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NFT: North vs South Korea: WHo would win?

superspynyg : 3/18/2017 12:08 pm
I know there has been some talk in the past weeks about the North's crazy leader and the threat that he poses.

Here is a really good article on if hostilities did arise
link - ( New Window )
Neither.  
Section331 : 3/18/2017 12:13 pm : link
SK would eventually "win", but the losses to both sides, and our troops in the DMZ, would likely be catastrophic.
North Korea easily  
Vanzetti : 3/18/2017 12:33 pm : link
As crazy as Kim is, his rule gives them central control. South Korea is a mess. They elected the daughter of their former dictator and US puppet and she was allowing important decisions to be made by a Korean Madame Cleo. The country is basically being run by business elites who are using the government as a cash cow to line their own pockets.

China-Russia and the US would work together to stop a war, so it would never happen. But if it did, North Korea would run them over in a week.
RE: North Korea easily  
dpinzow : 3/18/2017 12:48 pm : link
In comment 13398067 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
As crazy as Kim is, his rule gives them central control. South Korea is a mess. They elected the daughter of their former dictator and US puppet and she was allowing important decisions to be made by a Korean Madame Cleo. The country is basically being run by business elites who are using the government as a cash cow to line their own pockets.

China-Russia and the US would work together to stop a war, so it would never happen. But if it did, North Korea would run them over in a week.


Without American assistance, NK would win but SK would almost assuredly get American assistance so it would be a horror scenario similar to Section331's thoughts
With Obama still in, the North....With Trump, the South.....  
Blue Angel : 3/18/2017 12:51 pm : link
With Obama still in as president the US will only do surgical strikes then eventually let the North "choose" their own government again and that WILL NEVER work, it will probably be some lesser form of dictatorship...and it will eventually lead to yet another Korean War. With Trump as President....I believe he will NOT allow the South to lose even if it means World War Three......The next Korean war is WINNERS TAKE ALL, if the South wins they must take over THE WHOLE country or it WILL be A WASTEFUL AND USELESS WAR.
RE: With Obama still in, the North....With Trump, the South.....  
dpinzow : 3/18/2017 12:54 pm : link
In comment 13398079 Blue Angel said:
Quote:
With Obama still in as president the US will only do surgical strikes then eventually let the North "choose" their own government again and that WILL NEVER work, it will probably be some lesser form of dictatorship...and it will eventually lead to yet another Korean War. With Trump as President....I believe he will NOT allow the South to lose even if it means World War Three......The next Korean war is WINNERS TAKE ALL, if the South wins they must take over THE WHOLE country or it WILL be A WASTEFUL AND USELESS WAR.


President Obama was in for 8 years and North Korea did not win anything (ceasefire/stalemate maintained).

With the current WH occupant, the chances of Section331's horror scenario with ROK "winning" are far higher and that is actually far worse than the situation last year
A war would be terrible  
sshin05 : 3/18/2017 1:25 pm : link
and there would be a tremendous loss of life. I read somewhere that the loss of life would reach millions within the first hour of war.

In term of military strength and technology, SK should win because of that sort of superiority but NK has numbers which can be a great equalizer. Not for nothing, both sides have cannons, guns, artillery pointed at each other and the fact that Seoul isn't too far from the border could hamper SK's potency. There's a possibility, NK has an EMP attack which could neutralize a lot of things SK wants to do. On top of that, there are rumors that NK has built secret underground tunnels that lead all the way to Seoul. However, these are factors are not known and one can only speculate. Most of the military technology in the NK arsenal are old or outdated, hard to see them win when they are half starving and outgunned for the most part.
That North Korea has continued development of atomic weaponry  
GiantsLaw : 3/18/2017 1:27 pm : link
has changed the game
Everyone would lose.  
Jim in Forest Hills : 3/18/2017 1:35 pm : link
Millions would die. This is one of those cases that we need the CIA to remove this guy. Or a movement by the people. Problem is the military is so big over there percentage wise, everyone's scared.
Not sure I understand some of your answers?  
JOrthman : 3/18/2017 1:48 pm : link
Yes the South is going through a mess right now with their president, but at the end of the day it is being peacefully resolved without outside assistance. Meanwhile, up north their people are brainwashed. Further you're asking about a war and the South has a standing Army so not sure what political unrest has to do with who would win. Further, there is no war without U.S. involvement as the U.S. is very much ingrained in the peninsula as we have been for over 60 years.
...  
JerebilJ : 3/18/2017 1:48 pm : link
"The US and South Korean governments might want to keep the North at bay instead of overrunning the government completely. A 2013 RAND Corporation research paper estimated the cost of unification to be upwards of $2 trillion dollars. This is not only to pay for the war, but for food for the population and restoration of all the infrastructure the Kim regime neglected over the past sixty-plus years. Gen. Marks believes the North and South will continue to only use short, contained attacks on each other."

Don't see how the US or our allies would take on the burden of cleaning up the mess this war would cause. China has the biggest interest to prevent an all out war for this very reason. NK Saber rattling occurs this time every year and dies down once war games between US and SK end next month. In the end, I see China intervening diplomatically to keep the leash tight on Kim Jung-un.
RE: Everyone would lose.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2017 2:03 pm : link
In comment 13398134 Jim in Forest Hills said:
Quote:
Millions would die. This is one of those cases that we need the CIA to remove this guy. Or a movement by the people. Problem is the military is so big over there percentage wise, everyone's scared.


Yup. There would be no winners. Only survivors.
RE: RE: With Obama still in, the North....With Trump, the South.....  
BurberryManning : 3/18/2017 3:37 pm : link
In comment 13398083 dpinzow said:
Quote:
In comment 13398079 Blue Angel said:


Quote:


With Obama still in as president the US will only do surgical strikes then eventually let the North "choose" their own government again and that WILL NEVER work, it will probably be some lesser form of dictatorship...and it will eventually lead to yet another Korean War. With Trump as President....I believe he will NOT allow the South to lose even if it means World War Three......The next Korean war is WINNERS TAKE ALL, if the South wins they must take over THE WHOLE country or it WILL be A WASTEFUL AND USELESS WAR.



President Obama was in for 8 years and North Korea did not win anything (ceasefire/stalemate maintained).

With the current WH occupant, the chances of Section331's horror scenario with ROK "winning" are far higher and that is actually far worse than the situation last year
Over that eight years NK significantly enhanced their nuclear capabilities, from my understanding. In fact, I recall reading that Western authorities were astonished with their rapid progress and suspect that they must have gained assistance from other state actors in order to advance so quickly.
There would never be a war without us involved  
gtt350 : 3/18/2017 4:08 pm : link
every single barracks, communication center air strip etc has long been pinpointed as well as the political infrastructure buildings. they would all be leveled within a day.
The South would win, and easily...  
Dunedin81 : 3/18/2017 9:13 pm : link
But at great cost to the civilian population. The ROK army is better equipped, better provisioned, and isn't trapped in the 1950's. Additionally the North is much more vulnerable to decapitation because of the nature of the state. They wouldn't fight without us, but they could.
The south  
jtfuoco : 3/19/2017 12:26 am : link
Wins easily after a heavy first exchange the South is superior in almost ever way it has better equipment and better trained troops and that is not even including American support specially Aviation assets and anti missile capabilities both land base and off shore. The one interesting factor for the North is agents operating in the south I read in one report that there could be up 50K of them ready to sabotage when given the order.
Holy shit  
Joey in VA : 3/19/2017 12:57 am : link
This place may be stupider than I thought. South Korea would annihilate the North and it's not even close. NK has a crazy leader but a malnourished populace and horribly trained "troops" who are also woefully malnourished and have been years. The NK people are sickly, starving, deluded and in no way ready for anything close to a war. You think US troop training and involvement in SK for nearly 5 decades has had no effect on their capabilities? The idiocy here sometimes is just flabbergasting.
RE: North Korea easily  
Joey in VA : 3/19/2017 12:57 am : link
In comment 13398067 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
As crazy as Kim is, his rule gives them central control. South Korea is a mess. They elected the daughter of their former dictator and US puppet and she was allowing important decisions to be made by a Korean Madame Cleo. The country is basically being run by business elites who are using the government as a cash cow to line their own pockets.

China-Russia and the US would work together to stop a war, so it would never happen. But if it did, North Korea would run them over in a week.
You should not be allowed on the internet, not now not ever.
Who has more satellites in space?  
bigschott : 3/19/2017 1:34 am : link
War today is more than who has more munition.

SK likely has a significant intelligence advantage so I pick them easily.
In a technical sense, South Korea would  
JerryNYG : 3/19/2017 7:43 am : link
due to everything stated here already (arms, logistics, intelligence, allied support from the U.S.).

But, in a very real sense, everyone would lose. The potential for nuclear exchange is significant, and the consequences of such have an effect globally in terms of both health/environmental impact and politically in terms of destablizing a region currently enjoying a long lasting but tenuous peace.

The loss of human life and the subsequent suffering would be massive, the impact on the global economy would also hurt people worldwide.

I know some macho tough guys like to fantasize about flattening this country or that country... but shit like this is bad for everyone. Anyone in their right mind should fear another largescale global conflict between opposing nationstates.

I don't think anyone doubts the capability of South Korea, with their allies including the U.S. to completely overwhelm North Korea's military, not without great cost, though.

The question then becomes, what do you do afterward? See the ongoing saga of Iraq for a what not to do lesson. This would easily be worse.

The cost in capital, energy, and commitment to pull a potentially irradiated Korean peninsula together into one stable government, to deprogram the cult brainwashing of North Koreans, to build modern infrastructure in the north... what a nightmare.
RE: In a technical sense, South Korea would  
Jim in Forest Hills : 3/19/2017 8:53 am : link
In comment 13398743 JerryNYG said:
Quote:
due to everything stated here already (arms, logistics, intelligence, allied support from the U.S.).

But, in a very real sense, everyone would lose. The potential for nuclear exchange is significant, and the consequences of such have an effect globally in terms of both health/environmental impact and politically in terms of destablizing a region currently enjoying a long lasting but tenuous peace.

The loss of human life and the subsequent suffering would be massive, the impact on the global economy would also hurt people worldwide.

I know some macho tough guys like to fantasize about flattening this country or that country... but shit like this is bad for everyone. Anyone in their right mind should fear another largescale global conflict between opposing nationstates.

I don't think anyone doubts the capability of South Korea, with their allies including the U.S. to completely overwhelm North Korea's military, not without great cost, though.

The question then becomes, what do you do afterward? See the ongoing saga of Iraq for a what not to do lesson. This would easily be worse.

The cost in capital, energy, and commitment to pull a potentially irradiated Korean peninsula together into one stable government, to deprogram the cult brainwashing of North Koreans, to build modern infrastructure in the north... what a nightmare.


Spot on Jerry. The north, a trapped rat would simply launch everything they had. Of course the south would be the victor, but at such cost that the recovery would be decades in the making.
kind of a silly article (US and SK joined at the hip)  
bc4life : 3/19/2017 9:51 am : link
and a lot of misinformation and missing information re: the peninsula.


And, I wouldn't dismiss the NK as all poorly trained.
...  
Jay on the Island : 3/19/2017 10:28 am : link
How many of the North Korean soldiers would fight to the death to protect their maniacal ruthless leader? I think a decent amount of North Korea soldiers would surrender to the South. Most of North Korea dreams about leaving the country but can't due to fear of death and/or imprisonment of not only them but their entire families. My main concern of a war is not would the North win, they would lose quickly, but would Kim fire off nukes before he is killed.
Jay great point, they would probably assasinate him  
gtt350 : 3/19/2017 10:41 am : link
and surrender
RE: ...  
jcn56 : 3/19/2017 10:45 am : link
In comment 13398840 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
How many of the North Korean soldiers would fight to the death to protect their maniacal ruthless leader? I think a decent amount of North Korea soldiers would surrender to the South. Most of North Korea dreams about leaving the country but can't due to fear of death and/or imprisonment of not only them but their entire families. My main concern of a war is not would the North win, they would lose quickly, but would Kim fire off nukes before he is killed.


I always figured this, but even in the nuclear scenario. I don't think his henchmen would carry out that order, believing it'd be death for them one way or the other.
I think you guys underestimate the cult of personality  
JerryNYG : 3/19/2017 10:52 am : link
Yes, many people try to flee North Korea and many more would like to. But, there are vast numbers of citizens who are essentially in the same mental state as cult members who venerate a cult leader.

I don't think betting on mass defections or countermanding orders to launch nukes is a solid choice.
RE: ...  
Mike From Brielle : 3/19/2017 2:06 pm : link
In comment 13398840 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
How many of the North Korean soldiers would fight to the death to protect their maniacal ruthless leader? I think a decent amount of North Korea soldiers would surrender to the South. Most of North Korea dreams about leaving the country but can't due to fear of death and/or imprisonment of not only them but their entire families. My main concern of a war is not would the North win, they would lose quickly, but would Kim fire off nukes before he is killed.


Just like Sadam Hussein had a little mafia based out of Tikrit that had a self interest in keeping the regime in power I think the Kim's have the same (the so called NK communist party) but they have been doing it for longer. From what I've heard the issue to the Korean's is very different than the way we look at it.
RE: I think you guys underestimate the cult of personality  
JOrthman : 3/19/2017 3:06 pm : link
In comment 13398862 JerryNYG said:
Quote:
Yes, many people try to flee North Korea and many more would like to. But, there are vast numbers of citizens who are essentially in the same mental state as cult members who venerate a cult leader.

I don't think betting on mass defections or countermanding orders to launch nukes is a solid choice.


To a point, but North Koreans defect to the south all the time.
I doubt China would allow NK to make a move on SK  
steve in ky : 3/19/2017 4:51 pm : link
If it ever did happen China would have to move in because they wouldn't sit back and allow the possibility of the US moving into NK.

It likley will never happen because China and the US have no interest in going to war over the region.
RE: I doubt China would allow NK to make a move on SK  
Dunedin81 : 3/19/2017 5:26 pm : link
In comment 13399154 steve in ky said:
Quote:
If it ever did happen China would have to move in because they wouldn't sit back and allow the possibility of the US moving into NK.

It likley will never happen because China and the US have no interest in going to war over the region.


I think that's an assumption that may no longer hold true. China may be better served by getting us off the peninsula long term than by protecting a fucked up client state in perpetuity. Throw in the concessions they could likely wrest for their neutrality and Chinese leadership may not feel obligated to jump in. They have broader interests and our presence in strength on that side of the Pacific has its drawbacks for them.
Dune  
steve in ky : 3/19/2017 5:31 pm : link
Of course they would like the USA gone from the region but it is a big leap from there to suggesting they would want to go to war with us over it.
Oh they don't...  
Dunedin81 : 3/19/2017 6:16 pm : link
I'm saying there is at least a reasonable prospect they would let the South Koreans and the US have their way with NK instead of intervening militarily or diplomatically to force an end if it got going.
Ditka  
jlukes : 3/19/2017 6:54 pm : link
.
Lets do a more exciting contest  
Bill2 : 3/19/2017 9:23 pm : link
San Marino vs Andorra

San Marino has been independent since 303AD.

Can either Korea, China or Russia claim the same? Kublai Kahn would claim otherwise

Can the US?

Charlemange granted Andorra independence since the early 800's.

San Marino has a military of 80 CrossBow Guards who shoot their crossbows at festivals but Andorra has the highest average life expectency in Europe at 81 years old.

Id say it would be over quickly and the winner could take on France in the Round of Four while we took on the winner of Uraguay vs Paraguay
The problem for the Chinese ...  
Mike From Brielle : 3/20/2017 8:49 am : link
and may have been the same problem in 1950 is I believe people speak Korean on both sides of the Yalu river. I've been told that Koreans will tell you that Korea was not cut into two but into three separate parts, the third part being north of the Yalu. If we had stayed at the Yalu river in 1950 the Chinese probably would have viewed it as being tremendously destabilizing internally. IMHO the Chinese prefer having NK harassing us while avoiding any internal issues. The Chinese want to create a not-so-co-prosperity sphere of influence, again IMHO.
RE: The South would win, and easily...  
njm : 3/20/2017 9:02 am : link
In comment 13398559 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
But at great cost to the civilian population. The ROK army is better equipped, better provisioned, and isn't trapped in the 1950's. Additionally the North is much more vulnerable to decapitation because of the nature of the state. They wouldn't fight without us, but they could.


IMHO you nailed it.
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