As my good friend HomerJones45 opined recently, the worst time to draft a QB is when you need a QB. There is some truth in that (as there is for any other position). For teams like the Giants, Saints, Steelers, Chargers (to name four), it might serve them better to get a talented young QB in their pipeline before their franchise QBs hang 'em up, as the Packers did in 2005.
On the flip side, for a team that considers itself in contention for a championship, but could still use an infusion of talent at a variety of positions to cement that status, is it worth sacrificing a draft pick - especially a premium pick - to plan for the future? Does the possibility of a seamless transition from one starting QB to the next outweigh the desire to "go all in" now?
For me, while I recognize that Eli won't last forever, I still believe that he's got a couple of good years ahead of him. I'd rather upgrade the talent around him in the upcoming draft instead of looking for his successor this year. Some of that has to do with fact that I'm not really enamored with the QB prospects who should be available to the Giants, but in all honesty, most of it has to do with the desire to have Eli bring home another Lombardi Trophy.
To draft a QB this year, or not to draft a QB this year? That is the question.
What makes anyone think a QB at 23, in a QB starved NFL, will even be worth taking?
I also don't think the Giants would have signed both Geno and Johnson if they were seriously planning on drafting a QB.
IMHO, it has been the tendency of the Giants to roll the dice on positions they deem as not essential to the immediate success of the team. Since Eli is there, there's no immediate need. They tend to do this with LB and TE, and I would have to guess that the thinking is the same for QB, this year.
If there is a CB, DT, DE, or OL (sans center) or WR that they rate higher in Rounds 1, 2, or 3, I'd be shocked if they pulled the trigger on a QB anyway.
In today's NFL, the whole benefit to drafting a QB and being competitive at the same time is that you are paying him on the cheap for the first few years and you can pay up for the rest of the team around him. If you draft a guy to sit on the bench, you are losing those "cheap" years because he isn't playing and you are paying the guy who is playing top QB money.
Otherwise run to fail. Then rid yourself of all expensive contracts, getting as many picks as possible, and rebuild. I'd give it a least two years of being in the complete bottom of the dumpster. Maybe you find your next 10 year starter the first year, maybe its the second, maybe the 3rd. Let the young guys (all those draft picks you got for older vets) play and learn, pick very high for a couple years, then re-enter the FA market in year 3 to fill the voids to get back to being competitive.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 2nd Round in 2014
Ryan Mallett, 3rd Round in 2011
Zac Robinson, 7th Round in 2010
Kevin O'Connell, 3rd Round in 2008
Matt Cassel, 7th Round in 2005
Kliff Kingsbury, 6th Round in 2003
Rohan Davey, 4th Round in 2002
You should always be on the lookout for young QB's worth developing no matter who you have as the starter. That being said, even Belichick never spent a 1st round pick on a QB once he had Brady in place. Garappolo was a late 2nd round pick and the three 3rd round picks he spent were all late 3rd rounders.
My rule of thumb would be (assuming you're happy with your current starter):
--Spend a late 1st round pick if you have a Franchise QB grade on the guy.
--Spend a 2nd/3rd round pick if you have a 1st round grade on the guy.
--Spend a 4th/5th round pick if you have a 2nd round grade on the guy.
--Spend a 6th/7th round pick if you have a 3rd round grade on the guy.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 2nd Round in 2014
Ryan Mallett, 3rd Round in 2011
Zac Robinson, 7th Round in 2010
Kevin O'Connell, 3rd Round in 2008
Matt Cassel, 7th Round in 2005
Kliff Kingsbury, 6th Round in 2003
Rohan Davey, 4th Round in 2002
You should always be on the lookout for young QB's worth developing no matter who you have as the starter. That being said, even Belichick never spent a 1st round pick on a QB once he had Brady in place. Garappolo was a late 2nd round pick and the three 3rd round picks he spent were all late 3rd rounders.
My rule of thumb would be (assuming you're happy with your current starter):
--Spend a late 1st round pick if you have a Franchise QB grade on the guy.
--Spend a 2nd/3rd round pick if you have a 1st round grade on the guy.
--Spend a 4th/5th round pick if you have a 2nd round grade on the guy.
--Spend a 6th/7th round pick if you have a 3rd round grade on the guy.
Lets play the "name someone not Bill Belichick" game.
Come on, BB picks most of those guys to put on the trading block and turn around for better value. Why? Because he can afford to do it.
If theres runs @ other positions, and a QB is sitting there that they feel is the future of this franchise - I am absolutely on board.
Beckham, Marshall, Shepard, Perkins will be more than enough to move the ball on a team with a top 5 defense / solid special teams. This roster is not stuck in "win now" mode. They have more than enough talent to make a run ... and more than enough young talent to remain competitive for a long time.
WR is not a "need", Fluker/Ellison + Perkins increased playing time should improve the run game, and this defense is loaded.
If Reese thinks that what they should do I have confidence in him to do so.
If it was a strong draft for QBs I'd have no problem with it. I certainly wouldn't waste a pick just to take a QB. I'd go after guys who we think can contribute in year 1 and do whatever we can to make a Super Bowl run before Eli retires.
in that case, I'd consider a QB - if they really see something special they can groom.
for the record, I do not want a QB in the first round - at all. I can see a scenario where 1 falls due to runs at other positions, and in that case, I can at least understand the move. This team is in a great position to win now but has the youth to remain competitive for awhile as well.
I don't want reaches to fill needs .. Flowers/Pugh being the most recent examples (ironically, I think if flowers moved to RG we'd probably have the best guard tandem in the league ... neither drafted for those roles, but whatever)
Beyond the first round I'd be fine with it...I'd love Webb in the 3rd, but think he'll go in the 2nd, so if they love him and take him at 55, who am I to argue?
give eli 1 of these stud TE prospects + marshall to shep/odb, and good luck defenses. add a stud LB to this defense, and good luck moving the ball at all.
Frankly, there is not a huge difference between the NYG roster and the Bills roster. Other than Quarterback and Tyrod Taylor isnt even that bad.
Waiting until you need one is a great way to send your franchise into a decade long downward spin REGARDLESS of the other talent surrounding the quarterback.
Seriously, look around. Look at the franchises that have waited until they NEEDED a QB and then over-drafted a guy because of that need. Most of them are at the bottom of the league or slightly above. Hell the Redskins took RGIII and Kirk Cousins in the same draft. Where would they be now if they hadnt taken Cousins? Where would the Cowboys have been if they hadnt taken Prescott?
Trade Eli for Tyrod Taylor and we lose to the Bills two years ago. You dont wait.
So, if that special talent is there, yes. If not, you wait a year.
If they decide it is there and pick one in R1 (later in the draft is a different story), 2017 needs to be the last year Manning is on the team though. It's something they have to commit to, sentiment totally removed. Not getting any value out of a first round pick for multiple years while paying out huge cap hits to a QB who isn't likely to be top tier is fool's football in the current salary landscape. The delusional pipe dream about some Rodgers/Favre-esque 3/4 year transition is just that -- that situation was a huge outlier that GB didn't even play on taking that long (it only did because Favre kept shelving retirement after telling them something else); no one drafted this year is going to end up as all time great as Rodgers and, while some Giant fans are overly attached, Eli isn't an NFL-wide icon like Favre.
Next year, pending Eli's play, maybe time to get serious.
He doesn't need that type of hand holding, wasting cheap years of production (assuming his game translates) because the Giants -- or at least some fans proposing it -- can't sentimentally let Eli go.
But we really have to fear being thrown into post-Eli quarterback hell, which is worse than cap hell.
Just start by looking at the Redskins and the Jets. Going back a ways, after Fran Tarkenton left, it took the Giants eight years to draft his replacement, Phil Simms. In between the Giants' quarterbacks were Norm Snead, Craig Morton and Joe Pisarcik.
I would draft a quarterback, but only if there were really strong feelings that he could step in after Eli.
Webb might be the only QB I am intrigued with. But I doubt we'll get a shot to take him He might not last til our 2nd round pick.
Lets say we draft Watson and he sits and learns from Eli in 2017 and then is poised to compete for the starting role. Then you can even trade Eli for assets.
That's a really good question.
I think because we think that Eli wants to play for three more years and nobody thinks that we should or would tell Eli that he was out before he wanted to be out.
Trubisky - won't likely be there, but while he looks physically talented, I can't help but think he has a little bit of Bortles/Tannahill in him i.e. the physical gifts are there but I wonder if the intangibles are.
The opposite to me in Watson, who is tough, a winner etc. but the arm strength is concerning to me.
Kizer never impressed me after watching pretty much all his college games. While his size is ideal and athleticism/arm are good, his accuracy is not.
Mahomes to me is the best of the bunch. The obvious problem is the learning curve after playing in a gimmicky O. Take that away and you have a tremendously gifted QB with a skill-set like Favre.
Webb will likely settle in as a Rd 2 guy, but I'd take him over all but Mahomes.
And he certainly has the pedigree , I know people say he's a head case and all that if he can play like uncle Jim he'd be worth a 5th round pick imo
are the second comings of John Elway, Jim Kelly, Todd Blackledge and Tony Eason coming out this year? This is clearly NOT the year of the QB. And Marino was a victim of some unfounded whispers and gossip.
So my answer is NO.
I know the Giants have no shot at Sam Darnold..but imo he's the next great qb down the line from here. Giants will miss that opp.
AKA, polish a turd.
When it happens, it's luck, not acumen.
Video - ( New Window )
What we don't know - and I'd kill to - is the internal evaluation of his play. Are they perfectly OK going 3 more years of this, or slightly declined each year? Was he injured last year? Something off the field? If they are dissatisfied with his play - and they've dropped some hints - then QB is in play this year. If they're not - maybe next year (in what is considered a strong QB class).
I just don't see how you can evaluate a QB that has to put up with what Flowers is doing at LT. The internal clock is a fragile one.
Even if we don't get a great QB then, so what? We tank a year or two, and then get a shot at a franchise QB. There's a real issue with drafting a QB, and then having him rust on the bench. QB's don't get better on the bench, they have to play.
The wildcard here is Geno. If Geno has matured, and is willing to study hard under Eli and Coach McAdoo, he has the tools to be a very good QB under Coach McAdoo's system. I know this is a long shot, but our drafting strategy may change if Geno starts to fulfill his potential. We'll see.
Even if we don't get a great QB then, so what? We tank a year or two, and then get a shot at a franchise QB. There's a real issue with drafting a QB, and then having him rust on the bench. QB's don't get better on the bench, they have to play.
The wildcard here is Geno. If Geno has matured, and is willing to study hard under Eli and Coach McAdoo, he has the tools to be a very good QB under Coach McAdoo's system. I know this is a long shot, but our drafting strategy may change if Geno starts to fulfill his potential. We'll see.
Geno seems to fit the mold of todays Qbs better than Eli does
Next year the bar goes down a little bit more. I'd be a little more "desperate" for a qb than I am now.
Why not? You think we are so good at drafting that we would be wasting picks? Get a clue.
No better way to mark yourself as someone whose football opinions should be ignored than to tout how often you agree with Gene.