafts I've done so far.
Top of round 4. First C off the board.
Guy who took him is a Yankee fan so take that into account. Posey went in the next round, though.
H2H categories league, pretty standard scoring. Keepers are due this week for me. No keeper penalties. Im keeping Correa, Betts, Miggy, Sale, and Cespedes. Have to decide on one more keeper out of:
Odor
Story
Verlander
Not crazy about any of them, I have a hard time thinking Verlander repeats last year, but most have him as a top starter.
Agreed. I purposely drafted this way. It may or may not work out but I seem to always wish I went more pitching heavy a few weeks after the draft because I always find position players in the waiver pool that can help but the SP options get super limited and dicey as the year goes on.
Keep in mind also that guys like Britton, Familia, and Jansen all finished just outside the top 10 and in the top 15 in this league last year for pitchers. I am rolling four pretty legit closers with Britton, Herrera, Allen, and Ramos and am going to have spots to keep them all active on most days. I should rack up a ton of saves.
As for you.. I agree, I think Verlander's 2016 is going to be tough to repeat. I actually drafted him semi-early last year because of the way he finished 2015 and thought he was in line for a bounceback year but I didn't think he'd be THAT good. I think he'll be good again this year, I'm not sure he'll be quite that good.
Honestly, though.. those are all solid choices. Keeping Odor/Story would allow you to go very pitching heavy in the draft.
Story hit 27 HR's and drove in over 70 runs in less than 100 games last year. If he's going to be anywhere near that pace and play a full season, he has a pretty crazy ceiling. Odor is going to K a lot less, though.. and I think his power spike last year was legit and sustainable. It may not be out of the question for him to swipe 20 bases, either.
I think I'd keep one of those two guys and then really focus on pitching in your draft.
HR's are worth 3.. +2 for RBI, +2 for XBH, +1 for RS.. so in effect, a HR is worth 8 pts in this league.
My strategy was to purposely load up on 30-40 HR players because all I need are a couple of them getting hot and it'll carry my offense. Between Donaldson, Story, Dozier, and Davis, (and even Tomas/Pederson) my team is going to hit a ridiculous amt of HR's.
K's are -0.5... Davis can strike out 3x and hit a HR in a game and net me 6.5 points that night. I'm not worried about the K's.
Like I said, power hitters just have a ton of value in this league and they don't get killed by K's.
I'd love to download all those projections and make a fancy excel spreadsheet and all that jazz, I simply don't have the time for it these days. I think I'll be fine.
I'm in a long-time keeper league with the same scoring system and I've won it a couple times. I have a pretty good idea of which types of players are going to score well and which aren't
I'm not offended by the criticism, my team isn't going to steamroll everyone. Just pointing out that the scoring favors power hitters and that K's don't really kill their value as much as it would in a league where they're worth -1.
Yep, I'd say your league leans heavily on power hitters. Looks like your roster fits the bill then.
I had Ryan Howard once, and he drove me nuts. On a good day he'd get 3 points (homerun with 3 K's), but on most days he'd be negative. Since then, I have always focused on low strikeout rate and/or slap hitters. Staples of my lineup have been Pujols, Murphy, Betts, Bautista and going back a few years, Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, Erick Aybar and Yadi Molina.