for display only
Big Blue Interactive The Corner Forum  
Back to the Corner

Archived Thread

NFT: Montgomery looked good in Yank's game today

mavric : 3/23/2017 2:45 pm
Lefty Montgomery looked sharped pitching 4 1/3 innings. Gave up 3 hits, 1 run, and 8 strike outs. Likely earning him the 5th starter spot. We shall see if that was good enough.
Rotation  
kash94 : 3/23/2017 2:51 pm : link
would be

1- Tanaka
2- CC
3- Pineda
4- Serv
5- Mont

in that scenario. Is that correct? Also what would be bullpen?

1- Chapman
2- Betances
3- Clippard
4- Shreve
5- Warren
6- Mitchell
7- ???

Bryan Hoch  
Steve in Greenwich : 3/23/2017 2:53 pm : link
was projected a few minutes ago it would be Bryan Mitchell 4th Montgomery 5th with Severino going to the minors to sharpen his change up.
??? = Cessa  
Del Shofner : 3/23/2017 2:53 pm : link
.
Maybe I spoke too soon  
mavric : 3/23/2017 2:54 pm : link
When Montgomery left the game in the 5th, he got a ground out to SS, then gave up a single. He was replaced by Graham who got lit up like the 4th of July giving another earned run to Montgomery. Still, he looked sharp today.
I don't think Montgomery makes the team out of ST  
rich in DC : 3/23/2017 4:16 pm : link
Several reasons.

One- his career high in IP is 139. He MIGHT be able to bump that to 170-180 in 2017- but that would require missing starts and pulling him from games early. Instead, send him to AAA for the start of the season- have him miss a couple starts in April, then ramp it up a bit in May- and call him up in June.

Two- bringing him up in June likely has two positive results. The first is that it would definitely delay his FA until after the 2023 season. The second is that it would likely delay his eligibility for arbitration until after the 2020 season. No need to waste team control and cost control in a likely non-competitive season.

Three- it is not easy for SP to adjust to the bigs when there are the high expectations on a team at the start of a season. Every fan base thinks that "this is the year" in April- and respond accordingly to rookie struggles. When a guy comes in June, the fans base is more likely accepting of what their team is by that point and reduces the pressure on young players.

Four- by delaying his ML start until June, Montgomery's innings would likely have been managed to allow him to easily reach 175-180. In turn this would allow him to easily exceed 200IP in 2018- right when the Yanks expect to try and compete again.

I would point out that you can probably pen this in for the other major SP prospects in 2017 as well. Adams' career high in IP is 127- in 2016. He will likely be limited to somewhere around 160-165 IP in 2017, with the kid gloves off in 2018.

Kaprielian's career high in IP was in 2015- when he threw about 118 between college and the minors. He might top out around 160IP in 2017- through he might be shut down earlier than that in light of last year's injury. However, the kid gloves probably come off in 2018.

Justus Sheffield has thrown about 125 IP in 2015 and 2016- and likely gets bumped up to 165-170 in 2017, with the limits coming off in 2018.

The larger point is this- the Yanks will be very careful with the young SP in 2017, with an eye toward 2018 for all of them. So, the rush on Montgomery is not in his- or the Yanks- best interests. The 2017 Yanks probably will be in the same position as the 2016 version- so use 2017 to finish development and look to 2018.
They may want Severino  
section125 : 3/23/2017 4:32 pm : link
on the rotation, but I don't think he has earned it. His secondary stuff is just not that good.

Think it will be Mitchell and either Green or Montgomery..
Based on Rich's analysis  
MadPlaid : 3/23/2017 4:56 pm : link
it sounds like the likely candidates for the 4th and 5th spots will be Mitchell and Green/Warren.
Monty is 24  
Dunedin81 : 3/23/2017 5:00 pm : link
Last three seasons were 118, 134 and appx 140 innings, not to mention instructs. I'd be surprised if he had a significant innings restriction.
RE: I don't think Montgomery makes the team out of ST  
Matt M. : 3/23/2017 5:12 pm : link
In comment 13404312 rich in DC said:
Quote:
Several reasons.

One- his career high in IP is 139. He MIGHT be able to bump that to 170-180 in 2017- but that would require missing starts and pulling him from games early. Instead, send him to AAA for the start of the season- have him miss a couple starts in April, then ramp it up a bit in May- and call him up in June.

Two- bringing him up in June likely has two positive results. The first is that it would definitely delay his FA until after the 2023 season. The second is that it would likely delay his eligibility for arbitration until after the 2020 season. No need to waste team control and cost control in a likely non-competitive season.

Three- it is not easy for SP to adjust to the bigs when there are the high expectations on a team at the start of a season. Every fan base thinks that "this is the year" in April- and respond accordingly to rookie struggles. When a guy comes in June, the fans base is more likely accepting of what their team is by that point and reduces the pressure on young players.

Four- by delaying his ML start until June, Montgomery's innings would likely have been managed to allow him to easily reach 175-180. In turn this would allow him to easily exceed 200IP in 2018- right when the Yanks expect to try and compete again.

I would point out that you can probably pen this in for the other major SP prospects in 2017 as well. Adams' career high in IP is 127- in 2016. He will likely be limited to somewhere around 160-165 IP in 2017, with the kid gloves off in 2018.

Kaprielian's career high in IP was in 2015- when he threw about 118 between college and the minors. He might top out around 160IP in 2017- through he might be shut down earlier than that in light of last year's injury. However, the kid gloves probably come off in 2018.

Justus Sheffield has thrown about 125 IP in 2015 and 2016- and likely gets bumped up to 165-170 in 2017, with the limits coming off in 2018.

The larger point is this- the Yanks will be very careful with the young SP in 2017, with an eye toward 2018 for all of them. So, the rush on Montgomery is not in his- or the Yanks- best interests. The 2017 Yanks probably will be in the same position as the 2016 version- so use 2017 to finish development and look to 2018.
I don't see much benefit in starting Montgomery in AAA vs. the majors if the end goal is to have him in the rotation this season. Either way, he is starting at both levels. As a #5 starter there are starts that can be skipped with days off, especially early in the year. Additionally, you can skip him a few times over the course of the summer. Even if he starts in AAA, the combination of AAA and majors likely goes well above the threshold of his previous high of 139 innings. At some point, you just have to have these guys pitch.
RE: They may want Severino  
Matt M. : 3/23/2017 5:12 pm : link
In comment 13404337 section125 said:
Quote:
on the rotation, but I don't think he has earned it. His secondary stuff is just not that good.

Think it will be Mitchell and either Green or Montgomery..
I was really high on Severino. But, after 2+ years up and down, he just seems more and more suited for the pen.
RE: Monty is 24  
Matt M. : 3/23/2017 5:14 pm : link
In comment 13404371 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
Last three seasons were 118, 134 and appx 140 innings, not to mention instructs. I'd be surprised if he had a significant innings restriction.
Exactly. This would be a natural bump in innings. 175 innings is not a crazy bump from 140. He has earned the 5th spot more than any of the other names. The Yankees are fortunate to have a few candidates just in case, even if they didn't earn the spot in the Spring.
Severino may be like Rivera was  
shelovesnycsports : 3/23/2017 5:17 pm : link
great closer bad starter.
Tanaka
Pineda
CC
Mitchell
Green
With Warren ready to be thrown in the mix if the 4 or 5 implode.
Unless Kap blows up the AAA.
RE: Severino may be like Rivera was  
Matt M. : 3/23/2017 5:34 pm : link
In comment 13404389 shelovesnycsports said:
Quote:
great closer bad starter.
Tanaka
Pineda
CC
Mitchell
Green
With Warren ready to be thrown in the mix if the 4 or 5 implode.
Unless Kap blows up the AAA.
That's the one problem I see with Severino. If he moves to the bullpen, he really is better suited for the back of the pen. But, they already have Betances and Chapman. And, I trust Clippard a Hell of a lot more in a 7th inning role. It probably is wasteful, right now, to shove him in the pen. If he isn't in the rotation, he should be in Scranton pitching every 5th day and working on his change and other secondary pitches.
RE: They may want Severino  
dpinzow : 3/23/2017 6:47 pm : link
In comment 13404337 section125 said:
Quote:
on the rotation, but I don't think he has earned it. His secondary stuff is just not that good.

Think it will be Mitchell and either Green or Montgomery..


Severino's stuff always seems to end up in the middle of the plate when he tries to locate it. He has upper-end pitches but he can't put it on the corners with any kind of consistency
On Montgomery  
blueblood'11 : 3/23/2017 7:15 pm : link
Severino great arm but too inconsistent. However, it is so clear this guy has the potential to be a dynamic closer. Mitchell great arm too up and down. Most effective as a long reliever. I lthink Cessa showed the most consistency last year and think he should get one of those spots.

As for Montgomery last year he was talked about a lot and his numbers were off the chart. His performance in the spring has been nothing short of impressive. He's been a starter his whole career. I think it would be a disservice to him to make him a reliever when it is so clear he has outperformed Green and Severino by a mile. Plus he is a left handed pitcher.

He's 24 years old. He's at the right age to slot him in. I would not be surprised if he gets and he should get one of those two spots. His effort today was awesome. He's ready and the Yankees should and I can only hope the give him a shot. He deserves it.
Montgomery threw  
blue2 : 3/23/2017 9:28 pm : link
152 innings last year.
RE: Montgomery threw  
rich in DC : 3/23/2017 9:30 pm : link
In comment 13404533 blue2 said:
Quote:
152 innings last year.


Not sure where you are getting your numbers from. If you added the playoffs, most teams don't count those innings.
Jordan Montgomery's stats - ( New Window )
Recommended reading  
rich in DC : 3/23/2017 9:38 pm : link
Cashman gives a very deep interview- but his comments on the Yanks failure to develop SP- and what he believes to be the solution is very relevant to this discussion. I think Cashman's explanation shows that he might not be as willing as Girardi to "green light" Montgomery going right to NY in April.


Cashman interview - ( New Window )
Teams count  
blue2 : 3/23/2017 10:03 pm : link
all innings!
He is a big kid. How does his stuff look? I don't think it matters  
Jim in Hoboken : 3/23/2017 10:26 pm : link
where he starts. He'll be up shortly if one of the other young starters bombs in April.

I get what Cashman is saying. But do you need one full year for a single pitch? Severino had a great FB and SL combo when he came up. Last year his CU didn't develop and his SL went to shit too. Betances has two pitches and it took him like 6 years to get to the majors.

Let's face it, for sure the minor league coaching isn't great, but the raw talent isn't always there. At this rate Severino will be ready when he's 35.
RE: Rotation  
Beer Man : 3/24/2017 6:45 am : link
In comment 13404165 kash94 said:
Quote:
would be

1- Tanaka
2- CC
3- Pineda
4- Serv
5- Mont

in that scenario. Is that correct? Also what would be bullpen?

1- Chapman
2- Betances
3- Clippard
4- Shreve
5- Warren
6- Mitchell
7- ???
I think you have to add Frieri to the mix in the pen. He has been a strike-out machine in his last few outings.
Back to the Corner